june 5, 200311 th biennial symposium on groundwater recharge recharge policy analysis money,...

June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge

Recharge Policy AnalysisMoney, Facilities and Choices in the

Tucson Active Management Area

Kenneth SeasholesAssistant Area Director

Tucson Active Management AreaArizona Department of Water Resources

11th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater RechargeJune 5, 2003 Tempe, Arizona


Recharge Planning

Pima Mine Rd.Pima Mine Rd.

ClearwaterClearwater

Lower Santa Cruz USF

Lower Santa Cruz USF

Avra USFAvra USF

BKWBKW

Kai-Red RockKai-Red Rock

Service Areas/CC&Ns

Operational USFs

Operational GSFs

Central Arizona Project

Groundw

aterflow

CMIDCMID

CAP Recharge Facilities


AVID Proposal

Service Areas/CC&Ns

Operational USFs

Operational GSFs



• Mutually beneficial financing

• Additional facility capacity

• Potential on-site recovery

AWBA would indirectly finance a CAP pipeline to the AVID GSF

AVID


AVID Proposal

Service Areas/CC&Ns

Operational USFs

Operational GSFs




Analysis

1998 Regional Recharge Plan

• Much of the report remains valid and useful

• Scenarios are outdated and inadequate

Updated analysis• More extensive physical & financial variables

• Emphasis on AWBA activities


Analysis

USF USF

GSF

AWBA

CAWCD

Property Tax

General

Fund

Cost of Water

Fac

ility

F

ees

$21/AF

With

draw

al

Fee

GroundwaterDemand

AvailableCapacity

Available

CAP Water

Credits

Recharge Facilities

Policy VariablesPhysical

• Facility capacity• CAP availability

Revenues• Tax• Fee• Fund

Expenses• Water• Fee

Credits• Firming• Water Management• Other


Analysis

=IF(N3-$F$14<=2001,($I$14*1000)/$F$14,0)


Analytic Tool

• DEMAND by sector & provider

• USF & GSF capacities & fees

• AWBA funding & storage

• STORAGE by facility, storer & year

• SUMMARY

Series of linked, interactive spreadsheets


Analytic Tool- Demand Time

Sec

tors

% C

AP


Analytic Tool- USFs

Fac

ilitie

s

Capacity

Cost


Analytic Tool- Storage

Year

Storers

Facilities


Analytic Tool- AWBAAd Valorem tax

$0.0 mil.

$0.5 mil.

$1.0 mil.

$1.5 mil.

$2.0 mil.

$2.5 mil.

$3.0 mil.

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

year

$/A

F

Projected

Actual

Incentive Priced CAP

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

year

$/A

F

Firm

Advisory

Projected

“Baseline” Assumptions• Cost of water: CAP advisory rates through 2007, 3% growth thereafter

• Ad valorem tax: $1.6 million base, 3% annual growth

• Facility charge: flat $12, based on average cost at TAMA USFs and 2% GSF

“Baseline” Assumptions• Cost of water: CAP advisory rates through 2007, 3% growth thereafter

• Ad valorem tax: $1.6 million base, 3% annual growth

• Facility charge: flat $12, based on average cost at TAMA USFs and 2% GSF


• Lowering the cost of credits through buy-down of the $21/AF

“Baseline” 98% USF

Scenario Testing

Hypothetical Example


80% USF; 20% GSF with $4/AF buy-down


Scenario Testing


80% USF; 20% GSF with $4/AF buy-down


Scenario Testing30% USF; 70% GSF with $4/AF buy-down


Issue Identification

• 200,000+ AF shortfall (30% below target)

• Shortfall reflects revenue constraints and cost of credits

• Will likely result in future groundwater mining

The Tucson AMA’s firming target will not be met with projected revenue


Conclusions

Recharge policy analysis is complex and multivariate

Decision-support tools can provide insight and guidance

The water management implications of recharge warrant rigorous analysis

june 5, 200311 th biennial symposium on groundwater recharge recharge policy analysis money,...

Documents

biennial symposium

arizona slide

regional recharge plan

avid gsf avid slide

cap pipeline

inadequate updated analysis

awba activities

useful scenarios