lecture 1: business model & customer development

The Lean LaunchPad

Lecture 1: Business Models and Customer Development

Steve Blank

Jon Feiber

Jon Burke

http://i245.stanford.edu/

What’s A Company?

What’s A Company?

A business organization which sells a product or service in exchange for revenue

and profit

How Are Companies Organized?

How Are Companies Organized?

Companies are organized around Business Models

What’s a Business Model?

What’s a Business Model?

A business model describes all the parts of the company necessary to make money

What About My Technology?


Your technology is one of the many critical pieces necessary to build a company.

It is part of the “Value Proposition”


Customers don’t care about your technology

They are trying to solve a problem

What’s A Startup?

What’s A Startup?

A startup is a temporary organization designed to search for a repeatable

and scalable business model

How to Build A Startup

Idea

Business Model

Size Opportunity

Customer Development


Idea Business Model(s)

Size of the Opportunity

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation


Idea Size of the Opportunity

Business Model(s)

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

Theory Practice

Business Model(s)




Business Model(s)

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

• Web startups get the product in front of customers earlier

Business Model(s)




Business Model(s)

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

Business Model(s)


buzzgroup

?A business model describes all the parts of the company necessary to make money

?what are those parts? what parts is a business model composed of?

Business Model Canvas

to describe, challenge, design, and invent business models more systematically

building blocks 9

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

images by JAM

VALUE PROPOSITIONS

images by JAM

CHANNELS

images by JAM

CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS

images by JAM

REVENUE STREAMS

images by JAM

KEY RESOURCES

images by JAM

KEY ACTIVITIES

images by JAM

KEY PARTNERS

images by JAM

COST STRUCTURE

images by JAM

images by JAM

customer segments

key partners

cost structure

revenue streams

channels

customer relationships

key activities

key resources

value proposition

images by JAM

CANVAS OVERLAY

images by JAM

OFFER

CHANNELS


CUSTOMERSEGMENTS

REVENUE STREAMSCOST STRUCTURE

KEYACTIVITIES

KEYPARTNERS

KEYRESOURCES

images by JAM

CANVAS OVERLAYOFFER

CHANNELS


CUSTOMERSEGMENTS

REVENUE STREAMSCOST STRUCTURE

KEYACTIVITIES

KEYPARTNERS

KEYRESOURCES


building block

building block

building block

building block

building block

building block

building block

building block

building block

building block

building blockbuilding

block

building block

building block

45

illustration

?why should some of the smartest scientists in the world waste their time thinking about a business model for coffee?

!not just because most scientists drink a lot of coffee. we can learn a lot from innovative business models across industries

how much did the cost of home coffee consumption change for Swiss households over the last couple of years?

600% to 800% more

Nespresso changed the

business (model) for

espresso

RESULTS

one of the fastest-growing businesses in the Nestlé group

average growth of 30% p.a. since 2000

over 3 billion CHF annual revenue with 1 product line(3.2 bio USD)

57

buzz group

?Discuss and describe how you would design a business model around Nespresso’s invention

60

?

? ?

?

?

??

?

?

61

Nespresso machines

retail mailorder

Nespresso

.com

callcenter

Nespresso stores

households

business

1 x machinesales

repetitive pod sales

distribution

channels

coffeeproduction facilites

production

B2C distributi

onbrand

marketing

brandpatents

machine manufacture

r

production

B2C

distributi

onbrand

marketing

Nespresso club

brandbrand

Nespresso pods

but Nespresso almost failed in 1987 due to a nonperforming business model

63

Nespresso system

offices

joint venture with

manufacturer

machine

manufacture

r

?what is the most powerful about using a shared language, such as the Business Model Canvas?

buzz group

71

?

? ?

?

?

??

?

?

possible alternatives

73

radiation-freedetection of breast cancer

hospitals

74

proprietary IP medical device manufacturers

75

?

? ?

?

?

??

?

?

But,Realize They’re Hypotheses

9 Guesses

Guess Guess

Guess

Guess

GuessGuess

Guess

GuessGuess

How Does This Really Work?

