life-cycle of great powers: role of great powers in the

10-Oct-18

For citation Vyas, P. J. (2018 Oct. 10). Life Cycle of Great Powers: Role of Great Powers in the International System. Retrieved from https://thoughtsofvyas.com/articles-on-ir-theory

Life-Cycle of Great Powers: Role of Great Powers in the International

System

Dr. Palak J. Vyas

10-Oct-18


Abstract:

The rise and fall of great powers has been studied extensively by various scholars in the discipline of

International Relations. The process of the rise and fall is cyclical through which China’s goal of 100

years’ dream has been analyzed and predicted. The aim of this article is to define the role of great powers

during the cycle of rise and fall.

Keywords: 100 years’ Dream, China’s rise, great powers and life cycle of the great powers.

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1.1 Introduction and Significance

The international Relations discipline is a study of relationship between states and non-

state actors with each other. There should be some ground on which the theory is

developed. This article is an attempt to understand the actions of great power in the

international system with the help of theory of Life-Cycle of Great powers in order to

define the role of great power at various stages it passes through.

In International Relations we discuss a lot about relationships but the role of the actor is

not defined. Consequently, all the actors are clueless and helpless that they are actors and

their actions are analyzed but their role is not defined. Normally, when an individual takes

any action, he/she is aware of the role either in maintaining professional relations or

personal relations. But the actors of the international system are not clear about the role

they are supposed to play. There are few major perspectives, the scholars analyze the

actions of the states but none of the perspective is defining the role of the actors. Defining

the role (ground) of each type of actor in one article is something difficult. Consequently,

the article is an attempt to discuss the role of great powers and its cycle of rise and fall. So

far the foreign policy studies have been stressed by the scholars but the role of the

individuals has become of core importance in contemporary times. So this paper is an

attempt to define the role of the states. It discusses the role they shall play during the rise

and its fall as a great power in a simple manner.

Foreign policy is one of the most important aspects to understand the foreign relations

between the actors of the international system in IR. It is clear that foreign policy is a set of

various policies framed by the actors and foreign relations are the implementations of those

policies. In this paper, the foreign relations are studied with the help of human relations so

as to implement the foreign policies more effectively and efficiently.

Foreign policy has been studied extensively by so many scholars. James Rosenau is one of

the foreign policy scholars. His last work People Count! is a discussion on the

understanding of the macro effects on the micro level as well as the individuals of the state.

Globalization at large has tried to have its impact on each individual; hence there is a need

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to relate the individuals and their roles with the globalized world. “The problem is, and

always has been, one of tracing the ways in which individuals at the micro level shape and

are shaped by the macro organizations to which they belong. It is not an easy problem to

solve, so complex are individuals and so complex are macro organizations and the links

between the two.” (Rosenau, People Count!: Networked Individuals in Global Politics,

2008, p. vii)

The journey of states is defined by establishing its relationship with other actors of the

International system. Similar role has been played by individuals in their routine life. This

can have twofold outcomes: One outcome could be the states might adopt its role from

individuals such as student, teacher, parent or guardian. That is a state which aims to rise

has to play a role of a student and a state which is already a great power and is willing to

find a successor, shall have to play a role of a teacher or parents. Consequently, the actors

of the international system would be able to find their roles from individuals.

The other outcome might be the adoption of roles from the states by the individuals.

Normally, individuals are habitual to imitate his/her role from someone whom they admire.

States are larger entities and nationalism and patriotism can set up an example for

individuals to play their roles by imitating states in a better way. That way, the structure of

international system might be filled up with life and the individuals might have a larger

entity to imitate as the person whom they admire may not survive longer but the states

have survived for more than three centuries since the Treaty of Westphalia. When the

World Wars occurred during 20th century, the states that did not participate in the World

Wars, went through civil wars. When the International system started discussing about

peace, people are trying to find the peace around. The time has come for the states to

demonstrate how the people should act and play their roles with the help of the following

discussion. Consequently, they look for such an entity that they can imitate for long.

States are the entities which are looked at with the rise of Nationalism in different states.

Hence, human beings can understand how to act and maintain their relations in the outer

world.

