nile basin focal project-intervention analysis
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Presented at the Pre-Forum BFP meeting, 7-8 November, 2008 in Addis Ababa, EthiopiaTRANSCRIPT
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
WP5: Interventions Analysis
Seleshi Bekele Awulachew
Nile Basin Focal ProjectDevelopment of Work plans
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
Content
1. Objectives
2. Key Issues and Research Questions
3. Expected Outputs
4. Methodology
5. Preliminary Results
6. Expected Outcomes
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
1. Objectives
• To understand interventions that can have greater impacts in the Nile Basin
• Specific objectives are to:– inventory and characterize various existing interventions in
relation to production systems and space
– document success and failures of interventions and map intervention types
– undertake detail performance analysis of existing interventions and their impacts through quantitative and qualitative analysis and recommend best bet interventions and implementation mechanisms
– undertake tradeoff analysis, ranking and modeling to select and evaluate high impact interventions and implementation strategy
– Develop problem tree & impact pathways through interventions
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
2. Key Issues: The Basin is highly variable,
the river is very important, various interventions
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
2. Key Research Questions
• What are the existing water related interventions in the basin under various production systems?
• Which interventions have succeeded and which ones failed?
• What are the technical, economic, institutional setups for successful or failed interventions under various systems?
• Which future interventions are required to bring high impact on poverty, water availability, access and productivity for various target groups?
Note: All questions may not be answered but will lead to future work
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
3. Expected Outputs
1: Literature Review & Assembly of Knowledge Reporti) Inventory & on desk characterization
ii) Ongoing and planned interventions by respective countries and regional organs (Master plans, SVP, SAPs)
iii) Intervention types under various production systems, sub-basins (past/existing, under implementation, future)
iv) Success and failures stories and causes
v) Intervention scales and up-scaling possibilities
vi) Short list of interventions through stakeholders consultation
vii) Report of literature review, long and short list of interventions
2: Detailed Assessments Reporti. Map of intervention types by production & hydronomic zones - GIS based map
ii. Design tools for evaluation of performance at selected sites & systems: PRA, questionnaires, interviews
iii. Evaluate performances of interventions
iv. Intermediate report on performance of interventions- -RR
v. Adopted model/s for evaluating quantitative and qualitative impacts of interventions- model setup
vi. Identify potential adoption sites using GIS and product of other WPs
vii. Special study report on recommendations of suits of interventions, necessary mechanisms and implications – RR and article/s
3: Assessment of High Potential Interventions Reporti. Generate high impact scenarios
ii. Select/develop model for scenario analysis
iii. Evaluate high potential interventions and their impacts (water availability, SE and environmental) through tradeoffs analysis (large versus small, HP vs agriculture, single vs multi-purpose, 9), response to new market opportunities (virtual water, power trade, ..) through MCA, ranking and modeling eg Watersim
iv. Validate the high potential interventions through stakeholders consultation
v. Report on high potential interventions
4: Problem Tree and Impact Pathway Report (Used as a means of thinking, implementing,
monitoring and analyzing the impact of the project)
– Implementing group discuss and identify problem tree (cause-effect) and impact pathways
– Problem tree and impact pathway is developed for the project
– The impact pathway is validated by stakeholders
– The impact pathway document used by the project
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
4. Methodology: Inter-linkages of WPs
Potential
intervention
WP1: Poverty
AnalysisWP2: Hydrology
Water Accounting
Spatially
disaggregated
water balance
WP3: Water
Productivity
WP4: Institutions
Farming
systems
Water use
systems
Spatial
dissagreg
ation
Economic
evaluations
Factors of
