july 4, 2010 gubernatorial elections in mexico

8/9/2019 July 4, 2010 Gubernatorial Elections in Mexico

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Theyre Off and Running

The July 4, 2010 Mexican Gubernatorial Elections: A Preliminary Assessment(Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, Durango, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Puebla, Quintano Roo, Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala, and

Zacatecas)

George W. GraysonClass of 1938 Professor of Government

College of William & MaryWilliamsburg, Virginia 23187-8795

[email protected]

May 20, 2010

George W. Grayson, 2010
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Introduction

The campaign just began officially for the July 4, 2010 gubernatorial races, theInstitutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which has gained ground in recent years, looks to

maintain its momentum and pave the way for recapturing the Los Pinos presidential residence intwo years. Major factors in the upcoming contests are (1) the PRIs momentum, (2) theinfluence of incumbent governors and the peanietizacin of candidacies, (3) the extraordinaryimportance of Oaxaca as a laboratory for future alliances, and (4) the unprecedented cascade ofresources flowing into these political battles. This analysis concludes with a state-by-statebreakdown of nominees, their backgrounds, alliances, and preliminary prospects.

The PRIs Momentum

Despite losing every state and the Federal District in the presidential showdown, the PRIquickly rebounded. It amassed 45 percent of the ballots cast in the 20 states, embracing 63

percent of the national electorate, which held state and local elections in 2007 and 2008. It alsotook governorships from the PAN with the triumphs of Aracelly Ortega Pacheco in Yucatn(2007), Jos Eduardo Calzada Quertaro (2009), and Fernando Toranzo Fernndez (2009), evenas it lost the Sonora statehouse topanistaGuillermo Padrs Elas.

On May 16, the PRI appeared to win the mayorship of Mrida, Yucatn, a stronghold ofthe PAN, which is contesting the outcome. Preliminary results indicate that the self-proclaimedrevolutionary party captured 63 municipalities in this southern state to the PANs 35.Meanwhile, the PRI increased its number of legislators in this southern state from 14 to 15, whilethe PANs ranks fell from 9 to 8.

The PRI scored a resounding triumph in the mid-2009 Chamber of Deputies contests. Asseen in Figure 1, the party boosted its presence in the 500-member lower chamber from 106 to

237 seats, while President Felipe Calderns National Action Party (PAN) witnessed its numbersdiminish from 206 to 143 seats. The leftist-nationalist Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD),which captured one-third of the 2006 presidential vote with the populist, messianic AndrsManuel Lpez Obrador at the head of the ticket, suffered a resounding setback three years later.

Magnified Role of Governors and the Peanietazacin of Candidacies

During most of the PRIs hammerlock on the presidency (1929-2000), chief executivesmanipulated governors as if they were bellhops. Iconic presidents Lzaro Crdenas (1934-40)and Carlos Salinas (1988-94) removed half of the state executivesoccasionally for promotions;more often to punish them. Many PRI governors secretly rejoiced when the PANfirst with thehapless Vicente Fox Quesada (2000-06) and then Calderon (2006-present)ascended to the topof Mexicos political pyramid. These triumphs ensured emancipation from central dominanceover affairs in their bailiwicks. State executives now can thumb their noses at Los Pinos exceptwhen they descend on Mexico City during the federal budgets preparation each December.Rather than assess property at market rates and collect states taxes at appropriate levels, thegovernors prefer the dip as deeply as possible into federal revenues. After all, many of the


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prosperous landowners and businessmen in their states are family members, political supporters,and past or present elected officials.

The national media shed some light on irresponsible and crooked federal officials, butgovernors call the shots in their territories. They rule like latter-day viceroys thanks to a

compliant press (whose owners fear losing state advertising), economic bonds to the privatesector (whose members salivate for government contracts), blatant manipulation of stateslegislatures (whose deputies receive extravagant salaries and benefits in return for rubber-stamping executive initiatives), and malleable state electoral institutes (whose counselors owetheir well-paying, prestigious jobs to governors).

The PAN charged Veracruzs crafty Felipe Herrera Beltrn of earmarking public moniesfor PRI candidates in his states 2007 municipal and state legislative races with a view toburying the opposition. Mexico States chief executive Enrique Pea Nieto has flaunted aformal IFE ban on out-of-season TV commercials by overloading the airways with self-promoting messages throughout the country. On a titillating note, former Morelos GovernorSergio Estrada Cagijal won fame for taking girlfriends on flying trysts in his states Helicopter

of Love. For decades, governors across the political spectrum have engaged in direct or indirectvote buying.1Peanietazacin characterizes the candidates selected by several outgoing governors this

year. Just as former Mexico State chief executive Arturo Montiel Rojas (2000-2006) handpickedmovie-star handsome Pea Nieto as his successor, other retiring governors have chosen localgolden boys who are photogenic, skilled campaigners, magnets for money, andabove allprepared to shield their predecessors from corruption charges. This process is patently evident inTamaulipas (Gov. Eugenio Hernndez and candidate Rodolfo Torre Cant), Durango (Gov.Ismael Hernndez Deras and candidate Jorge Herrera Caldera), Hidalgo (Gov. Miguel ngelOsorio Chong and candidate Jos Francisco Olvera Ruiz), and Veracruz (Gov. Fidel Herrera andcandidate Javier Duarte de Ochoa).

