©OECD/IEA2016©OECD/IEA2016

LaszloVarroChiefEconomist

©OECD/IEA2016

Energypost-Paris

Wemadeittothebasecamp...

...butthere’satoughclimbstillahead

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Energyefficiencyandlowfossilfuelprices

ThethreebestsellingvehiclesinNorthAmerica

Appliancestandardslockinefficiencyimprovementsdespitedecliningelectricityprices

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Theglobalcarfleetdoubles,butefficiencygains,biofuels&electriccarsreduceoil

Changeinoildemandbysector,2015-2040

Nopeakyetinsight,butaslowdowningrowthforoildemand

Powergeneration

Buildings Passengercars

Maritime Freight Aviation Petrochemicals

demandforpassengercars; growthelsewherepushestotaldemandhigher

©OECD/IEA2016

Electricityisleadingthetransformation

Electriccarsgenerateconsumerexcitement,butdisplacedonly0.01%ofoilproductionlastyear

Currentwindandsolarinvestmentisequivalenttoover1%ofglobalgasproductionnotburnedinCCGTs

©OECD/IEA2016

Thegrowthofrenewablesisnotnecessarilydecentralised

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Thelargemajorityofrenewableproductionreliesontheinterconnectedgrid

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Energystoragesolutionsinahighcarbonsystem

©OECD/IEA2016

Theabilitytointegraterenewablesisimprovingbutthereareunansweredquestionsatveryhighshares

Transmissioninterconnection

DemandsideResponse Is the low hanging fruit scalable?

Is the Supergrid politically feasible?

EnergystorageCan smart pricing overcome consumer convenience?

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Flexiblegasturbinesremainessentialtokeepthelightson

EUgasfiredcapacityandgeneration-today

EUgasfiredcapacityandgeneration– 450ppm

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Infrastructureinvestmentcostfora1GWpowerplantinAsiaCoalandgas-firedpowerinvestmentinAsianmarkets(2015)

InfrastructurecostsfavourcoalpowerovergasinAsianenergyimporters

Asianmarketscomprised85%ofglobal coalpowerinvestment,whileN.AmericaandMiddleEast,withrobustinfrastructure,favouredgasfornewfossilfuelpower

©OECD/IEA2016 ©IEA2016

YoungandoldcoalYoungandoldcoalcapacity,2015

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Athirdofglobalcoalcapacityislessthan10yearsoldrepresenting90billiontonsofpotentialCO2emissionsduringtheirlifetime

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©OECD/IEA2016

CCSgoodnewsdependonoilmarketdevelopments

ForeverysingleCCSprojectthathassucceededinreallifehydrocarbonrevenuesplayedanimportantrole

BoundaryDamPetraNovaKemper

GorgonQuest

EORoilpaysforcleancoal

LargeoilandgasprojectswithanintegratedCCScomponent

©OECD/IEA2016

Nuclear:alargelowcarbonsourcewithuncertainprospects

üChina:anewreactoreveryquarter

üRussia:strongnuclearprogramwithglobalambitions

üKorea:pronuclearpolicy,strongindustrialcapability

û Persistentprojectmanagementissues

û Exposuretowholesalemarketdesign

LosingtheEUandUSnuclearfleetwouldabsorb20yearsofwindandsolardeploymentatthecurrentinvestmentrate