kmt warming good - ice age

8/14/2019 KMT Warming Good - Ice Age

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SDI 2008 KMTWarming Good Ice Age

WARMING GOOD ICE AGE

WARMING GOOD ICE AGE .........................................................................................................................11NC SHELL ........................................................................................................................................................21NC SHELL ........................................................................................................................................................3U ICE AGE COMING .....................................................................................................................................4U ICE AGE COMING .....................................................................................................................................5U TEMPS ARE COOLING - AT: ICE MELTS ............................................................................................6U TEMPS ARE COOLING SOLAR VARIATIONS ....................................................................................7AT: WILKENS ICE SHELF COLLAPSE .........................................................................................................8ICE AGE BRINKS ..............................................................................................................................................9GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE .....................................................................................10GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE .....................................................................................11GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE .....................................................................................12GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE .....................................................................................13MILANKOVITCH THEORY TRUE ...............................................................................................................14ICE AGE IMPACTS .........................................................................................................................................15ICE AGE IMPACTS EXTINCTION ..........................................................................................................16ICE AGE IMPACTS SUPERVOLCANOES ..............................................................................................17ICE AGE IMPACTS SUPERVOLCANOES ..............................................................................................18ICE AGE IMPACTS WAR .........................................................................................................................19ICE AGE IMPACTS SPECIES LOSS ........................................................................................................20ICE AGE IMPACTS - FAMINE ....................................................................................................................212NC FRONTLINE NO NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT SHUTDOWN ....................................................222NC FRONTLINE NO NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT SHUTDOWN ....................................................23NAC ANS - #1 THEORY WRONG ..............................................................................................................24NAC ANS - #1 THEORY WRONG ..............................................................................................................25

GLOBAL WARMING ICE AGE 2AC .....................................................................................................26



1AR WARMING ICE AGE ......................................................................................................................29EXTS NO ICE AGE COMING NOW ...........................................................................................................30EXTS NO ICE AGE COMING NOW ...........................................................................................................31

EXTS GLOBAL WARMING ICE AGE ...................................................................................................32

EXTS WARMING ICE AGE ....................................................................................................................33

EXTS WARMING ICE AGE ....................................................................................................................34



EXTS GLOBAL WARMING ICE AGE ...................................................................................................38EXTS CONVEYOR BELT BRINKS ............................................................................................................39ICE AGE ANS WARMING OUTWEIGHS ..................................................................................................40IMPACT ANS WE CAN ADAPT WITH TECH ...........................................................................................41

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1NC SHELL

A. STATUS QUO CO2 EMISSIONS MEANS PERMANENT WARMTH WE WILL BE ABLE TO

STAVE OFF THE NEXT ICE AGE

BERGER AND LOUTRE 2002 [Andre and MF, professors @ Universite catholique de Louvain, Anexceptionally long interglacial ahead?, SCIENCE, August, lexis/ttate]On a geological time scale, climate cycles are believed to be driven by changes in insulation (solar radiation received at the top of theatmosphere) as a result of variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.Over the next 100,000 years, the amplitude of insulation variations will besmall (see the figure), much smaller than during the Eemian. For example, at 65 deg N in June, insulation will vary by less than 25 Wmz over the next 25,000 years, compared with 110

Wm^sup -2^ between 125,000 and 115,000 years ago. From the standpoint of insulation,the Eemian can hardly be taken as an analog for the nextmillennia, as is often assumed. The small amplitude of future insolation variations is exceptional. One of the few past analogs (13)occurred at about 400,000 years before the present, overlapping part of MIS-- 11. Then and now, very low eccentricity values coincided with the minima of the 400,000-year eccentricitycycle. Eccentricity will reach almost zero within the next 25,000 years, damping the variations of precession considerably. Simulations with a two-dimensional climate model (14), forcedwith insolation and CO^sub 2^ variations over the next 100,000 years, provide an insight into the possible consequences of this rare phenomenon. Most CO^sub 2^ scenarios (15) led to anexceptionally long interglacial from 5000 years before the present to 50,000 years from now (see the bottom panel of the figure), with the next glacial maximum in 100,000 years. Only forCO^sub 2^ concentrations less than 220 ppmv was an ear ly entrance into glaciation simulated (15). Such a long interglacial appears to have occurred only once in the last 500,000 years, atMIS-11 (2, 3, 16). At this time, astronomical insolation and some proxy climate indicators were similar to those of today. The COZ concentration was at an interglacial level [slightlyabove 280 ppmv (8)]. Simulations with these values (16) also show a particularly long interglacial, illustrating the importance of CO^sub 2^ concentrations during periods when the

amplitude of insolation variation is too small to drive the climate system.The present-day CO^sub 2^ concentration of 370 ppmv is already wellabove typical interglacial values of ~290 ppmv.Taking into account anthropogenic perturbations, we have studied furtherin which the CO2 concentration increases to up to 750 ppmv over the next 200 years, returning to natural levels by 1000 years from now (13, 15). The resultssuggest that, under very small insolation variations, there is a threshold value of CO^sub 2^ above which theGreenland Ice Sheet disappears (see the bottom panel of the figure). The climate system may take 50,000 years to assimilate the

impacts of human activities during the early third millennium. In this case, an "irreversible greenhouse effect" couldbecome the most likely future climate. If the Greenland and west Antarctic Ice Sheets disappear completely, then today's"Anthropocene" (17) may only be a transition between the Quaternary and the next geological period. J. MurrayMitchell Jr. already predicted in 1972 that "The net impact of human activities on the climate of the future decades and centuriesis quite likely to be one of warming and therefore favorable to the perpetuation of the present interglacial" [(1), p. 436].

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1NC SHELL

AND, THE IMPACT OF ICE AGE OUTWEIGHS GLOBAL WARMING EXTINCTION

JAWOROWSKI 2004 [Zbigniew, chairman @ Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory forRadiological Protection in Warsaw, 21ST CENTURY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Winter/ttate]It is difficult to predict the advent of a new Ice Age-the time when continental glaciers will start to cover Scandinavia, Central and Northern Europe, Asia, Canada, and the United States,

Chile and Argentina witha layer of ice hundreds and thousands of meters thick; when mountain glaciers in the Himalayas, Andes and Alps, in Africa andIndonesia once again will descend into the valleys. Some climatologists claim that this will happen in 50 to 150 years.What fate awaits the Baltic Sea, the lakes, the forests, animals, cities, nations, and the whole infrastructure ofmodern civilization? They will be swept away bythe advancing ice and then covered by moraine hills. This disaster will be incomparably more calamitous than all the

doomsday prophecies of the proponents of the ~-made global warming hypothesis.The current sunspot cycle is weaker than the preceding cycles, and the next two cycles will be even weaker. Bashkirtsev and Mishnich expect that the minimum of the sec- ular cycle of solar activity

will occurbetween 2021 and 2026, which will result in the minimum global temperature of the surface air. The shift from warm to cool climate might have already started. The averageannual air temperature in Irkutsk, which correlates well with the average annual global temperature of the surface air, reached its maximum of +2.3C in 1997, and then began to drop to+1.2C in 1998, to +0.7C in 1999, and to +0.4C in 2000. This prediction is in agreement with major changes observed currently in biota of Pacific Ocean, associated with an oscillatingclimate cycle of about 50 years periodicity.

The approaching new Ice Age poses a real challenge for mankind, much greater than all the other challenges in history. Before it comes-let's enjoy the warming, thisbenign gift from nature, and let's vigorously investigate the physics of clouds. F. Hoyle and C. Wickramasinghe stated recently that "without someartificial means of giving positive feedback to the climate ... an eventual drift into Ice Age conditions appearsinevitable." These conditions "would render a large fraction of the world's major food growing areas inoperable, and so

would inevitably lead to the extinction ofmost of the present human population." According to Hoyle and Wickramsinghe, "thosewho have engaged in uncritical scaremongering over an enhanced greenhouse effect raising the Earth's temperature by

a degree or two should be seen as both misguided and dangerous," forthe problem of the present "is ofa drift back into anIce Age, not away from an Ice Age."Will mankind be able to protect the biosphere against the next returning Ice Age? It depends on how much time we still have. I do not think that in the next 50 years we would acquire theknowledge and resources sufficient for governing climate on a global scale. Surely we shall not s top climate cooling by increasing industrial CO2 emissions. Even with the doubling ofCO2 atmospheric levels, the increase in global surface air temperature would be trifling. However, it is unlikely that permanent doubling of the atmospheric CO2 , even using all ourcar- bon resources, is attainable by human activities. Also, it does not seem possible that we will ever gain influence over the Suns activity. However, I think that in the next centurieswe shall learn to control sea currents and clouds, and this could be sufficient to govern the climate of our planet.The following "thought experiment" illustrates how valuable our civilization, and the very existence of man's intellect, for the terrestrial biosphere. Mikhail Budyko, the leading Russian

climatologist (now deceased) predicted in 1982 a future drastic C02 deficit in the atmosphere, and claimed that one of the nextIce Age periods could result in afreezing of the entire surface of the Earth, including the oceans. The only niches of life, he said, would survive on the activevolcano edges.

