Limpopo Basin Focal Project –P d R h PlProposed Research Plans

Douglas J. Merrey, Project Leader, FANRPAN, & Litha Magingxa, Limpopo FANRPAN, & Litha Magingxa, Limpopo Basin Coordinator, ARC-South AfricaCali, Colombia, 1-5 February 2008Ca , Co o b a, 5 eb ua y 008

O iOverview1 Introducing the Limpopo River 1. Introducing the Limpopo River

Basin-[cut to save time]2. The LBFP Team2. The LBFP Team3. Goals and Objectives4. Approach of the LBFP: Research4. Approach of the LBFP: Research5. Approach of the LBFP: Stakeholder

Consultations6. Expected products7. Anticipated Outcomes and Impacts

The Team-1The Team 1

FANRPAN and ARC joint ventureFANRPAN and ARC joint ventureARC leads Water Availability and Knowledge Management WPsFANRPAN leads Institutions and Interventions WP FANRPAN leads Institutions and Interventions WP and overall projectClose working relationship with Basin Coordinator

IWMI and GWP SA regional partnersIWMI and GWP-SA regional partnersIWMI Leads Water Productivity WP and is associated with +/- 8 CPWF projects in basinGWP d FANRPAN ill l d t k h ld GWP and FANRPAN will co-lead stakeholder consultations

University of Malawi—leads Poverty Analysis WP

Th T 2The Team-2National universities: Botswana, Eduardo M dl (UEM M bi ) P t i Li Mondlane (UEM, Mozambique), Pretoria, Limpopo [new], ZimbabweMozambique Institute of Agricultural Research (IIAM)(IIAM)

UEM & IIAM have on-going CPWF & other projects in LimpopoU of Botswana has ongoing hydrology workP t i Li Zi b b h i i l Pretoria, Limpopo, Zimbabwe have ongoing social science research in Limpopo

Two independent consultants (one was leader of CP 47))

Team is large and diverse, but highly experienced and professionalWill be complemented by students (10% of the total

budget)budget)

GoalsGoals

To identify agricultural water To identify agricultural water interventions whose implementation will reduce poverty and enhance food will reduce poverty and enhance food, health, and environmental security in the Limpopo Basin and beyondp p yTo identify gaps in knowledge about agricultural water management g goptions in the basin requiring further research

Objectives—To achieve the goalsObjectives To achieve the goals

To identify, organize, synthesize and make y g ywidely available existing data and knowledge on the Limpopo BasinTo selectively fill gaps in knowledge where

ibl th h h t t t d t dipossible through short targeted studiesTo prepare a register of Basin Stakeholders and scientists as a basis for creating a “network map” and dynamic scientific “community of map” and dynamic scientific “community of practice”Drawing on this knowledge base, identify specific “intervention packages” for reducing poverty intervention packages for reducing poverty through agricultural water management improvements

Key AssumptionsKey AssumptionsEfficacy of a “basin” perspective as opposed to sectoral national etcsectoral, national, etc

River basins as natural “systems” [but not social systems]Multiple scales: farm, micro-watershed, sub-basin,

h l b iwhole basinInterdisciplinary systems perspective

Low agricultural water productivity is characteristic and a major factor underlying characteristic, and a major factor underlying poverty

Is it only ‘productivity’ or is it also ‘access’?Our proposal emphasized access

Agricultural water management is an entry point for reducing poverty

But evidence that reforming water institutions without reference to land reform does not workwithout reference to land reform does not work

R h A h G lResearch Approach-General

M k f i i d bMake use of existing data basesEspecially detailed for RSA (ARC, IWMI)IWMI has considerable data but questions on IWMI has considerable data but questions on how to access

Build on outputs from CPWF and other i h j ton-going research projects

Not clear how to get access to CPWF Project outputs

Use students strategically to fill gaps, provide analytical support

WP 2 A il bilit & A 1WP 2-Availability & Access-1Highly variable rainfall Highly variable rainfall with frequent extreme eventsMuch of basin—rain fed 100

120

140

160

180

mm

)

agriculture is very riskyBotswana, South Africa—considerable development for mining 0

20

40

60

80

Tota

l (

development for mining, industry, urban useImpacts of climate change—more extreme

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Rainfall Penman-Monteith Potential Evapotransiration 50% PE

fg

events, changes in timing, & lower average rainfall

Mean Monthly Rainfall and Mean Monthly Potential Evapotranspiration for Evapotranspiration for the Olifants Catchment–McCartney et al. 2004

WP 2 A il bilit & A 2WP 2-Availability & Access-2Will update existing Pitman ModelBuild on work already done by ARC, Univ. of Botswana, & countriesO t tOutputs:

Updated model and training in useGIS-based water availability and (?) GIS based water availability and (?) hydronomic zone maps; An irrigation and rainfed agriculture risk assessment [indications of huge trade offs of assessment [indications of huge trade offs of irrigated area and risk];Water accounting graphs and diagramsS i tifi tScientific papers, etc.

