Land and Peace in the Middle East

Examining Size, Significance and Solutions

Dr. Martin Sherman

Manila, August 2004

Israel & the Moslem WorldIsrael & the Moslem World

                                                                                  

                                                                                  

                                                                                  

Israel & the Arab WorldIsrael & the Arab World

Israel

300,000 sq km

20,770 sq km

Philippines

Israel

Philippines

Israel

Israel

Israel

Israel

Israel

Israel

Israel

Israel

Israel

Israel

Israel Israel

Israel

a. 3 miles wide hereb. Golan Heightsc. Sea of Galileed. Jordan River... Sea of Galilee     to Dead Seae. 1967 "Green Line"... the 1949     armistice lines separating     Israel from its heartland of     Judea-Samaria when Jordanian     forces illegally annexed it. After the     1967 Arab-Israeli war, Israel      regained that land... at which time      the world began referring to Judea and      Samaria as the "West Bank" in order to      try to erase any Jewish connection      to this historically Jewish land!f.  9 miles wide hereg. Tel Avivh. Jerusalemi.  Dead Seaj.  Gaza Strip: 5 miles x 25 miles The surrounding 22 Arab countries are 640 times larger than tiny Israel yet they expect Israel to turn over all the West Bank, Gaza Strip, the Golan Heights and half of Jerusalem... territory they lost after they started the 1967 war! 

1976 Green LineJordan Valley

Ben Gurion Airport

Rishon Le’Zion

Water Line

Satellite Photo Showing

Israel

● Major Sea Ports and Naval Bases

● Principal Power Stations

● Sweet Water System

● Crucial Communications and Transport Systems

● Major Air Fields - Civilian and Military

● Vital Centers of Military Command & Control, and Centers of Civilian Government

● 80% of the Population and 80% of the Economic Activity

Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Resolutions 242 and 338” in Resolutions 242 and 338” in Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and HistoryHistory, New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993 , New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993

I do not know if the Joint Chiefs of Staff would draw a different map today, but I doubt is very much.

* See Appendix D. Editor

The study advised …that the security of Israel required Israel to receive parts of the territory of the West Bank as essential to its defense. In fact, all the studies of the Israeli security problem reached the same conclusion – from the security point of view, Israel must hold the high points in the West Bank and areas along the Jordan River.

What these two senators [Byrd and Dole] assume is that somehow or other, some Arab state has a right to claim that anything beyond the Green Line is Arab territory under 242 and 338. This is exactly contrary to its provisions and its purpose…. [T]here is an important document which has now been released. It is useful in interpreting Resolution 242 because it reveals part of what the U.S. government had in mind in pushing the resolution through. It is a map of the area, showing the places of particular security concern to Israel. The map was prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who made a study of Israeli security …to advise the President on what the security concerns of Israel were.*

The Mountain Aquifer Recharge, Storage, and Pumping Areas

Recharge Area

Storage Area

Pumping Area

Aquifer

Aquiclude

Mediterranean

Jordan Valley

Subterranean Flow

Recharge Areas of the Mountain AquiferRecharge Areas of the Mountain Aquifer

The Mountain Aquifer –Water Movement and Sources of Salination

Direction of Salt Propagation

Pumping Sites

Coastal Plain

Judea & Samaria Highlands

Green Line

Jordan R.

Mediterranean Sea

Mountain Aquifer

Direction of Subterranean Flow of Ground Water in the

Aquifer

Surface Discharge of Aquifer

Direction of Progression of

Salting

Direction of Flow of Pollutants

אזור המילוי החוזר

גשם על מחשופי האקוויפר מעבר לקו

הירוק

It is the rain falling on the West Bank that recharges the aquifer; any new wells drilled between the recharge area and the Israeli taps could cut off supply and, by lowering the water tables in the part of the aquifer that extends to the west of the Green Line, allow saline water from greater depths to seep in, permanently ruining what is left” US News & World Report, 16.12.91.

Wells within Israel proper were tapping this water long before the Six-Day War. But as the population and water demand on both sides of the Green Line have grown, the control of the western slopes has attained a new and vital importance for Israel.

