journal of scientific exploration a i volume · journal of scientific exploration, vol. 14, no. 3,...

JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC EXPLORATION A Publication of the Society for Scientific Exploration I

Volume 14, Number 3 2000 ~ Page 303 Tribute 304 Editorial

Research Articles 307 Plate Tectonics: A Paradigm Under Threat

353 The Effect of the "Laying On of Hands" on Transplanted Breast Cancer in Mice

365 The Stability of Assessments of Paranormal Connections in Reincarnation-Type Cases

383 ArtREG: A Random Event Experiment Utilizing Picture- Preference Feedback

41 1 Can Population Growth Rule Out Reincarnation? A Model of Circular Migration

Peter A. Sturrock

Henry Bauer

David Pratt

William E Bengston and David Krinsley

Ian Stevenson and Jiirgen Keil

R.G. Jahn, B. J. Dunne, K H. Dobyns, R. D. Nelson, and G. J. Bradish

David Bishai

Commentary 421 The Mars Effect is Genuine: On Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Suitbert Ertel and

Sandhu's Missing the Evidence Kenneth Irving

43 1 Bulky Mars Effect Hard to Hide: Comment on Suitbert Ertel Domrnanget's Account of the Belgian Skeptics' Research

Essay 447 What Has Science Come to? Halton Arp 1

Letters to the Editor I

455 Is the Activity of the Cerebral Cortex a "Brake" on the Jesse Hong Xiong Functioning of the Brainstem?

458 Understanding the Nature of Racial Prejudice: Richard S. Hahn Comment on Hoyle and Wickramasinghe's article with response

Book Reviews 461 With the Tongues of Men and Angels: A Study of Stephan A. Schwartz

Channeling by Arthur Hastings

463 Reaching for Reality-Seven Incredible True Stories Robert Nordberg of Alien Abduction by Constance Clear

465 Project Mindshift: The Re-Education of the American Alexander Zmich Public Concerning Extraterrestrial Life, 1947 to the

I Present by Michael Mannion 468 Cryptozoology A to Z: The Encyclopedia of Loch Larissa Vilenskaya

Monsters, Sasquatch, Chupacabras, and Other Authentic Mysteries of Nature by Loren Coleman and Jerome Clark

1 (continued on next page)

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, p. 303, 2000 0892-33 10/00 O 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

TRIB UTE

The current issue of our Journal, Volume 14, Number 3, is the first to be compiled under the direction of our new Editor, Professor Henry Bauer. The Council is most grateful to Henry for taking on this responsibility and we wish him well.

However, it is also appropriate to reflect on the great achievement of the previous Editor-in-Chief, Dr. Bernhard M. Haisch, and the Executive Editor, Ms. Marsha Sims. They served as editors for so long that it is difficult to remember that there was an editor before them, but we are indebted also to Pro- fessor Ronald A. Howard who was our first editor, negotiating a contractual relationship with Pergamon Press and bringing the Journal into existence in 1987. Bernie took over the editorship of the Journal in 1988, and Marsha joined him in the editorial office in 1990. The relationship with Pergamon Press ended in 1992, when Allen Press took over. That was a critical juncture for the future of the Journal, and Bernie and Marsha set their sights high: They decided to publish four issues per year rather than two, and they aimed to ex- pand both the length of each issue and the subscription base. They have had great success on all fronts: The last complete volume (Volume 13) totaled 724 pages, and the number of independent subscribers grew to 750 in 1999. These changes came about with no reduction in the quality of the Journal. Bernie instituted an Advisory Board that now has 18 members, and exercised tight control over the scientific standard of papers published in the Journal.

It is hard to separate the growth of the Society from the growth of the Jour- nal. This is a symbiotic relationship. In the last 10 years, the Society membership has grown from 303 to 729, comprising 371 associates, 260 full members, 44 emeritus members, and 54 student members. We now have members in over 40 countries scattered over the globe. This growth of the Society is due in no small measure to Bernie's and Marsha's vision and effort.

We are also indebted to Bernie and Marsha that they instituted our current smooth and productive relationship with Allen Press, a relationship that is now even more important to the Society, because Allen Press will be handling more of our business, both for the Journal and for the Society. Our efficient and cooperative friends at Allen Press also deserve our thanks.

Now that they have handed over the editorship and the management of the Journal, Bernie and Marsha may focus their energies on another exciting new enterprise. Bernie has created, and now directs, the California Institute of Physics and Astrophysics, where Marsha now serves as executive administra- tor. We wish them well and we hope that some of the results of their activities will be published in due course in the Journal of Scientific Exploration.

Peter A. Sturrock

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 304-305,2000 0892-33 10100 O 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

EDITORIAL

I feel honored to have been asked to serve as Editor-in-Chief. The task will be made possible by many people who have agreed to help in various ways and to whom I am enormously grateful: Stephen Braude, Dean Brown, Dean Radin, and Mark Rodeghier as Associate Editors; Michael Epstein, who has taken on book-review management and also serves as Associate Editor; David Mon- crief, so assiduous in finding books worthy of review and in finding people to review them. Jill Franklin, our initial Managing Editor at Allen Press, has actually done most of the work for which I will be given credit.

Journals often signal changes in editorships with some striking change in design to signal a revivification. I recall that with Chemical & Engineering News, with Science, and more recently, with American Scholar. The Journal of Scientific Exploration, however, stands in no need of revivification. My hope as I become Editor-in-Chief is that no change will be noticed in the substantive, physically attractive periodical that Bernie Haisch and Marsha Sims nurtured for so long; indeed, one might say created.

So, in becoming Editor, I call for no new direction but rather recall our intellectual purpose: to provide for intellectually responsible discussion of scientifically anomalous topics not generally treated in mainstream scientific journals. One thinks at once of such subjects as UFOs, psychic phenomena, and cryptozoology. But we have equally provided a welcomed forum for un- orthodoxies quite within the mainstream disciplines. The Society's Dinsdale Award has been accepted by Kilmer McCully, Halton Arp, William Corliss, Helmut Schmidt, and Ian Stevenson, so by any reckoning, the Society has honored work within the mainstream at least as often as work supposedly beyond the scientific pale.

Mainstream orthodoxy routinely resists novelties that later become accepted. Throughout the 20th century there are examples: Bretz's Spokane flood, McClintock's recognition of "jumping genes", Mitchell's insights into biological energy mechanisms, Woese's Archaea, and McCully's homocysteine. Only late in the 20th century did science reluctantly grant that acupuncture can have some analgesic effect, that ball lightning exists, that the kraken is not myth but the real giant squid, that it is not foolish to look for intelligent life outside the Earth, that 5000-year-old megaliths incorporate substantial knowledge of astronomy, that human beings inhabited the Americas long before the days of the Clovis culture, and that living systems can sense not only electrical but also magnetic fields. Indeed, it may well be that the suppression of unorthodox views in science is on the increase rather than in decline. In Prometheus Bound (1994), John Ziman has outlined how science changed during the 20th century: traditionally (since perhaps the 17th century) a relatively disinterested knowledge-seeking activity, science progressively be-

Editorial 305

came handmaiden to industry and government, and its direction of research is increasingly influenced by vested interests and self-interested bureaucracies, including bureaucracies supposedly established to promote good science such as the National Academies, the National Science Foundation, and the Nation- al Institutes of Health. Parkinson's Law, it may be, applies to science as to other human activities: no sooner has an organization become successfully established than it is by that token already an obsolescent nuisance.