WP 1 P t A l i 1WP 1 Poverty Analysis-1

Changes in Water Poverty Index, 1994-2005, in the Olifants Catchment – Magagula et al 2006

WP 1 P t A l i 2WP 1 Poverty Analysis-2If we can find data:

H d t i d P t Li P t Head count index, Poverty Line, Poverty GapGini Coefficient (measure of inequality)Water Poverty IndexWater Poverty IndexProbability of being poor in a given year—probit analysis

Need to link poverty maps with water Need to link poverty maps with water availability—likely feasible in some areas but not universally for the basin

Will make use of existing case studies, g ,qualitative data and try to use students to add to this

Example: use household typologies done in 3 sites over 2 3 seasons under CP 30 [wetlands sites over 2-3 seasons under CP 30 [wetlands and livelihoods]

Gini Coefficient: Distribution of Estimated Direct and Indirect Rural Water Use in the Olifants-Cullis & van Koppen

90%100%

Use

(%)

30%40%50%60%70%80%

ge o

f Tot

al R

ural

U

0%10%20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Percentage of Rural Households (%)

Perc

enta

Line of Equality Direct Water Use Indirect Use

Planned outputs include:•Water-poverty maps and data bases (household types, gender) linked to water availability, agro-ecological systems, etc•Scientific report on water-poverty relationships in the basin •Scientific report on water poverty relationships in the basin, as a contribution to intervention packages

WP 3 W t P d ti it 1WP 3 Water Productivity-1IWMI will use existing datasets, e.g., Olifants catchment dataset catchment dataset

RS datasets (global and local)Spatial and temporal variability of use & usersUses, users (WARMS database), and their distributionH d ologi al di e sions s a t al seHydrological – diversions vs actual use

WEAP - Water Evaluation And Planning modeling –results for the OlifantsSynthesis of CPWF experienceMake opportunistic use of smaller data bases from the basin (and WARMS for Limpopo Water Management Area)

A key issue is other uses have far higher $/drop A key issue is other uses have far higher $/drop returns—can we use Prasad et al. 2006 methodology in other parts of the basin?

What is CPWF position?—it emphasized “agricultural” water productivity, but this may not be as critical to p y, ypoverty reduction and development in RSA and Botswana

W t P d ti it 2Water Productivity-2

Water Productivity by Sector in the OlifantsBasin —Prasad et al. 2006

W t P d ti it O t tWater Productivity--Outputs

A t f t d ti it Assessment of water productivity for main agricultural systemsMaps and other products from Maps and other products from quantitative analysisAnalysis of opportunities for Analysis of opportunities for improving water productivityAnalysis of opportunities to reduce y pppoverty through enhanced water productivity

WP 4 Institutional Analysis:Working Hypotheses

Outcomes of any interventions will d d th li d i tit ti l depend on the policy and institutional environment

Comprehensive Assessment Chapter 5Si l di i l i t ti Single-dimensional interventions are inadequate—need practical packages of interventions including institutional & policy innovationspolicy innovationsIn the Limpopo Basin, lack of access to reliable water supply is a more important cause of poverty than is low cause of poverty than is low productivity—especially for women

Cullis & van Koppen—gini coefficient for water access in Olifants is 0 96access in Olifants is 0.96

Analytical frameworkAnalytical framework

I tit ti l A l i O t tInstitutional Analysis--Outputs1 An analytical overview of laws policies institutions 1. An analytical overview of laws, policies, institutions

(informal as well as formal) and interventions currently being implemented or under consideration in the basin or through SADC; A i t f t k h ld d i tit ti i th 2. An inventory of stakeholders and institutions in the basin as a basis for the network map (led by Knowledge Base group);

3. An issues report to guide the scoping phase p g p g presearch;

4. Interdisciplinary case studies of selected promising interventions, especially institutional innovations; andand

5. Scientific papers.Important: Engagement with stakeholders from

‘top to bottom’ will be critical for success!