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As the states are administered and represented by human beings, the role (expected

behaviour) of states during the life cycle that has been divided into 4 phases are related

with the human life so as to understand the role of a state during the rise and fall of great

powers. This has been discussed earlier by Valerie Hudson that “International relations

(IR) as a field of study has a ground, as well. All that occurs between nations and across

nations is grounded in human decision makers acting singly or in groups. In a sense, the

ground of IR is thus the same ground of all social sciences. Understanding how human

perceive and react to the world around them, and how humans shape and are shaped by the

world around them.” (Hudson, 2005, p. 1) Here, to develop a theory in IR on the life cycle

of great powers, the ground of human relationship has been studied and particular role of

the rising power is discussed in detail during different phases of the life cycle.

The question arises is why do one has to study the rise and fall of great powers? Why do

states aspire to rise as a great power? The simple answer to these questions is to get

happiness for its citizens. So how can one find happiness and from where it is available.

There are different types of people and they have different notions of happiness. “The most

general description of happiness is to be an internal experience of a positive state of mind,

which can be induced through various means.” (Shih, 1997, p. 182) Generally, there are

four sources of happiness that give pleasure to human beings. 1) Intellectual happiness; 2)

Happiness from luxuries; 3) Emotional happiness; and 4) Spiritual happiness are the major

sources of happiness that a state tries to seek when she determines to rise as a great power.

Consequently, the citizens of great powers live a happy life at all the stages of its rise and

its fall.

The rise of China has been studied extensively as well as exhaustively by scholars from all

over the world. But the puzzle behind China’s rise and its adoption of theoretical notions

still remains enigmatic. There are several theories of the rise and fall of states such as the

power transition theory, world system analysis, and the long cycles in global politics but

none of it is accorded to the China’s 100 years’ dream. So the puzzle of China’s rise

remains unresolved. Then how that puzzle can be resolved? The question is what is life

cycle of the great powers and why do we need to resolve the puzzle of China’s 100 years’

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dream? The life cycle of the great powers is a cycle to understand the foreign relations of

the rising power with the other actors of the international system. This is a unique cycle

that explains the role of the international actors and also the probable focus that is required

during the various phases of the rise and fall of great power.

1.2 Theoretical Analysis

International Relations is a discipline that discusses at length about the relations amongst the actors

of international system. When one thinks about a relationship, it exists between two actors. Each

actor has a specific role to play. A teacher in any institution share similar relationship with all or

few of his/her students. So there is a defined role of a teacher and the relationship is amongst the

teacher and the students. But in international relations there is a gap in discussion about specific

role amongst the actors of the international system. Mostly the expected behaviour of great powers

has been discussed at length by several scholars with the various perspectives but very few have

discussed about the role of the actors in IR or the foreign relations of the states. The life-cycle of

great powers is thus a discussion on the role of great powers at various stages of rise and fall of it

within 100 years of its long-cycles of world leadership of global politics. “Long cycles are a pattern

of regularity in the operations of global politics that focus in particular on the rise and fall of world

powers.” (Modelski, p. 2)

1.2.1 The Life Cycle of the Great Powers

The global system consists of several actors which are interacting with one another

through various perspectives. When we talk about actors, we need to clarify that these

actors of the global system are various kinds of entities i.e. they are simply structures.

Now in a world that has come closer during the post-structural period, one needs to add

life to the global system. Adding life to the global system becomes Mother Earth and

adding life to the actors of the global system gives actors certain roles to play as human

beings are expected to play their roles during their life. So the life cycle of the global

system discusses about the roles in detail. James Rosenau in his work on “People

Count!” has discussed about the roles in a fragmegrative world. He describes it as

“Roles-all roles- are defined by the norms embedded in the expectations that people have

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of the occupants of those roles and the expectations that the occupants have of

themselves.” (Rosenau, 2008, p. 9)

Usually, the international relations discipline is a study of relationships amongst the

actors of the international system with various perspectives described as “the study of

international relations extends from the natural sciences at one end to moral philosophy…

at the other.” (James Dougherty and Robert Pfaltzgraff, 1989, p. 13) Hence, the study of

foreign relations of the states could be considered plausible if studied systematically by

considering the norms from natural sciences to moral philosophy.

With the Renaissance and Reformation, the Western Society has experienced the

happiness in giving this world the new discoveries and inventions. The nature reveals its

secrets to those groups of people who are courageous, willing to accept the change and

bring that change in the world, which requires strong determination with far-sighted

leader who is always available at the service of his/her people and country’s happiness.

