kiribati climate change planning manual

Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati

Supporting Land Use Decision Making in the Republic of Kiribati

PLANNING MANUAL

KAP II: Component 1.3.2

Adaptation Handbook: CHRDP in Kiribati

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THIS MANUAL............................................................................................2DOCUMENT OUTLINE ............................................................................................................................ 2

SECTION 1: SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS ..................................................4SECTION 2: HAZARD EXTENT MAPS .................................................................9

MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.2METRES ELEVATION ................................................. 10MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.3 METRES ELEVATION................................................. 18MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.4 METRES ELEVATION................................................. 26MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.6 METRES ELEVATION................................................. 34

SECTION 3: HAZARD EXTENT VISUAL TOOLS ............................................42CONCLUSION ..........................................................................................................45

The Handbook was produced for KAP II by:

Coastal Zone Management (Australia) Pty Ltd PO BOX 436, Claremont, Perth, Australia, 6010 ph +61 (0)8 9284 6470 fax +61 (0)8 9284 6490 www.coastalmanagement.com [email protected]

Recommended Citation: Elrick, C., Kay, R. and Bond, T. (2009) Planning Manual: Supporting land use decision making in the Republic of Kiribati. Prepared for Kiribati Adaptation Project Phase II (KAP II), Government of Kiribati.


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About This Manual

ThisManual isdesignedtoprovideguidancetodecisionmakersbysummarisingthekeyoutcomesofworkconductedundertwocomponentsoftheKiribatiAdaptationProgram(KAPII)(Component1.3.2andComponent1.4.0).ConsultantsinvolvedineachofthesecomponentsoftheKAPIIworkedinunisontodevelopinformationonprojectedsealevelriseinKiribatiandthehazardextentrelativetoeachprojectedsealevelrise,including,stormtidelevels.

This information is valuable for decision makers across Government departments and should bereadily accessible for inclusion in decision‐making processes. Consequently, the objective of thisManual is to summarise the primary outcomes of thework conducted to establish projected sealevelriseinTarawaunderarangeoftimeframesandscenarios.ThisinformationshouldbeappliedtosupportdecisionsacrossthegovernmentofKiribati(GoK)thatinfluencetheuseanddevelopmentof land and its resources. For example, the information may support decision making for urbandevelopmentandthelocationanddesignofkeyinfrastructure.

Anumberofotherreportsandtoolshavebeenproducedthroughthiswork.Theseinclude:

• Coastalcalculatorhandbook;

• Coastalcalculatortool;

• Riskassessmenthandbook;and

• Adaptationplanninghandbook.

TherelationshipbetweenthisPlanningManualandotherkeyreportsproducedthroughComponent1.3.2and1.4.0areshowninFigure1.ThereportsarereferencedinthisManualandareavailableinfullfromtheKAPIIProjectManagementUnit.

Document Outline Section1providesresultsformeanlevelsofthesea,stormtidelevels(extremesealevels)fortheTarawalagoonshorelineandforstormtide+waveset‐uplevelsfortheTarawaoceanshore,forthethreeselectedI‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenariosandthreetimeframes.Thisinformationisderivedfrom the coastal calculator (as presented in Chapter 3 of the Coastal Calculator OperationalHandbook).

Section2provideshazardextentmapsthatindicatethelevelofinundationduringmeanhighwatersprings (MHWS) for the three selected I‐Kiribati climate change scenarios and three timeframes,basedontheinformationpresentedinSection1.

Section3 isanaccompanyingdataCDthatcontainsGoogleearth files.The filescanbeopened inGoogleearthand indicate theprojectedextentof inundationduringMHWSand stormevents forthe highest I‐Kiribati climate change scenario (A1FI) and four timeframes (2030, 2050, 2070 and2100).

ThoseintheGovernmentofKiribati,andthosesupportingthegovernment,canusetheinformationpresentedintheManual,toincorporatesealevelriseinundationriskintodecisionmaking.


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Figure1:Supportingdocuments


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Section 1: Sea level rise projections

Thischapterpresentstheprojectedchangeinmeanleveloftheseaandstormtidelevelsforthreedifferent climate change scenarios and timeframes. The information presented in this chapter isdrawnfromtheCoastalCalculatorOperationalHandbook.

Thedatapresentedinthischaptermaybeappliedtoenhancethemainstreamingofclimatechangeintolandanddevelopmentplanning,byenabling:

• Setting minimum ground levels or floor levels for the construction of new buildings (orrebuilding)bytheGovernment.

