loc- clim-act: local acting on climate change impacts loyko... · climate change signs in rakhiv...
TRANSCRIPT
3rd Danube Participation Days
Working towards sustainable development: Civil Society, Local Actors and EU Strategies
Bratislava, November 2, 2016
Lesya LoykoAgency for sustainable development
of the Carpathian region “FORZA”, Ukraine
LOC- CLIM-ACT: Local acting on climate change impacts
WS 5: Turning Local Ideas Into Global Solutions
Content
• Climate change and its consequences-opinion
• Rakhiv district climate change adaptation strategy:
Current and expected climate change
Vulnerability of to the climate change
Strategy and adaptation measure
• Capacity building of local actors
• Global context and local response
Do you agree that climate change is reality?
- agree 79,6%- partially agree 18,5%- don’t agree 0%- don’t know 1,9%
Local governmentsPublic opinion
- agree77,8%- partially agree 17,0%- don’t agree 2,2%- don’t know 2,2%
Do you believe that human activityis a significant cause of climate change?
- Yes 86,3%- No 5,9%- Don’t know 7,8%
Local governmentsPublic
- Yes 75,6%- No 10,4%- Don’t know 10,4%
Do you think your town/village contributes to climate change?
Local governments
- Yes 59 ,2%- No 28,6%- Don’t know 12,2%
Local governments (majority – 87.2%):
What are the signs and effects of climate change already occurring in your city/village and in Ukraine?
Locally (keywords):shallowing of rivers and streams, a sharp change in water levelwarm winters, drought, warming, high summer t0
drying of spruce, drying of trees, drying of forestscatastrophic floods in 1998, 2001, 2010 natural floodsIn Ukraine (keywords):increase in the average t0, significant increase of t0 in summer
changing seasons / temperature conditions, more frequent changes in weather, more rain and dry daysfrequent floods, floodsforests dieback, decline of native spruce standsdehydration, shallowing of rivers, reducing rainfall
Mankind should not hide from problems
Objectiveincrease preparedness for local acting on emergencies
resulting from the climate change impacts at the local level
Rakhiv district on the map of Ukraine
Rakhiv district
General description of Rakhiv district
• Highest mountainous district of Ukraine• Ukrainian Carpathians, highest summit – Hoverla
mount - 2061 m• District area – 189 210 ha, incl.:Forest and forest covered area – 77.8% (spruce,
spruce-fir, beech-fir, beech)Agrarian land – 19.15 %Built up land – 1.24%Open land – 1.08%• Density of transport network:Railroad - 4.39 km / 100km2Automotive - 12.43 km / 100km2
• Population – 91 600 persons, incl: 39.63% -urban, 60.37% -rural
• Number of settlements – 32, incl.:cities– 1, towns – 3, villages - 28
• Density of population – 0.487 person/ha• Age structure - working age– 55.75%, up to 16 y. – 22.91%, pension age – 21.34%• Touristic and recreation potential• No natural gas • Heating - electric, wood, coal
General description of Rakhiv district
Key sectors of the economy
Climatic conditions
• Average annual t - 7.3º
• Average monthly t of warmest month – July -17.0º, coldest month – January - minus 4.3º. Absolute maximum - 36.3º in August, absolute minimum- minus 29.1º in January
• Average annual precipitation 1197 mm
Climate change signs in Rakhiv district (1991-2010)
Increase of average annual t0 by 0.7 0С relative to the climatic norm
Most significant increase of air t0 in January (1.50С) , August (1.60С) and July (1.50С)
Average yearly maximum t0 increased by 0.8 0С and the minimum – 0.5 0С
The largest growth of the maximal and minimal temperature observed in the summer – 2.00С and 1.00С, respectively
Essential increase in precipitation, autumn - by 20.9%, spring - by 16.8%. The largest increase in precipitation - in March (56%), September (37%) and October (38%)
Summer precipitation decrease by 14% in the warm season (May-September) and decrease in precipitation - increase of aridity
The expected climate change by 2050 and its consequences in Rakhiv district
For the balanced scenario - A1B in 2021-2050 increase in air temperature is expected throughout the year.
The average annual maximum and minimum temperatures will increase by 1.1-1.2 ° C.
Increase of the number of hot days over 20 and 25 ° C is expected respectively for 9 and 3 days.
Reduction of rains in the warm season at the background of increasing temperature will lead to lack of moisture and increased aridity in the region.
Growth of maximum precipitation intensity will cause an increase of extreme weather conditions, especially heavy rains and snowfalls.
Vulnerability of Rakhiv districtto negative climate impacts
Key:
Reduced precipitation in the warm season at the background of increasing temperatures will lead to lack of moisture and increased aridity.
Increase of extreme precipitations will result in increase of floodings
Increase in the number of extreme meteo- events and, along with other expected climate change impacts, its pressure on forestry, as key economic and environmental sector of the region.
* Forest as an important factor in resisting capacity for climate change.
Threats
Floods: Rakhiv area - most hydrated in the region
•The area is characterized by frequent floods of cloudburst origin, annually leading to formation of 8-10 floodings
•Floods increase erosion, formation of mudflows, avalanches and landslides, karsts
•21 settlement of 32 suffered from catastrophic floods in 1998
Landslides:
•Active landslides of total 7112 hectares (8% of the area), 179 hectares of potentially dangerous landslides are in settlements
Forest:
•Loss of forest productivity along with decreasing of other forest function
•Intensive spruce die back
Forest stand dieback
Places of existing land slides and potential floodings
It might be late when it happens
Strategic directions in adaptation
Readiness of population and all sectors of the district to potential consequences of floods (top priority)
Increase of water content during drought, including drinking water availability
Implementation of forest management activities aimed at adapting to climate change
Readiness of population and all sectors of the district to possible consequences of floods (top priority).
MeasuresDevelopment of action plans in case of floods and flooding at rural areas, including district plan of emergency response and making public and business aware of the action plan
Elaboration of flood protection measures and hydro-technical infrastructure
Preventive measures for the prevention and mitigation of floods (keeping clean ways under bridges, water drainage, cleaning ditches, etc.)
Public awareness of the possible consequences of flooding and possible measures to reduce flood.
Control over the gravel extraction (awareness, creating local control)
Water retention constructions on intermittent streams
Revitalization of forest skidding trails
Storage tanks/ ponds in the upper parts of rivers and streams
Protection of road infrastructure and energy networks
Automatic system for early warning and informing about the threat of flooding
River embankment enforcement
Increase of water content during drought and drinking water. Measures
2.1. Waterification (keeping water) measures at the slopes via small accumulative constructions (water source, water retention, moisture maintenance, water reservoirs for firefighting, increasing biodiversity, including rare species) and hydro-technical constructions for the accumulation of water (an alternative source of industrial water, recreation, fish ponds ...)
2.2. Water retention constructions on regular and temporary waterflows
2.4. Regeneration of water sources (clearing, cleaning)
2.5. Public awareness of the benefits and opportunities of rainwater accumulation (for watering, pets, toilet) near households, social institutions, mountain farms
2.6. Create drinking water reservoirs
2.7. Create intakes / water pipes
2.8. Educating the population - awareness raising measures
Trainings for local governments
WSs for teachers
Paris Climate Agreement enter into force on Nov 4, 2016
No chance to start tomorrow…