Location of wells and springs in districts of the West Bank

Head of Military Intelligence: The Arabs Demand 60 Percent of

Israel’s Water

(b )Width – No “Strategic Depth”

(a )Length – Extent of Frontiers

(c )Height – Topographical Inferiority

(d )Depth – Hydrological Dependency

Territorial ConcessionsTerritorial Concessions= =

Multi Dimensional ThreatMulti Dimensional Threat !! !!

Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 232.

In time of war, the frontiers of the Palestinian state will constitute an excellent staging point for mobile forces to mount attacks on infrastructure installations vital for Israel’s existence, to impede the freedom of action of the Israeli air-force in the skies over Israel, and to cause bloodshed among the population... in areas adjacent to the frontier-line.

Israel will have problems in preserving day-to-day security, which may drive the country into war, or undermine the morale of its citizens.

It will not be short of weapons or other [military] equipment, and in a short space of time, an infrastructure for waging war will be set up in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.

The establishment of such [a Palestinian] state means the inflow of combat ready Palestinian forces (more than 25,000 men under arms) into Judea and Samaria; this force, together with the local youth, will double itself in a short time.

And if the Palestinian state would be unarmed, how would it block terrorist acts perpetrated by extremists, fundamentalists or irredentists?

Shimon Peres The New Middle East, New York: H. Holt, 1993, p. 169.

Even if the Palestinians agree that their state have no army or weapons, who can guarantee that a Palestinian army would not be mustered later to encamp at the gates of Jerusalem and the approaches to the lowlands?

In the 20th century, with the development of the rapid In the 20th century, with the development of the rapid mobility of armies, the defensive importance of territorial mobility of armies, the defensive importance of territorial expanse has increased…Without a border which affords expanse has increased…Without a border which affords security, a country is doomed to destruction in war.security, a country is doomed to destruction in war.

Shimon Peres, Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Tomorrow is NowNow, pp. 235,254,255, pp. 235,254,255

It is of course doubtful whether territorial expanse can provide absolute deterrence. However, the lack of minimal territorial expanse places a country in a position of an absolute lack of deterrence. This in itself constitutes almost compulsive temptation to attack Israel from all directions …

In 1948, it may have been possible to defend the “thin In 1948, it may have been possible to defend the “thin waist” of Israel’s most densely populated area, when the waist” of Israel’s most densely populated area, when the most formidable weapon used by both sides was the most formidable weapon used by both sides was the canon of limited mobility and limited fire-power…canon of limited mobility and limited fire-power…

One does not have to a military expert to easily One does not have to a military expert to easily identify the critical defects of the armistice lines identify the critical defects of the armistice lines that existed until June 4, 1967. [For Israel] a that existed until June 4, 1967. [For Israel] a military defeat ... would mean the physical military defeat ... would mean the physical extinction of a large part of its population and the extinction of a large part of its population and the political elimination of the Jewish state. ...To political elimination of the Jewish state. ...To lose a single war is to lose everything...’lose a single war is to lose everything...’Yigal Allon, ‘Israel: The Case for Defensible Borders’, Yigal Allon, ‘Israel: The Case for Defensible Borders’,

Foreign AffairsForeign Affairs October, 1976, pp. 38-54. October, 1976, pp. 38-54.

... the innovation and sophistication in ... the innovation and sophistication in weaponry ... [including ]the appearance of ground weaponry ... [including ]the appearance of ground to ground missiles and supersonic fighter-to ground missiles and supersonic fighter-bombers]... not only fail to diminish the value of bombers]... not only fail to diminish the value of strategic depth and natural barriers, but in fact strategic depth and natural barriers, but in fact enhance their importance. This is even more true enhance their importance. This is even more true for Israel’s difficult geographic position ... for Israel’s difficult geographic position ...

If a Palestinian state is established, it will be armed to the teeth. Within it there will be bases of the most extreme terrorist forces, who will be equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft shoulder-launched rockets, which will endanger not only random passers-by, but also every airplane and helicopter taking off in the skies of Israel and every vehicle traveling along the major traffic routes in the coastal plain.

Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 255.

