PEOPLE, PLANET, PROFIT A revolution in integrating local and global

for a resilient futurePeter Head CBE FREng FRSA

#tomorrowscity

__ Growing global instabilityContents

Section 1

Section 2 __ Global Action for transformational change

Section 3 __ From observatory to collaboratory

__ Innovation in law, finance and insurance

Section 4

Section 5 __ ‘City for Cities’ partnership

1. Growing global instability

Our Shrinking EarthPopulation growing at 80m per year

YEARHectares of Land Per Capita

USA 9.5 UK 5.8 China 2.3 India 1.3

China’s Ecological Footprint growing at 4% per year=100 million hectares of new land per year

Decreasing Food SupplyWorldwatch Institute, Washington DC, US

Atmospheric Carbon DioxideMeasured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii

Industrial development is polluting and wasteful

Water-Food-Energy crisis by mid-century…beginning now

Mounting costs of health and social care for aging populations

180,000 people per day moving into cities

Cities becoming more vulnerable to violent weather and other threats

Aging infrastructure and declining attractiveness of cities in developed economies

Congested transportation systems

2. Global action for transformational change

SDSN Action Agenda Report

In 2013 China changed the legal constitution for development towards the “Ecological Civilisation”

• To take a scientific approach to development

• To make Ecological Progress

China now has an environmental court and a circular economy law

Global Action - China

Agro-forestry in the Upper Loess Plateau China over 20,000 sq km Hope-A film by John D Liu Trust Advisory Board

The Circular Economy THE ELLEN MACARTHUR FOUNDATION

‘The evolution of our economy from an increasingly resource-constrained ‘take-make-dispose’ model towards one that is circular and re- generative by intention poses a huge opportunity for business innovation. This report highlights the significant economic opportunities, both immediate and long-term, that are available across the EU. The report offers the catalyst for a sector wide re-design revolution’.

Moving from Ownership to Services

‘Innovative business models, especially changing

from ownership to performance-based payment models, are instrumental in translating products designed for reuse into attractive value propositions ‘Enablers to improve cross-cycle and cross-sector performance include higher transparency, alignment of incentives, and the establishment of industry standards for better cross-chain and cross-sector collaboration; access to financing and risk management tools; regulation and infrastructure development; and—last but not least—education, both to increase general awareness and to create the skill base to drive circular innovation’.

Materials and Waste –Systems ApproachHillier, Graham. “Construction Products for a Sustainable Society” Sustainability - Steel and the Environment Conference. 2 November 2004

ENERGY WATER

FOOD RAW MATERIALS

By 2030 world needs 30% more water, 40% more energy & 50% more food

Resource Efficiency

1. A Regional Approach Is Fundamental2. Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated regional planning, build regional capacity and shared confidence to act3. Must unite economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape interventions with a common/credible economic analyses

Approach to Sustainable Regions

Greenhousegases

Greenhousegases

Greenhousegases

Solid waste

Degraded waters

Manufactured goods

INTERLAND

Manufactured goods

Fuels andRaw materials

Water

Food

Licence Form

Region

Application nameOrganisation

Partnership agreement

Technical support service

Earth(in solar system) Simulator

Region Simulator

www.icesfoundation.orgwww.ecosequestrust.org

In the last twenty years, the world has

• Deployed a global, high-bandwidth network

• Created a population of over 1 billion Internet users

• And another population of some 6 billion mobile telephones

• Embedded some billions of sensors in our environment and infrastructure

• Invented globally-integrated business processes

Computer processing capacity

Crowd-sourced data Apps and sensors

The system of community life　　　　　　　　　

Syn City City resources IIER Economics

EFI Forestry PROFILE Soil-agriculture

Climate model data

Earth observation and ground sensors for land use data

Soil and geologyPROFILE

Government data eg demographics, employmentCrowd-sourced agent Data – mobility 4G 5G 6G

Resource flows Sankey Diagrams

Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure

transport

logistics and waste management

sewerage, potable and non-potable water energy

agriculture, landscape and urban design

Investment of 1% GDP per year in public transport metro

Transformation of a city economy through replacing traffic with walking, cycling -Seoul

3. From observatory to collaboratory

Surat in Gujarat

City of Surat, Gujarat

Diamonds, models, design and value

$

From Diamonds to City Collaboratory

$

From Diamonds to City Collaboratory

Value to business and society of successful

improvement in energy-water-food security,

clean air and quality of life

$

Regional collaborative intelligence

45

Education

Collaborative planning and design for investment

Ecology Health

Air Water Soil Quality

Human Healthwell-being nutrition, life-span, healthcare costs

Labour- skill, job availability, salary, productivity

Training & Education-skill and knowledge through learning and education

Human agentsand their well-being

Economy

Asset Value

Goods

High quality Inclusive resilient growth

“Green, circular, Knowledge economy”

Community Leadership and Cultural Planning

www.londonlsdc.org/londonleaders

At COP17

4. Innovation in law, financeand insurance

The Open-Source, Agent-based Urban-Rural

Resource and Economics Systems Platform Model

Integrated urban systems design/planning and procurement for sustainability and resilience

Now Where we could be with systems thinking and performance based

procurement

• Sequential and silo-ed approach – conventional economic assessment dominates how we design (cities, policies, technology interventions etc)

• Short term political and finance cycles dominate economic plane

• Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy, urban and rural viewed separately)

• Social benefit at the end of the line – abstract relationship to earlier planes .

• INTEGRATED DESIGN• INTEGRATED PLANNING• ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT

DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN

DESIGN

PLANNING

DEVELOPMENT

OutputSuccessful

improvement in energy-water-food

security and quality of lifess

“Project portfolio”

Evidence-based ‘trusted’ independent model

Regional Funding for Projects- ‘Green Growth’ ‘Climate Adaptation’ ‘Social Impact Bonds’

Sources of capital-MNB’s Pension Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds

Return Investment

Assurance

“High quality inclusive resilient growth”

OASIS

Global ICES ESA InsuranceCatastrophic Risk Modelling

TEST “Accelerator Scale-Up Fund”

Build open source platform& set it up in demo regions using seed funding

Demonstration region investments enable pay back of set-up costs plus interest & attract funds for more regions

Platform development

funders to get use of and value from

platform

• DFID• Climate KIC• ESA• China

Government &regions

• MNB’s$ $

IndependentFund Manager

5. ‘City for Cities’ partnership

Target Trust Demonstrator Network

CHINANDRCMOHURDAPECEco Demo Regions

International Centre Chongqing University

UK

Demo region

Dorset LEP

IFS

DFID

Cities AllianceCountry programme5 Centres

African Centre for CitiesAfrican Urban Research Initiative

Mainland EuropeDenmark,

ICLEI GIZ Climate KIC-IFS

GlobalUNEPUN HabitatUNDP

UNSDSNUCCRN

AmericasDemo regionsRio de JaneiroUSA city

MongoliaDemo region

UN ADB FCO

Regional collaborative intelligence

City of London Companies can help to design the sector cockpits

and help make the platform easy

to use by different sectors.

They can become Partners and

build commercial Apps for the

Platform.

A City for Cities

App Store

City businesses can lead and be first movers with the platform and join us on the journey to help accelerate the transition.

Recreate the opportunity the industrial revolution brought to the city through the “resilience revolution” by working with leading science, design and culture organisations, starting in demonstration regions.

City for Cities

Thank you