klci market trend lectures @intan 2002
TRANSCRIPT
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© 27 Mar 2002, Arifin Abdul Latif, Asst. Director, IT Section, Planning Div., Dept of Agric., Malaysia Email: [email protected] | [email protected] Website: http://agrolink.moa.my/doa Personal Website: http://members.tripodasia.com.sg/arifinlatif/ArifinLatif_Consulting.htm
KLCI Megatrend~ Past, Present
& BeyondArifin Abdul Latif
ArifinLatif Consulting
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KLCI’s Megatrend (22-year cycle)
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KLCI, the Economy & the Ringgit...
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KLCI leads the Economy…
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Mkt Cap/GDP at 3.8X Level…?
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Effect of Capital Flight….
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KLCI vs USD: Inverse Trend
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RM/USD:Pre-Capital Controls
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A Big C.I.T. in Nov Proven Right…..
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KLCI as the Barometer forEconomic Health & Sickness…
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Three Buddhas…. Looking for the Confirmation for Market Reversal
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How low can KLCI slide to….650 by year-end, or lower to 550?
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650; 550 or at worst to 550?
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Too High Too Soon…. Dangerous!!
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On Necks, Black (White) Suits& Black Shoes….
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Three Buddhas…. Market Reversals in Sept 1998 and Feb 2000
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Into the Bermuda Triangle….
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Earliest Market Reversal?
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The Bermuda Triangle Entrapment….
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June-Aug-Oct 2001….Most Likely to be the Next C.I.T.?
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KLCI downtrend to 423% level before Market Reversal?
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11 Session Lows Reached…and Three Buddhas Reappearing..?
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INTER-MARKETTECHNICALANALYSIS
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Trends in Major World Bourses:DJIA-30 index
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Trends in Major World Bourses:FTSE index
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Trends in Major World Bourses:Nikkei index
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Trends in Major World Bourses:Hang Seng index
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Trends in Emerging MarketsKLComposite index
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Trends in Emerging MarketsStraits Times index
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ConcludingRemarks
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FORECAST & REALITY: KLCI’s MARKET MegaTREND
RAMALAN EKONOMI (Economic Forecasting) Kitaran bisnes: hubungkait “lead-lag”
RAMALAN ASAS (Fundamental Forecasting) Analisis fundamental: “intrinsic value” (PER)
RAMALAN TEKNIKAL (Technical Analysis)
Faktor dorongan kpd sentimen pasaran
Meramal menggunakan carta (charting)
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