leslie appleton-young chief economist 2011 housing market update monterey county aor portola hotel...
TRANSCRIPT
Leslie Appleton-YoungChief Economist
2011 Housing Market Update
Monterey County AORPortola HotelJune 28, 2011.
Overview
US and California Economies
California Housing Market
Local/Regional Monterey Housing Market
Survey Highlights
California Forecast
US and California Economic Conditions
Gross domestic Product2010: +2.9%; 2011 Q1: +1.9% Q2p: 2%
-8%-7%
-6%-5%
-4%
-3%-2%
-1%
0%1%
2%3%
4%
5%6%
7%
8%
19
70
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72
19
74
19
76
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78
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82
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86
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20
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20
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20
06
20
08
20
10
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $
ANNUAL QTRLY
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Components of GDP
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Consumption Fixed Nonres.Investment
Net Exports Government
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Percent Change
INDEX, 100=1985
Consumer Confidence IndexMay 2011: 60.8
20
40
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80
100
120
140
160
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DJIMonthly
Avg.
Dow Jones Stock Price and Consumer Confidence
30 Industrial Index vs. Consumer Confidence Index 1987-2011
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Dow Jones 30 Industrials Consumer Confidence Index Cons. Conf.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Ja
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Ja
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CA US
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Unemployment Rate CA v. USDisappointing May Jobs Report
-1,000,000
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
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U.S. Non-farm Job Growth
SOURCE: US Dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Month-to-Month Changes
Recession Job Losses: 8.4 millionSince Jan’10: +1.14 million
Consumer Price IndexMay 2011: All Items +3.4% YTY; Core +1.5% YTY
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Ja
n-8
0J
an
-81
Ja
n-8
2J
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-83
Ja
n-8
4J
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-85
Ja
n-8
6J
an
-87
Ja
n-8
8J
an
-89
Ja
n-9
0J
an
-91
Ja
n-9
2J
an
-93
Ja
n-9
4J
an
-95
Ja
n-9
6J
an
-97
Ja
n-9
8J
an
-99
Ja
n-0
0J
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-01
Ja
n-0
2J
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-03
Ja
n-0
4J
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-05
Ja
n-0
6J
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-07
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8J
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-09
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n-1
0J
an
-11
All Items
Core
PERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO, 100=1982-1984
Dollars per Barrel
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
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Crude Oil
Crude Oil Adjusted by CPI
Oil Prices A Near Term ConcernWest Texas Intermediate: Mar-11: $102.90• Mar-10: $81.20
CPI (1982-84=100, NSA)
SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
Mortgage RatesHeader Higher in 2012
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
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FRM
ARM
Federal Funds
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
7,000,000J
an
-89
Ja
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$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
$180,000
$190,000
$200,000
$210,000
$220,000
$230,000
$240,000
Existing Single-Family Home Sales Median Price
U.S. Existing Single-Family Home Sales
May 2011 Sales: -15.4% YTY, Median Price: -4.5% YTY
Monthly 2005 - PresentSEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Fe
b-0
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Ma
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Au
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No
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U.S. Pending Home Sales Index
WESTUS
Positive Signs…
Strong international growth
Stock market recovery
Real Estate net worth stabilizing
Rising rents and more qualified renters
Strong demand for distressed properties
Smart money chasing real estate (all cash sales)
Structural Concerns…
Balance sheet and deleveraging issues
Financial sector weakness
Housing sector struggling – tight credit & inventory over-
hang: 4 million delinquent loans; 1.1 million homes in
foreclosure and 900,000 REOs
Mis-match between jobs and workforce skills
Temporary Factors
Japanese Tsunami and earthquake
Middle East turmoil – “Arab Spring“
Greek/EU debt crisis
US debt ceiling debate
U.S. Economic Outlook
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f
US GDP 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% -2.6% 2.9% 2.4%
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.6% -4.4% -0.7% 1.2%
Unemployment 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.9%
CPI 2.7% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.4% 1.6% 2.3%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
3.4% 1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 2.2%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Forecast Date: May 2011
California Economic Outlook
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.3% -6.0% -1.4% 1.0%
Unemployment Rate
6.2% 5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.4% 12.4% 11.9%
Population Growth
1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
3.6% 1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -2.2% 1.6% 0.8%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Forecast Date: May 2011
Federal Issues
High-cost Loan Limit - expires 10/1/11
Future of Fannie and Freddie in flux
MID and Tax Reform on the horizon
FHA targeted for market share drop
QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage) 20% Down – 30 year mortgage???