Even recently accepted theories may quickly become too dogmatically held. I had thought that plate tectonics, for example, which just a few decades ago justified Wegener's heresy, remained the generally accepted scientific wisdom, but to my surprise, there exists a group of dissenting geologists who publish a newsletter with discussions of the geological phenomena for which plate tectonics does not provide a satisfactory explanation. David Pratt reviews the situation in this issue of the Journal of Scientific Exploration.

Again, it is less than 2 decades since the discovery was hailed of HIV as the cause of AIDS, yet that belief too may be coming apart at the seams after South Africa's President Mbeki challenged the scientific orthodoxy to engage in genuine discourse with the dissidents. Yet another contemporary instance: a book just published makes a compelling case that cold fusion is a real phenomenon, albeit its present name may be misleading.

The Society for Scientific Exploration, then, is performing a service to science more immediate and more connected to the mainstream than was envis- aged when the society was founded. At the same time, we do not neglect the more heretical subjects. In this issue, Suitbert Ertel reemphasizes how potent is the evidence for the quasi-astrological Mars effect. In a future issue, a major study of the replicability of mind-machine interactions will offer provocative food for thought.

So the Journal and the Society fill a unique niche-a forum for disciplined investigative discussion of what may become accepted science later in the 2 1 st century and beyond.

Henry Bauer

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 307-352,2000 0892-33 10100 O 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

Plate Tectonics: A Paradigm Under Threat

Dual en Bergselaan 68, 2565 AG The Hague, The Netherlands dp5 @ compuserve.com

Abstract-This paper looks at the challenges confronting plate tectonics- the ruling paradigm in the earth sciences. The classical model of thin lithospheric plates moving over a global asthenosphere is shown to be implausible. Evidence is presented that appears to contradict continental drift, seafloor spreading, and subduction, as well as the claim that the oceanic crust is relatively young. The problems posed by vertical tectonic movements are reviewed, including evidence for large areas of submerged continental crust in today's oceans. It is concluded that the fundamental tenets of plate tectonics might be wrong.

Keywords: plate tectonics - continental roots - age of seafloor - vertical tectonics - surge tectonics.

Introduction

The idea of large-scale continental drift has been around for some 200 years, but the first detailed theory was proposed by Alfred Wegener in 1912. It met with widespread rejection, largely because the mechanism he suggested was inadequate: the continents supposedly plowed slowly through the denser oceanic crust under the influence of gravitational and rotational forces. Inter- est was revived in the early 1950s with the rise of the new science of paleomagnetism, which seemed to provide strong support for continental drift. In the early 1960s, new data from ocean exploration led to the idea of seafloor spreading. A few years later, these and other concepts were synthesized into the model of plate tectonics, which was originally called "the new global tectonics."

According to the orthodox model of plate tectonics, the earth's outer shell, or lithosphere, is divided into a number of large, rigid plates that move over a soft layer of the mantle known as the "asthenosphere" and interact at their boundaries, where they converge, diverge, or slide past one another. Such interactions are believed to be responsible for most of the seismic and volcanic activity of the earth. Plates cause mountains to rise where they push together,

l and continents to fracture and oceans to form where they rift apart. The continents, sitting passively on the backs of the plates, drift with them, at the rate of a few centimeters per year. At the end of the Permian, some 250 million years ago, all the present continents are said to have been gathered together in a single supercontinent, Pangaea, consisting of two major landmasses: Laurasia in

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308 David Pratt

the north, and Gondwanaland in the south. Pangaea is widely believed to have started fragmenting in the early Jurassic-although this is sometimes said to have begun earlier, in the Triassic, or even as late as the Cretaceous-resulting in the configuration of oceans and continents observed today.

It has been said that "a hypothesis that is appealing for its unity or simplicity acts as a filter, accepting reinforcement with ease but tending to reject evidence that does not seem to fit" (Grad, 197 l , p. 636). Meyerhoff and Meyer- hoff (1974b, p. 41 1) argued that this is "an admirable description of what has happened in the field of earth dynamics, where one hypothesis-the new global tectonics-has been permitted to override and overrule all other hypotheses." Nitecki et al. (1978) reported that in 1961 only 27% of western geologists accepted plate tectonics, but that during the mid-1960s a "chain reaction" took place, and by 1977 it was embraced by as many as 87%. Some proponents of plate tectonics have admitted that a bandwagon atmosphere developed and that data that did not fit into the model were not given sufficient consideration (e.g., Wyllie, 1976), resulting in "a somewhat disturbing dog- matism" (Dott and Batten, 198 1, p. 15 1). McGeary and Plummer (1 998, p. 97) acknowledge that "geologists, like other people, are susceptible to fads."

Maxwell (1974) stated that many earth-science papers were concerned with demonstrating that some particular feature or process may be explained by plate tectonics, but that such papers were of limited value in any unbiased assessment of the scientific validity of the hypothesis. Van Andel (1984) conceded that plate tectonics had serious flaws and that the need for a growing number of ad hoc modifications cast doubt on its claim to be the ultimate uni- fying global theory. Lowman (1 992a) argued that geology has largely become "a bland mixture of descriptive research and interpretive papers in which the interpretation is a facile cookbook application of plate-tectonics concepts.. . used as confidently as trigonometric functions" (p. 3). Lyttleton and Bondi (1 992) held that the difficulties facing plate tectonics and the lack of study of alternative explanations for seemingly supportive evidence reduced the plausibility of the theory.

Saul1 (1986) pointed out that no global tectonic model should ever be considered definitive, because geological and geophysical observations are nearly always open to alternative explanations. He also stated that even if plate tectonics were false, it would be difficult to refute and replace, for the following reasons: the processes supposed to be responsible for plate dynamics are rooted in regions of the earth so poorly known that it is hard to prove or disprove any particular model of them; the hard core of belief in plate tectonics is protected from direct assault by auxiliary hypotheses that are still being generated; and the plate model is so widely believed to be correct that it is difficult to get alternative interpretations published in the scientific literature.

When plate tectonics was first elaborated in the 1960s, less than 0.0001% of the deep ocean had been explored and less than 20% of the land area had been mapped in meaningful detail. Even by the mid- 1990s, only about 3%-5% of

Plate Tectonics: A Paradigm Under Threat 309

the deep ocean basins had been explored in any kind of detail, and not much more than 25%-30% of the land area could be said to be truly known (Meyer- hoff et al., 1996a). Scientific understanding of the earth's surface features is clearly still in its infancy, to say nothing of the earth's interior.

Beloussov (1980, 1990) held that plate tectonics was a premature generalization of still very inadequate data on the structure of the ocean floor and had proven to be far removed from geological reality. He wrote:

It is . . .q uite understandable that attempts to employ this conception to explain concrete structural situations in a local rather than a global scale lead to increasingly complicated schemes in which it is suggested that local axes of spreading develop here and there, that they shift their position, die out, and reappear, that the rate of spreading alters re- peatedly and often ceases altogether, and that lithospheric plates are broken up into an even greater number of secondary and tertiary plates. All these schemes are charac- terised by a complete absence of logic, and of patterns of any kind. The impression is given that certain rules of the game have been invented, and that the aim is to fit reality into these rules somehow or other (1 980, p. 303).

