kring background briefing about impact air blasts 18_feb2013

Background Briefing: Impact Air Blasts Produced by Near-Earth Asteroids

Dr. David A. Kring PI of the LPI-JSC NLSI Team

Detail from CLSE (Daniel D. Durda) image at http://www.lpi.usra.edu/nlsi/training/illustrations/bombardment/

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Abstract: On Friday, 15 February 2013, a small asteroid penetrated Earth’s atmosphere and catastrophically disrupted over Russia, injuring people and damaging buildings in the area around Chelaybinsk (55.2N, 61.4E). The injuries and damage were caused by shock waves and associated air blasts. I have received a lot of queries about these types of events and have collated some notes here to address them.

Detail from CLSE (Daniel D. Durda) image at http://www.lpi.usra.edu/nlsi/training/illustrations/bombardment/

On Friday, 15 February 2013, a small asteroid penetrated Earth’s atmosphere and catastrophically disrupted over Russia, injuring people and damaging buildings in the area around Chelyabinsk (55.2N, 61.4E). The injuries and damage were caused by shock waves and associated air blasts. I have received a lot of queries about these types of events and have collated some notes here to address them.

BRIEFING ABSTRACT

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Abstract: On Friday, 15 February 2013, a small asteroid penetrated Earth’s atmosphere and catastrophically disrupted over Russia, injuring people and damaging buildings in the area around Chelaybinsk (55.2N, 61.4E). The injuries and damage were caused by shock waves and associated air blasts. I have received a lot of queries about these types of events and have collated some notes here to address them.

CURRENT ESTIMATES OF EVENT PROPERTIES

Based on information released by Peter Brown and/or attributed to NASA (as of 18 February 2013)

• Diameter of asteroid = 55 ft (17 m) • Mass of asteroid = 10,000 tons • Velocity of asteroid = 40,000 mph (17-18 km/s) • Blast altitude = 15 to 20 km • Equivalent energy of the explosive event = 500 kt of TNT

NOTE: Other sources have generated different estimates for the values above; these values are preliminary and may change significantly.

The event was roughly an order of magnitude more energetic than the Sikhote-Alin event of 1947 (~10 kt), but roughly an order of magnitude less energetic than the Tunguska event of 1908 (~2-20 MT).

Caveats: Estimates of past events (even historical events like Tunguska) come with lots of uncertainty.

That uncertainty underscores the need for modern, high-quality measurements of impact-generated air blast events.


Based on information reported from Russia (as of 18 February 2013)

• A portion of the catastrophically fragmented asteroid survives • The meteoritic material resembles ordinary chondrites – which are from a class

of stony asteroids that contain a small amount of metal

Previously, the largest documented explosive fragmentation of an ordinary chondritic asteroid occurred over northwestern Arizona in the Gold Basin area. That event involved an ~8 meter diameter asteroid with the kinetic energy equivalent to 5 to 50 kt of TNT. Several thousand relics of the asteroid were found in the desert. See Kring et al. (2001) for details.

Gold Basin event

Typical asteroid velocity Average impact velocities of asteroids hitting the Earth are about 18 km/s.

The object that hit Earth 15 February 2013 has an estimated velocity of 17-18 km/s, which is typical of an asteroid and much lower than that of typical comets.

Thus, the velocity and the recovery of ordinary chondrites are consistent.

IMPACT VELOCITY

Illustration credit: CLSE (Shaner and Kring)

15 February 2013 event

COMPONENTS OF IMPACT AIR BLASTS

• Ballistic shock wave produced when an asteroid penetrates the atmosphere with speed equal to or in excess of 11.2 km/s (≥25,000 mph)

• Explosive shock wave produced when the object catastrophically fragments in the atmosphere or hits the surface to produce an impact crater

• The shock waves are accompanied by high-velocity air blasts • Similar effects were measured around nuclear explosions test sites

CASE STUDY OF AN IMPACT AIR BLAST – BARRINGER (METEOR) CRATER

See Kring (1997) and Grieve & Kring (2007) for details

Small cratering events In small events, the fireball, shock wave, and airblast are the major environmental effects. The blast effect was immediately lethal for human-sized animals within the inner 6 km diameter circle. Severe lung damage would occur within the next 10-12 km diameter circle due to the pressure pulse alone and animals would be severely injured and unlikely to survive.