The life-cycle of the great powers is a cycle that discusses various kinds of happiness

attained and experienced by the citizens during each phase. It is the people of the state,

who decide to attain development with the help of rise and fall of the state but this

determination is possible only if the citizens are ready to experience the happiness that

lies in it. Attaining various capabilities such as military power or economic power as well

as cultural and technological advancement are all the attributes or sources but the real

achievement of development lies in the experience of the journey of 100 years and the

experience of transformation which gives immense happiness to its citizens and the

whole world.

The life-cycle of great powers is divided into four phases. Each phase is equally divided

into 25 years of time. A specific role is expected by the state to play during each phase.

That means the state has to play a distinct role during each phase of the cycle.

Life Cycle of the Great Powers

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Various Phases During the Rise and Fall of

Great Powers

Expected Behaviour (the role to be

performed)

First Phase of 25 years of Learning/Training

Phase i.e. the stage to gain intellectual

happiness.

The state has to behave like a sincere and

obedient student to learn and get trained from

the existing great power in the international

system.

Second Phase of 25 years of Power seeking

and Possessing Phase i.e. the stage to gain

happiness from luxuries.

During this phase the state becomes great

power so as to act in a responsible manner.

This great power will join hands with another

great power and may act in cooperation with

each other to address the international issues.

Third Phase of 25 years of Knowledge

Transfer and Retirement Phase i.e. the stage of

emotional happiness.

During this phase the great power is expected

to behave like a teacher and transfer its

knowledge to the states which are in their first

phase of this cycle.

Fourth Phase of 25 years of Salvation and

Fearless Phase i.e. the stage of spiritual

happiness.

During this phase the great power is expected

to spread the values required in the

International system.

1.2.1.1 First Phase

The first phase for any newly emerged state or a middle power intending to rise as a

great power has to be determined to rise and choose a teacher/parent/guardian from the

existing great powers in the international system. The state which is determined to rise

as a great power has to perform a role of an obedient student. The role of a student is to

listen to the words taught by the teacher/parent/guardian and reflect on the advice given

to her. The phase is to gain the military strength that is the phase of learning how to

sustain in this anarchical world as well as to strengthen its cultural power. This phase is

of isolation from the international system in order to focus on the aim and trying to

build the learning capacity amongst the citizens of the state. Here, each citizen of any

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age has to consider her/himself as a student and try to learn from the parent/teacher state

that is required to become a great power.

The great powers are the ones which dominate the international system and the new

great powers do get the same responsibility during the second phase of the life-cycle of

great powers. It means the aspiring great powers or the potential great powers are the

ones that are going to dominate the international system in the next phase. So it depends

on what kind of training is provided by the existing great powers to the potential powers

in order to rise and sustain as a great power. James Rosenau in his People Count! has

discussed about the students that “Students count in variety of ways but perhaps their

main significance is that they constitute future generations…. The values they acquire,

the training they receive, and the motivations they develop are bound to affect what a

society will become with the passage of time.” (Rosenau, 2008, p. 122)

Consequently, the major question is what kind of behaviour is expected from the

students that may help them to bring the required changes in the existing system as well

as continue with the teachings of their cultures as well as traditions. James Rosenau’s

concept of fragmegration i.e. fragmentation as well as integration are combined here

that clarifies that a student should be competent enough to participate in his/her

discipline at the global level i.e. integrating with the professional world as well as learn

the traditional values and maintain the social and cultural values in the society at the

local level i.e. fragmenting into their own social and cultural values in their society. “I

prefer my own term, fragmegration—an admittedly ungainly and grating label, but one

that captures in a single word the fragmentation and integration that marks the changing

dynamics in world politics. An understanding of world affairs at both the micro and

macro levels is greatly facilitated if these changes are viewed through fragmegrative

lenses.” (Rosenau, 2008, p. 6)

During this phase all the citizens of all categories i.e. age, discipline, profession as well

as culture have to consider themselves as students and should try to learn the skills so as

to advance in their own sphere of work and task. As the existing great power is aware of

that what next needs to be expected from the new potential powers, they introduce them

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to the status of the international system during that time. This way, the doctors of the

existing great power will discuss about their latest research and teach the potential

powers (student states) of the great power to understand the level where the existing

great powers have reached and has to learn even that has been invented and discovered

in their discipline so far. From that point the new student great powers are expected to

bring innovations and new inventions in their discipline. The engineers, scientists,

researchers etc. shall do the same.

The potential power (student state) is expected to work hard and have single minded

focus to attain a goal to reach as a great power with strong determination and actions of

all the citizens as well as the leaders should be only leading them to rise as a great

power.

