key commodity report - sshermanassociates.com reports 201… · corn soybean soy meal soybean oil...

h 632.20 603.75 630.06 650.35 4.71% -2.79%

h 1218.6 1187.8 1202.7 1392.2 2.59% -12.47%

h 322.28 312.53 314.87 376.32 3.12% -14.36%

h 0.5154 0.5067 0.5142 0.5687 1.72% -9.37%

Rough Rice h 14.64 14.54 15.11 15.03 0.69% -2.65%

h 639.05 603.50 627.00 840.40 5.89% -23.96%

i 1.487 1.520 1.541 1.645 -2.17% -9.58%

i 1.506 1.550 1.561 1.674 -2.84% -10.01%

h 17.09 17.08 17.12 13.52 0.08% 26.42%

i 1.558 1.580 1.592 2.100 -1.39% -25.81%

h 1.257 1.233 1.230 1.059 2.02% 18.69%

i 2.090 2.212 2.198 2.150 -5.52% -2.79%

h 0.5890 0.5775 0.5730 0.5100 1.99% 15.49%

n 1.19 1.19 1.15 1.20 0.00% -1.25%

h 0.9075 0.9050 0.9030 0.8500 0.28% 6.76%

h 55.20 54.50 54.52 58.80 1.28% -6.12%

h 108.40 108.00 108.08 86.60 0.37% 25.17%

i 99.38 100.04 100.10 87.27 -0.66% 13.87%

h 302.90 302.83 307.00 264.40 0.02% 14.56%

i 384.80 385.40 382.08 343.00 -0.16% 12.19%

i 338.90 339.10 334.38 311.00 -0.06% 8.97%

i 2.018 2.406 2.655 4.437 -16.13% -54.52%

h 1.2807 1.2744 0.0000 1.3653 0.49% -6.20%

*British Pound h 1.5406 1.5393 1.5520 1.5880 0.08% -2.98%

i 1.0144 1.0199 1.0171 0.9969 -0.54% 1.76%

i 6.315 6.324 6.315 6.582 -0.14% -4.06%

i 0.925 0.944 0.941 0.946 -1.97% -2.21%

h 34.25 34.21 36.41 38.16 0.12% -10.25%

i 2.1735 2.2540 1.5125 2.3060 -3.57% -5.75%

* Used as the indexing unit of measure for this exchange rate

January 30, 2012

1/23/2012 This

Week

Last

Week YTD Avg Last Year

vs. Last

Week

Commodity Activity - Weekly Average

Pork Bellies

Butter AA

vs. Last

Year1/16/2012

CME Group

Corn

Soybean

Soy Meal

Soybean Oil

Wheat

Cheddar Barrel

Cheddar Block

Milk Class III

Source: CME Group

USDA Weekly Prices

Live Cattle

Course Ground Beef

Live Hog

Market Commentary

*Euro

Canadian Dollar

Chinese Yuan

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

NYBOT Futures

Sugar 16

Coffee

Source: Intercontinental Exchange

Swiss Frank

Federal Reserve

Chicken Whole (GA Dock)

Crude Corn Oil

On Highway Gasoline

Natural Gas

Source: New York Mercantile Exchange

Crude Oil

Crude Peanut Oil

Source: USDA

NYMEX Futures & Retail

Heating Oil No.2 Spot

On Highway Diesel

Key Commodity Report Weekly

Commodity Information: Commodity information found in this sheet is publically available. It can be found from numerous sources, all of which are noted. This report is for informational purposes only. Please do not make hedging or buying decisions based on this report. Please note that rounding can affect the percent of change values.