Criticism of plate tectonics has increased in line with the growing number of observational anomalies. This paper outlines some of the main problems facing the theory.

Plates in Motion?

According to the classical model of plate tectonics, lithospheric plates creep over a relatively plastic layer of partly molten rock known as the "asthenosphere" (or low-velocity zone). According to a modern geological textbook (McGeary and Plummer, 1998), the lithosphere, which comprises the earth's crust and uppermost mantle, averages about 70 km thick beneath oceans and is at least 125 km thick beneath continents, while the asthenosphere extends to a depth of perhaps 200 km. It points out that some geologists think that the lithosphere beneath continents is at least 250 km thick. Seismic tomography, which produces three-dimensional images of the earth's interior, appears to show that the oldest parts of the continents have deep roots extending to depths of 400-600 km and that the asthenosphere is essentially absent beneath them (Figure 1). McGeary and Plummer (1998) say that these findings cast doubt on the original, simple lithosphere-asthenosphere model of plate behavior. They do not, however, consider any alternatives.

Despite the compelling seismotomographic evidence for deep continental roots (Dziewonski and Anderson, 1984; Dziewonski and Woodhouse, 1987; Grand, 1987; Lerner-Lam, 1988; Forte, Dziewonski, and O'Connell, 1995; Gossler and Kind, 1996), some plate tectonicists have suggested that we just happen to live at a time when the continents have drifted over colder mantle (Anderson, Tanimoto, and Zhang, 1992), or that continental roots are really no

310 David Pratt

NORTH AMERICAN CRATON [EUROPE

ICELAND AND W JUAN DE MID-ATLANTIC E

A FUCf RIDGE RIDGE I A'

Fig. 1. Seismotomographic cross-section showing velocity structure across the North American craton and North Atlantic Ocean. High-velocity (colder) lithosphere, shown in dark tones, underlies the Canadian shield to depths of 250-500 km. (Reprinted with permission from Grand, 1987. Copyright by the American Geophysical Union.)

mantle material beneath them, giving the illusion of much deeper roots (Polet and Anderson, 1995). However, evidence from seismic-velocity, heat-flow, and gravity studies has been building up for several decades, showing that ancient continental shields have very deep roots and that the low-velocity asthenosphere is very thin or absent beneath them (e.g., Jordan, 1975, 1978; MacDonald, 1963; Pollack and Chapman, 1977). Seismic tomography has merely reinforced the message that continental cratons, particularly those of Archean and Early Proterozoic age, are "welded" to the underlying mantle, and that the concept of thin (less than 250 km thick) lithospheric plates moving thousands of kilometers over a global asthenosphere is unrealistic. Never- theless, many textbooks continue to propagate the simplistic lithosphere-asthenosphere model and fail to give the slightest indication that it faces any problems (e.g., McLeish, 1992; Skinner and Porter, 1995; Wicander and Mon- roe, 1999).

Geophysical data show that, far from the asthenosphere being a continuous layer, there are disconnected lenses (asthenolenses), which are observed only in regions of tectonic activation and high heat flow. Although surface-wave observations suggested that the asthenosphere was universally present beneath the oceans, detailed seismic studies show that here, too, there are only asthenospheric lenses. Seismic research has revealed complicated zoning and inhomogeneity in the upper mantle and the alternation of layers with higher and lower velocities and layers of different quality. Individual low-velocity layers are bedded at different depths in different regions and do not compose a single layer. This renders the very concept of the lithosphere ambiguous, at least that of its base. Indeed, the definition of the lithosphere and astheno-


sphere has become increasingly blurred with time (Pavlenkova, 1990, 1995, 1996).

Thus, the lithosphere has a highly complex and irregular structure. Far from being homogeneous, "plates" are actually "a megabreccia, a 'pudding' of inhomogeneities whose nature, size, and properties vary widely" (Chekunov, Gordienko, and Guterman, 1990, p. 404). The crust and uppermost mantle are divided by faults into a mosaic of separate, jostling blocks of different shapes and sizes, generally a few hundred kilometers across, and of varying internal structure and strength. Pavlenkova (1990, p. 78) concludes: "This means that the movement of lithospheric plates over long distances, as single rigid bodies, is hardly possible. Moreover, if we take into account the absence of the asthenosphere as a single continuous zone, then this movement seems utterly impossible." She states that this is further confirmed by the strong evidence that regional geological features, too, are connected with deep (more than 400 km) inhomogeneities and that these connections remain stable during long periods of geologic time; considerable movement between the lithosphere and asthenosphere would detach near-surface structures from their deep mantle roots.

Plate tectonicists who accept the evidence for deep continental roots have proposed that plates may extend to and glide along the 400-km, or even 670- km, seismic discontinuity (Jordan, 1975, 1978, 1979; Seyfert, 1998). Jordan, for instance, suggested that the oceanic lithosphere moves on the classical low-velocity zone while the continental lithosphere moves along the 400-km discontinuity. However, there is no certainty that a superplastic zone exists at this discontinuity, and no evidence has been found of a shear zone connecting the two decoupling layers along the trailing edge of continents (Lowman, 1985). Moreover, even under the oceans, there appears to be no continuous asthenosphere. Finally, the movement of such thick "plates" poses an even greater problem than that of thin lithosphericic plates.

The driving force of plate movements was initially claimed to be mantle- deep convection currents welling up beneath midocean ridges, with down- welling occurring beneath ocean trenches. Since the existence of layering in the mantle was considered to render whole-mantle convection unlikely, two- layer convection models were also proposed. Jeffreys (1 974) argued that convection cannot take place because it is a self-damping process, as described by the Lomnitz law. Plate tectonicists expected seismic tomography to provide clear evidence of a well-organized convection-cell pattern, but it has actually provided strong evidence against the existence of large, plate-propelling convection cells in the upper mantle (Anderson, Tanimoto, and Zhang, 1992). Many geologists now think that mantle convection is a result of plate motion rather than its cause and that it is shallow rather than mantle deep (McGeary and Plummer, 1998).

The favored plate-driving mechanisms at present are "ridge push" and "slab

312 David Pratt

the dominant mechanism and refers to the gravitational subsidence of subducted slabs. However, it will not work for plates that are largely continental or that have leading edges that are continental, because continental crust cannot be bodily subducted due to its low density, and it seems utterly unrealistic to imagine that ridge push from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge alone could move the 120"-wide Eurasian plate (Lowman, 1986). Moreover, evidence for the long- term weakness of large rock masses casts doubt on the idea that edge forces can be transmitted from one margin of a "plate" to its interior or opposite margin (Keith, 1993).

Thirteen major plates are currently recognized, ranging in size from about 400 by 2,500 km to 10,000 by 10,000 km, together with a proliferating number of microplates (over 100 so far). Van Andel (1998) writes:

Where plate boundaries adjoin continents, matters often become very complex and have demanded an ever denser thicket of ad hoc modifications and amendments to the theory and practice of plate tectonics in the form of microplates, obscure plate boundaries, and exotic terranes. A good example is the Mediterranean, where the collisions between Africa and a swarm of microcontinents have produced a tectonic nightmare that is far from resolved. More disturbingly, some of the present plate boundaries, particularly in the eastern Mediterranean, appear to be so diffuse and so anomalous that they cannot be compared to the three types of plate boundaries of the basic theory.