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U ICE AGE COMING

ORBITAL CYCLES PROVE WE SHOULD BE IN A NATURAL ICE AGE BY 2012

CARUBA 2008 [Alan, YEARBOOK OF EXPERTS, February 19/ttate]Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, is

staff researcher of the Oceanology Institute. He recently published a commentary asserting that a global coldspell could replace global warming. Note that the Earth has been warming-about one degree Fahrenheit-sincethe last mini-Ice Age ended around 1850. "The real reasons for climate change are uneven solar radiation",said Dr. Sorokhtin, while citing others that include the Earth's axis gyration and instability of oceaniccurrents."Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radiusand area of the irradiating solar surface." Yes, the Sun itself goes through periods of change. Dr. Sorokhtinbelieves that "Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years oreven longer."There is a reason scientists refer to our era as an "interglacial period", i.e., a time between Ice Ages. We are

at the end of an 11,500 cycle.

ICE AGE COMINGGLACIER DATA PROVES

HECHT 2005 [Laurence, editor, Is a new ice age underway?, 21ST CENTURY SCIENCE ANDTECHNOLOGY MAGAZINE, http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/Ice_Age.html / ttate]Watch out, Al Gore. The glaciers will get you! With that appended note, my friend, retired field geologistJack Sauers, forwarded to me a report that should have been a lead item in every newspaper in the world. Itwas the news that the best-measured glacier in North America, the Nisqually on Mount Rainier, has beengrowing since 1931.

The significance of the fact, immediately grasped by any competent climatologist, is that glacial advance isan early warning sign of Northern Hemisphere chilling of the sort that can bring on an Ice Age. The lastLittle Ice Age continued from about 1400 to 1850. It was followed by a period of slight warming. There are agrowing number of signs that we may be descending into another Little Ice Ageall the mountains ofglobal warming propaganda aside.

REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERNS PROVE ICE AGE IS COMING

CARUBA 2008 [Alan, YEARBOOK OF EXPERTS, February 19 / ttate]If you have been paying attention to global weather reports, you know that China has had the heaviestsnowfall in at least three decades. David Deming, a geophysicist, in a December 19, 2007 article in TheWashington Times, noted that, "South America this year experienced one of its coldest winters in decades. InBuenos Aires, snow fell for the first time since the year 1918." This occurred across the entire SouthernHemisphere. "Johannesburg, South Africa, had the first significant snowfall in 26 years. Australiaexperienced the coldest June ever."

It must be said that one big blizzard does not an Ice Age make, but a whole series of events that suggest acooling cycle may well be the warning that is being ignored in the midst of the vast global warming hoax.

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http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/Ice_Age.html%20/http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/Ice_Age.html%20/


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U TEMPS ARE COOLING - AT: ICE MELTS

ICE GROWING IN THE ANTARCTIC REGIONS

CREATING ORWELLIAN WORLDVIEW 2008[Media ignores record ice growth and cooling

Temperatures, lexis/ttate]According to Joseph DAleo a certified consulting meteorologist last year the Antarctic set a new record forice growth and this summer a unprecedented snow fall covered the southern hemispherebut you didnt hearthat in the media did you? Why? I think we all know why. That type of news doesnt fit in with the popularmedia meme ofGlobal warming.

DAleo claims that recent reports citing Global warming as the fault for the phenomena in Antarctica aremisleading. According to DAleo in comparison to the vast ice mass of Antarctica the Wilkins ice sheetbreak amounts to an icicle falling from a snow and ice cover roof. No big deal.

It is also DAleo claim that, winter is coming on quickly. Satellite images show the ice has already refrozen

around the broken pieces and expanded. In fact the ice is returning so fast, it is running an amazing 60%ahead (4.0 vs 2.5 million square km extent) of last year when it set a new record.

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http://icecap.us/images/uploads/MISLEADING_REPORTS_ABOUT_ANTARCTICA.pdfhttp://icecap.us/images/uploads/MISLEADING_REPORTS_ABOUT_ANTARCTICA.pdfhttp://icecap.us/images/uploads/MISLEADING_REPORTS_ABOUT_ANTARCTICA.pdf


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U TEMPS ARE COOLING SOLAR VARIATIONS

SOLAR VARIATIONS GLOBAL TEMPS COOLINGBELLINGHAM HERALD 2008 [Geologist: Suns shift could mean global chill, April 09,

proquest/ttate]

Apr. 9--BELLINGHAM -- Fluctuations in solar radiation could mean colder weather in the decades ahead, despite allthe talk about global warming, retired Western Washington University geologist Don Easterbrook said Tuesday.

Easterbrook is convinced that the threat of global warming from mankind's carbon dioxide pollution isoverblown.

In a campus lecture, he cited centuries of climate data in an effort to convince a somewhat skeptical audiencethat carbon dioxide's impact on climate is being much exaggerated by former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and by scientists whoappear to have won the debate over global warming.

"Despite all you hear about the debate being over, the debate is just starting," Easterbrook said.

30-YEAR TREND

Easterbrook doesn't deny that the Earth's climate has been warming slowly since about 1980. But he arguedthat this warming trend fits a longstanding pattern of warming and cooling cycles that last roughly 30 years.Sunspot activity and other solar changes appear to explain the 30-year cycles, he said.

If that pattern persists, the earth could now be close to the next 30-year cooling cycle, Easterbrook said.

He noted that the 2007-08 winter set records for cold and snow in many parts of the globe. According to the data he displayed, the Earth's temperature hit a peak in1998 and has been steady or slightly cooler since then.

"One cold winter doesn't mean much of anything," he said. "A 10-year trend is interesting."

He contended that warming periods appear to match periods of sunspot activity, which currently is at a low point.

Easterbrook noted that astrophysicists have been expecting that activity to begin increasing soon, but so far it has not.

Prolonged periods of low activity could lead to a dramatic cooling such as occurred in Europe during the so-called "Little Ice Age," a term loosely used to describecooler weather in the 14th to 19th centuries, Easterbrook said.

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AT: WILKENS ICE SHELF COLLAPSE

TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ANTARCTIC THE ICE SHELF DID NOT COLLAPSE

DUE TO WARMING

CREATING ORWELLIAN WORLDVIEW 2008[Media ignores record ice growth and coolingTemperatures, lexis/ttate]The Ice in Antarctic is not melting at a dangerous rate because ofGlobal warming. In reality temperatureshave been cooling on the continent since 1979.

Yet this MSNBC report filed by Andrea Thompson gives the unwarranted impression that one, the shelfcollapse was due to Global warming and two, this collapse was an enormous Ice mass.

Wrong on both counts tectonic activity (earth movement) was the cause of the Wilkins Ice Shelf collapsenot Global warming as reported. This movement is usually associated with Earthquakes, volcanic activity,mountain-building and oceanic trench formation and secondly in relations to the vast geographic region of

Antarctica the Wilkins Ice Shelf collapse is but a small section ofice in comparison. The picture abovedemonstrates how large and cold the area is which we are discussing.

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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23797247http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_plateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_plateshttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23797247http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_plates


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ICE AGE BRINKS

WE ARE ON THE BRINK THE NEXT ICE AGE WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW YEARS TO BEGIN

TAYLOR2004 [James M., managing editor, NY Times: Greenhouse gases may avert next ice age,

ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE NEWS, January 01,http://www.globalwarmingheartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=14022/ ttate]With or without global warming, the Times reports many experts are convinced the current warmth shouldend any millennium now. Not only is the next ice age overdue, but the scientific evidence suggests theEarth typically transitions from warming periods to full-fledged ice ages in a matter of decades. This, as theTimes noted, has many scientists wondering: Is it really wise for policymakers to be considering drastic stepsto forestall warming?