1.92

1.925

1.93

1.935

1.94

1.945

1.95

Paul's U.S. Currency Index

$0.2800

$0.3800

$0.4800

$0.5800

$0.6800

$35.00

$55.00

$75.00

$95.00

$115.00

$135.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

Soybean Oil & Crude Oil Relationship

Crude Soybean Oil

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

$120.00


Crude Oil - Average Weekly Price - NYMEX

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

650

660

This WeekLast Week YTD Avg Last Year

Corn

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

ThisWeek

LastWeek

YTD Avg Last Year

Cheddar Block

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

ThisWeek

LastWeek

YTD Avg Last Year

Coffee

Commentary: The markets rallied last week and data would suggest that it was speculators jumping in and buying. It also appears that the AG markets are oversold suggesting a decline next week. The markets are still very much range locked, but we may move toward the low side of that range for the coming week. The rally for last week had nothing to do with demand. Demand from China was down, and the USDA report about calf/cattle supply was the lowest since 1952. Bad news for the price of beef and demand for soybean meal. Feed prices and drought in Texas and Oklahoma have contributed to the lower cattle numbers, in fact it is the fifth consecutive annual contraction of the feeder cattle in the U.S. This is very important fact for soybean meal and soybean oil spread. Usually meal is processed for feed and the oil is a byproduct of that production. When demand is upside down and we crush beans to get the oil versus the meal, crush margins are affected negatively and storage for meal becomes and issue. It usually sends basis levels higher for soybean oil too. The U.S. dollar lost a lot of ground last week and is at its lowest point so far for the year suggesting higher prices. Also weather is still very hot and dry in South America. Rains that have materialized are not what was expected, and many areas of the growing region are expecting a poor harvest. Corn futures closed between $6.20 and $6.41-3/4 per bushel, ending the week at $6.41-3/4. Soybean futures closed between $12.17-1/2 and $12.22-3/4 per bushel, ending the week at $12.19. Soybean meal futures closed between $321.00 and $323.60 per short ton, ending the week at $322.20. Soybean oil futures closed between $0.5135 and $0.5194 per pound, ending the week at $0.5159. Wheat futures closed between $6.19-3/4 and $6.53-1/2 per bushel, ending the week at $6.47-1/4.

Corn - CBOT Weekly Futures Price

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Corn - CBOT Average Weekly Price - Dollars / Bushel

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

2

Soybeans - CBOT Weekly Average Price - Dollars / Bushel

800.00

900.00

1,000.00

1,100.00

1,200.00

1,300.00

1,400.00

1,500.00

1,600.00

1,700.00

1,800.00D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Soybeans - CBOT Average Weekly Price Dollars / Bushel

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

3

Soybean Meal - CBOT Weekly Average Price - Dollars / US Ton

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Soybean Meal - CBOT Average Weekly Price Dollars / U.S. (short ton)

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

4

Soybean Oil - CBOT Weekly Average Price - Cents / Pound

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Soybean Oil - CBOT Average Weekly Price - Cents / Pound

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

5

Rough Rice - CBOT Weekly Average Price - Dollars / CWT

9.00

11.00

13.00

15.00

17.00

19.00

21.00

23.00

25.00D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Rough Rice - CBOT Weekly Average Price - Dollars / CWT

2011 2010 2009 2008 Average

6

Wheat - CBOT Weekly Average Price - Dollars / Bushel

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1,000.00

1,100.00

1,200.00

1,300.00

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Wheat - CBOT Average Weekly Price - Dollars / Bushel

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

7

Coffee - (KC) NYBOT Average Weekly Price - Dollars per Pound

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

Ap

ril

Jun

e

July

July

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Coffee - (KC) NYBOT Average Weekly Price Dollars / Pound

2011 2010 2009 2008 Average

8

Barrel Cheddar - CME Average Weekly Price / Pound

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Barrel Cheddar - CME Average Weekly Dollars per Pound

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

9

40 LB Block Cheddar - CME Average Weekly Price / Pound

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Block Cheddar 40 #- CME Average Weekly Dollars per Pound

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

10

Milk Class III - CME Average Weekly Price CWT

9.00

11.00

13.00

15.00

17.00

19.00

21.00D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Milk Class III- CME Average Weekly Price cwt

2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 4-Yr-Avg*

11

Butter AA - CME Average Weekly Price lb

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Butter AA- CME Average Weekly Price lb

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

12

Live Cattle - Average Weekly Price USDA - 6 State Average

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Live Cattle - Average Weekly Price

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

13

USDA Coarse ground 81% Steer & Heifer Source

1.15

1.35

1.55

1.75

1.95

2.15D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

USDA Coarse ground 81% Steer & Heifer Source

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

14

USDA Live Hogs - Average Weekly Price

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Live Hogs - Average Weekly Price

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

15

USDA Bellies, Skin-On, Trimmed 14-16#

0.45

0.65

0.85

1.05

1.25

1.45

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

USDA Bellies, Skin-On, Trimmed 14-16#

2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 4-Yr-Avg*

16

Georgia Dock Chicken - Final Weekly Price

0.75

0.77

0.79

0.81

0.83

0.85

0.87

0.89D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Georgia Dock Chicken Whole Bird - Final Weekly Price

