Policy Application of science:

Environmental Quality

David Fowler

29th March 2017

• The UK had major problems of Environmental

Quality in the mid 20th century

• Most industrial cities had exceptionally poor air

quality, many of the major rivers were severely

degraded

• Substantial areas of lowland Britain were a

lichen desert, many higher plant species failed

to thrive in urban areas and common forest

trees could be grown in the S. Pennine hills

UK in Dec 1952, London smog,

4000 died (+7000 in the

following weeks)

London Smog

UK Air Quality Priorities 1952-1970

• The Clean Air act 1956 focussed on protecting human health...cleaning the cities

• Reducing coal burning in cities, especially domestic combustion

• Smoke and SO2

• Moving industry, esp power stations to the countryside and using tall stacks to disperse pollutants

Power plant moved out of cities to the countryside, output and stack heights increased (50 m to 200 m)

1960s Acid Rain in Scandinavia was clearly an issue

issueto Regional Air Quality

ACID DEPOSITION

• Observations of changes in precipitation chemistry 1950-1970 (Oden).....Acid Rain

• Stockholm UN conference 1972

• A UNECE Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP)

Do not believe all that you read in Nature

Fake News in 1977

Acid Rain

‘ This diseconomy, on a scale of $10 million at most can be countered by corrective action on a European wide basis costing at least one thousand million Dollars’

Artic Ocean

Atlantic Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Slovenia

Hungary

Slovakia

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Finland

Armenia

Sweden

Georgia

Norway

Belarus

Czech Rep. Ukraine

Denmark

Moldova

Germany

Yugoslavia

Austria

Bulgaria

Liechtenstein

Turkey

Italy

Monaco

Cyprus

Switzerland

Malta

Netherlands

Greece

Belgium

F.Y.R.ofMacedonia

Luxembourg

Albania

France

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Spain

Croatia

Portugal

IrelandUnited Kingdom

Romania

Russian Federation

Iceland

Kara SeaBarents Sea

North Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea Caspian

Sea

Aral

Sea

Canada

of America

Kyrgyzstan

Artic Ocean

Atlantic Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Slovenia

Hungary

Slovakia

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Finland

Armenia

Sweden

Georgia

Norway

Belarus

Czech Rep. Ukraine

Denmark

Moldova

Germany

Yugoslavia

Austria

Bulgaria

Liechtenstein

Turkey

Italy

Monaco

Cyprus

Switzerland

Malta

Netherlands

Greece

Belgium

F.Y.R.ofMacedonia

Luxembourg

Albania

France

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Spain

Croatia

Portugal

IrelandUnited Kingdom

Romania

Russian Federation

Iceland

Kara SeaBarents Sea

North Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea Caspian

Sea

Aral

Sea

Canada

of America

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan

The Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

49 Parties in Europe, North America and Central Asia

Air quality in London improved with time..

UN Stockholm conference 1972

• Observations of changes in precipitation chemistry 1950-1970 (Oden)

• Stockholm conference 1972

• The LRTAP Convention 1979

• Sulphur protocol 1983

• The conversion of the UK government 1987

• 1999 Gothenburg protocol

Timing the change in Policy

Air quality in London improved with time..

Black smoke and SO2

concentrations halved in 15 years….and halved again in another 15 years

Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

• The Convention was adopted in 1979

• It is a framework on which has been built eight protocols now in force

• The protocols have aimed to increase ambition in a stepwise manner

SO2 concentrations in 1970 and 1999

A reduction in SO2 concentration by two orders of magnitude

100 ugm-3in 19701-2 ugm-3in 1999

Measurements : UK Networks

National Acid gas, and Aerosol Network (AGAnet) 30 sitesAmmonia network (85 sites)Rain chemistry network (Precip-Net)

NH3 SO2NO2

N depositionHNO3N Deposition

An example of modelled hourly surface concentration of SO4in PM2.5

µg m-3

Forest 2000 and 2020 exceedances of acidity CL

European emissions of SO2, NO2 NH3 1880-2015 (UNECE)

2015 European SO2

emissions 7.3 Tg (4.3 EEC)

% of ecosystems areaexceeding critical loads for N dep (year 2000)

Critical load exceedance

for N effects on ecosystems

)

% of ecosystems areaexceeding critical loads for N dep (year 2000)

Critical load exceedance

for N effects on ecosystems

Loss in life expectancy

attributable to PM2.5

Loss in average life expectancy in months due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 (year2000)

EMEP4UK: PM2.5 Composition and Controls

Vieno et. al., ACP 2015

Effectiveness of different emission control options to reduce UK PM2.5

concentrations

Controlling ammonia sources would be the most cost effective strategy and would deliver the greatest reduction in PM2.5

• AQEG

• International Nitrogen Initiative, European Nitrogen Assessment, Our Nutrient World, global overview of nutrient assessment for UNEP/GEF, SCOPE report - drawing down N2O to protect climate and O3 layer, Cabinet Report on Volcanic Emissions …

National and International Policy Guidance

Policy development and science

• Events have been a major driver (Clean Air Act)

• Science played a major role in LRTAP and EU legislation

• Sulphur was a great success

• Nitrogen has been more difficult and we have not developed consistent strategies

• PM, ozone

• A need for more, and wider synthesis, continued monitoring, better inventories, models….

Do current policies fully utilise science ?

• Sulphur, Nitrogen, PM, ozone

• Biodiversity

• Food security and productivity V NUE

• Land use….is there a policy?

• Soil

• Water quality, flooding

Total UK reduced N deposition 2013

• No trend in wet NH4

Deposition 0ver 30

years

• No trend in total

reduced N deposition

• Small changes in

spatial deposition

NH3 Emissions & Total NHx Deposition (wet + dry + aerosols*)

*estimated as 0.05 of wet & dry from 1997 to 1999

UK NH3 Emissions and Ambient Concentrations

Emission inventory -22% over 15 years