july 2014 newsle terre vol-7-issue-1-1st...-1
TRANSCRIPT
Chairman Message
N TERREEWSLE
Monsoon is defined as reversalof “wind direction” in tropicalregions and its prediction mustadhere to the time of this reversal.Rain is one of the consequences ofreversal of “wind direction”. InIndian context, about 75 to 80percent of annual rainfall is realizedduring South west monsoon season.Having an agro based economy, inpublic perception the monsoonprediction became synonymous toprediction of total quantum ofrainfall during SW Monsoon seasonwith its spatial and temporaldistribution. The severe famineduring 1877 made the necessity ofMonsoon rains forecast as essentialinput for financial budget. The firstregular long range forecast ofmonsoon rainfall was issued on 4thJune 1886 by Sir H.F. Blanford. It wasbased on snowfall in Himalayasduring winter. Sir Gilbert Walkercorrelated the global circulation andits various facets with monsoonrainfall. From 1886 to 1934 longrange forecast was issued for wholeIndia (including Myanmar), zonewise for NE India, NW India andPeninsula. But in absence of suitablepredictor for NE India from 1935 to1987 long range of monsoon rainfallwas issued for NW India andPeninsula only. In 1988, IMDdeveloped a 16 parameter model toissue long range forecast for wholecountry. From 2003 Long rangeforecast is given in 2 stages one in lastweek of April (based on 5parameters) and second stageupdates in June (based on 6parameters). Even though IndiaMeteorological Department ispioneer in the area, now manynational and international institutesare working in the field. Those areThe Space Applications Centre -A h m e d a b a d , C e n t r e f o rMathemat ica l Mode l ing andComputer Simulation - Bangalore,Indian Institute of Technology -Bhubaneswar, Indian Institute ofScience - Bangalore, Centre forDisaster Mitigation, Jain University -Ba n g a l o r e , a n d C en t e r fo r
Issue
7
july
2014 Monsoon Prediction for India −2014
D e ve l o p m e n t o f A d va n c e dComputing Pune. The NationalCen t e r s fo r Env i ronmen t a lPrediction - USA, InternationalResearch Institute for Climate andSociety - USA, Meteorological Office- UK, Meteo - France, The EuropeanCenter for Medium Range WeatherForecasts - UK, Japan MeteorologicalAgency, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology,A s i a n - P a c i f i c E c o n o m i cCooperation (APEC) Climate Centre- Korea and World MeteorologicalOrganization's Lead Centre for LongRange Forecasting - Multi-ModelEnsemble etc. The list is mentionedjust to appraise importance given atnational and international level tomonsoon prediction. The forecastsand outputs from these Institutes areconsidered before finalizing theformal forecast.
Rainfall over the country as awhole for the 2014 southwestmonsoon season (June to September)is likely to be below normal (90-96%of long period average (LPA)).
Quantitatively, monsoon seasonrainfall for the country as a whole islikely to be 93% of the long periodaverage (88.8cm) with a model errorof ±4%.
85% of LPA (61.5 cm) overNorth-West India,
94% of LPA (97.6cm) overCentral India,
93% of LPA (71.6 cm) overSouth Peninsula and
99% of LPA (143.8 cm) overNorth-East India all with a modelerror of ± 8 %.
Main highlights of Long RangeForecast of South West Monsoon2014 are
Region wise, the season rainfallis likely to be -
Competitions forYouth
Here's a chance to
participate and win
exciting prizes and
recognition on the
global stage to all our
young friends. TERRE
Policy Centre and
Sanskruti Centre for
Cultural Excellence
have organized an essay
competition and a
mobile short-film
competition as pre-
events to the
Environment Film
Festival organized in
London on the occasion
of World Ozone Day on
12th and 13th September
2014.
Who can participate:
12-15 year students all
over the worldFor details:
Who can participate:
15-25 year olds over
the worldFor details:
Essay Competition :
Mobile film-makingcompetition:
Http://terrepolicycentr
e.com/pdf/Competitions-
for-Youth-Essay-
Writing-Contest.pdf
Http://terrepolicycentr
e.com/pdf/Competitions-
for-Youth-film-making-
competition.pdf
FREE REGISTRATION!
"Answer to a Billion Drops Question"
Continued on page 4
PAGE 2 N TERREEWSLE
Number of the Month
Source: OECD ENVIRONMENTALOUTLOOK TO 2050: The Consequences
of Inaction
70 %
Cities are likely to
absorb the total
world population
growth between 2010
and 2050. By 2050,
nearly 70% of the
world population is
projected to be living
in urban areas.