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http://www.globalwarmingheartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=14022http://www.globalwarmingheartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=14022http://www.globalwarmingheartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=14022


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GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTS NEXT ICE AGE

CO2 Emissions are key to stop at least Five Ice Ages

ScienceDailyAug. 30, 2007 Dr Tyrrell is a Reader in the University of Southampton's School of Ocean and

Earth Science. This research was published in Tellus B, vol 59 p664ScienceDaily (Aug. 30, 2007) Future ice ages may be delayed by up to half a million years by our burning of fossilfuels. That is the implication of recent work by Dr Toby Tyrrell of the University of Southampton's School ofOcean and Earth Science at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton. Arguably, this workdemonstrates the most far-reaching disruption of long-term planetary processes yet suggested for humanactivity. Dr Tyrrell's team used a mathematical model to study what would happen to marine chemistry in aworld with ever-increasing supplies of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. The world's oceans are absorbingCO2 from the atmosphere but in doing so they are becoming more acidic. This in turn is dissolving thecalcium carbonate in the shells produced by surface-dwelling marine organisms, adding even more carbon tothe oceans. The outcome is elevated carbon dioxide for far longer than previously assumed. Computermodelling in 2004 by a then oceanography undergraduate student at the University, Stephanie Castle, first

interested Dr Tyrrell and colleague Professor John Shepherd in the problem. They subsequently developed atheoretical analysis to validate the plausibility of the phenomenon. The work, which is part-funded by theNatural Environment Research Council, confirms earlier ideas of David Archer of the University of Chicago,who first estimated the impact rising CO2 levels would have on the timing of the next ice age. Dr Tyrrellsaid: 'Our research shows why atmospheric CO2 will not return to pre-industrial levels after we stop burningfossil fuels. It shows that it if we use up all known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them.The result would be the same if we burned them at present rates or at more moderate rates; we would still getthe same eventual ice-age-prevention result.' Ice ages occur around every 100,000 years as the pattern ofEarth's orbit alters over time. Changes in the way the sun strikes the Earth allows for the growth of ice caps,plunging the Earth into an ice age. But it is not only variations in received sunlight that determine the descentinto an ice age; levels of atmospheric CO2 are also important. Humanity has to date burnt about 300 Gt C of

fossil fuels. This work suggests that even if only 1000 Gt C (gigatonnes of carbon) are eventually burnt (outof total reserves of about 4000 Gt C) then it is likely that the next ice age will be skipped. Burning allrecoverable fossil fuels could lead to avoidance of the next five ice ages.

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WE ARE OVERDUE FOR AN ICE AGE THE IMPACTS OUTWEIGH WARMING MORE

WARMING KEY TO HUMAN SURVIVAL

WEEKEND AUSTRALIAN 2008 [April 26, lexis/hayes]The latest countercultural contribution came in The Australian on Wednesday.Phil Chapman is a geophysicist and the first Australian to become a NASA astronaut. He makesthe standard argument that the average temperature on earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbondioxide, with a new twist.

As of last year, the global temperature is falling precipitously. All four of the agencies that track global temperatures (Hadley, NASAGoddard, the Christy group and Remote Sensing Systems) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007.

Chapman comments: ``This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where wewere in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over. It istime to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little iceage, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.''

A little ice age would be ``much more harmful than anything warming may do'', but still benign by comparison with thesevere glaciation that for the past several million years has almost always blighted theplanet.The Holocene, the warm interglacial period we've been enjoying through the past 11,000 years, has lasted longer

than normal and is due to come to an end. When it does, glaciation can occur quite quickly. For most of Europe andNorth America to be buried under a layer of ice, eventually growing to a thickness of about 1.5km, the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and itcan happen in as little as 20 years.

Chapman says: ``The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years . On theother hand, it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027. By then, most of the advanced nations would haveceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyondimagining. Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees.''Chapman canvases strategies that may just conceivably prevent or at least delay the transition to severe glaciation. One involves a vast bulldozing program to dirtyand darken the snowfields in Canada and Siberia, ``in the hope of reducing reflectance so as to absorb more warmth from the sun. We may also be able to releaseenormous floods of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from the hydrates under the Arctic permafrost and on the continental shelves, perhaps using nuclearweapons to destabilise the deposits''.

He concludes: ``All those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the blinkers and give some

thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead. It will be difficult for people to face the truth when theirreputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation may be at stake.''

The 10-year plateau in global temperatures since 1998 has already sunk the hypothesis that anthropogenicgreenhouse gas will lead to catastrophic global warming. To minds open to the evidence, it has been a collapsing paradigm for quitesome time.

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Global warming prevents next ice age

Thompson 2007 [Global Warming Good News: No More Ice Ages, LiveScience, 9/7/07

[http://www.livescience.com/environment/070907_co2_iceage.html], ChinikamwalaThe ocean is absorbing some of the carbon dioxide emitted into the air, which is causing it to become more acidic (similarly, the

bubbles of carbon dioxide dissolved in your soda are what give it acidity).

Tyrrell and his team's model shows that carbon dioxide levels will be higher far into the future thanpreviously predicted, because the acidifying ocean will dissolve more calcium carbonate from the shells ofmarine organisms, which acts as a buffer against acidification. But this buffer can only help to a certainpoint, and eventually the ocean won't be able to take up any more carbon dioxide."It can't just keep taking it up," said Joan Kleypas of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, who was not involved in the study.The model results, detailed in a recent issue of the journal Tellus, project that 8 to 10 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted into theatmosphere will remain there for thousands of years, causing levels of the greenhouse gas to equilibrate inthe atmosphere at twice their pre-industrial levels."It won't go back to original levels," Kleypas told LiveScience.

Even if we burn only a quarter of the Earth's total reserves of fossil fuels (currently we have burned less than one tenth of reserves), the carbon dioxideremaining in the atmosphere could cause the next ice age to be skipped because ice sheets and glaciers willhave melted and won't be able to reform substantially, Tyrrell found.In fact, burning up all of Earth's reserves would prevent the next five ice ages, the model shows, he said."Our research shows why atmospheric CO2 will not return to pre-industrial levels after we stop burning fossil fuels," Tyrrell said. "It shows that if we use upall known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them. The result would be the same if we burned them at present ratesor at more moderate rates; we would still get the same eventual ice-age-prevention result."

CONTINUED USE OF FOSSIL FUELS KEY TO STAVING OFF THE ICE AGE

WESTERN MAIL 2001 [April 03, lexis/ttate]

Earth needs much more global warming, not less, to prevent a new ice age, say Cardiff University's Professor ChandraWickramasinghe and his associate Sir Fred Hoyle .. Joint research suggests current climate conditions - an Earth warming up andcausing more flooding and storms - are actually the exception rather than the rule.For 90pc of the past 50 million years Earth has actually been locked in an ice age with vast areas ofpermanent ice and snow.The academics, in a new paper for the Astrophysics and Space Science journal, say this is the normal and stable state of Earth that humans escaped only temporarily because akilometrewide comet struck 10,000 years ago.Wales, like most of the UK and Europe, was at the time covered from the north down to the Brecon Beacons with ice hundreds of metres thick.Prof Wickramasinghe said the impact of the comet had enough energy to throw up large amounts of water in the high atmosphere to create a powerful greenhouse effect and a warmerclimate.Methane stored near the continental margins and on the ocean floor was unleashed and feedback circuits created to maintain the new and relatively stable greenhouse effect.

Prof Wickramasinghe said, "If there was no greenhouse effect at all the temperature would be something like30 degrees below what it is now so we would be in a permanent ice age situation."In Wales, for example, we would have at least 300 metres of ice. That was present 12,000 years ago which is quite recent in geological time scales and humans survived only on the

margins of this ice."Prof Wickramasinghe and mentor Prof Hoyle, who have been making comet-related revelations for nearly 30 years, went back to 10,000 BC for their latest research."It was to decide what caused the end of this ice age so suddenly, the change from ice age to warmth in a matter of decades, " said Prof Wickramasinghe."That switch has been a puzzle for a long time and such a sharp change of temperatures could only have been caused by the one-kilometre comet hitting Earth and releasing the energy tovaporise oceans."The fear is all this reversing because of comet dust clogging Earth's upper atmosphere.Prof Wickramasinghe said, "There is always a screen of particles in the upper atmosphere and if it thickens ten-fold then the sunlight would be reflected back to space causing a rapidcooling of the earth.

