kazakhstan investment conference - visor capital june 2008kmgep.kz/data/nws/eng/fil_449_272.pdf ·...
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JSC KazMunaiGas Exploration Production
Kazakhstan investment conference - Visor CapitalJune 2008
2
Important Notice
Forward-looking statements
This document includes statements that are, or may be deemed to be, ‘‘forward-looking statements’’. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of
forward-looking terminology, including, but not limited to, the terms ‘‘believes’’, ‘‘estimates’’, ‘‘anticipates’’, ‘‘expects’’, ‘‘intends’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’, or ‘‘should’’ or,
in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology, or by discussions of strategy, plans, objectives, goals, future events or intentions. These
forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. They include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the JSC KazMunaiGas Exploration
Production (“Company”) intentions, beliefs and statements of current expectations concerning, amongst other things, the Company’s results of operations, financial
condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies and as to the industries in which the Company operates. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and
uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances that may or may not occur. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance
and the actual results of the Company’s operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the country and the industries in which the Company
operates may differ materially from those described in, or suggested by, the forward-looking statements contained in this document. The Company does not intend,
and does not assume any obligation, to update or revise any forward-looking statements or industry information set out in this document, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise. The Company does not make any representation, warranty or prediction that the results anticipated by such forward-looking
statements will be achieved.
Cautionary Note to US Investors
The US SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that the company has demonstrated by actual production or
conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. The crude oil reserves of Company within this
document have been estimated by Gaffney, Cline & Associates (‘‘GCA’’) according to standards established by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (‘‘SPE’’) and the
World Petroleum Congresses (‘‘WPC’’) and thus proved reserves may differ from those estimated according to the definitions of the US SEC. Further, the Company
uses certain terms in this document in referring to the Company’s reserves, such as ‘‘probable’’ or ‘‘possible’’ reserves, that the US SEC’s guidelines would prohibit it
from including in filings with the US SEC if the Company were subject to reporting requirements under the US Exchange Act. Prospective investors should read ‘‘The
Company—Company’s Reserves’’ section in IPO prospectus and the report of GCA, an international oil and gas consultant, on the Company’s reserves, included in
this document (the ‘‘GCA Report’’), for more information on the Company’s reserves and the reserves definitions the Company uses.
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KMG EP at a glance
4
History of KMG E&P
• 1911: Beginning of production in Kazakhstan
• 2004: Creation of KMG E&P: merger of UzenMunaiGas (“UMG”) and EmbaMunaiGas (“EMG”)
• 2006: IPO and London listing of KMG E&P
• 2007: Acquisition of 50% stakes in Kazgermunai and CCEL (Karazhanbasmunai)
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KMG EP at a glance
Source: MEMRNote: KMG EP production converted using a factor of 7.36 boe per tonne., KGM -7.62, Karazhanbasmunai - 6.68, others - 7.33
Top Kazakh operating entities (mbpd, 2007)
267
240
232
192
118
115
74
71
64
40
18
134
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Tengizchevroil
KMG EP+50%KGM+ 50% KBM
KPO
KMG EP
Aktobemunaigas
Mangistaumunaigas
PKZ Kumkol
Turgai-Petroleum
Kazgermunai
Karazhanbasmunai
Kazakhoil-Actobe
Others
target 33% of 50%
target 33%
50% acquired in Q2-07
target 50%
• Upstream, onshore Kazakhstan
• 2P oil reserves– 1.8 billion bbl (R/P 25 years)
– over 2 billion bbl inclusive of interest in Kazgermunai and CCEL (Karazhanbasmunai)(1)
• Production – 192 mbpd in 2007
– 240 mbpd (proforma inclusive of interest in Kazgermunai and Karazhanbasmunai(1))
• Revenue(2) in 2007 – USD 3.97 bn
• Net income(2) in 2007 – USD 1.28 bn
• Majority shareholder – state owned NC KazMunaiGas (61% of ordinary shares)
50% acquired in Q4-07