During this phase the students should try to attain the intellectual happiness by

investigating and performing research in their area of specialization. The government

should support all new researches and patents and encourage all sincere researchers to

conduct their work will complete dedication. The researchers are those who have

experienced it and probably each person if tries to make efforts sincerely in their own

discipline, they will be able to attain that intellectual happiness. This intellectual

happiness makes human beings think rationally and they may not get easily affected by

any kind of enticement. So they may live a life avoiding troubles and have a modest

life. David Myers and Ed Diener have tried to conduct systematic study of ‘subjective

happiness’ in one of their works. “In the University of Chicago surveys, three in 10

Americans say they are very happy.” (Diener, 1996, p. 54) Consequently, the

intellectual happiness is something that can be achieved with the focus on studies and

try to reach the top.

1.2.1.2 Second Phase

The second phase is of interdependence between two states during which they have to

remain dedicated to each other for the remaining phases of life cycle. The relationship is

based on the balance between each other as well as the balance amongst the internal as

well as external interests of any state with the other actors of the international system.

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Now in the matters of relationship between states, it can be easily understood if one

explains interdependence. The basic motive of interdependence is to cooperate with

each other. Here, the two states or the bipolar world has to complement each other and

not to compete with each other. This is possible by taking care of each other’s self-

interests. That is mutual cooperation helps make the world peaceful. “One view of

interdependence is very positive and optimistic. This view sees interdependence as

leading toward more and more cooperation among states as they are brought together;

according to this view, some sort of world community or world state will eventually

emerge from this process.” (Starr, 1981, p. 496) This phase is mainly intended to depict

two opposite states one from East and one from West to balance the international

system.

This leads the citizens to become responsible great powers that takes care of the

international system and set up new order by understanding the change that is required

in the international system as well as in their own state by entering into the next phase

to become economically stronger and powerful with the help of skills they have learned.

“At the micro level are the skills by citizens come to appreciate that there may be

conditions wherein subsystems are ill-suited to achieve control over such issues. This

skills lead people to recognize the limits of subgroupism, to reconsider their rejection of

whole systems, and thus to expand their understanding to include conceptions of self-

interest that allow them to direct their loyalties and energies toward the state-centric

world when it seems appropriate.” (Rosenau, Turbulence in World Politics: A Theory of

Change and Continuity, 1990, p. 455) That change is possible by joining hands with the

other great power and make the world a bipolar system with a common world order that

is balancing the international system.

The concentration of economy is distributed only between these two great powers. The

newly emerged great power is now expected to innovate the modern technology to ease

their tasks and lead the world ahead. The great powers are expected to act in a

responsible manner by being kind to smaller states or newly emerged states and to help

them sustain by providing them necessary environment for their further development.

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By taking care of the existing super power and being polite and obedient and be

respectful as well as grateful to it becomes the duty or an obligation of the newly

emerged great powers. Great powers enter into interaction with various transnational

organizations and international organizations to have control over the economic

transactions going on in the world. They are also expected to use the resources in a

sustainable manner so as the other states when rise can use them in future. They are

expected to resolve the international conflicts peacefully as well as find out some

alternative source of resources to address the issue of climate change. Hence, the great

powers do project their responsibilities in the international system. The individuals of

that great power are expected to adopt such responsibility in their life.

This phase is of gaining happiness from the leisure and enjoys the life at fullest. But as

the citizens are intellectual and are modest enough, they may enjoy the pleasures only

during leisure time. They are also expected to be responsible to work hard to maintain

the position for 25 years. They have great responsibilities to take care of other actors of

the international system so they deserve comfort to make their life easy and also to

perform their duties at various levels on time. Consequently, technological advancement

is also another power attribute that is gained during this phase.

1.2.1.3 Third Phase

The third phase is of choosing or selecting new states those who have the potential to

rise as a great power. Their fair training begins by both the great powers that existed

during the last phase. Both of them select their students and both together decide which

of their two students can be given the responsibility by the end of this phase. This

completely depends on the citizens of the student states as how much they are open to

learn from the great powers and how much they are trying hard to contribute something

meaningful to the world from the training they receive. Same training is given to all the

potential powers but only two - one from the east and one from the west - shall be

declared the great powers after their performance during and at the end of the first phase

of life cycle of great powers.

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Why do great powers provide education to other states? What is the use of education?