Plate boundaries are identified and defined mainly on the basis of earthquake and volcanic activity. The close correspondence between plate edges and belts of earthquakes and volcanoes is therefore to be expected and can hardly be regarded as one of the "successes" of plate tectonics (McGeary and Plummer, 1998). Moreover, the simple pattern of earthquakes around the Pa- cific Basin on which plate tectonics models have hitherto been based has been seriously undermined by more recent studies showing a surprisingly large number of earthquakes in deep-sea regions previously thought to be aseismic (Storetvedt, 1997). Another major problem is that several "plate boundaries" are purely theoretical and appear to be nonexistent, including the northwest Pacific boundary of the Pacific, North American, and Eurasian plates, the southern boundary of the Philippine plate, part of the southern boundary of the Pacific plate, and most of the northern and southern boundaries of the South American plate (Stanley, 1989).

Continental Drift

Geological field mapping provides evidence for horizontal crustal movements of up to several hundred kilometers (Jeffreys, 1976). Plate tectonics, however, claims that continents have moved up to 7,000 km or more since the alleged breakup of Pangaea. Measurements using space-geodetic techniques-very long baseline interferometry, satellite laser-ranging, and the global positioning system-have been hailed by some workers as having


but do not provide evidence for plate motions of the kind predicted by plate tectonics unless the relative motions predicted among all plates are observed. However, many of the results have shown no definite pattern and have been confusing and contradictory, giving rise to a variety of ad hoc hypotheses (Fallon and Dillinger, 1992; Gordon and Stein, 1992; Smith et al., 1994).

Japan and North America appear, as predicted, to be approaching each other, but distances from the Central South American Andes to Japan or Hawaii are more or less constant, whereas plate tectonics predicts significant separation (Storetvedt, 1997). Trans-Atlantic drift has not been demonstrated, because baselines within North America and western Europe have failed to establish that the plates are moving as rigid units; they suggest in fact significant intraplate deformation (James, 1994; Lowman, 1992b). Space-geodetic measurements to date have therefore not confirmed plate tectonics. Moreover, they are open to alternative explanations (e.g., Carey, 1994; Meyerhoff et al., 1996a; Storetvedt, 1997). It is clearly a hazardous exercise to extrapolate present crustal movements tens or hundreds of millions of years into the past or future. Indeed, geodetic surveys across "rift" zones (e.g., in Iceland and East Africa) have failed to detect any consistent and systematic widening as postulated by plate tectonics (Keith, 1993).

Fits and Misfits

A "compelling" piece of evidence that all the continents were once united in one large landmass is said to be the fact that they can be fitted together like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. Many reconstructions have been attempted (e.g., Barron, Harrison, and Hay, 1978; Bullard, Everett, and Smith, 1965; Dietz and Holden, 1970; Nafe and Drake, 1969; Scotese, Gahagan, and Larson, 1988; Smith and Hallam, 1970; Smith, Hurley, and Briden, 198 1 ; Tarling, 197 I), but none are entirely acceptable (Figures 2 and 3).

In the Bullard, Everett, and Smith (1965) computer-generated fit, for example, there are a number of glaring omissions. The whole of Central America and much of southern Mexico are left out, despite the fact that extensive areas of Paleozoic and Precambrian continental rocks occur there. This region of some 2,100,000 km2 overlaps South America in a region consisting of a craton at least 2 billion years old. The entire West Indian archipelago has also been omitted. In fact, much of the Caribbean is underlain by ancient continental crust, and the total area involved (300,000 km2) overlaps Africa (Meyerhoff and Hatten, 1974). The Cape Verde Islands-Senegal Basin, too, is underlain by ancient continental crust, creating an additional overlap of 800,000 km2.

Several major submarine structures that appear to be of continental origin are ignored in the Bullard, Everett, and Smith (1 965) fit, including the Faeroe- Iceland-Greenland Ridge, Jan Mayen Ridge, Walvis Ridge, Rio Grande Rise, and the Falkland Plateau. However, the Rockall Plateau was included for the sole reason that it could be "slotted in." This fit postulates an east-west shear

David Pratt

Fig. 2. The Bullard fit. Overlaps and gaps between continents are shown in black. (Reprinted with permission from Bullard, Everett, and Smith, 1965. Copyright by The Royal Soci- ety.)

field geology does not support either of these suppositions (Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1974a). Even the celebrated fit of South America and Africa is problematic, as it is impossible to match all parts of the coastlines simultaneously; e.g., there is a gap between Guyana and Guinea (Eyles and Eyles, 1993).

Like the Bullard, Everett, and Smith (1965) fit, the Smith and Hallam (1970) reconstruction of the Gondwanaland continents is based on the 500- fathom depth contour. The South Orkneys and South Georgia are omitted, as is Kerguelen Island in the Indian Ocean, and there is a large gap west of Aus- tralia. Fitting India against Australia, as in other fits, leaves a corresponding gap in the western Indian Ocean (Hallam, 1976). Dietz and Holden (1970) based their fit on the 1,000-fathom (2-km) contour, but they still had to omit the Florida-Bahamas platform, ignoring the evidence that it predates the alleged commencement of drift. In many regions, the boundary between continental and oceanic crust appears to occur beneath oceanic depths of 2-4 km or more (Hallam, 1979), and in some places, the ocean-continent transition zone is several hundred kilometers wide (Van der Linden, 1977). This means that any reconstructions based on arbitrarily selected depth contours are flawed. Given the liberties that drifters have had to take to obtain the desired continen-


Fig. 3. Computer-derived plate tectonic map for Permian time. (Reprinted with permission from Meyerhoff, 1995. Copyright by Elsevier Science.)

tal matches, their computer-generated fits may well be a case of "garbage in, garbage out" (Le Grand, 1988).

The similarities of rock types and geological structures on coasts that were supposedly once juxtaposed are hailed by drifters as further evidence that the continents were once joined together. However, they rarely mention the many geological dissimilarities. For instance, western Africa and northern Brazil were supposedly once in contact, yet the structural trends of the former run north to south while those of the latter run east to west (Storetvedt, 1997). Some predrift reconstructions show peninsular India against western Antarc- tica, yet Permian Indian basins do not correspond geographically or in sequence to the western Australian basins (Dickins and Choi, 1997). Gregory (1 929) held that the geological resemblances of opposing Atlantic coastlines are due to the areas having belonged to the same tectonic belt, but that the differences are sufficient to show that the areas were situated in distant parts of the belt. Bucher (1933) showed that the paleontological and geological similarities between the eastern Alps and central Himalayas, 4,000 miles apart, are just as remarkable as those between the Argentine and South Africa, separated by the same distance.

The approximate parallelism of the coastlines of the Atlantic Ocean may be due to the boundaries between the continents and oceans having been formed by deep faults, which tend to be grouped into parallel systems (Beloussov, 1980). Moreover, the curvature of continental contours is often so similar that many of them can be joined if they are given the necessary rotation. Lyustikh (1967) gave examples of 15 shorelines that can be fitted together quite well even though they can never have been in juxtaposition. Voisey (1 958) showed that eastern Australia fits well with eastern North America if Cape York is

316 David Pratt

placed next to Florida. He pointed out that the geological and paleontological similarities are remarkable, probably due to the similar tectonic backgrounds of the two regions.