Short Sales – Standardization,
Transparency and Communication
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
All
Ye
ars
Enterprise (GSE) Private-Label
% Over 90-Days Delinquent (All Mortgages FRMs +ARMs)SF Mortgages Originated between 2001 – 2008
SOURCE: Federal Housing Finance Agency (using data from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and CoreLogic, Inc.), Mortgage Bankers Association
Now You See Fannie/Freddie Sales…California, 2010 Sales: 494,900 Units,
2010 Conforming Share of CA Mtgs: 92%*
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Jumbo Sales Conforming SalesUNITS
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®*Based on C.A.R. estimates, includes All Conforming: Fannie/Freddie/FHA/VA
…Now You Don’t!Without Fannie & Freddie Worst Case Scenario: No Private Response
2010 Conforming Share of CA Mortgages: 92%*
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Jumbo SalesUNITS
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®*Based on National Share of Fannie/Freddie Share from Inside Mortgage Finance Estimates
QRM – Qualified Residential Mortgage
Proposed Requirements (March 2011) 20% Down 28/36 Debt to Income 25% equity stake to refi ; 30% equity for cash-out refi Squeaky clean credit Exempt• Fannie and Freddie (under conservatorship)• FHA and VA• Estimates of rate differential: .75% to 3%• Comment period ends August 2011
On Average over last 12 years, Less than 1 in 5 Fannie/Freddie Loans
Would Have Met QRM
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.SOURCE: Federal Housing Finance Agency
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q1
/90
Q1
/91
Q1
/92
Q1
/93
Q1
/94
Q1
/95
Q1
/96
Q1
/97
Q1
/98
Q1
/99
Q1
/00
Q1
/01
Q1
/02
Q1
/03
Q1
/04
Q1
/05
Q1
/06
Q1
/07
Q1
/08
Q1
/09
Q1
/10
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%Refinance Originations (Bil $)Purchase Originations (Bil $)Fixed Rate Mortgage
ORIGINATION (BIL $) 30-YR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE
Mortgage Originations: 1990-2010
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America
Refinance vs. Purchase
What Happened?
Trustee Sales in Anaheim Scheduled for 10/7/10
1872 W. Admiral, 92801
3 bd, 2.5 ba, built in 1982Purchased in Sept 2005 for $594,000 with 30% down.In April 2006, added a second for $57,000.In Oct 2006, refinanced the second into a new second for $100,000.Defaulted in 2010Zestimate of current value = $364,000.
1572 W. Orangewood, 92802
3 bd, 2 ba, 2,016 sq ft built in 1977.Purchased in June 2003 for $455,000 with 30% down.March 2004: added a second for $75,000; added a third for $90,500; added a fourth for $80,000. Within one year of purchase, the property had $565,000 in debt on it!Defaulted in 2010.Zestimate of current value = $442,000.
8871 Regal, 92804
3 bd, 2 ba, 1,314 sq ft built in 1956.Purchased as REO in 2007 for $417,000 with zero down.Had previously sold for $568,000 in 2005.Defaulted in 2010.Zestimate of current value = $367,500.
2414 E. Underhill, 92806
3 bd, 2 ba, 1,459 sq ft built in 1957.Purchased for $640,000 in July 2006 with piggyback financing: $500,000 first and $140,000 second, i.e. zero down.Defaulted in 2010.Zestimate of current value = $387,000.
Conclusions
Excessive borrowing against home equity contributed significantly to the foreclosure story.
39% of new defaults from 2006 to 2008 attributable to home equity borrowing
“House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis” by Mian and Sufi: American Economic Review (forthcoming):
Understanding the Financial Crisis
California Housing Market
THOUSANDS
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Home Sales Membership
California’s Housing Cycles and Membership1970-2010
Hitting Bottom: Sales 2007, Prices 2009
UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price
California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price
-61% -25%
-44%
$129 $132
$181
$224
$282
$327
$266
$194
$154 $156$150$150
26%
16%
-27%
-21%
-19%
0%-2%
4%2%
37%
24%
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
$350.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
F
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
$ Volume of Sales Percent Change% Change$ in Billion
Dollar Volume of Sales 2011 Projection: +4%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
-54%
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence
California, May 2011 Sales: 471,840 Units, -2.0 YTD, -5.8% MTM, -14.4% YTY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Ja
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Ja
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sales Consumer Confidence INDEXUNITS
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230
-59% frompeak
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000Ja
n-0
0
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Median Price of Existing Detached HomesCalifornia, May 2011: $291,760 -.07% MTM 10.9 YTY
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Unsold Inventory IndexCalifornia, May 2011: 5.4 Months
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Ja
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Ja
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Ja
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Ja
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Ja
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Ja
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Ja
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Ja
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9
Ja
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Ja
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1
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MONTHS
10.1
5.5
4.4
3.8
3.2
9
7.2
6.2
5.8
5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