What kind of training and curriculum should be provided along with the infrastructural

development? The education provides the understanding of the world and gives self-

confidence to survive in the society. So the curriculum should be a combination of

theoretical and practical knowledge to develop infrastructure that is based on the

contemporary needs such as eco-friendly structures and the development of the means

to live the life at fullest by enjoying each stage of life cycle. James Rosenau describes

that “Like much else, students and education have benefitted from the advent of new

electronic technologies. Both in colleges and secondary schools in advanced industrial

societies, students are offered opportunities to move around in virtual learning

environments, to enroll in “laptop universities,” and thereby to experience the vast

resources of cyberspace.” (Rosenau, People Count!: Networked Individuals in Global

Politics, 2008, p. 124) The curriculum should be changed after every 25 years and it

should consist of the historical achievements in each discipline as well as philosophy to

understand the world and find the gap and bring the change that is required in the world.

The aim of education is to provide self-confidence amongst the students. Same is

required for the states or any other actor to survive in the international system. The role

of a teacher is to bring out the hidden quality of the student and make them think

creatively.

What should be the expected behaviour of the great powers during the third phase of the

life cycle of great powers? The role of a great power during the third phase is of a

teacher/ parents/ guardian. They are expected to behave in an altruistic manner by

training the potential power and by the end of this phase they will be able to get two

such powers on which they can bestow the responsibility of great powers continue to

dominate in the international system. This phase is of voluntary transfer of knowledge

to the rising state. This also is a phase of giving economic aids and loans to those states.

“The decline of hegemony is a result of differential rates of economic growth, which

surely affect the nature of the international trade regime.” (Stein, 1984, p. 359) As well

as transfer of technological skills is also a required feature of this phase.

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During this phase, the happiness lies in the ‘joy of giving’ something to others. This

voluntary initiative of helping the states and see them developing is of a great pleasure.

The great powers have achieved everything and are looking for happiness. This

happiness lies in giving aids to the needy small states and giving training to the

potential states.

1.2.1.4 Fourth Phase

This phase is of retirement from international system for 25 years. The great powers

those who have given the responsibility can now rest during this phase. This phase is of

voluntarily sharing the military power and reduces it in order to be harmless and

trustworthy states of the international system. During this phase, the great power

abstains from the International politics and tries to remain neutral in major decisions.

During this phase, the citizens of great powers get exhausted after long time effort of 75

years. Consequently, they are expected to focus on the values to be added in the internal

system of a state with the help of soft power in terms of the values their culture stands

for. As they have worked at the international level they will be able to remove faults

easily that exist in the domestic politics such as corruption, try to address the grievances

of their citizens and focus on making the domestic system normative.

James Rosenau discusses about cosmopolitans “whether or not they spent their lives in

two or more cultures, cosmopolitans tend to be secure with their identity as people who

view world as their home and thus have minimal attachments to particular countries.

Although they may not parade their conviction that they are citizens of the world, both

their attitudes and their actions are marked by the absence of territorial orientations. For

them, the world is their home in the sense that they care about its well-being and the

major economic, political, and cultural issues that comprise the global agenda.”

(Rosenau, People Count!: Networked Individuals in Global Politics, 2008, p. 53)

1.3 Empirical Analysis of the Life Cycle of the Great Powers

When any new theory is generated, it is usually tested with some empirical illustration.

This theory of life cycle of great powers is empirically tested with the China’s 100 years

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dream. Here, China has set up a goal immediately after its establishment and there were

certain foreign policy objectives such as getting recognized as a Sovereign state, but there

may be many states which are established or have become independent before many years

but have not yet been able to determine or move on the path to rise as a great power

successfully. Consequently, the 100 years begins from when there is a consensus from all

the citizens to join together determined to move on the path of rise of their state. The focus

is to understand the role of a state played during its rise with the help of its foreign

relations with other actors and justify its role as appropriate and the state is successful in

performing its role at various stages or not. Hence, China’s 100 years goal is an illustration

or empirically used to test the theory. It is not required that other states may do the same

but the theory is generic and might be applicable to democratic as well as non-democratic

states having any form of government can use this theory and rise as a great power.

