CHAPTER 3THE HISTORICAL SETTING OF

CONTEMPORARY WORLD POLITICS

Kegley 5th Edition

Long Cycle Thesis

Patterns of general world stability and great power conflict may be cyclical

Stability/peace prevails when balance among great powers is stable

Great power war emerges when major transitions of relative power or alliances disturbs balance

WWI

Quick, impulsive, reactionary decision making by leaders of Austria, Russia & Serbia

Which level of analysis?a) Individualb) Statec) System

WWI

Rising levels of ethnic nationalism in Germany, Serbia, Russia led to perceptions of “others” as different, hostile, lesser.

Compromise more difficult with mutual disdain.

Which level of analysis?a) Individualb) Statec) System

WWI

Germany’s and Russia’s economic and political might had dramatically increased.

Ottoman and Austria Hungarian empires’ economies and political clout had declined significantly

Which level of analysis?a) Individualb) Statec) System

WWI

Changing military technologies introduced new uncertainties Trains Automatic weapons Early tanks Blimps

New military theory: Karl von Clauswitz Offense is dominant Early mobilization = victory Wars likely to be short and decisive

WWI

Tight, ridged, alliancesGermany, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman EmpireFrance, Britain, Russia

Which level of analysis?a) Individualb) Statec) System

WWI Effects

Outcomes: Collapse of:Austria-Hungarian EmpireOttoman EmpireRussian Empire

Russian RevolutionGermany pared downTreaty of Versailles

WWI Effects

Germany pared downTreaty of Versailles

Punitive Peace Strict military limits Official blame Reparations

German humiliation, resentmentCreate Czechoslovakia, Poland

WWI Effects

Wilson’s 14 points League of Nations International law Territorial integrity and self-determination Democracy Free trade Disarmament

Mostly stillborn

WWI Effects

Discredited Offense Dominant Thesis Increased costs of war Promoted greater caution More reticence to react quickly or aggressively

Concern about arms races Arms limitation treaties Attempt to balance power through negotiations

WWII Origins

Proximate Cause Hitler’s aggressive nationalism Chamberlain’s, Stalin’s choices to placate, or

“appease” German demands

Which Level of analysis?A. IndividualB. StateC. System

WWII Origins

Weak Weimar government in Germany Little legitimacy Little success in resolving or alleviating German

resentment of WWI humiliations and losses

Hitler named prime minister of a coalition government

Reichstag building burns Emergency powers Suspends constitution

WWII Origins

Hitler’s expansion in CzechoslovakiaAbrogation of military limits in Versailles treaty Appeasement reaction of Chamberlain

“Peace in our time”

US Isolationism: Enable Hitler?Enable Japanese expansion in China?

WWII Outcome

Change to Bipolar World

United Nations

Transition from British Hegemony in trade and monetary system

Cold War

Individual leaders? Stalin, Mao, Truman, Eisenhower, de Gaulle

Ideology? Capitalist Democracy VS Socialist Authoritarianism

Containment – domino theory

Comintern – communist expansionary zeal

Cold War

Geopolitical clash of interests b/t US and USSR Military Economic

Atomic / nuclear weapons???

Cold War

Was the Cold War really cold?Korean WarVietnam WarEtc…

Key Terms

appeasement A strategy of making concessions to another state in the hope that, satisfied with the concessions, it will not make additional claims.

bandwagon The tendency for weak states to seek alliance with the strongest power, regardless of that power’s ideology or form of government, in order to increase security.

bipolar An international system with two dominant power centers. Carter Doctrine A declaration to use military force to prevent outside

powers from gaining control over the Persian Gulf. containment A strategy to prevent another state from using force to

expand its sphere of influence. détente A strategy of relaxing tensions between adversaries to reduce the

possibility of war. domino theory A metaphor popular during the Cold War, which predicted

that if one state fell to communism, its neighbors would also fall in a chain reaction, like a row of falling dominoes.

Key terms

hegemon A single, overwhelmingly powerful state that exercises predominate influence over the global system.

imperial overstretch The historical tendency of hegemons to weaken themselves through costly foreign pursuits that drain their resources.

isolationism A policy of withdrawing from active participation with other actors in world affairs and instead concentrating state efforts on managing internal affairs.

linkage theory The assertion that U.S. cooperation with the Soviet Union in one policy area was contingent on acceptable Soviet conduct in other areas.

long-cycle theory A theory that focuses on the rise and fall of the leading global power as the central political process of the modern world system.

mirror images The tendency of people in competitive interaction to perceive each other similarly—to see an adversary the same way as an adversary sees them.

multipolar An international system with more than two dominant power centers. Nixon Doctrine A pledge to provide military and economic support to U.S. allies

while holding them responsible for their own security.

Key Terms

peaceful coexistence Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev’s 1956 doctrine that war between capitalist and communist states is not inevitable and that interbloc competition could be peaceful.

rapprochement In diplomacy, a policy seeking to reestablish normal relations between enemies.

Reagan Doctrine A pledge of U.S. backing for anticommunist insurgents who sought to overthrow Soviet-supported governments.

rollback A strategy that called for liberating countries that were under Soviet domination.

self-fulfilling prophecies The tendency for one’s expectations to evoke behavior that helps to make the expectations become true.

soft power The ability of a country to get what it wants in international affairs through the attractiveness of its culture, political ideals, and policies.

Truman Doctrine The declaration by President Harry S. Truman that U.S. foreign policy would use intervention to support peoples who allied with the United States against external subjugation.

unipolar An international system with one dominant power center.