Land-use futures in the Eden catchment: Carlisle socio-economic

futures

Sylvia Tunstall and Hazel FaulknerFlood Hazard Research Centre

Middlesex University

FRMRC2 – Eden Flood Modelling Workshop, Carlisle 9 & 10 May 2011

Carlisle socio-economic future(s) over which timescales?

Sylvia Tunstall

Upstream agricultural

future(s) to be modelled?Joe Morris

Channel routing model parameter

requirementsTom

Coulthard/Stuart Lane

Carlisle inundation model requirements

Jeff Neal/Paul Bates/Keith Beven

Climatic futures scenarios Jim Hall

Headwater hydrological model

parameter requirementsStuart Lane

Key tipping points? Mechanisms for model integration?

parameterisation of Carlisle urban modelling?

Agreement on com

bined soc-ec futures?

INTEGRATING ACTIVITIES CHALLENGES

boundary conditions to be input to Carlisle m

odel?

Changes to size of 200-year ppn event …after 25 years ?…after 50 years?

Changes to size of 10 year ppn event…after 25 years ?…after 50 years?

Input to

hydr. model

Objectives of this project on urban Carlisle socio-economic futures

To show:• Different Foresight type scenarios;’

• Over time periods: 20/5, 50 years

• Output: part of a 5,000 + word report

Research Methods

• 11 semi-structured interviews with key local and regional informants, 10 face to face, one telephone interview, completed between 22 June and 10 August 2009

• A review of 17 main relevant local and regional documents

• Report March 2010

Overview of the Eden catchment.Carlisle in NW of catchment.

Eden, Caldew and Petteril rivers all flow through the District

Source: River Eden, Cumbria CFMP

Carlisle City Council Area

•Close to Scottish Border and Gretna Green to north

•A small city, population 105,200 in 2008

• about 30% of Carlisle District‘s population is rural, many in sparsely populated areas

•Solway and Pennines AONB

•Northumberland and Lake District NP,

• Eden Valley, Rivers Eden, Caldew and Petteril rivers

Urban Carlisle

The focus of the study

About 70% of Carlisle District ‘s population is in this urban area

City of Carlisle today(Growing Carlisle: An Economic Strategy for the Carlisle City

Region, Carlisle Renaissance , January 2008)

• Freestanding small city : nearest major conurbations Newcastle 60 miles to the East, Glasgow to the North

• County town of Cumbria, administrative centre • Historic cathedral city, Hadrian’s Wall nearby, 2000 years of history• University city with creation of University of Cumbria in 2007• Diverse and stable local economy: food production, retail, transport and

services, tourism• High employment levels but low wages and GVA c.f. NW and England• Low levels of educational attainment c.f. NW and England• 6 wards in urban Carlisle within 20% most deprived in England according

to the Index of Multiple Deprivation

Conceptualising and modelling socio-economic change

Socio-economic modelling techniques used in Carlisle

• ONS demographic modelling• POPGROUP, a population forecasting tool supplied by Manchester

University for forecasts to 2031 for Carlisle population/housing scenarios • Experian economic forecasting model linked to POPGROUP used for

Carlisle economic scenarios to 2016 (for both see: Cumbria Housing Strategy 2006-2011, Carlisle City Council 2009)

• Cambridge Econometrics’ Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) for projections of Carlisle economy to 2020(see Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy SWOT analysis, SQW Ltd. 2006)

Issues• Based on past trends and depend on accurate baseline data • Do not reflect downturn in UK/world economy 2008 -2010 onwards• Linking models added uncertainty

Growing Carlisle: a policy consensus and aspiration

2005 floods: a catalyst for making Carlisle a better place by growing Carlisle’s population and economyEndorsed by documents and analyses:• Carlisle Renaissance: Economic Strategy SWOT Analysis (SQW Ltd

December 2006• Carlisle Renaissance/Carlisle Partnership (2008) Growing Carlisle: An

economic Strategy for Carlisle City Region • Cumbria Economic Strategy 2009-2019 (Cumbria Vision/Cumbria Strategic

Partnership 2009)• Cumbria Housing Strategy 2006/2011 Carlisle Housing Market Area

(Carlisle City Council 2009• North West of England Plan: Regional Spatial Strategy to 2021

(government Office for the North West, 2008)• Carlisle Growth Point: Programme of Development (Carlisle City Council

2008)• Cumbria Housing Strategy 2006-2011, (Carlisle City Council 2009)

Growing Carlisle: Opportunities (Cumbria Economic Strategy 2009-19, 2009)

• Population growth: Growth point status confirmed by Government

• Prioritisation for growth within the Regional Economic Strategy – public and private sector investment