• Engagementwithcommunityregardingminimumground levels forbuilding (orrebuilding)ofcommunitybuildingsandinfrastructure.

Thecoastal calculatorwillneed tobeappliedusingappropriateparameters for the local reefandshorelinecharacteristics (see theCoastalCalculatorOperationalHandbook for further informationforconsiderationof:

• Differenttimeframesorclimatechangescenarios;and

• Assessmentoflocalinundationpotentialimmediatelybehindtheshorelinewherewaverun‐upandovertoppingmaybeafactor,).

Location / water level information Timeframe Location in Figure

Tidelevels(MLOS,MHWS,MHWPS)Tetibu(2012‐2036)Tibu‐toru(2036‐2060)Tibu‐mwamwanu(2060‐2074)

TopCentreBottom

Lagoonshoreline10%,2%&1%AEPstormtidelevels

Tetibu(2012‐2036)Tibu‐toru(2036‐2060)Tibu‐mwamwanu(2060‐2074)

TopCentreBottom

Tarawaoceanshore(south)10%,2%&1%AEPwaveset‐uplevels


TopCentreBottom

Tarawaoceanshore(north(east))10%,2%&1%AEPwaveset‐uplevels


TopCentreBottom

RefertotheCoastalCalculatorOperationalHandbook(Chapter3)fordetailsonthevariabilityofthelagoonandoceanshorelines,andhowthisvariabilitymayinfluenceinundationlevels.


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Tidelevels

Mean level of the sea and high tide for the present day (1980‐1999 average) and three I‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenarios(B2–green,A2–orange,A1FI‐red)andtimeframes(Tetibu–top,Tibu‐toru–middle,Tibu‐mwamwanu–bottom).


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Tarawalagoonshoreline:Extremewaterlevels(stormside)

10%,2%and1%AEPstormtidelevelsforthepresentday(1980‐1999average)andthreeI‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenarios(B2–green,A2–orange,A1FI‐red)andtimeframes(Tetibu–top,Tibu‐toru–middle,Tibu‐mwamwanu–bottom).


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Tarawaoceanshore(south):Extremewaterlevels(stormtide+waveset‐up)

Extreme sea levels (comprising tide, storm surge and wave set‐up) corresponding to the wave /water levelconditionswitha10%,2%and1%chanceofoccurring inanyoneyearforthepresentdayandthreeI‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenariosandtimeframes.


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Tarawaoceanshore(north(east)):Extremewaterlevels(stormtide+waveset‐up)

Extreme sea levels (comprising tide, storm surge and wave set‐up) corresponding to the wave /water levelconditionswitha10%,2%and1%chanceofoccurring inanyoneyearforthepresentdayandthreeI‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenariosandtimeframes.


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Section 2: Hazard Extent Maps

Themapspresented in this chapterpresentpotential inundationextentsduringmeanhighwatersprings(MHWS)forthethreeselectedI‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenariosandthreetimeframes.

The informationpresented in this chaptermaybeapplied toclimateproof landanddevelopmentplanning,by:

• Establishingtheextentofexistingbuilding inundationriskandhowthismaychange inthefuture.

• Enabling the assessment of areas at potential risk from inundation (in terms of frequentevents,e.g.hightides)andhowthesemaychange.

For further information on the process by which these outputs were developed: see the RiskAssessmentHandbookandtheAdaptationHandbook.

To view the projected inundation extents during storm events, refer to the data CD available inChapter3.

ThreescenariosforclimatechangehavebeenselectedforuseinreviewingpotentialclimatechangehazardsinKiribati.Theseare:

• IPCCB2–lowclimatechangescenario

• IPCCA2–mediumclimatechangescenario

• IPCCA1FI–highclimatechangescenario

The scenarios represent different projections for climate change. Importantly, no scenario by theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)ismorelikelytooccurthananother.However,itis importanttonotethattheglobal‐meansea levelrise iscurrentlytracking(from1990–2005) inaccordancewiththehighestIPCCclimatechangescenario,A1FI.

Foreachmappresentedinthischapter,theheightoflandlikelytobeaffectedbyaclimatechangescenario is noted. The affected land is shaded in blue. In some maps, there is no blue shading,indicating that the area will not be affected under the selected climate change scenario. Areasshaded in blue indicate an area of low‐lying land thatmay become permanently swampy as sealevels,andconsequentlythewatertable,rise.Infrastructureandservicessituatedintheseareaswilllikely require increased maintenance, and certain areas of land may potentially becomeuninhabitable.Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposedtocontaminants,astheboundariesbetweenthefreshwaterinterfaceandhumanactivitydecrease.