20-50 m iron asteroid ~50,000 yrs ago Northern Arizona

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Figure 1.4 from Grieve and Kring (2007). Estimates of the pressure pulse and airblast damage associated with the Barringer impact event in northern Arizona. The blast effect was immediately lethal for human-sized animals within the inner 6 km diameter circle. Severe lung damage would occur within the next 10-12 km diameter circle due to the pressure pulse along and animals would be severely injured and unlikely to survive. Winds would exceed 1500 km/hr within the inner circle and still exceed 100 km/hr at radial distances of 25 km (3rd circle). The outermost ~50 km circle represents the outer limit of severe to moderate damage to trees and human-structures of comparable strength. Such an event today would decimate the population of an urban area equivalent to the size of Kansas City, U.S.A. (population 425,000). See Kring (1997) for additional details.



Small cratering events Winds would exceed 1500 km/hr within the inner circle and still exceed 100 km/hr at radial distances of 25 km (3rd circle). The outermost ~50 km circle represents the outer limit of severe to moderate damage to trees and human-structures of comparable strength.


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Small cratering events Such an event today could decimate the population of an urban area equivalent to the size of Kansas City, U.S.A. (population 425,000).


40 km circle corresponding to severe to moderate damage.

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CASE STUDY OF AN IMPACT AIR BLAST – MANICOUAGAN

Manicouagan Larger impact cratering events will produce air blasts that affect a larger area. Manicouagan is a crater with a diameter of ~100 km. That impact air blast affected a large fraction of Canada.

Grieve and Kring (2007)

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Figure 1.6 from Grieve and Kring (2007). Extent of airblast produced by the Manicouagan impact event. Near the impact site wind speeds would have exceeded 100 km/hr and eventually decelerated to hurricane-force winds at the largest distances. The white circular line corresponds to the limit of 4 psi (27 kPa) peak overpressures derived from Toon et al. (1997) (see also Fig. 1.5), which has the capacity to severely damage and kill planst and animals (Kring, 1997). The radial distance of the 4 psi limit is approximately 560 km.

CASE STUDY OF AN IMPACT AIR BLAST – CHICXULUB CRATER

See Emiliani et al. (1981) and Kring (2007) for details

Dinosaur-killing event At the extremely large end of the spectrum is the Chicxulub impact event that caused a mass extinction 65 million years ago. The air blast produced by that impact event affected a large fraction of North America. The airblast is only one of many environmental effects produced by this size of impact event.

Modified after Figure 1.5 of Grieve and Kring (2007). Please see that paper or PPTx notes (below) for a description of the uncertainties associated with the data plotted in the diagram

IMPACT AIR BLASTS OF DIFFERENT SIZES

Impact air blasts The Chelyabinsk event is at the extreme (small) end of the types of events that produce air blasts.

Less frequent, larger events can affect larger areas. As the world’s population grows and occupies a larger fraction of the Earth’s surface, events like Chelyabinsk will become more common.

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Figure 1.5. of Grieve and Kring (2007). Logarithmic plot of area damaged by overpressures in excess of 4 psi (276 hPa) as a function of impact energy in MT TNT equivalent. The smallest events will detonate in the atmosphere (like Tunguska). Large impacting bodies will impact the surface, where the efficiency of energy conversion into atmospheric shock wave is less than atmospheric explosions at optimum blast height (dashed line). Approximate rates of occurrence of impact events of a particular magnitude are indicated in orders of magnitude. The propagation of the air blast in the largest impact events may be affected by the curvature of the Earth, which was accommodated by assuming that the wave travels radially and does not produce over-the-horizon damage. Modified from Toon et al. (1997), which includes additional details. Approximate rates of occurrence of impact events of particular magnitudes are indicated at the level of orders of magnitude. These estimates are also from Toon et al. (1997). We note, however, that the 1 million year frequency may be too high and may be better located below the Ries event. There is also an order of magnitude uncertainty associated with derived impact energies for all events and considerable uncertainties in extrapolating to larger events, because the finite thickness of the atmosphere. As a result, the area of airblast damage at the larger events may be an overestimate. �

SOURCES OF NEAR-EARTH ASTEROIDS

NEA source region Near-Earth asteroids come from the main asteroid belt. Their orbits, once nearly circular, have been perturbed by gravitational processes into elliptical orbits that cross the orbit of Earth. The pre-impact orbits of previously fallen meteorites illustrate this point.