Paleornagnetic Pitfalls

One of the main props of continental drift is paleomagnetism-the study of the magnetism of ancient rocks and sediments. The inclination and declina- tion of fossil magnetism can be used to infer the location of a virtual magnetic pole relative to the location of the sample in question. When virtual poles are determined from progressively older rocks from the same continent, the poles appear to wander with time. Joining the former averaged pole positions gener- ates an apparent polar wander path. Different continents yield different polar wander paths, and from this, it has been concluded that the apparent wandering of the magnetic poles is caused by the actual wandering of the continents over the earth's surface. The possibility that there has been some degree of true polar wander-i.e., a shift of the whole earth relative to the rotation axis (the axial tilt remaining the same)-has not, however, been ruled out.

That paleomagnetism can be unreliable is well established (Barron, Harri- son, and Hay, 1978; Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1972). For instance, paleomagnetic data imply that during the mid-Cretaceous, Azerbaijan and Japan were in the same place (Meyerhoff, 1970a)! The literature is in fact bursting with inconsistencies (Storetvedt, 1997). Paleomagnetic studies of rocks of different ages suggest a different polar wander path not only for each continent, but also for different parts of each continent. When individual paleomagnetic pole positions, rather than averaged curves, are plotted on world maps, the scatter is huge, often wider than the Atlantic. Furthermore, paleomagnetism can determine only paleolatitude, not paleolongitude. Conse- quently, it cannot be used to prove continental drift.

Paleomagnetism is plagued with uncertainties. Merrill, McElhinny, and McFadden (1996, p. 69) state that "there are numerous pitfalls that await the unwary: first, in sorting out the primary magnetization from secondary mag- netizations (acquired subsequent to formation), and second, in extrapolating the properties of the primary magnetization to those of the earth's magnetic field." The interpretation of paleomagnetic data is founded on two basic assumptions: (a) when rocks are formed, they are magnetized in the direction of the geomagnetic field existing at the time and place of their formation, and the acquired magnetization is retained in the rocks at least partially over geologic time; and (b) the geomagnetic field averaged for any period of the order of 10' years (except magnetic-reversal epochs) is a dipole field oriented along the earth's rotation axis. Both these assumptions are questionable.

The gradual northward shift of paleopole "scatter ellipses" through time, and the gradual reduction in the diameters of the ellipses suggest that rema- nent magnetism becomes less stable with time. Rock magnetism is subject to modification by later magnetism, weathering, metamorphism, tectonic defor-


mation, and chemical changes. Moreover, the geomagnetic field today devi- ates substantially from that of a geocentric axial dipole. The magnetic axis is tilted by about 11" to the rotation axis, and on some planets, much greater off- sets are found: 46.8" in the case of Neptune and 58.6" in the case of Uranus (Merrill, McElhinny, and McFadden, 1996). Nevertheless, because Earth's magnetic field undergoes significant long-term secular variation (e.g., a west- ward drift), it is thought that the time-averaged field will closely approximate a geocentric axial dipole. However, there is strong evidence that the geomagnetic field had long-term nondipole components in the past, though they have largely been neglected (Kent and Smethurst, 1998; Van der Voo, 1998). To test the axial nature of the geomagnetic field in the past, scientists have to use paleoclimatic data. However, several major paleoclimatic indicators, along with paleontological data, provide powerful evidence against continental-drift models, and therefore against the current interpretation of paleomagnetic data (see below).

It is possible that the magnetic poles have wandered considerably with respect to the geographic poles in former times. Also, if in past geological periods, there were stable magnetic anomalies of the same intensity as the present- day East Asian anomaly (or slightly more intensive), this would render the geocentric axial dipole hypothesis invalid (Beloussov, 1990). Regional or semiglobal magnetic fields might be generated by vortexlike cells of thermal- magmatic energy, rising and falling in the earth's mantle (Pratsch, 1990). An- other important factor may be magnetostriction-the alteration of the direction of magnetization by directed stress (Jeffreys, 1976; Munk and MacDonald, 1975). Some workers have shown that certain discordant paleomagnetic results that could be explained by large horizontal movements can be explained equally well by vertical block rotations and tilts and by inclination shallowing resulting from sediment compaction (Butler et al., 1989; Dickinson and Butler, 1998; Irving and Archibald, 1990; Hodych and Bijak- sana, 1993). Storetvedt (1 992, 1997) has developed a model known as "global wrench tectonics" in which paleomagnetic data are explained by in situ horizontal rotations of continental blocks, together with true polar wander. The possibility that a combination of these factors could be at work simultaneously significantly undermines the use of paleomagnetism to support continental drift.

Drift Versus Geology

The opening of the Atlantic Ocean allegedly began in the Cretaceous by the rifting apart of the Eurasian and American plates. However, on the other side of the globe, northeastern Eurasia is joined to North America by the Bering- Chukotsk shelf, which is underlain by Precambrian continental crust that is continuous and unbroken from Alaska to Siberia. Geologically these regions constitute a single unit, and it is unrealistic to suppose that they were formerly divided by an ocean several thousand kilometers wide, which closed to com-

318 David Pratt

pensate for the opening of the Atlantic. If a suture is absent there, one ought to be found in Eurasia or North America, but no such suture appears to exist (Be- loussov, 1990; Shapiro, 1990). If Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea had formed by Greenland and North America drifting apart, this would have produced hundreds of kilometers of lateral offset across the Nares Strait between Green- land and Ellesmere Island, but geological field studies reveal no such offset (Grant, 1980, 1992). Greenland is separated from Europe west of Spitsbergen by only 50-75 km at the 1,000-fathom depth contour, and it is joined to Eu- rope by the continental Faeroe-Iceland-Greenland Ridge (Meyerhoff, 1974). All these facts rule out the possibility of east-west drift in the northern hemisphere.

Geology indicates that there has been a direct tectonic connection between Europe and Africa across the zones of Gibraltar and Rif on the one hand, and Calabria and Sicily on the other, at least since the end of the Paleozoic, contradicting plate-tectonic claims of significant displacement between Europe and Africa during this period (Beloussov, 1990). Plate tectonicists hold widely varying opinions on the Middle East region. Some advocate the former presence of two or more plates, some postulate several microplates, others support island-arc interpretations, and a majority favor the existence of at least one suture zone that marks the location of a continent-continent collision. Kashfi (1 992, p. 1 19) comments:

Nearly all of these hypotheses are mutually exclusive. Most would cease to exist if the field data were honored. These data show that there is nothing in the geologic record to support a past separation of Arabia-Africa from the remainder of the Middle East.

