climate change and natural disasters

NATURAL DISASTERSNATURAL DISASTERS

Past, Present, and FuturePast, Present, and Future

NOAA 2007.

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

Past: Natural Disasters throughout HistoryPast: Natural Disasters throughout History

Present: Costs of Natural DisastersPresent: Costs of Natural Disasters

Present and Future: Impact of Greenhouse Gas Present and Future: Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change on Natural Emissions and Climate Change on Natural DisastersDisasters

The Media and Hollywood: Raising Awareness The Media and Hollywood: Raising Awareness about Natural Disasters and Climate Changeabout Natural Disasters and Climate Change

What are Natural Disasters?What are Natural Disasters?

Earthquakes Volcanoes Tornadoes Earthquakes Volcanoes Tornadoes

Hurricanes Floods DroughtsHurricanes Floods Droughts

Winter Storms Wild Fires ThunderstormsWinter Storms Wild Fires Thunderstorms

NOAA 2007.

Natural Disasters throughout Natural Disasters throughout HistoryHistory

Frozen River: ThamesFrozen River: Thames

As early as 260 AD there are records showing that the As early as 260 AD there are records showing that the River Thames in London froze regularly until it was River Thames in London froze regularly until it was embanked in the 19embanked in the 19thth century. century.

Many deaths of people, flora and fauna were attributed to Many deaths of people, flora and fauna were attributed to this condition even though joyous fairs were held upon the this condition even though joyous fairs were held upon the frozen surface. It last froze in 1814.frozen surface. It last froze in 1814.

FIRE !!!!FIRE !!!!

On 8 October 1887, in Peshtigo, Wisconsin, over On 8 October 1887, in Peshtigo, Wisconsin, over 1500 lives were lost, and over 3.8 million acres 1500 lives were lost, and over 3.8 million acres burned in a forest fire.burned in a forest fire.

Winter StormsWinter Storms

The ‘Blizzard of 1888’ hit the East Coast in March, The ‘Blizzard of 1888’ hit the East Coast in March, leaving 40 people dead, accumulations up to 5 feet.leaving 40 people dead, accumulations up to 5 feet.

Damage estimated at $20 million ($2 billion today ?)Damage estimated at $20 million ($2 billion today ?)

FloodsFloods

May 1889 in Johnstown, Pennsylvania: the collapse of May 1889 in Johnstown, Pennsylvania: the collapse of the South Fork Dam left more than 2000 dead.the South Fork Dam left more than 2000 dead.

AvalancheAvalanche

1 March 1910 in Wellington, Washington, 2 trains, 1 March 1910 in Wellington, Washington, 2 trains, snowbound at Stevens Pass in the Cascade snowbound at Stevens Pass in the Cascade Range, were swept off the tracks into a canyon Range, were swept off the tracks into a canyon 150 feet below, killing 56.150 feet below, killing 56.

TornadoTornado

March 18 1925 in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana, March 18 1925 in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana, the great “Tri-State Tornado”. the great “Tri-State Tornado”.

689 dead, over 2000 injured, property damage 689 dead, over 2000 injured, property damage estimated at $16.5 million.estimated at $16.5 million.

DroughtDrought

The drought of the 1930s was the longest drought of the 20The drought of the 1930s was the longest drought of the 20thth century. During 1934, dry regions stretched solidly from NY century. During 1934, dry regions stretched solidly from NY and PA across the Great Plains to California coast. The great and PA across the Great Plains to California coast. The great ““dust bowl” covered 50 million acres on the south central dust bowl” covered 50 million acres on the south central plains during the winder of 1935-36.plains during the winder of 1935-36.

1900 Galveston Hurricane1900 Galveston Hurricane

44thth September 1900: a tidal surge due to a September 1900: a tidal surge due to a

hurricane killed 6000-8000 Galvestonians.hurricane killed 6000-8000 Galvestonians.

Trinity River FloodTrinity River Flood

Envisioned as a shipping canal from the Gulf of Mexico to Envisioned as a shipping canal from the Gulf of Mexico to Dallas.Dallas.

