k. j. rawson - maritime system design methodology

8/12/2019 K. J. Rawson - Maritime System Design Methodology

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MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY RAWSON

MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

K. J. Rawson Ministry of Defence nite! Kin"!o#Hea! of $orwar! Desi"n S%i& De&art#ent

A'STRA(T

T%e &a&er a!!resses t%e nee! for a #et%o!o)o"y in !esi"n an! s*r+eys t%e essentia) feat*res,t%at is o- ecti+e/ creati+e/ -o*n!e! an! iterati+e. A !isci&)ine is e0&)ore! an! creati+ity wit%int%at !isci&)ine enco*ra"e!. T%e !isci&)ine re1*ires t%at t%e o- ecti+e s%o*)! !efine t%e

-o*n!aries an! constraints wit%in ei"%t arenas/ econo#ic/ socia)/ &o)itica)/ "eo"ra&%ica)/ &%ysica)/ or"ani2ationa)/ in!*stria) an! te#&ora) an! eac% is -rief)y !isc*sse!. T%e creati+eeffort is #o!e)e! so t%at it #ay -e #ani&*)ate! for t%e -est. $or#s of &%ysica) an! -e%a+iora)

#o!e)s are to*c%e! *&on. Si0 ways in w%ic% ine0actit*!e #ay -e e0&resse! are -rief)ye0&)ore!/ &ro-a-i)ity of occ*rrence/ *ti)ity of conse1*ence/ &reference !isco*nt rate/ #i)itarywort%/ cost -enefit ana)ysis an! f*22y set t%eory. $ina))y t%e +a)*e of a !esi"n #et%o!o)o"y isassesse! an! t%e &)ace of eac% of t%e a&&roac%es to !ecision #a3in" is &ro&ose!.

(ontents

Desi"n #et%o!o)o"y

4rinci&)es of !esi"n

'o*n!aries

4rocess of !esi"n

Mo!e)in"

Dea)in" wit% ine0actit*!e

5a)*e of a !esi"n #et%o!o)o"y

References

Desi"n Met%o!o)o"y

International Symposium on Advances in Marine TechnologyNorwegian Institute of Technology, June 1979, p. 25 !1


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6A syste# is a set of reso*rces or"ani2e! to ac%ie+e a state! o- ecti+e7

Li3e )i+in"/ !esi"n is a -)en! of science an! art/ of !isci&)ine an! in!isci&)ine. Si#&)e

rationa)i2ation of t%e &rocess an! &%i)oso&%y of !esi"n %as not so far -een #ar3e!)y s*ccessf*)an! yet it !oes e0%i-it a &attern s*sce&ti-)e to so#e "enera)i2ation. T%ere can -e no !o*-t t%atit is an inte))ect*a) en!ea+o*r of t%e "reatest i#&ortance for it creates wea)t% in t%e -roa!estsense of t%at wor!. It is !eser+in" t%erefore of consi!era-)e in+est#ent. T%e o- ecti+e of t%is &a&er is to s*r+ey t%e !esi"n &rocess an! its associate! !isci&)ines toassess t%eir &otentia) for *sef*) !e+e)oent in enric%in" #an3in! 8 or at )east/ #ariti#e#an3in!. T%ere %as -een ti#e to esca&e fro# t%e narcotic !etac%#ent of t%e syste#sen"ineerin" w%ic% -eca#e &o&*)ar !*rin" t%e si0ties an! to see its +irt*es wit%o*t its e0tre#es.$rosc% 9:; first !rew attention to t%e nee! to a&&)y t%e o- ecti+e a&&raisa) of syste#sen"ineerin" to t%e enforce! !isci&)ine of syste#s en"ineerin" itse)f. Not t%at syste#sen"ineerin" s%o*)! -e re"ar!e! as !esi"n/ any #ore t%an t%e e0traction of a toot% can -ere"ar!e! as t%e cessation of &ain. It is a #eans 8 one of #any 8 an! not an! en!. T%ose w%o %a+e ta*"%t s%i& !esi"n wi)) %a+e face! t%e #et%o!o)o"y !i)e##a. St*!ents w%oare ea"er to create s%i&s an! w%o %a+e waite! #any years &atient)y ac1*irin" s3i))s to a&&)y tot%is &innac)e of t%eir a#-itions/ !o not ta3e 3in!)y to t%e a-stractions 9


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&refera-)e in an o- ecti+e is an e)e#ent of s*&er)ati+e. 6'est7 or 6#ost7 in+ites a wi!enin" of%ori2on an! a searc%in" tec%ni1*e w%ic% e)a-orate t%e &rocess of !esi"n -etter to ser+eco#&etition. Ine+ita-)y t%e o- ecti+e of a &ri+ate or nationa) trans&ortation tra!in" syste# %as -een