• Establishment of the University of Cumbria HQ in Carlisle• Development of Carlisle Airport• Development of key economic sectors e.g. tourism, retail,

food, logistics, financial and business, education and health• Scope for allocation of additional land for housing and

employment: land is available

Scenarios for population growth in Carlisle District relative to national projected trends

Source: Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy 2008

Population scenarios

Population Approx 25 years

by 2029

Approx. 50 years

by 2054

Growth Population number

Annual rate of increase **

Population

number ***

Current

projection

112,000 * 270 119,000

50% above

national rate

120,000 * 610 135,000

Twice national rate

127,000 * 890 149,000

* Source: Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy 2008

** Assumes a base population of 104,000 approx

*** Assumes that the same annual rate continues to 2054

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2006 2016 2031 2051

A

B

Housing scenarios: Population lead. Source: Cumbria Housing Strategy 2006/2011 (Carlisle City Council 2009)

A No net migration scenario - 8,000 extra dwellings by 2051

B Migration at same rate as previous 5 years scenario – 22,000 extra dwellings by 2051 – EU accession migrants, retirees

Source: POP-GROUP population forecasting software Cumbria CC 2008

No of dwellings

Housing scenarios: Dwelling led. Source: Cumbria Housing Strategy 2006/2011 (Carlisle City Council 2009)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2006 2016 2031 2051

C

D

E

No. of dwellings

C Dwellings built at rate of past 5 years (320 p.a) – 14,000 extra by 2051

D Dwellings built at RSS target rate (450 p.a) - 20,000 extra by 2051

E Dwellings built at the Growth Point bid rate (600 p.a) – 24,000 extra by 2051

Source: POP-GROUP population forecasting software Cumbria CC 2008

Employment Growth scenarios (Carlisle City Council 2009)

• Experian forecasting model used to generate 3 employment scenarios for Carlisle to 2016 only.

• Also linked to POP-GROUP to model dwellings under 3 scenarios

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

52,000

53,000

54,000

2006 2016

A

B

C

No of FTEs

A Worst case scenario: Carlisle economy particularly badly affected by national and global recession and does not recover fast – 1,000 decline in FTEs to 2016

B Baseline scenario: projects Carlisle’s future on basis of past trends and assumes no policy impacts – modest growth, 900, in FTEs to 2016

C Aspirational scenario: Carlisle’s future as per Carlisle Renaissance and Capital Growth plans – significant growth, 3,800, in FTEs to 2016

Carlisle sector employment projections to 2020

Expanders: sectors where both GVA (Gross Value Added) and employment projected to expand 2006-2020

Source: Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy SWOT Analysis 2006. LEFM projections (pre 2008-2010+ recession) Note bubble size reflects 2006 GVA

Carlisle sector employment projections to 2020Adjusters: sectors which will adjust to remain competitive - GVA will increase but employment will fall 2006-2020

Source: Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy SWOT Analysis 2006. LEFM projections (pre 2008-2010+ recession) Note bubble size reflects 2006 GVA

Carlisle sector employment projections to 2020Shrinkers: sectors where both GVA and employment are projected to decline 2006-2020

Implications of socio-economic futures for flood risk

These will depend on:

• How much and what future residential and employment development (scenarios considered above)

• Planning policies, availability and allocation of development land also on private sector decisions

• Where: geographic location of development in relation to flood risk

Development and flood risk

• Most of the urban area at risk/flooded in 2005 will have flood

defences to the 1 in 200 standard.

• Carlisle District Local Development Plan (2008) robust policies for floodplains (developed or undeveloped) and coastal land reflecting PPS 25 (LE 27 and LE 28)

• Extreme flood events

Planning policies and land allocations

Three possible options for future land allocations.

• Brownfield sites mainly City Centre. RSS required 50% of housing development on this land.

Rickergate and Caldew Riverside flood plain sites identifies for redevelopment.

• Areas on the fringe of built up City. No greenbelt in Carlisle. Mostly not in 1 in 100 floodplain.e.g. planned development of 800 houses and other facilities at Morton, not floodplain

• Developments in /outside City urban area adjacent to M6 Junctions J42, J43 and J44 (near Kingmoor Business Park.) Some land near J42 and J43 (Rosehill) at flood risk

EA - development of Carlisle possible without using flood risk land

Morton development area: South West of urban CarlisleCarlisle District Local Plan 2001-2016 Proposals Map 2004

Eastern edge of urban Carlisle

Rosehill interchange

Junction 43

Northern edge of urban Carlisle

Junction 44 M6

Kingmoor Business Park

Northern Development Route

City centre

Rickergate redevelopment site

Civic Centre

Former police and Fire station

City centre

Caldew riverside site

Carlisle urban futures scenarios

Three scenarios:

• Low growth scenario

• Moderate growth /business as usual scenario

• High aspirational growth scenario

Summary Low Growth Scenario: No increase and possible decline in property /people at risk in 1 in 100 FRA URBAN AREA