Even though they have not attempted to matinee idols, governors in drug-suffused stateshave also opted for individuals who may safeguard them against future charges of involvementwith narco-traffickers. The most salient example is Sinaloas retiring state leader, Jess AguilarPadilla, who handpicked Culiacn mayor Jess Vizcarra Caldern as the PRI standard-bearer.He made this controversial move even afterReforma newspaper published a picture of Vizcarrain a group that included Sinaloa Cartel capo Ismael El Mayo Zambada Garca and other shadycharacters. The candidate explained that the photo was twenty years old and that both men wereattending a celebration dedicated to the Virgin of Guadalupe.2

Last year, in the face of national party opposition, the PRIs shadowy retiring governor inColima state bulldozed through the nomination and election of his fair-haired boy, MarioAnguiano Moreno, whose family has multiple ties to drug trafficking. At the time of hisswearing-in of the so-called narco-gobernador, he had both a brother and first cousinlanguishing behind bars in the United States. 3

PAN governors also involve themselves in political skullduggery. The partys NationalExecutive Committee (CEN) insisted on selecting the candidate in Aguascalientes inasmuch asincumbent chief executive, Luis Armando Reynoso Fermat, had embarrassed and divided theparty with this ineptness and charges of mismanagement. Reynoso quickly retaliated.Aguascalientes-watchers insist that he prevailed on a judge and the State Electoral Institute to


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disqualify the CENs choice, popular ex-mayor of Aguascalientes City Martn Orozco Sandovalfor alleged influence peddling. Although PAN officials have appealed the decision to theFederal Electoral Tribunal, the deadline has passed to field a substitute candidate. Thisdonnybrook augurs well for the PRIs nominee, Sen. Carlos Lozano de la Torre, who is a close

friend of fellow entrepreneur Gov. Reynoso.4

Oaxaca: The Mother of All Gubernatorial Contests in 2010

The key election on July 4 will take place in Oaxaca. This is the only place where all ofthe PRIs opponents have rallied behind a single candidate, Gabino Cu Monteagudo. Althoughimportant for 2010, Oaxaca provides a test of whether the revolutionary party is on track to seizethe big enchilada in 2012. The PRI has never lost Oaxaca; it is one of the five bastions of thepartys national strength; and it is run by an unscrupulous, dinosauric chief executive Ulises RuizOrtiz, who knows all of the devious tricks of the trade and dishes out pesos and political plums

like water. He recently commented to a fellow governor: Why do you spend so much on publicworks? Neither highways nor bridges vote. I dont undertake public works. I have $42 billion(42 mil millones de pesos)for the election. As a result of these resources, an Oaxacanbusinessman reported that: Every 15 days an opposition mayor crosses over to the PRI.5 Ruizis eager to become the next PRI president and, in 2018, he might even make a bid for the top job.

The president of the PAN, which heads a four-party alliance, has already accused Ruizof provoking violence to incite fear, destabilize the electoral process, and justify intervention onbehalf of his dauphin Eviel Prez Magaa and other PRI candidates. 6

If Cu Monteagudos Alliance United for the Peace and Progress coalition, featuringthe PAN, the PRD, the PT, and Convergencia, wins in Oaxaca, key politiciansPAN PresidentCsar Nava Vzquez (a Caldern confidant) and PRD President Jess Ortega Martnezwill

immediately explore reactivating the coalition for the 2011 chief executives race in MexicoState, which boasts the largest number of voters in the country (more than 9 million) and theleading contender for the presidency, Gov. Pea Nieto. An opposition upset in this traditionallyPRI fiefdom would deliver a thudding blow to Pea Nietos hope of easily capturing his partysnomination en route to Los Pinos in 2012.

Pea Nieto is assisting his fellowpristas in Oaxaca and in other states. His lacklusterperformance in media interviews and a public forum magnifies his reliance on the PRIsTammany Hall-style machinery to loft his political star. Other PRI aspirantsber-SenatorManlio Fabio Beltrones, party president Beatriz Paredes Rangel, and (long shot) VeracruzGovernor Fidel Herrera Beltrnare also eyeing developments in this extremely poor state,which is comprised of a large indigenous population. In addition, possible PAN presidential

contenders are keeping close tabs on the race, including Finance Secretary Eduardo CorderoArroyo, Senator Santiago Creel Miranda (a Caldern critic); the partys leader in the Chamber ofDeputies, Josefina Vzquez Mota, and Labor Secretary Eduardo Cordero Arroyo. Also attentiveto Oaxaca is Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon, who would relish a race to succeedCaldern as the standard-bearer of a PAN-Left pact. One of the many obstacles that Ebrardfaces is self-described legitimate president Lpez Obradors belief that he has a mission to


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redeem the nationsjodidos (abused ones) and is loath to throw his diminishing weight behindthe D.F. leader whom he helped elect.

