list of nominations connecting user needs with weather research and forecasts rebecca e. morss...
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![Page 1: List of Nominations Connecting User Needs with Weather Research and Forecasts Rebecca E. Morss National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado,](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070306/5518d0ef55034638098b5076/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
List of Nominations List of Nominations
Connecting User Needs with Weather Research and Forecasts
Rebecca E. Morss
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado, USA
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Overall Goals
• Understand:– Weather forecasting needs of current and potential users
of forecasts– How people do and could incorporate weather forecasts
into decision-making
• Connect this understanding with weather research and forecasts:– Compare benefits of different forecast improvements– Work towards improving forecasts in ways that are likely
to greatly benefit society – And so on …
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Projects
• Assessing the needs of users of QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts)
• Use of weather information by QPF forecasters and users during PACJET-2001
• Influence of weather and climate variability on evaluations of flood risk
• Superstorm 1993: A case scenario approach for integrating meteorological and societal research
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Systematically, comprehensively assess the needs of users of QPF
• Improving QPF has been identified as a national (and international) priority
• QPF can be improved in a number of wayse.g., lead time, accuracy, spatial / temporal resolution,
deterministically or probabilistically
• Achieving different QPF improvements can require different research and operational efforts
Which QPF improvements should we invest in, to most benefit society?
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Assessing the needs of users of QPF
Focus for this pilot project:
• Warm season (approx. May - September)
• Lead time: minutes - days
• Users: Colorado Front Range (including Denver, Boulder) and surrounding areas
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To systematically investigate how QPFs are and could be used, across society:
• Identify (all) major users of QPF
• Review and synthesize relevant literature
• Interview “stakeholders”
• Survey selected user communities
Methodology
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Sectors of Potential QPF Users
• Flood / landslide warning, control, and response • Water supply and reservoir management• Hydropower generation and power plant cooling• Environmental quality• Agriculture• Livestock production• Recreation / leisure • Fire management
• Transportation• Construction• Mining• Public
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Literature Review• Purpose:
– Develop a baseline knowledge of precipitation impacts and QPF use in each sector
– Identify an appropriate mix of interviewees– Construct appropriate interview questions
• Includes:– Peer-reviewed literature (meteorology, hydrology, etc.) – Existing studies of use and value of weather and climate
information– Conference proceedings – Instructional materials – Overview documents – Web searches
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Stakeholder Interviews
• Producers of QPF e.g., U.S. National Weather Service forecasters
private sector forecasters
• Intermediariese.g., U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (River Sys & Met
group)agricultural extension services
• Users of QPF in each sectorindividuals, e.g., flood warning personnelgroup representatives, e.g., farming associations
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Stakeholder Interviews• Purpose:
– To develop a more complete, more detailed understanding of current and potential QPF use in each sector
– To test hypotheses and modify knowledge developed from the literature review and previous interviews
• Interviewees selected to represent a range of perspectives, rather than to obtain a statistically representative sample
– If necessary, follow up with a mail/e-mail survey
• Conducted in this order (to the extent possible) to help identify interviewees and refine questions for subsequent interviews
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Examples of possible uses of results
• Develop user-relevant measures of forecast quality
• Estimate costs of precipitation-related events to society
• Estimate socioeconomic value of different forecasts
• Compare costs and benefits of different forecasting system improvements
• Identify subsectors, impacts, event types, forecast types, etc. to study in greater detail
• Develop societally beneficial forecast products and decision tools
• Develop the research programs required to generate these products and tools
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Projects
• Assessing the needs of users of QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts)
• Use of weather information by QPF forecasters and users during PACJET-2001
• Influence of weather and climate variability on evaluations of flood risk
• Superstorm 1993: A case scenario approach for integrating meteorological and societal research
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Use of weather information by QPF forecasters and users during PACJET-2001
• Pacific Land-falling Jets Experiment, Jan – Feb 2001• Goal: to improve short-term winter weather forecasts on
the U.S. West Coast, with an emphasis on QPF
• To explore use of PACJET-related observations and forecasts:
– Interviewed and observed National Weather Service meteorological and hydrological forecasters
– Interviewed several emergency managers and water resource personnel in California
• Results: Maps of use of information in decision-making
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Influence of weather and climate variability on evaluations of flood risk
• Evaluations of flood risk (e.g., floodplain maps) are based on estimates of future precipitation and flood discharge
• In mountainous regions (e.g., Colorado Front Range), such estimates are especially uncertain because:
– Precipitation tends to vary significantly (in space & time)
– Watersheds tend to be small and to respond rapidly
– Available data is insufficient to account for this variability
• Goal: To provide weather / climate information and analysis techniques that are useful in flood risk evaluations
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• On 12-15 March 1993, a major winter storm affected 26 eastern U.S. states, Cuba, and eastern Canada
• “Superstorm 1993” caused, in U.S.: approximately 270 deaths, over $2 billion in property damage, power outages, major transportation delays, economic disruption, etc.
However, many of these impacts are “unavoidable”
• Using Superstorm 1993 as a focusing case, explore
– Potential for improving different types of forecasts of such storms (e.g., increase lead time, ensemble forecasts)
– Potential value of such improvements to society
Superstorm 1993: Integrating meteorological and societal research
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