july/september 2015/16 · central bank of egypt external position of the egyptian economy...

Central Bank of Egypt

External Position of the Egyptian Economy

July/September 2015/16

Volume No. (51)

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position

Preface The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is a series produced by the Economic Research Sector in the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). The report tracks, on quarterly basis, the international transactions that the Egyptian economy conducts with the rest of the world. It relies, for this purpose, on the national statistics that are regularly compiled in line with the SDDS prescriptions.

Enthused by the CBE keenness to enhance its disclosure, transparency and communication policy, the report is meant to serve several functions. Generally, it spreads, to a broad array of readers, knowledge of Egypt’s external accounts including the balance of payments, external debt, international investment position and external liquidity. Particularly, it monitors key external sector performance indicators of the economy in order to identify areas of policy needs. The information revealed in this series has also significant implications for decision-making, investment climate, doing-business environment and sovereign credit ratings.

The report contains 6 sections. The first three give a performance

portrait of the key components of Egypt's Balance of Payments (BOP), International Investment Position (IIP) and its external liquidity. The fourth and fifth review developments related to Egypt’s external debt in its different classifications, in addition to the Egyptian pound exchange rate performance. The sixth section is a statistical part that provides more details on the above mentioned five sections. This is in addition to a glossary.

The report is downloadable from CBE website www.cbe.org.eg Hard copies can be obtained from the Economic Research Sector, 8th floor, 54 El Gomhoreya Street, Cairo.


Table of Contents Page

Overview

Section I: Balance of Payments (BOP)

BOP Performance 1 1-Current Account 1 2-Capital and Financial Account

4

Section II: International Investment Position (IIP) 7

Section III: External Liquidity

A -Net International Reserves (NIR) 11

B -Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) 11

Section IV: External Debt

A - Breakdown by Maturity 13 B - Breakdown by Type 14 C - Breakdown by Currency 14 D - Breakdown by Creditor 15 E - Breakdown by Debtor 15 F - External Debt Indicators 16

Section V: Exchange Rate Developments 17

Statistics Section VI: Appendix I

1- Balance of Payments 21 2- International Investment Position (IIP) 23 3 3- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey

(CPIS)

24 4- NIR & NFA at Banks 25 5- External Debt by Type 26 6- External Debt Indicators 27 7- External Debt by Debtor 28 8- Foreign Exchange Rates 29

Appendix II

A- Medium- and Long-Term External Debt 33-47

B- Projected Medium- and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service

48-62

C- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt versus US Dollar

63

Appendix III

Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions

65

Box. (2): Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions 66

Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt 67

Box. (4): Tourism Market Diversification 68

Glossary 69


Overview

Egypt's transactions with the external world recorded an overall BOP deficit of about US$ 3.7 billion during July/Sept. of FY 2015/2016 (against a surplus of US$ 410.0 million in the respective period a year earlier). The current account deficit widened to some US$ 4.0 billion (from about US$ 1.6 billion), and the capital and financial account registered a higher net inflow of US$ 1.5 billion (compared with US$ 387.0 million). The current account deficit was mainly traceable to the US$ 10.0

billion deficit in the trade balance (the same level of the respective period), and the fall in the services & income surplus to around US$ 1.7 billion (from about US$ 2.2 billion). Also, net unrequited transfers retreated by 30.2 percent to about US$ 4.3 billion in the reporting period (compared with about US$ 6.2 billion ). The capital and financial account revealed net inflows of US$ 1.5 billion (against US$ 387.0 million).

Egypt's International Investment Position (IIP)* at end of September 2015 recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of US$ 97.8 billion, up by 4.49 percent compared to June 2015. Net International Reserves (NIR)

decreased by US$ 3.7 billion to

reach US$ 16.3 billion, thus

covering 3.3 months of merchandise

imports at end of September 2015.

The decrease was mainly ascribed to

the decline in foreign currencies by

about US$ 3.7 billion. During the

report’s preparation, NIR reached

US$ 16.5 billion at end of February

2016. Banks' net foreign assets reached about US$ 1.9 billion at end of September 2015, down by around US$ 1.5 billion during July/ September 2015/2016 . Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 1.7 percent during the period concerned, reaching US$ 35.2 billion at end of September 2015. As a percentage of total deposits, they made up 17.8 percent. Total external debt decreased by about 4.0 percent to about US$ 46.1 billion at end of September 2015, from US$ 48.1 billion at end of June 2015. The external debt has remained within manageable limits and its position continued to have a favorable structure, as 93.9 percent of the debt are medium and long-term. The weighted average of the inter-bank foreign exchange market rate reached EGP 7.7301 per US dollar at end of September 2015, against EGP 7.5301 per US dollar at end of June 2015. Accordingly, the Egyptian pound inter-bank rate depreciated by 2.6 percent during July/Sept. 2015/2016.

________________________ * IIP statement was first introduced in Volume 20 of the External Position Report. It used to be updated on an

annual basis, but it is currently updated on a quarterly basis according to SDDS requirements.

Section I

Balance of Payments (BOP)

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 1

BOP Performance

gypt's BOP recorded an overall

deficit of some US$ 3.7 billion during July/Sept. of FY 2015/16 (versus an overall surplus of US$ 410.0 million a year earlier). The current account registered a deficit of about US$ 4.0 billion (against about US$ 1.6 billion). The capital and financial account registered a net inflow of US$ 1.5 billion (compared with US$ 387.0 million). Chart (1) shows developments in Egypt’s BOP main components, on quarterly basis.

1- Current Account The current account deficit was due to the US$ 10.0 billion trade deficit (the same level of the respective period), and the fall in the services & income surplus to around US$ 1.7 billion during the period under review (from about US$ 2.2 billion). Add to this, the 30.2 percent decline in the net unrequited transfers which registered approximately US$ 4.3 billion in the reporting period (compared with about US$ 6.2 billion).

1.1: Trade on Goods The trade volume decreased by 14.9 percent, to reach US$ 19.3 billion (5.3 percent of GDP) during July/ September 2015/16. The trade deficit stabilized at some US$ 10.0 billion (2.7 percent of GDP), due to the following developments: Merchandise exports decreased by 26.5 percent to US$ 4.6 billion, due to the decrease in both oil exports by 43.0 percent (33.9 percent of total exports) and in non-oil exports by 13.7 percent. As a result, the export/import ratio decreased to 31.8 percent, from 38.7 percent. Merchandise imports decreased by 10.4 percent to US$ 14.6 billion, due to the decrease in both oil imports by 29.8 percent (19.2 percent of total imports), and in non-oil imports by 4.1 percent (80.8 percent of total imports). The following charts illustrate the distribution of commodity exports by

E

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10

12

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2014/2015 2015/2016

US$ bn Chart (1) : Egypt’s BOP main components

Current Account Capital & Financail Account Overall Balance

-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468

2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016

US$ bn

Chart(2):Oil & Non oil Exports and Imports July / September

oil exports non oil exports oil imports non oil importsTrade balance


degree of processing and imports by degree of use, during July / Sept. 2015/16. Hereunder is the geographical distribution of merchandise exports and imports: - The main Egypt's trade partners

were Italy, UAE, USA, UK, India, Saudi Arabia and Germany. These countries, combined, accounted for some 55.6 percent of total exports.

- As for imports, Egypt's trade

partners were Russia, China, Germany, UAE, Saudi Arabia, USA, Italy, Turkey, Kuwait, and UK. These countries, combined, accounted for some 52.9 percent of total imports.

1.2: Services & Income Balance The services & income surplus fell to about US$ 1.7 billion (against US$ 2.2 billion). The decline in the surplus was due to the fact that the decline in the services & income receipts outpaced that in the services & income payments, as shown below:

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2014/2015 2015/2016

US$ bnChart (7): Services & Income balance

Services & Income Receipts Services & Income PaymentsServices & Income Balance

Chart (3): Proceeds of Merchandise Exports US$ 4.6 bn.

Fuel, mineral oils &

products 34.3 %

Raw materials

9.6 %

Semi-finished goods 8.9%

Finished goods 47.2%

EU34.8%

Other EU Countries

5.4%Russian Federation

&C.I.S1.4%

USA9.1%

Arab Countries

28.1%

Asian Countries

12.0%

Af rican Countries

2.7%

Australia & Other

Countries6.5%

Chart (5) Exports by Geographical Distribution July / September 2015/2016

Chart (4): Payments for Merchandise Imports

US$ 14.6 bn, of which

Fuel, mineral oils &

products 16.7%

Raw materials

11.6 %

Inter-mediate goods 23.9%

Invest-ment goods

17.0%

Con-sumer goods 30.0%

EU29.6%

Other EU Countries

5.9%

Russian Federation

& C.I.S11.2%

USA3.8%

Arab Countries

19.9%

Asian Countries

20.4%

African Countries

1.0%

Australia & Other

Countries8.2%

Chart (6) Imports by Geographical Distribution during July / September 2015/2016

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 3 1.2.1: Services & income receipts fell by 20.3 percent, to some US$ 5.1 billion (against about US$ 6.4 billion), driven by the decrease in most of their items as follows: Other Services receipts to US$

552.1 million (against some US$ 1.1 billion), due to the fall of contractor & construction services receipts, advertisements & market research services, and other services receipts.

Government services receipts to

US$ 123.2 million (against US$ 583.2 million), reflecting the fall in other government receipts.

Tourism revenues by 17.5 percent

to about US$ 1.7 billion (from some US$ 2.1 billion), as a result of the 9.1% fall in tourist nights, which scored 23.7 million nights (versus 26.1 million), as well as the fall in average tourist spending to US$ 72.7 per night (from US$ 80.1 per night). (see Section II)

Transportation receipts by 1.4 percent to about US$ 2.6 billion (against some US$ 2.7 billion), due to the fall in Suez Canal dues to about US$ 1.4 billion (against some US$ 1.5 billion), which decreased, in turn, as a result of the 5.3 percent fall of SDR against the dollar, despite the 2.2 percent increase in the net tonnage. Add to this, the fall of receipts from abroad on account of charter flight.

On the other hand, investment income receipts rose to US$ 101.2 million (from US$ 43.6 million), mainly due to the increase in direct investment income.

1.2.2: Services & income payments fell by 19.1 percent, to about US$ 3.5 billion (against about US$ 4.3 billion). This was attributed to the fall in all their items:

Investment income payments by

31.8 percent to some US$ 1.2 billion (against about US$ 1.8 billion), as a result of lower transfers of foreign petroleum companies and foreign companies' profits, interest on external debt, and interest and dividends on bonds and securities.

Other services payments by 16.1 percent, to US$ 850.8 million (against about US$ 1.0 billion), driven by lower amounts transferred by foreign petroleum companies, payment to foreign experts, royalties & license fees, and legal & consulting fees.

Government services payments by 9.0 percent to US$ 183.5 million (from US$ 201.6 million), reflecting the decrease in other government expenditure.

Travel payments by 4.3 percent to US$ 791.5 million (against US$ 827.2 million), due to lower travel expenses for pilgrimage, and pocket money for government employees travelling abroad.

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2014/2015 2015/2016

US$ bn Chart (9) Income Balance

Income Receipts Income Payments Income Balance

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2014/2015 2015/2016

US$ bn Chart (8) Service Balances

Other Services Balance Government Services BalanceTourism Services Balance Transportation Services BalanceServices Balance


Transportation payments by 3.8 percent, to US$ 381.5 million (against US$ 396.4 million), due to the decline in amounts remitted abroad on account of freight services, and amounts transferred to foreign shipping companies.

1.3: Unrequited transfers (Net) As shown in chart (9), unrequited transfers (net) decreased by 30.2 percent, to about US$ 4.3 billion, (from some US$ 6.2 billion). This was mainly due to the drop in net official transfers (cash & commodity) to US$ 21.9 million (from some US$ 1.5 billion), and net private transfers to about US$ 4.3 billion (against some US$ 4.7 billion) as a result of the fall in workers' remittances.

Against this background, some of the external balance indicators decreased as shown in chart (10).