Note:(1) KMG EP acquired a 50% stake in Kazgermunai in April 2007 and a 50% stake in CCEL (Karazhanbasmunai) in December 2007(2) Converted from Tenge at KZT/US$ 122,55
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RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
CHINA
KAZAKHSTAN
Kazgermunai 50%
Turgai basin
Pre-Caspian basin
South Mangyshlak basin
Embamunaigas
Uzenmunaigas
Karazhanbasmunai50%
KMG EP on the map
Reserves, according to SPE
Embamunaigas and Uzenmunaigas
mln.bbl mln.bbl1Р 102 752
3Р 34.4 230.0
2Р 240 1,7673Р 283 2,079
Kazgermunai (50%)*1Р 12.1 92.32Р 20.3 154.9
Karazhanbasmunai (50%)*1Р 27.2 181.92Р 32.8 219.2
Note:* The reserves are as of 31/12/2007 for Embamunaigas and Uzenmunaigas, as of 30/09/06 for Kazgermunai, as of 31/12/06 for Karazhanbasmunai
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Grow and replace reserves
Cost and asset rationalisation
Environmental improvements
Maintain production in existing fields
• Exploit the advantages of the Relationship Agreement
with NC KMG in respect of existing assets and unlicensed
blocks
• Selective acquisitions in Kazakhstan and abroad
• Continue exploration efforts on existing and new blocks
• Sustain optimal production level from the existing reserve
base over the medium term
• Continue the use of secondary and enhanced oil recovery
techniques
• Optimisation of production costs and capex over the medium
term
• Asset Optimisation Programme underway to divest non-core
subsidiaries
• Policies under implementation to meet international environmental, labour, HR and safety standards
Strategy review
Strategy Implementation
• Acquisition of 50% stakes in KGM, CCEL, potential acquisitions are under review
• Uzen Field Development Plan Review and 2P reserves growth
• Exploration on sub-salt structures
• Stable production level
• Extension of production plateau by additional 5+ years
• Operational expenses growth below inflation• Stable capex at core assets
• A number of non-core and auxiliary assets were realized via tender procedures
• New equipment for waste cleaning is procured
• Gas utilisation programme is being implemented
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Optimisation of the existing operations
Exploration program
9
• 7 fields
• 3,605 producing wells, 1,188 injection wells*
• 2P oil reserves as at 31.12.2007: 1.38 bln bbl
• Oil production for 2007: 136 mbpd
• Reserves life: 28 year
Uzenmunaigas (UMG)
Embamunaigas (EMG)
• 37 fields• 2,167 producing wells, 410 injection wells*• 2P oil reserves as at 31.12.2007: 0.39 bln bbl• Oil production for 2007: 57 mbpd• Reserves life: 18 year
Key goals:
• Sustaining optimal production level
• Cost optimisation
KMG EP: oil production, mbpd
106124 132 136 136
5556 56 57
53
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Uzenmunaigas (UMG) Embamunaigas (EMG)
159
192179
188 192
Core assets: Uzenmunaigas and Embamunaigas
* As of the end of 2006.
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Optimization of development of Uzen field
The Company’s largest field
• Accounts for 70% of total 2P reserves and 66% of production
• Producing since 1965, average water cut 80%
• Permeability varies from 10mD to 1500mD, about 60% of remaining reserves contained in low-permeability reservoirs
Production optimization program
• Updated reserve estimates and feasibility studies, using geostatic and simulation reservoir models
• New programme anticipating tighter drilling pattern and optimized water flood system
• Expected outcomes
– extended production plateau
– increased projected reserve recovery: from 42.2% to 45.9%
Field outline and anticlines
KaramandybasAnticline 39km x 9km
Source: Gaffney Cline & Associates report
East-west cross section: 25 horizons, 852m-1700m
Source: Gaffney Cline & Associates report
10
11
Embamunaigas and Uzenmunaigas: 18% increase in 2P reserves
Reserves Summary: Embamunaigas and Uzenmunaigas
AdjustmentsReservesat 31/12/2006 Production absolute %
Reservesat 31/12/2007
1P, mln.tonnes2P, mln.tonnes3P, mln.tonnes
93.1 203.2 288.0
9.53 18.5 46.34.05
20231.4
102.1 240.0282.5
1P, mln.bbls2P, mln.bbls3P, mln.bbls
685.41,494.92,118.7
70.1 136.3342.330.6
20231.4
751.61,767.12,079.2
1P reserves do not include reserves producible after the contract expiry date, which is the main reason for the significant difference between 1P and 2P reserves
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Exploration Projects
Exploration
1. R-9
2. Liman
3. Taisoigan
4. Adjacent areas of Uzen and Karamandybas fields
Additional Exploration
1. S.Nurzhanov
2. SW Kamyshitovy and SE Kamyshitovy;
3. Zhanatalap;
4. Western Prorva
NC KMG has applied for the Temir block subsoil use rights on behalf of KMG EP.