&re!o#inant)y econo#ic/ te#&ere! -y socia) awareness an! -o*n!e! as )ater !isc*sse!. T%atof #i)itary syste#s #*st -e re)ate! to t%eir effecti+eness/ %owe+er t%at #ay -e !efine!. Ineit%er case for#*)ation of t%e o- ecti+e i! stron")y inf)*ence! -y -ot% #ar3et or #i)itaryinte))i"ence an! int*ition an! is so +ita) to t%e !esi"n &rocess t%at it nee!s t%e #ost caref*)consi!eration. S%i& !esi"n/ in &artic*)ar/ is a #anifest !e#onstration of tota) co#&any &o)icy9 ;. Wit% an e)e#ent of seren!i&ity in !esi"n/ it is a)so )i3e)y t%at t%e o- ecti+e wi)) re1*ire re@!efinition fro# ti#e to ti#e. (reati+ity is t%e *n!isci&)ine! e)e#ent of !esi"n. So#et%in" #*st -e &ro!*ce! fro# t%einte))i"ent #in! w%ic% %as ne+er -een !one -efore/ a)t%o*"% it #ay -enefit fro# &rece!ent. Ifit is 3nown to -e i!entica) to so#e &re+io*s so)*tion/ it is not !esi"n. Desi"n is an inno+ati+esynt%esis. On a conce&t*a) &)ane/ it is t%e synt%esis of f*nctions to &ro!*ce a ro)e, on a #ateria)

&)ane/ it is t%e synt%esis of #ateria) to &ro!*ce a syste#. In -ot% t%e conce&t*a) an! #ateria)

as&ects it is &ossi-)e to constr*ct &ara!i"#s re&resentin" %ierarc%ies of c%aracteristics an! of#ateria) an! in an i!ea) wor)! t%ey #atc% B$i"*re :C. T%e #o+e#ent *& an! !own eac% co)*#nan! fro# one co)*#n across to its co*nter&art re&resents t%e creati+e en!ea+o*r.

"#N"$%T &'T$(I')

ST('T$*+ ,e.g. T('-$

(#)$ ,e.g. "#N/$+ *##-S

01N"TI#N ,e.g. I)IT+

S12 01N"TI#N ,e.g. %($SS1(IS$

T('NS%#(T'TI#N S+ST$&

S3I% -$%#T %$(S#NN$)

ST$$(IN* S+ST$&S %(#%1)SI#N

%1&% IN-I"'T#(S $i"*re :

Litt)e is yet 3nown a-o*t creati+ity. 'io@fee!-ac3 is 3nown to sti#*)ate an! #ay -e &ro+i!e! -y a #ac%ine en"ineere! to e0cite t%e &ertinent -rain r%yt%#s or -y ar"*#ente*rs co))ecte!an! e0cite! in -rain stor#in" or ot%er en+iron#enta))y contri+e! sessions. O*r )earne!societies co*)! &rofit fro# t%e attentions of t%e &%ysio)o"ists an! it is in t%e !esi"n fie)! t%atresearc% co*)! -e #ost &rofita-)e.

T%e t%ir! essentia) e)e#ent of !esi"n is t%e -o*n!ary of en!ea+o*r. A &ainter sees t%e fra#eas a &rinci&a) -o*n!ary -*t wo*)! -e "rie+e! to see %is creation %*n" in a cows%e!. E+en t%issi#&)e -o*n!ary is not t%erefore &recise. $or t%e en"ineerin" !esi"ner t%e -o*n!aries oft%o*"%t #ay e0ten! into t%e econo#ic/ socia)/ e!*cationa)/ &o)itica) an! in!*stria) arenas.(%aracteristics of t%e s%i& in a trans&ortation syste# wi)) -e stron")y affecte! -y t%ese arenasan! a !esi"ner #*st 3now t%e -o*n!s of %is en!ea+o*rs fro# t%e o*tset. S*c% -o*n!s re&resentt%e constraints *&on %i#, wit%in t%e -o*n!aries/ %e %as free!o# to e0&)ore a)) t%e arenas. $ina))y/ !esi"n is iterati+e. T%ere #*st -e fee!-ac3 of t%e so)*tion to t%e o- ecti+e/ a#eas*re#ent of t%e error an! correction of t%e so)*tion in conse1*ence. T%is is one of t%e!istin"*is%in" feat*res of t%e reasonin" #in! an! is e0&resse! in #any ways 8 "*ess an! test/scientific #et%o!/ ser+o contro). T%is as&ect of t%e !esi"n !e#onstrates a f*n!a#enta)re)ations%i& -etween science an! en"ineerin". T%e )atter constit*tes an asse#-)y &rocess -yw%ic% an o- ecti+e #i"%t -e ac%ie+e! an! t%e for#er is t%e &rocess of ana)ysis -y w%ic% t%e



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creation is teste! a"ainst t%e o- ecti+e. En"ineerin" !esi"n is a synt%esis interr*&te! -y t%eana)ysis of en"ineerin" science B$i"*re

econo#ic/ &o)itica)/socia)/ Binc)*!in" &syc%o)o"ica) an! c*)t*ra)C"eo"ra&%ica)/

&%ysica)/or"anisationa)/

in!*stria) an!te#&ora).