India supposedly detached itself from Antarctica sometime during the Mesozoic, and then drifted northeastward up to 9,000 km, over a period of up to 200 million years, until it finally collided with Asia in the mid-Tertiary, pushing up the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. That Asia happened to have an indentation of approximately the correct shape and size and in exactly the right place for India to "dock" into would amount to a remarkable coincidence (Mantura, 1972). There is, however, overwhelming geological and paleontological evidence that India has been an integral part of Asia since Pro- terozoic or earlier time (Ahmad, 1990; Chatterjee and Hotton, 1986; Meyerhoff et al., 199 1 ; Saxena and Gupta, 1990). There is also abundant evidence that the Tethys Sea in the region of the present Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt was never a deep, wide ocean but rather a narrow, predominantly shallow, intracontinental seaway (Bhat, 1987; Dickins, 1987, 1994c; McKen- zie, 1987; Stocklin, 1989). If the long journey of India had actually occurred, it would have been an isolated island continent for millions of years-sufficient time to have evolved a highly distinct endemic fauna. However, the Mesozoic and Tertiary faunas show no such endemism but indicate instead

~ Plate Tectonics: A Paradigm Under Threat 319

and Antarctica (Chatterjee and Hotton, 1986). The stratigraphic, structural, and paleontological continuity of India with Asia and Arabia means that the supposed "flight of India" is no more than a flight of fancy.

A striking feature of the oceans and continents today is that they are arranged antipodally: The Arctic Ocean is precisely antipodal to Antarctica; North America is exactly antipodal to the Indian Ocean; Europe and Africa are antipodal to the central area of the Pacific Ocean; Australia is antipodal to the small basin of the North Atlantic; and the South Atlantic corresponds- though less exactly-to the eastern half of Asia (Bucher, 1933; Gregory, 1899,

I 1901; Steers, 1950). Only 7% of the earth's surface does not obey the antipo- ~ dal rule. If the continents had slowly drifted thousands of kilometers to their I present positions, the antipodal arrangement of land and water would have to

be regarded as purely coincidental. Harrison et al. (1 983) calculated that there is one chance in seven that this arrangement is the result of a random process.

Paleoclimatology

The paleoclimatic record is preserved from Proterozoic time to the present in the geographic distribution of evaporites, carbonate rocks, coals, and tillites. The locations of these paleoclimatic indicators are best explained by stable rather than shifting continents, and by periodic changes in climate, from globally warm or hot to globally cool (Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1974a; Meyerhoff et al., 1996b). For instance, 95% of all evaporites-a dry-climate indicator-from the Proterozoic to the present lie in regions that now receive less than 100 cm of rainfall per year, i.e. in today's dry-wind belts. The evaporite and coal zones show a pronounced northward offset similar to today's northward offset of the thermal equator. Shifting the continents succeeds at best in explaining local or regional paleoclimatic features for a particular period and invariably fails to explain the global climate for the same period.

In the Carboniferous and Permian, glaciers covered parts of Antarctica, South Africa, South America, India, and Australia. Drifters claim that this glaciation can be explained in terms of Gondwanaland, which was then situated near the South Pole. However, the Gondwanaland hypothesis defeats itself in this respect because large areas that were glaciated during this period would be removed too far inland for moist ocean-air currents to reach them. Glaciers would have formed only at its margins while the interior would have been a vast, frigid desert (Meyerhoff, 1970a; Meyerhoff and Teichert, 197 1). Shal- low epicontinental seas within Pangaea could not have provided the required moisture because they would have been frozen during the winter months. This glaciation is easier to explain in terms of the continents' present positions: nearly all the continental ice centers were adjacent to or near present coastlines, or in high plateaus and/or mountain lands not far from present coasts.

Drifters say that the continents have shifted little since the start of the Ceno- zoic (some 65 million years ago), yet this period has seen significant alterations in climatic conditions. Even since Early Pliocene time the width of the

320 David Pratt

temperate zone has changed by more than 15" (1,650 km) in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The uplift of the Rocky Mountains and Tibetan Plateau appears to have been a key factor in the late Cenozoic climatic deteri- oration (Manabe and Broccoli, 1990; Ruddiman and Kutzbach, 1989). To de- cide whether past climates are compatible with the present latitudes of the regions concerned, it is clearly essential to take account of vertical crustal movements, which can cause significant changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns by altering the topography of the continents and ocean floor, and the distribution of land and sea (Brooks, 1949; Dickins, 1994a; Meyerhoff, 1 970b).

Biopaleogeography

Meyerhoff et al. (1 996b) showed in a detailed study that most major biogeographical boundaries, based on floral and faunal distributions, do not coincide with the partly computer-generated plate boundaries postulated by plate tectonics, Nor do the proposed movements of continents correspond with the known, or necessary, migration routes and directions of biogeographical boundaries. In most cases, the discrepancies are very large, and not even an approximate match can be claimed. The authors comment, "What is puzzling is that such major inconsistencies between plate tectonic postulates and field data, involving as they do boundaries that extend for thousands of kilometers, are permitted to stand unnoticed, unacknowledged, and unstudied" (p. 3).

The known distributions of fossil organisms are more consistent with an earth model like that of today than with continental-drift models, and more migration problems are raised by joining the continents in the past than by keeping them separated (Khudoley, 1974; Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1974a; Smiley, 1974, 1976, 1992; Teichert, 1974; Teichert and Meyerhoff, 1972). It is unscientific to select a few faunal identities and ignore the vastly greater number of faunal dissimilarities from different continents that were supposedly once joined. The widespread distribution of the Glossopteris flora in the southern continents is frequently claimed to support the former existence of Gondwanaland, but it is rarely pointed out that this flora has also been found in northeast Asia (Smiley, 1976).

Some of the paleontological evidence appears to require the alternate emergence and submergence of land dispersal routes only after the supposed breakup of Pangaea. For example, mammal distribution indicates that there were no direct physical connections between Europe and North America during Late Cretaceous and Paleocene times but suggests a temporary connection with Europe during the Eocene (Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1974a). Continen- tal drift, on the other hand, would have resulted in an initial disconnection with no subsequent reconnection. A few drifters have recognized the need for intermittent land bridges after the supposed separation of the continents (e.g., Briggs, 1987; Tarling, 1982). Various oceanic ridges, rises, and plateaus could have served as land bridges, as many are known to have been partly above


water at various times in the past. It is also possible that these land bridges formed part of larger former landmasses in the present oceans (see below).

Seafloor Spreading and Subduction

According to the seafloor-spreading hypothesis, new oceanic lithosphere is generated at midocean ridges ("divergent plate boundaries") by the upwelling of molten material from the earth's mantle, and as the magma cools, it spreads away from the flanks of the ridges. The horizontally moving plates are said to plunge back into the mantle at ocean trenches or "subduction zones" ("conver- gent plate boundaries"). The melting of the descending slab is believed to give rise to the magmatic-volcanic arcs that lie adjacent to certain trenches.

Seafloor Spreading

The ocean floor is far from having the uniform characteristics that convey- or-type spreading would imply (Keith, 1993). Although averaged surface- wave data seemed to confirm that the oceanic lithosphere was symmetrical in relation to the ridge axis and increased in thickness with distance from the axial zone, more detailed seismic research has contradicted this simple model. It has shown that the mantle is asymmetrical in relation to the midocean ridges and has a complicated mosaic structure independent of the strike of the ridge. Several low-velocity zones (asthenolenses) occur in the oceanic mantle, but it is difficult to establish any regularity between the depth of the zones and their distance from the midocean ridge (Pavlenkova, 1990).