Stanford Lean LaunchPad Class

8 Weeks From an Idea to a Business

MammOpticsFinal project presentation for E 245 Winter 2011

MammOpticsInitial Idea

Breast cancer

Leading cause of cancer in women190,000 diagnosis every year US41,000 deaths every year USIncreasing diagnosis rates

Mammography

15%-25% false negatives rate25% false positives rateRequires X-ray radiationLow resolution

Novel technology based on RF-modulated optical spectroscopy

MammOptics

- Earlier detection- Non-radiative- Non-invasive

MammOpticsTechnology Comparison

RiskInvasiveness

Resolution

False Pos.

False Neg.

Device Cost

Time Require

d

MammOptics

Mammography

High High .6 cm 25% 30% 20-50k 20 min.

MRI Medium Medium .1 cm 70% 5% 1000k 45 min.

Ultra-Sound Very Low Very Low >.6 cm >30% >40% 5-15k 20 min.

I.I.T.Y.I.W.H.T.K.Y

MammOpticsBusiness Model Canvas 1 of 4

Radiation-freeEarlier detectionNon-invasive

Pioneering radiologists inhospitals

Direct sales to hospitals

Strong clinical dataTrainingMaintenance

Product DevelopmentClinical trialsOperating Costs Capital equipment

sales and disposable item

Product DevelopmentIPClinical trialsFDA

IP Leading doctorsTechnical Expertise

HospitalsLeading doctors3rd party manufacturersDistributors


Radiation-freeEarlier detectionNon-invasive

Pioneering radiologists inhospitals

Direct sales to hospitals


Product DevelopmentClinical trialsOperating Costs Capital equipment

sales and disposable item




Initi

al guess

Initi

al guess

Initi

al guess

Initi

al guess


Test:Customer segment

Value proposition

Finding the right customerFrom radiologists to gynecologists

MammOpticsExcursions into hospitals

Leading doctors

Patients

Hospital Managers

Technicians

Debra Ikeda Jason Davies

Jafi Alissa LipsonSunita Pal

6 women >40 8 women <40

Alicia X-ray mammography

Paul BillingsHolly V. Gautier

MammOpticsHospital purchasing decision tree

MammOpticsHospital purchasing decision tree

Hospitals

Complex purchasing decision

tree. Several saboteours

MammOpticsPrivate practice purchasing decision tree

MammOpticsPrivate practice purchasing decision tree

Private practice

Faster adoption rate

Attractive value proposition✔

Pioneering DoctorsHospitalsOB/GYNsPCPs

Direct Sales to doctors


Product DevelopmentClinical trialsOperating Costs

Capital Equipment Sales and disposable item



Hospitals (Capital Spending Committee)Leading doctors3rd party manufacturersDistributorsResearch Hospitals

Doctors:Earlier detectionPriceAccuracy

Patients:Radiation FreeNon-Invasive



Direct Sales to doctors










How do we get to our customer?

Need sensitivity and specificity

Getting to our customerThe world of direct sales and medical marketing

MammOpticsInterviews

Breast Cancer Advocacy Groups

OB/GYNs

FDA/Clinical Trials

Medical Sales

Be Bright PinkJennifer Glover

Dr. Cindy WooDr. Jags Powers

Dr. Aaron Shuvkan

Katrina BellTanay Dudhela

Jed Hwang

Phyllis WhitelyCarl Simpson

MammOpticsMarketing

Access to ACOG by former member

Strong influence on doctors via ACOG Standard of Care

Strongly influenced by

KOLs

MammOpticsMarketing

Researchers conducting

important clinical trials

Researchers with numerous

publications

Outsourced survey research

Researchers with strong peer

recommendations

MammOpticsMarketing

Focus on prominent journals Need two big

publications

Choose KOL as Principal Investigators (PI)

MammOpticsMarketing

Effective method for educating doctors

Doctors required to attend workshops

Workshop must be approved by ACOG

Taught by objective medical experts

MammOpticsMarketing

ACOG Annual Clinical Meeting

Miami Breast Cancer Conference

Opportunity for feedback from

doctors

MammOpticsMarketing

Trusted information source for patients

Critical opinion leader for technology adoption

Access to media outlets

MammOpticsMarketing

IndividualDoctors

Purchasing Administrato

rs

High value medical products

(e.g. cardiovascular stents)