T%e econo#ica) area is now we)) !efine! an! for#s one -asis for #ercanti)e syste#s !esi"n.It is now a re)ati+e)y strai"%tforwar! #atter to #ani&*)ate c%aracteristics of t%e trans&ortationsyste# wit% econo#ic &ara#eters in or!er to ai# at o&ti#*# so)*tions 9:


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of a s%i& -eca*se t%e #ar3e! !isinterest s%own -y #ariti#e ins*rers in i#&ro+in" t%etec%no)o"y of s%i& safety a-o+e stat*tory #ini#a !oes not enco*ra"e t%e !esi"ner to re!*cet%e ris3 of )oss. Dis-enefits or )osses e0ten! into ot%er #a or arenas. Many 'retons #*st %a+e seen t%eA#oco (a!i2 as t%e *")y face of ca&ita)is#. (o#&anies wo*)!/ %owe+er/ nee! to -e +ery farsi"%te! to s%a&e t%eir &o)icies to &re+ent or enco*ra"e t%e s&rea! of co##*nis#. Ne+ert%e)ess/a c)ear !ecision on w%et%er t%e syste# !esi"ner s%o*)! e#-race t%e &o)itica) arena an! to w%at

-o*n!/ !oes nee! to -e #a!e in !e+e)o&in" t%e o- ecti+e. Less 1*estiona-)e is t%e nee! toe#-race t%e socia) scene. Wit%in a s%i&/ t%e socia) en+iron#ent 9 ; %as to consi!er a


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-o*n!aries of t%e &ro-)e# t%e !i+erse ways in w%ic% t%e o- ecti+e #i"%t/ wit%o*t *n!*econstraints -e #et. T%is &%ase is concerne! &ri#ari)y wit% i!eas/ wit% conce&ts an! f*nction. Itis t%e &%ase of #a0i#*# creati+ity. Jones7 secon! &%ase transfor#s t%ese conce&ts into #ateria) &ro&osa)s. It synt%esi2ese)e#ents into a syste#. It #o!e)s t%e syste# so t%at it #ay -e for#e! an! refor#e!. In t%et%ir! &%ase %is #o!e) con+er"es to t%e -est so)*tion. To !eci!e w%at is/ in!ee!/ -est/ t%e #o!e)#*st -e teste! a"ainst criteria an! constraint. A co#&)ete an! "enera) #o!e) of t%e &rocess of !esi"n is s%own in $i"*re ?. T%is co#-ines K)ine an! Lifson7s e)e#ents of t%e &rocess wit% Jones7 !e&t% an! -rea!t% ofst*!y in eac% &%ase. 'y !escri-in" %is tas3 in t%is way/ t%e #ana"er of t%e w%o)e &rocess isa-)e to !is&ose %is reso*rces accor!in")y. He wo*)!/ &er%a&s/ &)ace %is %i"%)y i#a"inati+e/*n!isci&)ine! #en in t%e ear)y &%ases/ %is wi!e)y e0&erience! #en of !i+erse !isci&)ines in t%etransfor#ation &%ase an! t%e acc*rate t%eoretician in t%e !i+er"ence &%ase. He wo*)! -e in a

-etter &osition to sc%e!*)e acti+ities/ to or"anise in a #anner w%ic% faci)itates t%e f)ows/ to#a3e !ecision in a ti#e)y #anner/ to a+oi! intro!*cin" constraints -efore %e #*st/ to arran"eco##*nication too)s/ faci)ities/ stan!ar!s/ criteria. Dis&)ay of t%e f*)) &ano&)y of acti+ity ist%*s an i#&ortant way of sti#*)atin" intros&ection an! infor#e! #ana"e#ent.

$i"*re =

W%at #*st now -e e0a#ine! are t%e too)s an! #o!e)s an! +a)*e criteria t%at #i"%t -e *sef*)in a&&)yin" t%is &rocess.

Mo!e))in"

T%ree ty&es of #o!e) are s*""este! -y Marc% 9 ;/ !escri&ti+e #o!e)s/ &re!icti+e #o!e)s an!e+a)*ati+e #o!e)s. W%i)e no s*-@!i+ision of #o!e) ty&e is +ery satisfactory/ t%is one see#s to!eny t%e +ery &*r&ose of a #o!e). Any #o!e) re&resentation of rea) )ife nee!s to !escri-e an!to &re!ict so t%at it #ay -e e+a)*ate! wit% a +iew to c%an"in" it for -etter. T%ere wo*)!



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ot%erwise -e no &oint in #o!e))in" e0ce&t as a %istory. BE+en t%en/ at wit% re"ression ana)ysis/t%e &*r&ose is often to &re!ict ot%er/ si#i)ar syste#s.C A -etter !i+ision 8 -*t -y no #eans e0c)*si+e 8 is -etween &%ysica) #o!e)s an! -e%a+io*ra)#o!e)s. T%e &%ysica) #o!e)s #ay for con+enience -e s*-!i+i!e! into static an! !yna#ic. Ata-)e of so#e of t%e co##on #o!e)s in t%ese cate"ories is "i+en in $i"*re . It is necessary to !istin"*is% fo*r feat*res of a #o!e). T%ese are its &*r&ose/ its )i#itations/t%e too)s e#&)oye! to !escri-e it an! t%e criteria -y w%ic% it #ay -e *!"e! so t%at t%e effect ofa c%an"e in a +aria-)e #ay -e &re!icte!. T%e &*r&ose of any #o!e) is to re&resent so#et%in"B)i3e t%e e0a#&)es in $i"*re C wit% a +iew to e0a#inin" it critica))y.