productivity: land,
water, 9
WP5: Intervention
Analysis
WP6: Knowledge Management
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
4. Methodology: Analysis
• Identify and map existing
intervention
• develop comprehensive list of interventions
• map interventions
• superimpose maps
• short list of interventions
• Design tools, evaluate performances, identify best interventions, develop scenarios, and evaluate
• indices, PRA, questioners, data collections
• evaluate performance
• validate scenarios-consultations
• tools for scenario analysis
• Define feasible options; evaluate potential impacts
• impact on water budget, productivity, socio-
economics and institutions;
• tradeoff results and impacts
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
5. Preliminary Results: Scales of Interventions
• Hydronomic Zones
• 5 specific detail case study sites
– Ethiopian Highlands
– Victoria Nile
– The Sudd
– Gezirra
– Delta
• One integrated basin wide analysis
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
The Detail Case Study Sites
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%[
%[
%[
%[
%[
%[
%[
%[
%[
%[
Sio
Yala
Vict oria N
il e
Ruvuvu
Kagera
Mara
Sondu
S imyu
Aswa
Nya borongo
Albe rt N ile
Nzoia
Dima
Semiliki
Kafu
Katon ga
Muzizi
Jin ja
Kamdini
Pakw achPanyango
Mbu lam uti
Laropi
Masindi Port
Kasenyi
Bweram ule
KatweKazing a ChannelIsh ango
Ngamba
L. Victor ia
L. AlbertL. Kyoga
L. Edward
L. Kivu
L. Tangany ika
L. George
%[
#Y
Namasagali
Murc hision F a lls
Monga lla
Owen Falls Dam
Paraa
Bugondo
But iabaBunia
Nimule
Kisumu
Musom a
Bukoba
Mwanza
Kampa la
Enteb be
Fort Porta l
Kigali
D R C
S U D A �
#Y Discharge S tations
%[ Towns
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
Aggregated Basin
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
5. Preliminary Results: Categorization of
Interventions
• Product/production system based – Crop Based: Field Crops, Horticulture, Forestry/ agro-Forestry9
– Animal based: Livestock, Fisheries/Aquaculture
• Farming system based– Rain fed, irrigation, mixed crop-livestock, etc
• Physical based– Infrastructural interventions
– Water and land based interventions: eg watershed management
• Socio-economic based– Agricultural based – Ag trade, virtual water
– Hydropower-interconnection
– Industrial
• Institutional and policy based– Institutional innovations; basin, sub-basin institutions
– Benefit/water-sharing
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
Example: Production System and Interventions
• Hydronomic profiles
• Production system
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
Infrastructural Interventions
• Control and Management of Natural Lakes (2)
• Large Dams/Reservoirs and Diversions (15)
• Small dams
• Ground Water Storage and Recharge
• Non-Conventional Water Sources Technologies
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
River Schematization, Flow and Interventions
Lake Tana
3,8093,920
Bosheilo
2,072Welaka
4,798Jemma
4,389
North Gojam
2,440Muger
2,187
Guder
1,719
Finchaa
5,012
South Gojam
2,355Anger
5,673
Didessa
3,874
Wonbera
Flow gauging station
Reservoir
6,246
Dabus
4,345
Beles
2,797 Dinder
1,102 Rahad
Khartoum
Border
Roseires
Sennar
Kessie
Outlet Lake Tana
Giwasi
Hawata
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
4,345Mean annual
discharge (Mm3)
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
Future Interventions
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
Capacity Building
• Tewdros : Water Resources Allocation of the Nile River Basin: A cooperative Game Theoretic Approach– Integrated economic-hydrologic-institutional modeling at the River Basin Scale
• George: Developing Optimal Economic Incentives for Managing Transboundary Water Externalities in the Blue Nile River Basin – Application of economic instruments to review the past and present
legal documents on the Blue Nile and treaties governing the entire Nile River Basin
– Modeling optimal allocation of water for maximizing use benefits among the countries established
• Binyam: Equitable Distribution of Benefits in Transboundary Waters
• 6 M.Sc. students
07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF
6. Expected Outcomes
Output 1����Interventions from Basin and International experience are compiled, made available and referred/used
Output 2�Highly performing interventions are promoted
Output 3� Development partners integrate high impact interventions scenarios in their investments
Output 4���� Used as a means to design, implement, monitor and create impact through the project