keynote lecture at grand valley state university student scholars day
TRANSCRIPT
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Models of extinction from the Miocene to the last 40 years
Liliana M. Dávalos
Grand Valley State University12 April 2017
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Most important scientific discovery of the 18th century
Lightning as electricity? c. 1751
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Conservation of mass? c. 1789
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Georges Cuvier
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Mass extinction! Sepkoski 1984 Paleobiology
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65 million years ago looks fine © Karen Carr/Australian Museum
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Until you look closely © National Geographic
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The best of times Sepkoski 1984 Paleobiology
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The worst of times Ceballos et al. 2015 Sci. Adv.
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John James Audubon
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When did it start? FAO 2012 State of the World’s Forests
NOAA
International Fertilizer Industry Association
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Chauvet, 35K years ago © Stephen Alvarez/National Geographic
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Here in the New World 14.5K years ago © Velizar Simeonovski/Field Museum
Halligan et al. 2016 Sci. Adv.
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But 12.5K years ago
© Ron Blakey/Northern Arizona University © Illinois State Museum
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The mystery of the giants
• End glaciation ~11.7K years ago
• Mastodon, ground sloths, extinct around this time
• Human hunting before that date
• What or who killed these giants?
© PBS
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Mammals of the Caribbean
© Yomangani/Creative Commons © Eladio Fernandez
© Jon Flanders
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More mammals of the Caribbean!
© Ghedoghedo
Rosenberger et al. 2010 Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B © Adrian Tejedor
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Enter the bats of the Caribbean Dominican Republic 2014
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Why did so many bats go extinct? Deglaciation!
© Adrian Tejedor
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Islands of the Caribbean: The West Indies
Dávalos,& Turvey 2012 Bones, Clones, and Biomes
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Trouble is we didn’t have the dates
Soto-Centeno & Steadman 2015 Sci. Rep.
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A plan of action
• Hundreds of mammals• Dozens of islands • When did mammals
go extinct?• When did humans
arrive?
©Theodor de Bry/National Library of Medicine
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• Cooke, Dávalos et al. 2018 Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst.
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Timing is everything Cooke, Dávalos et al. 2018 Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst.
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Cooke, Dávalos et al. 2018 Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst.
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Statistical models
• Fauna and humans overlap• Extinction by
humans possible• No fauna and human
overlap• Extinction not by
humans
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How did the mammals of the Caribbean go extinct?
One size does not fit all
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Larger mammals probably hunted early on
© Ghedoghedo Wilson 1989 J Field Archaeol.
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Many extinction events recorded after arrival of Old World invasive competitors/predators
Turvey et al. 2012 Mamm. Biol.
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© Adrian Tejedor ©Pierpont Morgan Library
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Survivors are special Cooke, Dávalos et al. 2017 Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst.
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On extinction
• No single cause• Before humans
• Deglaciation• Area loss
• After humans• Hunting• Ecosystem change• Invasive species
Photo by Jon Flanders
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We are here Ceballos et al. 2015 Sci. Adv.
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Biodiversity is concentrated Fjeldså, Álvarez et al. 2005 Ambio
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Davalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. Tech.Forest loss from illegal
markets
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Answering a question for the UN The Special Session of 2016
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A matter of time
• Were illegal markets the start of deforestation?
• If not, how did deforestation begin?
Etter et al. 2008 Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr.
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Opening the frontier Denevan 1966 Geogr. Rev.
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Roads and colonization projects
Brücher 1977 Geogr. Z. Schuurman 1978 Tijdschr. Econ. Soc. Ge.
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Brazil
Bolivia
Peru
Colombia
Ecuador
Coca cultivation
Government-sponsored
before 1979
1990/1992
Projects
Coca cultivation
Percent forest
a b
Location of projects relates to carbon emissions Harris et al. 2012 Science
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Brazil
Bolivia
Peru
Colombia
Ecuador
Coca cultivation
Government-sponsored
before 1979
1990/1992
Projects
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest Probability of coca
a b c
A remarkable spatial pattern Davalos et al. 2016 Bioscience
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High
Low
Probability of coca
c
Time to model
• Measure influence of the development projects• If projects set the
stage for illicit crops• Distance from
projects should decrease probability of crops
Davalos et al. 2016 Bioscience
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The model helps us understand recent history Davalos et al. 2016 Bioscience
© UNODC
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On forest loss
• Incomplete development has consequences
• Roads transform the landscape
• Roads are needed anyhow• Protect forests
• Parks, easements
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A simple model based on fire Armenteras… Dávalos 2017 Ecol. Appl.
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Thanks!