Commodity medical products

(e.g. latex gloves)

• Doctor education• Direct feedback from doctors• Very expensive

• No doctor education• No customer feedback• Inexpensive

Direct Sales

Distributors

MammOpticsChannel Strategies and Costs

Individual Doctors

Purchasing Administrato

rs

Channel Strategies and CostsMammOptics

5 dedicated sales people$150,000 each/year

Hire nurses or technicianswith establishedrelationships

Early adopter feedback

Continue with core group of sales people

Use women’s healthcare equipment distributor

Already established network of customers

Sales strategy 1 Sales strategy 2

MammOpticsPricing Strategy

Equipment Lease model

Per-use model

Consumable

Cost of the device

Service per year

Per-use fee

Consumable

$50,000

$3,000

0

0

$5,000

$10,000

0

0

$5,000

0

$50

0

$25,000

0

0

$20

MammOpticsPricing Strategy

Equipment Lease model

Per-use model

Consumable

Cost of the device

Service per year

Per-use fee

Consumable

$50,000

$3,000

0

0

$5,000

$10,000

0

0

$5,000

0

$50

0

$25,000

0

0

$20

Approved by

customers and

investors

ACOGACS

Doctor specialty

committee

Hospital Administrati

on

Technician

RadiologistMammography

MammOpticsCustomer Workflow

Current market Insurance

ACOGACS

Doctor specialty

committee


on

Technician



Current market

But what would happen if we replace mammography?

Insurance

ACOGACS

Doctor specialty

committee


on

Technician

Radiologist

Mammography


Breast Radiologists

Technicians Hospitals

Loss of jobs

Loss of jobs Eliminates loss leaderPuts emphasis on

biopsies

Insurance

ACOGACS

Doctor specialty

committee


on

Technician

Radiologist

Mammography


Insurance

ACOGACS

Doctor specialty

committee


on

Technician

Radiologist

Mammography


InsuranceSame cost as mammography

($140)Reduced number of biopsies

($1000)

ACOG/ACSImproved healthcare(mammography weak

technique)

Insurance

ACOGACS

Doctor specialty

committee


on

Technician

Insurance

Radiologist

Mammography


Insurance

Doctor specialty

committee


on

Technician



ACOGACS

MammOptics

Patient

PCPOB/GYN

Insurance

Doctor specialty

committee


on

Technician

Radiologist

Mammography


ACOGACS

MammOptics

Patient

PCPOB/GYN


on

Technician

Radiologist

Mammography

MammOptics

Patient

PCPOB/GYN

PCP OB/GYNsIncreased revenue

More complete patient care

PatientImproved healthcare

Comfort

MammOpticsRevenue

ACOGACS

Doctor specialty

committee


on

Technician

Insurance

Radiologist

Mammography


MammOptics

Patient

PCPOB/GYN

OB/GYNsPCPs

Direct Sales to hospitalsDistributor

Strong clinical dataTrainingMaintenanceConferencesCME courses

Product DevelopmentClinical trialsOperating CostsMarketing Costs

Capital Equipment Sales and disposable itemPer use fees

Product DevelopmentIPClinical trialsFDAPublishing


Leading doctorsKey Opinion Leaders3rd party manufacturersDistributorsBreast Cancer FoundationsACOGACS




OB/GYNsPCPs





Product DevelopmentIPClinical trialsFDAReimbursementPublishing






Learned how to reach the customer

How do we build a company based on this?

Building the companyThe backstage of a medical device company

MammOpticsInterviews

FDA Clinical Trials

Manufacturing

Venture Capitalists

Reimbursement

Stanford Statistics Steve AxelrodMarga Ortigas-

Wedekind

Nick MourlasDon

Archambault

Shannon BergstedtAli Habib

Dana MeadBill Starling

Doctors/Sales

Dr. Aron Shuftan

Jed HwangMichael J. Nohr

Manufacturing

MammOpticsPartners

Choose manufacturing facility close to

home

Manufacturing Reimbursement

MammOpticsPartners

Difficult to get coverage for new product.