“
“Interesting video
Man - evolution and pollution: Arehumans running the earth in the nameof development? A must watch videoto ponder what it means to give and
what, to receive.
http://youtu.be/VPtKOrwf1h0
In our world of 7 billion, 1 billionsuffer from undernutrition, while another1 billion suffer from obesity. TABLEFOR TWO rights this imbalance bysimultaneously addressing the twoopposing problems through a unique"calorie transfer" program. Bypartnering with over 600corporat ions, univers i t ies,restaurants, and organizationsimplementing their program inthese establ i shments andproducts, TABLE FOR TWOhas served millions of healthymeals to both sides of the "table."
On one side people are eatinghealthier meals, and on the other childrenare receiving nutritious school meals. Inthis way, we can say that when you dine atTABLE FOR TWO, you never dine alone.
Mr. Rajendra Shende had theopportunity to meet Masa Kogurefounder of TABLE FOR TWO at OECDForum in April 2014. Here are Masa'sreplies to some quick questions by Mr.Shende-
When I saw the great and silly inequalityin food distribution exists in our world, abillion people suffer from "under-nutrtiion"of chronic hunger and malnutrition whileanother billion faces "over-nutrition" ofoverweight and obesity. We thought we can fix
t h e p r o b l e m b yencouraging people indeveloped nations to eatless and re-use the surplusto feed those in need.
I am pleased that ouridea has been accepted and well perceived, butat the same time feel we need to accelerate ourgrowth to save more lives.
To spread the initiative more broadly andmake it truly global.
Food is a part of everyone's daily life. Soanybody can take action and make changes.
more information
1. How the idea of this innovativeconcept came up in your mind?
2. Are you pleasedwith its success?
3. What are your future plans?
4. Finally, any message or suggestions toensure food security?
Http://www.tablefor2.org/home
For one and all: TABLE FOR TWO
Spotlight
Quick QuestionWhat is the scientific name for mosquito larvae eating fish?
A) B)
C) D)
Poecilia affins Poecilia gambusia
Gambusia affins Gambusia reticulata
If you know the answer, send in your entry to us at : [email protected]
For the previous quiz, we received a few entries but none was correct. The answer isBarbados island is located in North Atlantic Ocean.
PAGE 3N TERREEWSLE
Graphic
India monsoon
forecast
India's June-September
monsoon rainfall is
likely to be “well
distributed” and
“adequate”, according
to a forecast for the
season by weather
analytics firm Skymet
Weather Services Pvt.
Ltd, boosting the
likelihood of an
economic recovery if
the prediction is
proven right.
Credit: SkymetFurther read- http://www.skymet.net/index.php
“Human use,population, and technologyhave reached that certain stagewhere mother Earth no longeraccepts our presence withsilence.”
― Dalai Lama XIV
15 June 2013 was thedarkest day for the state ofUttaranchal. Kedarnath -one of the importantpilgrimage centers in Indiaand considered as one ofthe Char Dhams (fourmust-visit pilgrimagecenters) was terriblyaffected due to cloudbursts.
A debate over thenumber of people killed isstill there. The death toll isbetween 5000 to 10000,and many people are stillmissing. In India, this isnot the first incidence off l a s h f l o o d s a n dcloudbursts. In 1908 onecloud burst was reported.After a span of 62 years,another cloud burstoccurred in July 1970 inUttarakhand. Since 1990s,17 cloudbursts haveh a p p e n e d t o c a u s emassive damage to livesand property, of which atleast 11 cloudburstsoccurred only in the hillystates of Uttarakhand,Himachal Pradesh andJammu & Kashmir. In
fact, now this phenomenons e e m s t o b e h i g h l yfrequent: 11 out of the 17cloud bursts occurred onlyduring 2010-2013. Expertssay that the increase inf r e q u e n c y o f s u c hincidences is because ofclimate change. While wecan easily categorize this asa natural disaster, I attributethis as a human-maded i s a s t e r . E c o l o g i c a ldisasters are a result ofdisturbance in the naturalrhythm due to adoptinglifestyles and technologypractices that change thebasic constitution ofnature. Uttarakhand, theplace where the disasterhappened in June, is locatedat the foothills of theHima l ayan mounta inregion and is abundantlyrich in forests, mountainsand water and is an idealplace for hydropowergeneration. We clearlyknow the real culprits inthis case. It is not nature butw e h u m a n b e i n g s .Especially the hill regionsdue to their topography areextremely fragile, anddeforestation along themountain tracts wouldmean inviting the peril. Thefactor seems to be a keytrigger in influencing thedisaster. Dams involvemassive destruction of
fragile mountain ecosystemthrough extracting resourcesfrom the riverbeds forconstruction, drilling tunnels,b l a s t ing rocks, l ay ingtransmission lines, runningof giant turbines, along withaltering the hydrology of theregion.
We know that most ofthis demand for hydroelectricp o w e r a n d b e t t e rinfrastructure comes fromthe urban dwellers, who donot even understand therelevance of ecosystemservices to their everyday life.The problem lies in themindset of most of theurbanized people and policymakers who think that am a g i c w a n d c a l l e dtechnology is the key to allproblems in India. Ourtechnologies have proved tobe regressive in terms ofincreasing the size of ourecological footprints.