2- Capital and Financial Account The capital and financial account registered a higher net inflow of about US$ 1.5 billion (compared with US$ 387.0 million) as an outcome of: A- The rise in net inflows of foreign direct investment in Egypt from about US$ 1.3 billion to some US$ 1.4 billion. Such a rise in FDI in Egypt was an outcome of the increase in net inflows for greenfield investments, to post some US$ 1.1 billion (versus US$ 734.9 million), and the decline in net inflow for oil sector investments, to post US$ 182.6 million (versus US$ 496.2 million). The sectorial breakdown of total FDI inflows as depicted in chart (11) shows that the oil sector has the biggest share of 53.9 percent. As regards the other sectors, the majority of FDI went to the services sectors, with the 9.3 percent dis-tributed as follows: the communi-cations and information technology (1.8 percent), the real estate sector (1.4 percent), the financial sector (0.3 percent), and other services sectors (5.8 percent). The share of the manufacturing sector was 8.0 percent and the construction sector 0.2 percent. The remaining portion was acquired by undistributed sectors. B- The reversal of Portfolio Investment in Egypt to register a net outflow of about US$ 1.4 billion (against a net inflow of US$ 316.0 million). This was mainly a result of the repayment of bonds of about US$ 1250.0 million worth, which were issued in 2005. Also, foreigners’ net investments on the EGX fell to achieve net purchases of US$ 14.1 million (against US$ 241.5 million).

0.0

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2.0

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2014/2015 2015/2016

US$ bnChart : (10) Unrequited Transfers(Net)

Private Transfers (Net) Official Transfers (Net) Workers' Remittances

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Current Receipts (excludingofficial transfers) / Current

Payments

Current Receipts / CurrentPayments

Servi ces Receipts / ServicesPayments

Merchandise Exports /Merchandise Imports

% Chart (11): External Balance IndicatorsJuly / September

2014/2015

2015/2016


C- Medium- & long-term loans and suppliers' credit realized net repayments of US$ 672.4 million, (against US$ 383.2 million). This was an outcome of the fall in total disbursements to US$ 212.8 million (against US$ 533.4 million), and the

fall in total repayments to US$ 885.2 million (from US$ 916.6 million).

D- Other assets & liabilities realized a net inflow of US$ 855.1 million (against a net outflow of some US$ 1.7 billion).

Petroleum sector53.9%

Construction sector0.2%

Manufacturing sector8.0%

Undistributed sector28.6%

Real Estate sector1.4%

Financial sector0.3%

Other Services5.8%

Communications& Information

Technology 1.8%

Services9.3%

Chart (12): Total FDI in Egypt by Economic Sector

Q1 2015/2016

Section II

International Investment Position (IIP)


International Investment Position (IIP) At end of Sept. 2015*

Egypt’s IIP at end of September 2015 recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of US$ 97.8 billion, up by 4.49 percent compared to end-June 2015. As such, Egypt’s foreign assets represented 30.4 percent of its

foreign liabilities.

Source: Appendix I. table (2)

Preliminary Egypt's IIP data at end of September 2015 showed a decrease in total assets and total liabilities, compared to the position of end-June 2015, to achieve net liabilities of about US$ 97.8 billion versus US$ 93.6 billion.

Egypt's total financial assets decreased by about US$ 4.7 billion, to reach US$ 42.8 billion in September 2015, down by 9.9 percent compared to June 2015. Meanwhile, total financial liabilities amounted to US$ 140.6 billion, decreasing by about US$ 0.5 billion or 0.4 percent, compared with June 2015.

____________________________ * Released in September 2009 according to SDDS

requirements.

Assets and Liabilities by Component: 1- Assets decreased by 9.9 percent to

US$ 42.8 billion at end of

September 2015 from US$ 47.5

billion at end of June 2015.

This was mainly due to the

following developments: - Portfolio investment abroad

decreased by about 21.1 percent to about US$ 1.5 billion com-pared to June 2015.

- Reserve assets decreased by

19.4 percent to about US$ 15.8 billion.

- Other investments' assets de-creased by about 2.6 percent to about US$ 18.8 billion.

- Meanwhile, foreign direct

investment abroad remained unchanged at US$ 6.7 billion compared to June 2015.

-133.6 -131.2 -132.6 -141.1 -140.6

50.3 45.8 44.4 47.5 42.8

-83.3 -85.5 -88.2 -93.6 -97.8

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50

100

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2014 2015

US$ billion

Chart (1)International Investment Position (IIP)

End of

Assets Liabilities Net IIP

Direct investment

abroad15.7%

Portfolio investment

Assets3.5%

Other investment

43.9%

Reserve assets36.9%

Chart (2)Breakdown of Assets by Component

AssetsSep. 2015


2- Liabilities to non-residents

decreased by 0.4 percent to about


September 2015.

This was mainly due to the

following developments:

- Portfolio investment in Egypt

decreased by 20.0 percent to

about US$ 5.6 billion.

- Other investments' liabilities

decreased by 1.2 percent to about

US$ 42.6 billion.

- On the other hand, FDI in Egypt

increased by 1.5 percent to about

US$ 92.4 billion.

Indicators:

IIP net external liabilities (assets

minus liabilities) at end of

September 2015, represented about

26.6 percent of Egypt’s GDP, versus

about 29.0 percent at end of June

2015.

Direct investment

in Egypt

65.7%

Portfolio investment Liabil ities

4.0%

Other investment

30.3%

Chart (3)Breakdown of Liabilities by Component

LiabilitiesSep. 2015

-493.9-557.4 -577.1

-466.1-598.7

-24.7 -25.3 -27.6 -29.0 -26.6

-650-600-550-500-450-400-350-300-250-200-150-100

-500

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2014 2015

%

Chart (4)Egypt's net IIP to GDP and NIR

End of

Net IIP /NIR Net IIP / GDP


Table 1: Egypt's International Investment Position (US $ billion)

At end of June 2015 September 2015 Difference

Values % Values % Values %

A. Assets 47.5 100.0 42.8 100.0 (4.7) (9.9)

1. Direct Investment 6.7 14.1 6.7 15.7 0.0 0.0

2. Portfolio Investment 1.9 4.0 1.5 3.5 (0.4) (21.1)

2.1 Equity Securities 0.9 1.9 0.9 2.1 0.0 0.0

2.2 Debt Securities 1.0 2.1 0.6 1.4 (0.4) (40.0)

3. Other Investment 19.3 40.6 18.8 43.9 (0.5) (2.6)

3.1 Loans 1.3 2.7 1.2 2.8 (0.1) (7.7)

3.2 Currency & Deposits 18.0 37.9 17.6 41.1 (0.4) (2.2)

4. Reserve Assets 19.6 41.3 15.8 36.9 (3.8) (19.4)

B. Liabilities 141.1 100.0 140.6 100.0 (0.5) (0.4)

1. Direct Investment 91.0 64.5 92.4 65.7 1.4 1.5

2. Portfolio Investment 7.0 5.0 5.6 4.0 (1.4) (20.0)

2.1 Equity Securities 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.0 0.0

2.2 Debt Securities 5.0 3.5 3.6 2.6 (1.4) (28.0)

3. Other Investment 43.1 30.5 42.6 30.3 (0.5) (1.2)

3.1 Trade Credits 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.7 (0.1) (9.1)

3.2 Loans 24.4 17.3 23.9 17.0 (0.5) (2.0)

3.3 Currency & Deposits 16.3 11.6 16.5 11.7 0.2 1.2

3.4 Other Liabilities 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 (0.1) (7.7)

Section III

External Liquidity


External Liquidity A-Net International Reserves (NIR) In order to eliminate the parallel market and curb dollar speculations, the CBE continued its management of the Forex market through the FX Auctions mechanism that has been applied as of December 2012, alongside the dollar interbank system. During July/September 2015/2016, NIR decreased by US$ 3.7 billion to reach US$ 16.3 billion, thus covering 3.3 months of merchandise imports at end of September 2015. The decrease was mainly ascribed to the decline of foreign currencies by about US$ 3.7 billion. During the report’s preparation, NIR reached US$ 16.5 billion at end of February 2016.

(US$ mn)

End of June

2015

Sept.

2015

Net International

Reserves (1-2)

20082

16335

1- Gross Official Reserves 20104 16358

Gold 2420 2337

SDRs 1168 1167

Foreign Currencies 16453 12794

Loans to IMF 63 60

2- Reserve Liabilities 22 23

Reserves/Months of

Imports 4.0 3.3

B- Net Foreign Assets of Banks

(NFA) Banks’ net foreign assets declined by around US$ 1.5 billion during July/September 2015/2016 (against US$ 0.4 billion during the corresponding period a year earlier) to reach US$ 1.9 billion at end of September 2015.

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6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

21.0

June 14 Sept.14 June 15 Sept.15

MonthUS$ bn

Chart (1): NIR & Months of Imports Covered

Foreign Currencies

Loans to IMF

Gold

Reserves/Months of Imports

( Balance at end of Month )

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

June 14 Sept. 14 June 15 Sept. 15

US$ bn

Chart (2): Foreign Assets & Liabilities of Banks

Assets Liabilities

( End of Month)


Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 1.7 percent during the period concerned, reaching US$ 35.2 billion at end of September 2015. Likewise, local currency deposits increased by 4.5 percent. As such, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits at end of September 2015, made up 17.8 percent.

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June 14 Sept. 14 June 15 Sept. 15

LE bn

Chart (3): Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies

Foreign Currency Deposits

Local Currency Deposits

Growth Rate of Foreign Currency Deposits

Growth Rate of Local Currency Deposits

( End of Month) %

Section IV

External Debt


External Debt

gypt's external debt decreased to


September 2015 , from US$ 48.1

billion at end of June 2015. This

decrease in the stock of debt was

driven by an increase in the net

repayments of foreign loans,

facilities and deposits.

A- Breakdown by Maturity

By original maturity, external debt

reaffirmed, at end of September

2015, its usual pattern of long-term

external debt predominance. Long-

term external debt accounted for

US$ 29.3 billion or 63.5 percent of

the total, whereas medium-term

external debt reached US$ 14.0

billion or 30.4 percent and short-

term external debt accounted for

the smallest portion of US$ 2.8

billion or 6.1 percent.

By residual maturity1, medium-

and long-term external debt

decreased, as it represented 82.6

percent of the total debt. In

comparison, they accounted for 93.9

percent of the total by original

maturity. Meanwhile, short-term

debt showed an increase, as it

represented 17.4 percent, compared

to 6.1 percent classified by original

maturity.

1 While the analytical presentation of external debt

by original maturity is the norm recommended in the External Debt Statistics Guide, residual maturity presentation still draws significant attention. In other words, compilation of external debt statistics based on original maturity helps in understanding the nature of capital flows; while the remaining maturity provides a profile of debt service payments, especially those falling due in the near term, and of potential liquidity risks facing the economy. Short-term debt by residual maturity comprises all components of short-term debt with original maturity of up to one year, and the amounts falling due -under medium and long-term debt by original maturity- within one year or less.

E

External Debt by Residual Maturity at end of Sep. 2015

(US$ million)

1. Short-term debt by original maturity 2797.8

2. Medium & long-term debt maturing within one year 5225.2

3. External debt by residual maturity up to 1 year (1+2) 8023.0

Percentage to Total External Debt 17.4%

Percentage to NIR 49.1%

4. Medium & long-term debt by residual maturity 38125.1

Percentage to Total External Debt 82.6%

Long Term Debt

63.5%

Medium Term Debt

30.4%

Short Term debt6.1%

Chart (1)External Debt by original maturity

End of September 2015

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 14 B- Breakdown by Type

Medium- and long-term debt accounted for 93.9 percent of total debt, of which: Paris Club members' debt*

reached about US$ 9.5 billion or 20.6 percent of total debt.

Non-Paris Club members' debt amounted to about US$ 2.9 billion or 6.2 percent of total debt.

International and regional organizations' debt reached about US$ 12.4 billion or 26.8 percent of total debt.

Government bonds and notes reached about US$ 3.5 billion or 7.7 percent of total debt at end of September 2015. These include: (i) US$ 785.8 million of sovereign notes issued in April 2010; (ii) US$ 500.0 million of the 5–year Treasury bonds issued in June 2012; (iii) US$ 1.0 billion of the Euro-Medium Term Notes (E.M.T.N.) issued in May 2013; and (iv) US$ 1.3 billion of the Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N) issued in 2015.

Long-term deposits that have been placed at the CBE by some Arab countries valued at US$ 15.0 billion (32.5 percent of total debt).

Suppliers’ & buyers' credit reached about US$ 1.1 billion or 2.5 percent of total debt.

_______________________ Bilateral loans (rescheduled and non-

rescheduled) and buyers’ credit owed to Paris Club members.

Non-guaranteed medium- and long-term debt of the private sector registered US$ 25.0 million (0.1 percent of total debt).

