Lesson 1 ODOTSimple Models

Simple Models

Learning Outcomes

• As part of a group, develop conceptual models of REC, stressors, and a highway project

• Identify which information about the past is relevant to analysis under NEPA

• Recognize how different uses of reasonably foreseeable future actions enhances model development

Simple Models

• Variable:• A dependent or independent pattern or process• Can interact with/feed back to other variables • Subject to change or variability

• Stressor:• An independent variable that influences the

“behavior” or response of a dependent variable; • Often a driver, limiting factor, or constraint

Y = f(X1, X2, X3)trends and condition of REC

is a function of stressors

Stressor X2

Stressor X2

Stressor X3

Stressor X3

Stressor X1

Stressor X1

RECY

RECY

Simple Models y = f(x) = f(x) = y

Independent Variable:• X• Stressor• Driver• Limiting Factor

Dependent Variable• Y• REC

Two-Part Analytic Question

To inform decisions, environmental impact analyses must be broken into two-parts:

• What effect does the action have on specific resources?

• i.e., action-focused• What does that effect mean from the

perspective of the resource itself?• i.e., resource-focused

Simple ModelsAction-Focused

Why model?

• Identify REC, drivers, trends, and sustainability

• Identify the range of interactions with project

• Transparent process for focusing on potentially significant interactions for analysis

Simple ModelsResource-Focused

Why Model?

• Characterize REC’s response to change and capacity to withstand stress

• Characterize the stressors, drivers, or limiting factors affecting REC sustainability thresholds

Simple ModelsResource-Focused

Why Model?

• What are the effects of other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable actions on the REC?

• Additive, countervailing, and synergistic effects

Simple Models

Why Model?

• Define a baseline condition for the REC

• Identify the important interactions between REC and proposed action

• Transparent evaluation of mitigation options

Great Streets Pedestrian LOS

Simple ModelsScoping REC’s

• HydrologySurface, Groundwater, Soil water

• AirAir Quality, Visibility

• BiotaRepresentative, Unique, Imperiled

Species and Communities; Habitats

Simple ModelsScoping REC’s

• Socioeconomics• Education Services • Traffic and Transportation• Human Health • Public and Emergency Services• Community Cohesion• Economic Stability

Simple ModelsScoping REC’s

• Noise ImpactsHumans, Wildlife, Aesthetic

• Visual ImpactsViewsheds, Aesthetics,

• Cultural ImpactsArcheological, Historical, Architectural

Si

mple

Models

Deconstructing the

Action

Deconstructing Actions into their constituent elements makes it easier to

– Identify the various aspects of Actions that have implications for Resources of Interest– Assess the effects of complex Actions on Resources of Interest– Retrieve information on their effects– Helps provide a more complete descriptions of action

Si

mple

Models

Deconstructing the

Action

Simple ModelsUse in EIA

• Deconstruct the issues

• Identify informative affected stressors

• Logical progression (serial exposure - response risk profiles)

• Consider feedbacks and adjustments

Simple ModelsSpace and Time

• Key is the usefulness of the information

• Scales should vary by focus, REC, project location, and project type

• Know how data is used in analysis so that model is helpful

Simple ModelsSpatial Scale

• Varies depends on focus, REC, project location, and type

• Resource-Focused may be larger than area of Action-Focused impacts– Political geographic boundaries, – Commute-shed boundaries, – Growth boundaries and service limits,– Watershed and habitat boundaries

Simple ModelsIntegrating RFFAs

• Other transportation projects …• … airport, freight, and transit • Other Federal agency activities • … approved NEPA documents or

projects under study • Activities in approved land use and

development plans• Major private projects• Reasonably foreseeable

Temporal Context

• Varies depends on focus, REC, project location, and type

• Resource-Focused may be longer than that of Action-Focused impacts– Different levels of certainty apply– Info on system behavior versus info on chain

of events

Temporal Context

PresentPast Future

Project Impacts

Indirect Impacts

Most Probable State of system represented by REC

Past, present and future stressors

Temporal ContextPast, Present, and Future?

Remember the goal of the analysis …• Better decisions (information about trade-

offs), and inform public;• Focus effort on information that aids the

analysis;• Two-part EIA question means two sets of

information about past, present, and future

Temporal ContextReasonably Foreseeable

Action-Focused More than already approved projects, but not so

far as mere speculative projects Causal relationship/connectedness Logical Observed patterns in similar situations Document assumptions and “boundaries”; avoid

arbitrary decisions

Temporal ContextReasonably Foreseeable

Resource-Focused Legacy, concurrent, and projected future

behavior of REC Stressors affecting limiting factors, resiliency Actions that will change limiting factors Logical Document assumptions and “boundaries”; avoid

arbitrary decisions

Temporal ContextReasonably Foreseeable

• YES– Predict and forecast – Probable – Likely– Some uncertainty is inherent and inevitable

• NO – Speculation– Contemplation– Conjecture – Possible

Temporal ContextPast

• ... CEQ’s NEPA regulations [require] a concise description of the identifiable present effects of past actions to the extent that they are relevant and useful in analyzing [RFFA’s]

Temporal Context Past

• … look for present effects if past actions that are …relevant and useful because they have a significant cause-and-effect relationship with the direct and indirect effects of the proposal for agency actions

Temporal Context Past

• …simply because information about past actions may be available … does not mean that it is relevant and necessary to inform decisionmaking.

Simple ModelsREC model Exercise

• Identify the REC

• Identify the most obvious stressors

• Establish initial spatial and temporal bounds for REC

• Tentatively define sustainability

• Use Posterboard to Report

Simple Models

Learning Outcomes

• As part of a group, develop conceptual models of three REC’s and one highway project

• Identify which information about the past is relevant to analysis under NEPA

• Recognize how different uses of reasonably foreseeable future actions enhances model development

Simple Models

True of False

• An independent variable is itself dependent on independent variables of another order.

Simple Models

True of False

• Well written and researched information about either immediately post-glacial or pre-European contact natural habitats should always be used when putting trends and condition in context.

Simple Models

True or False

• Reasonably foreseeable future actions are never the same for action-focused and resource-focused effects analyses?

Simple Models

Which quadrant (1, 2, 3, or 4) would you normally expect to be the source of RFFA?

Relevant to decision

Not relevant

Speculation Near certainty43

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