First of all we need toease the pressure of humansettlements and promotemore balanced developmentmodels. We should respectthe ecologically fragile zonesand protect them fromexploitation. The growthshould allow nature tobreathe, regenerate andrecuperate.
Man Made Natural calamities - Uttaranchal
- From the Editor’s Desk
MONSOON FORECASTIndia's monsoon rainfall is likely to be
"well distributed" and "adequate",
according to a forecast for the season by
weather analytics firm Skymet, boosting
the likelihood of an economic recovery if
the predicition is proven right
Jun-Sep 2013
scale
indicates
percentage
diviation
from that
region's
normal
50
40
30
20
10
0
- 10
- 20
- 30
- 40
- 50
Rainfall
Depature
All India
+3%
Rainfall probabilities
June July August September
+5% of LPALPA=16.3cm
+5%LPA=28.9cm
+3%LPA=26.1cm
+3%LPA=17.3cm
78%
7% 15%
62%
13% 25%
71%
22%7%
50%
22% 28%
LPA (long-period average) is the 50 year average of rainfall
over India and is 89cm
Source : Skymet
TERRE Policy Centre
City Office:
Rural Office and demonstration centre:
22 Budhwar Peth, Pune - 411002
Pandit Ajgaokar Scheme, Khandobacha Mal, Bhugaon, Pune - 411042
PAGE 4 N TERREEWSLE
For feedback, suggestions and contributions contact us at
DECLARATION: TERRE Policy Centre is a non-profit organization and this NewsleTERRE is a purely informative and non-commercial activity of TERRE Policy Centre. Thesource of information is always credited, where applicable.
EditorDr. Vinitaa Apte (President, TERRE)
NewsleTERRE:
Editorial Team : Mrunmayi Apte, Amol [email protected]
We are now CLEANand GREEN! We usesolar energy to extract
precious resources fromMother Earth!
green development ?
Al Gore gives surprise endorsement toAustralian mining tycoon
This fish eats mosquito larvae, may keepmalaria at bay
Using conventionaltechniques likespraying ofinsecticides,repellants, fogging
and other chemicals to curtail the growth ofmosquitoes not only pollutes the....Http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/flora-fauna/This-fish-eats-mosquito-larvae-may-keep-malaria-at-bay/articleshow/36011158.cms
l Gore teams upwith climatechange sceptic andAustralian MPClive Palmer for a
"gobsmacking" unveiling in Canberra ofthe mining tycoon's environmental policies.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/10925710/Al-Gore-gives-surprise-endorsement-to-Australian-mining-tycoon.html
Water-cleanup catalysts tackle biomassupgrading
Rice University chemicalengineer Michael Wonghas spent a decadeamassing evidence thatpalladium-gold
nanoparticles are excellent catalysts forcleaning polluted water, but even he wassurprised ...Http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140626141828.htm
Journey of Octopus Discovery RevealsThem to Be Playful, Curious, Smart
The Greeks had mythsabout them. Koreanseat them alive. JamesBond tangled withone. They have three
hearts and skin that can change color 177times an hour.Http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/06/140625-octopus-evolution-brain-eyes-memory-cannibalism-robotics/
NETWORK
NEWS
The monthly rainfall over thecountry as whole is likely to be 93% ofits LPA during July and 96% of LPAduring August both with a model errorof ± 9 %. Regional forecast andmonthly forecast has wide margin oferror and difficult to use in decisionmaking. We should keep in mind thatlong range forecast is issued for regionand for whole season. As it is anaverage value, there will be variationboth at higher side and lower side ofthe forecasted value from place toplace. Many a times most of the seasonreels under deficit and make up isachieved in last part of the season.Even in good monsoon years on anaverage about 8 % area reels underdrought while in bad monsoon yearabout 1% area gets excess rains.Sometimes within meteorologicalhomogeneous region some part reelsunder drought while other gets excessrain. Thus even though long rangeforecast became reasonably correct,the damage to crops etc becomes morethan expected. We should understandthat long range forecast is meant forpolicy decisions and large scaleplanning like release of water fromreservoirs, making availability of seedsand fertilizers, imports of food grainand similar disaster mitigation majors.It is not meant for day to day fieldoperations. For the agriculturalpurposes farmers should refer tomedium and short range weatherforecasts and advisories issued by IMDand agricultural experts. Even thoughdownscaling of monsoon predictionboth at scale of area and time isdesirable we have to wait little more. Inconclusion the monsoon predictionsshould be used as Decision Makingtool keeping in view of high variabilityof rainfall both in space and time andthe limitations of the forecastingtechniques.
- Mr. Nilkanth Y. ApteDy. Director General of Meteorology (Retd.),
India Meteorological Department
From page no. 1...