УЗЕНЬУЗЕНЬ -- КАРАМАНДЫБАСКАРАМАНДЫБАС
Subsalt exploration
2007- 2008: seismic studies, data processing and interpretation, preparation for subsalt drilling
2009: drilling of 2 wells
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13
Acquisitions
14
KMG EP: unique advantages for acquisitions in Kazakhstan
• “Article 71” (preemption right)
• Services agreement between KMG EP and NC KMG regarding on-shore assets
• Good knowledge of Kazakhstan
• Focus on shareholder value
• No obligation to acquire if a transaction terms are not attractive for shareholders
• Acquisitions are subject to approval by INEDs and (in certain cases) by minority shareholders
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Russia
Uzbekistan
KAZAKHSTAN
UA
S
BTC
Mangistaumunaigas: •Production: 5.7 mln tonnes
Block TemirUrihtau:• Gas and gas condensate
Block Sarkamys Karaton:
Kazturkmunai, 51%• 9 fields• Production: 0,25 mln tonnes
Kazakhoil Aktobe Ltd, 50%• Fields: Alibekmola, Kozhasai• Production: 0,87 mln tonnes
CPC
Caspian Sea
= field = block
CCEL (Karazhanbasmunai), 50%
Uzenmunaigas
Embamunaigas
PetroKazakhstan Inc, 33%
Kazgermunai, 50%
Selected acquisition targets
Acquisition targets
Potential acquisition targets
Oil production for the companies : Mangistaumunaigas, Kazakhoil Aktobe, Kazturkmunai for 2007
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Acquisition impact : KGM and CCEL
Reserves +21% 50% share in KGM 2P reserves – 155 mn bbl, in CCEL – 219 mn bbl(1)
Production +25% 50% share in daily production: KGM -32kbopd, CCEL – 18kbopd (2)
Net income, 2007Contribution in 2007 to KMG EP P&L of US$225.2 million less non-cash accounting adjustments of US$79.1 million+US$146 mn.
Net income, Q1-08
Dividends
KGM contribution to KMG EP P&L of US$75.6 mln.CCEL contribution to KMG EP P&L of US$5.2 mln. representing one quarter of the interest portion of the US$26.2m annual priority return, accrued as interest income.
+US$80 mn.
Dividends (KMG EP’s share) :
- US$300 million in November 2007
- US$ 75 million in March 2008US$375 mn.
1) The reserves as of 30/09/06 for Kazgermunai, as of 31/12/06 for Karazhanbasmunai2) Oil production of Kazgermunai and CCEL are indicated as a 50 % stakes owned by KMG EP from the date of acquisition.
17
Acquisitions – expected impact
Indicators (1) Stakes acquired Timing
Production: 3 mln tonnesReserves 2P: 41 mln tonnes
Completed in April 200750%Kazgermunai
Completed in December 2007Production: 1.9 mln tonnesReserves 2P: 66 mln tonnes
50%Karazhanbas
Production: 6.8 mln tonnes(2)
Reserves 2P: 75 mln tonnes2008 PetroKazakhstan 33%
Kazakhoil Aktobe 2008(3)50%Production: 0.87 mln tonnes
Kazakhturkmunai 2008(3)51%Production: 0.25 mln tonnes
Combined impact of all 5 transactions (assuming they go through, pro-forma estimate): - Production increase +55%, 2P Reserves addition +35-45%
(1) Production indicated for 2007, reserves estimates are indicated as follows: Kazgermunai as of 30/09/06, Karazhanbas as of 31/12/06, PetroKazakhstan as of 31/12/2004(2) PetroKazakhstan Inc. production includes 100% of PetroKazakhstan Kumkol Resources production, 50% share in Kazgermunai production and 50% share in Turgai Petroleum production.(3) KMG EP position in regards to these assets has not been yet defined. Preliminary analysis of of acquisition possibility is taking place
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Strategic Outlook: Growth priorities
Work in progress
• Optimisation of existing assets
• Ongoing exploration
• Acquisition of PetroKazakstan, Kazakhoil Aktobe, Kazturkmunai from NC KMG
Onshore assets in Kazakhstan
Offshore projects
• Acquisition of existing assets (direct negotiations or Article 71)• New licenses
• KMG EP is interested to participate in offshore projects• Access to offshore projects is controlled by NC KMG and the Government
International projects • Analysis of existing opportunities• Current focus: Russia and Turkmenistan
Diversification potential
• Analysis of existing opportunities in Kazakhstan
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Financial SummaryCrude oil salesTax regime
20
Financial summary
millions of US$(1) , or as indicated 2006 2007 1Q-07192 187
786(394)
-
(394)
23.4
7.8
11.5
4.0
39239213(1)
(214)51.9%
19119572
3,974(1,720)
-
1,720
24.5
9.5
11.0
4.0
2,2532,253
115142
(1,228)51%
1,2821,411
327