Manufacturing

MammOpticsPartners

Reimbursement PartnersMammOptics

Insurances

CPT Codes$75-$150

MammOpticsPartners

Manufacturing

FDA Clinical Trials

Reimbursement

510K vs. PMALargest cost

Biggest financial risk

Clinical Trials

12/4/2009

Stage 1Pilot trials

50 patients$600K

MammOptics

6 months

FeasibilityComparison

with mammograph

y

Clinical Trials

12/4/2009

MammOptics

6 months 15 months

Stage 1Pilot trials

Stage 2Interim trials

500 patients$7.2M

Prove superior safety-

efficacy & sensitivity

Clinical Trials

12/4/2009

MammOptics

6 months 15 months

Stage 1Pilot trials


24 months

Stage 3FDA

pivotal trials1500

patients$20.5M

FDA class II, 510(K) w/ trials

Focus on superiority &

economic end-points

Clinical Trials

12/4/2009

MammOptics

6 months 15 months

Stage 1Pilot trials


Stage 3FDA

pivotal trials

Stage 4Post-

market studies2000 patients$26.8M

Specific Cat III CPT/ACP CodesMarket traction

24 months24 months

Clinical Trials

12/4/2009

MammOptics

6 months 15 months

Stage 1Pilot trials


Stage 3FDA

pivotal trials$600K

$7.2M

$20.5M

$26.8M

Stage 4Post-

market studies

24 months 24 months

MammOpticsPartners

MammOpticsPartners

Manufacturing

FDA Clinical Trials

Reimbursement

Financial timeline

Funding

$10M

$15M

2012

Series A $3.5 MM

Cash

Rese

rve

Clin

ical

Mile

stones

$5M

Initialize

Desi

gn

Mile

stones

Reg

ula

tory

/ IP

M

ilest

ones

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016

Series B $9 MM

System

2017Q1 Q2Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018Q3

Launch

Series C $30.5 MM

$30M

$20M

Regulatory / Clinical

Series D $35

MM

M&A / IPO $50 MM

$40M

129 12/4/2009

Proof of Concep

t

Pilot Studie

s

IC and Processing Patents

Marketable Product

Provisional Patent

Beta-Versio

n Testin

g

Application and

System Patents

IRB / IDE

Clinical Results

Second Release

Initial Product Launch

Specific Codes (Cat. I CPT / APC)

Non-Specific Codes

1st Release

Test

2nd Release Test

Publication

Post-Market Clinical Studies

Beta Prototype

US Interim Trials

FDA – Class II – 510 (k) with Clinical Trials

Publication

Financial / Operations Timeline

Cat III

CPT

US Pivotal Clinical Trials

Laboratory

Prototype

Technology

Licensing

MammOpticsMammOptics

Financial timeline

$10M

$15M

2012

Cash

Rese

rve

Clin

ical

Mile

stones

$5M

Initialize

Desi

gn

Mile

stones

Reg

ula

tory

/ IP

M

ilest

ones

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016 2017Q1 Q2Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018Q3

