Kosovo Jan Pieter Catrysse, Tomoyuki Yamada

Structure 1. Historical Background 2. Key events & Tipping points 3. Failures & Lessons 4. The Significance of Kosovo Case 5. Current Situations and Issues to

Ponder

Yugoslavia　 -Serbia and Kosovo-

Population-Albanians: Majority-Serbs: Minority

Yugo’s political system

-Federation consisted of republics

-Granted Kosovo autonomy till 1994

What brought about the nightmare?

Ibrahim Rugova Leader of Democratic

League of Kosovo(DLK)

Dayton Agreement (1995 Nov)

KLA started to attack Serbs and Serbs’ retaliation

Escalation of violence

Overview of Kosovo Events Resolutions(Nov1995 )Dayton Agreement(1996) KLA started to attack SerbianForceForced expulsion of Albanians by Serbs

(31st March 1998) Resolution 1160Serbs began new offenses in Dacani

(23rd Sep) Resolution 1199No-compliance by Serbs

(13th Oct) NATO’s activation order“October Agreement”

(24th Oct) Resolution1203Another peace conferences in Rambouillet and Paris

(25th May 1999) NATO air strike began

Resolution 1160 Demand both Kosovar Albanians and

Serbs to stop waging violence against each other

Encourage both sides to solve the current situation peacefully(somewhat tilting to the autonomy of Kosovo)

Resolution 1199 Calls for immediate cease fire

negotiation(same as Resolution 1160) without any military back-up

More words trying to stop ethnic-cleansing

Excerpt from Resolution 1199 “to resolve existing problems by political

means on the basis of equality for all citizens and ethnic communities in Kosovo”

NATO’s activation order and Resolution 1203 NATO’s activation order on 13th Oct -means to pressure Milosevic to sit on the

peace negotiation

This time the actual bombing didn’t happen !

Resolution 1203 confirmed the significance of military force to ensure peace negotiations would succeed.

NATO’s Bombardment in 1999 Clinton and Blair -took initiatives

Targeting Serbian war machinery, but later infrastructure(bridges, plants etc.)

Finally Peace ……? Resolution 1244 1999 6th June Its content is:- Kosovo gained autonomy and the first

election for Kosovo Assembly resulted in Rugova’s election as president.

2008 declared independence

Failures - what could/should have been done-

1. Didn’t learn little from Bosnia intervention

lack of important info 2. Exaggeration of the situation(Clinton’s

remark to equate Serbian cleansing to Nazi Holocost)

3. Set the standard of “Humanitarian intervention”.

4. The source of problem is not oppressive Serbs, but democratisation based on ethnic nationalism.

Alternative discourse : Western Propaganda

Powerful justification of bombardment“To protect civilians from the impending

catastrophe”

What happened in Kosovo is equal to Nazi Holocost(Clinton’s remark)

The Dark Side of Democracy Democracy: The Govt. of “the people”,

by “the people”, for “the people”. Question is…

WHO ARE THE PEOPLE?

Evaluation NATO’s bombing in 1999Supreme Humanitarian Emergency

〇Necessity/ Last Resort △Proportionality ×Positive Humanitarian Outcome/Short-term

×／△ /Long term

△／〇

Humanitarian Motives △Humanitarian Justifications 〇Legality ×Selectivity △

Last Resort: Opinion with hindsight 13th Oct NATO’s activation order could

pull the deal from Milosevic

Might have been a chance to do the same with the aerial and ground forces deployment to pressurise him

Proportionality: the process was unfair

FRY and KLA both waged violence against each other though FRY’s brutality was more intense.

It seems that the UN and the US, the UK began to tilt toward Kosovo independence after FRY started ethnic-cleansing.

The fact that KLA killed/abducted Serb citizens was not much of a popular attention.

Positive Humanitarian Outcome Short-term: Retaliation, not reconciliation -Common myth about Genocide or

Ethnic-cleansing: WHOLE ethnic group VS Another WHOLE

SOME from one ethnicity VS Another SOME

Long-term: OSCE supervised elections, Rugova became the president of Kosovo Assembly

Selectivity If the UN and NATO countries knew at all, they wanted to clean up the backfire of

Dayton

Kosovo was the case leading to the emergence of R2P criteria

The intention to protect Humanitarian values counts more than alturism.

Lessons 1. The effectiveness of air strike(not the

decisive way to resolve conflicts)

2. Peace-building rather than Peace-making have to be more thoroughly planed and eagerly implemented

Cycle of Rebirth: Cull the weeds and burn its roots

Ethnicity-based politics: Should rest in peace

Just holding elections and changing “bad and even criminal leader” are mostly temporary solution.

Possible alternative solutions -The installation of “the spirits of

democracy” aka compromises - (less realistic) exchange of ethnic

minorities

The legacy of Kosovo Case The emergence of the notion of “R2P”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rusF4OJzGbo

The new norm of “Humanitarian Intervention” -conventional: national integrity is the priority

and clear distinction bet. Humanitarian and national interests

-New: the merger of Humanitarian values and self-interest (Blair and Clinton’s speech)

“Be Humanitarian first, then Realist”

Current situation of Serbia&Kosovo Population: Albanians around 98% and

Serbs 2% Economic situation: not really

prospective, one of the most poorest countries in Europe.

Ethnic tension bet. Kosovar Albanians and Serbs still lingers.

EU as ”a Broker”

“Don’t be shy!”

Thank you for listening!