klci value drivers 2012
TRANSCRIPT
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KLCI – VALUE DRIVERS FOR 2012
TA SECURITIES - CPE 28 APRIL 2012
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W E L C O M E
THIS TRAINING
IS SC-SIDC APPROVED AND CARRIES 10 CPE POINTS
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About me
KEY AREAS OF CONSULTATION:LEADERSHIP – STRATEGY – FINANCE
CPE Training for Stock Market Professionals
Corporate Finance - Securities Commission of Malaysia
Curriculum on Investment Banking – BNM – FSTEP Malaysia
Investment Advisory Report – preparation of templates and schedules for several corporations including national bodies and agencies
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LEARNING OUTCOMES
By attending this training session, participants will be able to: Identify the key value drivers that could
impact the value of listed securities Distinguish between the impact footprint of
global factors and local factors Apply valuation models to compute intrinsic
value of specific counters Demonstrate an ability to recognize market
cycles and determine whether price change is due to intrinsic or cyclical factors
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OVERVIEW OF VALUE DRIVERS
ASSETS
EARNINGS
CASH FLOWS
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SESSION ONE
The Assets – Profits – Cash Flow – Corporate Governance grid
Asset Accumulation Capitalized excess earnings Capitalized Economic Income Impact of Corporate Exercise (e.g. TOM activity)
Impact of global factors
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ASSETSPROFITS
CASH FLOWSCORPORATE GOVERNANCE
FAIR MARKET VALUE OF ASSETS Useful for property based counters
Also companies that have hived off REITS NTA not very useful anymore
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Earnings Based Value - The PER Trend
CompanyMkt Price
PEMkt Price
PE Company PE change20th May 2011
23rd April 2012
Maybank
8.87 16.4 8.85 25.7 Maybank 56.7 %
CIMB
8.28 16.9 9.89 16.2 Sime (78.6) %
Pchem
6.99 - 7.55 13.9 CIMB (17.8) %
Sime
9.14 75.6 6.56 19.9 Pchem xxx %
PB Bank 13.08 15.0
13.74 13.8 PB Bank (8.0) %
Axiata
4.95 23.6 6.10 18.1 Maxis 2.8 %
Genting 11.18 18.8
5.37 19.2 Axiata (18.6) %
Maxis
5.40 17.6 10.80 13.9 Genting (26.1) %
Tenaga
6.27 10.7 6.52 71.2 Tenaga 565.4 %
IOI Corp
5.31 16.1 5.34 15.4 IOI Corp (4.3) %
MISC
7.03 16.8 16.84 30.8 Petgas 96.2 %
KLK 22.00 23.1
3.92 24.3 DiGi 28.6 %
Petgas 11.42 15.7
24.12 16.3 KLK (29.4) %
PLUS
4.48 17.2 12.44 16.5 HL Bank (6.8) %
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Mixed bag of Changes
Company Mkt Price PE Mkt Price PE Company PE change
20th May 2011 23rd April 2012 %
GenM
3.55 15.8 3.78 15.0 GenM (5.1) %
PPB 17.28 10.9
16.70 20.2 PPB 85.3 %
RHB Cap
9.25 14.0 5.42 16.3 TM 32.5 %
AMMB
6.51 14.6 6.30 14.1 AMMB (3.4) %
HL Bank 12.04 17.7
18.88 28.6 Pet Dag 40.2 %
YTL Power
2.22 11.9 1.72 14.6 YTL (10.4) %
Pet Dag 15.48 20.4
7.43 10.8 RHB Cap (22.9) %
YTL
1.58 16.3 56.48 22.4 BAT 24.4 %
TM
4.17 12.3 55.98 28.8 Nestle %
BAT 46.00 18.0
1.79 9.8 YTL Power (17.6) %
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ACTIVITY
Compile information on selected counters
Consider the PER info on previous slides
Suggest a six month forward target PER
Compute Target Price
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Capitalized Economic Income Based on required returns
PROCESS : IDENTIFY SECTOR BETA VALUE APPLY TO SECTOR COMPONENTS MODIFY BETA FOR NON-AVERAGE
COUNTERS COMPUTE REQUIRED RETURN PROJECT REQUIRED PRICE TO ACHIEVE
REQUIRED RETURN
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ACTIVITY
Select Prices for selected counters in a sector
Match against KLCI Compute Beta Value Compute Required Returns Compute Target Price to achieve
Required Returns
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The Beta Family
Beta provides the Required Return = Rf + (Beta x Market Risk
Premium)
Intrinsic Value of a Share = Dollar Value of Returns from
this share Required % Return from
this share
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Sharpe Measure
S =
Actual Returns from Share - Rf
Std Deviation ϭ of Returns from this share
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Jensen Measure = Surplus Returns
Jensen’s α =
Actual Returns from Share - Required
Returns
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LOCAL & GLOBAL FACTORS
SESSION TWO
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http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/04/24/malaysia-prepares-for-bersih-3-0-sit-down-protest/
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IN THE NEWS
Banking: No intention to review lending guidelines. BNM has no intention to review its new guidelines on responsible lending for the time being, said the governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz. BNM's recent lending guidelines effective Jan 1, stipulate that loans would only be approved based on net and not gross income as practice previously. The new guidelines are aimed at managing household debt in Malaysia at reasonable levels. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
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MIER
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Consumer Index
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OUTSIDE MALAYSIA
U.S: Sales of new homes exceeded estimates in March. Houses sold at a 328,000 annual rate, down from an upwardly revised 353,000 pace in February that was the highest in two years, according to Commerce Department data. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Home prices in 20 cities fell at slower pace in February, pointing to stabilization in the real-estate market. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values fell 3.5% YoY, the smallest 12-month drop since February 2011. The index climbed from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis for the first time since April of last year. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Consumer confidence in April little changed as outlook cools. The Conference Board's confidence index was at 69.2 compared to a revised 69.5 in the prior month, figures from the New York-based private research group showed. (Source: Bloomberg)