$i"*re ?

Let *s ta3e a +ery si#&)e case/ )i3e t%e )ayo*t of t%e f*rnit*re in t%e sittin" roo#. T%e &*r&ose of t%e #o!e) is to arran"e f*rnit*re for #a0i#*# fa#i)y co#fort an! con+enience. Its)i#itations are t%at it can re&resent on)y &%ysica) &ro&osa)s/ not e#otion nor &otentia)!is-enefits )i3e i))ness/ nor +aria-i)ity of t%e e)e#ents. T%e too)s e#&)oye! for itsre&resentation an! #ani&*)ation are a sca)e !rawin" of t%e roo# wit% its fi0t*res/ o*t)inec*to*ts of t%e f*rnit*re an! nati+e wit. 5a)*e criteria are )e"ion an! !ifferent fro# eac%#e#-er of t%e fa#i)y 8 to &ossess t%e co#forta-)e c%airs/ to +iew t%e "ar!en/ to see t%ete)e+ision/ to -e *n!er a rea!in" )a#&/ to -e o*t t%e !ra*"%t/ to -e near t%e fire/ to see a neatarran"e#ent/ to a))ow free!o# of acti+ity/ to c)ean rea!i)y etc. As any fa#i)y 3nows t%e

&ro-)e# is inso)*-)e. On)y t%e sin")e +a)*e! criteria of fat%er can force a so)*tion.



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T%is e0a#&)e is sa)*tary. If so si#&)e a &ro-)e# is #anifest)y !iffic*)t to so)+e to e+eryone7ssatisfaction/ w%at %o&e is t%ere to #o!e) t%e %*"e trans&ortation syste#s w%ose -o*n!ariese#-race t%e wi)!)y !ifferent arenas !escri-e! ear)ier in t%is &a&er How/ for e0a#&)e/ can t%esocia) an! econo#ic syste#s -e tra!e! off We #*st a!!ress t%is 1*estion &resent)y. $or t%e#o#ent/ it is as we)) to -e re#in!e! t%at/ w%ere a sin")e +a)*e! criterion 8 )i3e #a0i#*#stress 8 can -e a!o&te!/ it s%o*)! -e we)co#e!. Let *s now s*r+ey so#e of t%e ot%er too)sw%ic% #ay -e a!o&te! to constr*ct #o!e)s.

$i"*re

Statica) &%ysica) #o!e)s %a+e for )on" -een #a!e -y !rawin"s/ #ens*ration/ for#*)as/ -y -*!"ets for s&ace an! wei"%t/ -y t%e &rinte! wor! of #ateria) s&ecification/ -y #oc3 *&s an!

-y &rototy&es. T%ey are in+a)*a-)e an! so we)) 3nown as en"ineerin" artifacts t%at t%ere israre)y #*c% !e-ate a-o*t w%ic% is t%e #ost s*ita-)e. S%a&e/ %owe+er/ can -e re&resente! in #any ot%er ways. 'oo)ean a)"e-ra can re&resent awi!e +ariety of s%a&es an! t%ey #ay -e enco!e! in -inary for#. Lan! arc%itects 9 ; #ay a!o&ta %e0a!eci#a) co!e an! a transfor#ation &rocess for e0a#inin" interactions an! se&aratin"#etric an! to&o)o"ica) &ro&erties of for#. T%is is t%e for# of #o!e))in" w%ic% na+a) arc%itects%a+e ne")ecte!. Dyna#ic &%ysica) #o!e)s %a+e tra!itiona))y -een t%e &ro+ince of o&erationa) researc% an!are a +ita) &art of creation an! trans&ortation syste#s in t%eir -roa!est sense. 'ot% tra!e an!#i)itary effecti+eness are f)ows w%ic% #*st -e re&resente! -y #o!e))in". Den!o"ra#s/association networ3s/ tri& fre1*ency #atrices/ )inear an! !yna#ic &ro"ra##in" an! 5enn!ia"ra#s are a)) *sef*) in s*c% #o!e))in". (as% f)ow #o!e))in" w%ic% %as c%an"e! so #*c% oft%e na+a) arc%itect7s t%in3in"/ is a necessary &art of a)#ost e+ery syste# an! is s*ita-)yre"ar!e! as a !yna#ic &%ysica) #o!e). So is t%e f)ow of &ro!*ction an! its contro) -y networ3sor t%e +ario*s !e+ices c)asse! *n!er #ana"e#ent science. So a)so is t%e science of er"ono#icsw%ic% re&resents t%e f)ows -etween #an an! #ac%ine. Genera)ise! networ3 for#*)ation an!ana)ysis 9 ; is in!ee! wort%y of s&ecia) #ention for t%ose en"a"e! *&on trans&ortationsyste#s/ arc%itect*re in its -roa!est sense. In )oo3in" at inno+ation/ tra!itiona) #o!e))in" can too easi)y -e for"otten. $)*i! f)ow %as

-een #o!e))e! satisfactori)y for a )on" ti#e -y &otentia) f)ow t%eory an! t%e state of stress in#ateria)/ say/ -y stress f*nctions an! tensor ca)c*)*s. In!ee!/ #*c% of #at%e#atics is a#o!e))in" &rocess an! a "reat !ea) of it is a&&)ica-)e to trans&ortation syste#s. Mo!erna&&roac%es to #at%e#atics teac%in" !irects t%e c%i)!7s attention in t%is #anner/ !istin"*is%in"t%e re&resentation of rea) )ife -y #at%e#atica) sy#-o)is# fro# t%e #ani&*)ation of t%esy#-o)s -y )o"ica) r*)es.