• Population: static or decline - No net migration, 71,000 in 2006 in urban area• Economy/employment: Low growth, stagnant or shrinking • Housing Extra dwellings: in 203 , in 2051: most outside FRAs• Health, public administration: No building on Rickergate site• Education: No Cumbria University HQ etc on Caldew Riverside • Leisure: Sands Centre 25% increase in size, No new theatre.• Tourism: No 4 star hotel and conference facilities on Rickergate site• Food manufacturing: increased investment , decline in employment. Of major

firms, only McVities at risk, might relocate.• Other manufacturing: decline, possible loss of major firm e.g. Pirelli through

restructuring/relocation but major firms are not in the 1 in 100 FRA• Transport, distribution: limited airport expansion and distribution, not in FRA• CNDR developed by 2031 but EA approved . No Southern Relief Road.• No expansion of business and professional, digital and creative industries.

Summary: moderate growth/business as usual scenario: modest increase in property /people at risk in 1 in 100 FRA: URBAN AREA

• Population: modest net migration and growth in population to 75,000 in 2051• Housing (current rate): Extra dwellings: 5,000 by 2031 , 10,000 in 2051: 5% FRAs?• Employment (baseline): modest increase in FTEs, I,700 by 3031; 2,700 by 2051• Retail: limited development of part of Rickergate site for retail• Health, public administration: small redevelopment on Rickergate site• Education: Cumbria University HQ on part of Caldew Riverside site• Leisure: Sands Centre 50% increase in size, No new theatre.• Tourism: No 4 star hotel and conference facilities on Rickergate site• Food manufacturing: increased investment , stable employment. No loss of major

firms.• Other manufacturing: No or low growth, no loss of major firm e.g. Pirelli ; major firms

are not in the 1 in 100 FRA• Transport,/distribution: Further airport expansion and distribution• CNDR developed by 2031 but EA approved . No Southern Relief Road.• Small expansion of business and professional, digital and creative industries.

Summary: aspirational/growth point bid scenario: some increase in property /people at risk in 1 in 100 FRA: URBAN AREA

• Population: substantial net migration, growth in population to 81,000 in 2031, to 92,000 in 2051

• Housing (Growth Bid rate): Extra dwellings: 10,000 by 2031, 18,000 in 2051: 5% FRAs?

• Employment (baseline): modest increase in FTEs, I,700 by 3031; 2,700 by 2051• Retail: substantial development of part of Rickergate site for retail• Health, public administration: Full redevelopment of Rickergate site• Education: Cumbria University on all of Caldew Riverside site and adjacent sites• Leisure: Sands Centre 100% increase in size, new theatre.• Tourism: A 4 star hotel and conference facilities on Rickergate site• Food manufacturing: increased investment , stable employment.• Other manufacturing: some growth, no loss of major firm e.g. • Transport,/distribution: Significant airport expansion and distribution• CNDR developed by 2031. Southern Relief Road by 2051.• Large expansion of business and professional, digital and creative industries.

Next steps

Modelling under the three socio-economic futures scenarios looking at the impact of particular developments on the models.So far: Two Futures :"Future 1" is based on developing the Caldew Riverside site where it was planned to locate the University of Cumbria HQ and buildings

"Future 2" which is not likely at all includes a housing estate next to the motorway in addition to the Caldew development.

Depth and velocity have been modelled for these “Futures”. 

Thank you

Sources drivers: climate change/ emissions (medium effect)

PrecipitationRelative sea level riseSurges

Pathways drivers (relatively small effect)

Rural land managementUrbanisationNational wealth change

Receptors (larger effect)Social impactsInfrastructure impactsBuildings and contents

Environmental regulation inc. FRM

Key drivers of future flood risk (Foresight: Future Flooding, Executive Summary)

Factors external to the local economy

• Global and national shock e.g. banking crisis and recession 2008-9• Regional and local shocks e.g.

Foot and Mouth Disease in Cumbria 2001Flooding in Cumbria and Carlisle 2005

• National and local policy decisions e.g. Govt. decision to grant Carlisle ‘Growth Point’ status. Cumbria and Carlisle Districts commitment to growth

• Private sector decisions: Regional and local government can plan but many plans can only be realised in partnership with private sector or by private sector alone

Conceptualising socio-economic change

Key factors are interrelated but relationships are complex and interactive

• Right employment opportunities needed to attract migrantsbut

• Critical mass of population needed to support services and businesses that will attract more people and investment

• Right type of housing needed to attract migrants and employees• Not all population growth will require employment opportunities e.g.

retirees, self-employed• Employment/housing may be located outside the area e.g. urban Carlisle

depending on propensity to travel to work