$1,000K+
$750-1000K
$500-750K
$300-500K
$0-300K
Pri
ce
Ra
ng
e (
Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Months Supply
Last Year
This Year
Unsold Inventory By Price RangeCalifornia - Existing Homes May 2010 vs. May 2011
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price Range (Thousand) May-10 Apr-11 May-11
$1,000K+ 10.1 9.5 9.0$750-1000K 5.5 7.0 7.2$500-750K 4.4 5.9 6.2$300-500K 3.8 5.4 5.8$0-300K 3.2 4.9 5.0
Unsold Inventory Index (Months)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Unsold Inventory By Price RangeJan 2005 – March 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ja
n-0
5
Ap
r-0
5
Ju
l-0
5
Oc
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Ja
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Ap
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Ju
l-0
6
Oc
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Ja
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Ap
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Ju
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Ap
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Ju
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Oc
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Ap
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Oc
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$0 - 300K
$300-500K
$500-750K
$750-1000K
$1,000K+-
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MONTHS
City of Monterey
Sales of Residential HomesMonterey, May 2011: 16 Units, Up 77.8% MTM, Up 33.3% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential HomesMonterey, May 2011: $506,000, Up 3.5% MTM, Down 14.4% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale PropertiesMonterey, May 2011: 118 Units, Down 1.7% MTM, Down 0.8% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory Monterey, May 2011: 3.7 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Salinas
Sales of Residential HomesSalinas, May 2011: 106 Units, Even 0% MTM, Down 5.4% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential HomesSalinas, May 2011: $225,000, Even 0% MTM, Down 10.0% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale PropertiesSalinas, May 2011: 551 Units, Down 2.0% MTM, Down 24.5% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory Salinas, May 2011: 2.3 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Carmel
Sales of Residential HomesCarmel, May 2011: 13 Units, Down 18.8% MTM, Down 18.8% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential HomesCarmel, May 2011: $825,000, Down 30.0% MTM, Down 26.7% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale PropertiesCarmel, May 2011: 196 Units, Up 6.5% MTM, Down 12.1% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory Carmel, May 2011: 9.3 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Monterey County
Sales of Residential HomesMonterey County, May 2011: 275 Units, Up 3.0% MTM, Down 13.5% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential HomesMonterey County, May 2011: $250,000, Down 2.0% MTM, Down 11.0% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
For Sale PropertiesMonterey County, May 2011: 1,811 Units, Up 0.3% MTM, Down 18.5% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory Monterey County, May 2011: 3.6 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Monterey CountyPreforeclosure: 714 • Auction: 985 • Bank Owned: 439
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 06/27/11
MontereyPreforeclosure: 49 • Auction: 65 • Bank Owned: 23
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 06/27/11
CarmelPreforeclosure: 22 • Auction: 36 • Bank Owned: 8
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 06/27/11
SalinasPreforeclosure: 304 • Auction: 478 • Bank Owned: 200
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 06/27/11
BakersfieldPreforeclosure: 1,361
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 06/27/11
BakersfieldAuction: 1,329
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 06/27/11
BakersfieldBank Owned: 1,072
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 06/27/11
2010 Annual Housing Market Summary
Home Sellers Planning to Repurchase at Historic Lows
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Net Cash To Sellers at Record Lows
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
$35,000
51%
4.1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
1
2
3
4
5
6% with Multiple Offers
# of Multiple offers (Average)
Multiple Offers Common: Buyers Face Highly Competitive Market
23%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%
More Buyers Pay with All Cash
Percent of All Cash Sales
13.4%
5.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Investment/Rental Property Vacation/Second Home
Investor Sales Continue to Grow
2010 Survey of Home Buyers
Home Buyers Who Looked at Newspaper/Magazine Ads to Search for a Home
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
All buyers 20% 12% 13% 13% 8%
First-time buyers 14% 12% 10% 10% 7%
Repeat buyers 21% 12% 14% 14% 9%
Internet buyers 15% 13% 10% 10% 6%
Traditional buyers 35% 11% 24% 24% 21%
Q. Did you look at newspaper/magazine ads to search for a home?
Became Aware of Home Purchased Through Agent
Q. Did you become aware of the home you purchased through a real estate agent?
85%
77%
91%
98%
83%
All Buyers
First-Time Buyers
Repeat Buyers
Internet Buyers
Traditional Buyers
0% 0% 0%3%
6% 7%5%
12%
37%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2009 2010
2009: Mean = 8.1 Median = 9
2010: Mean = 8.5, Median = 9
Scale: “1” = very easy, “10” = very difficult
Level of Difficulty to Obtain Financing(All Buyers)
Q. Please rate how easy of difficult it was to obtain financing on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being very easy and 10 being very difficult.