Boreholes drilled in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans have shown the extensive distribution of shallow-water sediments ranging from Triassic to Quaternary. The spatial distribution of shallow-water sediments and their vertical arrangement in some of the sections refute the spreading mechanism for the formation of oceanic lithosphere (Ruditch, 1990). The evidence implies that since the Jurassic, the present oceans have undergone large-ampli- ~ tude subsidences, and that this occurred mosaically rather than showing a systematic relationship with distance from the ocean ridges. Younger, shallow-water sediments are often located farther from the axial zones of the ridges than older ones-the opposite of what is required by the plate tectonics model, which postulates that as newly formed oceanic lithosphere moves away from the spreading axis and cools, it gradually subsides to greater depths. Furthermore, some areas of the oceans appear to have undergone continuous subsidence, whereas others underwent alternating subsidence and elevation (Figure 4). The height of the ridge along the Romanche fracture zone in the equatorial Atlantic is 1-4 km above that expected by seafloor-spreading models. Large segments of it were close to or above sea level only 5 million years ago, and subsequent subsidence has been one order of magnitude faster than that predicted by plate tectonics (Bonatti and Chermak, 198 1).

David Pratt

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Mln Yrr

Fig. 4. Vertical movements of the ocean bed during the last 160 million years: (1) according to the seafloor-spreading model, (2) the real sequence of vertical movements at the corresponding deep-sea drilling sites. The curves in the upper scaleless part of the diagram are tentative. (Reprinted from Ruditch, 1990.)

along ocean ridges and fall off steadily with increasing distance from the ridge crests. Actual measurements, however, contradict this simple picture: Ridge crests show a very large scatter in heat-flow magnitudes, and there is generally little difference in thermal flux between the ridge and the rest of the ocean (Keith, 1993; Storetvedt, 1997). All parts of the Indian Ocean display a cold and rather featureless heat-flow picture except the Central Indian Basin. The broad region of intense tectonic deformation in this basin indicates that the basement has a block structure and presents a major puzzle for plate tectonics, especially since it is located in a "midplate" setting.

Smoot and Meyerhoff (1 995) have shown that nearly all published charts of the world's ocean floors have been drawn deliberately to reflect the predictions of the plate-tectonics hypothesis. For example, the Atlantic Ocean floor is unvaryingly shown to be dominated by a sinuous, north-south midocean ridge, flanked on either side by abyssal plains, cleft at its crest by a rift valley, and offset at more or less regular 40-to-60-km intervals by east-west-striking fracture zones. New, detailed bathymetric surveys indicate that this oversim- plified portrayal of the Atlantic Basin is largely wrong, yet the most accurate charts now available are widely ignored because they do not conform to plate tectonic preconceptions.

According to plate tectonics, the offset segments of "spreading" oceanic ridges should be connected by "transform fault" plate boundaries. Since the late 1960s, it has been claimed that first-motion studies in ocean fracture


zones provide overwhelming support for the concept of transform faults. The results of these seismic surveys, however, were never clear cut, and contradictory evidence and alternative explanations have been ignored (Storetvedt, 1997; Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1974a). Instead of being continuous and approximately parallel across the full width of each ridge, ridge-transverse fracture zones tend to be discontinuous, with many unpredicted bends, bifurca- tions, and changes in strike. In places, the fractures are diagonal rather than perpendicular to the ridge, and several parts of the ridge have no important fracture zones or even traces of them. For instance, they are absent from a 700-km-long portion of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge between the Atlantis and Kane fracture zones. There is a growing recognition that the fracture patterns in the Atlantic "show anomalies that are neither predicted by nor ...y et built into plate tectonic understanding" (Shirley, 1998a, 1998b).

Side-scanning radar images show that the midocean ridges are cut by thousands of long, linear, ridge-parallel fissures, fractures, and faults. This strongly suggests that the ridges are underlain at shallow depth by interconnected magma channels, in which semifluid lava moves horizontally and parallel with the ridges rather than at right angles to them. The fault pattern observed is therefore totally different from that predicted by plate tectonics, and it cannot be explained by upwelling mantle diapirs as some plate tectonicists have proposed (Meyerhoff et al, 1992a). A zone of thrust faults, 300-400 km wide, has been discovered flanking the Mid-Atlantic Ridge over a length of 1,000 km (Antipov et al., 1990). Because it was produced under conditions of compression, it contradicts the plate-tectonic hypothesis that midocean ridges are dominated by tension. In Iceland, the largest landmass astride the Mid-At- lantic Ridge, the predominant stresses in the axial zone are likewise compres- sive rather than extensional (Keith, 1993). Earthquake data compiled by Zoback et al. (1 989) provide further evidence that ocean ridges are characterized by widespread compression, whereas recorded tensional earthquake activity associated with these ridges is rarer. The rough topography and strong tectonic deformation of much of the ocean ridges, particularly in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, suggest that instead of being "spreading centers," they are a type of foldbelt (Storetvedt, 1997).

The continents and oceans are covered with a network of major structures or lineaments, many dating from the Precambrian, along which tectonic and magmatic activity and associated mineralization take place (Anfiloff, 1992; Gay, 1973; Katterfeld and Charushin, 1973; Dickins and Choi, 1997; O'Driscoll, 1980; Wezel, 1992). The oceanic lineaments are not readily compatible with seafloor spreading and subduction, and plate tectonics shows little interest in them. GEOSAT data and SASS multibeam sonar data show that there are NNW-SSE and WSW-ENE megatrends in the Pacific Ocean, composed primarily of fracture zones and linear seamount chains, and these orthogonal lineaments naturally intersect (Smoot, 1997b, 1998a, 1998b, 1999). This is a physical impossibility in plate tectonics, as seamount chains suppos-

324 David Pratt

edly indicate the direction of plate movement, and plates would therefore have to move in two directions at once! No satisfactory plate-tectonic explanation of any of these megatrends has been proposed outside the realm of ad hoc "microplates," and they are largely ignored. The orthogonal lineaments in the At- lantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, and Tasmanian Sea are also ignored (Choi, 1997, 1999a, 1999~) .

Age of the Seajloor

The oldest known rocks from the continents are just under 4 billion years old, whereas-according to plate tectonics-none of the ocean crust is older than 200 million years (Jurassic). This is cited as conclusive evidence that oceanic lithosphere is constantly being created at midocean ridges and consumed in subduction zones. There is in fact abundant evidence against the alleged youth of the ocean floor, though geological textbooks tend to pass over it in silence.

The oceanic crust is commonly divided into three main layers: Layer 1 consists of ocean floor sediments and averages 0.5 km in thickness; Layer 2 consists largely of basalt and is 1.0 to 2.5 km thick; and Layer 3 is assumed to consist of gabbro and is about 5 km thick. Scientists involved in the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) have given the impression that the basalt (Layer 2) found at the base of many deep-sea drill holes is basement, and that there are no further, older sediments below it. However, the DSDP scientists were apparently motivated by a strong desire to confirm seafloor spreading (Storetvedt, 1997).

Of the first 429 sites drilled (1 968-1 977), only 165 (38%) reached basalt, and some penetrated more than one basalt. All but 12 of the 165 basalt pene- trations were called "basement," including 19 sites where the upper contact of the basalt with the sediments was baked (Meyerhoff et al., 1992a). Baked contacts suggest that the basalt is an intrusive sill, and in some cases this has been confirmed, as the basalts turned out to have radiometric dates younger than the overlying sediments (e.g., Macdougall, 1971). One hundred one sediment- basalt contacts were never recovered in cores, and therefore never actually seen, yet they were still assumed to be depositional contacts. In 33 cases, depositional contacts were observed, but the basalt sometimes contained sedimentary clasts, suggesting that there might be older sediments below. Indeed, boreholes that have penetrated Layer 2 to some depth have revealed an alternation of basalts and sedimentary rocks (Anderson et al., 1982; Hall and Robinson, 1979). Kamen-Kaye (1970) warned that before drawing conclusions on the youth of the ocean floor, rocks must be penetrated to depths of up to 5 km to see whether there are Triassic, Paleozoic, or Precambrian sediments below the so-called "basement."