The measured compressive strengths of ordinary chondrites may not be the best measure of the structural integrity of near-Earth asteroids (see Kring et al. 1996 for evidence and discussion). Instead, the strength of material may be limited to structural flaws (like fractures or material contrasts) rather than the strength of individual clasts within them. The fall phenomena associated with meteorites support the idea that structural flaws limit the strength of near-Earth asteroid material. For example, fragmental breccias preferentially fall apart in Earth’s atmosphere and produce meteorite showers (Kring et al. 1999). IMPORTANT : The Chelyabinsk event, if documented well, can be used to determine the strength of the near-Earth asteroid, which is a fundamental parameter needed for impact mitigation strategies.

THE STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF NEAR-EARTH ASTEROIDS

Emiliani, C., E. B. Kraus, and E. M. Shoemaker (1981) Sudden death at the end of the Mesozoic. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 55, 317-334. Grieve, R. A. F. and D. A. Kring (2007) The geologic record of destructive impact events on Earth. In Comet/Asteriod Impacts and Human Society, P. Bobrowsky and H. Rickman (eds.), Springer, Berlin, pp. 3-24. Kring, D. A. (1997) Air blast produced by the Meteor Crater impact event and a reconstruction of the affected environment. Meteoritics and Planetary Science 32, 517-530. Kring, D. A. (2007) The Chicxulub impact event and its environmental consequences at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 255, 4-21. Kring, D. A., T. D. Swindle, D. T. Britt, and J. A. Grier (1996) Cat Mountain: A meteoritic sample of an impact-melted asteroid regolith. Journal of Geophysical Research 101, 29353-29371.

REFERENCES

Kring, D. A., D. H. Hill, J. D. Gleason, D. T. Britt, G. J. Consolmagno, M. Farmer, S. Wilson, and R. Haag (1999) Portales Valley: A meteoritic sample of the brecciated and metal-veined floor of an impact crater on an H-chondrite asteriod. Meteoritics and Planetary Science 34, 663-669. Kring, D. A., A. J. T. Jull, L. R. McHargue, P. A. Bland, D. H. Hill, and F. J. Berry (2001) Gold Basin meteorite strewn field, Mojave Desert, northwestern Arizona: Relic of a small late Pleistocene impact event. Meteoritics and Planetary Science 36, 1057-1066.

REFERENCES

Additional Slides

SIKHOTE-ALIN EVENT 1947

12 February 1947 Iron asteroid (type IIAB coarsest octahedrite) 46°9’36” N, 134°39’12” E Sikhote-Alin Mountains, 25 miles from Novopoltavka, Maritime Province, Russia A shower of fireballs produced 106 impact holes, the largest 28 meters in diameter, over an area of 100 by 660 meters. Over 27,000 kg of metal was found, the largest fragment weighing 300 kg. Some of the metal have a characteristic shrapnel appearance.

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TUNGUSKA EVENT 1908

30 June 1908 Believed to be a stony asteroid 60°54’ N, 101°57’ E Krasnoyarskiy Kray, Evenki, Russia An immense fireball and a catastrophic air blast flattened a large section of forest and may have initiated short-lived fires. Estimated mass of object is one thousand to one million tons. Traces of surviving material from the impactor have been reported, but the object was effectively obliterated in the explosion.

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OTHER EVENTS FOR COMPARISON

Barringer Meteorite Crater (aka Meteor Crater), Arizona, ~50,000 years ago • Estimated equivalent energy of cratering event ranges from ~2 to ~20 MT • Iron asteroid • Estimated diameter ranges from ~10 to ~50 m

Gold Basin, Arizona, 15-20 thousand years ago (Kring et al. 2001)

• Estimate equivalent energy of 5 to 50 kt of TNT • ~8 meter diameter object • Asteroid was composed of a breccia from the L-chondrite parent body

Asteroid 2008 TC3, Sudan, 2008 (Shaddad et al. 2010) • Estimated equivalent energy of 1.2 kt of TNT • Breccia