Buyers Who Know the Terms of Their Loan
91%
88%
91%
90%
89%
90%
12%
9%
10%
11%
10%
9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Short Sale
REO
Regular MarketSales
Repeat Buyers
First-Time Buyers
All Buyers
Yes No
Q. Do you know the terms of your loan?
2011 Survey of Home Buyers:The Agent Experience
Quick Facts
• 94% of buyers used an agent• 58% of buyers found their agent online• 56% of buyers interviewed at least 2 agents• 51% Googled their agent• 93% are receptive to receiving information via
social media• 54% would work with same agent again• 80% would find agent ratings beneficial
How Buyers Found Their Agents
Q. How did you find your real estate agent?
# of Agents Interviewed
144%
236%
312%
819%
Q. How many agents did you interview prior to selecting the agent you used in your recent home purchase?
Why Buyers Chose their Agent
1. Most responsive (28%)
2. Worked with agent before (18%)
3. First to respond (17%)
4. Most aggressive (16%)
5. Most knowledgeable (6%)
Q. What was the single most important reason for selecting the agent that you used in your recent home purchase?
Buyers Who Googled Their Agent- Historical Trend -
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011
Q. Did you Google your agent to find out information about him/her before the final selection?
Percent of Home Buyers Who “Google” Agent Before Final Selection
Q. Did you “Google” your agent to find out information about him/her before the final selection?
Method of Communicating With Agent- Preferred vs Actual -
Q. What was your preferred method of communicating with your agent? How did your agent actually communicate with you?
Preferred ActualE-mail 73% 70%Telephone 37% 50%Text message 32% 1%
Twitter 21% 0%
Facebook 14% 0%
In-person 6% 3%
Agent Response Time Is Important- Rating on 1 to 5 Scale -
Q. Please rate the importance of the agent’s response time in the decision on your final selection on a scale of one to five, with five being extremely important and one being not at all important.
Median Rating: 5
Expected vs Actual Response Time
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Instantly Within30mins.
Within 1hr.
Within 2hrs.
Within 4hrs.
Sameday
1business
day
Expected Actual
Expected vs. Actual Agent Response Time
2011
Surpassed expectations 14%
Met expectations 38%
Below expectations 48%
Q. Did your agent meet your expectations on response time?
Agents Need to Improve Response Time- Rating on 1 to 5 Scale -
Q. Did your real estate agent meet your expectations on response time? Please rate your agent’s response time on a scale of one to five, with five being agent exceedingly surpassed expectations and one being agent fell way below expectations.
Reasons for Satisfaction With Agent
1. Worked hard on my behalf (55%)2. Helped find the best home for me (55%)3. Always quick to respond (31%)4. Negotiated good deal on my behalf (29%)5. Listened to what we needed (20%)
Q. Why do you have that level of satisfaction with your agent?
Reasons for Dissatisfaction With Agent
1. Slow to respond (51%)
2. Didn’t communicate they way I wanted (19%)
3. Didn’t communicate effectively during transaction (14%)
4. Didn’t negotiate aggressively on my behalf (12%)
5. Wasted time with homes I’m not likely to buy (3%)
Q. Why do you have that level of satisfaction with your agent?
Most Buyers Would Work With Agent Again
Q. Would you work with the same agent again?
Advice to Agents from Home Buyers
1. Gain better understanding of where market is headed
2. Learn how to handle a distressed property transaction
3. Respond faster
4. Communicate how the client wants and better
5. Gain better understanding of where interest rates are headed
6. Provide more assistance in acquiring mortgage approval
7. Negotiate betterQ. What advice would you give to real estate agents to improve the process or the level of service?
California HousingMarket Forecast
California Housing Market Outlook
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f
SFH Resales (000s)
625.0 477.5 346.9 441.8 546.9 494.9 510.0
% Change 0.03% -23.6% -27.3% 27.3% 23.8% -9.5% 3.1%Median Price ($000s)
$522.7 $556.4 $560.3 $348.5 $275.0 $302.9 $300.0
% Change 16.0% 6.5% 0.7% -37.8% -21.1% 10.2% -1.0%
30-Yr FRM 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 5.2%
1-Yr ARM 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.7%
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Forecast Date: May 2011
Real Estate: It’s Time To Buy Again
“Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold.
After four years of plunging home
prices, the most attractive asset
class in America is housing.”
SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again” Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully
8 in 10 Americans Agree Buying a Home is the Best Investment One Can Make
SOURCE: Pew Research Center’s “Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst”
8 in 10 Renters Would Like to Buy in the Future
“…renters are hardly immune to the allure of homeownership, even in the face of the five-year decline in prices. Asked if they rent out of choice or because they cannot afford to buy a home, just
24% say they rent out of choice.”
SOURCE: Pew Research Center’s “Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst”
2011 Strat Planning Book Selections
www.car.org/marketdata Speeches
Speeches & Presentations