This is the fundamental difference between them and us, this is the terrible danger involved in the establishment of a third independent sovereign state between us and the Jordan River… A third state is liable to be an arrow-head directed at the very heart of Israel with all the force of the Arab world behind it.

Amnon Rubinstein, ‘The Pitfall of a Third State ’Ha’artez, 6.8.1976

However, the answer to this is very simple. The Arab world can exist, prosper, and develop not only if our artillery threatens Kalkilya, but even if it hits it. Israel, small and exposed, will neither be able to exist nor to prosper if its urban centers, its vulnerable airport and its narrow winding roads, are shelled.

[The proponents of Palestinian State] claim if they [the Arabs] threaten us with artillery from Kalkilya , we will threaten Kalkilya with our artillery.

Anyone who controls the water sources of the Anyone who controls the water sources of the West Bank can, quite simply dry out the West Bank can, quite simply dry out the coastal plain in Israel. Control of the two coastal plain in Israel. Control of the two major aquifers, drilling of deep bore-holes and major aquifers, drilling of deep bore-holes and subsequent intensive pumping in Western subsequent intensive pumping in Western Samaria and in the Jenin and Tubas area are Samaria and in the Jenin and Tubas area are liable to leave the Jewish farmers of the liable to leave the Jewish farmers of the Sharon without irrigation water, and the fields Sharon without irrigation water, and the fields of the Jezriel Valley devastatedof the Jezriel Valley devastated..

Reuven Pedazur, Defence Analyst Reuven Pedazur, Defence Analyst Ha’aretzHa’aretz, 25.4.89, 25.4.89

Maariv

Maariv

12.6.1992 Ariel Sharon

Imperative Not To Flee From Terror

And Gaza is the prime example. The populated sections of Gaza had in 1970 become an area controlled by the terrorist organizations because the Defense Minister decided to evacuate the towns, villages and refugee camps. Fortunately we returned to the correct policy before the Gaza Strip exploded like festering abscess, which could have poisoned the entire surroundings. But because of mistaken policy – of fleeing from the population centers and refraining from eliminating the danger in its early formative stages – we had to conduct a much more difficult and lengthy campaign.

These experiences prove not only that terror can be eradicated, but also the principle by which this is to be accomplished. It is imperative not to run from terrorism, and it will be smitten only if we control its bases and it engage its gangs on their own territory.

If now we once more fall into the same mistake, the price will be much heavier than before – because now the terrorists and the means they have at their disposal are different and more dangerous than before. If we abandon Gaza, it will be taken over by the terror organizations. Palestine Square [in Gaza] will become a launching site for rockets aimed at … Ashkelon and what will the IDF do then? Will it once again recapture Gaza? Shell and bomb the towns and refugee camps in the Gaza Strip? We all aspire to a political settlement, but we not will reach it by way of surrender but only after crushing terrorism and we can only eliminate terrorism if we control its bases, and fight its gangs there and destroy them.

If the Syrians resettle and industrialize the Golan plateau after Israel’s evacuation, the area might become a source of pollution endangering the water quality of the Sea of Galilee.

... a change in the sovereignty over this area and its return to Syrians ...[who] have not placed the peace issue in a prominent position on their national agenda ...would raise problems of the need to ensure the existing user rights which depend on the Israeli Sea of Galilee inflow ...

E. Kally with G. Fishelson , Water and Peace: Water Resources and the Arab-Israeli Peace Process, )Westport, Conn., 1993(, p. 51.

D. Hillel, Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for Water and the Quest for Peace in the Middle East, )New York, 1994(, p. 289.

The water sources on the Golan [are] a critical, vital and even a fateful matter in terms of the future of the State [of Israel]. I have to say that I am not aware of any replacement for this water.

Ya’acov Tsur, Minster of Agriculture under both Rabin and Peres, Jerusalem Post, 27. 12. 1995.

If the Syrians settle hundreds of thousands of people on the Golan, without appropriate means for treating the sewage and other sources of pollution, it will mean the end of the Kinneret – beyond any shadow of a doubt.

Testimony before Knesset State Control Committee 3.1.2000.