Short-term debt increased by about US$ 222.5 million to about US$ 2.8 billion or 6.1 percent of total debt. This was mainly due to the increase in non-residents' deposits by US$ 169.2 million and in short-term credit by US$ 53.3 million.

C- Breakdown by Currency

Measuring the currency composition of Egypt's external debt is an important indicator that sheds light on the external debt exposure, arising from currency markets' volatility. A breakdown of the currency composition of external debt indicates that the US dollar is the main borrowing currency, with a relative importance of 68.5 percent of the total. This upward biased share of US dollar largely reflects the fact that there are other outstanding obligations in US dollar to creditors other than the USA (such as AD African Development Bank and IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development).

Rescheduled bilateral debt

12.3%

Other bilateral debt

12.0%

Suppliers' & buyers ' Credits

2.5%

International & regional

organizations26.8%

Egyptian bonds and notes

7.7%

Long Term Deposits

32.5%

Private sector (Non

guaranteed) 0.1%

Short term debt6.1%

Chart( 2 )External Debt StructureEnd of September 2015


Other important currencies ac-counted for 29 percent of the total debt, as follows: the euro which is the runner-up (13.5 percent), the Kuwaiti dinar (5.3 percent), the Special Drawing Rights* (5.2 percent) and the Japanese yen (5.0 percent).

D- Breakdown by Creditor

Distribution by creditor country indicates that 19.4 percent of Egypt's external debt came from five countries; namely Germany (6.3 percent), Japan (4.8 percent), USA (4.4 percent), France (3.4 percent), and UK (0.5 percent). Meanwhile, 38.6 percent was owed to Arab countries (mainly Saudi Arabia**, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates) and 26.8 percent was owed to international organizations*** (mainly World Bank 9.3 percent, EIB 3.5 percent and ADF & AfDB 3.7 percent).

Including Egypt’s allocation of SDRs by the IMF. It does not include the US$ 500 million which is classified

as a 5-year Treasury bond issued in June 2012 to Saudi Fund for Development.

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), European Investment Bank ( EIB), African Development Fund (ADF), and African Development Bank (AfDB).

E- Breakdown by Debtor

The structure of Egypt’s external debt by debtor reveals that the central and local government is the main debtor, with about US$ 23.8 billion or 51.7 percent of the total external debt at end of September 2015, compared with about US$ 25.7 billion or about 53.5 percent at end June 2015, and about of US$ 27.9 billion at end of Sept. 2014.

Monetary authority's external debt at end of September 2015 increased by US$ 192.1 million to US$ 16.5 billion and banks' external debt by US$ 173.5 million to US$ 2.6 billion. In contrast, central and local government debt position decreased by US$ 1.9 billion to US$ 23.8 billion and other sectors' debt position by US$ 409.6 million to US$ 3.2 billion.

US dollar 68.5%

Euro13.5%

Japanese yen

5.0%

SDRs5.2%

Kuwaiti dinar5.3%Other

currencies2.5%

Chart (3)External Debt by Major Currencies

End of Sept.2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

201520142013

(US$ bn)

Chart (5)External Debt by Debtor

End of September

Central & Local Government Monetary Authority

Banks Other Sectors

USA4.4%

France3.4%

Japan4.8%

Germany6.3%

United Kingdom

0.5%

Arab Countries

38.6%

Other countries

7.5%

International organizations

26.8%

Egyptian bonds and

notes7.7%

Chart (4)External Debt by Creditor

End of Sep. 2015

897.3

(1181.3)

(1870.8)

3030.0

(59.0)

192.1

(18.8)

20.4 173.5

(124.8)

7.0

(409.6)

-2000-1500-1000-500

0500

100015002000250030003500

2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016

(US$ mn)

Chart (6)External Debt by Debtor

Share in total increase/decreaseEnd of Sept.

Central & Local GovernmentMonetary AuthorityBanksOther Sectors


F- External Debt Indicators*

The ratio of short-term debt to net international reserves decreased to 17.1 percent at end of September 2015 from 23.0 percent at end of September 2014. In addition, its ratio to total debt registered 6.1 percent (against 8.7 percent). The external debt per capita decreased to US$ 474.3 at end -September 2015 from US$ 493.1 at end- September 2014. As for the external debt in terms of international comparison, debt is within manageable limits. Based on IMF classification, comparing Egypt's key debt indicators with those of other regional country groups show that:- - Egypt's debt stock to GDP (12.6

percent) is among the world's best levels (13.9 percent for Asian developing countries and 68.0 percent for East and Central Europe).

- Egypt's medium and long term

external debt to total external debt at end of September 2015 represented 93.9 percent (93.8 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa and 55.2 percent for Asian developing countries).

- Egypt's debt service ratio**

registered 24.0 percent (54.9 percent for East and Central Europe, and 17.2 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa).

_____________________________________ * For more indicators, refer to appendix I, table No 6. ** Debt-Service Ratio: The ratio of debt service

(interest and principal payments due) during a year, expressed as a percentage of exports (typically of goods and services) for that year. This ratio is considered to be a key indicator of a country’s debt burden.

Medium and long-term debt service reached US$ 2.4 billion during the period July/Sept. 2015/2016 (US$ 2.2 billion for principal repayments and US$ 0.2 billion for interest payments).

16.7

17.1

6.1

24.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016

%

External Debt Indicators July/Sept.

Debt Service / Current Receipts (including t ransfers)Short-term Debt / Net International ReservesShort-term Debt / Total External DebtDebt Service / Exports of Goods and Services

51.7

12.6

474.3

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016

(US$)%

Government External Debt / External DebtExternal Debt /GDPExternal Debt per capita (US$) (right axis)

Chart (7)

Section V

Exchange Rate Developments


Exchange Rate Developments

(i) Inter-bank Rate1:

During July/Sept. of FY 2015/2016, the weighted average of the US dollar in the Egyptian inter-bank market appreciated by about 2.7 percent against the Egyptian pound (EGP). This brought the rate to EGP 7.7301 at end of September 2015, from EGP 7.5301 at end of June 2015. (ii) Market Rate: At end of September 2015, and according to the foreign exchange market (buying price), the Egyptian pound depreciated against the Japanese yen (100 yens) by 4.6 percent, the euro by 3.3 percent, the Kuwaiti dinar by 2.7 percent, and the US dollar & the Saudi riyal by 2.6 percent each. It also depreciated against the UAE dirham by 2.5 percent and the Chinese Yuan by 0.2 percent. Conversely, the Egyptian pound appreciated against the Swiss franc by 1.7 percent , and the pound sterling by 0.9 percent. __________________________ 1 The inter-bank foreign exchange market was

launched in Egypt in December 2004.

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.0

Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15

2014/2015 2015/2016

EGPChart (1):Exchange Rate of USD & Euro against EGP

USD Interbank rate(average) USD market rate(buying price)

Eur o market rate(buying price) (Right axis)

Section VI

Statistics Section


Appendix I

Table Page

I- Balance of Payments

BOP Current Account ………………………………………. 1 21

BOP Capital and Financial Account (contd.) ………………. 22

II- International Investment Position (IIP) 2 23

III- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) 3 24

IV- External Liquidity

NIR & NFA at Banks ………………………………………. 4 25

V- External Debt

External Debt by Type …………………………………........ 5 26

External Debt Indicators …………………………………….

External Debt by Debtor …………………………………….

6

7

27

28

VI- Exchange Rate Developments

Foreign Exchange Rates 8 29

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 21

(US$ mn)

2014/2015*(1) 2015/2016*

Trade Balance -10000.9 -9985.9

Exports** 6325.4 4646.1

Petroleum 2769.1 1577.3

Other Exports 3556.3 3068.8

Imports** -16326.3 -14632.0

Petroleum -4003.6 -2809.6

Other Imports -12322.7 -11822.4

Services (Net) 2178.8 1686.8

Receipts 6448.8 5142.9

Transportation, of which : 2677.2 2640.9

Suez Canal 1474.6 1366.4

Travel 2091.8 1725.5

Investment Income 43.6 101.2

Government receipts 583.2 123.2

Other 1053.0 552.1

Payments 4270.0 3456.1

Transportation 396.4 381.5

Travel 827.2 791.5

Investment Income, of which 1830.2 1248.8

Interest Paid 211.5 184.7

Government Expenditures 201.6 183.5

Other 1014.6 850.8

Balance of Goods & Services -7822.1 -8299.1

Transfers 6188.8 4318.8

Private Transfers (Net) 4713.5 4296.9

Official Transfers (Net) 1475.3 21.9

Current Account Balance -1633.3 -3980.3

July / September

Table (1) Balance of Payments


(US$ mn)

2014/2015*(1) 2015/2016*

Capital & Financial Account 387.0 1500.5

Capital Account -22.0 -36.1

Financial Account 409.0 1536.6

Direct Investment Abroad -52.5 -40.3

Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) 1321.3 1385.5

Portfolio Investment Abroad (Net) -33.2 35.4

Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net), of which: 316.0 -1405.8

Bonds 13.6 -1391.9

Other Investment (Net) -1142.6 1561.8

Net Borrowing 546.4 706.7

M&L-Term Loans (Net) -374.7 -678.8

Drawings 532.7 199.5

Repayments -907.4 -878.3

MT-Suppliers' Credit (Net) -8.5 6.4

Drawings 0.7 13.3

Repayments -9.2 -6.9

ST-Suppliers' Credit (Net) 929.6 1379.1

Other Assets -2077.3 185.0

Central Bank 24.9 3.5

Banks 59.2 871.9

Other -2161.4 -690.4

Other Liabilities 388.3 670.1

Central Bank 1.3 1.2

Banks 387.0 668.9

Net Errors & Omissions 1656.3 -1176.9

Overall Balance 410.0 -3656.7

Change in CBE Reserve Assets ,Increase(-) -410.0 3656.7

* Preliminary.

** Include free zones exports and imports. (1) The data was revised following the external debt data and the ministry of petroleum revision.

July / September

Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.)

End of

Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities

Total 47478.6 141121.5 42806.2 140554.6

1-Direct investment 6722.6 91017.7 6682.3 92381.2

2-Portfolio investments 1886.4 6978.6 1474.3 5571.1

Equity security 888.3 1974.4 854.7 1988.5

Debt security 998.1 5004.2 619.6 3582.6

3-Other investments 19321.1 43125.2 18858.0 42602.3

Trade credits 1125.6 1021.1

General government

Short-term

Other sectors 1125.6 1021.1

Long-term

Short-term 1125.6 1021.1

Loans 1314.2 24443.4 1264.6 23855.5

Monetary authorities 56.7 248.4

Use of Fund credit & loans from the Fund

Other long-term 56.7 248.4

Short-term

General government 20769.5 20290.6

Long-term 20769.5 20290.6

Short-term

Banks 1314.2 1091.5 1264.6 1095.9

Long-term 797.8 937.2 774.7 783.7

Short-term 516.4 154.3 489.9 312.2


Long-term 2525.7 2220.6

Short-term

Currency and deposits 18006.9 16295.4 17593.4 16464.5


Long-term 15000.0 15000.0

Short-term

General government

Banks 8170.9 1295.4 7757.4 1464.5


Other assets / Liabilities 1260.8 1261.2


Long-term 1260.8 1261.2

Short-term

General government

Banks

Long-term

Short-term

Other sectors

4-Reserves assets 19548.5 15791.6

*Preliminary

Cen

tral Ba

nk

of E

gyp

t - Extern

al Position

23

(US$ millions)

June 2015* September 2015*

Table (2) International Investment Position (IIP)

24

Country of non-resident issuers Equities long-term debt securities short-term debt securities Total

Bahrain 13.5 7.7 21.2

Cayman Islands 10.0 10.0

China, P.R. 3.0 3.0

Egypt 1.5 1.5

Ethiopia 12.0 12.0

France 9.7 21.7 3.5 34.9

Germany 2.9 47.9 2.9 53.7

India 0.9 0.9

Indonesia 0.7 0.7

Ireland 5.8 5.8

Italy 36.2 0.5 36.7

Japan 11.9 11.9

Jordan 2.0 2.0 4.0

Lebanon 5.2 6.0 0.5 11.7

Luxembourg 9.1 9.1

Kenya 0.1

Kuwait 0.1

Malaysia 16.0 29.0 45.0

Malta 9.6 9.6

Morocco 0.1

Mauritius 10.1 10.1

Mozambique 2.9 2.9

Nigeria 10.2 10.2

Qatar 67.2 16.5 83.7

Saudi Arabia 335.7 26.9 2.2 364.8

Singapore 6.2 1.3 7.5

Sudan 3.3 3.3

Switzerland 32.2 32.2

Serian Arab Republic 10.0 10.0

Tunisia 1.6 1.6

Turkey 5.2 0.2 5.4

United Arab Emirates 9.1 35.0 2.3 46.4

United Kingdom 42.4 38.3 14.7 95.4

United States 26.8 186.8 51.0 264.6

Other countries (unallocated) 240.8 23.4 264.2

Total 854.7 495.1 124.5 1474.3

Table(3) Egypt's Coordinated Portofolio Investement Survey (CPIS) at end of Sept. 2015

(US$ millions)

Breakdown of portfolio investment Assets by country of residence of the Issuers

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position

End of

June

2013

Sept.