"So the greenhouse effect is something that actually keeps us going. It's a minor evil compared with what weare talking about in an ice age.""Regrettable as such effects would be, the much more serious threat is the return to ice age conditions.Perhaps we should step up rather than decrease our greenhouse gas emissions."

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CONTINUED CO2 EMISSIONS NECESSARY TO CHECK OFF OVERDUE ICE AGE

MARSH 2008 [George, retired physicist @ Argonne National Laboratory and former consultant to

the Dept of Defense, The Coming of a New Ice Age,http://www.winningreen.com/site/epage/59549_621.htm / ttateFive hundred million years ago, carbon dioxide concentrations were over 13 times current levels; and notuntil about 20 million years ago did carbon dioxide levels dropped to a little less than twice what they aretoday.It is possible that moderately increased carbon dioxide concentrations could extend the current interglacialperiod. But we have not reached the level required yet, nor do we know the optimum level to reach.So, rather than call for arbitrary limits on carbon dioxide emissions, perhaps the best thing the UNsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climatology community in general could do is spendtheir efforts on determining the optimal range of carbon dioxide needed to extend the current interglacialperiod indefinitely.

NASA has predicted that the solar cycle peaking in 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and shouldcause a very significant cooling of Earths climate. Will this be the trigger that initiates a new Ice Age?We ought to carefully consider this possibility before we wipe out our current prosperity by spending trillionsof dollars to combat a perceived global warming threat that may well prove to be only a will-o-the-wisp.

CONTINUED CO2 EMISSIONS NECESSARY TO BLOCK AN ICE AGE FOR THOUSANDS OF

YEARS

ECOFRIEND.ORG 2007 [Carbon emissions might prevent the next ice age, August 23,http://www.ecofriend.org/entry/carbon-emissions-might-prevent-the-next-ice-age/ sui]What happens when you drink a lot in the evening? The answer is obvious! You have a hangover in the morning.

Similar is the case with our environment, once the oceans and the atmosphere drink a lot of CO2 emitted byus, it too will go in a hangover that will not last a day or two but hundreds of thousands of years. This hangovermight cause enough warming to delay the next ice age by thousands of years.Researchers have estimated carbon dioxide as having a lifetime in the atmosphere between 5 and 200 years before it is ultimately absorbed by the oceans. Thedetailed specs show an even grave picture of the planet, researchers are estimating that one-tenth of the CO2 we are emitting now will keep on lingering in theatmosphere for at least 100,000 years and even much longer than that.We all estimate that the unique power of Earth to heal itself might sort out things for us. However, the stats dont show this. As the atmosphere keeps onaccumulating more and more CO2, the more amount is absorbed by the oceans that makes them more acidic. This increase in the acidity levels of water dissolvesmore calcium carbonate from the shells of marine organisms. This in turn reduces the oceans ability to absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere leaving more of thisgreenhouse gas lurking in the air.

This increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases will result in the onset of global warming that will ultimatelydelay or even prevent the next ice age that usually occurs every 100,000 years. Changes in the orbit of our planetmake it shift away from the sun, which decreases the amount of sunlight and the heat entering ouratmosphere. This triggers a global cooling effect resulting in the growth of ice caps. For some reasons that are still notclear, this global cooling causes the ocean to draw more CO2 from the atmosphere. Starved of this greenhousegas the atmospheres temperature plunges until the planet is covered in ice.For now the amount of CO2 in our atmosphere rests at 380 ppm, up from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm. An analysis shows that these levels could reach 900

ppm by the end of the century. CO2 levels above 560 ppm would most certainly be enough to prevent the global cooling that now triggers an ice age. Even levels of400 ppm might make this process less likely.This all might look good as the planet might be deprived of its next ice age, but future consequences of this can be devastating. Researchers are estimating that

even if nature absorbs all the CO2 from the planet, then also it will postpone the next ice age by half a million years, that is fournormal ice ages might never happen.

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MILANKOVITCH THEORY TRUE

RECENT RESEARCH ON SEAFLOOR SEDIMENT PROVES SOLAR CYCLES THEORY

CORRECTPELLERIN, THOMPSON, AND GOLDSTEIN 2003 [Are ice age cycles of the NorthernHemisphere driven by processes in the Southern Hemisphere?, BNET,http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_gx5204/is_2003/ai_n19124300 / Chinikamwala]Despite gaps in knowledge, many hypotheses exist about what causes an ice age to begin or end. Some focuson the Northern Hemisphere as the connection between orbital variations and climate. In the 1930s, forexample, the Serbian geophysicist Milutin Milankovitch suggested that orbital variations in solar radiation at60N drove the waxing and waning of ice sheets in North America and Europe. In 1912, Milankovitch haddescribed the small but regular changes in the shape of Earths orbit and the direction of its axis, a processnow called the Milankovitch cycle. A confluence of these factors maximum eccentricity (when Earths orbitis most elliptical), extreme axial tilt (with the North Pole pointed most acutely away from the Sun), and

precession, which delays and reduces solar radiation at high northern latitudes could lead to a major ice agein the Northern Hemisphere.A recent study of Antarctic seafloor sediment cores by an international team of scientists shows that changesin polar regions particularly the advance and retreat of glaciers follow variations in Earths orbit, tilt, andprecession as described in the Milankovitch cycle. The samples showed that Antarctic glaciers advanced andretreated at regular intervals during a 400,000-year period, and the glaciation and retreat cycle matched thosepredicted by Milankovitch, with increased glaciation at 100,000-and 40,000-year intervals.

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ICE AGE IMPACTS

ICE AGE UNIMAGINED CATASTROPHES AND MASS DEATHCHAPMAN 2008 [Phil, Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh, THE AUSTRALIAN, April 23,

lexis/ttate]It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do ifwe are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850. There is no doubtthat the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anythingwarming may do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperateagricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, butglobal cooling will decrease it.Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture tocompensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases.There is also another possibility, remote but much more serious. The Greenland and Antarctic ice cores andother evidence show that for the past several million years, severe glaciation has almost always afflicted our

planet.The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions, most of North America and Europe are buried under about1.5km of ice. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials, typicallylasting less than 10,000 years.The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000years ago, so the ice is overdue. We also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline inglobal temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years.The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand,it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for20 years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027.By then, most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the

world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining.Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees. Once theglaciation starts, it will last 1000 centuries, an incomprehensible stretch of time.

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ICE AGE IMPACTS EXTINCTION

ICE AGE EXTINCTIONCARUBA 2008 [Alan, YEARBOOK OF EXPERTS, February 19/ttate]

On February 7, Investors Business Daily had an editorial titled "The Sun Also Sets" in which it cited theviews of Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council. Inessence, Tapping wants people to know that solar activity such as sunspots, i.e., magnetic storms, "has beendisturbingly quiet."

It's useful to know that global temperatures and events closely reflect solar cycles.

The lack of activity "could signal the beginning of what is known as the Maunder Minimum." While solarcycles tend to last about 11 years, the lack of normal or increased activity can trigger the Maunder Minimum,an event that occurs every few centuries, can last as long as a century, and causes a colder earth.

The most recent such event was the mini-Ice Age that climatologists date from around 1300 to 1850. In themidst of this there was a distinct solar hibernation from around 1650 to 1715.

"Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and if the sun remains quiet foranother year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massivesnowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere."

If these events continue and become a cycle of cooling, it represents a major threat to the Earth's populationbecause it means that food crops will fail and, with them, the means to feed livestock, and the rest of us.

ICE AGE EXTINCTION WE SHOULD NOT BE WORRIED ABOUT WARMINGCARUBA 2008 [Alan, YEARBOOK OF EXPERTS, February 19/ttate]At the very moment the Earth is on the cusp of what is likely to be a very long cooling and possibly a fullscale repeat of the last Ice Age, all the engines of government, nationally and internationally, are trying toinhibit the discovery, extraction, and use of energy reserves that will be needed to cope with climate changesthat will impact millions and, ultimately, billions of people.

