““Living on Earth is expensive, but it Living on Earth is expensive, but it does include a free trip around the does include a free trip around the

sun”sun”AnonymousAnonymous

U6220: Environmental ChemistryU6220: Environmental Chemistryand Toxicologyand Toxicology

Thursday, June 02 2002Thursday, June 02 2002

Thursday, June 02 2005Thursday, June 02 2005

““Reality Provides us with facts so romantic that Reality Provides us with facts so romantic that imagination itself could add nothing else”imagination itself could add nothing else”

Jules Verne.Jules Verne.

How I got here, etc...How I got here, etc.....

• TecnolTecnolóógico de Monterrey (HS), Mexico Citygico de Monterrey (HS), Mexico City

• McGill University – B.Sc., MontrMcGill University – B.Sc., Montrééal (Canada)al (Canada)

• UniversitUniversitéé du Qu du Quéébec bec àà Montr Montrééal, M.Sc. & Ph.D.al, M.Sc. & Ph.D.

• University of Texas at Austin (MSI), Post-Doc (1998-1999)University of Texas at Austin (MSI), Post-Doc (1998-1999)

• Texas A&M Univ - Corpus Christi (1999-2002)Texas A&M Univ - Corpus Christi (1999-2002)

• Columbia (Biosphere) (2002-present)Columbia (Biosphere) (2002-present)

Dr. Patrick LouchouarnDr. Patrick Louchouarn

Who Am I?Who Am I?

““The (real) Life Aquatic”The (real) Life Aquatic”““The (real) Life Aquatic”The (real) Life Aquatic”

The story of rivers: from land to the seaThe story of rivers: from land to the seaThe story of rivers: from land to the seaThe story of rivers: from land to the sea

““Black Rain”Black Rain”““Black Rain”Black Rain”

Atmospheric chemistry and health impactAtmospheric chemistry and health impact (PAHs) (PAHs)

Radiatively important aerosols (direct and indirect impacts)Radiatively important aerosols (direct and indirect impacts)

“ “ShortShort-circuit” in the carbon cycle?-circuit” in the carbon cycle?

Why Study Black Carbon?Why Study Black Carbon?

Summer Schedule/SyllabusSummer Schedule/Syllabus

http://www.columbia.edu/itc/sipa/envp/louchouarn/courses/

And nowAnd nowAny Questions?Any Questions?

““Double standards in public policy? Double standards in public policy? Acknowledging the burden on science in Acknowledging the burden on science in

decision-makingdecision-making””

Patrick LouchouarnPatrick Louchouarn

Columbia UniversityColumbia University

““I’ll be so brief, I am already finished”I’ll be so brief, I am already finished”

DaliDali

OutlineOutline IntroductionIntroduction

• Addressing the “Grand Challenges in Environmental Addressing the “Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences”Sciences”

On common groundsOn common grounds• Defining and acknowledging (un)certainty in Defining and acknowledging (un)certainty in

assessing/managing environmental change: a discursive assessing/managing environmental change: a discursive approachapproach

• Defining risks and the role of experts in public Defining risks and the role of experts in public (environmental) policy(environmental) policy

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks• The role of education (of scientists and policymakers)The role of education (of scientists and policymakers)

Humanity’s Top Ten Problems for next 50 yearsHumanity’s Top Ten Problems for next 50 years

1.1. EnergyEnergy2.2. WaterWater3.3. FoodFood4.4. Environment Environment 5.5. PovertyPoverty6.6. Terrorism&WarTerrorism&War7.7. DiseaseDisease8.8. EducationEducation9.9. DemocracyDemocracy10.10. PopulationPopulation

Prof. Richard Smalley, 1996 Nobel Laureate (Chemistry)Prof. Richard Smalley, 1996 Nobel Laureate (Chemistry)

UN’s Millenium Development GoalsUN’s Millenium Development GoalsTask Force 1Task Force 1 on Poverty and Economic on Poverty and Economic Development Development

TF 2TF 2 on Hunger on Hunger

TF 3TF 3 on Education and Gender Equality on Education and Gender Equality

TF 4TF 4 on Child Health and Maternal Health on Child Health and Maternal Health

TF 5TF 5 on Major Diseases (HIV/AIDS, Malaria, TB) on Major Diseases (HIV/AIDS, Malaria, TB)