2013

June

2014

Sept.

2014

June

2015

Sept.

2015

Net International Reserves (1-2) 14936 18709 16687 16872 20082 16335

1- Gross Official Reserves 14960 18734 16710 16895 20104 16358

Gold 2463 2463 2662 2508 2420 2337

SDRs 1233 1257 1274 1229 1168 1167

Foreign Currencies 11181 14929 12695 13082 16453 12794

Loans to IMF 83 85 79 76 63 60

2- Reserve Liabilities 24 25 23 23 22 23

Banks' Net Foreign Assets 12121 11850 11452 11006 3481 1940

Assets 16885 16670 16224 16165 11450 10577

Liabilities 4764 4820 4772 5159 7969 8637

(US$ mn)

Table (4) Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets at Banks

Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Eg

yp

t - Ex

terna

l Po

sition

25

2015 +201420132012201120102009End of Sept.

46148.144854.247017.134719.933997.934699.932399.2Total External Debt*

43350.340968.843009.331775.331012.031829.029970.31- Medium& long term debt :

5683.17375.29085.210626.312086.712897.914067.8Rescheduled bilateral debt **

4509.95172.55843.66576.47092.87235.67538.0 ODA

1173.22202.73241.64049.94993.95662.36529.8 Non-ODA5572.95844.96169.65239.95208.14976.55021.5Other bilateral debt

2701.23420.73738.14068.04155.34072.54152.9 Paris Club countries

2871.72424.22431.51171.91052.8904.0868.6 Other countries

12388.512116.412028.311356.310794.610405.08513.2International & regional institutions

1135.0513.4591.3416.7409.5404.3367.6Suppliers' & buyers' credits

3545.86098.96117.62625.22495.63087.91916.6Egyptian bonds & notes

15000.09000.09000.01500.00.00.00.0Arab International Bank's deposit

25.020.017.310.917.557.483.6Private sector debt (non-guaranteed)

2797.83885.44007.82944.62985.92870.92428.92- Short-term debt

1464.51453.32371.8943.0947.41121.41326.6 Deposits

1333.32432.11636.02001.62038.51749.51102.3 Other short-term facilities

Source: Central Bank of Egypt.

+ Provisional

* The difference from World Bank Data is in short-term debt .

** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, 1991.

Table (5) External Debt by Type

(US$ mn)

Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Eg

yp

t - Ex

terna

l Po

sition

26

(%)

2014/2015+2013/20142012/20132011/20122010/20112009/2010 July / Sept.

471.4351.1462.3279.5279.2271.1External Debt / Exports (G & S) %

2351.61115.81093.61294.31214.7995.1Debt Service (Principal & Interest) (US$ mn.) *

24.08.710.810.410.07.8Debt Service / Exports (G & S) %

16.75.95.97.57.56.2Debt Service / Current Receipts %

1.91.51.81.71.91.8Interest / Exports (G & S) %

12.613.215.411.412..314.4External Debt / GDP (at current market prices)

6.18.78.58.58.88.3Short-term Debt / total external debt

17.123.021.419.612.48.1Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves

474.3493.1516.9391.5390.3411.1External Debt per capita (US$)

+ Provisional.

* includes interest payments on US dollar-denominated bonds and notes holding by nonresedents

Table (6) External Debt Indicators

Cen

tral Ban

k of E

gypt - E

xternal P

osition27

28

(US$ mn)

End of June 2015 % Sept. 2015 % Change (-) %

External Debt 48062.9 100.0 46148.1 100.0 (1914.8) (4.0)

Total Medium- & Long-Term 45487.6 94.6 43350.3 93.9 (2137.3) (4.7)

Total Short-Term 2575.3 5.4 2797.8 6.1 222.5 8.6

Central & Local Government 25707.2 53.5 23836.4 51.7 (1870.8) (7.3)

Medium- & Long-Term 25707.2 53.5 23836.4 51.7 (1870.8) (7.3) Bonds & Notes 4937.7 10.3 3545.8 7.7 (1391.9) (28.2) Loans 20769.5 43.2 20290.6 44.0 (478.9) (2.3) Currency and Deposits

Other Liabilities

Short-Term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Money Market Instruments

Loans

Currency and Deposits

Other Liabilities

Monetary Authority 16317.5 33.9 16509.6 35.7 192.1 1.2

Medium- & Long-Term 16317.5 33.9 16509.6 35.7 192.1 1.2 Bonds & Notes

Loans 56.7 0.1 248.4 0.5 191.7 338.1 Currency and Deposits 15000.0 31.2 15000.0 32.5 0.0 0.0

Other Liabilities **

1260.8 2.6 1261.2 2.7 0.4 0.0

Short-Term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Money Market Instruments

Loans

Currency and Deposits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Liabilities

Banks 2386.9 4.9 2560.4 5.6 173.5 7.3

Medium- & Long-Term Loans 937.2 1.9 783.7 1.7 (153.5) (16.4) Bonds & Notes

Loans 937.2 1.9 783.7 1.7 (153.5) (16.4) Currency and Deposits

Other Liabilities

Short-Term Loans 1449.7 3.0 1776.7 3.9 327.0 22.6 Money Market Instruments

Loans 154.4 0.3 312.2 0.7 157.8 102.2 Currency and Deposits 1295.3 2.7 1464.5 3.2 169.2 13.1 Other Liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Sectors 3651.3 7.7 3241.7 7.0 (409.6) (11.2)

Medium- & Long-Term 2525.7 5.3 2220.6 4.8 (305.1) (12.1) Loans from Direct Investors

Bonds & Notes

Trade Credits

Loans 2525.7 5.3 2220.6 4.8 (305.1) (12.1) Currency and Deposits

Other Liabilities

Short-Term 1125.6 2.4 1021.1 2.2 (104.5) (9.3) Loans from Direct Investors

Money Market Instruments

Trade Credits 1125.6 2.4 1021.1 2.2 (104.5) (9.3) Loans

Currency and Deposits

Other Liabilities

* Provisional.

** Representing US$ 1,383.62 million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 MM.


Table (7) External Debt by Debtor

*

First: Interbank Rates *

Minimum

Maximum

Weighted average

Second : Market Rates Buy Sell Buy Sell

US Dollar 7.6061 7.6289 7.8057 7.8301

Euro 8.4527 8.4803 8.7439 8.7744

Pound Sterling 11.9386 11.9773 11.8373 11.8775

Swiss Franc 8.1375 8.1653 8.0050 8.0383

100 Japanese Yens 6.1884 6.2094 6.4896 6.5121

Saudi Riyal 2.0279 2.0347 2.0812 2.0879

Kuwaiti Dinar 25.1227 25.2395 25.8184 25.9120

UAE Dirham 2.0709 2.0771 2.1250 2.1319

Chinese Yuan 1.2250 1.2288 1.2276 1.2320

Source: CBE daily exchange rates.

* The interbank rates were launched on December 23, 2004.

7.7301

7.7301

7.7301

Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Eg

yp

t - Ex

terna

l Po

sition

29

7.5301

7.5301

7.5301

Table (8) Foreign Exchange Rates (In LE per foreign currency unit )

End of June 2015 September 2015


Appendix II

Table Page

I- Medium - and Long -Term External Debt

A- Outstanding Stock …………………………………………………… 1 33

1. Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt ……………………… 2 35

a. Paris Club Bilateral Debt ………………………………………….. 3 37

(1) Rescheduled Debt……………………………………………… 4 38

(2) Non- Rescheduled Debt…………………………………........... 5 39

b. Supplier's Credit………………………………………………........ 6 41

c. Other Bilateral Debt…………………………………………........ 7 42

d. Multilateral Institutions…………………………………………… 8 43

2. Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed ……………………………….......... 9 45

B. Outstanding External Short-Term Debt ……………………………........ 10 46

C. Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans & Deposits …. 11 47

II- Projected Medium - and Long -Term External Debt Service

Public and Publicly Guaranteed……………………………………………. 12 48

1. Paris Club Debt…………...…………………………………….......... 13 50

a. Rescheduled Debt ………………………………………….…....... 14 52

b. Non-Rescheduled Debt………… ………………………………... 15 53

2. Supplier's Credit………………………………………………........ 16 54

3. Other Bilateral Debt……………………………………………......... 17 55

4. Multilateral Institutions………………………………………............. 18 56

5. Projected Sovereign Notes ………………………………………....... 19 58

6. Projected Saudi Bond ………………………………………………... 20 59

7. Projected Euro-Medium Term Notes (E.M.T.N)……………………. 21 60

8. Projected Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N)…………………... 22 61

9. Projected Deposits ..………………………………………………… 23 62

III- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar

24

63


2012 2013 2014 20151- Medium-and Long-Term Public

& Publicly Guaranteed Debt 31.764.51 42.992.02 40.948.85 43.325.29

A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 15.092.35 13.401.91 11.300.92 9.513.40

1-Rescheduled Debt 10.626.35 9.085.24 7.375.25 5.683.05

2-Non-Rescheduled Debt 4.466.00 4.316.67 3.925.67 3.830.35

B- Supplier's Credit 18.71 12.70 8.45 5.88

C. Other Bilateral Debt 1.171.92 2.431.49 2.424.25 2.871.65

D. Multilateral Institutions (1) 11.356.32 12.028.31 12.116.35 12.388.53

E. Bonds &Notes 2.625.21 6.117.61 6.098.88 3.545.83 1-Guaranteed Notes 1.250.00 1.250.00 1.250.00 0.00 2-Sovereign Notes 875.21 867.61 848.88 785.83 3-Saudi Bond 500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 4-Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) (2) 0.00 3.500.00 3.500.00 1.000.00 5-Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) (3) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.260.00

F. Deposits (4) 1.500.00 9.000.00 9.000.00 15.000.00

2- Medium and Long-Term

Private Sector Non-Guaranteed 10.85 17.29 20.00 25.00

3- Short-Term Debt 2.944.55 4.007.76 3.885.36 2.797.78

Deposits (Non-Residents) 942.96 871.74 953.27 1.464.53

Trade Credits 2.001.59 1.636.02 2.432.09 1.021.08

Qatar Deposits 0.00 1.500.00 500.00 0.00

Loans 0.00 0.00 0.00 312.17

Grand Total 34.719.91 47.017.07 44.854.21 46.148.07 Using end of period exchange rate.

(1) Includes US$ 1,261 million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 MN.

(2) Representing the second subscription of Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) amounted US$ 1000 million due in July 2016 .

(3) Representing Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) with nominal value US$ 1500 million ( non-residents' subscriptions amounted US$ 1260 million).

(4) Representing Saudi, Libya, United Arab Emirates & Kuwait deposits amounted US$ 5000, 2000 ,4000 and 4000 million respectively .