All the ethanol, wind turbines, and solar panels in the world will not keep you warm when a short or longterm cooling of the Earth occurs. Ironically, as the Greens worry about so-called endangered polar bears inthe Arctic, the bears are far more likely to survive than humans.

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ICE AGE IMPACTS SUPERVOLCANOES

AND, SUPER VOLCANOES

A. ICE AGE SUPER VOLCANOESBRENNAN 2005 [Phil, veteran journalist for Newsmax, January 25,www.newsmax.com / ttate]"The transition period between interglacial periods and glaciation is not a smooth one history showsit to be violent beyond imagination. And it may be just around the corner. If the unchallenged results of the work ofGenevieve Woillard and others who studied past ice ages are any indication of the pace of glaciation, once it starts, the transition periodis a mere 20 years or so. And we may be well into that 20-year period now. Woillard estimated that the period before that final 20 years when the earth began gearing up for an end to the interglacial period could be as long as 150 years and as short as 75 years."

According to Woillard's studies and those of other paleological climate researchers, the transition between interglacial and glacialperiods is one of increasing violence more volcanic eruptions, storms, earthquakes and other naturaldisasters.

Allow me to digress. In considering what lay behind the earthquake that triggered the killer tsunami, we should note that the size and weight of theAntarctic ice pack has grown substantially in recent years. What's that got to do with the quake?

Just this, as I wrote in 1997: "As Peter Tomkins and Christopher Bird explained in their book, Secretof the Soil: "... ice and snow, accumulating at the poles, presses down on the planet, causing it tobulge at the seams like a balloon. This triggers the pre-stressed earthquake faults into slipping. Henceearthquakes. It also causes volcanism potentially more dangerous by squeezing magma andcausing eruptions. The colder it gets and the more snow presses down on the Poles, the more magmais compressed and volcanoes act up."

B. SUPERVOLCANOES EXTINCTIONBBC NEWS 2000 [Super Volcanoes, February 03,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes.shtml /ttate]Hidden deep beneath the Earth's surface lie one of the most destructive and yet least-understoodnatural phenomena in the world - supervolcanoes. Only a handful exist in the world but when oneerupts it will be unlike any volcano we have ever witnessed. The explosion will be heard around theworld. The sky will darken, black rain will fall, and the Earth will be plunged into the equivalent of anuclear winter.

The last supervolcano to erupt was Toba 74,000 years ago in Sumatra. Ten thousand times bigger than Mt St Helens, it created a global catastrophedramatically affecting life on Earth. Scientists know that another one is due - they just don't know when... or where.

It is little known that lying underneath one of America's areas of outstanding natural beauty - Yellowstone Park - is one of the largest supervolcanoes inthe world. Scientists have revealed that it has been on a regular eruption cycle of 600,000 years. The last eruption was 640,000 years ago... so the next isoverdue.

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ICE AGE IMPACTS SUPERVOLCANOES

SUPERVOLCANOES EXTINCTIONLIVESCIENCE NEWS 2005 [Super volcano will challenge civilization, geologists warn, March

08, http://www.livescience.com/environment/050308_super_volcano.html //ttate]Super-eruptions are up to hundreds of times larger than these," said Stephen Self of the United Kingdom's(U.K.) Open University.

"An area the size of North America can be devastated, and pronounced deterioration of global climate wouldbe expected for a few years following the eruption," Self said. "They could result in the devastation of worldagriculture, severe disruption of food supplies, and mass starvation. These effects could be sufficiently severeto threaten the fabric of civilization."

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ICE AGE IMPACTS WAR

ICE AGE GLOBAL WARSCHAPMAN 2008 [Phil, geophysicist and astronautical engineer, Letter to Jerry Pournelle, PhD,http://globalwarming-arclein.blogspot.com/2008/03/arctic-heat-dump-phil-chapman-pournelle.html,

accessed 6-30-08 / ttate]However, the four major organizations that track the global average temperature have now released theirresults for 2007. They are the Hadley Centre in the UK (Hadley), the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., inSanta Rosa, CA, (RSS) and the Christy group at the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH). The first three have been alarmed about GW for years, while the

UAH group (which uses satellite MSU measurements) has tended to be skeptical. All four of these studies report an astonishing drop inglobal temperature during 2007, between 0.59 and 0.75 degrees C. You can see graphs of their data athttp://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/ .This is by far the fastest change in global temperature on record. It is probably just a blip but if the climate stabilizes at this level, it will have wiped out all the

increase since 1920, and the whole GW thing will have gone away. Moreover, if 2008 shows another decrease of this magnitude, we will have toconsider seriously the possibility that the 20-year transition to the next Ice Age has begun.To paraphrase Eugene O'Neill, The Ice Age Cometh? If this is true, the consequences are appalling. Most of North America and allof Europe north of the Alps will be under a mile of ice by 2030. This means that most of the advanced

countries except Australia will cease to exist. There can be little doubt that the need to survive will trump anyinternational norms of behavior: I would expect that Europe would invade Africa and the US would invadeMexico, accepting genocide of the indigenous populations as an unfortunate necessity, given the absoluteneed for lebensraum.

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ICE AGE IMPACTS SPECIES LOSS

AN ICE AGE SPECIES LOSS WARMING DOES NOTBUDYKO, ET AL 1998 [M.I. researcher @ State Hydrological Insitute in USSR, Natural ClimaticCatastrophes, GLOBAL CLIMATIC CATASTROPHES /ttate]

The heating of the atmosphere as cause of animal extinction also seems highly improbable, because of theselective character of the extinction. Vertebrates, including many groups that had no thermoregulation,disappeared, whereas warm-blooded animals (mammals and birds) did not suffer. This indicates the,extinction of animals at the end of the Cretaceous to have been induced by a short-term cooling.

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ICE AGE IMPACTS - FAMINE

ICE AGE NO RAINFALLSTANLEY 1996 [Steven, prof of paleobiology @ Johns Hopkins Univ and former Guggenheim Fellow,

Chapter Four: When Winters Bgin. CHILDREN OF THE ICE AGE/ttate]One of the most profound environmental effects of the Ice Age has been a reduction of rainfall in manyregions of the world. In fact, during glacial maxima broad areas of Africa have become drier than they aretoday. During these arid intervals dunes that at present are defunct and stabilized by vegetation have becomeactive in a zone that extends about three hundred miles south of the present Sahara. As dunes are wont to dounder the influence of desert winds, they have migrated. The same pattern is evident south of the equator,where ancient sands of a previously expanded Kalahari Desert now lie buried beneath grassy savannas.Although most of these ancient dune deposits remain to be dated, they obviously represent glacial maxima.

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2NC FRONTLINE NO NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT SHUTDOWN

FIRST, NO SHUTDOWN NEW RESEARCH SHOWS CURRENT IS MUCH MORE STABLE

THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT EVEN IPCC VOTES NEG

NEW YORK TIMES 2007 [May 15,http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/15/science/earth/15cold.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1 / Chinikamwala]All that has now been removed from the forecast. Not only is northern Europe warming, but every major climate model produced by scientists worldwide in recent

years has also shown that the warming will almost certainly continue.The concern had previously been that we were close to a threshold where the Atlantic circulation systemwould stop, said Susan Solomon, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We now believe we are muchfarther from that threshold, thanks to improved modeling and ocean measurements. The Gulf Stream and theNorth Atlantic Current are more stable than previously thought.After consulting 23 climate models, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in February it was veryunlikely that the crucial flow of warm water to Europe would stall in this century. The panel did say that the gradualmelting of the Greenland ice sheet along with increased precipitation in the far north were likely to weaken the North Atlantic Current by 25 percent through 2100.

But the panel added that any cooling effect in Europe would be overwhelmed by a general warming of the

atmosphere, a warming that the panel said was under way as a result of rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases.The bottom line is that the atmosphere is warming up so much that a slowdown of the North AtlanticCurrent will never be able to cool Europe, said Helge Drange, a professor at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center inBergen, Norway.

AND, PREVIOUS CHANGES IN CURRENT SALINITY DUE TO NATURAL CYCLES ANY

EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AFF CITES HAS BEEN DISPROVEN

RITTER, staff writer, 2007 [NORTH COUNTY TIMES, June 15,http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/06/16/science/14_46_146_15_07.txt], ChinikamwalaResearchers also are reconsidering the commonly held view that a drop in north Atlantic salinity was caused by melting Arctic sea ice.

