p. 1

Climate Policy: Mitigation and Cooperation

Jürgen ScheffranInstitute of Geography, CliSAP/CEN

Universität Hamburg

“Energy Landscapes and Climate Policy“(63-951)Lecture 7, June 16+23, 2016

p. 2

The preventive role of mitigation strategies

CO2 emissions

CO2 concentration in atmosphere

Global mean temperature

Natural resources

Climate risks and conflicts

Energy in production and consumption

Mitigation

p. 3

Climate change mitigation

Mitigation: measures or actions to avoid increasing radiative forcing in order to reduce global warming.

Reductions in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, either by reducing their sources or by increasing their sinks.

Ways of mitigation:Reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and servicesIncreasing efficiency gainsIncreasing use and development of low-carbon technologiesReducing non-fossil fuel emissions

Most means of mitigation appear effective only for preventing further warming, not at reversing existing warming.

p. 4

Greenhous Gas

EmissionsG

Population

P

LaborProductivity

W/P

EnergyIntensity

E/W

EmissionIntensity

G/Ex xx

Factors of greenhouse gas emissions:The Kaya Identity

=

G = (G/E) * (E/W) * (W/P) * P = g * e * w * P

•P is population•G is greenhouse gas emissions of this population (e.g. CO2)•W is the wealth of the population (GDP)•E is the primary energy consumption of the population

w = (W/P) is per-capita wealth (labor productivity)e = (E/W) is the energy intensity of wealth (GDP)g = (G/E) is the carbon intensity of energy.

Yoichi Kaya, 1993, Environment, Energy, and Economy: strategies for sustainability

p. 5

Decomposition of global energy-related CO2 emission changes

IPCC 2007: WG-3TPES: Total Primary Energy SupplyGDP-ppp: Income by purchasing power parity

p. 6

Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions by groups of gases 1970-2010

IPCC 2014

p. 7

Regional and sector distribution of emission trends

IPCC-WG3 (2014)

IPCC-WG3 (2014)

p. 8

CO2 emissions in world regions

IPCC 2014

p. 9

Emissions of land use

p. 10

Annual primary energy consumptionincluding traditional biomass (1971 to 2003)

In million ton oil equivalent (Mtoe) = 42 GigaJouleEECCA = countries of Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia.

IPCC 2007: WG-3

p. 11

Structural change in world primary energy

IPCC-WG3 (2014)

p. 12

Distribution of regional GHG emissions in relation to population and GDP (excluding international transport)

Cumulative distribution of GHG emissions per capita

Cumulative distribution of GHG emissions per GDP

NAM: North-America, POECD: Pacific Organisation for Economic Co‐operation & Development, EIT: Eastern Europe & former Soviet Union, WEU: Western EU, EAS: East Asia, MNA: Middle East & North Africa, South East Asia & Pacific (PAS), LAM: Latin America, SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa, SAS: South Asia

Source: IPCC 2014, WG-3

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GHG emissions and income levels

p. 14

GHG emissions per region and capita

IPCC WG-3 (2014)

p. 15

Factor decomposition of territorial fossil energy CO2 emission at regional level

IPCC WG-3 (2014)

p. 16

Possible emission paths for the 2oC goal

Source: WBGU 2009

p. 17

Energy mixand land use

Technicalinnovation

and diffusion

Substitutionand

energy saving

Lifestylesand

consumptionpatterns

Investmentin social

and human capital

Institutionaland

technicalinnovation

Control ofpopulation

growth

Demographictransition

Strategies for emission reduction

G: EmissionsE: Primary energy

consumptionW: Wealth (GDP) P: Population

Strategies for a Sustainability Transition

Greenhous Gas

EmissionsG

Population

P

LaborProductivity

W/P

EnergyIntensity

E/W

EmissionIntensity

G/Ex xx=

p. 18

Energysource

DistributionParticipation

Risk Utility

Humanneeds

- +

Conservation Equity CooperationNegotiation

EfficiencyRisk reduction

Sufficiency

E • d • p •(v-r)=V*

Strategies for sustainable energy use

V=E • d • p • (v-r) = V*

p. 19

How can emissions be reduced?