TF 6TF 6 on Environmental Sustainability on Environmental Sustainability

TF 7TF 7 on Water and Sanitation on Water and Sanitation

TF 8TF 8 on Improving the Lives of Slum Dwellers on Improving the Lives of Slum Dwellers

TF 9TF 9 on Open, Rule-Based Trading Systems on Open, Rule-Based Trading Systems

TF 10TF 10 on Science, Technology and Innovation on Science, Technology and Innovation

National Academy of ScienceNational Academy of Science

1.1. Biogeochemical Cycles (human perturbations)Biogeochemical Cycles (human perturbations)2.2. Biological DiversityBiological Diversity (ecological & functional importance) (ecological & functional importance)3.3. Climate Variability (increase precision and predictive capacity)Climate Variability (increase precision and predictive capacity)4.4. Hydrological ForecastingHydrological Forecasting (changes in resources and demands) (changes in resources and demands) 5.5. Infectious Diseases and the Environment Infectious Diseases and the Environment (ecological & (ecological &

evolutionary aspects of infectious diseases)evolutionary aspects of infectious diseases)6.6. Institutions and Resource Use (role of institutions in Institutions and Resource Use (role of institutions in

management/fate of natural resources)management/fate of natural resources)7.7. Land-Use DynamicsLand-Use Dynamics (anthropogenic impacts of land-use (anthropogenic impacts of land-use

change/dynamics)change/dynamics)8.8. Reinventing the Use of Materials (green chemistry-Reinventing the Use of Materials (green chemistry-

nanotechnology, recycling)nanotechnology, recycling)

““Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences” (2001)Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences” (2001)

National Academy of ScienceNational Academy of Science

6. Institutions and Resource Use6. Institutions and Resource Use Systematic Systematic understanding of the role of institutions in shaping understanding of the role of institutions in shaping

the use of natural resourcesthe use of natural resources (markets, legal and regulatory (markets, legal and regulatory structures at regional to international levels, collaborative structures at regional to international levels, collaborative resource governance, heterogeneous stakeholders and resource governance, heterogeneous stakeholders and management structures) management structures)

Elucidate internal and external conditions that affect institutions’ Elucidate internal and external conditions that affect institutions’ capacity for adaptive changecapacity for adaptive change! !

““Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences” (2001)Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences” (2001)

NAS accepts (unconsciously?) the role of science in shaping policyNAS accepts (unconsciously?) the role of science in shaping policy

Departure from common axiology and culture of science developed Departure from common axiology and culture of science developed since 19since 19thth Century and reinforced in mid-20 Century and reinforced in mid-20 thth Century Century

Science: The Endless Frontier (Science: The Endless Frontier (1945)1945)((Vannevar BushVannevar Bush - Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development - Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development))

Isolation of basic Science and the quest for knowledgeIsolation of basic Science and the quest for knowledge Implies a “Implies a “puritypurity” of the scientific process (” of the scientific process (independentindependent from the political from the political

process)process) Provides a service to society by “fueling” its progress (war against Provides a service to society by “fueling” its progress (war against

disease, National security, public welfare) disease, National security, public welfare) indirectly linked to the indirectly linked to the political processpolitical process

"New frontiers of the mind are before us, and if they are pioneered with the "New frontiers of the mind are before us, and if they are pioneered with the same vision, boldness, and drive with which we have waged this war we can same vision, boldness, and drive with which we have waged this war we can create a fuller and more fruitful employment and a fuller and more fruitful life."create a fuller and more fruitful employment and a fuller and more fruitful life."

Franklin D. Roosevelt - November 17, 1944Franklin D. Roosevelt - November 17, 1944

"Without scientific progress no amount of achievement in other directions can "Without scientific progress no amount of achievement in other directions can insure our health, prosperity, and security as a nation in the modern world."insure our health, prosperity, and security as a nation in the modern world."