The salt level hasstarted recovering since 2000 and scientists now say the fluctuations reflect a natural cycle."We now realize that the observed decline in ocean salinity that occurred from 1965-2000 had more to do with thewind patterns and storm tracks than with global warming," said Ruth Curry, an oceanographer at the Woods Hole OceanographicInstitution in Massachusetts.

Nevertheless, climate change is expected to play a bigger role in the next cycle of freshening expected around 2020, because the Greenland ice cap is melting faster,Curry said.

"Will it slow the ocean conveyor? It's possible," said Curry, who is not connected to Hansen's research. "Will it cause the same sort of completealteration that we know happened 12,000 years ago? No, that's very unlikely."Even the long-established tenet that Europe owes its mild winters to the Gulf Stream is under scrutiny, most vocally by Richard Seager, a scientist at theLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in Palisades, N.Y.

He calls the Gulf Stream effect a myth, and claims the prevailing wind patterns have a much bigger role inexplaining why Europe is several degrees warmer in winter than the equivalent latitudes in North America.

"The amount of warming that the current gives -- only about 2-3 degrees over land on either side -- is really small comparedto the temperature difference between those regions, which is more like 15 to 20 centigrade in winter," he said."So no one should ever confuse that temperature difference between the two regions as being in any waycaused by the movement of heat by the Gulf Stream."

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2NC FRONTLINE NO NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT SHUTDOWN

AND, NO SLOWING NOW

TAYLOR 2007 [James M., managing editor of Environment & Climate News, Gulf stream will notshut down, SCIENCE magazine admits, HEARTLAND INSTITUTE, February 01,http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=20505/ ChinikamwalaNew data from an array of 19 measuring stations attached to buoys throughout the Atlantic Ocean show noslowing of the Gulf Stream.Scientists examining the data concluded Bryden's assertions were based on a single "snapshot" measurement of the Gulf Stream, which has always been subject towide, temporary variances.Looking at comprehensive data taken from a much larger sampling area over a much longer period of time, scientists concluded, in the words of the November 17

issue of Science magazine, "the lag reported late last yearwas a mere flicker in a system prone to natural slowdowns andspeedups."Reporting from an October conference of scientists that examined the new data, German oceanographer Martin Visbeck told Science, "more than 95 percent of the

scientists at the workshop concluded that we have not seen any significant change of the Atlantic circulation to date."Johan Jungclaus, a German scientist who models ice sheets, reported in the November 7 New Scientist, "Abrupt climate change initiated by the

ice sheet melting is not a realistic scenario for the 21st century."Climate Realists IgnoredClimate realists have long argued that alarmist predictions of a demise of the Gulf Stream were scientifically unsubstantiated.Robert Bradley, president of the Institute for Energy Research, pointed out the speculative nature of such claims in the September 2000 issue of Environment &Climate News. "Climate-oceanic interactions are clearly a complicated subject that the science community is still trying to understand," reported Bradley.Other climate realists were even more critical, though news stories rarely reported the possibility they might be correct.

Benny Peiser, a research scientist at John Moores University in Liverpool, England, pointed out in December 2005 that the GulfStream shutdown theory was a "silly ice age scare" that was "swallowed hook, line, and sinker" by mediaallies of global warming alarmists."Cooling prophecies are simply not corroborated by some of the most advanced climate research," noted Peiser ina letter to Nature. "At best, they are speculative and as such should be handled with extreme caution. What is more, the conjectures you are promoting flyin the face of all previous long-term climate predictions on which UK government policies have been based for years.""We can only hope the news media report the scientific refutation of this scare scenario as vigorously as they reported its initial postulation," said Bradley in aninterview for this article. "Such a forthright scientific refutation makes it very hard for the environmental activist groups to continue trotting out this scare scenario.

"We can add this debunked alarmist scare to a plethora of other debunked environmental scares, such as thepopulation bomb, global cooling, and resource exhaustion," Bradley added. "This is certainly an embarrassment to Al Gore, whopresented this as one of the potential global warming catastrophes in his recent propaganda film."

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24/41


NAC ANS - #1 THEORY WRONG

Global warming wont lead to ice age incorrect models

WEAVER AND HILLAIRE- MARCEL 2004 [Andrew prof @ School of Earth and Ocean Sciences

@ University of Victoria and C. researcher @ GEOTOP @ Univ. de Quebec a Montreal, Global warmingand the next ice age, SCIENCE, April 16,http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/304/5669/400 /Chinikamwala]It is certainly true that if the AMO were to become inactive, substantial short-term cooling would result inwestern Europe, especially during the winter. However, it is important to emphasize that not a single coupledmodel assessed by the 2001 IPCC Working Group I on Climate Change Science (4) predicted a collapse inthe AMO during the 21st century. Even in those models where the AMO was found to weaken during the21st century, there would still be warming over Europe due to the radiative forcing associated with increasedlevels of greenhouse gases.Models that eventually lead to a collapse of the AMO under global warming conditions typically fall into twocategories: (i) flux-adjusted coupled general circulation models, and (ii) intermediate-complexity models

with zonally averaged ocean components. Both suites of models are known to be more sensitive tofreshwater perturbations. In the first class of models, a small perturbation away from the present climateleads to large systematic errors in the salinity fields (as large flux adjustments are applied) that then build upto cause dramatic AMO transitions. In the second class of models, the convection and sinking of watermasses are coupled (there is no horizontal structure). In contrast, newer non-flux-adjusted models find amore stable AMO under future conditions of climate change (11, 13, 14).Even the recent observations of freshening in the North Atlantic (15) (a reduction of salinity due to theaddition of freshwater) appear to be consistent with the projections of perhaps the most sophisticated non-flux-adjusted model (11). Ironically, this model suggests that such freshening is associated with an increasedAMO (16). This same model proposes that it is only Labrador Sea Water formation that is susceptible tocollapse in response to global warming.

In light of the paleoclimate record and our understanding of the contemporary climate system, it is safe tosay that global warming will not lead to the onset of a new ice age. These same records suggest that it ishighly unlikely that global warming will lead to a widespread collapse of the AMO--despite the appealingpossibility raised in two recent studies (18, 19)--although it is possible that deep convection in the LabradorSea will cease. Such an event would have much more minor consequences on the climate downstream overEurope.

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25/41


NAC ANS - #1 THEORY WRONG

WARMING CANNOT CAUSE ICE AGESTHE NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENT IS NOT A KEY

REGULATOR

MARSH 2008 [George, retired physicist @ Argonne National Laboratory and former consultant tothe Dept of Defense, The Coming of a New Ice Age,http://www.winningreen.com/site/epage/59549_621.htm / ttateThere has been much speculation in both the scientific and popular literature that increased warming as aconsequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions could lead to an increased flow of fresh water intothe north Atlantic that would shut down the thermohaline circulation, known alternately as the meridionaloverturning circulation or the Atlantic heat conveyor [21]. This in turn it is argued, could initiate a new iceage in Europe. There are two major misconceptions behind such speculation: First, the Gulf Stream is notresponsible for the transport of most of the heat that gives Europe its mild climate [22]; and while the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation does appear to play an important role in the dramatic drop intemperature due to Heinrich and Dansgaard- Oeschger events [23], such shutdowns can only occur during

an ice age. Indeed, Broecker [24], who first linked the thermohaline circulation to the ice ages, nowdiscounts the fear that a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation could trigger an ice age. He has pointedout that for that scenario to work feedback amplification from extensive sea ice is required [25]. Thepossibility that global warming could trigger an ice age through shutdown of the thermohaline circulationmay therefore be discounted.

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27/41

SDI 2008 KMGlobal Warming Good - Ice Age

GLOBAL WARMING ICE AGE 2ACAND, WARMING WONT STAVE OFF THE NEXT ICE AGE

WORLD NET DAILY 2007 [Study finds CO2 didnt end ice age, September 29,http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=57895 / ttate]A new peer-reviewed scientific study counters a major premise of global warming theory, concluding carbondioxide did not end the last ice age. The study, led by University of Southern California geologist Lowell Stott, concluded deep-seatemperatures rose 1,300 years before the rise in atmospheric CO2, which would rule out the greenhouse gas as themain agent of the meltdown."There has been this continual reference to the correspondence between CO2 and climate change as reflected in iccore records as justification for the role of CO2 in climate change," said Stott. "You can no longer argue that CO2 alone caused theend of the ice ages."Another new study published in Science refutes the "Hockey Stick" temperature graph, used by man-made global warming theorists such asformer Vice President Al Gore to argue for a recent spike in average global temperature after centuries of relative stability. Stott's new study suggests the rise in greenhousegas likely was a result of warming. It may have accelerated the meltdown, he says, but was not its main cause.