Sector Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available (selected).

Energy Supply

Efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 Capture and Storage

Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning

Buildings Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and air-conditioning; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances

p. 20

Sector Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available (selected).

Industry More efficient electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling; control of non-CO2 gas emissions

Agriculture Land management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques; improved nitrogen fertilizer application; dedicated energy crops

Forests Afforestation; reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation; use of forestry products for bioenergy

Waste Landfill methane recovery; waste incineration with energy recovery; composting; recycling and waste minimization

How can emissions be reduced?

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Policies to realize mitigation of climate change

Effectiveness of policies depends on national circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and implementation

• Regulations and standards • Taxes and charges • Tradable permits • Financial incentives• Voluntary agreements • Information instruments • Research and development• Integrating climate policies in broader development

policies

p. 22

Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to climate change mitigation

Reduction of car usage and efficient driving style, in relation to urban planning and availability of public transport

Reduced meat consumption

Staff training, reward systems, regular feedback and documentation of existing practices in industrial organizations

Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice in buildings.

p. 23

WBGU 2011

Vision for global renewable energy transitions by 2050

p. 24

Industrial activity over the supply chain and options for climate change mitigation

Source: IPCC 2014, WG-3

p. 25

World’s growth of main minerals and manufacturing products (1970=1)

Source: IPCC 2014, WG-3

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Hierarchy of waste management

Source: IPCC 2014, WG-3

p. 27

Multiple ecosystem services, goods and benefits provided by landmitigation actions to enhance climate regulation

Agriculture, Forestry, Other Land Uses: AFOLUSource: IPCC 2014, WG-3

p. 28

Potential co-benefits (green arrows) and adverse side-effects (orange arrows) of sectoral mitigation measures

Arrows up/down: positive/ negative effect on respective objective or concern; (?) uncertain net effect

Source: IPCC 2014, WG-3(r = robust, l = low, m = medium, h = high)

p. 29

Overview of potential co-benefits (green arrows) and adverse side effects (orange arrows) of main mitigation measures in the transport sector

Arrows up/down: positive/ negative effect on respective objective or concern; (?) uncertain net effect

Source: IPCC 2014, WG-3 (r = robust, l = low, m = medium, h = high)

p. 30

Wide variation in estimates for mitigation

IPCC AR5 WGIII, Summary for Policy makers

• Estimates of aggregate economic costs of mitigation vary widely and are highly sensitive to model design, assumptions and scenarios, including technologies and timing.

• Reaching 450ppm CO2eq by 2100 entails global consumption loss of mitigation of 1% - 4% (med. 1.7%) in 2030, 2% to 6% (med. 3.4%) in 2050, and 3% to 11% (med 4.8%) in 2100 relative to consumption in baseline scenarios (growing 300% to 900% over the century).

• This corresponds to reduction of consumption growth by 0.04 to 0.14 per year (med. 0.06)% over the century, relative to baseline of 1.6% to 3% per year.

• Not included are benefits of reduced climate change as well as co-benefits and adverse side-effects .

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Estimates of financing needs for mitigation technologies, by source and stage of technological maturity

Source: UNFCCC 2009

p. 32

New investment in clean energy by sectorQ1 2004–Q4 2012 ($BN)

p. 33

Global mitigation costs (consumption loss) under varying assumptions regarding technology availability for long-term stabilization

Source: IPCC 2015, WG3‘All options’: standard technology portfolio assumptions in different models‘biomax’ and ‘biomin’: double and half the standard biomass potential of 200 EJ ‘noccs’ : excludes CCS from the mitigation portfolio‘nonuke’ and ‘norenew’: constrain deployment levels of nuclear and RE to baseline level‘X’: indicates non-attainability of the 400 ppmv CO2eq level in the case of limited technology options

p. 34

Estimates of financing for mitigation technologies (2009)

