kernobsttag netto-markendiscount pipfruit - outlook season 2012/13 helwig schwartau, ami

Kernobsttag Netto-MarkendiscountKernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount

Pipfruit - Outlook season 2012/13

Helwig Schwartau, AMI


EU-27: First time, more apples in the East, less in the West

2012 = One of the lowest production of the last years, but…

Distribution of regions not comparable with 2007 and 2010

EU-15 with very small production, particular in the South

NMS expected 3,87 Mio t, only more ‘08 (4,5 Mio. t)

Relaxed autumn, changeing trading flow, less table apples than 2007 and 2010

(1.000 t)


EU-27: Apple harvest for freshmarket

The lowest volumen for freshmarket of the last years???

More second qualities for storage?

Volume with hail damage?

Effect of price level for processing

A very high price level


Sale prices P.O. South Tyrol, Galatable apples, class I 70-75mm


Western Europe : Production bicolour apples

Braeburn: Relaxed season France/Italy = 147.000 t (-28%)

Gala: -13% than 2011 Hold up market share in North Africa/ Middle East?

Jonagold: All countries with lower crop. Concentrated sales in Western Europe, no stress till february

Elstar: Netherland -33% than last year. Less exports to Germany.


EU apple exports to North Africa and Middle East (Aug. till April)

France

Italy

Spain

1.000 tons


Poland: Apple exports (Aug.- April)

In 1.000 t ‘08/09 ‘09/10 ‘10/11 ‘11/12

Total 714 611 348 655

EU-27 Extra 502 503 310 590

EU-27 Intra 212 108 38 65

Russia 230 231 196 356

Ukraine 225 220 63 92

Kazakhstan 7 19 13 22

Belarus 32 27 34 116

Baltic 106 29 18 18

S. East Europ 61 41 8 26

EU-15 46 38 12 21

UK 3 5 2 4

Scandinavia 17 16 7 9

Germany 16 14 4 10

Good season 2011/12

Strong investment (75% subvention)

Bigger apple harvest in the future (above 3 Mio. t ?)

Planting trends (20% Idared) targeted to the east markets


Russia: apples imports 2011/12 by month (Competition Poland/ GUS/ EU15)


Processing apples


Germany – consumption apple juice (GfK)

Mio. litre


EU-27: Apple harvest for processing

AJC stocks cleared! Price on a relativ high level

In Western Europe less crop the smallest crop of the last years

German - outside market production 100.000 t lower than last year

Poland bigger crop, more hail, shap processing increasing 10% than 2011?

EUR/100kg

?


Europe: Price development for AJCsince February 2007

2007 2012


Processing apple price development


Apples – Global trading


Import markets for apples in the world, trading South Hemisphere, till July(1.000 tons) 2012 (red graphic column), 2011 and 2010

EuropeRussia

Asia

North Am.

Africa/Mid.EastLat. America

Worldwide


EU-27: Imports overseas apples (till July) Chile: Worldwide exports 606.000 t, 75.000 t less s than year

New Zealand: More exports to Asia (+10%), UK the same, EU Continent decrease (-25%)

South Africa: The same volume, but 7.000 t more to UK, less to continent

Argentina: Worldwide the smallest volumes of the last years

Brazil: More export than 2011, particular UK

Source: AMI

1.000 t


New Zealand: Apple export to Asia increase, till July (1.000 t)

1.000 t 2007 2009 2011 2012

Asia 38 51 69 79

EU cont. 108 109 99 73

UK 54 41 38 39

America 37 38 28 30

M. East 5 10 9 13

Total 246 254 256 246

2012 - Export by varieties

Constant worldwide export volume, but….

Strong focus to AsiaEU – only UK stable, but…Middle East more interesting

*31*20

*21

*34

*41

(* Last year)


South Africa – Exports per marktet segment (%)

2011

Average price (Rand/ t)


Chile: Worldwide apple export (1.000 t)

Europe/Russia

North A.

AsiaM. East

Latin A.

Global export 2012 = 606.000 t2011 = 682.000 t 2010 = 661.000 t 2009 = 573.000 t


Destination 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 main market

Total exports 700 808 780 789 Asia 329 (‘08 = 172)

Asia East 88 95 110 131 Taiw. 68/ Hongk. 57

Asia South East 66 91 102 121 Indonesia 60

Asia South 18 48 38 77 India 72

Middle East 45 81 64 62 VAE 28/ Saudi A. 20

South America 14 19 12 29

North./Latin Am. 341 347 340 283 Mexico 168

EU 40 32 24 11

Total imports 154 151 188 138

Chile 92 87 122 86

New Zealand 32 44 41 32

USA: apples exports/ imports (1.000 t)


High price level for pears


EU 27: Pear crop in the last 10 years

In tons


Market balance for pears in EU-27

1.000 t 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12f 2012/13f

Market production 2.602 2.275 2.629 1.969

+ Import EU1) 275 309 235 330

- Export EU1) 311 345 454 300

= Consumption2) 2.566 2.239 2.410 1.999

Per capita (kg) 5,1 4,5 4,8 4,0

Note: 1) 1.7. - 30.6. - 2) Without market losses,

Source: AMI / EUROSTAT - f = forecast

Bad argent. crop with less exports to Europe.

Export 100.000 t more than last year. Increasing Russia, North Africa, Brazil.


Pears: Netherlands Veilingeprices für Conference class I, 65-75mm


Russia: Import pears (July – May)

Only slowly increasing imports, 2011/12 = 384.000 t2010/11 = 375.000 t2009/10 = 355.000 t2008/09 = 290.000 t

More exports from EU-15 at the expense of overseas

Argentina -20% pears than last two years (till May)

1.000 t

EU-27 Trend


EU pear exports to Asia, North Africa S. America and Middle East (Aug. till April)

NL/BEL

Spain

Italy

1.000 tons

France ‘11/12 total 500 t

Brazil Import Aug-Dec

Italy 1.600 t

Brazil Import Aug-Dec

Italy 1.600 t


EU-27: Imports overseas pears

2012 = 234.000 t overseas pears arrived in Europe75.000 t (-25%) less than 2011

• Chile unchanged

• South Africa changed to other markets

• Argentina less to Europe, other marktes unchanged

EU imports vs. 2011 Williams -45%, Packhams -22%, A. Fetel 8%, Forelle +1%

1.000 t


Import markets for pears in the world, trading South Hemisphere, till July(1.000 tons) 2012 (red graphic column), 2011/ 2010/2009

EuropeRussia

Asia

North Am.

Africa/Mid.EastLat. America

Worldwide


South Africa: Pear export till July (in tons)

Asia

M. East

Africa

Export Asia/Africa 2012 = 42.500 t 2011 = 36.400 t 2010 = 28.100 t2009 = 19.554 t


Thanks a lot for your attention.

HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI, BÜRO HAMBURG

[email protected]

+49 (0)40-6505595-0

kernobsttag netto-markendiscount pipfruit - outlook season 2012/13 helwig schwartau, ami

Documents