WP 5 I t tiWP 5 Interventions

fDefinition: Human action that significantly changes or contributes to: water availability access and to: water availability, access and productivity

Conceived as intervention “packages ” Conceived as intervention packages, not single-dimensional

R hi t t St k h ldReaching out to Stakeholders

R4D l hi h i i R4D means we must place high priority on application, impact of our work

Impact Pathways; Network modelsImpact Pathways; Network models

Stakeholders--Large number, wide diversity, at multiple levels

Communications through multiple media in addition to consultations

All project partners have complementary All project partners have complementary strengths in terms of stakeholder relationships—need to build on theseFANRPAN and GWP-SA will lead

Interventionsinventoryinventory

Availability Productivity AccessAvailability Productivity Access

1. Infrastructure 1.11.21 3

1.11.21 3

1.11.2

2. Technology

1.3

2.12.22.3

2.12.22.3

1.3 1.3

2.12.22.3

3. Policies&Institutions

2.3

3.13.23.3

3.13.23.3

3.13.23.3

4. New Knowledge

4.14.24.3

4.14.24.3

4.14.24.3

5.

WP 5 Interventions: OUTPUTSWP 5 Interventions: OUTPUTS

Output 1: A list of potential significant p p gintervention packages for the basin

Output 2: Qualitative and quantitative analysis Output 2: Qualitative and quantitative analysis of likely impacts on water use and productivity

Output 3: Strategic interventions for the basinOutput 3: Strategic interventions for the basin

Output 4: Policy briefs

Strategic interventions for the basinStrategic interventions for the basin

Identif h pothesi ed inte ention 1. Identify hypothesized intervention packages which are appropriate

2 Test hypotheses through consultations 2. Test hypotheses through consultations with key stakeholders

3. Assess these hypothesized packages yp p gthrough case studies

4. Define assessment criteria and target l ti lt ith t k h ldpopulation, consult with stakeholders

at various levels5 Learn experiences from other BFPs5. Learn experiences from other BFPs.

STAKEHOLDER MAPPING

FANRPANNetwork of FANR government, civil society, research institutions in 12 countries—regional (e.g., SADC, COMESA) & nationalNational “nodes” convene policy dialogues, promote p y g , ppolicy researchEspecially strong in agriculture sector

GWP-SAN t k f t i t d i tit ti t Network of water-oriented institutions: government, civil society; part of global network; close links to Waternet, SADC Water DivisionStrong on local civil society links as wellCountry water Partnerships—convene stakeholder dialoguesEspecially strong in water resources and services sectors

We will build on these networks and those of other partners

WP 6 Knowledge ManagementWP 6 Knowledge ManagementSupports other WPsF ilit t t d t d i f ti ( ti l Facilitates access to data and information (spatial and non-spatial)

Management of meta-data base, web site [in IDIS???---seems not operational]IDIS??? seems not operational]

Facilitates data custodianship, networkingProject brochure in English and PortugueseSupport team knowledge sharing and wider Support team knowledge sharing, and wider stakeholder consultationsKnowledge products: CDs, DVDs, publications, newsletters virtual reality toolnewsletters, virtual reality tool

ARC leads: experience developing and managing AGIS (Agric. Geo-referenced Info System) (http://www.agis.agric.za/agisweb/agis.html), (http://www.agis.agric.za/agisweb/agis.html), custodian of IDIS-LimpopoInvited ReSAKSS now re-considering this.

P j t O t tProject OutputsEach WP specifies its outputsp p

Five main outputs in proposal:1. Revised Limpopo Basin Profile

including GIS-based atlas of water-poverty

2. Validated agricultural water 2. Validated agricultural water management “intervention packages”

3. Network map of stakeholdersD f “ i l li ” l 4. Demo of “virtual reality” tool (www.naledi3D.com)

5. Specification of topics needing further 5. Specification of topics needing further research

Anticipated Outcomes and Impacts

O tOutcomes:New insights and knowledge on water poverty nexus in Basin water-poverty nexus in Basin developed and sharedPotentially significant intervention Potentially significant intervention packages identified and workshoppedGaps in knowledge needing further research specified and prioritized

I tImpactsOur strength is the diverse and strong

l ti hi f t ith k d i i k relationships of partners with key decision makers and stakeholder representatives:

SADC, LIMPCOM, National, civil societyAlliance of agriculture and waterAlliance of agriculture and waterLBFP as a means to further enhance CPWF Basin Coordinators’ influence

Strong emphasis on stakeholder consultation from phase 1phase 1

To help us shape outcomes, and to achieve a high level of buy-in

No promises, but reasonable likelihood to No promises, but reasonable likelihood to influence policies, investments, and

implementation strategies

www.waterandfood.orgfwww.fanrpan.org

www.arc.agric.za/limpopo