Abbreviations: CDM = clean development mechanism, ECA = export credit agency, FDI = foreign direct investment, GEF = Global Environment Facility, JI = joint implementation, MDB = multilateral development bank, ODA = official development assistance, RD&D= research, development and deployment. (Source: UNFCCC 2009)

p. 35

Global environmental governance

“We understand global environmental governance (GEG) as the sum of organizations, policy instruments, financing mechanisms, rules, procedures and norms that regulate the processes of global environmental protection.”

“Even though the GEG system has achieved much in the way of new treaties, more money and a more participatory and active system than anyone might have imagined three decades ago, environmental degradation continues.” (Biermann et al.)

Form of arrangements:Laws

Informal rules and regulations (e.g. practices or guidelines)

Institutions for various actors: state authorities, intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), non-governmental organizations (NGOs), private sector entities, other civil society actors, and individuals

Ad hoc entities: coalitions, networks

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United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

First comprehensive global agreement to control global warming.

Anthropogenic GHGs recognized as major factor causing global warming

Monitoring of GHG emissions

No specific emission limits

Established process and negotiations towards specific steps

Process and structure:Signed at 1992 Rio Earth Summit, ratified 1994

185 countries ratified 1994, now 192 members.

Annex I: industrialized countries and economies in transition

Annex II countries: OECD members, excluding economies in transition

Non-Annex I: Developing countries

Conference of the Parties (COP), Secretariat in Bonn

Subsidiary Bodies (SBSTA, SBI), Protocols (Kyoto).

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Country groups(classification of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol)

• Annex I EIT (Economies in Transition): Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

• Europe Annex II & M&T: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom; Monaco and Turkey

• JANZ: Japan, Australia, New Zealand.

• Middle East: Bahrain, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen

• Latin America & the Caribbean: Antigua & Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla, St. Vincent-Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela

• Non-Annex I East Asia: Cambodia, China, Korea (DPR), Laos (PDR), Mongolia, Republic of Korea, Viet Nam.

• South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Comoros, Cook Islands, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, (FederatedStates of), Myanmar, Nauru, Niue, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippine, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste,Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu

• North America: Canada, United States of America.

• Other non-Annex I: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia Herzegovina, Cyprus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Malta, Moldova, San Marino, Serbia, Tajikistan,Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Republic of Macedonia

• Africa: Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

p. 38

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Calls for all signatories including developing countries:• to develop their inventories of GHG emission• formulate and implement national and regional programs

related to mitigation and adaptation• Promote and cooperate in development, application,

diffusion, including transfer of technologies aimed at GHG emission reduction

• Promote sinks of greenhouse gases• Cooperate in adaptation to impacts of climate change• Promote and cooperate in increasing scientific

understanding, education training and awareness raising

National Communications: Annex-1: 4th Communication, developing countries: 1st and 2nd Communication

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UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Article 2 ultimate objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient

•to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change,

•to ensure that food production is not threatened and

•to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainablemanner.”

Article 3:“The Parties should cooperate to promote a supportive and open international economic system that would lead to sustainable economic growth and development in all Parties“

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United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Main responsibility to combat climate change on rich countries:

– "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and their social and economic conditions".

Annex I countries: committed to reduce GHG emission to below 1990 levels, allocating reduced annual allowances

Poorer nations more vulnerable and have right to economic development

Supports concept of "sustainable development".

Develop and share environmentally sound technologies and know-how.

Need to educate people about climate change.

