Kimberley LNG Precinct

• Process to anticipate and manage change– Strategic SIA of the precinct under the

Strategic Assessment Agreement– Precinct Development Scenarios

• Identification of key issues to develop mitigation and management strategies

• Are there any issues we have not captured?

Social Impact Assessment (SIA) Progress

SIA ProcessScoping - understand the project & key issues

Profiling - understand the area before change

Projection - of effects of project

Mitigation and Management

C O N S U L T A T I O N Monitoring

R E P O R T I N G

KLNG SIA Structure

Social Impact AssessmentDSD/DPI Team

Tourism Impact AssessmntKadar, Pearson and Partners (Tourism WA)

Fisheries, Pearling and Aquacult Impact Assessmnt Dr Guy Wright (Dept. Fisheries)

Aboriginal Social Impact Assessmnt (ASIA)Kimberley Land Council (KLC)

Dr Mark Fenton Social Management Plan

Social Impact Assessment - DSD/DPI TeamInter - national Peer Review Dr Nick Taylor

Key Issues1. Increase in Population • Impacts on services

• Human Services– Education: Pre-School, Primary, High, Tertiary, Training– Health: Hospital, Clinics, Doctors, Specialists, Dentists– Emergency Services; Police; AQIS– Recreational Services

• Infrastructure • Land ; Housing (affordable housing); Electricity; Water ;

Waste; Gas• Transport

2. Changes to the Sense of Place

Key Issues (continued)

3. Business Impacts• Tourism Impacts

• Addressed through Tourism Impact Assessment• Management Plan

• Fishing, Pearling and Aquaculture Impacts• Addressed through the Impact Assessment • Management Plan

• Attraction and retention of staff

Assessing Population Impacts

Four Step Process

• Assess Service Capacity

• Understand project workforce (construction & operation)

• Project workforce and employment multipliers

• Family Multipliers

• Human Services– Education: Pre-School, Primary, High, Tertiary,

Training – Health: Hospital, Clinics, Doctors, Specialists,

Dentists– Emergency Services; Police; AQIS– Recreational Services

• ‘Hard’ Services– Land ; Housing; Electricity; Water ; Waste; Gas– Transport

Population Impacts – Assess Capacity

What do we know about the project/s?

• Foundation Project– ~11 Mtpa– Precinct capacity 50 Mtpa– Precinct development over approx 35yrs – to

2050

• Scenarios

• Other LNG Projects

Similar LNG Projects

LNG Plant Name Processing Size (Mtpa)

Time Peak workforce

Actual Snøhvit (Norway) actual

4.1 2002 – 2007 (4.5 years)

1800

Darwin LNG (Wickham Point)actual

3.5 3 years (2003-6) 1200

Estimated Woodside Pluto 4.3 2007 - 2010 3000 Kimberley LNG (est)

Approx. 11 Est 4-5 years 2500 - 3500

Wickham Point Darwin (est)

10 (2x 5 mtpa trains)

3 years for each train

1600

Angola (est) 5.2 2007 – 2010 4000 - 8000 Tangguh LNG 5800

Comparative LNG Projects

Scenarios for Social Impact Assessment

• Current Precinct Development Scenarios– No Development within 20 years– Low - up to 15 Mtpa over 15 years– Medium - up to 25 Mtpa over 25 years– High – up to 50 Mtpa over 25 years

Population Projections for Broome Shire

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Population projection without development Population projection with Woodside only

Population projection for Woodisde and 2nd operator

Resident

population

Population Projection – No Kimberley LNG

KLNG Population Projection EXAMPLE

• Medium Scenario Example to illustrate Population Projection – Foundation proponent’s potential ‘rapid’

scenario (approx. 11 Mtpa)– 3500 peak construction workforce, 520

permanent workforce– Two trains every 5 years– Mid-range scenario

Workforce EXAMPLEPredicted Construction and Operational Workforce

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Total workforce with Woodside as the only operator Total workforce with additional 2nd opertaor workforce

Employment

EXAMPLE Total Construction and Operational Workforce for Foundation Proponent

Medium Scenario

Assumptions FOR EXAMPLE ONLY

• Broome Residents– 10% of the construction workforce– 50% of the operational workforce– Employment Multiplier of 2– Family Multiplier of 1.5 for construction

workforce and 2.6 for operational workforce

KLNG Medium Scenario EXAMPLEPopulation Projections for Broome Shire

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Population projection without development Population projection with Woodside only

Population projection for Woodisde and 2nd operator

Resident

population

Example Medium Scenario Population Projection

Next Steps

• Finalise Scenarios and the related population projections

• Theme Workshops e.g.• Housing• Health• Recreation• Infrastructure

• Community consultation

Questions?