led in road and street lighting - marketresearch · copyrights © yole développement sa and lux...

© 2013 1Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.

LED In Road & Street LightingMarket Analysis, Applications, Technology Trends & Industry Status

Sample

75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, FranceTel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83

www.yole.fr

11 rue Jean Macé, F-69600 Oullins, FranceTel : +33 686 086 239

www.luxfit.eu

http://www.yole.fr/

http://www.luxfit.eu/


Table Of Contents (1/4)

• About The Authors Of The Report P6

• Introduction To The Report P7

• Objectives Of The Report P8

• Executive Summary P9

• Overview Of Road And Street Lighting P30

– Applications

• Outdoor Lighting Applications

– Introduction

– Segmentation

• Road And Street Lighting

– Application Segmentation

– Product Segmentation

• From Watts to Lumens

– Market Data

• Market Size ($) And Volume (Units)

– What Do We Count?

• 2012 Data

– Overview

– Analysis By Region

» Overview

» Focus on BRIC

– Analysis By Application

– Actors Of The Business Chain

• Route To Market In Outdoor Lighting Projects

• End Users

• Specifiers And Influencers

– Overview

– Lighting Designers

• Installers

• Distributors

• Manufacturers

– Overview

– Focus On The Lighting Industry

– Other Players

– Supply Chain

• Conventional Road And Street Lighting Supply Chain

• Trends

– Market Drivers

• Safety, Security And Quality Of Life Aspects

• Environmental Aspects

• Economic Aspects

• Regulatory And Standardization Aspects

– Overview

– Example Of EN 13201



• The LED Value Proposition P68

– Conventional Luminaire vs. LED Luminaire: A New Approach ToLuminaire Design

• Conventional Luminaire vs. LED Luminaire

– Main Design Differences

– Comparison Of Cost Structure And Margin

– A Major Evolution In Product Design

– Managing The Light Source - Towards Modularity

– An Internal Revolution Within The Company

• LED Strengths And Weaknesses

– LED Technology Applied To Road And Street Lighting

• Drivers for LED Adoption In Road And Street Lighting

• The New Key Decision-Making Criterion: ROI

• Example Of Payback Calculation

• Focus On Mesopic Photometry: Towards A New Evaluation of LEDPerformance

• Focus On Melatonin Secretion

• Alternative Technologies

– Overview

– Summary Table

• Impact Of LED Adoption On The Poles And Brackets Industry

• Impact Of LED Adoption On The Controls Industry

• Focus On Telemanagement

• Focus On Smart Grids

• Lighting Design Requirements

– Designing In Road And Street Lighting

– Implications Of LED Lighting

– LED Technology Applied To Road And Street Lighting

• Operation And Maintenance Requirements

• Focus On Lifetime And The « Warranty War »

• Economic Requirements

• Regulation And Standards: Expectations And Fulfilment

• Luminaire Design Standardization: LED Replacement And Upgrade

• Next Technological Steps And Consequences

– LED Performance And Cost

– Towards Intelligent Lighting

• Focus On Glare Issue

– LED Light Engine Technology

• Definition & Characteristics

• Optics

• Modularity

• Thermal Management

– Overview Per Application

• Highway And Road Lighting

• Residential And Amenity Lighting

• Tunnel Lighting

• LED Supply Chain (1/2) P115

– Introduction

• LED Road And Street Lighting Supply Chain

– Overview

– What Change From Traditional Supply Chain?

• Competitive Landscape

– Traditional Players And New Entrants

– 2012 Market Share



• LED Supply Chain (2/2) P115

– Key Players Company Profiles

• Cooper

• CREE

• General Electric

• Osram

• Philips

• Schréder

• Toshiba

• Zumtobel

• Drivers for LED Technology P130

– Technology Drivers

• Expected Cost of LEDs

• Impact Of Technology Improvements

• Service And Upgrade

• Role Of The Component Technology Roadmap

• Trend: A New Automotive Lighting Approach

– Application Drivers

• Intelligent Lighting

• Less Lumen, More Current

• 100% LED In Tunnels

– Economic Drivers

• Energy Efficiency

• Impact Of Global Urbanization

• New Business Models

• Industry Trend: Toward Vertical Integration

• Market Metrics And Trends: The LED Revolution P148

– Lumen Consumption Forecast

• General Lighting

– Introduction

– IEA and SNL Models

– Model Developed in the Report

• Road and Street Lighting

– Overview

– Analysis Per Segment

– LED Adoption For Road And Street Lighting

• Adoption By Application

• Adoption By Region

– Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting (System Level)