Developing countries not required to reduce emission levels to

avoid restrictions on their development

sell emissions credits to meet emission target of other nations

get money and technologies for low-carbon from Annex II countries.

p. 41

Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC

Adopted in December 1997, entered into force in February 2005

Ratification by minimum of 55 States with at least 55% of the CO2-emissions of industrialized countries

2009: 184 states have signed and ratified the protocol, 37 industrialized countries (Annex 1) commited themselves to GHG reduction

Legally binding, credible and verifiable targets and timetables for cutting emissions (average 2008-2012 compare to 1990 levels):

Overall 5% reduction for developed countries

8% in the EU, Switzerland, most Central and Eastern Europe: e.g. -28% Luxembourg, -21% Denmark, -25% Germany, +25% Greece, +27% Portugal

7% in the US (no ratification), 6% in Canada, Hungary, Japan, and Poland.

Stabilize emissions in New Zealand, Russia, and Ukraine

Emission increase in Norway (up to 1%), Australia (8%), Iceland (10%)

Flexibility to countries with economies in transition.

p. 42

Kyoto instruments and mechanisms

1.Market for trading emission credits

2.Joint implementation (JI): financing projects in other developed countries.

3.Clean Development Mechanism: credit for financing emissions-reducing or emissions-avoiding projects in developing countries.

•Clean Development Mechanism

KyotoMechanisms

p. 43

Carbon off-setting

http://www.go-green.ae/uploads/carbonoffsets(1).jpg

p. 44

Contraction and convergence between industrial- and developing countries

Developedcountries

Global average emissions per capita

Year of convergence

Developing countries

YearStart Year

Emis

sion

per

cap

ita

Goal: Allocate emissions to equalize per capita emissions at a future point

p. 45

The importance of a “price of carbon”

Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes.

Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulation

For stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices should reach 20-80 US$/tCO2eq by 2030 (5-65 if “induced technological change” happens)

At these carbon prices large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected.

p. 46

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Objectives:

(1)assist parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC

(2)assist parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments by GHG emission caps.

Allowing Annex I countries to meet part of their caps using "credits" from CDM emission reduction projects in developing countries

CDM allows industrialized countries to invest in emission reductions wherever it is cheapest globally.

By 1st January 2005, projects submitted to the CDM amounted to less than 100 MtCO2e of projected savings by 2012.

By end of 2008, over 4,000 CDM projects submitted for validation.

By 19 April 2012, 4013 projects have been registered as CDM projects, with an estimated 538 million ton CO2eq of emission reductions per year.

2001 to 2012: expected 1.5 billion tons of CO2e emission reductions.

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p. 48

Certified Emission Reductions by country

(by October 2012)

(Graph: Wikipedia)

p. 49

Joint implementation (JI)

Objectives:

Annex I country can invest in emission reduction projects in any other Annex I country as an alternative to reducing emissions domestically.

Countries can lower the costs of complying with their Kyoto targets by investing in GHG reductions in an Annex I country where reductions are cheaper, and then applying the credit for those reductions towards their commitment goal.

Example: replacing coal-fired power plant with more efficient combined heat and power plant.

Most JI projects in "economies in transition" (Annex B Kyoto Protocol), e.g. Russia and Ukraine

Complex process of receiving credit for JI projects

Emission Reduction Units (ERUs): one tonne of CO2 equiv.

Each Annex I party has a predetermined amount of Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) based on 1990 GHG emission levels.

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Emission trading

http://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/infogram-particles-700/frederiquemg1362629863.jpghttp://cdn.downtoearth.org.in/dte/userfiles/images/regulator.jpg

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Carbon Emission Trading (ET)

Emissions trading: administrative approach to control pollution by providing economic incentives for achieving reductions in the emissions of pollutants (cap and trade).

Authority sets a limit or cap on the amount of a pollutant that can be emitted.

Companies or other groups are issued emission permits and are required to hold an equivalent number of allowances (or credits)

To increase emissions companies must buy credits from those who pollute less, trading allowances

European Union Emission Trading Scheme since 2005

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Economic incentives of emission trading

MAC: marginal abatement cost

p. 53

European Union Emission Trading Scheme

World’s largest multi-national GHG emissions trading scheme in conjunction with Kyoto Protocol.