ImportantNote:

Allmaps contain data generated from the 1998 TarawaMapping Project. Themapping datawasextracted from1:8,000photographytoproduce1metrecontoursaccurateto0.5mvertically.Thecontours used to create the maps presented in this chapter have been generated by the samecompany that completed theoriginalmappingat an intervalof 0.1m,which is significantlyhigherintervalthanwhatisrecommendedforthisscaleofphotography.Itisimportanttonotethatthesecontourswillremainaccurateto0.5mvertical.


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Maps Indicating Land Situated Below 2.2metres Elevation

Mapsinthissectionindicatelandsituatedbelow2.2m(basedonUniversityofHawaiiDatum–thesamedatumusedinthecontourmaps).Inthemaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.2misshadedinblue.Areasshaded inblue indicateanareaof low‐lying landthatmaybecomepermanentlyswampyassealevels,andconsequentlythewatertable,rise.Infrastructureandservicessituatedintheseareaswill likely require increased maintenance and certain areas of land may potentially becomeuninhabitable. Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposedtocontaminantsastheboundariesbetween the freshwater interface and human activity decrease. In some maps, there is no blueshading,indicatingthattheareawillnotbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario.

Thescenariosthataligntoinundationof2.2metresinclude:

• Scenario2030B2‐impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2030(appliesthelowscenario)

• Scenario2050B2‐impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2050(appliesthelowscenario)

• Scenario 2030 A2 ‐ impact likely experienced by the year 2030 (applies the mediumscenario)

ThelegendforeachmapisshowninFigure2.

Figure2:Maplegend

GovernmentServiceOne:Health,education,policefacilitiesGovernmentServiceTwo:Water,sewerage,electricity,TSKLcable(allmappedasseparatelines)GovernmentServiceThree:MajorTransport–airports,portsGovernmentServiceFour:Roads(mappedasseparateline)Government Service Five: Government Building, not housing – for example agriculture office, diplomaticbuilding,prison,desalinationplant.


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Figure3:Betio,2.2metres


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Figure4:BairikiandNanikaai,2.2m


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Figure5:Teaoraereke,AntenonandAntebuka,2.2m


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Figure6:Banraeba,AmboandTaborioST.2.2m


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Figure7:Tangintebu,EitaandAbarao,2.2m


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Figure8:BwangantebureandBikenibeu,2.2m


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Figure9:NawerewereandTemaiku,2.2m


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Maps Indicating Land Situated Below 2.3 metres Elevation

Maps in thissection indicate landsituatedbelow2.3m(basedonUniversityofHawaiiDatum). Inthemaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.3misshadedinblue.Areasshadedinblueindicateanareaoflow‐lying land thatmay become permanently swampy as sea levels, and consequently thewatertable, rise. Infrastructure and services situated in these areas will likely require increasedmaintenanceandcertainareasof landmaypotentiallybecomeuninhabitable. Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposed tocontaminantsas theboundariesbetween the freshwater interfaceandhumanactivitydecrease. Insomemaps, there isnoblueshading, indicatingthat theareawillnotbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario.


• Scenario2070B2 (lowscenario)– impact likelyexperiencedby theyear2070 (applies thelowscenario)

• Scenario2050A2(mediumscenariowith0.1mscaledupicesheetdischarge)–impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2050(appliesthemediumscenario)

• Scenario2030A1FI (high scenariowith0.2mscaledup ice sheetdischarge) ‐ impact likelyexperiencedbytheyear2030(appliesthehighscenario)



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Maps in thissection indicate landsituatedbelow2.4m(basedonUniversityofHawaiiDatum). Inthemaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.4misshadedinblue.Areasshadedinblueindicateanareaoflow‐lying land thatmay become permanently swampy as sea levels, and consequently thewatertable, rise. Infrastructure and services situated in these areas will likely require increasedmaintenanceandcertainareasof landmaypotentiallybecomeuninhabitable. Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposed tocontaminantsas theboundariesbetween the freshwater interfaceandhumanactivitydecrease. Insomemaps, there isnoblueshading, indicatingthattheareawillnotbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario.


• Scenario2050A1FI‐ impact likelyexperiencedby theyear2050 (applies thehigh scenariowith0.2mscaledupicesheetdischarge)

• Scenario2070A2‐impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2070(appliesthemediumscenariowith0.1mscaledupicesheetdischarge)



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Maps in thissection indicate landsituatedbelow2.6m(basedonUniversityofHawaiiDatum). Inthemaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.6misshadedinblue.Areasshadedinblueindicateanareaoflow‐lying land thatmay become permanently swampy as sea levels, and consequently thewatertable, rise. Infrastructure and services situated in these areas will likely require increasedmaintenanceandcertainareasof landmaypotentiallybecomeuninhabitable. Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposed tocontaminantsas theboundariesbetween the freshwater interfaceandhumanactivitydecrease. Insomemaps, there isnoblueshading, indicatingthattheareawillnotbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario.