Heavy rains on 17Heavy rains on 17thth May 1949 caused the levees of the May 1949 caused the levees of the West Fork and Clear Fork to fail - leading to the loss of 10 West Fork and Clear Fork to fail - leading to the loss of 10 lives.lives.

Costs of Natural DisastersCosts of Natural Disasters

Facts & Figures – Natural DisastersFacts & Figures – Natural Disasters

The costs are now 15X The costs are now 15X higher than they were in higher than they were in the 1950s.the 1950s.

Number of disasters has Number of disasters has grown: fewer than 100 in grown: fewer than 100 in 1975 to more than 400 in 1975 to more than 400 in 2005.2005.

Approx. 2.6 billion people Approx. 2.6 billion people were affected by natural were affected by natural disasters over the past 10 disasters over the past 10 years, compared to 1.6 years, compared to 1.6 billion the previous billion the previous decade.decade.

Financial Support – World BankFinancial Support – World Bank

528 projects in the past 528 projects in the past

20 years20 years $42,552 million in $42,552 million in

commitmentscommitments $26,281 million in $26,281 million in

activitiesactivities Over 80% of the bank’sOver 80% of the bank’s

disaster financing has disaster financing has addressed floods, addressed floods, earthquakes, and fires.earthquakes, and fires.

Top 10 Surprising Results of Global WarmingTop 10 Surprising Results of Global Warming Aggravated allergiesAggravated allergies; warm temp. and CO2 effect plants to bloom early = more pollen.; warm temp. and CO2 effect plants to bloom early = more pollen.

Heading for the HillsHeading for the Hills; mammalia species to higher elevation due to change in habitat.; mammalia species to higher elevation due to change in habitat.

Arctic in BloomArctic in Bloom; booming of Artic biota no longer trapped in ice.; booming of Artic biota no longer trapped in ice.

Pulling the PlugPulling the Plug; 125+ lakes in the Artic have disappeared.; 125+ lakes in the Artic have disappeared.

The Big ThawThe Big Thaw; layers of permanently frozen soil thawing out.; layers of permanently frozen soil thawing out.

Survival of the fittestSurvival of the fittest; plants bloom earlier in the year, animals that wait until their usual ; plants bloom earlier in the year, animals that wait until their usual time to migrate might miss out on all the food. time to migrate might miss out on all the food.

Speedier SatellitesSpeedier Satellites; due to CO2 sparsed molecules in upper atmosphere will collide less ; due to CO2 sparsed molecules in upper atmosphere will collide less frequently and tend to radiate energy away cooling the atmosphere allowing air to settle = frequently and tend to radiate energy away cooling the atmosphere allowing air to settle = less dense air = less drag on satellite orbit.less dense air = less drag on satellite orbit.

Rebounding MtnsRebounding Mtns; Glaciers melting, the weight of mountains are lifting and surface slowly ; Glaciers melting, the weight of mountains are lifting and surface slowly springing back. (i.e. Alps)springing back. (i.e. Alps)

Ruined ruinsRuined ruins; natural disasters damaging irreplaceable sites.; natural disasters damaging irreplaceable sites.

Forest fire frenzy!Forest fire frenzy! Western Western U.S. office. U.S. office.Lifescience.com

Impact of Greenhouse Gas Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Emissions and Climate

Change on Natural DisastersChange on Natural Disasters

Francis and Hengeveld (1998)

Theory: Greenhouse Gas Theory: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate ChangeEmissions and Climate Change

Alter the intensity and frequency of natural disasters Alter the intensity and frequency of natural disasters

that are regulated by atmospheric and oceanic conditionsthat are regulated by atmospheric and oceanic conditions

Yes: hurricanes and cyclones, droughts, floods, Yes: hurricanes and cyclones, droughts, floods, thunderstorms, wild fires, winter stormsthunderstorms, wild fires, winter storms

No: volcanoes, earthquakesNo: volcanoes, earthquakes

Maybe: tornadoes (no decisive verdict yet)Maybe: tornadoes (no decisive verdict yet)

Ok, but how?Ok, but how?