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'e%a+io*ra) #o!e)s a!!ress +a)*es. $re1*ent)y +a)*es are s*- ecti+e in+o)+in" t%e senses/e#-racin" e#otion/ *!"#ent/ ris3. 4recise re&resentation i##e!iate)y -eco#es !iffic*)t.How/ for e0a#&)e/ s%o*)! safety -e #o!e))e! W%i)e t%e &%ysica) #o!e)s assist in statin" t%e

&ro-)e# e+en to t%e e0tent of statin" #eas*ra-)e 1*antities/ t%e +a)*e criteria w%ic% #*st statet%e 1*antities t%at are safe or t%at are *nsafe are i#&recise -eca*se safety %as no a-so)*te+a)*e. Not%in" is tota))y safe or w%o))y acce&ta-)e socia))y or f*))y effecti+e. $or t%is reason/

-e%a+io*ra) #o!e)s are treate! in t%e ne0t section w%ic% !ea)s wit% ine0actit*!e.

Dea)in" wit% Ine0actit*!e

Desi"n is concerne! wit% t%e f*t*re w%ic% is *ncertain. T%e o*tco#e of a !esi"n &rocess 8t%e +a)*e of t%e !esi"n 8 #i"%t t%erefore -e e0&ecte! to -e a *!"#ent. T%is *!"#ent #ay -ese&arate! o*t fro# t%e #ateria))y !efina-)e &arts of t%e !esi"n in a +ariety of ways. A -ri!"e!esi"n/ for e0a#&)e/ w%i)e !efina-)e in ter#s of )oa!s/ str*ct*re/ s%a&e an! ser+ice is )ace!wit% t%e *ncertainties re)ate! to safety/ econo#ic ret*rn an! *sef*)ness to t%e co##*nity a)) of

w%ic% are &re!ictions. T%ere are on)y two ways in w%ic% s*c% &re!ictions can -e #a!e 8 -yint*ition or -y statistics. Int*ition sa#&)es %istory -y &ersona) e0&erience an! e0ten!s it into t%e f*t*re t%ro*"%i#a"ination. In t%is way &eo&)e #ay antici&ate f*t*re c%an"es in t%e )aw/ new socia) &ress*res/!e+e)o&in" #i)itary &ost*re/ &o)itica) #anoe*+re/ new #ar3et o&&ort*nities an! #any ot%erfeat*res t%at wi)) affect t%e +a)*e of t%eir !esi"n enter&rise. Int*ition can acco*nt forinco##ens*ra-)e factors s*c% as conscience/ e#otion/ o- satisfaction/ )o--yin"/ fear. Statistics #eas*res %istory in so#e for# an! e0tra&o)ates into t%e f*t*re. 'ayesian !ecisiont%eory intro!*ces t%e i!ea of &ro-a-i)ity &B C as a #eas*re of *ncertain occ*rrence of an e+ent 9: /::; -ase! *&on %istory/ A/ an! so#e a!!itiona) e+i!ence/ '>

p( /A and B p( /A p(A/ and B !"uation #

Howe+er/ t%is is t%e )i3e)i%oo! of an occ*rrence an! !oes not re&resent t%e +a)*e orconse1*ence of its o*tco#e. T%e +a)*e of t%e *ncertain e+ent to t%e &erson en1*irin" is t%e*ti)ity/ / an! 'ayesian !ecision t%eory is #*c% concerne! wit% se)ectin" co*rses of actionw%ic% #a0i#i2e t%e e0&ecte! *ti)ity/

CBCBCB:

j

n

jiji p$ ud u

=

= !"uation %

( -ein" t%e conse1*ence of an e+ent .

It is i#&ortant to !istin"*is% t%e &ro-a-i)ity of occ*rrence w%ic% is si#&)y a for# ofe0tra&o)ation of %istory into t%e f*t*re an! t%e +a)*e of t%e conse1*ence to t%e in!i+i!*a)w%ic% is a s*- ecti+e #atter. Different &eo&)e wi)) assi"n !ifferent n*#erica) +a)*es to t%e*ti)ity of t%e conse1*ence to t%e# an! #*c% of *ti)ity t%eory is concerne! wit% ren!erin" t%eir