Indonesia 8 October 2009 (Silber et al. 2011)

• Estimated equivalent energy of atmospheric blast = 8 to 67 kt of TNT • Favored best estimate of ~50 kt • Type of asteroid unknown

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OTHER EVENTS FOR COMPARISON

Sutter’s Mill, California, 22 April 2012 (Jenniskens et al. 2012) • Estimated equivalent energy of 4.0 (-2.2/+3.4) kt of TNT • High-speed entry velocity of 28.6 km/s • ~2.5 m object • Composed of regolith breccia from a carbonaceous chondrite parent body

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ORDINARY CHONDRITE ASTEROID SAMPLES

We have over 50,000 samples of near-Earth asteroids in our collections That includes a large number of samples from ordinary chondrite parent bodies. There are at least three types of ordinary chondrite parent bodies:

• Type H – 17,747 meteorite samples • Type L – 15,734 meteorite samples • Type LL – 5,839 meteorite samples • Totaling nearly 40,000 samples from ordinary chondrite parent bodies • Per the Meteoritical Bulletin Database

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Current estimates are based on infrasound data from the International Monitory System (IMS) operated by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). Estimates are also possible from satellite energy spectra, ground-based radar data, and from the range of damage on the surface if the blast height is known.

The energy of the event and blast height are first-order products of the data analysis. If a velocity is known, then the mass of the object can be inferred from the kinetic energy (1/2 mv2). If a density is assumed, then the average size of the object can be estimated. Passage through the atmosphere can decelerate the object (hence affect velocity) and shed mass. Any meteoritic material found can be used to refine the assumed density.

SMALL METEOR SEEN FROM THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION (ISS)

Meteors Most debris hitting the Earth’s atmosphere is too small to penetrate and burns up without causing any damage.

Astronaut ISS photograph of meteor as it passes through the atmosphere.

The image was taken on August 13, 2011, during the Perseid Meteor Shower of particles that originate from Comet Swift-Tuttle.

ISS028-E-024847

PENETRATING EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE

Meteoroids in Earth’s atmosphere The atmosphere is an effective filter of impacting debris

Intermediate-size objects that are not destroyed in the upper atmosphere can fragment, producing a shower of debris, or survive nearly intact, producing a single meteorite.

Multiple fragmentation events are possible.

Larger objects that are not significantly decelerated and reach the ground can produce hypervelocity impact craters.

Krinov

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Figure 10 of Krinov (1966). Diagram of meteorite falls. Bibliographic details: E. L. Krinov (1966) Giant Meteorites. (Translated from Russian by J. S. Romankiewicz.) Pergamon Press, New York, 397p.

NOT ALL METEORITE SHOWERS PRODUCE DAMAGING AIRBLASTS

Portales Valley event At~7:30 am on 13 June 1998, a meteoroid entered Earth’s atmosphere and fell near Portales, New Mexico. Witnesses reported hearing detonations and seeing smoke trails in the sky. Before hitting the ground, the meteoroid fragmented at least once, producing a strewn field with a length over 10 km. See Kring et al. (1999) for details.

Kring, D. A., D. H. Hill, J. D. Gleason, D. T. Britt, G. J. Consolmagno, M. Farmer, S. Wilson, and R. Haag (1999) Portales Valley: A meteoritic sample of the brecciated and metal-veined floor of an impact crater on an H-chondrite asteroid. Meteoritics and Planetary Science 34, 663-669. Krinov, E. L. (1966) Giant Meteorites. (Translated from Russian by J. S. Romankiewicz.) Pergamon Press, New York, 397p. Jenniskens, P. et al. (2012) Radar-enabled recovery of the Sutter’s Mill meteorite, a carbonaceous chondrite regolith breccia. Science 338, 1583-1587. Shaddad, M. H. et al. (2010) The recovery of asteroid 2008 TC3. Meteoritics and Planetary Science 45, 1557-1589. Silber, E. A., A. Le Pichon, and P. G. Brown (2011) Infrasonic detection of a near-Earth asteroid object impact over Indonesia on 8 October 2009. Geophysical Research Letters 38, L12201, doi:10.1029/2011GL047633.

REFERENCES FOR ADDITIONAL SLIDES

kring background briefing about impact air blasts 18_feb2013

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