$30M

$20M

$40M

130 12/4/2009

Proof of Concep

t

Provisional Patent


Technology

Licensing


$10M

$15M

2012

Series A $3.5 MM

Cash

Rese

rve

Clin

ical

Mile

stones

$5M

Initialize

Desi

gn

Mile

stones

Reg

ula

tory

/ IP

M

ilest

ones

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016

System

2017Q1 Q2Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018Q3

$30M

$20M

$40M

131 12/4/2009

Proof of Concep

t

Provisional Patent

Beta-Versio

n Testin

g

Laboratory

Prototype

Beta Prototype

Technology

Licensing


Pilot Studie

s


$10M

$15M

2012

Series A $3.5 MM

Cash

Rese

rve

Clin

ical

Mile

stones

$5M

Desi

gn

Mile

stones

Reg

ula

tory

/ IP

M

ilest

ones

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016

Series B $9 MM

System

2017Q1 Q2Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018Q3

$30M

$20M

$40M

132 12/4/2009


Marketable Product

Beta-Versio

n Testin

g

Application and

System Patents

IRB / IDE

Beta Prototype


Pilot Studie

s


Laboratory

Prototype


$10M

$15M

2012

Cash

Rese

rve

Clin

ical

Mile

stones

$5M

Desi

gn

Mile

stones

Reg

ula

tory

/ IP

M

ilest

ones

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016

Series B $9 MM

System

2017Q1 Q2Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018Q3

Series C $30.5 MM

$30M

$20M


$40M

133


Application and

System Patents

IRB / IDE

Cat III

CPT

Second Release

1st Release

Test

US Interim Trials US Pivotal Clinical Trials

Publication


Pilot Studie

s


$10M

$15M

2012

Cash

Rese

rve

Clin

ical

Mile

stones

$5M

Desi

gn

Mile

stones

Reg

ula

tory

/ IP

M

ilest

ones

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016 2017Q1 Q2Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018Q3

Launch

Series C $30.5 MM

$30M

$20M


Series D $35

MM

$40M

134 12/4/2009

Clinical Results

Second Release


Non-Specific Codes

2nd Release Test

Publication

US Interim Trials


Publication




$10M

$15M

2012

Cash

Rese

rve

Clin

ical

Mile

stones

$5M

Desi

gn

Mile

stones

Reg

ula

tory

/ IP

M

ilest

ones

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016 2017Q1 Q2Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018Q3

Launch

$30M

$20M


Series D $35

MM

M&A / IPO $50 MM

$40M

12/4/2009

Clinical Results



Non-Specific Codes

Publication



Financial / Operations TimelineMammOpticsMammOptics

$10M

$15M

2012

Series A $3.5 MM

Cash

Rese

rve

Clin

ical

Mile

stones

$5M

Initialize

Desi

gn

Mile

stones

Reg

ula

tory

/ IP

M

ilest

ones

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016

Series B $9 MM

System

2017Q1 Q2Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018Q3

Launch

Series C $30.5 MM

$30M

$20M


Series D $35

MM

M&A / IPO $50 MM

$40M

136 12/4/2009

Proof of Concep

t

Pilot Studie

s


Marketable Product

Provisional Patent

Beta-Versio

n Testin

g

Application and

System Patents

IRB / IDE

Clinical Results

Second Release



Non-Specific Codes

1st Release

Test

2nd Release Test

Publication


Beta Prototype

US Interim Trials


Publication


Cat III

CPT


Laboratory

Prototype

Technology

Licensing


Radiation-freeEarlier detectionNon invasive

Pioneering DoctorsHospitals

Direct Sales to hospitals







MammOpticsBusiness Model Canvas 1

Radiation-freeEarlier detectionNon invasive








HospitalsLeading doctors3rd party manufacturersDistributorsResearch Hospitals









Hospitals (Capital Spending Committee)Leading doctors3rd party manufacturersDistributorsResearch HospitalsBreast Cancer Foundations

Doctors:Earlier detectionPriceAccuracyImmediate Results



OB/GYNsPCPs





Product DevelopmentIPClinical trialsFDAReimbursementPublishing






OB/GYNsPCPs





Product DevelopmentIPClinical trialsFDAReimbursement Publishing


KOLs3rd party manufacturersDistributorsBreast Cancer FoundationsACOGACS




OB/GYNsPCPs




Per use fees



KOLs3rd party manufacturersDistributorsBreast Cancer FoundationsACOGACSClinical trial designer




OB/GYNsPCPs




Per use fees



KOLs3rd party manufacturers(local)Breast Cancer FoundationsACOGACSClinical trial designer