Different Mechanisms for Altering Different Mechanisms for Altering Natural Climatic ProcessesNatural Climatic Processes

Altering distribution of heat and energy; thereby, Altering distribution of heat and energy; thereby, altering circulation patterns of the atmosphere and altering circulation patterns of the atmosphere and oceans (ex: thermohaline circulation)oceans (ex: thermohaline circulation)

Altering hydrological cycle: increased convection Altering hydrological cycle: increased convection over warmer land and sea surfaces; warmer air over warmer land and sea surfaces; warmer air holds more moisture that will fall down as holds more moisture that will fall down as precipitationprecipitation

Example: Hurricanes and Tropical Storms need Example: Hurricanes and Tropical Storms need Sea Surface Temperatures of 27Sea Surface Temperatures of 27°°C or moreC or more

Changes in Sea and Land Surface Changes in Sea and Land Surface TemperatureTemperature

NOAA 2007.

Changes in PrecipitationChanges in Precipitation

NOAA 2007.

Changes in PrecipitationChanges in Precipitation


Possibly Aggregating the Problem: Possibly Aggregating the Problem: Milankovitch CyclesMilankovitch Cycles

Brown and Lomolino (1998)

Definitely Aggregating the Problem: Definitely Aggregating the Problem: UrbanizationUrbanization

Daniel Sarewitz and Roger Pielke, Jr.: Daniel Sarewitz and Roger Pielke, Jr.:

reduction in greenhouse gas emission is reduction in greenhouse gas emission is

important but will not reduce vulnerability to important but will not reduce vulnerability to

natural disasters. Why?natural disasters. Why?

Urbanization: More people living closer to Urbanization: More people living closer to

coast and flood prone areascoast and flood prone areas

NOAA 2007.

Results: Results: Increased Frequency and Increased Frequency and

Intensity of Climate AnomaliesIntensity of Climate Anomalies

NOAA 2007.

The Media and Hollywood: The Media and Hollywood: Raising Awareness about Natural Raising Awareness about Natural

Disasters and Climate ChangeDisasters and Climate Change

Climate Change and Natural Climate Change and Natural Disasters in MoviesDisasters in Movies

Grapes of Wrath Grapes of Wrath Twister TwisterThe Perfect Storm Absolute ZeroThe Perfect Storm Absolute ZeroDay After Tomorrow VolcanoDay After Tomorrow Volcano

Relevance of Mass Media to Relevance of Mass Media to Disaster ManagementDisaster Management

Started by Laurie David, wife of Started by Laurie David, wife of Larry David (co-creator of Seinfeld Larry David (co-creator of Seinfeld and creator of Curb Your and creator of Curb Your Enthusiasm)Enthusiasm)

A virtual march that is a non-political A virtual march that is a non-political effort bringing Americans together to effort bringing Americans together to declare that global warming is here declare that global warming is here now and it’s time to act.now and it’s time to act.

Videos include Leonardo DiCaprio, Videos include Leonardo DiCaprio, Martin Short, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.Martin Short, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

““Join the Join the 670,948670,948 supporters of the Stop Global Warming Virtual March, and supporters of the Stop Global Warming Virtual March, and become part of the movement to demand solutions to global warming now.” become part of the movement to demand solutions to global warming now.”

HBO DocumentaryHBO Documentary

“Heat waves. Melting glaciers. Rising sea levels. Catastrophic storms. Migrating viruses. Population displacement. Over the

past 100 years, the mass consumption of fossil fuels, especially in America, has contributed to a dangerous

warming of the earth that has adversely impacted the way we live. The cautionary documentary offers a guide to the effects

of global warming in the United States. “www.hbo.com/docs/programs/toohot

http://www.hbo.com/docs/programs/toohot

Sports IllustratedSports Illustrated

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/more/03/06/eco0312/http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/more/03/06/eco0312/

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/more/03/06/eco0312/

Any thoughts or questions?Any thoughts or questions?

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