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More from Bloomberg
U.K: Budget deficit unexpectedly widened in March, intensifying pressure on Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne to keep squeezing spending as austerity strains governments across Europe. Net borrowing excluding support for banks was GBP 18.2b (USD 29.4b), up from GBP 18b a year earlier and the most since November 2010, the Office for National Statistics said. Spending rose 4.2% YoY and tax revenue climbed 1.4% YoY. (Source: Bloomberg)
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CHINA China: Net overseas financial assets declined in the
final quarter of 2011. China's holdings of overseas assets totalled USD 4.72t at the end of last year, USD 1.77t more than foreigners' ownership of Chinese assets, according to a statement on the State Administration of Foreign Exchange website. The gap was USD 1.89t as of Sept. 30. (Source: Bloomberg)
China: Leading index rose at a slower pace in March, adding to evidence growth in the world's second-biggest economy is moderating. The gauge gained 0.8% MoM from the previous month to 230.6, the New York-based Conference Board said in a statement, citing a preliminary reading. That compares with a 1% MoM rise in February that was revised up from a previously reported 0.8% MoM increase. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Others
Vietnam: Trade balance swung to a deficit in April. Vietnam recorded a deficit of USD 400m in April, compared with a revised USD 424m surplus in March, according to preliminary figures released by the General Statistics Office in Hanoi. (Source: Bloomberg)
Australia: Core consumer prices rose last quarter at the slowest pace since 1998. The so-called trimmed mean gauge of core prices advanced 0.3% QoQ from the previous quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said, the lowest rate since the third quarter of 1998. The consumer price index rose 0.1% QoQ from the previous three months, compared with 0.6% forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, (Source: Bloomberg)
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Palm Oil vs Crude
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Crude
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Steady as Steel
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Golden Dragon
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PPI – up to 0212
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5 Key Areas of Analysis
SUPPORT
MATERIALS FOR
FUNDAMENTAL
VALUATION
RATE OF PROFITS ABILITY TO SETTLE CURRENT
LIABILITIES ON TIME = LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT OF WORKING
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT OF BORROWING
LEVELS MANAGEMENT OF INVESTOR
RETURNS
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RATE OF PROFIT GENERATION
This has 3 components :
REVENUE GENERATION MARGINS RETURNS
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REVENUE GENERATION
First Level Evaluation : Total Assets Utilization = R / TA Non Current Asset Utilization= R / NCA Current Asset Utilization = R / CADetailed Evaluation : Inventory Management = R / INV AR Management = R / AR Specific Asset
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Rate of Profits: MARGINS = x / R%
COSTS OF SALES MARGIN
OPERATING COST MARGIN
OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN
NET PROFIT AFTER TAX MARGIN
INVENTORIES MARGIN
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE MARGIN
CASH RESERVES MARGIN
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Rate of Profits : RETURNS
OPERATING ROI = OP / TOA
NET ROI = NPAT / TA
SELLING EFFICIENCY = R / TA
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LIQUIDITY & WORKING CAPITAL
CASH RATIO = CCE / CL
AR RATIO = AR / CL
ADJUSTED ACID TEST = CCE + AR / CL
FINANCING MATCH = CA / CL
(Working Capital Ratio or Current Ratio)
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BORROWING MIX
FINANCING MIX (Gearing) = BORR / EQ
ASSET FINANCING (Gearing) = BORR / TA
INTEREST COVER = OP / FIN CHG
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DU PONT ANALYSIS
DuPont analysis also allows analysts to view trends in the components of ROE For example, whether or not profit margins are
improving or if financial leverage has changed We know ROE = NI / Equity Du Pont System shows that this is also
equal to ROA multiplied by the Equity Multiplier
ROE = ROI X EQUITY MULTIPLIER ROE = ROI X (ASSETS / EQUITY )
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VALUATION RATIOS
P / E = Price per share / EPS
P / CF = Price per share / Cash Flow per share
P / S = Price per share / Sales per share
P / B = Price per share / Book Value per share
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WORKSHOP SESSION
SESSION THREE
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WORKSHOP
This session will see the use of current market values of selected companies compared with their values using the techniques discussed in Session One.
The workshop activity, which may spill over to the next session, will be to explain any differences in the values and the possible forward thrust of market price for each of the selected companies.
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Completing the Discussions
SESSION FOUR
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FINAL WORDS
Price and market value sustainability Discussion / debate :
Specific companies listed on Bursa will be selected
Valuations under various models will be applied
Comparison with current market price will be made
Forward looking information will be analysed. This will be done to debate how much of the forward value thrust will be based on cyclical factors (systemic) and how much will depend on intrinsic factors.
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THANK YOU for your kind attention