Lieutenants in Napoleons army were said to have tucked a marshals baton in theirknapsacks. Similarly, Mexicos governors keep presidential sashes in their briefcases. For

instance, Rodrigo Medina de la Cruz, the boyish looking 37-year-old state executive who tookoffice in Nuevo Len last year, has discreetly passed the word of his availability as acompromise candidate should a stalemate arise over the nomination. Never mind, that he is greenas grass, he was named to protect the previous governor, and his state is aflame with drug-actuated violence.

Cascade of Money into Gubernatorial Elections

The Mexican Congress spearheaded reforms in 2007 designed to concentrate state andlocal electionsonce spread across the calendaron a limited number of dates and, thereby,eliminate permanent campaigns. Legislators argued that the change would generate savings,

reduce the period of campaigning, promote coalitions, and amplify public awareness of theparties, their candidates, and their platforms. The law of unintended consequences trumped thisinitiative. Mexican elections increasingly resemble their U.S. counterparts. Candidates havebeen out rallying support for months, if not years. The states have imposed limits on the lengthof campaigns, but there is no consistency nationwide. Moreover, except in Quintana Roo, theserestrictions do not apply to aspirants before the formal nominations take place. They are alsoemploying sophisticated consultants, public-relations firms, and pollsters even as they use to e-mails, YouTube, and Twitter. These factors have driven up the cost of contests. As described inFigure 2, expenditures through early 2010 had substantially eclipsed outlays in 2004-05.Veracruz led the money chase with seven weeks left before citizens go to the polls.

The monetary involvement of the drug cartels has yet to clearly manifest itself. Years

ago, the capos concentrated on local races, especially on municipalities that lay along theirtrafficking routes. In recent years, they have become ever-more concerned about gubernatorialand national contests. A protected witness avers that in the last contest in Michoacn, a criminalorganization contributed $155,000 (2 million pesos) to favored mayoral candidates who, ifelected, receive second stipend of $15,000 (200,000 pesos) per month. The same anonymoussource swore than current PRD governor Leonel Godoy Rangel, elected in November 2007,raked in $300,000 from each of leaders of La Familia Michoacana, a syndicate based in his homestate of Michoacna charge he vehemently denies.7

To mitigate the involvement of capos in selecting candidates, the PANs NationalExecutive Committee (CEN) selected the gubernatorial contender for Tamaulipas, as well as anumber of its mayoral and state legislative candidates in Sinaloa, home to the infamous SinaloaCartel. Two events in mid-Maythe execution of PANs candidate for mayor of ValleHermoso, Tamaulipas, Jos Mario Guajardo Varela, and the mysterious disappearance of formerPAN presidential nominee and millionaire super-lawyer, Diego Jefe Diego Fernndez deCevalloswill focus even more attention on the crime syndicates in the run-up to the July 4balloting.


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Conclusions

Although not federal elections, the mid-2010 gubernatorial face offs have nationalconsequences. The Oaxaca showdown will indicate whether the PRIs old guard can prevail

against an attractive competitor. The outcome is especially important to the aspirations ofMexico State Governor Pea Nieto who, despite a disquieting lack of knowledge about issues,remains the front-runner for both the PRI nomination and the presidential contest. At the sametime, the PAN and the Left (the PRD, Convergencia, and the PT) have joined forces in Oaxaca inhopes of defeating Ulises Ruizs favorite son and, thereby demonstrating that it may be able toforge a coalition to win the 2011 Mexico State gubernatorial race and derail Pea Nietosapparent juggernaut. In five other states (Durango, Oaxaca, Hidalgo, Puebla, Sinaloa), the PANhas joined with the PRD and Convergencia in alliances. The success of PAN-Left pacts couldenable the parties involved to mount a serious challenge in 2012 to the PRI, which now has thewind at its back.

1. Dirigi elecciones Fidel Herrera,Reforma, May 28, 2009.

2. Dime con quin andas...,Reforma, December 8, 2009; and Jess Vizcarra buscar Gubernatura de Sinaloa, ElEconomista, February 15, 2010.

3. Narco poltica divide al PRI: Excelsior, El gora, March 25, 2009.

4. Luigi Rivera and Horacio Jimnez, PAN, sin candidate en Aguascalientes, Reforma, May 5, 2010.

5. These quotations appear in Raymundo Riva Palacio, Ulises,Debate.com.mx, May 9, 2010.

6. Virgilio Snchez, Azuza Ulises violencia en Oaxaca, acusa Nava,Reforma, May 3, 2010.

7. Dicen que La Familia apoy campaas,Reforma, June 20, 2009.

The author has presented the GCE/Milenio polls because they were the most widely available and, in some cases,the only ones available when this analysis was prepared. However, it is imperative to note that the heads of theGabinete de Comunicacin Estratgica (GCE)Libano Senz Ortiz and Federico Berrueto Prunedaarelongtime PRI activists who sometimes consult for PRI campaigns. Critics charge that partisanship affects theresults that they disseminate; see, Federico Arreola, La cuchareada encuesta de Libano Senz sobre Oaxaca,

SDPnoticias.com, April 13, 2010. In fact, GCE/Milenio findings have jibed with those of other well-known andrespected firms. Surveys are of limited value early in the campaign season, when the undecided rate may exceed30% of the tally.