&ersona) fee)in"s into n*#-ers. T%is ren!ers t%e int*ition into statistics an! ine0actit*!et%ereafter !isa&&ears. T%e act of !oin" t%is or e+en atte#&tin" it *ns*ccessf*))y is itse)f+a)*a-)e in t%at it #ay se&arate t%e tr*e fee)in" fro# t%e &re *!ice or t%e irrationa). S*c%%ea)t%y intros&ection is a!o&te! -y few &eo&)e wit%o*t t%e force of a !isci&)ine to en"en!er it. T%e #i)itary e1*i+a)ent to *ti)ity is #i)itary wort%. T%is is a #eas*re of t%e correctness of!efence a"ainst an attac3 Bor +ice@+ersaC. Syste# effecti+eness of a #i)itary syste# #ay -ee0&resse! as>

S.E. $ L

. DL

. AL

. & L

!"uation '

$ L

is t%e ca&a-i)ity in ter#s of/ say/ s&ee!/ &ay)oa!/ #iss !istance/ ran"e/ ca#o*f)a"e/ rate of!etection/ etc. D

L is t%e !e&en!a-i)ity/ i.e. t%e a-i)ity to a!o&t a ca&a-i)ity w%en ca))e! *&on.

AL

is t%e a+ai)a-i)ity to s*stain ca&a-i)ity for s&ecifie! ti#es an! is a f*nction of re)ia-i)ityan! #aintaina-i)ity. &

Lis t%e #i)itary wort%. Eac% one of t%ese is a #atri0 wit% rows



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re&resentin" states of t%e syste# an! co)*#ns t%e !ifferent #issions or scenarios. S*c% a -asic#o!e) can -e !e+e)o&e! into "reat co#&)e0ity. Most s*- ecti+e fi"*res are concentrate! in t%e)ast #atri0/ #i)itary wort%/ re&resentin" t%e +a)*e of t%is syste# to a co##an!er. In si#&)ecases t%is can act*a))y -e 1*antifie! *sin" "a#in" t%eory in w%ic% t%e *ti)ity of a co*rse ofaction -y (o##an!er Y *sin" one set of tactics a"ainst (o##an!er can -e e0&resse! ins*c% n*#erate ter#s as t%e &ercenta"e of tan3s !estroye! or t%e econo#ic !is-enefit to t%eene#y. A&art fro# t%e *ti)ity of #oney to an in!i+i!*a)/ ine0actit*!e occ*rs co+ert)y in t%ose!isco*nte! cas% f)ow e0ercises w%ic% %a+e -eco#e fa#i)iar to na+a) arc%itects 9:


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associate! !isci&)ines. It is not easy to a!!ress t%is s*- ect in "enera)ities -eca*se !esi"n/ )i3e)i+in"/ is a #atter of so#e -rea!t%. (ynics wo*)! &oint o*t t%at t%e on)y #a or a!+ance in #ariti#e trans&ortation syste#s t%iscent*ry %as -een t%e intro!*ction of container traffic an! t%at it was ac%ie+e! wit%o*t t%e

-enefit of syste#s en"ineerin" #et%o!o)o"y. T%ey wo*)! a!! t%at ot%er inno+ation in s%i&!esi"n %as -een tec%no)o"y )e!/ econo#ic *stification fo))owin". T%e 1*estion w%ic% #*st -eface! is w%et%er t%ese int*iti+e sta-s/ w%i)e often -ri))iant)y in+enti+e/ are a!e1*ate an!e0%a*sti+e. One answer #*st )ie wit% t%e econo#ics of researc% an! !e+e)oent. T%e !ays w%en asyste# !esi"ner co*)! se)ect fro# a wi!e ran"e of a+ai)a-)e co#&onents %a+e "one.S&ec*)ati+e en"ineerin" !e+e)oent %as -eco#e rarer -eca*se t%e s3i))s nee!e! for it arerarer an! #ore e0&ensi+e. I!entification of s*ita-)e co#&onents for !e+e)oent nee! to -e#a!e #ore !e)i-erate)y an! in t%e conte0t of o+era)) syste#s arc%itect*re. $*rt%er#ore/ t%ewor)! is -eco#in" )ess !o#inate! -y t%at -)atant ca&ita)is# w%ic% i"nore! socia) an!en+iron#enta) factors. T%e ()*- of Ro#e %as ne+er/ !es&ite its wi)! inacc*racies/ -een w%o))y!is#isse!, #ore an! #ore is t%e a!%erence to econo#ic "rowt% as a sin")e o- ecti+e -ein"

1*estione!. E+en w%ere econo#ics &ro+i!es t%e &ri#e +aria-)es/ t%e effect of e0terna)ities%a+e -eco#e #ore &ressin". T%e o&en@#in!e! society of #any co*ntries is now a-)e t%ro*"%