V. BushV. Bush - 1945- 1945

Re-Thinking ScienceRe-Thinking Science((Helga NowotnyHelga Nowotny - Chairwoman of the EC’s European Research Advisory Board - Chairwoman of the EC’s European Research Advisory Board))

USAUSA: NRC’s report on scientific advisory committee (2004): “Political : NRC’s report on scientific advisory committee (2004): “Political considerations should not play a role in the process of deciding whom to appoint considerations should not play a role in the process of deciding whom to appoint to policy panels”to policy panels”

““But in fact politics is unavoidable in the empaneling process. The real question But in fact politics is unavoidable in the empaneling process. The real question is whether we want to openly confront this reality or allow it to play out in the is whether we want to openly confront this reality or allow it to play out in the proverbial backrooms of political decision making”. (proverbial backrooms of political decision making”. (R. Pielke Jr. 2005R. Pielke Jr. 2005))

EuropeEurope: “The old paradigm of scientific discovery “characterized by the : “The old paradigm of scientific discovery “characterized by the hegemony of disciplinary science,with its strong sense of an internal hierarchy hegemony of disciplinary science,with its strong sense of an internal hierarchy between the disciplines and driven by the autonomy of scientists and their between the disciplines and driven by the autonomy of scientists and their host institutions, the universities” is being superseded (but not replaced) by a host institutions, the universities” is being superseded (but not replaced) by a new paradigm of knowledge productionnew paradigm of knowledge production

“ “socially distributed, application-oriented, trans-disciplinary and subject to socially distributed, application-oriented, trans-disciplinary and subject to multiple accountabilities”. multiple accountabilities”.

Re-Thinking ScienceRe-Thinking Science’s “neutrality”:’s “neutrality”:The status of expertsThe status of experts

““As scientists debate the various sides of politicized issues, their As scientists debate the various sides of politicized issues, their involvement undermines the assumptions that have given experts their involvement undermines the assumptions that have given experts their power and the neutral arbiter of truth”power and the neutral arbiter of truth” ( (S. Bocking, “Nature’s Experts: Science, S. Bocking, “Nature’s Experts: Science,

Politics, and the Environment” Rutgers Univ. Press, 2004Politics, and the Environment” Rutgers Univ. Press, 2004))

““By participating in political debates as advocates for (special) interests, By participating in political debates as advocates for (special) interests, scientitst are reducing their claim to authority”.scientitst are reducing their claim to authority”. ( (R. Pielke Jr. “A part but apart R. Pielke Jr. “A part but apart

from politics”, Nature 2005from politics”, Nature 2005))

The “The “neutralityneutrality” of science in societal (and political) debates is still ” of science in societal (and political) debates is still viewed asviewed as ultimate quality of this (social) knowledge-production activityultimate quality of this (social) knowledge-production activity a warranty for reliability and legitimacy of this knowledgea warranty for reliability and legitimacy of this knowledge

Environmental sciences:Environmental sciences:a value-laden and mediatized fielda value-laden and mediatized field

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Scientists as Activists and the Legitimacy of ScienceScientists as Activists and the Legitimacy of Science““The Administration and the ScientistThe Administration and the Scientist””Jim Hansen (2005): I have been told by a high government official that I Jim Hansen (2005): I have been told by a high government official that I should not talk about “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with climate, should not talk about “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with climate, The opinions and interpretations that I express today are my personal views. I The opinions and interpretations that I express today are my personal views. I am a government employee, but I am on leave today, I travel here at my am a government employee, but I am on leave today, I travel here at my expense, and expense, and I speak as a private citizenI speak as a private citizen […]. […]. I hope to convince you that I I hope to convince you that I amamknowledgeable about climate change and that the information I provide knowledgeable about climate change and that the information I provide warrants your considerationwarrants your consideration, but the views that I present have no official , but the views that I present have no official sanction.sanction.

““The Corporation and the ScientistThe Corporation and the Scientist””Hydro-Quebec (2002): “For boreal reservoirs, IRN quotes mainly Eric Hydro-Quebec (2002): “For boreal reservoirs, IRN quotes mainly Eric Duchemin who is Duchemin who is an environmental activistan environmental activist of the Union Québécoise pour la of the Union Québécoise pour la Conservation de la Nature, a Canadian environmental group that has Conservation de la Nature, a Canadian environmental group that has opposed any hydro project in the last 15 years”opposed any hydro project in the last 15 years”

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Environmental science: Environmental science: Decision making in the face of (un)certaintyDecision making in the face of (un)certainty

The acceptance of a valid definition (and role) of uncertainty The acceptance of a valid definition (and role) of uncertainty in science is not as critical as clearing the confusion that in science is not as critical as clearing the confusion that arises when science “arises when science “argues with itselfargues with itself”. ”.