• Total Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting

– Installed Base (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application

– Installed Base (2008 - 2020) - Split By Region

• LED Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting

– Market Volume (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application

– Market Volume (2008 - 2020) - Split by Region

– LED Luminaire ASP (2008 - 2020)

– Market Size (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application

– Market Size (2008 - 2020) - Split By Region

– Packaged LED Market For Road And Street Lighting (Device Level)

• Market Volume (2008 - 2020)

• Market Size (2008 - 2020)

• General Conclusion P170



• Appendix P173

– Glossary

– Index Of Companies And Organizations

• About Yole Développement and LED Activity P180


Introduction To The Report

• Within less than a decade, the LED technology has generated more turmoil in the lighting industry thananything that had happened in the previous century. All professionals agree today that what used to be aconservative, well-controlled market is undergoing a massive change, referred to as “the LED revolution”.

• Therefore, it is high time to take a close look at what is happening, and why. Whilst a lot of informationon the lighting industry at large is already available from various sources, each of its applicationsegments, be it indoor or outdoor, has its own way of adopting LEDs - and this is worth documenting.

• Outdoor lighting is no stranger to the revolution. As a matter of fact, it is today one of the two mostdynamic segments of the general lighting market for LED adoption.

• Within this, architectural lighting has been the early adopter. But the main carrier is now definitely road &street lighting. Historically the largest outdoor segment, it also offers now the highest prospects for LEDdevelopment in professional exterior lighting.

• Road and street lighting is also a very attractive market: EBIT levels are generally between 5 and 15%, andgrowth remains steady despite economic downturns.

• In that context, Yole Développement and Lux Fit represent the best fit, in order to provide professionalswith a tool for decision-making in this segment. The ambition of this report is nothing short of being theirbest ally, in the coming months, for their strategic choices in road and street lighting.

• Your feedback will be instrumental in making it even more powerful in future issues.


Objectives Of The Report

• To provide readers with a description and evolution of the road & street lighting market,technologies, and industry playground.

• To describe how LEDs are penetrating this market (drivers, strategies, players, technologies)and how they will deeply alter its structure.

• To provide readers with market metrics & dynamics, industry evolution forecasts andprojection from both business and technology standpoints.


The Road And Street Lighting MarketOverview

• Road and street lighting is one of the three mainsegments of outdoor professional lighting.

• Key figures (2012 estimations):

– Revenue: $XXB (lamps + luminaires).

– Volume: ~XXM units.

– Installed base: ~XXM light points.

– Electricity consumption: XXTWh.

• The three main applications in road and streetlighting correspond to six main product categories.

• Each application has the following weight in value:

– Highway and road: ~XX%.

– Residential and amenity: ~XX%.

– Tunnel: ~ XX%.

• The main market players are:

– End-users: Public authorities, private investors.

– Specifiers: Consultants, engineers, lighting designers.

– Installers: Contractors, utilities, facility managers.

– Suppliers: Distributors and manufacturers.

A traditional, profitable industry centered on public end-users.

Highway & Road

Residential Street

& Amenity

Tunnel

Functional Road Lantern

High Power Floodlight

Decorative Street Lantern

Heritage Lantern

Post-top Decorative / Architectural Luminaire

Tunnel Luminaire


Route To Market In Outdoor Lighting Projects

Supplier

Distributor Manufacturer

Installer

Contractor Utility Facility Manager

Specifier

Consultant ArchitectEngineering

BureauLighting Designer

End User

Local authorityHighway authority

Private investor

StakeholdersInfluencers Role

MotoristsCyclistsPedestrians

ResidentsVisitors

LobbiesPoliticiansLocal businesses

FUNDING

DESIGNINGSPECIFYING

INSTALLINGMAINTAINING

DELIVERINGSERVICING


End Users (1/2)

• Within public end-users1, different forces are at play:

– A technical competence, proposing decisions on rational criteria(typically the public lighting department of a city).