AND, PREFER OUR EVIDENCE BASED ON RELIABLE AGGREGATE DATA OVER THE NEGS

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

REVKIN, environment reporter, 2008 [Andrew C., Skeptics on human climate impact seize on cold spell,NEW YORK TIMES, March 02, lexis/ttate]The world has seen some extraordinary winter conditions in both hemispheres over the past year: snow in Johannesburg lastJune and in Baghdad in January, Arctic sea ice returning with a vengeance after a record retreat last summer, paralyzing blizzards in China, and a sharp drop in the globes average temperature. Itno wonder that some scientists, opinion writers, political operatives and other people who challenge warnings about dangerous human-caused global warming have jumped on this as a teachablemoment. Earths Fever Breaks: Global COOLING Currently Under Way, read a blog post and news release on Wednesday from Marc Morano, the communications director for the Republica

minority on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. So what is happening? According to a host of climate experts, including some wquestion the extent and risks of global warming,it is mostly good old-fashioned weather, along with a cold kick from the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is in its La Nphase for a few more months, a year after it was in the opposite warm El Nio pattern. If anything else is afoot like some cooling related to sunspot cycles or slow shifts in ocean andatmospheric patterns that can influence temperatures an array of scientists who have staked out differing positions on the overall threat from global warming agree thatthere is no wayto pinpoint whether such a new force is at work. Many scientists also say that the cool spell in no way undermines theenormous body of evidence pointing to a warming world with disrupted weather patterns, less ice and rising seas should heat-trapping greenhouse

gases from burning fossil fuels and forests continue to accumulate in the air. The current downturn is not very unusual, said Carl Mears, a scientis

at Remote Sensing Systems, a private research group in Santa Rosa, Calif.,that has been using satellite data to track global temperature andwhose findings have been held out as reliable by a variety of climate experts. He pointed to similar drops in 1988, 1991-92,and 1998, but with a long-term warming trend clear nonetheless. Temperatures are very likely to recover after the La Nia event is over, he said. Mr.Morano, in an e-mail message, was undaunted, saying turnabout is fair play: Fair is fair. Noting (not hyping) an unusually harsh global winter is merely pointing out the obvious. Dissenters of aman-made climate crisis are using the reality of this record-breaking winter to expose the silly warming alarmism that the news media and some scientists have been ceaselessly promoting for

decades. More clucking about the cold is likely over the next several days. The Heartland Institute, a public policy research group in Chicago opposed to regulatoryapproaches to environmental problems, is holding a conference in Times Square on Monday and Tuesday aimed at exploring questions about the cause and dangers of climate change. The eventwill convene an array of scientists, economists, statisticians and libertarian commentators holding a dizzying range of views on the changing climate from those who see a human influence but

think it is not dangerous, to others who say global warming is a hoax, the suns fault or beneficial. Many attendees say it is the dawn of a new paradigm. But many climate scientistsand environmental campaigners say it is the skeptics last stand. Michael E. Schlesinger, an atmospheric scientist at the University ofIllinois, Urbana-Champaign, said thatany focus on the last few months or years as evidence undermining the established theory thataccumulating greenhouse gases are making the world warmer was, at best, a waste of time and, at worst, a harmfuldistraction. Discerning a human influence on climate, he said, involves finding a signal in a noisy background. He added, The only way to do this within our noisy climate system is toaverage over a sufficient number of years that the noise is greatly diminished, thereby revealing the signal. This means thatone cannot look at any single year and know

whether what one is seeing is the signal or the noise or both the signal and the noise. The shifts in the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arc(where ice has retreated significantly in recent summers) and Antarctic (where the area of floating sea ice has grown lately) are similarly hard to attribute to particular influences. Interviews and email exchanges with half a dozen polar climate and ice experts last week produced a rough consensus: Even with the extensive refreezing of Arctic waters in the deep chill of the sunless borealwinter, the fresh-formed ice remains far thinner than the yards-thick, years-old ice that dominated the region until the 1990s. That means the odds of having vast s tretches of open water next

summer remain high, many Arctic experts said. Climate skeptics typically take a few small pieces of the puzzle to debunk global warming,and ignore the whole picture that the larger science community sees by looking at all the pieces, said Ignatius G. Rigor, a climate scientisthe Polar Science Center of the University of Washington in Seattle. He said the argument for a growing human influence on c limate laid out in last years reports from the Intergovernmental Panon Climate Change, or I.P.C.C., was supported by evidence from many fields. I will admit that we do not have a ll the pieces, Dr. Rigor said, but as the I.P.C.C. reports, the preponderance of

evidence suggests that global warming is real. As for the Arctic, he said,Yes, this years winter ice extent is higher than last years, but it is still lowethan the long-term mean. Dr. Rigor said next summers ice retreat, despite the regrowth of thin fresh-formed ice now, could still surpass last years, when nearly all of the ArcticOcean between Alaska and Siberia was open water.

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GLOBAL WARMING ICE AGE 2ACAND, INDEPENDENTLY, OCEAN WARMING AND NAC SHUTDOWN MASSIVE DIE-OFF OFPHYTOPLANKTON

SCIENCE DAILY 2005 [Atlantic Current Shutdown Could Disrupt Ocean Food Chain, May 13,http://www.sciencedaily.comreleases/2005/04/050412213152.htm / Hayes]If increased precipitation and sea surface heating from global warming disrupts the Atlantic Conveyercurrent as somscientists predict the effect on the ocean food chain in the Atlantic and other oceans could be severe, according to a new study jus

published in Nature.

In a worst case scenario, global productivity of phytoplankton could decrease by as much as 20 percent and in some areassuch as the North Atlantic, the loss could hit 50 percent. The study was conducted by Andreas Schmittner, an assistant professor in the Collegeof Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University.In his sophisticated computer model, Schmittner does not predict that the Atlantic Conveyer current, which drags warm water from the southern tropics into the NorthAtlantic and warms Europe, will be disrupted. Rather, his study is one of the first to examine what would happen to the ocean food chain if such a disruption did take place

"Phytoplankton are the basis of the entire marine food web," Schmittner said. "They ultimately affect everything fromzooplankton to the larger fish that people consume.""When the Atlantic Conveyer current works, the dead plankton sink to the bottom and are replaced at the surface with nutrient-rich water that encourages further

production," Schmittner said. "When the current is disrupted, and the mixing slows, that production also is disrupted."

The shutdown of the Atlantic Conveyercurrent isn't just idle speculation. A growing body of evidence suggests that it switched on and off 20 to 25times during the last ice age.Schmittner said scientists also have examined ice cores from Greenland and measured isotopes that show rapid temperature changes, which coincide with changes in oceanutrient concentrations measured in deep-sea sediment cores."One full oscillation of these switches took 1,500 years," Schmittner said, "but the individual transitions happened surprisingly fast. The climate went from a cold state to warm state in as little as 20 to 50 years. Surface temperatures in Greenland increased 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit and water temperatures increased 10 to 20 degrees."

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1AR WARMING ICE AGEWARMING ICE AGE WITHIN A DECADEGAGOSIAN 2003 [Dr. Robert B, pres and dir of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Abrubt climate

change: should we be worried?, Prepared for a panel @ World Economic Forum, January 27,http://www.whoi.edu/home/about/whatsnew_abruptclimate.html / ttate]Global warming could actually lead to a big chill in some parts of the world. If the atmosphere continues to warmit could soon trigger a dramatic and abrupt cooling throughout the North Atlantic region -- where, not incidentallysome 60 percent of the world's economy is based. When I say "dramatic," I mean: Average winter temperaturescould drop by 5 degrees Fahrenheit over much of the United States, and by 10 degrees in the northeastern UnitedStates and in Europe. That's enough to send mountain glaciers advancing down from the Alps. To freeze rivers anharbors and bind North Atlantic shipping lanes in ice. To disrupt the operation of ground and air transportation. Tocause energy needs to soar exponentially. To force wholesale changes in agricultural practices and fisheries. Tochange the way we feed our populations. In short, the world, and the world economy, would be drasticallydifferent. And when I say "abrupt," I mean: These changes could happen within a decade, and they could persist

for hundreds of years. You could see the changes in your lifetime, and your grandchildren's grandchildren will stilbe confronting them. And when I say "soon," I mean: In just the past year, we have seen ominous signs that wemay be headed toward a potentially dangerous threshold. If we cross it, Earth's climate could switch gears andjump very rapidly -- not gradually -- into a completely different mode of operation.