.


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Figure 1: Change in Chamber of Deputies Seats, 2006-Present

Party No. of

Deputies(2006-09)

No. of Deputies

(2009-2012)

Change in

Seats

Senators

(None elected in 2009)

InstitutionalRevolutionary

Party (PRI)

106 237 131 33

NationalActionParty

(PAN)

206 143 -63 50

DemocraticRevolutionaryParty (PRD)

127 69 -58 26

Party ofWorkers (PT)

11 13 2 5

ConvergenciaParty

18 8 -10 6

GreenEcological Party

of Mexico(PVEM)

17 21 4 6

New AllianceParty

(PANAL)*

9 9 0 0

SocialDemocratic

Party (PSD) **

5 0 -5 0

Independent 1 0 -1 2TOTAL 500 500 128

This party is the handmaiden of SNTE Teachers Union boss, Elba Esther GordilloMorales, whom M. Delal Baer, the late head of the CSIS Mexico Program, oncedescribed as a Jimmy Hoffa in a skirt.

** In light of its failure to obtain 2% of the national vote, the PSD lost its registration,which is required to run candidates in federal elections.


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Figure 2: Expenditures in Gubernatorial and Local Elections, 2004-05 and 2010(In Pesos)

State Expenditures onGubernatorial andLocal Elections

(2010)*

Expenditures onGubernatorial andLocal Elections

(2004-05)**Aguascalientes 92,291,000 81,007,000Chihuahua 235,369,198 153,288,001Durango 241,181,543 107,293,287Hidalgo 267,300,000 233,626,800Oaxaca 174,818,002 174,818,002Puebla 283,374,880 271,121,747Quintana Roo 192,250,000 99,262,058

Sinaloa 323,464,949 184,210,990Tamaulipas 192,110,064 68,612,881Tlaxcala 164,378,440 108,507,780Veracruz 594,521,788 329,010,945Yucatn 184,316,7623 97,500,000Zacatecas 238,004,983 176,329,428

*In 2010 the dollar was worth approximately 12 pesos. **In 2004-05 the dollar was worth approximately 9.2 to 9.3 pesos.

Source: Ernesto Nez, Elecciones 2010: caras, largas y conflictiva, May 2, 2010, Reforma (Enfoque supplement).


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2010 Gubernatorial Races in Mexico: Preliminary Analysis

Figure 3: Aguascalientes (July 4)

PRICandidate

Sen. Carlos Lozano de la Torre; born Feb. 9, 1950, Aguascalientes, Ags.;studied industrial development and new cities in the U.K.; state secretary ofeconomic development/Ags. (1992-98); secretary of economic development inZacatecas (1998-2004); and senator (2006-present)

PANCandidate

Martn Orozco Sandoval; born June 25, 1967, Santa Mara de los ngeles, VC;studied public accounting at the Universidade Panamericana/(Bonaterre campus); practiced accounting (1983-95); state secretary of socialdevelopment in Aguascalientes city (1999-2001); state legislator (2001-04); mayorof Aguascalientes city (2005-07); served as National President of the Mexican

Association of Municipalities; PANs National Executive Committee selected himas the nominee; on Feb. 2010, a judge ordered his arrest for influence peddling; inlight of this charge, the state electoral institute refused to certify his candidacyamove that the PAN successfully appealed to the top federal electoral tribunal.

LeftCandidate

State legislatorNoraRuvalcaba Gmez; degrees in law and social sciences;primary school teacher; president of PRDs municipal committee in Aguascalientes(1997-2000) ; losing candidate for multiple offices; member of Aguascalientes citycouncil (2002-2004); member of the state legislature (2007-present); close toZacatecas Governor Amalia Garca Medina.

The Partido del Trabajo (PT) has nominated Hctor Quiroz Garca.

Coalitions The Alliance for Your Well-being, made up of the PRI, PVEM, and PANAL, isbacking Lozano de la Torre.

The Alliance Lets Unite Aguascalientes,composed of the PRD andConvergencia, is backing Ruvalcaba Gmez.

Analysis Lozano de la Torreis likely to come out on top because of the low approval ofoutgoing PAN Gov. Luis Armando Reynoso Femat, who refuses to endorse OrozcoSandoval; indeed, Reynoso has closer ties to the PRI nominee, a fellow business-man; moreover, the PRI has strengthened its chances by naming popular ex-DeputyLorena Martnez Rodrguez as candidate for the mayor of Aguascalientes city; thecharges against Orozco Sandoval have kept the PAN off stride; in a mid-AprilCGE/Milenio poll, Lozano (35.3%) led Orozco (21.6%), and Ruvalcaba (6.1%)

with 30% undecided (Margin of error +/- 4.0).