Phase I (2005-2007): 15 EU member states: caps CO2 from large installations, almost half of the EU's emissions; trading in EU and with developing world through Kyoto's Clean Development Mechanism. Much criticism due to oversupply of allowances and the distribution method of allowances (grandfathering rather than auctioning). However, the number of allowances, based on estimated needs, turns out to be excessive; consequently the price of first-period allowances falls to zero in 2007.

Phase 2 (2008-2012): Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein join. Number of allowances is reduced by 6.5% for the period, but economic downturn cuts emissions, and thus demand, even more. This leads to a surplus of unused allowances and credits which weighs on carbon price. Aviation brought into the system.

Phase 3 (2013-2020): Major reform takes effect. Biggest changes are the introduction of an EU-wide cap on emissions (reduced by 1.74% each year) and a progressive shift towards auctioning of allowances in place of cost-free allocation. Croatia joins the ETS.

Phase 4 (2021-2028)

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European Union Emission Trading Scheme

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-03-28/europes-carbon-emissions-market-is-crashing

p. 55

Cap and trade schemes with existing and planned linkages

p. 56

Global climate negotiations

June 1992: Earth Summit: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted

December 1997: Third Conference of the Parties (COP3): Kyoto, Japan: General framework of the Kyoto Protocol to control greenhouse gas emissions through 2012

July 2001: COP6, Bonn, Germany: Bonn Agreement, finalized important elements of the Kyoto Protocol

October 2001: COP7: Marrakesh, Morocco: Marrakesh Accords outlined how to implement Kyoto Protocol

February 2005: Kyoto Protocol entered into force

December 2007: COP13: Bali, Indonesia: Bali Road Map and Action Plan for new climate agreement

December 2009: COP-15 Copenhagen Accord: goal to achieve binding international climate agreement failed

December 2010-14: COP16-20 Post-Copenhagen in Cancun, Durban, Quatar, Warsaw, Lima

Nov/Dec 2015: COP 21 in Paris

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UNFCCC architecture

Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992

Kyoto Protocol 1997

Post-Copenhagen

Post-Kyoto

Bali, Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Doha, Warsaw, Lima

• Comprehensive & global agreement• Long term vision• Mitigation (targets & actions) &

Adaptation• Enabled by Technology & Finance

• Targets for Developed Countries• Flexibility mechanisms• Clean Development Mechanism

(Adaptation Fund)

• Recognising the problem• Objective of stabilising GHG

concentrations• Common but differentiated

responsibilities & respective capabilities• Aim of 1990 levels for Developed Countr.

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World climate summit in Copenhagen 2009 (COP-15)

p. 59

Copenhagen Accord 2009

Drafted by USA & BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa)

Delegates agreed to "take note of" at final plenary session of COP-15 (Dec. 18, 2009), not legally binding

Principles:Endorses continuation of the Kyoto Protocol

"deep cuts in global emissions are required according to science" (IPCC AR4) and cooperation in peaking GHG emissions "as soon as possible"

"need to establish a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support"

New multilateral adaptation funding with governance structure.

“crucial role of reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests“

Use markets to enhance cost-effectiveness of, and promote mitigation.

Incentives for developing countries to continue to low-emission pathway

"accelerate technology development and transfer"

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Copenhagen Accord 2009

More specific statements:Recognises "scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius"

Annex I Parties would "commit to economy-wide emissions targets for 2020" to be submitted by 31 January 2010

Non-Annex I Parties "implement mitigation actions" to slow growth in their carbon emissions, submitting these by 31 January 2010.

Activities will be measured, reported and verified (MRV)

"developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-building to support the implementation of adaptation action in developing countries: raise funds of $30 billion from 2010-2012

„Goal" for the world to raise $100 billion per year by 2020

Establishes Copenhagen Green Climate Fund "to support projects, programme, policies and other activities in developing countries related to mitigation".