– A political competence, making decisions under the influence ofmore emotional criteria (pleasing voters being often on thehidden agenda).

• Therefore the complexity of decision-making must be fullygrasped and may vary greatly from one project to the other,even with the same players.

• Additionally, due to the specific functioning of publicadministrations, decision-making may result quite lengthydue to:

– Public budgeting cycles.

– Mandatory council votes for investments.

– Election cycles that may either hasten or delay decisions.

End users are mainly public.

1. The LUCI network groups over 60 cities around urban lighting, with the aim of sharing good practice and developing knowledge in this area

Street lighting inauguration in Muddebhihal, India

Public lighting as a political toolThe political agenda has a clear impact on public lighting.Most manufacturers report a recurring sales peak in theyear prior to a local election, and a subsequent drop inthe ensuing 1-2 years.Lighting is a political tool because:• It is very visible to voters.• It is a relatively easy and quick infrastructure

investment.• Compared to other investments (e.g.: building a

library), it requires a smaller budget.


The Road And Street Lighting Industry (2/2)

Leading outdoor luminaire suppliers by geographical region.

Latin America:

North America:

Middle East and Africa:

CIS countries: Asia / Pacific:

Focus on China

Focus on India

Focus on Pacific

Focus on Japan

Europe:

XX

XXXX

XXXX

XXXX

XX

XXXX

XX XX

XX XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

http://www.usa.philips.com/index.page

http://www.usa.philips.com/index.page


Safety, Security And Quality Of Life Aspects

• Safety remains the #1 driver of the road and street lighting market.It is translated into different areas of application:

– Traffic safety: A constant drive to improve visibility in order to preventaccidents.

– Users safety: A need to assure that the installed equipment will notcause injuries (falling luminaires…).

– Operators safety: In particular, electrical safety is a must.

• Security is also a strong driver in this segment. This appliesspecifically to the urban installations.

– Regular studies bring evidence and counter-evidence of lighting as acontributor to urban security at night… Debate continues!

• Quality of life has emerged in the last decade, although it has lostsome attention with the more recent upsurge of energy efficiency.

– Visual comfort is expected: With higher colour rendering, adequatecolour temperatures, glare control.

– Landscape integration is also a clear preoccupation: initially purelyfunctional, road and street lighting is increasingly integrating aestheticscriteria driving the segment’s expectations towards architecturaloutdoor lighting. Significantly, industrial designers are now involved inmost luminaire and pole development projects.

Pictures from GE

A case for white lightEven before the start of the « LEDrevolution », white light has emerged asa strong industry trend. It is valued for:• Its comfort – A colour temperature

closer to that of daylight, as opposedto the orange glow of sodium; andbetter colour rendering.

• Its safety – Improved peripheralvision and quicker response,evidenced by research.

• Its security – Improved facialrecognition, and clear preference byCCTV operators.


LED Light EngineThermal Management - Introduction

• Traditionally, there are 3 level of thermal management for LED-based lighting products… However, insome cases (Chip On Board or Chip On Fixture), there can be only 1 or 2 level(s) of thermal management.

• Heat is an issue in LED-based lighting systems as it can have 3 main consequences:

– Decrease of lumen output in the time.

– Derating of flux in the time.

– Increase of failure rates.

• Maximize Maintenance / Flux

• Minimize Failures REQUIREMENT =


Application Focus - Tunnel Lighting

• Tunnel lighting offers strong opportunities for LEDs. The #1 benefit of LEDs in tunnel is lifetime, a clearadvantage where maintenance generates heavy costs and disturbances (traffic interruption…).