When people hold a strong idea that science is somewhat When people hold a strong idea that science is somewhat certain and predictable, then a strong puzzlement arises certain and predictable, then a strong puzzlement arises when scientists have more than one answer for an issue and when scientists have more than one answer for an issue and disagree among themselves.disagree among themselves.

The power (and weight) of metaphorsThe power (and weight) of metaphors The case of the “Hockey Stick” The case of the “Hockey Stick”

When the strongest symbolism becomes a confusing notionWhen the strongest symbolism becomes a confusing notion

““It seems that metaphors in science carry a greater burden then in It seems that metaphors in science carry a greater burden then in metaphors of literature or history”. metaphors of literature or history”. Alan Lightman (2004 - A sense of the Alan Lightman (2004 - A sense of the mysterious: Science and the human spirit)mysterious: Science and the human spirit)

A. Moberg et al. (2005) NatureA. Moberg et al. (2005) Nature

Critics say we shouldn’t’ act on the Kyoto protocol or even Critics say we shouldn’t’ act on the Kyoto protocol or even curb GHG emissions before we obtain confirmation of climate curb GHG emissions before we obtain confirmation of climate change from “change from “sound sciencesound science””

Climate of (un)certainty…Climate of (un)certainty…

Hansen, J. 2004 (2004) Defusing the global warming time bomb, Scientific American, 290, 68-77.

““Soundness” of science is defined in terms of perceived (un)certaintySoundness” of science is defined in terms of perceived (un)certainty

1)1) ForcingsForcings

Taking the forcings at face valueTaking the forcings at face value

What about science (un)certainty?What about science (un)certainty?

FCCC FCCC vs.vs. IPCC IPCC The politicization of (un)certaintyThe politicization of (un)certainty

The The FCCC definition of climate changeFCCC definition of climate change requires detection and requires detection and attribution of climate change leading to attribution of climate change leading to "dangerous interference”"dangerous interference”

There is There is NO CONSENSUSNO CONSENSUS on the definition of Climate change, let on the definition of Climate change, let alone on what constitutes alone on what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”“dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate system (with the climate system (R. Pielke Jr. (2004). What is climate change? R. Pielke Jr. (2004). What is climate change? Issues in Issues in

Science & TechnologyScience & Technology. Jul. 9. Jul. 9).).

Minimizes the need for decarbonization of the energy system and Minimizes the need for decarbonization of the energy system and for the reduction of human and environmental vulnerability to for the reduction of human and environmental vulnerability to climateclimate

FCCC disregards adaptive measures and will only consider FCCC disregards adaptive measures and will only consider mitigation under strong scientific consensus. mitigation under strong scientific consensus. But there IS But there IS scientific scientific consensusconsensus !!

The politicization of (un)certaintyThe politicization of (un)certainty

IPCC notes that under its definition of climate change, IPCC notes that under its definition of climate change, effective action requires "decisionmaking under effective action requires "decisionmaking under uncertainty” uncertainty”

But much of the But much of the uncertaintyuncertainty in climate change scenarios in climate change scenarios is related to non-science issuesis related to non-science issues (demographics, (demographics, economy, energy production, innovative technology economy, energy production, innovative technology diffusion)diffusion)

““Decisionmaking under uncertainty” is a challenge Decisionmaking under uncertainty” is a challenge familiar to decisionmakers and research communities in familiar to decisionmakers and research communities in social sciencessocial sciences

Social Security:Social Security:– Social Security is projected to start paying out Social Security is projected to start paying out

more in benefits than it collects in taxes in more in benefits than it collects in taxes in 20182018

– Can pay full promised benefits only until 2042 Can pay full promised benefits only until 2042 (solvent until 2052)(solvent until 2052)

How can solvency be restored to Social How can solvency be restored to Social Security?Security?– massive tax increasesmassive tax increases– massive benefit cutsmassive benefit cuts– Investment of payroll taxes in privatized Investment of payroll taxes in privatized

accountsaccounts

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““Making prediction is very difficult, Making prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” especially about the future”