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Figure 4: Chihuahua (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Federal Deputy Csar Horacio Duarte Jquez; born April 14, 1963; Hidalgo

del Parral, Chih.; law degree (UACJ); federal deputy (2000-03; 2006-09), president ofChamber of Deputies 2008-09 (chosen by the partys National Executive Committee/CEN) as a compromise candidate; although annoyed that he could not hand pick thePRI candidate, outgoing Gov. Jos Reyes Baeza is now backing Duarte as seen by thevisible participation in Duartes campaign by the governors brother.

PANCandidate

Carlos Borruel Baquera; born Dec. 7, 1964, Chihuahua, Chih. B.A. in LetrasEspaoles; M.A. in public administration (ITC): journalist for El Norte (1992-96);city councilman in Chihuahua city; subdelegate for SEDESOL; state legislator (2004-2007); and mayor of the state capital of Chihuahua (2007 to 2010).

Left

Candidate

Vctor Orozco Orozco; born in late 1940s/early 1950s; law degree (UAC); M.A. in

political science (UAM); Ph.D. in political science (UNAM); professor at sociologyand political sciences at various universities (1974-2004; former PRD state president.

Coalitions Popular Front for Chihuahua spearheaded by the PT: Rubn Aguilar Jimnez; born1943; Ojinaga, Chih.; law degree (UAC); social activist, who created the PopularDefense Committee that seized land for the poor in Chih., Durango, and Torren,Coahuila; a founder of the PT (1991) and the partys only state president; unsuccessfulPT nominee for governor with support of PARM (1992); twice elected to as a FederalDeputy (1985-88; 2006-2009); currently candidate of the Popular Front for Chihuahua,which is spearheaded by the PT.

Analysis PRIis dominant, but the violence in state and low standing of the current governormeans thatBorruel Baquera has an outside chance of winning; both the PRI and the

PAN have held the statehouse, and chihuahuenses seem find with alternating the partyin power; however, the anticipated low turnout in strife-torn Ciudad Jurez, wherenearly half the states voters resides, bodes well for the PRIs superior politicalmachine; in addition, Duarte has gone out of his way to unify the party behind him,and Borruel has run a lackluster campaign so far.


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Figure 5: Durango (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Federal Deputy Jorge Herrera Caldera; born Jan. 8, 1963; Durango, Dgo;

accountant; mayor of Durango (2007-09); federal deputy (2009-10).

PANCandidate

Jos Rosas Aispuro Torres; born Oct. 19, 1961; holds B.A., M.A., and Ph.D.degrees in law; PRI state legislator (1998-2001); PRI Federal Deputy (1994-97; 2006-2009); resigned from PRI on Feb. 1, 2010 to accept nomination of other parties.

LeftCandidate

Gabino Martnez Guzmn (PT); backed by students at the Jurez University inDurango State where he teaches; even though, Ral Salinas, the wayward brother ofPresident Carlos Salinas (1988-94), founded the PT in Durango to siphon support fromthe PRD, the party can hope for only a percentage or two of the vote.

Coalitions Lets Unify Durango, composed of the PRD, PT, and Convergencia,has lined up behind Rosas Aispuro.

Analysis Jorge Herrera Calderaenjoys the complete support of outgoing Governor Ismael

Henndez Deras in this PRI bastion; a poll conducted by the Gabinete deComunicacin Estratgica (GCE) in mid-April found Herrera (44.7%) leading RosasAispuro (26%) and Martnez (3.6%). %)margin of error +/- 4%.*


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Figure 6: Hidalgo (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Jos Francisco OlveraRuiz; born June 15, 1956; Pachuca, Hidalgo; M.A. degree

in public administration (ISSTM and UVM); government secretary for outgoing stateexecutive Miguel ngel Osorio Chong; Mayor of Pachuca 2009-10) and the choice ofoutgoing Osorio Chong.

PANCandidate

See Coalitions

LeftCandidate

Xchitl Glvez Ruiz; born Feb. 22, 1963; Tepatepec, Hidalgo; studied computerengineering (UNAM); a specialist in intelligent buildings, she helped design the

information systems for the World Trade Center in Mexico City, la Torre Siglum, andla Torre Quadrata; her many honors include being listed as one of the 100 globalleaders of the future of the word by the World Economic Forum in Davos,Switzerland; of Otom descent, President Fox designated her to head the National

Commission for the Development of Indigenous Communities; she resigned the post inDec. 2006 amid a cut in her organizations budget.

Coalitions The Lets Unity Hidalgo coalition, made up of the PAN, PRD, and Convergencia,backs Xchitl Glvez Ruiz, who connects well with the people and the media; thePT, which originally had formed part of this amalgam, backed out when ex-PresidentFox endorsed Glvez Ruiz.