1.3.1 China’s 100 Year’s Dream: An Analysis with the Life Cycle of the Great Powers

Chinese foreign policy has been discussed at length by many scholars as an attempt to

predict the behaviour of China in the coming decades. The analysis of China’s 100 years

dream has begun since its establishment. Consequently, China’s 100 years begins from

1949 that shall complete its 100 years in 2049. “Since the founding of the People’s

Republic of China in 1949, the Chinese people have been marching forward step by step

toward the goals of industrialization and modernization, aiming at basically realizing

modernization by the year 2050.” (Junru, 2006, p. vii) The China’s dream has been

analyzed by investigating what kind of role China has played through its foreign relations

with other actors of the international system. Consequently, Chinese foreign relations are

analyzed with the help of life cycle of great powers in order to understand its role during

different phases of its rise. Has China been successful in performing its role or not?

Scholars have been busy understanding the policies adopted by China but its actual

implementation can only be studied if one tries to analyze what kind of relationship

China shared with other actors and what its role was as a state during various stages of its

rise.

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1.3.1.1 First Phase: 1949-1974

The role of China during this phase as per the life cycle of great powers is of a student.

If China was a student then Soviet Union under Stalin’s leadership was the teacher at

that time. Mao considered Stalin as his teacher and could become successful in

establishing People’s Republic of China in 1949. During this phase a state is trying to

enhance its security by strengthening its military power. This was done during Mao era.

There were three kinds of military personnel which were trained and could reach at the

level of regular military personnel from the unconventional and informal guerilla red

army. But for Mao, men are more important than weapons in the war. They were

satisfied with the weapons they got from Japan during World War II and few from

Nationalists with the help of Soviet Union. (Hinton, 1966, pp. 58-59) On the contrary,

major achievement of military power was the detonation of nuclear weapons in 1964.

The main essence of the Maoist strategy is to defeat the “imperialism, feudalism, and

bureaucratic capitalism” as well as to join the party’s control over the allies of united

front. (Hinton, 1966, pp. 60-61) Mao did believe in Cultural Revolution and tried to

apply it in China. Here, Mao’s strategies were to strengthen its culture through Cultural

Revolution but it resulted into loss of life and property along with utter chaos. China’s

role of a student during which China is expected to focus on its development instead of

that, China participated and tried to compete with the Soviet Union in expansion of

Communism through united front. This had happened after Stalin’s death. Mao had

considered Stalin as his teacher and not Soviet Union as teacher of China. This resulted

into Sino-Soviet rift. Consequently, without any guidance China and its citizens

suffered.

A role of a student is to obey the teacher, follow the instructions and act only when it is

advised by the teacher. The student is not expected to expand relations but to study the

skills to rise which she/he is supposed to apply during the next phase and earn

livelihood on that basis. Isolation is required to do self analysis and improve almost in

all the skills. Mao’s benefit during this phase was whatever the Communist Party of

China (CPC) decides for the people he got immediate consensus and the people were

obedient enough and ready to implement whatever was taught. This helped Mao to

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initiate and create a background to rise of China as a great power. It began with heavy

industries, possession of nuclear weapons, and advancement in agricultural sector.

(Hinton, 1966, p. 59)

Though the people were ready to adopt skills, there were major reforms required to

introduce during the next phase for China’s rise as a great power.

1.3.1.2 Second Phase: 1975-1999

This is the second phase of economic interdependence. China had joined hands with the

United States and tried to bring the required reforms. This phase is of taking care of

mutual interests. That means China is expected to take care of American self-interests

and America is expected to take care of China’s self-interests. An interesting work by

David Lampton has contributed to clarify the ambiguities that prevailed in the China-

U.S. relations. As this piece of work is mainly focusing on the individuals and the

people count in the international relations, David Lampton’s “Same Bed, Different

Dreams” is has discussed in the last segment of individual contribution from China’s

side as well as American side. He has discussed how the individuals of both the states

tried to cooperate with each other through taking care of mutual interests. In two

different incidents, both the individuals tried to help the other state. An American

citizen, Mr. Greenberg, Chairman of Starr Foundation has individually contributed to

reach the grassroots of China in order to fulfill the self-interest of Chinese society in

various forms with financial aids. “Finally, as chairman of the Starr Foundation,

Greenberg has supported philanthropic activity through “the disbursement of major

financial support to academic, medical, cultural and public policy institutions… From

1970 through the late 1990s, the foundation made China-related grants totaling $51

million.” (Lampton, 2001, p. 351)

Similarly, a Chinese citizen, Dai Qing’s writings helped the United States and other

financial institutions such as Import-Export Bank to understand the fraud in one of the

major projects of dam construction on river Yangtse. “it is to argue, however, that Dai

Qing is a private Chinese citizen who has made a difference in one corner of the U.S.-

China relationship.” (Lampton, 2001, p. 354) This way both China and America were

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linked with each other and tried to take care of each other’s self-interests in order to

balance the international system.