Casey StengelCasey Stengel

Process of Public Environmental PolicyProcess of Public Environmental Policy((S. Cohen, 2001S. Cohen, 2001))

Environmental policy Environmental policy Closely connected to issues of Closely connected to issues of economical development and income (wealth) distribution economical development and income (wealth) distribution

Environmental policy thus appears as a set of individual and Environmental policy thus appears as a set of individual and collective patterns of choices about resource deployment collective patterns of choices about resource deployment and management and management Social learning Social learning

The assignment and distribution of benefits and costs The assignment and distribution of benefits and costs creates political conflicts that both impede and distort social creates political conflicts that both impede and distort social learning learning Filters on information flow Filters on information flow

Process of Public Environmental PolicyProcess of Public Environmental Policy

Eventually, decisions happenEventually, decisions happen Clean Water and Clean Air Acts, Superfund Program.Clean Water and Clean Air Acts, Superfund Program.

However, this process becomes highly complex when it However, this process becomes highly complex when it deals with deep uncertainty with respect to the behavior of deals with deep uncertainty with respect to the behavior of non-linear systems (i.e. ecosystems, climate, etc)non-linear systems (i.e. ecosystems, climate, etc)

Process of environmental policy is characterized by Process of environmental policy is characterized by disjointed-disjointed-incrementalincremental steps and steps and heterogeneousheterogeneous structures structures Large Large number of separated centersnumber of separated centers

Process of Public Environmental PolicyProcess of Public Environmental Policy

Decision models under deep uncertainty DO exist:Decision models under deep uncertainty DO exist: Scenario-Based Planning (discursive process)Scenario-Based Planning (discursive process)

Help groups of individuals reach consensus on strategies even Help groups of individuals reach consensus on strategies even when members cannot agree on the most likely future (Does when members cannot agree on the most likely future (Does not systematically correct for fallacies in human reasoning)not systematically correct for fallacies in human reasoning)

Computer Assisted Reasoning (inductive process) Computer Assisted Reasoning (inductive process) Determination of robust regions (domains of choices)Determination of robust regions (domains of choices) Market-based (diffusion of innovative technology)Market-based (diffusion of innovative technology)

Lempert R.J. (2002)Lempert R.J. (2002) and and Robalino D.A. and Lempert R.J. (2000)Robalino D.A. and Lempert R.J. (2000)

Accept null hypothesis

Reject null hypothesis

State of Nature

Global Change does not occur

Correct Conclusion Type I Error

Global Change is real

Type II Error Correct Conclusion

Decision in the face of (un)certaintyDecision in the face of (un)certaintyPrecautionary PrinciplePrecautionary Principle

Its about minimizing potential deleterious impacts in face of Its about minimizing potential deleterious impacts in face of incomplete information (managing risk)incomplete information (managing risk)

Risk avoiders try to minimize the potential for “Risk avoiders try to minimize the potential for “misfortunes of the misfortunes of the second kindsecond kind” (“accept something they should have rejected” - ” (“accept something they should have rejected” - Type II errors )Type II errors )

By doing so, they increase the potential for “By doing so, they increase the potential for “misfortunes of the misfortunes of the first kindfirst kind” (“reject something they should have accepted” - Type I ” (“reject something they should have accepted” - Type I errors )errors )

HHoo

HH11

Precaution Precaution vs.vs. Resilience Resilience

Europe has moved strongly in favor of Europe has moved strongly in favor of Precautionary Precautionary PrinciplePrinciple (Climate Change, GMOs) (Climate Change, GMOs)

U.S. seems more inclined towards U.S. seems more inclined towards Resilience Principle Resilience Principle ((c.f. Wildavski): building capacity (adaptations)c.f. Wildavski): building capacity (adaptations)

To give the critics of PP some credit, this principle is To give the critics of PP some credit, this principle is rather loose on the definition of science (un)certaintyrather loose on the definition of science (un)certainty

However, we fail to recognize that the discussion of However, we fail to recognize that the discussion of (un)certainty is one of (un)certainty is one of statistical likelihood of any event statistical likelihood of any event occurringoccurring

Risk Assessment/ManagementRisk Assessment/Management And, not all risks are the same!And, not all risks are the same!