• The LED technology cannot yet fully cover all of tunnel lighting. This is owed to the various zones,requiring different luminance levels. Until now, LED solutions have been feasible for the transit andinterior zones (3 & 4 on the diagram). Higher light output solutions are needed to meet the requirementsof the other zones, especially the access and threshold zones. LEDs can technically address these, but arenot yet economically feasible without a control system.

• Tunnel lighting represents a huge opportunity for LED solutions. For example:

Europe has over XXkm of road tunnels (Italy XXkm, Norway XXkm) / China has XXkm of road tunnels / The USA andCanada have XXkm of road tunnels.

• China and Italy have programmes to convert road tunnels to LED lighting:

– Autostrade per l’Italia has initiated in 2008 the replacement of XX luminaires in its XXkm of tunnels.

Cree’s The Edge TSP was selected

by Autostrade per l’Italia

for their tunnel refurbishments


LED Luminaire Market For Road And Street LightingMarket Volume (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application

• Residential, amenity and tunnel lighting was the main driver for LED luminaire market in 2012… However,the technology should really trigger highway and road lighting applications starting from 2013.

• LED luminaire market volume should boom until 2017 (XXMunits) and then stabilize until 2020 (XXMunits)due to decrease of replacement market (with the higher lifetime of LED-based system).

In 2012, LED luminaire for road and street lighting represented a market volume of nearly XXMunits.

Remark:

In our scenario, we assume a moderate

replacement rate of conventional

luminaires (i.e. replacement by LED

luminaires before end of life of

conventional luminaires) explaining market

volume stabilization by 2016 - 2017...

… However, should this replacement rate

get higher, market volume could continue

to increase until 2019 - 2020.


75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, FranceTel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83

Web: http://www.yole.fr

About Yole Développement and LED Activity

http://www.yole.fr/


Yole DéveloppementField of Research Activity

• Yole Développement is a market research and strategic consulting company founded in 1998.

• We are involved in the following areas:

• Our research is acquired by in-house personnel via open-ended discussions and interviews.

– We employ 32 full-time analysts with technical and marketing degrees

– Primary research includes over 3,500 interviews per year


Yole DéveloppementAround the World

We are present in Europe, North America and Asia

Lyon, France -

Headquarters

40% of our activity is in

Europe


Asia


North America

Yole Inc.Yole Japan

Yole Korea

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Yole Paris

System Plus

Consulting


Yole DéveloppementMission Statement – Knowledge-Based Company

• We help our customers develop their business through specific analysis and reports, including:

– Accurate market data, market segmentation and marketing analysis.

– Technical evaluation, technology cost and Cost of Ownership (COO) analysis.

– Patent portfolio analysis.

– Freedom to operate analysis.

– Strategic analysis to enhance company and business unit performance.

– Strategic development support (growth opportunities identification, M&A support, investor(s)identification,etc.).

– Advertising opportunities in Yole’s magazines, webinars and specific events.

• Our customers get measurable, operational results from our actions!


Supporting the Entire Value Chain

Yole consultants provide Market Analysis, Technology Evaluation and Business Plan Assessment for customers along the entire value chain


About Yole’s LED Analyst Team

Dr. Philippe ROUSSEL - Business Unit Manager

Dr. Philippe ROUSSEL holds a PhD in Integrated Electronics Systems from the

National Institute of Applied Sciences of Lyon (INSA - France). He joined Yole

Développement in 1998 and is Business Unit Manager of the Compound

Semiconductors, Photovoltaic, LED and Power Electronics department.

Dr. Eric VIREY - Senior Analyst

Dr. Eric VIREY holds a PhD in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute

of Grenoble (INPG - France). In the last 12 years, he has held various R&D,

engineering, manufacturing and marketing positions with Saint-Gobain. Most recently,

he was Market Manager at Saint-Gobain Crystals, in charge of Sapphire and

Optoelectronic products.

Pars MUKISH - Analyst

Pars MUKISH holds a master’s degree in Materials Science & Polymers and a

master’s in Innovation & Technology Management (EM Lyon - France). He works at

Yole Développement as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of LED and

Lighting Technologies, carrying out technical, economic and marketing analysis.

Previously, he was a Marketing and Techno-Economic Analyst for several years with

the CEA.


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