30 Months

after Oslo

30 Months before Oslo

Judea, Samaria, Gaza

Inside Green Line

Number of Israelis Killed Before and After Oslo

Before Oslo After Oslo

Number of Israelis Killed in the Period 1991-1996

Os

lo A

gre

em

en

t

Pre Oslo I (‘90-92) growth rate (6.6%)

Barak’s Camp David Offer

Signature of Oslo I

Signature of Oslo II

Post Oslo II (’96-99) growth rate (3.4%)

Post Oslo I (’94-96) growth rate (6.1%)

Total Post Oslo

Total Post Oslo

(1994-2000 ) Average

(1994-2000 ) Average

Growth 4.9% < 5.2%

Growth 4.9% < 5.2%

Ha’aretz )30-7-76(, by former Meretz Minister of Education, Prof. Amnon Rubinstein

Not since the time of Dr. Goebbels [Head of the Nazi Propaganda Machine] has there ever been a case in which continual repetition of a lie has born such great fruits....

Of all the Palestinian lies there is no lie greater or more crushing than that which calls for the establishment of a separate Palestinian state in the West Bank...

.

‘Palestinian Lies’

--Then Satan said to unto himself:This besieged foe, how is he to be overcome.Both courage and skill are hisHe is well armed and well alert Then said Satan: Not his strength I shall sapNor in bridle and muzzle shall I place himNor fear shall I bring into his heartNor cause him to be weak as he was beforeAll I shall do is this:

I shall dull his mindI shall dull his mindAnd make him forget And make him forget That righteousness is with himThat righteousness is with him..Thus spoke Satan, And the Heavens paled with fear as he rose To commit the deed.

Natan Alterman

- - אז אמר השטן: הנצור הזהאיך אוכל לו.

אתו האומץ וכשרון המעשהוכלי מלחמה ותושיה עצה לו.

ואמר: לא אטול כוחוולא רסן אשים ומתג

ולא מרך אביא בתוכוולא ידיו ארפה כמקדם,

אכהה מחואכהה מחורק זאת אעשה: .ושכח שאתו הצדקושכח שאתו הצדק

- - כך דבר השטן וכמו חורו שמים מאימה

בראותם אותו בקומולבצע את המזמה .

נתן אלתרמן

Building Peace on TruthBuilding Peace on Truth

“Peace”

Deceptive

Dictatorial

“Peace” = Mutual harmony

“Peace” = Lack of War due to Deterrence

Source: http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/ponsacs/seminars/Synopses/s92rumme.htm

The proposition that democracies are generally at peace with each The proposition that democracies are generally at peace with each other is [so] strongly supported . . . [it] has led some scholars to claim other is [so] strongly supported . . . [it] has led some scholars to claim that this finding is probably the closest thing that we have to a law in that this finding is probably the closest thing that we have to a law in international politics.international politics.

Z. Maoz & B. Russett, ‘Alliances, Contiguity, Wealth and Political Stability, International Interactions, Vol 17)3(, 1992

Peace Maintained by Inherent Tendency to Revert to Non-Violent Status Quo

Conceptual Representation of Democratic Peace as Stable

Equilibrium

Deterrent ForcePreventing Violence

Deterrent ForcePreventing Violence

Conceptual Representation of Non-Democratic Peace as Unstable

Equilibrium

Two Opposing Hypotheses to Account for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

The True Palestinian Aspiration is to EstablishEstablish a State for ThemselvesThemselves

The True Palestinian Aspiration is to DismantleDismantle a State for Jews

The Fuel of the Conflict is the AbsenceAbsence of PalestinianPalestinian Self Determination

The Fuel of the Conflict is the ExistenceExistence of JewishJewish Self Determination

Conventional Wisdom:

Alternative Wisdom:

King Hussein, Amman, Nov. 1987

The appearance of the Palestinian national personality comes as an answer to Israel’s claim that Palestine is Jewish.

Farouk Kadoumi, head of the PLO Political Department, Newsweek, on 14th March 1977.

Zuheir Muhsin, formerly the head of the PLO's Military Department and member of its Executive Council Dutch daily Trouw March 31, 1977

Yes, the existence of a separate Palestinian identity serves only tactical purposes. The founding of a Palestinian state is a new tool in the continuing battle against Israel.

