key note - lean kanban central europe 2011 - predictability & measurement with kanban
DESCRIPTION
Which metrics do you use with Kanban? How do you plan and management large projects with Kanban? How has Kanban enabled the concept of "No Estimates" or the use of probabilistic forecasting?TRANSCRIPT
Lean Kanban
Central EuropeMunich October 2011
Predictability & Measurementwith Kanban
David J. AndersonDavid J. Anderson & [email protected]
Advanced
Kanban
Book PublishedApril 2010
A 72,000 wordintro to the topic
Available fromdjandersonassociates.com
http://www.limitedwipsociety.org
Yahoo! Groups: kanbandev
Yahoo! Groups: kanbanops
http://leankanbanuniversity.com
LinkedIn Groups: Software Kanban
Advanced
Kanban
Delivering predictability with Kanban
requires some different techniques
for different types of work such as
software maintenance and support
or
major project work
Advanced
Kanban
Service-oriented work
Advanced
Kanban
Create a regular delivery cadence
Develop a strong config management capability
Develop capability to deploy effectively
Build code with high quality
Advanced
Kanban
Lead Time Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101
106
Days
# C
Rs
MARCH
Lead Time Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Days
CR
s &
Bu
gs
APRIL
OutliersMajority of CRs range 30 -> 55
Understand capability by studying the natural philosophy of the work
Advanced
Kanban
For standard class items, offer a target lead time based on the 2nd confidence interval
Advanced
Kanban
For example, SLA of51 days with 98% on-time
(+2 sigma from mean)
Lead Time Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Days
CR
s &
Bu
gs
Advanced
Kanban
51 days will not be good enough for some feature requests, so offer a package of classes of
service
Advanced
Kanban
Package of Classes with SLAs
As soon as possible Full transparency
100% on-time providing 24 days advance notice
Up to 51 days 98% on-time guarantee
Up to 51 days 50% on-time
Advanced
Kanban
Lead time
Features Delivered
Standard Class Items
Fixed Date Items
Expedite Item
Advanced
Kanban
Allocate capacity across classes of service in order to deliver against anticipated demand
5 4 43 2 2= 20 total
Allocation
10 = 50%
...
+1 = +5%
4 = 20%
6 = 30%
InputQueue
DevReady In Prog DoneDoneIn Prog
DevelopmentAnalysis BuildReady Test
ReleaseReady
Advanced
Kanban
John Seddon has observed that allocating capacity in this fashion
“damages capacity”!
While this is theoretically possible it will almost never happen because
(a) a simple policy can be implemented to temporarily re-allocate
(b) demand is rarely zero for a given type, though Fixed Date class of service can be seasonal
(c) the tickets represent work, not workers, the workforce is flexible. Classes of service &
capacity allocation insure people can keep busy improving utilization not damaging it
Advanced
Kanban
Major Project Work
Advanced
Kanban
Requires all the same underlying data as used in service oriented
work
plus
Advanced
Kanban
Major Project with two-tiered kanban board
Advanced
Kanban
Cumulative Flow andPredictive Modeling with S-Curve
Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
020406080
100120140160180200220240
Time
Fe
atu
res
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete
Typical S-curve
Advanced
Kanban
Simulating S-Curve with a Z
Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
020406080
100120140160180200220240
Time
Fe
atu
res
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete
20%
60%
20%
Slope in middle3.5x - 5x slope
at ends 5x
Advanced
Kanban
Track actual throughput against projection
Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
020406080
100120140160180200220240
Time
Fe
atu
res
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete
Track delta between planned and actual
each day
Advanced
Kanban
Unplanned Work Report
Dark Matter
Scope Creep
Advanced
Kanban
Make a long term plan to build platform replacement
Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
020406080
100120140160180200220240
Time
Fe
atu
res
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete
Slope in middle3.5x - 5x slope
at ends 5x
Required throughput (velocity)
2006 2008
Advanced
Kanban
We need average throughput (velocity) to peak at 13 features per month over 24 months.
Advanced
Kanban
Little’s Law
ThroughputLead Time
WIP=
Target to achieve plan
From observed capability
Treat as Fixed variable
Determines staffing level
Advanced
Kanban
Changing the WIP limit without maintaining the staffing level ratio represents a change to the way of
working. It is a change to the system design. And will produce a change in the observed ‘common
cause’ capability of the system
Advanced
Kanban
Plan based on currently observed capability and current working
practices. Do not assume process improvements.
If changing WIP to reduce undesirable effects (e.g.
multitasking), get new sample data (perform a spike) to observe the
new capability
Advanced
Kanban
Little’s Law
13 / month0.25 months
WIP=
Target to achieve plan
From observed capability
Determines staffing level
ÞWIP = 3.25, round up to 4.Might be safe to
round down to 3.
Þ If current working practice is 1 unit WIP per person then 3 people are needed
Advanced
Kanban
Slightly over-allocate the intangible class of service (green) to compensate against expediting
5 4 43 2 2= 20 total
Allocation
12 = 60%
...
+1 = +5%
4 = 20%
4 = 20%
InputQueue
DevReady In Prog DoneDoneIn Prog
DevelopmentAnalysis BuildReady Test
ReleaseReady
Advanced
Kanban
Conclusions
Advanced
Kanban
For Service-oriented work, create predictability with
a regular delivery cadencea strong config management capability
capability to deploy effectivelycode with high quality
For major projects
understand peak throughput (velocity)model the s-curve on work complete
treat the avg. lead time as the fixed variableuse Little’s Law to calculate WIP limits
and staffing levels
Advanced
Kanban
About…David Anderson is a thought leader in managing effective software teams. He leads a consulting firm dedicated to improving economic performance of knowledge worker businesses – improving agility, reducing cycle times, improving productivity and efficiency in technology development.
He has 25+ years experience in the software industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative agile methods. He developed MSF for CMMI Process Improvement for Microsoft. He is a co-author of the SEI Technical Note, CMMI and Agile: Why not embrace both!
David’s book, Agile Management for Software Engineering – Applying the Theory of Constraints for Business Results, introduced many ideas from Lean and Theory of Constraints into software engineering.
David was a founder of the Lean Software & Systems Consortium, a not for profit dedicated to promoting better standards of professionalism and effectiveness in software engineering. Email… [email protected]