1Q-08Production (kbopd) (2) 192 186
1,191(409)
Environmental (fine) reversal 91 -
Share of results of associates (3) 75
Operating expenses, net of EF 1,624 (409)
24.1
8.5
11.9
3.8
782Operating profit, net of EF 1,645 782
81
(411)47.5%
52753872
Total revenue 3,269Operating expenses (1,534)
Profit for the period (net income) from continuing ops 972Cashflow from operations 969
per bbl produced, including 23.2
- Energy, materials, payroll, repairs and other services 8.5- Transportation, taxes, management fees, fines and penalties, other
11.2
- DD&A 3.5
Operating profit 1,735
Finance (expense) income (1)
Income tax (expense) (760)adjusted effective tax rate (3) 55.0%
Capex 391
(1) Convenience translation from Tenge at KZT/US$ 126.09, 122.55, 124.90, and 120.45 for , 2006, 2007, 1Q-07 and 1Q-08 respectively
(2) Production was calculated excluding 50% shares in Kazgermunai and CCEL, consolidated production is 215 kbopd and 234 for 2007, 1Q2008 respectively
(3) Pretax income adjusted for share of results of associates and fines and penalties, additionally 2006 pretax income adjusted for one-off effect of EPT change of KZT18.6 bln(~USD $148 million)
21
Exports offer better economics
US$/bbl CPC UAS Other AverageMarket quote 73.02
(CPC blend)
69.53
(Urals)
n/a n/a
Discount (transportation, quality bank
etc.)
2.41 3.78 n/a n/a
Realised price 70.61 65.75 18.93 55.93
Transportation and other expenses 6.96 6.20 0.83 5.12
Netback price 63.65 59.55 18.10 50.81
2007
US$/bbl CPC UAS Other AverageMarket quote 97.64
(CPC blend)
93.47
(Urals)
n/a n/a
Discount (transportation, quality
bank etc.)
1.04 3.25 n/a n/a
Realised price 96.59 90.23 20.67 74.94
Transportation and other expenses 8.45 7.60 0.83 6.17
Netback price 88.14 82.63 19.84 68.78
Q1 2008
22
Over 76% of production is exported
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1 2008Domestic UAS CPC
176186 187 193
24% 29% 27% 23%
55%
22%18%17%
54% 55%65%
mbopd
53%
24%
23%
174
11%
Netbacks, 2003-2007, Q1-08Sales volumes, 2003-2007, Q1-08
0102030405060708090
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1 2008
CPC UAS Domestic
US$/bbl
23
Tax summary by contract
• Excess profit tax rates driven by IRR for most contracts, currently at maximum
• Crude oil export duty at the initial rate of 109.91 US$/tonne is introduced from 17 May 2008 (applies to contracts that do not have explicit customs stability clause)
• Tax code revision is in progress. New version expected to be introduced from 1 January 2009
• Potential impact on KMG EP depends on whether tax stability for contracts signed before 01.01.2004 will be abandoned
Summary of key fiscal terms of Uzenmunaigas and Embamunaigas contracts
AreaUzen&
Karamandybas 22 fields Tengiz KenbayS.E.Novobo-gatinskoye
Contract # 40 211 413 37 61
Issue and expiry years 1996-2021 1998-2018 2000-2020 1996-2021 1997-2017
Royalty, % of taxable revenue 3.5% 3.5%-6% 2%-6% 8% 6%Corporation income tax (CIT) - % 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%Maximum excess profit tax (EPT) rate, %
30% 30% 30% 30% 50%
EPT – taxable base CIT taxable income– CIT payable
– EPT from previous year-WHT on dividends
CIT taxable income– CIT payable
CIT taxable income– CIT payable
CIT taxable income– CIT payable
CIT taxable income– CIT payable
Property tax - % of book value 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0%Road tax - % of taxable revenue 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
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New crude oil export duty in Kazakhstan
Export duty (Kazakhstan)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Oil price, $/bbl
$/bbl
Oil price (P), $/bbl
Export duty, $/bbl
P<19 0
19<P<60 (P-19)*5%
60<P<75 2,1+(P-60)*22.83%
75<P<90 5.5+(P-75)*38.21%
90<P<105 11.2+(P-90)*48.48%
105<P<120 18.5+(P-105)*55.82%
P>120 26.9+(P-120)*61.34%
Effective from 17th May 2008 at the initial rate $15/bbl ($109.91/ tonne)
25
Significant financial resources availablefor acquisitions and exploration
US$ million(1) 31 December 2006
31 December2007
492 180
3,163
(273)
3,070
2,593
(470)
2,615
31 March2008
Cash and equivalents 525
3,429
(237)
3,717
Financial assets
Borrowings
Net cash (debt), end of period
(1) Convenience translation using KZT/US$ 127.00 120.30, and120.69 for Tenge amounts as of 31 December 2006, 31 December 2007 and 31 March 2008.
