learning, innovation, climate change and disasters: an integrated approach

8/11/2019 Learning, Innovation, Climate Change and Disasters: An Integrated Approach

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M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development

LEARNING, INNOVATION,CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

Professor Mohan Munasinghewww.mohanmunasinghe.com

Founder Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), ColomboVice Chair, IPCC-AR4 that shared the 2007 Nobel Prize for Peace

KIVA Professor of Sustainable Development, Darmstadt University, GermanyVisiting Professor, Vale Sustainable Dev. Inst., Fed. Univ. of Para, Belem, Brazil

Distinguished Guest Professor, Peking University, China

ADB ConferenceManila, 10 September 2014


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M I N D Munasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for Development

Climate

System

Feedbacks

Human and

Natural Systems

(V&A Areas)

Human Actions Causing GHG Emissions

Climate Domain

Feedbacks

Different

Socio-economic

Development

Paths(SD Goals &

Policies)

Atmospheric

GHG Emission

and

ConcentrationScenarios

Climate Change Stresses

(temp., sea level, precip. etc.)

Drivers

Global Level Two-Way CC-SD Links 1Sustainable Development

Domain


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Feedbacks

Human Actions Causing

GHG Emissions

Climate DomainSustainable Development

Domain

Feedbacks

Different

Socio-economic

Development

Paths(SD Goals &

Policies)

Atmospheric

GHG Emission

and

ConcentrationScenarios

Climate Change Stresses

(temp., sea level, precip. etc)

A

daptation

AdaptiveCapacity

Mitigative

Capacity

Econ. Soc. Envir.

Feedbacks

Feedbacks

Feedbacks

Global Level Two-Way CC-SD Links 2

Human and

Natural Systems

(V&A Areas)

Climate

System


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IPCC Climate Change Main Findings

Global warming in unequivocal. Total radiative forcing of the climatenow is unprecedented in several thousand years, due to rising

concentrations of GHG (CO2, CH4 & NO2).

Humans activities since the 18th century are 95% likely to have caused net

warming of Earths climate, dominating over the last 50 years. More temp.

and sea level rise is inevitable, even with existing GHG concentrations.

Long term unmitigated climate change would likely exceed the capacityto adapt, of natural managed and human systems.

Adaptation measures are available, but must be systematically developed

Mitigation technologies are also available, but better policies andmeasures (PAM) are needed to realize their potential.

Poor countries and poor groups are most vulnerable to warming,sea level rise, precipitation changes and extreme events. Most socio-

economic sectors, ecological systems and human health will suffer. Making development more sustainable (MDMS) is the mosteffective solution - by integrating climate change policy intosustainable development strategy.


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M I N D Munasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for Development

MOST DESIRABLE:

CC Policies that Harmonise both

Adaptation and Mitigation (Win-Win)

while also Making Development More

Sustainable (MDMS)Examples: renewable energy, growing

forests, energy saving,

Many trade-offs also arise and need to be

reconciled


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M I N D

Numbero

fEarths

Sustainable

BAU

1.Ecol. Footprint of HumanityIn 2012 we needed 1.5 earths;and by 2030 almost 2 Earths

Unsustainable

oneearth 2012 2030

Munasinhe Institute for Development

2. Unfair World Income

Distribution 2000

Champagne GlassRichest fifth of worldpopulation receives83% of world income

One fifth of theWorlds Population

Poorest fifth of worldpopulation receives1.4% of world income

Ratio of60:1

betweenhighest &lowest 20%

3. Mil lennium Development Goals (MDG) & SDGUnited Nations Millennium Declaration, 2000 + Post-2015 Framework

1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 2. Achieve universal primary education

3. Promote gender equality & empowerment 4. Reduce child mortality

5. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria & other diseases 6. Improve maternal health7. Ensure environmental sustainability 8. Global partnership for development

Commendable targets for 1-2 billion poor, but where are theresources to meet them, especially with Climate Change

1.4billion

Also exist ing nuclear weapons can wipe out planet


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M I N D

Climate Justice Equitable Allocation

of Per Capita Carbon Emissions


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ClimateRisk

(e.g.percap

itaGHGemissions)

Development Level (e.g. per capita income)

MDMS via Tunneling & global cooperation to

manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop Step 1

Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.

Poor

Middle Income

Rich Today


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ClimateRisk

(e.g.percap

itaGHGemissi

ons)



manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 2


Poor

Middle Income

Rich

Incentives/resources for developing countries

1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and

most vulnerable.

Transform -

Decarbonise


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ClimateRisk

(e.g.percap

itaGHGemissi

ons)



manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 3


Poor

Middle Income

Rich

Incentives/resources for developing countries

1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and

most vulnerable.

2. Technology cooperation/support to leapfrog

Leapfrog

Transform -

Decarbonise

Getting to Ewill need major

efforts in

learning and

innovation


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M I N D

Food for a Week:Affluent FamilyUnsustainable musttransform/decarbonizetowards sustainablity:MillenniumConsumption Goals

Source: Menzel, 2005

Food for a Week:

Poor FamilyUnsustainable/Unethical must leapfrog/tunnel to

prosperity: MillenniumDevelopment Goals


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M I N D

The consumption of the rich is crowding outthe development prospects of the poor.

As resources (like energy, water and food)become scarce, the market solution is for

prices to rise but this will simply rationthose resources in favour of the rich anddeprive the poor of even their basic needs.

Recent events in many countries show thatdeprivation leads to violence

We can enhance poverty eradication and

protect nature by complementing the MDGswith Millennium Consumption Goals that will

help make the rich consume more sustainably


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Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development:

Social

Capital

Environmental

DebtUnsustainable

cons. & prod.depleting NR

Unethical

Social ValuesGreed, Selfishness,

Corruption, Inequity,

Violence, Injustice,

Elitism

Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit


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Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development:

Social

Capital

Economic

Mal-developmentgrowth based on

unsustainable debt,

waste & inequitableconsumption by

the elites

Environmental

DebtUnsustainable


Unethical



Violence, Injustice,

Elitism



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Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 3

Social

Capital

Economic

Mal-developmentgrowth based on

unsustainable debt,

waste & inequitableconsumption by

the elites

Environmental

DebtUnsustainable


Unethical



Violence, Injustice,Elitism


Environmental

DebtUnsustainable

Pollution &

Depleting Natural

Resources

Drivers of

UnsustainableDevelopment

(with feedback)


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Global resource use versus income (Past)

(175 countries in the year 2000)

Some countries have

a high resource use

per capita butrelatively modest GDP

per capita,

while other countries

have achieved highGDP per capita while

consuming fewer

resources

Res. Use per capita

GDP per capita

Source: UNEP,Res. Eff. For Dev. (2011)


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Global resource use versus income (Past)

(175 countries in the year 2000)

Some countries have

a high resource use

per capita butrelatively modest GDP

per capita,

while other countries

have achieved highGDP per capita while

consuming fewer

resources

Res. Use per capita

GDP per capita

Source: UNEP,Res. Eff. For Dev. (2011)

Future growth trajectory

is key to sustainability

learning, innovation, climate change and disasters: an integrated approach

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