• Scenario2070A1FI ‐ impact likelyexperiencedbytheyear2070(appliesthehighscenariowith0.2mscaledupicesheetdischarge)



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Section 3: Hazard Extent Visual Tools

The accompanying CD contains Google Earth files that demonstrate potential hazard extents ofinundationduetosealevelriseduring:

• Meanhighwatersprings(MHWS):2030,2050,2070and2100(A1FIscenario);and

• 1in10yearstormevent:2030,2050,2070and2100(A1FIscenario).

ThefilesindicatetheriseinmeansealevelthatisprojectedforMHWSandstormevents.However,theprojectionsof sea level risedonot includewavesetup.Theyonly indicate staticwater levelsduring MHWS and storm events. Consequently, the extent of inundation may be higher thanpresentedinthemappingfiles.

ThelevelsofinundationassociatedwitheachofthehazardextentsintheattachedCDareshowninTable1,andwereobtainedfromtheCoastalCalculator.

Table1:WaterlevelsassociatedwithriseinmeansealevelfordifferenttimeframesundertheA1FIscenario

Year Event WaterLevel(UoHdatum)2030 MHWS 2.3m Storm 2.8m2050 MHWS 2.5m Storm 2.9m2070 MHWS 2.6m Storm 3.1m2100 MHWS 2.9m Storm 3.4m

TheprojectionsarebasedontheA1FIclimatechangescenario.ThisisthemostpessimisticclimatechangescenariopresentedintheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport.However,itisimportanttonotethattheglobal‐meansealevelrise iscurrentlytracking(from1990–2005) inaccordancewiththehighestIPCCclimatechangescenario,A1FI.

The informationpresented in this chaptermaybeapplied toclimateproof landanddevelopmentplanning,by:

• Enablingtheassessmentareasatpotentialriskfrominundation(bothintermsoffrequentevents,e.g.hightides,tolessfrequentstorm‐relatedevents)andhowthesemaychange.

• Establishingtheextentofexistingbuilding inundationriskandhowthismaychangeinthefuture.


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ToviewthefilesintheattachedCD,followthesesteps:

1. SavethecontentoftheCDontoyourcomputer.

2. OpenGoogleEarth(ifyoudonothaveGoogleEarthonyourcomputer,youcandownloaditforfreefrom:http://earth.google.com/)

3. InGoogleEarth,clickon‘File’andthenselect‘Open’.

4. NavigatethetolocationwhereyousavedthecontentsoftheCDandselectthefilecalled,‘KiribatiClimateChangeInundation.kmz’1

Thisfilecontainsimagerythatindicatesthehazardextentforfourtimeframes,2030,2050,2070and2100.Toviewthehazardextent,clickinthesquareboxnexttoeachyear.YoucanviewtheextentofhazardthatisprojectedduringstormeventsandduringMeanHighWaterSprings.AnexampleoftheGoogleEarthimagerywiththehazardextentat2010(stormevents)ispresentedinFigure31.

1 This is a large file and it may take a while to load into your Google Earth program.


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Figure31:Googleearth


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Conclusion

TheinformationpresentedinthisManualisasummaryofthekeyoutcomesofworkconductedintwo components of the KAP II program (Component 1.3.2 and Component 1.4.0). It providesguidanceontheprojectedimpactofsealevelriseonSouthTarawa.Theprojectionsarepresentedaslevelsofsealevelrise(relativetotheUniversityofHawaiidatum)(Section1)andashazardextentmaps (Section 2). The hazard extent maps project rise in mean sea level and the extent ofpermanent inundation. The impacts of storms are not presented in these maps. Consequently,Googleearthvisualisationtoolsarealsoprovided(Section3),whichprovidefurtherinformationontheprojected impactof rise inmean sea level for bothpermanent inundation (MeanHighWaterSprings)andinundationthatwilloccurduringstormevents.

This information should be applied to support decisionmaking across the government of Kiribati(GoK)thatinfluencetheuseanddevelopmentoflandanditsresources.

kiribati climate change planning manual

Documents

kiribati page

government of kiribati

land use decision making

thisinfo land

metres elevation

hazard extent maps

decision makers

adaptation handbook