Analysis Olvera; Gov. Osorio Chong has a hammerlock on the state, which has beenintensified by Pemexs decision to construct an oil refinery in Hidalgo; Glvez Ruiz,an extremely attractive candidate who presents herself as an anti-corruption outsider,could give the PRI a run for its money, but the shadowy PRDaspirant for the nomination, Sen. Jos Guadarrama, is loath to support her. Whileunlikely to become the PT nominee, Guadarrama will work to defeat Glvez Ruiz,further fracturing the vote and boosting the PRIs prospects; a GCE/Milenio polltaken in mid-April found Olvera Ruiz (46.3%) ahead ofGlvez Ruiz (19%) and the PT nominee (2.6%)with nearly a quarter of respondentssaying either they had not made up their minds or they did not choose to answer.


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Figure 7: Oaxaca (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Eviel Prez Magaa; born June 6, 1963; San Juan Bautista Tuxtepec, Oax,;

studied business administration; mayor of Tuxtepec (2001-03); federal deputy (2003-04); served in state government (2004-09); federal deputy (2009-2010); backed byoutgoing governor Ulises Ruiz.

PANCandidate

See Coalitions

LeftCandidate

Gabino Cu Monteagudo; born Feb. 23, 1966, Oaxaca, Oax.; B.A. economics(ITESM); M.A. (CESEM in Spain); Ph.D. in finance and public sector economics(Complutense University/Madrid); advisor to the D.F. secretary of government (1992);various posts in Oaxaca government, including advisor to and, later, technicalsecretary of the governor; various positions in federal government, including privatesecretary to the secretary of Gobernacin; and subsecretary of social communication.;mayor of Oaxaca city (2001-03); and unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate in backed

by the PAN, PRD, and Convergencia (2004); and senator (2006-12).Coalitions Alliance United for the Peace and Progress coalition, featuring the PAN plus the

Left, has aligned with Cu as its standard-bearer.The coalition For the Transformation of Oaxaca, constituted by the PRI and PVEM,

is supporting Prez Magaa. Analysis Gabino Cuhas a fifty-fifty chance of winning in view of Ruiz unpopularity, if the

vote count is faira bigIF; three ex-governorsHelado Ramrez Lpez (1986-92),Didoro Carrasco Altamirano (1992-98), and Jos Mural Casab (1992-98)whohave no use for each other have cast their lot with Cu; he also boasts the support ofAndrs Manuel Lpez Obrador and SNTE Teachers Union chief Elba EstherGordillo. Meanwhile, the lethargic Prez Magaa lacks a strong campaigncoordinator such as the ruthless Jorge Franco Vargas, who resigned as state PRIpresident when Ruiz failed to pick him as the gubernatorial nominee.


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Figure 8: Puebla (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Javier Lpez Zavala; born Jan. 9, 1969; Pijijiapan, Chiapas; law degree (BUAP);

state sec. of Government (1992-97; 2005-07); director-general of DIF (1999-02); statelegislator (2001-2004); campaign manager for outgoing Gov. Mario Marn Torres).PANCandidate

Sen. Rafael Javier Moreno Valle; born June 30, 1968; Puebla, Pue.; law degree(Boston U.); federal deputy; state legislator; left the PRI in 2006; senator (2006-12);active in campaigns of previous PRI governors; and won 70% of the vote in a Feb. 14primary for PAN members); he defeated Ana Teresa Aranda Orozco(too rightwing and bland) and Humberto Aguilar Coronado (favorite of Sen. SantiagoCreel).

LeftCandidate

Armando Echeverry Beltrn (PT); specialist in energy matters.

Coalitions N/AAnalysis Lpez Zavalafaces a strong challenge, but led with 31.7% of the preferences over

Moreno Valle (26.4%) and Echeverry (3.5%)with a high level of undecideds in amid-April GCE/Milenio poll(margin of error +/-4%).


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Figure 9: Quintana Roo (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Federal Deputy Roberto Beto Borge Angulo; born Dec.29, 1979; Cozumel,

QRoo; B.A. Public Administration; various state posts: treasurer, official mayor,private secretary to Gov-elect Fliz Gonzlez Canto, president of state PRI; and federaldeputy (2009-2012.

PANCandidate

Alicia Concepcin Ricalde Magaa; born Nov. 10, 1965; Isla Mujeres, Qroo;state legislator (1996-99); member of city council, Isla Mujeres (1999); delegate to theNational Agrarian Registry in QRoo; and mayor of Isla Mujeres (2008-present).

LeftCandidate

Gregorio Snchez Martnez; born March 18, 1963; Tecpan de Galeana, Guerrero;civil engineer; owner of Jaguar Servicios Inmobiliarios, SA de CV and Servicios deLogstica Aeroportuaria, SA de CV; elected mayor Cancn with the backing of thePRD, PT, and Convergencia.

Coalitions Todospor Quintana Roo coalition, composed of the PRD, PT, and Convergencia, is

backing Snchez Martnez; the PAN contemplated entering this pact until chargesof political espionage surfaced. Analysis Borgeshould win behind a unified PRI; the discovery of political espionage carried

out by Manuel Vera Salinas, identified as an advisor to populist Greg Snchez, hasdelivered a severe blow to the standard-bearer of the Left; the state electoral institutedoes not permit public opinion polls related to the contest.