&*-)ic !e-ate to re&resent factors w%ic% *se! to -e co#forta-)y o-sc*re -*t w%ic% now -roa!en consi!erations to s*c% a !e"ree t%at !ecision #a3in" is &*s%e! *&war!s/ *s*a))y to"o+ern#ent )e+e). B4reser+ation of t%e en+iron#ent is ty&ica).C T%*s t%ere is )ess c%oice for t%e syste# !esi"ner in t%e se)ection of en"ineerin" an!arc%itect*ra) co#&onents, t%e si#&)e &rofit #oti+e is no )on"er tena-)e, t%e owner #asters w%oen oye! a*tocratic contro) of t%eir #ariti#e trans&ortation syste# %a+e "one, re"*)ation/constraint/ in%i-ition/ e0terna) contro)/ )o--y/ sanctions/ %a+e -eco#e &re!o#inant, c*sto#erscan -e #ore circ*#s&ect in a #ore wi!e)y co#&etiti+e wor)!. T%ese see# to -e co#&e))in" reasons for )oo3in" -roa!)y at trans&ortation 1*estions.'o*n!aries for consi!eration nee! to -e wi!e an! nee! to -e c%osen an! a!!resse! wit%

!e)i-eration an! !isci&)ine. Strict a!%erence to econo#ics/ sa+e for t%e #ost e)e#entarysyste#s/ is not )i3e)y in t%e f*t*re to -e &rofita-)e. In!ee!/ fai)*re of #any +ent*res in t%e &ast%as -een tracea-)e to t%e !is#issa) of socia) factors !*rin" !esi"n or/ if t%ey were consi!ere! tot%e fact t%at no re!*n!ancy %a! -een &)ace! in t%e syste# to -y&ass any !estr*cti+e effects/in!*stria)/ &o)itica)/ socia) or econo#ic. W%at is )ess o-+io*s is %ow #*c% of t%e syste# #*st -e or can -e 1*antifie! to assist!ecision #a3in". It is certain t%at t%e syste# #*st -e #o!e))e! so t%at it #ay -e co#&re%en!e!an! #ani&*)ate! to a!+anta"e. So#e of t%e #o!e)s are nat*ra))y n*#erate an! &resent no

&ro-)e#s. T%ose &arts i!entifie! in t%e &re+io*s section are nat*ra))y inn*#erate. J*st w%ys%o*)! t%ey -e force! into fi"*res It is 1*ite c)ear t%at if 1*antification !oes not %e)& !ecision#a3in"/ it is &oint)ess an! -eca*se !ecision #a3in" is a &ersona) #atter/ so#e &eo&)e wi)) fin!it a %e)& w%ere ot%er fin! it a %in!rance. Decision #a3in"/ %owe+er/ is not often a sin"*)ar)y

&ersona) #atter. It is *s*a))y a 1*estion of &ers*a!in" ot%ers t%ro*"% a s*ita-)e #e!i*# of

co##*nication. So#e/ w%ose e!*cation %as -een confine! to t%e c)assics fin! wor!s a!e1*ate,ot%ers are -etter &ers*a!e! -y n*#-ers an! )o"ic. Acce&tin" t%at n*#eracy wi)) -e *sef*) to so#e &eo&)e we #*st e0a#ine w%et%er eac% for#of n*#eratin" t%e ine0actit*!e is con+incin" an! t%erefore satisfactory as a #e!i*# ofco##*nication. 4ro-a-i)ity of occ*rrence is t%e easiest to acce&t -eca*se &eo&)e e0&ect %istoryto -e re&eate!. It is #ost con+incin" as a co#&arator. W%ere it can &)ace o*tco#es in an or!erof )i3e)i%oo! an! t%e statistics *&on w%ic% it is -ase! are cre!i-)e/ it is a rea!i)y acce&ta-)e#eas*re. E0&erience %as s%own t%at !ecision #a3ers fin! it #ore !iffic*)t to acce&t t%e 1*antificationof t%e +a)*e of t%e o*tco#e/ @ i.e. t%e *ti)ity or t%e #i)itary wort% 8 *n)ess t%ey %a+e &erfor#e!it t%e#se)+es. As a #eans of co##*nication/ it is t%erefore c*rrent)y so#ew%at s*s&ect.W%ere t%e c%an"es of o*tco#e a"ainst &reference are "ra!*a) an! contin*o*s/ t%ere is so#e



12/13


acce&tance of t%is #eas*re. T%ere are %owe+er two factors w%ic% &rofo*n!)y affect itsacce&ta-i)ity. $irst)y/ t%ere is not a)ways con+incin" an! co#&)ete %istorica) !ata *&on w%ic%t%e )i3e)i%oo! of e+ents #ay -e &re!icte!. Secon!)y/ &reference is so#eti#es +io)ent)y affecte!

-y a sin")e an! a&&arent)y insi"nificant c%an"e in t%e scenario. If/ for e0a#&)e/ a#a)"a#ationof two tra!es *nions &ro+i!es t%e# wit% a #ono&o)y for !isr*&tion of a +ent*re/ t%e &referencean! conse1*ent !ecision #ay c%an"e #ar3e!)y. If s*c% a &ossi-i)ity %a! -een &ro&er)y e0&ose!!*rin" t%e &rece!in" &%ases of !esi"n/ an int*iti+e !ecision co*)! %a+e -een &refera-)e.4er%a&s catastro&%e t%eory co*)! assist %ere 9 ;. T%ere is certain)y roo# for researc%. P*antification of *ti)ity an! t%e *se of tra!itiona) !ecision t%eory is t%en acce&ta-)e w%en%istory is a re)ia-)e -ase for &re!iction an! w%en t%e scenario is not s*- ect to s*!!en+icissit*!es. Mi)itary wort% is )ess s*sce&ti-)e to s*c% treat#ent an! 1*antification of syste#effecti+eness %as not -een fo*n! wi!e)y acce&ta-)e. Ne+ert%e)ess/ it is often *sef*) to &)ace at)east t%ose &arts w%ic% are n*#erate/ s*c% as ca&a-i)ity/ !e&en!a-i)ity an! a+ai)a-i)itya)on"si!e a +er-a) !escri&tion of #i)itary wort% an! )ife cyc)e cost 9: ; to assist *!"#ent inint*iti+e !ecision #a3in". Decision #a3ers can t%e wei"% t%e n*#erate an! t%e inn*#erateto"et%er wit%o*t *n!*e !eference to eit%er, t%ey can/ f*rt%er/ i!entify e)e#ents of t%e syste#