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Dividends
Record dividends for 2007 (2)
KZT 563 per share (US$ 0.778 per GDR) 26.6% pay-out
15% normal dividend pay-out in accordance with the dividend policySpecial dividend (partial distribution of the initial KGM dividend)
2004 2005 2006 2007(2)
Dividend, the same per ordinary share and
preference share, KZT
74.2 382 500
0.68
30.2
30.3
563
Dividend per GDR, US$(1) 0.09 0.51 0.79
Pay-out ratio, based on net income, % 26.1 40.0 26.6
Pay-out ratio, based on operating cash flow, % 5.8 24.0 24.1
(1) Convenience translation from Tenge at KZT/US$ at 130.23, 134.91, 125.09 , 121.8 and 120.53 for 2003, 2004, 2005 , 2006 and 2007 respectively. One GDR corresponds to one sixth of ordinary share. The dividend per GDR for 2003, 2004 and 2005 are pro-forma based.
(2) Recommended by the Board of Directors, subject to shareholder approval at AGM on 28 May 2008
27
Reference information
Share informationTotal number of ordinary shares 70,220,935GDRs per one ordinary share 6
Total number of preferred shares 4,136,107
ContactsTickersLSE KMG
KASE RDGZ
Reuters KMGq.L
Bloomberg KMG LI
www.kmgep.kz
Investor relations e-mail: [email protected]
Tel +7 (7172) 975433
28
Appendix
29
KMG EP: Close relationship with National Company KazMunaiGas
Republic of Kazakhstan
• PetroKazakhstan 33%• TengizChevroil 20%• Kashagan 16.81%• KazMunaiTeniz 100%• Zhambai 50%• Kazakhoil-Aktobe 50%• Kazakhturkmunai 51%
• KazTransOil 100%• KazTransGas 100%• KazMorTransFlot 50%• CPC 19%• KCP 50%
• Trade House KMG 100%• Atyrau refinery 99.07%• Shymkent refinery 50%• KazRosGas 50%• TenizService 49%• KING (research institute)
83.9%
• UzenMG, EmbaMG• Kazgermunai 50%• Karazhanbasmunai 50%
• Formalised relationship with the parent:
- Relationship Agreement- Services Agreement
• 4 out of 8 directors represent NC KMG
Holding Samruk Other NCs100%
100%
National Company KazMunaiGas
Free floatLondon (LSE)Almaty (KASE)
39%(1) KMG EP61%(1)
Transportation Refining, marketing, servicesOther upstream
(1) Ordinary shares
30
Production and Capex for 2006 - 2008
Production, kbopd
192 192192
3222
190.87
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
2006 2007 2008(E)
KMG EP Kazgermunai, 50% (1) KBM, 50% (2)
215*
192
243
Capex, $ mln
391327
384
26
88
110
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2006 2007 2008(E)
KMG EP Kazgermunai, 50% (1) KBM, 50% (2)
353
391
582
(1) Oil production and capex of Kazgermunai for 2007 are indicated as a 50 % stake owned by KMG EP from the date of acquisition (24th April). Oil production and capex of Kazgermunai for 2008 are indicated as 50 % stake owned by KMG EP . Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
(2) 2008 KBM production and capex are indicated as 50% stake of KMG EP for the full year* The production for KGM and KBM is calculated from the date of the acquisitions: 24April07 and 12December07 respectively.