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Figure 10: Sinaloa (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Outgoing Culiacn Mayor Jess Vizcarra Caldern; born March 17, 1960; affluent

businessman; mayor of Culiacn (2007-present).

PANCandidate

See Coalitions

LeftCandidate

See Coalitions

Coalitions Senator Mario MALOVA Lpez Valdez; born Jan. 18, 1957; Cubiri de la Loma,Sinaloa; a longtime member of the PRI, he enjoys the backing of the PAN, the PRD,and Convergencia.

Analysis Too Close to Call. MALOVA is giving PRI nominee Vizcarra Caldern the race of hislife; the PANs Flix Heriberto Guerra, now secretary of social development, captured

45.6% of the vote, just 1.2% less than the PRIs Jess Aguilar Padilla in 2004; pollrespondents cite the seriousness of drug trafficking and the narcotics situation hasgotten worse in recent years; however, even though a 20-year-old photo of Vizcarrataken in a group with capo Ismael El Mayo Zambada Garca, the prista still held a

slight lead; a mid-April GCE/Milenio poll; it showed Vizcarra (46.8%) ahead ofMALOVA (41.6%)with a margin of error of +/-3.%; strong pro-MALOVA mayorcandidates in Culiacn (Eduardo Ortiz, Jess Patrn Montalvo, or Carlos Felton),Mazatln (Alejandro Higuera Osuna) and Gusave (Armando Leyson)


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Figure 11: Tamaulipas (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Federal Deputy Rodolfo Torre Cant; born Feb. 14, 1964, Cd. Victoria; MD degree

(UAS); physician and party activist; backed by former governor Manuel CavazosLerma (1992-98).

PANCandidate

Jos Julin Sacramento Garza; born Aug. 26, 1956, Matamoros Tamps; degree inAgricultural Engineering (UANL); federal deputy (2003-06); senator (2006-present).To avoid the influence of the drug cartels, the PANs National Executive Committeeselected the gubernatorial candidates, as well as the 43 mayoral nominees and the 36state legislative aspirants.

LeftCandidate

PRD President Jess Ortega courted Lino Korrodi, President Foxs money-man, but hedeclined to run.

Coalitions N/AAnalysis Torre Cant

The PRI has never lost a governorship in this state; although Sacramento Garza iswell regarded, he has trailed badly in every opinion poll.


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Figure 12: Tlaxcala (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Mariano Gonzlez Zarur Born 1949; Apizaco, Tlax.; CPA (UNAM); joined PRI in

1970; mayor of Apizaco (1989-92); senator (2000-2006) ; narrowly lost governorshipto Hctor Ortiz Ortiz in 2004; deputy (2006-09);garnered the nomination over Lorena Cullar, the presumed choice of PRI PresidentBeatriz Paredes Rangel.

PANCandidate

Adriana Dvila Fernndez; born Dec. 30, 1970; Apizaco; B.A. in communicationscience; reporter for ElUniversal-Tlaxcala (1994) andLa Noticia (1996); coordinatedthe presidential campaign of Felipe Caldern inTlaxcala (2006); federal deputy 2006-09; selected by the PANs National ExecutiveCommittee to seek governorship; the party has assigned various incumbent PAN stateexecutives to assist candidateswith Guanajuato Gov. Juan Manuel Oliva lending ahand in Tlaxcala.

LeftCandidate

Sen. Minerva Hernndez Ramos; born Sept. 15, 1969; Tlaxcala; B.A. in publicaccounting (UAT); M.A. in public accounting (UAT); federal deputy (2003-06);senator (2006-present)

Coalitions United for Tlaxcala, composed of the PRI, the PVEM, and the PS, is backingGonzlez Zarur.For the Progress of Tlaxcala, made up of the PAN, PANAL, and the AlianzaCiudadana, is supporting Dvila Fernndez.Transparency and Honesty for Tlaxcala, comprised of PRD, PT, Convergencia, and

members of the DIA, has lined up behind Hernndez Ramos.Analysis Gonzlez Zarur; a GCE/Milenio poll conducted in mid-April found Gonzlez

Zarur (27.3%) barely leading Dvila (23.8%), with Hernndez running third

(13.5%)margin of error +/- 4%.If outgoing governor Ortiz fails to pull out all stops for the PAN candidate, two thingswill happen: Dvila Fernndez will lose and his standing in the PAN will plummet.


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Figure 13: Veracruz (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Javier Duarte de Ochoa; born Sept. 19, 1973; Veracruz, VC; BA in economics

(Instituto Complutense de Madrid); M.A. in law, economics, and public policyInstituto Universitario Ortega y Gasset; M.A. in public administration (IPADE); andPh.D. in economics (Instituto Complutense de Madrid); posts in public administration,including General Coordinator for Promoting Social Participation (1995-97/Gobernacin), subsecretary of finance and administration (2004-08/VC); secretaryof finances and planning (2008-09/VC); private secretary to Deputy Fidel HerreraBeltrn (1997-2000); technical secretary to Committee on Legislative Studies (2000-04/Senate); federal deputy (2009-12).