2012 2011 2010 2009

17

USDA Weekly Price - Crude Corn Oil

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

USDA Illinois Weekly Price - Crude Corn Oil

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

18

USDA Weekly Price - Crude Peanut Oil

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

USDA Weekly Price - Crude Peanut Oil

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

19


35

55

75

95

115

135

155D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber


2010 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

20

$30.00

$50.00

$70.00

$90.00

$110.00

$130.00



21

Heating Oil - Average Weekly Spot Price - NY Harbour

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Heating Oil - Average Weekly Spot Price - NY Harbour

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

22

Diesel - Average Weekly Highway Price

180.00

230.00

280.00

330.00

380.00

430.00

480.00D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Diesel - Average Weekly Highway Price

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

23

Gasoline Unleaded - Average Weekly Highway Price

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Gasoline - Average Weekly Highway Price

2012 2010 2009 2008 4-Yr-Avg* 2011

24

Natural Gas Futures - New York Mercantile Exchange

2.80

4.80

6.80

8.80

10.80

12.80D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Natural Gas Futures - New York Mercantile Exchange

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

25

Sugar #16 - New York Board of Trade (ICE)

18.00

23.00

28.00

33.00

38.00

43.00

48.00D

ece

mb

er

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Sugar #16 - New York Board of Trade (ICE)

2011 2010 2009 2008

26

$-

$100.00

$200.00

$300.00

$400.00

$500.00

$600.00

$700.00

$800.00

$900.00

$35.00

$55.00

$75.00

$95.00

$115.00

$135.00


Corn & Crude Relationship

Crude Corn

$0.2800

$0.3300

$0.3800

$0.4300

$0.4800

$0.5300

$0.5800

$0.6300

$0.6800

$0.7300

$35.00

$55.00

$75.00

$95.00

$115.00

$135.00


Soybean Oil & Crude Oil Relationship

Crude Soybean Oil

Foreign Exchange Rate - Euro, EMU Members

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Foreign Exchange Rate - Euro, EMU Members Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

29

Foreign Exchange Rate - Canadian Dollar

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Foreign Exchange Rate - Canadian Dollar Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

30

Foreign Exchange Rate - Chinese Yuan

6.00

6.20

6.40

6.60

6.80

7.00

7.20

7.40

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Foreign Exchange Rate - Chinese Yuan Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2012 2011 2010 2009 4-Yr-Avg*

31

Foreign Exchange Rate

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

De

cem

ber

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Thailand - Baht Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2012 2011 2010 2008

32


5.3

5.5

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.9

Jan

uar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Nowegian Krone Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2012 2011 2010

33


460

480

500

520

540

560

580

600

Jan

uar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Chile Peso Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2012 2011 2010

34


17000

17500

18000

18500

19000

19500

20000

20500

21000

Jan

uar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Vietnam Dong Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2012 2011 2010

35


44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

Jan

uar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

India Rupee Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2012 2011 2010

36


2.7

2.75

2.8

2.85

2.9

2.95

3

3.05

3.1

Jan

uar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Peruvian New Sol Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2012 2011 2010

37

Consumer Price Index - Monthly

200.0

205.0

210.0

215.0

220.0

225.0Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

Consumer Price Index - Monthly Bureau of Labor and Statistics

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Average

38

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Electricity

Fuel Oil

Bread White

Ground Beef

Chicken

Eggs

Milk

Electricity Fuel Oil Bread White Ground Beef Chicken Eggs Milk

DEC 11 vs. DEC 10 0.025328244 0.182900094 0.024531025 0.113574352 0.046875 0.045175683 0.074442435

YTD 0.02093795 0.276464221 0.051941748 0.096400402 0.022298456 0.066177947 0.096082042

Consumer Price Index- Growth Percentage Bureau of Labor & Standards

DEC 11 vs. DEC 10 YTD

Producer Price Index - Monthly

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

Producer Price Index - Monthly Bureau of Labor and Statistics

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007

40

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Flour

Corn Sweetners

Dairy

Shortening & Cooking Oil

Bakery

Beef

Pork

Chicken

Turkey

Meat

Bottled Beer

FlourCorn

Sweetners

Dairy

Shortening &

CookingOil

Bakery Beef Pork Chicken Turkey MeatBottled

Beer

DEC 11 vs. DEC 10 -0.0042250.10946590.11627910.16334360.04848480.1525157 0.07 0.05728430.09490580.1181760.0353982

YTD 0.00657280.11369650.12308560.15989260.04727270.16116350.11333330.08203680.11235170.11881820.0328698

PPI Commodities - Growth Percentage Bureau of Labor & Standards

DEC 11 vs. DEC 10 YTD

key commodity report - sshermanassociates.com reports 201… · corn soybean soy meal soybean oil...

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