Figure 1-1

(US$ million)

Table ( 1 )

Outstanding Stock as at End of September

Total Debt

25.5

30.5

35.5

40.5

45.5

50.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

( US$bn )

External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of September

C

entra

l Ban

k o

f Egyp

t - Extern

al P

ositio

n3

4Figure 1-2

Paris Club Bilateral Debt21.96%

Multilateral Institutions28.60%

Bonds & Notes 8.18%

Deposits34.62%

Other Bilateral Debt6.63%

Supplier's Credit0.01%

Medium-and Long-TermPublic and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Outstanding Stock as at End of September 2015

Figure 1-2


2012 2013 2014 2015

Creditor Countries

Germany 3.330.97 3.476.02 3.195.11 2.850.32

Japan 4.026.09 3.021.26 2.525.35 2.183.67

United States 2.666.45 2.419.70 2.160.88 1.902.06

France 2.849.78 2.579.76 1.973.55 1.393.03

Turkey 0.00 1.000.00 1.000.00 1.000.00

Kuwait 933.76 971.46 960.72 917.26

United Arab emirates 22.60 22.57 22.82 519.03

Italy 341.93 281.82 212.72 355.21

China 136.80 341.73 334.31 332.29

Spain 535.79 473.76 378.46 273.98

Denmark 244.47 230.24 186.30 143.75

Saudi Arabia 78.76 95.73 106.41 103.07

Switzerland 287.45 237.30 162.01 95.73

Austria 274.85 232.29 162.06 94.43

The Netherlands 82.50 84.21 76.02 65.22

Canada 152.53 126.59 97.15 62.71

United Kingdom 131.10 108.03 82.53 50.47

Australia 114.56 82.00 53.87 23.97

Belgium 45.44 39.57 28.93 17.34

Sweden 22.33 18.08 11.32 5.25

Norway 4.82 3.98 3.10 2.14

Multilateral Institutions 11.356.32 12.028.31 12.116.35 12.388.53{2}

Deposits, Bonds and Notes

Deposits 1.500.00 9.000.00 9.000.00 15.000.00{3}

Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.260.00

Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 0.00 3500.00 3500.00 1000.00

Sovereign Notes 875.21 867.61 848.88 785.83

Saudi Bond 500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00

Guaranteed Notes 1.250.00 1.250.00 1.250.00 0.00

Grand Total 31.764.51 42.992.02 40.948.85 43.325.29

(1) Using end of period exchange rate.

(2) Includes US$ 1,261 million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries, Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 MN.


Total Debt

Table ( 2 )

Medium and Long-Term

Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt


(US$ million){1}

Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Eg

yp

t - Ex

terna

l Po

sition

36

Figure 2

Multilateral Institutions29%

Other Countries7%

France3 %

United States4 %Germany

7%

Japan5%

Bonds & Notes8%

Turkey2%

Deposits35%

Medium and Long-TermPublic and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Outstanding Stock as at End of September 2015


2012 2013 2014 2015

Germany 3.330.98 3.476.03 3.195.10 2.850.32

Japan 4.015.76 3.016.32 2.523.91 2.183.67

United States 2.666.45 2.419.70 2.160.87 1.902.06

France 2.849.78 2.579.75 1.973.53 1.393.03

Italy 341.79 281.71 212.65 355.17

Spain 535.79 473.76 378.46 273.98

Denmark 244.47 230.24 186.31 143.75

Switzerland 287.45 237.30 162.01 95.73

Austria 274.85 232.29 162.07 94.43

The Netherlands 82.50 84.21 76.02 65.22

Canada 144.29 118.94 90.24 56.87

United Kingdom 131.09 108.04 82.53 50.47

Australia 114.56 82.00 53.87 23.97

Belgium 45.44 39.56 28.93 17.34

Sweden 22.33 18.08 11.32 5.25

Norway 4.82 3.98 3.10 2.14

Grand Total 15.092.35 13.401.91 11.300.92 9.513.40

{1} This table sums up tables 4 and 5.

{2} Using end of period exchange rate.

Country

Table ( 3 ) {1}


Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country

Paris Club Bilateral Debt


Total Debt

(US$ million){2}

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

( U

S$

bn

)

Medium and Long-TermPublic & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Paris Club Bilateral DebtOutstanding Stock as at End of September

Figure 3


2012 2013 2014 2015

United States 2.219.08 2.002.00 1.772.85 1.543.71

Germany 1.805.64 1.843.76 1.665.17 1.429.58

Japan 2.810.93 2.052.03 1.646.71 1.336.03

France 1.998.57 1.689.19 1.180.07 670.23

Spain 372.06 303.84 228.97 148.97

Italy 230.66 189.67 143.87 95.17

Austria 270.27 229.53 159.75 90.42

Switzerland 270.46 221.62 149.32 83.53

Denmark 108.08 102.91 85.88 66.68

The Netherlands 82.50 84.21 76.02 65.22

Canada 144.29 118.94 90.24 56.87

United Kingdom 131.06 108.01 82.51 50.46

Australia 114.56 82.00 53.87 23.97

Belgium 41.14 35.55 25.65 14.84

Sweden 22.23 18.00 11.27 5.23

Norway 4.82 3.98 3.10 2.14

Grand Total 10.626.35 9.085.24 7.375.25 5.683.05


(US$ million){1}

CountryTotal Debt

Table ( 4 )




Rescheduled Debt


0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

( U

S$

bn

)


Paris Club Bilateral DebtRescheduled Debt


Figure 4


2012 2013 2014

Germany 1.525.34 1.632.27 1.529.93 1.420.74

Japan 1.204.83 964.29 877.20 847.64

France 851.21 890.56 793.46 722.80

United States 447.37 417.70 388.02 358.35

Italy 111.13 92.04 68.78 260.00

Spain 163.73 169.92 149.49 125.01

Denmark 136.39 127.33 100.43 77.07

Switzerland 16.99 15.68 12.69 12.20

Austria 4.58 2.76 2.32 4.01

Belgium 4.30 4.01 3.28 2.50

Sweden 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.02

United Kingdom 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01

Grand Total 4.466.00 4.316.67 3.925.67 3.830.35


Total Debt

2015

Table ( 5 )

Medium and Long-TermPublic & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country

Country


Non-Rescheduled Debt


(US$ million){1}

3.400

3.600

3.800

4.000

4.200

4.400

4.600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

( U

S$

mn

)


Paris Club Bilateral Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt


Figure 5-1

Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Egyp

t - Extern

al P

ositio

n4

0

Rescheduled Debt60%

Non-Rescheduled Debt40%

Medium and Long-TermPublic and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Paris Club Bilateral DebtOutstanding Stock as at End of September 2015

Figure 5-2


2012 2013 2014 2015

Canada 8.24 7.64 6.91 5.84

Italy 0.14 0.11 0.07 0.04

Japan 10.33 4.95 1.47 0.00

Grand Total 18.71 12.70 8.45 5.88


(US$ million){1}

CountryTotal Debt

Table ( 6 )

Supplier's Credit



Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

( U

S$m

n )

Medium and Long-TermPublic & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country

Supplier's CreditOutstandingStockas at End of September

Figure 6


2012 2013 2014 2015

Turkey 0.00 1.000.00 1.000.00 1.000.00

Kuwait 933.76 971.46 960.72 917.26

United Arab Emirates 22.60 22.57 22.81 519.03

China 136.80 341.73 334.31 332.29

Saudi Arabia 78.76 95.73 106.41 103.07

Grand Total 1.171.92 2.431.49 2.424.25 2.871.65


Country

Table ( 7 )



Other Bilateral Debt


Total Debt

(US$ million){1}

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

( U

S$

mn

)


Other Bilateral DebtOutstanding Stock as at End of September

Figure 7


2012 2013 2014 2015

IBRD 3.006.42 3.325.79 3.770.72 4.313.22

European Investment Bank 1.829.05 1.975.80 1.808.32 1.630.18

African Development Bank 1.409.85 1.547.60 1.561.04 1.523.33

Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 1.347.58 1.489.18 1.521.99 1.503.97

IMF 1.385.58 1.378.30 1.332.03 1.261.19 {2}

IDA 1.264.87 1.199.43 1.095.82 968.93

Arab Monetary Fund 343.54 352.16 256.06 334.34

Islamic Development Bank 183.94 223.75 231.21 287.99

OPEC 115.53 153.07 171.37 213.35

African Development Fund 227.25 211.98 194.00 175.34

International Fund for Agricultural Development 107.11 106.25 102.01 99.28

Arab Trade Financing Program 35.60 65.00 64.90 49.11

Clean Technology Fund 0.00 0.00 6.88 28.30

Arab International Bank 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Grand Total 11.356.32 12.028.31 12.116.35 12.388.53


(2) Representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 MN.

CreditorTotal Debt

Table ( 8 )


Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Multilateral Institutions


(US$ million){1}

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

( U

S$

mn

)


Multilateral InstitutionsOutstanding Stock as at End of September

Figure 8-1

Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Eg

yp

t - Ex

terna

l Po

sition

44

IDA8%

EuropeanInvestment Bank

13%

AFESD12%

Others10%

IBRD35 %

African Development Bank12%

IMF10%


Multilateral InstitutionsOutstanding Stock as at End of September 2015

Figure 8 - 2


2012 2013 2014 2015

Multilateral Institutions 10.85 17.29 20.00 25.00

Grand Total 10.85 17.29 20.00 25.00


CountryTotal Debt

Table ( 9 )


Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor


(US$ million){1}

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

( U

S$

mn

)

Medium and Long-TermPrivate Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt


Figure 9


2012 2013 2014 2015

Deposits (Non-Residents) 942.96 871.74 953.27 1.464.53

Trade Credits 2.001.59 1.636.02 2.432.09 1.021.08

Loans 0.00 0.00 0.00 312.17

Qatar Deposits 0.00 1.500.00 500.00 0.00

Grand Total 2.944.55 4.007.76 3.885.36 2.797.78

Type

Short-Term Debt

Table ( 10 )


Total Debt

(US$ million)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

( U

S$m

n )

Short-Term DebtOutstanding Stock as at End of September

Figure 10



Signed Amount Disbursed Undisbursed

1- Medium and Long-Term Public

& Publicly Guaranteed Debt 20.644.61 15.489.67 5.177.04

A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 1.433.72 332.16 1.101.56

Non-Rescheduled Debt 1.433.72 332.16 1.101.56

B. Other Bilateral Debt 1.412.08 481.00 931.08

C. Multilateral Institutions 3.798.81 676.51 3.144.40

D. Deposits 14.000.00 14.000.00 0.00

2- Medium and Long-Term Private 64.88 61.88 3.00

Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt

Grand Total 20.709.49 15.551.55 5.180.04


Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposit

(US$ million){1}

Table ( 11 )

from 1/7/2012 to 30/6/2015

Figure 11

0.00

1.000.00

2.000.00

3.000.00

4.000.00

5.000.00

6.000.00

7.000.00

8.000.00

9.000.00

10.000.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Signed Loans and Deposit Disbursed Undisbursed

Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amountsfor Signed Loans and Deposits

from 1/7/2009 to 30/6/2015

( U

S$m

n )

48

Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2015/H2 630.49 242.10 872.59 2033/H2 103.11 18.40 121.512016/H1 1561.13 382.79 1.943.92 2034/H1 98.74 17.75 116.49

2016/H2 (2)3117.42 390.74 3.508.16 2034/H2 91.54 17.13 108.67

2017/H1(3)

2283.19 333.72 2.616.91 2035/H1 88.11 16.60 104.722017/H2 1829.52 336.31 2.165.82 2035/H2 86.80 16.11 102.92

2018/H1(4)3912.00 298.64 4.210.64 2036/H1 80.24 15.64 95.88

2018/H2(5)7161.06 283.33 7.444.39 2036/H2 75.17 15.19 90.35

2019/H1(6)3128.73 246.54 3.375.27 2037/H1 65.13 14.75 79.88

2019/H2 1167.89 217.87 1.385.76 2037/H2 63.59 14.35 77.95

2020/H1(7)

3490.10 199.83 3.689.93 2038/H1 51.04 13.97 65.002020/H2 1000.60 158.61 1.159.21 2038/H2 32.37 13.78 46.152021/H1 895.15 142.10 1.037.25 2039/H1 19.70 13.66 33.352021/H2 859.43 138.80 998.23 2039/H2 18.96 13.59 32.55

2022/H1 650.49 124.88 775.37 2040/H1(9)384.58 13.52 398.10

2022/H2 637.51 123.93 761.44 2040/H2 17.00 0.84 17.842023/H1 616.05 113.75 729.80 2041/H1 15.52 0.77 16.292023/H2 606.30 112.27 718.57 2041/H2 15.08 0.72 15.802024/H1 590.67 102.90 693.56 2042/H1 13.65 0.67 14.322024/H2 593.94 100.93 694.87 2042/H2 11.06 0.62 11.68

2025/H1(8)

1813.34 92.13 1.905.46 2043/H1 10.78 0.58 11.362025/H2 549.39 52.69 602.08 2043/H2 10.02 0.54 10.562026/H1 526.10 44.82 570.92 2044/H1 7.29 0.50 7.802026/H2 507.33 41.97 549.31 2044/H2 7.02 0.48 7.502027/H1 269.85 35.79 305.64 2045/H1 6.68 0.45 7.132027/H2 277.61 35.28 312.88 2045/H2 6.68 0.43 7.112028/H1 237.32 31.77 269.09 2046/H1 5.98 0.40 6.382028/H2 238.59 30.83 269.42 2046/H2 4.46 0.39 4.842029/H1 208.91 28.24 237.15 2047/H1 3.64 0.37 4.012029/H2 205.86 27.19 233.06 2047/H2 3.43 0.36 3.792030/H1 177.05 25.30 202.35 2048/H1 2.92 0.34 3.262030/H2 234.71 24.28 258.99 2048/H2 2.58 0.34 2.922031/H1 149.79 23.04 172.83 2049/H1 0.76 0.32 1.082031/H2 144.06 22.00 166.06 2049/H2 0.76 0.32 1.082032/H1 142.39 21.06 163.44 2050/H1 0.65 0.32 0.962032/H2 128.30 20.10 148.40 2050/H2 0.40 0.32 0.722033/H1 116.37 19.20 135.57

Grand Total 42.064.10 (10) 4.850.21 (11) 46.914.31

(1) The exchange rate of September 30, 2015.