There are no differences between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. We are all part of one nation. It is only for political reasons that we carefully underline our Palestinian identity, because it is in the interest of the Arabs to encourage a separate Palestinian identity.

… Jordanians and Palestinians are considered by the PLO as one people.

Article 12: The Palestinian people believe in Arab unity. In order to contribute their share toward the attainment of that belief, however, they must, at at the present stage of their strugglethe present stage of their struggle, safeguard their Palestinian identity and develop their consciousness of that identity, and oppose any plan that may dissolve or impair it.

Article 1. Palestine, the homeland of the Palestinian Arab people, is an inseparable part of the greater Arab homeland, and the Palestinian people are Palestinian people are a part of the Arab Nation.a part of the Arab Nation.

The Palestinian National CharterThe Palestinian National Charter

Stubborn insistence on the "right of return“,"right of return“, which implies placing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now living in Arab countries, under Israeli jurisdiction, a position hardly consistent with an alleged desire to be free of oppressive Israeli control... or with an equitable two-state solution.

Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity of the Barak Barak proposalproposal, but also the violent manner in which they rejected it. Although the proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end of "end of conflict“conflict“, they were unprecedented in the concessions offered towards making a Palestinian state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response is explic-able only if "end of conflict" is an unacceptable concept for them.

Palestinians refrained from demands to exert their national sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gazasovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of their original National Charter. Accept rule by a Hashemite Bedouin despot, who represents the minority in the land.

Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced in their rhetoric and rhetoric and symbolismsymbolism in which they portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of Arab Palestine.

Rejection of every territorial proposalevery territorial proposal, which would have allowed them to create a state of their own - from the 1947 partition plan to Barak's offer at Camp David in 2000

Unique Religion

Unique Language

Unique Script

Unique History

Unique Customs

Israel Palestinians

The Case for an Independent Nation StateThe Case for an Independent Nation State

Palestinian Statehood as a

Historical Anachronism

Two Competing Hypotheses

Re-Legitimize the Zionist Narrative

No credible capable

Palestinian leadership has

emerged Proven Palestinian

Political Incompetence Failure

despite very favorable conditions Palestinians

Failed test of history

Palestinian Behavior and

Decisions

Don’t DeserveStatehood

Rejected every

territorial proposal

Revealed Preferences:Declarations & Deeds

Don’t desire Statehood

De-legitimization of Palestinian

Narrative

Remove the Issue of

Palestinian Statehood from

Int’l AgendaThe Human

Predicament Persists

Abandon Political Paradigm;

Adopt Humanitarian one

Mutually Exclusive, Irreconcilable National

Claims

Superior Jewish Claims to

Self Determination

Concentrate on Dealing with the GenuineGenuine HumanitarianHumanitarian

PredicamentPredicament on Individual Basis - Rather than Fulfilling Spurious Political DemandsSpurious Political Demands

Redefine the Palestinian Problem

– and the Nature of its Solution

Cast in Humanitarian - Rather than Political - Terms

Territorial Compromise

FeasibilityFeasibility

Relocation and Rehabilitation

Individual Recipients

Host Countries

Economic Cost

Relocation and Rehabilitation as Individual Rational Choice

The individual The individual Palestinian Palestinian would have the would have the following following choiceschoices::

Continue life under Continue life under the Rigors of the Rigors of Israeli ControlIsraeli Control

Life under and even Life under and even more repressive and more repressive and

regressive regressive Palestinian RegimePalestinian Regime

Accept the Accept the Relocation Grant Relocation Grant and build a new life and build a new life of himself and his of himself and his familyfamily

Accept the Accept the Relocation Grant Relocation Grant

and build a new life and build a new life of himself and his of himself and his

familyfamily

Improve dramatically the lot of individual Palestinians

Defuse the Palestinian Defuse the Palestinian humanitarian predicamenthumanitarian predicament

Ensure the continued survival of Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people

Inject billions of dollars of funds Inject billions of dollars of funds in to the economies of low in to the economies of low income nationsincome nations

זו – אין תרצו אםאגדה

La Victoire, elle comme Dieu – si on y croit, elle existe

We Shall Overcome