latin america in the american age
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Latin America in the American Age. The Dawn of the American Age Geography, Demography and Shale energy In the American Orbit Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela Brazil’s Day Ends The Rise of Mexico… …and The North American Drug War. Peter Zeihan - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Latin America in the American Age• The Dawn of the American Age
– Geography, Demography and Shale energy• In the American Orbit
– Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela • Brazil’s Day Ends• The Rise of Mexico… …
and The North American Drug War
Peter ZeihanAssociation of American Manufacturers
November 4
Point of Comparison:The American Geography Integrated network
over gigantic piece of useable landÞ Unified, capital-rich polity
Two oceansÞ Massive insulationÞ Direct access to both trading basins
Largest marketÞ Largest ag producer/exporterÞ Largest military
Evolving Demography
Shale:Acceptance
• Groundwater contamination (porous v non)
• The “toxicity” issue is about to vanish
• Even without “approval” is already remaking the system
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
Average Electricity Prices
US total NY TX CA
Brazil’s Problem…and the Fallout
• Extremely-capital intensive, extremely-capital poor
• Paraguay and Uruguay have nowhere to turn
• Argentina needs a pants-kick
The SouthAmerican Geography• Sharp regional
breaks• Infrastructure and
economies of scale problematic
Þ Needs cheap credit and strong commodity markets (but not as cheap/strong as Brazil!)
3500m5500m
In America’s Orbit:Colombia and
Venezuela• Colombia:
– Still a pocket country, but one w/ transport options (and a market!)
• Venezuela:– One ideological
mistake is wrecking the oil sector
The First (Mexican) Problem:A Very Hostile Geography
No rivers, few portsÞ Low capital generationMountainous, disassociated territoriesÞ No infrastructure EcoSÞ Will never be a strong state
The Second (Mexican-American) “Problem”:An Economic Miracle Not to Be Missed1) China is losing the
ability to subsidize its competitiveness
2) Remember U.S. shale
3) Young demographics generate growth (and cheap labor)
4) Drug war makes Mexican labor more attractive
The Third (Mexican-American) Problem: Not a Normal Border
2013• 0.7t cu feet of
natgas • $500b of bilateral
trade• 350m legal border
crossings
2020• 3t cu feet of natgas • $650b of bilateral
trade• 500m legal border
crossings
The Fourth (American) Problem: America’s only Ghettoized Community
The North American Drug War
• From Miami Vice to cartels
• Supply chains
National Stability:
2020-2040