(2) Includes US$ 1000.00 million Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) maturing 2016.

(3) Includes US$ 500.00 million Saudi bond maturing 2017.

(4) Includes US$ 2598.67 million deposits maturing 2018.



(7) Includes US$ 418.71 million sovereign notes & US$ 2101.67 million deposits maturing 2020.

(8) Includes US$ 1260.00 million Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) maturing 2025.

(9) Includes US$ 367.12 million sovereign notes maturing 2040.

(10) Excludes US$ 1,261.19 million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 MN.

(11) Includes US$ 22.23 million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation.

(US$ million)(1)as of October 1, 2015

Table ( 12 )Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed

External Debt Service


Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Eg

yp

t - Ex

terna

l Po

sition

49

Figure 12

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049

Principal Interest Total

Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of October 1 , 2015US$ mn

50

Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total

2015/H2 115.37 27.66 143.03 2033/H2 34.98 1.72 36.702016/H1 765.81 85.03 850.83 2034/H1 33.67 1.59 35.262016/H2 814.85 88.63 903.48 2034/H2 31.39 1.47 32.862017/H1 402.02 72.92 474.94 2035/H1 30.59 1.36 31.952017/H2 433.60 76.71 510.32 2035/H2 29.28 1.25 30.532018/H1 420.49 63.41 483.90 2036/H1 27.37 1.15 28.522018/H2 452.27 66.59 518.86 2036/H2 26.48 1.05 27.532019/H1 411.29 53.51 464.80 2037/H1 25.48 0.95 26.442019/H2 459.26 56.16 515.42 2037/H2 24.68 0.86 25.542020/H1 427.83 44.32 472.15 2038/H1 23.08 0.78 23.852020/H2 452.46 46.06 498.52 2038/H2 20.36 0.70 21.052021/H1 401.36 34.97 436.33 2039/H1 17.33 0.62 17.962021/H2 399.50 35.97 435.47 2039/H2 16.63 0.56 17.202022/H1 232.48 26.15 258.62 2040/H1 15.73 0.50 16.242022/H2 254.18 28.63 282.81 2040/H2 15.27 0.45 15.722023/H1 233.20 21.77 254.97 2041/H1 13.79 0.39 14.182023/H2 250.06 23.56 273.62 2041/H2 13.35 0.34 13.692024/H1 226.95 17.34 244.30 2042/H1 11.92 0.30 12.222024/H2 245.86 18.58 264.45 2042/H2 9.32 0.26 9.582025/H1 227.35 12.93 240.28 2043/H1 9.05 0.22 9.272025/H2 250.17 13.50 263.67 2043/H2 8.74 0.19 8.932026/H1 231.98 8.53 240.50 2044/H1 6.47 0.16 6.632026/H2 247.05 8.23 255.29 2044/H2 6.20 0.13 6.332027/H1 62.74 3.95 66.69 2045/H1 5.86 0.11 5.972027/H2 79.14 5.28 84.42 2045/H2 5.86 0.09 5.952028/H1 53.93 3.49 57.42 2046/H1 5.16 0.07 5.232028/H2 68.16 4.23 72.39 2046/H2 3.64 0.05 3.692029/H1 51.96 3.11 55.06 2047/H1 2.82 0.04 2.862029/H2 58.82 3.38 62.20 2047/H2 2.61 0.03 2.642030/H1 47.69 2.73 50.42 2048/H1 2.36 0.02 2.382030/H2 52.68 2.75 55.42 2048/H2 2.33 0.01 2.352031/H1 41.92 2.40 44.33 2049/H1 0.51 0.01 0.522031/H2 41.38 2.26 43.64 2049/H2 0.51 0.00 0.522032/H1 40.54 2.12 42.66 2050/H1 0.40 0.00 0.402032/H2 39.13 1.98 41.11 2050/H2 0.40 0.00 0.402033/H1 36.31 1.85 38.16

Grand Total 9.513.40 988.14 10.501.54{1} The exchange rate of September 30, 2015 .

(US$ million){1}

as of October 1, 2015


External Debt Service

Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed

Table ( 13 )


Figure 13 Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Eg

yp

t - Ex

terna

l Po

sition

51

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2050


Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of October 1 , 2015

Paris Club Bilateral DebtUS$ mn

52


2015/H2 0.84 1.68 2.52 2021/H2 279.07 21.69 300.77

2016/H1 621.38 64.52 685.90 2022/H1 145.45 18.21 163.67

2016/H2 642.45 59.34 701.79 2022/H2 147.71 16.37 164.07

2017/H1 269.50 54.91 324.41 2023/H1 149.98 14.77 164.76

2017/H2 272.86 50.99 323.86 2023/H2 152.30 12.90 165.20

2018/H1 286.64 48.06 334.71 2024/H1 154.46 11.22 165.68

2018/H2 290.09 43.98 334.07 2024/H2 152.26 9.35 161.61

2019/H1 291.90 40.74 332.63 2025/H1 154.52 7.57 162.09

2019/H2 295.44 36.67 332.11 2025/H2 156.98 5.65 162.63

2020/H1 297.33 33.30 330.63 2026/H1 159.30 3.90 163.20

2020/H2 300.96 29.33 330.29 2026/H2 158.48 1.76 160.24

2021/H1 303.14 25.72 328.86


(US$ million){1}

Table ( 14 )


External Debt Service as of October 1, 2015


Rescheduled Debt


53

Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total2015/H2 114.53 25.98 140.51 2033/H2 34.98 1.72 36.702016/H1 144.43 20.50 164.93 2034/H1 33.67 1.59 35.262016/H2 172.40 29.29 201.69 2034/H2 31.39 1.47 32.862017/H1 132.52 18.01 150.53 2035/H1 30.59 1.36 31.952017/H2 160.74 25.72 186.46 2035/H2 29.28 1.25 30.532018/H1 133.85 15.34 149.19 2036/H1 27.37 1.15 28.522018/H2 162.18 22.61 184.78 2036/H2 26.48 1.05 27.532019/H1 119.39 12.78 132.17 2037/H1 25.48 0.95 26.442019/H2 163.82 19.48 183.30 2037/H2 24.68 0.86 25.542020/H1 130.50 11.02 141.52 2038/H1 23.08 0.78 23.852020/H2 151.50 16.73 168.23 2038/H2 20.36 0.70 21.052021/H1 98.22 9.25 107.47 2039/H1 17.33 0.62 17.962021/H2 120.43 14.28 134.71 2039/H2 16.63 0.56 17.202022/H1 87.02 7.94 94.96 2040/H1 15.73 0.50 16.242022/H2 106.47 12.26 118.74 2040/H2 15.27 0.45 15.722023/H1 83.21 7.00 90.21 2041/H1 13.79 0.39 14.182023/H2 97.76 10.66 108.42 2041/H2 13.35 0.34 13.692024/H1 72.50 6.12 78.62 2042/H1 11.92 0.30 12.222024/H2 93.60 9.23 102.83 2042/H2 9.32 0.26 9.582025/H1 72.83 5.36 78.19 2043/H1 9.05 0.22 9.272025/H2 93.20 7.85 101.04 2043/H2 8.74 0.19 8.932026/H1 72.68 4.63 77.30 2044/H1 6.47 0.16 6.632026/H2 88.58 6.47 95.05 2044/H2 6.20 0.13 6.332027/H1 62.74 3.95 66.69 2045/H1 5.86 0.11 5.972027/H2 79.14 5.28 84.42 2045/H2 5.86 0.09 5.952028/H1 53.93 3.49 57.42 2046/H1 5.16 0.07 5.232028/H2 68.16 4.23 72.39 2046/H2 3.64 0.05 3.692029/H1 51.96 3.11 55.06 2047/H1 2.82 0.04 2.862029/H2 58.82 3.38 62.20 2047/H2 2.61 0.03 2.642030/H1 47.69 2.73 50.42 2048/H1 2.36 0.02 2.382030/H2 52.68 2.75 55.42 2048/H2 2.33 0.01 2.352031/H1 41.92 2.40 44.33 2049/H1 0.51 0.01 0.522031/H2 41.38 2.26 43.64 2049/H2 0.51 0.00 0.522032/H1 40.54 2.12 42.66 2050/H1 0.40 0.00 0.402032/H2 39.13 1.98 41.11 2050/H2 0.40 0.00 0.402033/H1 36.31 1.85 38.16



(US$ million){1}




Non-Rescheduled Debt

Table ( 15 )


Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total2015/H2 0.04 0.00 0.04 2027/H2 0.13 0.00 0.132016/H1 0.15 0.00 0.15 2028/H1 0.13 0.00 0.132016/H2 0.15 0.00 0.15 2028/H2 0.13 0.00 0.132017/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2029/H1 0.13 0.00 0.132017/H2 0.13 0.00 0.13 2029/H2 0.13 0.00 0.132018/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2030/H1 0.13 0.00 0.132018/H2 0.13 0.00 0.13 2030/H2 0.13 0.00 0.132019/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2031/H1 0.13 0.00 0.132019/H2 0.13 0.00 0.13 2031/H2 0.13 0.00 0.132020/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2032/H1 0.13 0.00 0.132020/H2 0.13 0.00 0.13 2032/H2 0.13 0.00 0.132021/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2033/H1 0.13 0.00 0.132021/H2 0.13 0.00 0.13 2033/H2 0.13 0.00 0.132022/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2034/H1 0.13 0.00 0.132022/H2 0.13 0.00 0.13 2034/H2 0.13 0.00 0.132023/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2035/H1 0.13 0.00 0.132023/H2 0.13 0.00 0.13 2035/H2 0.13 0.00 0.132024/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2036/H1 0.13 0.00 0.132024/H2 0.13 0.00 0.13 2036/H2 0.13 0.00 0.132025/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2037/H1 0.13 0.00 0.132025/H2 0.13 0.00 0.13 2037/H2 0.04 0.00 0.042026/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2038/H1 0.04 0.00 0.042026/H2 0.13 0.00 0.13 2038/H2 0.04 0.00 0.042027/H1 0.13 0.00 0.13 2039/H1 0.04 0.00 0.04

Grand Total 5.88 0.00 5.88{1} The exchange rate of September 30, 2015 .

Supplier's Credit


(US$ million){1}

Table ( 16 )

Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly GuaranteedExternal Debt Service

55


2015/H2 227.24 20.26 247.50 2027/H1 26.80 1.95 28.75

2016/H1 275.26 30.40 305.66 2027/H2 25.48 1.58 27.07

2016/H2 275.86 28.74 304.60 2028/H1 22.99 1.23 24.22

2017/H1 301.96 26.68 328.64 2028/H2 11.98 0.91 12.89

2017/H2 284.45 24.69 309.13 2029/H1 5.18 0.76 5.94

2018/H1 359.73 22.49 382.22 2029/H2 5.17 0.71 5.88

2018/H2 93.90 16.58 110.48 2030/H1 5.17 0.65 5.83

2019/H1 105.89 14.81 120.70 2030/H2 5.17 0.60 5.78

2019/H2 97.91 13.10 111.00 2031/H1 5.17 0.55 5.72

2020/H1 106.87 11.27 118.13 2031/H2 5.27 0.50 5.77

2020/H2 84.88 9.65 94.54 2032/H1 5.27 0.45 5.72

2021/H1 54.16 8.15 62.32 2032/H2 5.27 0.39 5.67

2021/H2 41.26 7.55 48.81 2033/H1 4.35 0.34 4.69

2022/H1 51.42 6.96 58.37 2033/H2 3.80 0.30 4.10

2022/H2 37.95 6.39 44.34 2034/H1 3.80 0.26 4.06

2023/H1 48.74 5.85 54.59 2034/H2 3.80 0.22 4.03

2023/H2 36.30 5.32 41.62 2035/H1 3.80 0.18 3.99

2024/H1 47.99 4.80 52.79 2035/H2 3.80 0.15 3.95

2024/H2 36.01 4.28 40.29 2036/H1 2.15 0.11 2.26

2025/H1 46.96 3.77 50.73 2036/H2 2.15 0.09 2.24

2025/H2 35.00 3.26 38.27 2037/H1 2.15 0.06 2.21

2026/H1 32.04 2.76 34.81 2037/H2 2.15 0.04 2.19

2026/H2 26.80 2.31 29.11 2038/H1 2.15 0.02 2.17

Grand Total 2.871.65 292.14 3.163.79

{1} The exchange rate of September 30, 2015 .