““when we have two options for actions where the same unwelcome event will occur when we have two options for actions where the same unwelcome event will occur with different probability, the conclusion for a decision under uncertainty is clear: each with different probability, the conclusion for a decision under uncertainty is clear: each rationally thinking human being would choose the option for action with the lower rationally thinking human being would choose the option for action with the lower probability of occurrence” probability of occurrence” (Klinke A. and Renn O. 2001)(Klinke A. and Renn O. 2001)

Risk Assessment/ManagementRisk Assessment/Management Not all risks are the same! Not all risks are the same!

Damocles

Typical of technological risk (extent of damage inversely proportional to probability Typical of technological risk (extent of damage inversely proportional to probability of occurrence): High damage - Low probability of occurrence of occurrence): High damage - Low probability of occurrence

High persistency!High persistency! Nuclear disaster, dam failure, chemical accidentNuclear disaster, dam failure, chemical accident

Risk Assessment/ManagementRisk Assessment/Management

Pythia

Large uncertainty in probability of occurrence, extent and cause of damageLarge uncertainty in probability of occurrence, extent and cause of damage

High persistency!High persistency! Human intervention in ecosystems (dams, artificial groundwater recharge)Human intervention in ecosystems (dams, artificial groundwater recharge) GHG and CFC releasesGHG and CFC releases

Damocles

Not all risks are the same! Not all risks are the same!

Risk Assessment/ManagementRisk Assessment/Management Not all risks are the same! Not all risks are the same!

Pythia

Cassandra

Damocles

ParadoxParadox: Probability of occurrence is known as well as extent of damage : Probability of occurrence is known as well as extent of damage (confidence level is low)(confidence level is low)

Long latency which generates Long latency which generates little mobilizationlittle mobilization Anthropogenic climate changeAnthropogenic climate change Loss of biodiversityLoss of biodiversity

Risk Assessment/ManagementRisk Assessment/Management Not all risks are the same!Not all risks are the same! Neither is their management. Neither is their management.

(Klinke A. and Renn O. 2001)(Klinke A. and Renn O. 2001)

Baromètre IRSN 2004Baromètre IRSN 2004Risk perception in FranceRisk perception in France

Social issues amount > 50%Social issues amount > 50%

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Environmental concerns ~13%Environmental concerns ~13%

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Perception of role and acceptance of expertsPerception of role and acceptance of experts

Of a paradigm of Science EducationOf a paradigm of Science Education Congressman Vernon J. EhlersCongressman Vernon J. Ehlers (2001) (2001)

Unlocking Our Future: Towards a New National Science PolicyUnlocking Our Future: Towards a New National Science Policy

“ “US science policy is outdated; the American public does US science policy is outdated; the American public does not understand science or its practice; not understand science or its practice; US scientists are US scientists are not sufficiently engaged in the political processnot sufficiently engaged in the political process””

The majority of jobs in the 21The majority of jobs in the 21stst Century will depend on Century will depend on scientific and technical expertise.scientific and technical expertise.

Science curricula should be inquiry-based and involve Science curricula should be inquiry-based and involve hands-on (minds-on)hands-on (minds-on) experimentation so “children” experimentation so “children” can experience the thrill of learning science.can experience the thrill of learning science.

Science (Environmental) EducationScience (Environmental) EducationOf Scaffolding and Authentic InquiryOf Scaffolding and Authentic Inquiry

Feedbackto learner

Assessment

LearningObjectives

InformationTechnologyRepresentations

SimulationsInformation Managmt

Communication

Authentic InquiryNature of Science

Scientific knowledgeScientific models

Complex data setsCommunityLearning

Environments

AssessmentCentered

KnowledgeCentered

LearnerCentered

Science of LearningConstruction of Meaning

Mental Models

Learning Outcomes

Instructionalmaterials

Educational Theory & PedagogyActive Learning that accounts for

Motivations, preconceptions, prior knowledge,cognitive skills, metacognition, context,

And social interactions

Designs of effective learning environments followingThe How People Learn (NAS, 2001) Framework