w%ic% are +ery inf)*entia) or e0&ensi+e or o*t of conte0t. (ost -enefit ana)ysis can a)so -e rewar!in" if it !oes not o-sc*re any s*- ecti+ity in t%ec%oice of !isco*nt rate. 5a)*e *!"#ents e0&resse! in ter#s of #oney !o nee! to -e reser+e!for t%ose factors w%ic% can con+incin")y -e so re&resente! an! co##*nicate! to ot%ers.En+iron#ent an! e#otion are not a#on" t%e#. T%e increase in t%e irres&onsi-)e *se of cost

-enefit ana)ysis %as acco#&anie! t%e "reat e0&ansion in t%e n*#-er of &eo&)e w%o #ani&*)ate#oney an! t%e !i#in*tion of t%ose w%o create wea)t%. $*22y sets !o not o-+io*s)y esta-)is% t%e confi!ence wit% w%ic% a so)*tion #ay -e *!"e!.Intersection of #e#-ers%i& sets is ac%ie+e! -y t%e se)ection of e0tre#e +a)*es an! canre&resent on)y t%e safest co*rse/ o-sc*rin" t%e *ti)ity of an o*tco#e. Ne+ert%e)ess/ t%istec%ni1*e s%o*)! not -e !iscar!e! wit%o*t t%o*"%t. At &resent/ it is an esoteric for# ofco##*nication -*t "reater fa#i)iarity #ay #a3e it #ore "enera))y acce&ta-)e in ti#e.

W%at t%en %as t%is s*r+ey of !esi"n #et%o!o)o"y re+ea)e! w%ic% is of -enefit to !esi"ners oftrans&ortation syste#s $irst/ it %as s%own t%at a !isci&)ine! a&&roac% to !esi"n is *sef*) an!can -e *se! wit%o*t !a#a"in" inno+ati+e t%o*"%t. T%e !isci&)ine is si#&)e>

!efine t%e o- ecti+e/esta-)is% arenas an! -o*n!aries/in+ent so)*tions/#o!e) t%e so)*tions an! c%ec3 t%eir re&resentation/test t%e so)*tions a"ainst +a)*e criteria/ inc)*!in" t%e sensiti+ity of

eac% +aria-)e/ an!se)ect t%at -est s*ite! to t%is o- ecti+e.

T%e too)s a+ai)a-)e to assist t%is &rocess are !i+erse in!ee! an! nee! to -e se)ecte! wit% care

to ens*re t%at t%ey are t%e #ost s*ita-)e. T%e #et%o!o)o"y set o*t in t%is &a&er is a&&)ica-)e to any set of reso*rces or"anise! toac%ie+e a state! f*nction. It is )i3e)y %owe+er/ t%at t%e )ar"er t%e syste#/ t%e #ore nee! t%ere isfor a !isci&)ine -eca*se t%e syste#7s arc%itect is )ess a-)e to re)y on si#&)e ratiocination. He#*st a)so fin! t%e nee! at t%e +ery )east to !is&)ay eac% of t%e ste&s en*#erate! a-o+e/ e+ent%o*"% %e #ay not fee) o-)i"e! to 1*antify tota))y. Trans&ortation syste#s of w%ic% t%e s%i& is

-*t a s#a)) &art are ine+ita-)y )ar"e an! #*st &rofit fro# an a&&)ication of a #et%o!o)o"y. In t%is res&ect/ t%e #ariti#e syste# !esi"ner is in a *ni1*e &osition an! o*"%t to -e seen to

-e )ea!in" t%o*"%t in !esi"n. $ew ot%er !esi"ners 8 sa+e town &)anners an! "o+ern#ent &)anners 8 %a+e t%e o&&ort*nity to e#-race so #any of t%e arenas w%ose -o*n!aries were!isc*sse! ear)ier in t%e &a&er. He %as to create a safe en"ineere! +e%ic)e wit% a


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to en"ineer free!o# in t%e syste# so t%at it wi)) ac%ie+e its o- ecti+e re)ia-)y. T%is is ac%a))en"e an! an art 9: ;.

References

:. $rosc%/ R. A./ QT%e E#er"in" S%a&e of 4o)icies for t%e Ac1*isition of Ma or Syste#s/Marine Tec%no)o"y / J*)y : .

k. j. rawson - maritime system design methodology

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