(US$ million){1}

Other Bilateral Debt



Table ( 17 )


56


2015/H2 187.84 43.09 230.94 2033/H2 64.19 3.77 67.962016/H1 419.91 98.02 517.93 2034/H1 61.14 3.28 64.412016/H2 426.57 87.09 513.66 2034/H2 56.22 2.82 59.042017/H1 479.09 83.00 562.09 2035/H1 53.59 2.44 56.032017/H2 511.33 78.91 590.25 2035/H2 53.59 2.10 55.692018/H1 532.98 74.45 607.43 2036/H1 50.59 1.76 52.352018/H2 514.76 69.93 584.69 2036/H2 46.40 1.43 47.842019/H1 511.76 65.49 577.25 2037/H1 37.37 1.11 38.482019/H2 510.59 61.19 571.78 2037/H2 36.72 0.83 37.552020/H1 434.89 56.98 491.87 2038/H1 25.77 0.55 26.322020/H2 463.13 53.27 516.40 2038/H2 11.98 0.46 12.442021/H1 439.50 49.34 488.84 2039/H1 2.33 0.41 2.742021/H2 418.54 45.65 464.18 2039/H2 2.33 0.41 2.732022/H1 366.46 42.15 408.61 2040/H1 1.73 0.40 2.132022/H2 345.24 39.28 384.53 2040/H2 1.73 0.39 2.122023/H1 333.98 36.50 370.48 2041/H1 1.73 0.38 2.112023/H2 319.81 33.76 353.56 2041/H2 1.73 0.38 2.112024/H1 315.59 31.12 346.71 2042/H1 1.73 0.37 2.102024/H2 311.93 28.44 340.37 2042/H2 1.73 0.37 2.102025/H1 278.89 25.80 304.69 2043/H1 1.73 0.36 2.092025/H2 264.08 23.30 287.39 2043/H2 1.28 0.35 1.632026/H1 261.95 20.91 282.86 2044/H1 0.82 0.35 1.172026/H2 233.35 18.81 252.16 2044/H2 0.82 0.34 1.172027/H1 180.18 17.27 197.45 2045/H1 0.82 0.34 1.162027/H2 172.85 15.80 188.65 2045/H2 0.82 0.34 1.162028/H1 160.27 14.43 174.70 2046/H1 0.82 0.33 1.152028/H2 158.32 13.07 171.39 2046/H2 0.82 0.33 1.152029/H1 151.64 11.76 163.40 2047/H1 0.82 0.33 1.152029/H2 141.74 10.49 152.23 2047/H2 0.82 0.33 1.152030/H1 124.06 9.29 133.35 2048/H1 0.56 0.32 0.882030/H2 176.73 8.31 185.04 2048/H2 0.25 0.32 0.572031/H1 102.56 7.47 110.03 2049/H1 0.25 0.31 0.572031/H2 97.28 6.62 103.90 2049/H2 0.25 0.32 0.572032/H1 96.45 5.87 102.32 2050/H1 0.25 0.31 0.572032/H2 83.77 5.10 88.87 2050/H2 0.00 0.32 0.322033/H1 75.58 4.39 79.97

Grand Total 11.127.34 (2) 1.325.29 (3) 12.452.63{1} The exchange rate of September 30, 2015 .

(2) Excludes US$ 1,261.19 million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 MN.

(3) Includes US$ 22.23 million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation.

(US$ million){1}

Multilateral Institutions



Table ( 18 )


Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Egyp

t - Extern

al P

ositio

n5

7

Figure 18

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049


Total Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Multilateral Institutions


US$ mn

58


2015/H2 0.00 24.66 24.66 2028/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2016/H1 0.00 24.66 24.66 2028/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2016/H2 0.00 24.66 24.66 2029/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2017/H1 0.00 24.66 24.66 2029/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2017/H2 0.00 24.66 24.66 2030/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2018/H1 0.00 24.66 24.66 2030/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2018/H2 0.00 24.66 24.66 2031/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2019/H1 0.00 24.66 24.66 2031/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2019/H2 0.00 24.66 24.66 2032/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2020/H1 418.71 24.66 443.37 2032/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2020/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62 2033/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2021/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62 2033/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2021/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62 2034/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2022/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62 2034/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2022/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62 2035/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2023/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62 2035/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2023/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62 2036/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2024/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62 2036/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2024/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62 2037/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2025/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62 2037/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2025/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62 2038/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2026/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62 2038/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2026/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62 2039/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62

2027/H1 0.00 12.62 12.62 2039/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62

2027/H2 0.00 12.62 12.62 2040/H1 367.12 12.62 379.74

Grand Total 785.83 751.40 1.537.23

(US$ million)

Table ( 19 )

Projected Sovereign Notes

Debt Service as of October 1, 2015


59

(US$ million)

Period Principal Interest Total

2015/H2 0.00 12.50 12.50

2016/H1 0.00 12.50 12.50

2016/H2 0.00 12.50 12.50

2017/H1 500.00 12.50 512.50

Grand Total 500.00 50.00 550.00


Table ( 20 )

Projected Saudi Bond


60

(US$ million)


2016/H1 0.00 17.50 17.50

2016/H2 1.000.00 17.50 1.017.50

Grand Total 1.000.00 35.00 1.035.00


Table ( 21 )

Projected Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.)



(US$ million)


2015/H2 0.00 37.01 37.01

2016/H1 0.00 37.01 37.01

2016/H2 0.00 37.01 37.01

2017/H1 0.00 37.01 37.01

2017/H2 0.00 37.01 37.01

2018/H1 0.00 37.01 37.01

2018/H2 0.00 37.01 37.01

2019/H1 0.00 37.01 37.01

2019/H2 0.00 37.01 37.01

2020/H1 0.00 37.01 37.01

2020/H2 0.00 37.01 37.01

2021/H1 0.00 37.01 37.01

2021/H2 0.00 37.01 37.01

2022/H1 0.00 37.01 37.01

2022/H2 0.00 37.01 37.01

2023/H1 0.00 37.01 37.01

2023/H2 0.00 37.01 37.01

2024/H1 0.00 37.01 37.01

2024/H2 0.00 37.01 37.01

2025/H1 1.260.00 37.01 1.297.01

Grand Total 1.260.00 740.20 2.000.20

Table ( 22 )

Projected Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N.)



(US$ million)


2015/H2 100.00 76.91 176.91

2016/H1 100.00 77.68 177.68

2016/H2 600.00 94.60 694.60

2017/H1 600.00 76.94 676.94

2017/H2 600.00 94.33 694.33

2018/H1 2.598.67 76.62 2.675.29

2018/H2 6.100.00 68.56 6.168.56

2019/H1 2.099.67 51.05 2.150.71

2019/H2 100.00 25.76 125.76

2020/H1 2.101.67 25.60 2.127.26

Grand Total 15.000.00 668.04 15.668.04



Table ( 23 )

Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Deposits (1)


Table ( 24 )

Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar

as at End of September

Country Currency 2012 2013 2014 2015

United States USD 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Switzerland CHF 0.94 0.91 0.96 0.97

Denmark DKK 5.80 5.53 5.92 6.66

Egypt EGP 6.08 6.87 7.13 7.72

Sweden SEK 6.57 6.42 7.27 8.39

Japan JPY 77.94 97.64 109.86 120.25

India INR 52.70 62.78 61.61 65.74

United Kingdom GBP 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.66

Canada CAD 0.98 1.03 1.12 1.34

Australia AUD 0.96 1.07 1.15 1.42

Norway NOK 5.73 6.02 6.46 8.49

Euro EURO 0.78 0.74 0.79 0.89

Special Drawing Rights SDR 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.71

Kuwait KWD 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30

United Arab Emirates AED 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67

Saudi Arabia SAR 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75


Appendix III

Box Page

I- Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions……………… 1 65

II- Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions…………………………………………... 2 66

III- Doing Business in Egypt…………………………………………………… 3 67

IIII- Tourism Market Diversification …………………………………………. 4 68

- Glossary……………………………………………………………………. 69


Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions: In 1996, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) introduced the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). The SDDS is intended to guide countries that have, or seek to have, access to international capital markets in their provision of economic and financial statistics. Subscription to SDDS is voluntary and it requires subscribers to observe the standard and provide information on data and dissemination practices (the metadata) to the IMF for re-dissemination. The standard identifies 4 dimensions of data dissemination: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness; access by the public; the integrity of the disseminated data; and the quality of the data themselves. In particular, the data dimension lists 18 data category, providing coverage for 4 sectors (real, financial, fiscal and external) of the economy and prescribes minimum timeliness and frequency standard, summarized in table below.

On January 31, 2005, Egypt became the 59th subscriber to the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The report of external position contains external sector data that cover external debt, balance of payments, international reserves, merchandise trade, international investment position (IIP) and exchange rates. Such data are published in compliance with the requirement under Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the IMF. Central Bank of Egypt compiles these statistics and disseminates them through press releases, its website, and at the same time, on the IMF's Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (DSBB). Also, these data are included in the CBE main publications; quarterly Economic Review, Annual Report and monthly Bulletins. As the title indicates, the most comprehensive and complete databases are those available from national sources, supplying high quality, timely and accurate data to international financial community to support investment activity.

SDDS Data Categories and Related Periodicity & Timeliness Standards

SDDS Data Category Periodicity Minimum Timeliness Real Sector National accounts Quarterly 1 Quarter Production indices Monthly 6 weeks Employment, unemployment, wage/earnings Quarterly 1 Quarter Consumer price index Monthly 1 Month

Fiscal Sector General Government operations Annual 2 quarters Central Government operations Monthly 1 Month Central Government debt Quarterly 1 Quarter

Financial Sector Analytical accounts of the banking sector Monthly 1 Month Analytical accounts of the Central Bank Monthly 2 weeks Interest rates and stock market Daily * No timeliness standard set

External Sector Balance of payments Quarterly 1 Quarter International reserves Monthly 1 week Merchandise trade Monthly 8 weeks International investment position (IIP) Quarterly 1 quarters External debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Exchange rates Daily *No timeliness standard set Source: IMF Statistics Department. 1 http://dsbb.imf.org/Pages/SDDS/CtyCtgList.aspx?ctycode=EGY


Box. (2):Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions*: According to international rating agencies, having an efficient, effective and reliable economic data, especially in developing countries, is becoming increasingly crucial to assign an appropriate sovereign credit rating. Thus, a lack of data in this area will automatically translate into a perception of high risk. Therefore, highlighting the dimensions of Egypt data quality by showing the results of World Bank index (BBSC 2015) will be an appropriate way to show how reliable are the Egyptian official data.

Egypt ranked 8th on World Bank's Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity index on 154 developing countries and 2nd on the MENA and African regions, with an overall statistical capacity index of 91.1 points, compared to 90.0 in 2014. This score puts Egypt among the top 12 country group score list, ranging between 90-100 points. These countries can be distinguished and noticed easily on the map by countries colored dark green, as shown above.

Statistical Capacity Indicator 2015 (on a scale of 0-100)

Indicator Egypt All Countries

Overall 91.1 68.8 Methodology 80 59.1 Source Data 100 66.1 Periodicity & timeliness 93.3 81.2

A country's statistical capacity means its ability to extract and publish reliable and timely statistical data, easily accessible by the public. The statistical capacity index, issued annually by the World Bank, consists of three sub-indicators which include; methodology, data sources, and its periodicity and timeliness. The latter measures the degree of information and data dissemination concerning changes in government policy, and how easily that information can be accessed by the public. It is worth mentioning that, aiming to improve the statistical capacity of 154 developing countries, the World Bank provides information on various aspects of national statistical systems through the BBSC indicator at its website.