Customer Development

Get Out of the Building and Search for the Business Model

The founders

^

The Customer Development Process

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

Customer Creation

Company Building

Pivot

The Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

• Smallest feature set that gets you the most …

- orders, learning, feedback, failure…

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

Customer Creation

Company Building

Pivot

A Pivot is the change of one or more Business Model Canvas Components

The Pivot

• The heart of Customer Development

• Iteration without crisis

• Fast, agile and opportunistic

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

Customer Creation

Company Building

Pivot

Pivot Cycle Time Matters

• Speed of cycle minimizes cash needs

• Minimum feature set speeds up cycle time

• Near instantaneous customer feedback drives feature set

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

Customer Creation

Company Building

Pivot

The Customer Development ProcessCustomer Discovery

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

Customer Creation

Company Building

Bus Model Canvas

Extract Hypotheses Test Problem Test Solution Pivot or

Proceed

The Customer Development ProcessCustomer Validation

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

Customer Creation

Company Building

Get Ready to Sell Sell, Sell, Sell Positioning Pivot or

Proceed

Blog Your Progress

How?

• Customer Development– The Process

• Narrative– Interviews– Surveys– Videos– Prototypes

• Business Model Canvas– Scorekeeping

• Real-time Feedback• Physical Reality Checks

– Skype– Face-to-face

We Made Students Blog Their Progress

It Changed Everything

Interview

Photos Videos

Surveys

Interview& Photos

Competitive Analysis

Key Findings

A/B Test Results

Key Question

Strategy

Business Model Canvas as the Scorecard

Market Type

Four Types of Markets

Type of MarketChanges Everything

• Market– Market Size– Cost of Entry– Launch Type– Competitive

Barriers– Positioning

• Sales– Sales Model– Margins– Sales Cycle– Chasm Width

Clone Market

Existing Market Resegmented Market

New Market

• Finance• Ongoing Capital• Time to Profitability

• Customers• Needs• Adoption

Definitions: Four Types of Markets

• Clone Market– Copy of a U.S. business model

• Existing Market– Faster/Better = High end

• Resegmented Market– Niche = marketing/branding driven– Cheaper = low end

• New Market– Cheaper/good enough, creates a new class of product/customer– Innovative/never existed before

Clone Market

Existing Market Resegmented Market

New Market

Size of Opportunity

Market/Opportunity Analysis

How Big is It?: Market/Opportunity Analysis– Identify a Customer and Market Need– Size the Market– Competitors– Growth Potential

How Big is the Pie?Total Available Market

Total Available Market

• How many people would want/need

the product?

• How large is the market be (in $’s) if they all bought?

• How many units would that be?

How Do I Find Out?

• Industry Analysts – Gartner, Forrester

• Wall Street Analysts – Goldman, Morgan

How Big is My Slice?Served Available Market

• How many people need/can use product?

• How many people have the money to buy the product

• How large would the market be (in $’s) if they all bought?


How Do I Find Out?• Talk to potential customers

Served Available

Market

TotalAvailableMarket

How Much Can I Eat?Target Market

• Who am I going to sell to in year 1, 2 & 3?

• How many customers is that?

• How large is the market be (in $’s) if they all bought?


How Do I Find Out?• Talk to potential customers

• Identify and talk to channel partners

• Identify and talk to competitors

TotalAvailableMarket Target

Market

ServedAvailableMarket

Market Size: Summary

• Market Size Questions:– How big can this market be? – How much of it can we get?– Market growth rate– Market structure (Mature or in flux?)

• Most important: Talk to Customers and Sales Channel• Next important: Market size by competitive approximation

– Wall Street analyst reports are great• And : Market research firms Like Forester, Gartner

Team Deliverable by Tomorrow

1. Hypotheses for each part of business model2. Test for each of the hypotheses

What constitutes a pass/fail signal for the test (e.g. at what point would you say your hypotheses wasn’t even close to correct?

3. Plan to get out of the building to test the hypotheses

• Summarized in a 5 Minute PowerPoint Presentation– Business Model Canvas– Market Size– Getting out of the building plan

Don’t Over Think Your Hypotheses

Sweet Sensors

Yu Xiang and Yi Lu, Nature Chem. 3, 697-703 (2011).