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EXTS NO ICE AGE COMING NOW

NO NATURAL ICE AGE DUE FOR 70,000 YEARS

BERGER AND LOUTRE 2002 [Andre and MF, professors @ Universite catholique de Louvain, An

exceptionally long interglacial ahead?, SCIENCE, August, lexis/ttate]When paleoclimatologists gathered in 1972 to discuss how and when the present warm period would end (1), a slide into the next glacial seemedimminent. But more recent studies point toward a different future: a long interglacial that may last another 50,000years. An interglacial is an uninterrupted warm interval during which global climate reaches at least the preindustrial level of warmth. Based on geological recordsavailable in 1972, the last two interglacials (including the Eemian, ~125,000 years ago) were believed to have lasted about 10,000 years. This is about the length of thecurrent warm interval--the Holocene--to date. Assuming a similar duration for all interglacials, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that the present-day warm epoch w

terminate relatively soon if man does not intervene" (1, p. 267). Some assumptions made 30 years ago have since been questioned. Pastinterglacials may have been longer than originally assumed (2). Some, including marine isotope stage 11 (MIS-11, 400,000 years ago), may have been warmer than at

present (3). We are also increasingly aware of the intensification of the greenhouse effect by human activities (4). But even without human perturbation,future climate may not develop as in past interglacials (5) because the forcings and mechanisms that producedthese earlier warm periods may have been quite different from today's. Most early attempts to predict future climate at the geologicaltime scale (6, 7) prolonged the cooling that started at the peak of the Holocene some 6000 years ago, predicting a cold interval in about 25,000 years and a glaciation inabout 55,000 years. These projections were based on statistical rules or simple models that did not include any CO2 forcing. They thus implicitly assumed a value equal to

the average of the last glacial-interglacial cycles [~225 parts per million by volume (ppmv) (8)]. Butsome studies disagreed with these projections. With a simple ice-sheemodel, Oerlemans and Van der Veen (9) predicted a long interglacial lasting another 50,000 years, followed by a first glacial maximum in about 65,000 years. Ledley alsostated that an ice age is unlikely to begin in the next 70,000 years (10), based on the relation between the observed raof change of ice volume and the summer solstice radiation. Other studies were more oriented toward modeling, including the possible effectsof anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the dynamics of the ice-age cycles. For example, according to Saltzman et al. (11) an increase in atmospheric CO2, if maintained over long period of time, could trigger the climatic system into a stable regime with small ice sheets, if any, in the Northern Hemisphere. Loutre (12) also showed that a CO2

concentration of 710 ppmv, returning to a present-day value within 5000 years, could lead to a collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a few thousand years. On ageological time scale, climate cycles are believed to be driven by changes in insolation (solar radiation received at the top of theatmosphere) as a result ofvariations in Earth's orbit around the Sun. Over the next 100,000 years, the amplitude of insolation variations will be small(see the figure), much smaller than during the Eemian . For example, at 65N in June, insolation will vary by less than 25 Wm-2 over the next 25,000 years, compared with110 Wm-2 between 125,000 and 115,000 years ago. From the standpoint of insolation, the Eemian can hardly be taken as an analog for the next millennia, as is oftenassumed.The small amplitude of future insolation variations is exceptional. One of the few past analogs (13) occurred at about 400,000 years before the present,overlapping part of MIS-11. Then and now, very low eccentricity values coincided with the minima of the 400,000-year eccentricity cycle. Eccentricity will reach almostzero within the next 25,000 years, damping the variations of precession considerably.

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EXTS NO ICE AGE COMING NOW

MOST STUDIES CONCLUDE NO NATURAL ICE AGE COMING FOR 10,000 YEARS

REVKIN, environment reporter, 2008 [Andrew C., Skeptics on human climate impact seize on cold spell,

NEW YORK TIMES, March 02, lexis/ttate]Despite the recent trend toward global warming, scientists have long wondered whether the Earth is nearing a newice age, an end to the 12,000-year temperate spell in which civilizations arose. Some have said such a transition isoverdue, given that each of the three temperate intervals that immediately preceded this current one lasted onlyabout 10,000 years. But now, in an eagerly awaited study, a group of climate and ice experts say they have newevidence that Earth is not even halfway through the current warm era . The evidence comes from the oldest layersof Antarctic ice ever sampled. Some scientists earlier proposed similar hypotheses, basing them on theconfiguration of Earth's orbit, which seems to set the metronome that ice ages dance to. Temperature patternsdeciphered in sea sediments in recent years backed the theory. But experts say the new ice data are by far thestrongest corroborating evidence, revealing many similarities between today's atmospheric and temperaturepatterns and those of a warm interval, with a duration of 28,000 years, that reached its peak 430,000 years ago. Th

findings are described Thursday in the journal Nature in a report by the European Project for Ice Coring inAntarctica. The evidence comes from a shaft of ice extracted over five grueling years from Antarctica's deep-frozen innards, composed of thousands of ice layers formed as each year's snowfall was compressed over time. Thdeepest ice retrieved so far comes from 10,000 feet deep and dates back 740,000 years. The relative abundance ofcertain forms of hydrogen in the ice reflects past air temperatures. Many ice cores have been cut from variousglaciers and ice sheets around the world, but until now none have gone back beyond 420,000 years. "It's veryexciting to see ice that fell as snow three-quarters of a million years ago," said Dr. Eric Wolff, an author of thepaper and ice core expert with the British Antarctic Survey.

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EXTS GLOBAL WARMING ICE AGEWARMING ICE AGEABC NEWS 2007 [New northern ice age could send refugees to Australia,

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/05/2052408.htm /ttate]ANU paleoclimatologist Timothy Barrows and his fellow researchers used a new dating technique that measures the radioactielements in some rocks. Dr Barrows explains that Europe is at risk of a new ice age as a result of global warming. "There aresome fears that warming in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly around the Greenland ice sheet, might cause quite a bit ofmeltwater to come into the North Atlantic Ocean," he said. "That might change the salinity of the water there andstop what's called 'the great conveyor belt of the oceans' forming deep water that releases an enormous amount of heatthat keeps Europe out of an ice age, essentially. "So if global warming does stop this circulation from occurring,then we could potentially have a new ice age in Europe." Dr Barrows says this effect is similar to what happenedabout 12,900 years ago, when the earth experienced rapid cooling. "There was a collapse of an ice sheet over North America, which slowed this circulation down, and caused amini ice age for 1,500 years in Europe," he said. He saysa new ice age in the Northern Hemisphere is not far off. "You'd begin to feel theeffects almost immediately and certainly within a century," he said.

WARMING ICE AGE WEAKENS THE GULF STREAMTHE GUARDIAN 2003 [Will global warming trigger a new ice age?, November 13, lexis/ttate]Is this really true, orcould the rapidly accelerating warming that we are experiencing actually hasten the onset of a new ice age? Agrowing body of evidence suggests that, at least for the UK and western Europe, there is a serious risk of this happening - and soon.The problem lies with the ocean current known as the Gulf Stream, which bathes the UK and north-west Europe in warmwater carried northwards from the Caribbean.It is the Gulf Stream, and associated currents, that a llow strawberries to thrive along the Norwegian coast, while atcomparable latitudes in Greenland glaciers wind their way right down to sea level. The same currents permit palms to flourish in Cornwall and the Hebrides, whereas across the ocean in Labradoreven temperate vegetation struggles to survive. Without the Gulf Stream, temperatures in the UK and north-west Europe would be five degrees centigrade or so cooler, with bitter winters at least fierce as those of the so-called Little Ice Age in the 17th to 19th centuries.The Gulf Stream is part of a more complex system of currents known by a number of different names, of which the rather c

kmt warming good - ice age

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