0 20 40 60 80 100

Overall

Methodology

Source Data

Periodicity & Timeliness

All countries Egypt

As can be seen from the table and its chart, Egypt’s score outpaced the average score of all countries, either on the level of the overall index, or on the level of its three sub-indicators, getting the highest score of 100 points on the scale in the source data sub-indicator. _______________________________________ * Source: bbsc.Worldbank.org, accessed in December, 2015.


Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt: One of the most important indices and reports that is closely related to investment climate and investor’s decisions is Doing Business. The Report has been designed and issued by the World Bank Group on an annual basis since 2003. It provides objective measures of business regulations for firms in 189 economies worldwide. The 2016 ranking on the ease of doing business is built upon indicator sets that measure and benchmark regulations affecting 10 areas in a business’s life cycle. Doing Business encompasses 2 types of data. The first is “Legal scoring indicators” that provides a measure of legal provisions in the laws and regulations. The other type is “Time and motion indicators”, which measures the efficiency and complexity in achieving a regulatory goal by recording the procedures, time and cost to complete a transaction according to all relevant regulations. By comparing business regulation environments across nations (the ease of doing business ranking) and over time (the distance to frontier score), Doing Business encourages countries to compete towards more efficient regulation; offers measurable benchmarks for reform; and serves as a resource for policymakers and other interested parties.

Topic Rankings 2016 Rank 2015 Rank Change in Rank

Overall index 131 126 -5

Distance to frontier score* 54.43 54.19 +0.24

Starting a Business 73 69 -4

Dealing with Construction Permits 113 114 +1

Getting Electricity 144 145 +1

Registering Property 111 109 -2

Getting Credit 79 71 -8

Protecting Investors 122 133 +11

Paying Taxes 151 146 -5

Trading Across Borders 157 157 -

Enforcing Contracts 155 155 -

Resolving Insolvency 119 121 +2 * The rankings are determined by sorting the aggregate distance to frontier scores on 10 topics.

Doing Business recognizes, every year, the 10 nations that improved the most in the ease of Doing Business in the previous year and introduced policy changes in 3 or more areas. A set of reforms of the business environment that was implemented, placed Egypt among the top reformers in the World Bank’s Doing Business Index over three consecutive years (2008-2010). During 2014/2015, Egypt strengthened minority investor protections by barring subsidiaries from acquiring shares issued by their parent company. Egypt overall index stepped down 5 places to 131st rank in 2016.

Area of Reform Year Reform Actions

Starting a Business

2008 The minimum capital required to start a business was cut from EGP 50,000 to EGP

1,000, and halved start-up time and cost.

2009 It was made easier by reducing the paid-in minimum capital requirement by more

than 80%, abolishing bar association fees, and automating tax registration.

2010 The minimum capital required to start a business was removed

2011 Egypt reduced the cost to start a business.

Dealing with Construction Permits

2008 The cost of dealing with licenses was reduced.

2009 A new building code introduced in 2008 is aimed at reducing the procedures and time

required to deal with construction permits by establishing a single window for

processing construction-related approvals.

2010 Construction permits were made easier by issuing executive articles for the 2008

construction law and eliminating most pre-approvals for construction permits.

Enforcing Contracts 2010 Contract enforcement was expedited with the creation of commercial courts.

Getting Credit 2009

Thanks to new regulations issued by the Central Bank, borrowers have the right to

inspect their data in the private credit bureau.

2010 Access to credit information has expanded with the addition of retailers to the

database of the private credit bureau.

Registering Property 2008 Registering property was reduced from 3% of the property value to a low fixed fee.

2009

Simplified administrative procedures for registering property and new time limits have

reduced the time to transfer property in Cairo from 193 days to 72.

Trading Across Borders

2008 New one-stop shops were launched for traders at the ports, cutting the time to import

by 7 days and the time to export by 5.

2009 Alexandria port continued to upgrade its facilities and speed customs clearance,

reducing the time to export by 1 day and the time to import by 3.

2011 Egypt made trading easier by introducing an electronic system for submitting export

and import documents. Protecting Minority Investors 2009

New listing rules for the Cairo Stock Exchange strengthened protections for minority

shareholders: now an independent body must assess transactions between

interested parties before they are approved.

2015 Additional requirements have been introduced to strengthen minority investor

protections; An approval of related-party transactions and greater requirements for

disclosure of such transactions to the Egyptian Exchange.

2016 by barring subsidiaries from acquiring shares issued by their parent company

Source: www.doingbusiness.org, accessed in December 2015.


Box. (4):Tourism Market Diversification:

On Q-over-Q comparison, the tourism sector experienced a slowdown in activities during Q1 of 2015/2016, as it witnessed a slight drop in all tourism indicators; tourism receipts, the number of tourist arrivals, and the number of tourist nights. (Lines 1, 2, and 5 in the table below). Ministry of Tourism figures show that a total of 2629 thousand tourists came from all over the world spent 23735 thousand nights in Q1 of 2015/2016, constituting a decrease of 5.0 percent and 9.1 percent respectively, from the same period of the previous year figures. About 5.0 percent falling in tourist arrivals resulted from less visitors coming from European countries (131.3 percent of total decrease), while there was an increase coming from other regions as follows; Middle East region (16.0 percent), Americas countries (11.5 percent), and Asia & Pacific region (4.0 percent). The average expenditure per night scaled down to US$ 72.7/night in Q1 of 2015/2016 from US$ 80.1/night a year earlier (line 7 in the following table). This decrease was mainly attributable to an decrease in the number of tourist arrivals coming from European countries, who have the highest expenditure per visitor nights. Spurred by the drop in the number of tourism nights (-9.1 percent), combined with the weakening effect of the average expenditure per night (-9.2 percent), travel receipts data in the balance of payments recorded a decrease of US$ 0.4 billion or 17.5 percent to US$ 1.7 billion Q-over-Q in the first quarter 2015/16. During Q1 of 2015/2016, data show that visitors stayed shorter on average of 9.0 nights per person compared to 9.4 per person of the same period of the previous year (line 6). Tourists coming from Middle East region and the African nationals headed the list in terms of the length of stay per visitor with an average of 9.4 nights per visitor. European countries was the runner up with 9.0 nights/visitor, followed by American region (8.9 nights/visitor) and Asia & Pacific region (6.8 nights/visitor).

Indicators of Tourism Activity 2013/14 2014/15

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Q1 Q1 Q4 Q1 1.Tourism Receipts (USD mn) 5073 7370 931 2092 1900 1726

2. Stay-over Visitors (x 1000) 7968 10243 1630 2768 2639 2629

3. Market Shares (% of Tourist Arrivals) 100 100 100 100 100 100

a. European Countries 76.0 75.6 74.4 75.8 75.7 72.8

b. Middle East Countries 13.4 13.9 14.7 15.1 13.0 16.8

c. African Countries 4.6 4.0 5.0 3.9 4.5 4.1

d. Americas 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.5 3.0 3.2

e. Asia & Pacific 3.1 3.5 2.7 2.6 3.6 2.9

f. Other Countries 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

4. Market Shares (% of Tourist Nights) 100 100 100 100 100 100

a. European Countries 70.7 76.9 65.5 73.9 77.6 72.9

b. Middle East Countries 20.0 15.5 24.3 17.8 14.3 17.5

c. African Countries 4.3 3.0 3.9 3.6 3.5 4.1

d. Americas 2.6 2.5 4.0 3.0 2.3 3.2

e. Asia & Pacific 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 2.1 2.2

f. Other Countries 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

5. Visitor Nights (x 1000) 72,919 99,246 15,263 26,115 25,857 23,735

6. Average Nights Spent (per Visitor) 9.2 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.8 9.0

7. Receipts per Visitor Nights (USD/night) 69.6 74.3 61.0 80.1 73.5 72.7 8. Contribution to Current Receipts % 6.8 11.2 5.0 11..0 12.4 12.2 Sources: CBE, MOT, and CAPMAS.


Glossary Balance of Payments: a statistical statement that summarizes, for a specific period of time, the economic transactions of an economy with the rest of the world. Bilateral Debt: Loans extended by a bilateral creditor. Bilateral Rescheduling Agree-ments: Rescheduling agreements reached bilaterally between the debtor and creditor countries. These are legally the equivalent of new loan agreements. After a Paris Club rescheduling, such agreements are required to put into effect the debt restructuring set forth in the multinational Agreed Minute.

Buyer’s Credit: A financial arrangement in which a bank or financial institution, or an export credit agency in the exporting country, extends a loan directly to a foreign buyer or to a bank in the importing country to pay for the purchase of goods and services from the exporting country. Also known as financial credit. This term does not refer to credit extended directly from the buyer to the seller (for example, through advance payment for goods and services). Capital Account: a bop account that covers capital transfers and the acquisition or disposal of non-produced non-financial items, such as; patents. Current Account: a bop account that covers all transactions in goods, services, income, and current transfers between residents and nonresidents. Cutoff Date: The date (established at the time of a country’s first Paris Club debt reorganization / restruc- tureing) before which loans must have been contracted in order for their debt service to be eligible for restructuring. New loans extended after the cutoff date are protected

from future restructuring (subordi-nation strategy). In exceptional cases, arrears on post-cutoff-date debt can be deferred over short periods of time in restructuring agreements. Debt Instruments: Existing debt instruments typically arise out of contractual relationships under which an institutional unit (the debtor) has an unconditional liability to another institutional unit (the creditor) to repay principal with or without interest, or to pay interest without principal. These instruments include debt securities, loans, trade credit, and currency and deposits. Debt instruments may also be created by the force of law—in particular, obligations to pay taxes or to make other compulsory pay-ments— or through rights and obligations that results in a debtor accepting an obligation to make future payment(s) to a creditor. Debt Service: Refers to payments in respect of both principal and interest. Actual debt service is the set of payments actually made to satisfy a debt obligation, including principal, interest, and any late payment fees. Scheduled debt service is the set of payments, including principal and interest, which is required to be made through the life of the debt. Debt Sustainability Analysis: A study of a country’s medium- to long-term debt situation. A country’s eligibility for support under the HIPC Initiative is determined on the basis of such an analysis, jointly undertaken by the staffs of the IMF, the World Bank, and the country concerned. External Debt: Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those actual current, and not contingent, liabilities that require payment(s) of interest and/or prin-cipal by the debtor at some point(s)


in the future and that are owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy. Financial Account: a bop account that covers transactions between residents and nonresidents in direct, portfolio, and other investment, financial derivatives, and reserve assets. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): the value of an economy's total output of goods and services, less intermediate consumption, plus net taxes on products and imports. It can be broken down by output, ex-penditure, or income components. The main expenditure aggregates are final consumption of household and government, gross fixed capital formation, changes in inventories and imports and exports of goods and services. International Investment Position (IIP): The IIP is the stock of external financial assets and liabilities on a specified reference date, usually the end of the quarter or year. The change in position between two end- periods reflects financial trans-actions, valuation changes, and other adjustments occurring during the period. Long-Term External Debt: Ex-ternal debt that has a maturity of more than one year. Maturity can be defined either on an original or remaining basis. Multilateral Creditors: These creditors are multilateral institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank, as well as other multilateral development banks. Official Development Assistance (ODA): Flows of official financing administered with the promotion of the economic development and welfare of developing countries as the main objective, and which are

concessional in character with a grant element of at least 25 percent (using a fixed 10 percent rate of discount). By convention, ODA flows comprise contributions of donor government agencies, at all levels, to developing countries (“bilateral ODA”) and to multilateral institutions. ODA receipts comprise disbursements by bilateral donors and multilateral institutions. Lending by export credit agencies—with the pure purpose of export promotion—is excluded. Original Maturity: the period of time from when the financial asset/liability was created to its final maturity date. Paris Club: An informal group of creditor governments that has met regularly in Paris since 1956 to reschedule bilateral debts; the French treasury provides the secretariat. Creditors meet with a debtor country to reschedule its debts as part of the international support provided to a country that is experiencing debt servicing difficulties and is pursuing an adjustment program supported by the IMF. The Paris Club does not have a fixed membership, and its meetings are open to all official creditors that accept its practices and procedures. The core creditors are mainly OECD member countries, but other creditors attend as relevant for a debtor country. Russia became a member in September 1997. Remaining (Residual) Maturity: The period of time until debt payments fall due. In the External Debt Guide, it is recommended that short-term remaining maturity of outstanding external debt be measured by adding the value of outstanding short-term external debt (original maturity) to the value of outstanding long-term external debt (original maturity) due to be paid in one year or less.

july/september 2015/16 · central bank of egypt external position of the egyptian economy...

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