PANCandidate

Former Deputy Miguel ngel Yunes Linares; born Dec. 5, 1952, Soledad deDoblado, VC; law degree (UV); diploma in political analysis (UIA); held many partyand official posts, including legal adviser to Veracruz government (1977); state

legislator (1980); coordinator of states for CNOP (1981-82); oficial mayorof the GranComisin of the Chamber of Deputies (1982-85); DF committeeman (1987-88);technical secretary of CEN (1991);.federal deputy (1991-92); secretary of governmentand coordinator of the State Public Security Council in VC (1992-97); undersecretaryof public security (Gobernacin); and executive secretary of the National PublicSecurity System (2000-06).

LeftCandidate

Sen. Dante Delgado Rannauro (Convergencia); born 1950; Alvarado, VC; lawdegree (UV); auxiliary secretary to prvate secretary of President Echeverra (1974);posts in Department of Fisheries (1977-78); SEP delegate in Yucatn, Oaxaca, andVeracruz (1979-83); SEP subsecretary (1983-85); secretary general of Veracruzgovernment (1986-88); interim governor (1988-93); ambassador to Italy (1993);

imprisoned for fraud; left the PRI to create Convergenia in 1997.

Coalitions The Veracruz Forward alliance, composed of the PRI, PVEM, and PV, is backingDuarte.

The Viva Veracruz coalition, made up of PAN and PANAL, is backing Yunes.

The For Changing Veracruz, comprised of the PRD, PT, and Convergencia, hasaligned with Delgado.

Analysis Duarte de Ochoa: Wheeler-dealer Gov. Fidel Herrera has firm control over the PRIsapparatus in the state; moreover, two of the PAN aspirants for the nominationSen.

Juan BuenoTorio and Gerardo Buganza Salmern --are not supporting Yunes; in fact,Buganza resigned from the PAN over the candidate selection and joined the campaignagainst Yunes. In her book, Los demonios en el edn, author Lydia Cacho accusedYunes of having links to Jean Saccar Kuri, who allegedly ran a child exploitation andpederasty ring in Cancn.


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Figure 14: Zacatecas (July 4)

PRI

Candidate

Miguel Alejandro Alonso Reyes; born Sept. 20, 1971; Zacatecas, Zac; adjunct

secretary to the Mexican ambassador in the U.K. (1993-94); member of the advisers tothe secretary of social development in the D.F. (1995); adviser to the chairman of theFederal Pact Commission of the Senate; mayor of Zacatecas (2001-04); ex PRD statelegislator; state secretary of tourism; close to Ricardo Monreal vila.

PANCandidate

Cuauhtmoc Caldern Galvn; born 1975, Zacatecas, Zac.; mayor of Zacatecas,Zac. (2007-10); a stronger candidate might have been Sen. Jos Isabel Trejo Reyes,who barely lost an internal primary45.14% to 51.40% for Caldern; Gov. Garcareportedly rounded up votes for Caldern, perceiving him as the weaker of the twocontenders.

Left

Candidate

Sen. Antonio Meja Haro; born June 10, 1957, Juchipila, Zac.; degree in veterinary

science (UAZ); state legislator (1998-2001); state secretary of AgriculturalDevelopment (2000-2003); federal deputy (2003-06); senator (2006-present); twicedirector of faculty f medicine, veterinary science, and zoology at the UAZ;(choice ofoutgoing governor Amalia Garca).

Coalitions Alliance for Hope made up of the PRI, PVEM, and PANAL, is backing AlonsoReyes.

Analysis Too Close to Call. Even though conventional wisdom holds that outgoing GovernorAmalia Garca Medina will find a way to ensure the election of her dauphin, MejaHaro, a split within the Left may block her ability to do so: David Monreal, brotherof former Gov. Ricardo Monreal vila, a Garca hater, is running on the PT ticket; heis likely to pull votes from Fresnillo, the states largest municipality where he servedas mayor. Moreover, scandals have plagued Garca--with the result that a mid-AprilGCE/Milenio poll showed Alonso Reyes (23.4%) ahead of Meja (17.2%), Crdenas(15.8%), and Monreal (8.5%); Ricardo Monreal might even persuade his brother todrop out of the racefor a priceand throw his support to the PRI candidate; MiguelAlonsos good looks enhances his appear to distaff voters, some of whom hoistbanners saying : Governor Miguel, I want you on my mattress.

George W. Grayson is the Class of 1938 Professor at the College of William & Mary, a seniorassociation at CSIS, and an associate scholar at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He has

published more than 20 books and monographs on Mexico, includingMexico: Narco-Violenceand a Failed State? (Transaction Press, 2010). He has made 200 research trips to Mexico,appears regularly in the national media, and is a member of Phi Beta [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

july 4, 2010 gubernatorial elections in mexico

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