Lampton further discusses that it is not only the governments of both the states tried to

connect with each other but academic institutions, nongovernmental organizations and

businesses have been more effective in terms to generate power. (Lampton, 2001, p.

355) This way the individuals through various institutions as well as individuals

contributed to have the positive impact of both the states on each other through

economic interdependence.

1.3.1.3 Third Phase: 2000-2024

This phase is of voluntary distribution of its economy and technological skills by

engaging into several multilateral economic relations such as SCO, ASEAN as well as

APEC and many more. Pacific has become a centre of analysis in the contemporary

times. China has been engaged in providing aids to the rising powers. China has now

entered into the multilateral agreements since 2000. As the third phase is of multilateral

relations, China’s involvement in various global and regional trade agreements could be

analyzed. “As suggested by Elaine S. Kwei, the first possibility is that China’s leaders

saw China’s interests served best by participation in global and regional trade

frameworks rather than bilateral arrangements. China’s assiduous pursuit of World

Trade Organization (WTO) membership and its strong leadership role in Asia-Pacific

Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) give support to this hypothesis. ” (Yang,

Summer 2007, pp. 328-9) China has also been engaged in providing aids to Central

Asia through Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) , Africa through Forum on

China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and Latin America through Inter-American

Development Bank as the major regions to receive aids and contribute to the

development of the Third World states.

The United States and China are now teachers of different potential powers like India,

Nigeria, Brazil, Germany, South Africa, Japan etc. Both the powers may decide which

two states are open to learn the skills that the existing great powers are providing them

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by giving training and aids in various sectors in order to strengthen the power of that

student state (potential power) to rise as a great power.

1.3.1.4 Fourth Phase: 2025-2049

This phase is the last phase of the cycle. The expected behaviour from the Chinese

society at large is its cosmopolitan behaviour in the international system and reduce its

military power through multilateral security engagements to become a harmless state

for 25 years of the cycle.

In order to bring the change in the Chinese society, the education system would be one

of the major sources through which the check on corruption, human rights issues,

terrorism as well as democracy shall be addressed. These 25 years are of addressing the

issues at micro level to synchronize with the international system prevailing at that time.

1.4 Critical Analysis of the Life Cycle of the Great Powers

The piece of work is never complete in itself. It always consists of merits and demerits.

This piece of work also consists of few merits and demerits that have been discussed as

follows:

1.4.1 Merits of the Life Cycle

The merit of this theory is that the citizens get happiness during each phase of rise

and fall. Usually, the fall during the middle era of 18th and 19th centuries occurred

with too much of loss of life and property but in this cycle, it is a voluntary action

during which the great powers willingly provide aids to the potential powers and

try to reduce its economic power and military power in the last two phases. It is

more a multilateral relation where there is a scope of distribution rather than

concentration of power. As this is a cyclical process, the state may again get a

chance to gain military and economic strength after they complete one cycle.

The theory has been successful as its empirical testing of China’s foreign relations

is plausible. The theory has tried to resolve the puzzle of China’s rise through

foreign relations and the role of China during each phase of the life-cycle of great

powers.

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1.4.2 Demerits of the Life Cycle

The demerit of this theory is the transformation from one phase to another one. It

is easier to get transformed from first to second phase but voluntarily getting into

third phase and then into fourth phase is a challenge in itself.

This discussion is based on only state actors. The roles of non-state actors are

described only in the two stages. The role of small states and dependencies has

not been discussed in this Life Cycle of Great Powers.

1.5 Conclusion

The international system requires balance between design of the foreign policy objectives

of a state and implementation of foreign policy through foreign relations by defining their

role in a cyclical process. The life-cycle of great powers is an attempt to bridge the gap

between the goal by the distinct design of foreign policies and its implementation through

different roles with the help of foreign relations. The empirical illustration of Chinese

foreign relations has made the theory plausible. This is a cyclical process so there is always

a scope for great powers to rise again. The process of fall is described as a voluntary

distribution of economic aids and loans to the rising great powers. This does not mean the

fall of economy of the earlier great power. Multilateral economic and military relations as

seen in China’s illustration are better ways to share the power.

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