Glucose Monitor:

• Widely available• Cheap• Quantitative

information• $10 billion market

However, it can detect only one target: glucoseand at very high concentrations

We have developed a novel technology to use any glucose monitor without modifications to detect a wide range of non-glucose targets at very low concentrations(such as diseases (e.g., TB), heavy metal ions (e.g., Pb, Hg), organic toxins, bacteria, viruses and cancers)

Examples

Market size

- 300 million patients worldwide

- Required HbA1C testing every 60-90 days

- Available in-home HbA1C tests today are $100/10 tests

- Assuming $1 per test, TAM = $1.2 billion

- Assuming 50% people have the access to a HbA1c test, SAM = $600 million

- Assuming we can capture 20% of SAM (high-end diabetics and early adopters), Target market = $120 million

Total available market = $1.2 billion

Serviceable Available Market = $600 million

Target market = $120 million

Market Size

• Growing market– Aging population– Living Style & Diets

– Chronic disease

• Driving factors– Healthcare costs– Reimbursement– Healthcare labor shortage

Total Available market 170M (US & EU5)

$25B

Target market 3.5M (Resistant Hypertension)$500M

Diabetics

Sweet SensorsYi Lu, Tian LanNeil KaneChris Sorensen


Clinicians (in rural area)

Triage nurses

Pre-diabetics

Product supports

Patient network/community

Retailers (Walgreen)

Online vendors (Amazon)

Direct sales

Disposable test kit (used repeatedly on a regular basis)

At home

Convenient

Less exposure to infectious diseases in the hospital

Cheaper

More frequent

Better indicator of health (diabetic management)

Conferences

Product R&D

QC

Marketing

IP

Personnel

Glucose monitor manufacturers

Kit manufacturers

Reagent suppliers

Reagents

Manufacture

Licensing

FDA certification?

Diabetics

Sweet SensorsYi Lu, Tian LanNeil KaneChris Sorensen

Action Plan

Clinicians (in rural area)

Triage nurses

Pre-diabetics

Product supports

Patient network/community

Retailers (Walgreen)

Online vendors (Amazon)

Direct sales

Disposable test kit (used repeatedly on a regular basis)

At home

Convenient

Less exposure to infectious diseases in the hospital

Cheaper

More frequent

Better indicator of health (diabetic management)

Conferences

Product R&D

QC

Marketing

IP

Personnel

Glucose monitor manufacturers

Kit manufacturers

Reagent suppliers

Reagents

Manufacture

Licensing

FDA certification?

General methodology for

adding fluorine to lead compounds of

interest

The Business Model Canvas

Accessibility (RCY)PuritySpeedPET/SPECTMultiplatformSensitivity (nca)Specific compounds

IPPoP dataRegulatory planUnderstanding of the regulatory process

Contract cGMP precursor manufactureSalary, RentsClinical trials

SOPs for precursors and drugsRecruit clinical sitesIn vivo animal studiesDevelop regulatory plan for pre IND meetingID cGMP CROFund-raising

cGMP manufacturerRadiopharmaciesNuclear Medicine and Radiology departments

Technical Assistance (Image Atlas)FDA regulatory support

Radiopharmacies

Equipment producers

Prescribing physicians

Radiologist who perform studies

Sales of intermediates

Technology license

Product license (royalty)

Direct sales of precursor

R&D and clinical studies presented in journals and meetings

Drug developers

Pharmaceutical development companies

IPPoP data

Radiologists

Technical assistance

General methodology for

adding fluorine to lead compounds of

interest

The Business Model Canvas

Accessibility (RCY)PuritySpeedPET/SPECTMultiplatformSensitivity (nca)Specific compounds

IPPoP dataRegulatory planUnderstanding of the regulatory process

Contract cGMP precursor manufactureSalary, RentsClinical trials

SOPs for precursors and drugsRecruit clinical sitesIn vivo animal studiesDevelop regulatory plan for pre IND meetingID cGMP CROFund-raising

cGMP manufacturerRadiopharmaciesNuclear Medicine and Radiology departments

Technical Assistance (Image Atlas)FDA regulatory support

Radiopharmacies

Equipment producers

Prescribing physicians

Radiologist who perform studies

Sales of intermediates

Technology license

Product license (royalty)