Mental models (metaphors)Mental models (metaphors) Physical modelsPhysical models Computer simulations/Mathematical Computer simulations/Mathematical

modelsmodels Visualization of complex real data Visualization of complex real data

setssets

Humanity’s Top Ten Problems for next 50 yearsHumanity’s Top Ten Problems for next 50 years

1.1. EnergyEnergy2.2. WaterWater3.3. FoodFood4.4. Environment Environment 5.5. PovertyPoverty6.6. Terrorism & WarTerrorism & War7.7. DiseaseDisease8.8. EducationEducation9.9. DemocracyDemocracy10.10. PopulationPopulation

TodayToday the world runs on ~14 terawatts of power, (220 10 the world runs on ~14 terawatts of power, (220 1066 barrels of oil/day)barrels of oil/day)20502050: we’ll need 28 terawatts (>440 10: we’ll need 28 terawatts (>440 1066 barrels of oil/day) barrels of oil/day)

Prof. Richard Smalley, 1996 Nobel Prize Laureate (Chemistry)Prof. Richard Smalley, 1996 Nobel Prize Laureate (Chemistry)

Where’s the Sputnik generation of the 21Where’s the Sputnik generation of the 21stst Century? Century?

Ph.D. Degrees in Physics

as a Percentage of GDP

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

GDP is expressed in constant 1996 dollars (in million)

Source: American Institute of Physics & National Science Board,

Science and Engineering Indicators, 2002.

The Sputnik Generation

Social/political/ethical (economical) cause for intellectual mobilizationSocial/political/ethical (economical) cause for intellectual mobilization

For Science, Against ScientismFor Science, Against Scientism

Our (apparent) social insistence to preserve the idea of Our (apparent) social insistence to preserve the idea of scientismscientism as the as the modus operandimodus operandi of science is paradoxically what of science is paradoxically what delegitimizes science:delegitimizes science:

Supports claims from (nihilistic) relativists that there exists no Supports claims from (nihilistic) relativists that there exists no universal truth and that all knowledge assertions are subjectiveuniversal truth and that all knowledge assertions are subjective

More importantly, generates the perception that any social More importantly, generates the perception that any social implication on the part of scientists falsifies the scientific process implication on the part of scientists falsifies the scientific process removes it from its purity and therefore undermines its removes it from its purity and therefore undermines its reliability/credibilityreliability/credibility

ScientismScientism: The claim that science is disinterested and extra-: The claim that science is disinterested and extra-social, that its truth claims are self-sustaining without reference social, that its truth claims are self-sustaining without reference to philosophical assertions, and that science represents the only to philosophical assertions, and that science represents the only legitimate mode of knowledge” legitimate mode of knowledge” ((I. Wallerstein, 2004I. Wallerstein, 2004))

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks Knowledge production: Participatory processKnowledge production: Participatory process

““Reliable knowledge can become socially robust only if society Reliable knowledge can become socially robust only if society perceives the process of knowledge production to be perceives the process of knowledge production to be participativeparticipative. This, . This, in turn, depends upon a in turn, depends upon a reciprocityreciprocity in which the public understands how in which the public understands how

science works, but, equally, science understands how the public works”science works, but, equally, science understands how the public works” Nowotny et al. (2003) “Nowotny et al. (2003) “Mode 2 revisited: the New production of Knowledge”, Minerva.Mode 2 revisited: the New production of Knowledge”, Minerva.

Regulatory science can work only within the framework Regulatory science can work only within the framework of an ethically defensible and socially acceptable of an ethically defensible and socially acceptable distribution of burdens of proofdistribution of burdens of proof

(H. van den Belt and B. Gremmen (2002) Between precautionary principle and “sound (H. van den Belt and B. Gremmen (2002) Between precautionary principle and “sound science”: Distributing the burdens of proof. science”: Distributing the burdens of proof. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Journal of Agricultural and Environmental EthicsEthics. 15: 103-122).. 15: 103-122).

Thank you!Thank you!

““Nothing is more dangerous than an idea, when Nothing is more dangerous than an idea, when it’s the only one you have”it’s the only one you have”

Alain (Emile Chartier)Alain (Emile Chartier)

““You are educated when you have the ability to You are educated when you have the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your listen to almost anything without losing your temper or self-confidence”temper or self-confidence”

Robert FrostRobert Frost