Assess implementation by 2015: consideration of strengthening the long-term goal", e.g. to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees

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Criticism of Copenhagen Accord

Not legally binding, no successor or complement to Kyoto Protocol

No specific targets in emissions reductions.

Drafted by only few countries, not adopted by COP.

Late deadline for assessment (2015).

Financial assistance of $100 billion per year only until 2020.

No guarantee or information on source of climate funds or individual shares.

No specifics on international technology transfer or sectoral mitigation.

Failure of Copenhagen? Unravel misconceptions?

Chance for a new start? New, more holistic view needed?

p. 62

UNFCCC 2014 COP20 in Lima

• Expected new 2015 agreement in Paris on climate change.

• Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) for post 2020

• Progress in elevating adaptation onto same level as action to cut and curb emissions.

• Pledges in developed and developing countries that took capitalization of the new Green Climate Fund (GCF) past an initial $10 billion target.

• Levels of transparency and confidence-building, as several industrialized countries submitted themselves to questioning about their emissions targets under the Multilateral Assessment.

• Lima Ministerial Declaration on Education and Awareness-raising calls on governments to put climate change into school curricula and climate awareness into national development plans.

• Steps for adaptation including the Lima Adaptation Knowledge Initiative

p. 63

Failure and success of climate policyCopenhagen 2009 (COP-15) Paris 2015 (COP-21)

p. 64

The climate conference in Paris 2015 (COP-21)

p. 65

Results of Paris Agreement 2015 (COP-21)Temperature goal, emissions goal & support measures

1. “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”

2. After reaching maximum, the net emissions should be reduced to zero in the second half of this century. No binding targets for CO2 reduction for single States, but Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) by 186 States; reporting and checking every 5 years, creation of transparency.

3. “concern that the estimated aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the intended nationally determined contributions do not fall within least-cost 2 ˚C scenarios but rather lead to a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in 2030”…much greater emission reduction efforts will be required than those associated with the INDC “in order to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by reducing emissions to 40 gigatonnes or to 1.5 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by reducing to a level to be identified in the special report referred to in paragraph 21 below..”

Source: Paris Treaty: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf.

p. 66

Results of Paris Agreement 2015 (COP-21)

• Measures, capacity building and responsibilities for mitigation of global warming aswell as adaptation to the consequences, under consideration of equity principles.

• Finance and technology transfer between industrial and developing countries. • Promise to cover 100 billion dollars adaptation fund from 2020, to be increased.• Recognize climate loss and damages in vulnerable countries

“enhance linkages and create synergy between […] finance, technology transfer and capacity-building, and how to facilitate the implementation of coordination of non-market approaches”. Need to incorporate climate-proofing and climate resilience measures into their

development assistance and climate finance programmes. Accelerate, encourage and enable innovation in order to reach a long-term global

response to climate change and called the established technology framework to Undertake and update the technology needs assessments (TNA) Provision of enhanced financial and technical support for TNAs Assessment of technologies that are ready for transfer Enhancement of enabling environments for and the addressing of barriers to the

development and transfer of socially and environmentally sound technologies Strengthen commitments to sustainable development and enable opportunities

across institutions& private sector to participate in environmental sound development.

p. 67

http://avoid-net-uk.cc.ic.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/delightful-downloads/2015/11/Avoiding-the-impacts-of-dangerous-climate-change-AVOID-2-INDCs-infographic.pd

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Agreements and institutions on climate change

Source: IPCC 2014, WG-3

p. 69

Landscape of agreements and institutions on climate change

Source: IPCC 2014, WG-3

p. 70Source: IPCC 2014, WG-3

International cooperation over ends/means and degrees of centralized authority(blue: existing agreements)

p. 71

Typology of regional agreements with mitigation implications

Source: IPCC 2014, WG-3