Drug developers

Pharmaceutical development companies

IPPoP data

Radiologists

Technical assistance

Direct sales of precursor

R&D and clinical studies presented in journals and meetings

Sales of precursor through global finished pharmaceutical distributor

Critical Success Factors

• Validation of the need– By talking to diabetic patients, clinician and

nurses

• Validation of the customer segmentation– By talking to glucose monitor and kit

manufactures

• Evidence of market accessibility– By talking to glucose monitor and kit

distributors

Backup

Customer Discovery

Bus Model Canvas


Proceed

Customer Discovery - Physical

Bus Model Canvas


Proceed

• TAM/SAM• Product MVP• Customers• Channel • Market Type• Customer Relationships: Get/Keep/Grow• Key Resources• Partners• Pricing

Customer Discovery - Web

Bus Model Canvas


Proceed

• TAM/SAM• Low Fidelity MVP• Customers/Source• Channel • Market Type• Customer Relationships: Acquire/Activate• Traffic Partners• Pricing


Bus Model Canvas


Proceed

• TAM/SAM• Low Fidelity MVP• Customers• Channel • Market Type• Cust Relationships• Traffic Partners• Pricing

• Customer Contacts• Problem Understanding• Customer Understanding• Market Knowledge


Bus Model Canvas


Proceed


• Customer Engagement• Test Low Fidelity MVP• Customer Understanding• Traffic & Competitive Analysis


Bus Model Canvas


Proceed


• Update Bus Model• Create Prototype/Prod Presentation• Test Solution with Customer• Update Business Model• 1st Advisory Board Members


Bus Model Canvas


Proceed



• Update Bus Model• Test High Fidelity MVP• Measure Customer Behavior• Update Business Model• 1st Advisory Board Members

Customer Discovery – Web/Physical

Bus Model Canvas


Proceed

Verify the:• Value Prop• Cust Segment• Cust Relationships• Channel• Revenue Model• Pivot or Proceed



Customer Validation - Web


Proceed

Pivot

Customer Validation - Physical


Proceed

• Craft Positioning• Develop Sales Materials• Hire “Sales Closer”• Sales Channel Action Plan• Refine the Sales Roadmap• Formalize advisory board



Proceed

• Craft Positioning• Acquire/Activate Plans and Tools• Build High Fidelity MVP• Build Metrics Toolset• Hire data analytics chief • Formalize advisory board

Customer Validation - Physical


Proceed

• Craft Positioning

• Acquire/Activate Plans• Build High Fidelity MVP• Build Metrics Toolset• Hire data analytics chief • Formalize advisory board

• Find Earlyvangelists• Test Sell – Out of the Building• Refine Sales Roadmap• Test Sell Channel Partners



Proceed

• Craft Positioning

• Acquire/Activate Plans• Build High Fidelity MVP• Build Metrics Toolset• Hire data analytics chief • Formalize advisory board

• Prepare Optimization Plans & Tools• Out of the building Activation Test• Measure and Optimize Results• Test Sell Traffic Partners

Customer Validation - Physical/Web


Proceed

• Craft Positioning• Acquire/Activate Plans• Build High Fidelity MVP• Build Metrics Toolset• Hire data analytics chief • Formalize advisory board

• Prepare Optimization Plans• Out of the building Activation Test• Measure and Optimize Results• Test Sell Traffic Partners

• Company Positioning• Product Positioning• Validate Positioning

Customer Validation - Physical/Web


Proceed

• Craft Positioning• Acquire/Activate Plans• Build High Fidelity MVP• Build Metrics Toolset• Hire data analytics chief • Formalize advisory board

• Prepare Optimization Plans• Out of the building Activation Test• Measure and Optimize Results• Test Sell Traffic Partners

• Assemble Data• Validate Business Model• Validate Financial Model• Pivot or Proceed

lecture 1: business model & customer development

Education

business organization

startup business size

abouta business mo

customer relationships

key activities images

key partners images

inventbusiness models

value propositions images