Plate tectonics predicts that the age of the oceanic crust should increase systematically with distance from the midocean ridge crests. Claims by DSDP scientists to have confirmed this are not supported by a detailed review of the

Plate Tectonics: A Paradigm Under Threat 3 25

drilling results. The dates exhibit a very large scatter, which becomes even larger if dredge hauls are included (Figure 5). On some marine magnetic anomalies, the age scatter is tens of millions of years (Meyerhoff et al., 1992a). On one seamount just west of the crest of the East Pacific Rise, the radiometric dates range from 2.4 to 96 million years. Although a general trend is discernible from younger sediments at ridge crests to older sediments away from them, this is in fact to be expected, because the crest is the highest and most active part of the ridge; older sediments are likely to be buried beneath younger volcanic rocks. The basalt layer in the ocean crust suggests that magma flooding was once oceanwide, but volcanism was subsequently re- stricted to an increasingly narrow zone centered on the ridge crests. Such magma floods were accompanied by progressive crustal subsidence in large sectors of the present oceans, beginning in the Jurassic (Beloussov, 1980; Keith, 1993).

The numerous finds in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans of rocks far older than 200 million years-many of them continental in nature-provide strong evidence against the alleged youth of the underlying crust. In the At- lantic, rock and sediment age should range from Cretaceous (120 million years) adjacent to the continents to very recent at the ridge crest. During legs 37 and 43 of the DSDP, Paleozoic and Proterozoic igneous rocks were recovered in cores on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Bermuda Rise, yet not one of these occurrences of ancient rocks was mentioned in the Cruise Site Reports or Cruise Synthesis Reports (Meyerhoff et al., 1996a). Aumento and Loncare- vic (1 969) reported that 75% of 84 rock samples dredged from the Bald Moun- tain region just west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge crest at 45ON consisted of continental-type rocks and commented that this was a "remarkable phenomenon"; so remarkable, in fact, that they decided to classify these rocks as "glacial er- ra t ic~" and to give them no further consideration. Another way of dealing with "anomalous" rock finds is to dismiss them as ship ballast. However, the Bald Mountain locality has an estimated volume of 80 km3, so it is hardly likely to have been rafted out to sea on an iceberg or dumped by a ship! It consists of granitic and silicic metamorphic rocks ranging in age from 1,690 to 1,550 million years and is intruded by 785-million-year mafic rocks (Wanless et al., 1968). Ozima et al. (1976) found basalts of Middle Jurassic age (169 million years) at the junction of the rift valley of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the At- lantis fracture zone (30°N), an area where basalt should theoretically be extremely young, and stated that they were unlikely to be ice-rafted rocks. Van Hinte and Ruffman (1995) concluded that Paleozoic limestones dredged from Orphan Knoll in the northwest Atlantic were in situ and not ice rafted.

In another attempt to explain away anomalously old rocks and anomalously shallow or emergent crust in certain parts of the ridges, some plate tectonicists have argued that "nonspreading blocks" can be left behind during rifting and that the spreading axis and related transform faults can jump from

326 David Pratt

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TRILOBITES: PERMIAN OR OLDER

norez, 197 1). This hypothesis was invoked by Pilot et al. (1998) to explain the presence of zircons with ages of 330 and 1,600 million years in gabbros beneath the Mid-Atlantic Ridge near the Kane fracture zone. Yet another way of dealing with anomalous rock ages is to reject them as unreliable. For instance, Reynolds and Clay (1977), reporting on a Proterozoic date (635 million years) near the crest of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, wrote that the age must be wrong because the theoretical age of the site was only about 10 million years.

Paleozoic trilobites and graptolites have been dredged from the King's Trough area, on the opposite side of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge to Bald Mountain, and at several localities near the Azores (Furon, 1949; Smoot and Meyerhoff, 1995). Detailed surveys of the equatorial segment of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge have provided a wide variety of data contradicting the seafloor-spreading model, including numerous shallow-water and continental rocks, with ages of up to 3.74 billion years (Timofeyev et al., 1992; Udintsev, 1996; Udintsev et al., 1993). Melson, Hart, and Thompson (1972), studying St. Peter and Paul's Rocks at the crest of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge just north of the equator, found an 835-million-year rock associated with other rocks giving 350-, 450-, and 2,000-million-year ages, whereas according to the seafloor-spreading model, the rock should have been 35 million years old. Numerous igneous and metamorphic rocks giving late Precambrian and Paleozoic radiometric ages have been dredged from the crests of the southern Mid-Atlantic, Mid-Indian, and Carlsberg ridges (Afanas' yev, 1967).

Precambrian and Paleozoic granites have been found in several "oceanic"

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plateaus and islands with anomalously thick crusts, including Rockall Plateau, Agulhas Plateau, the Seychelles, the Obruchev Rise, Papua New Guinea, and the Paracel Islands (Ben-Avraham et al., 1981; Sanchez Cela, 1999). In many cases, structural and petrological continuity exists between continents and anomalous "oceanic" crusts-a fact incompatible with seafloor spreading; this applies, for example, in the North Atlantic, where there is a continuous sialic basement, partly of Precambrian age, from North America to Europe. Major Precambrian lineaments in Australia and South America continue into the ocean floors, implying that the "oceanic" crust is at least partly composed of Precambrian rocks, and this has been confirmed by deep- sea dredging, drilling, and seismic data, and by evidence for submerged continental crust (ancient paleolands) in the present southeast and northwest Pacif- ic (Choi, 1997, 1998; see below).

Marine Magnetic Anomalies

Powerful support for seafloor spreading is said to be provided by marine magnetic anomalies-approximately parallel stripes of alternating high and low magnetic intensity that characterize much of the world's midocean ridges. According to the Morley-Vine-Matthews hypothesis, first proposed in 1963, as the fluid basalt welling up along the midocean ridges spreads horizontally and cools, it is magnetized by the earth's magnetic field. Bands of high intensity are believed to have formed during periods of normal magnetic polarity, and bands of low intensity during periods of reversed polarity. They are therefore regarded as time lines or isochrons. As plate tectonics became accepted, attempts to test this hypothesis or to find alternative hypotheses ceased.

Correlations have been made between linear magnetic anomalies on either side of a ridge, in different parts of the oceans, and with radiometrically dated magnetic events on land. The results have been used to produce maps showing how the age of the ocean floor increases steadily with increasing distance from the ridge axis (McGeary and Plummer, 1998, fig. 4.19). As shown above, this simple picture can be sustained only by dismissing the possibility of older sediments beneath the basalt "basement" and by ignoring numerous "anomalously" old rock ages.

The claimed correlations have been largely qualitative and subjective and are therefore highly suspect; virtually no effort has been made to test them quantitatively by transforming them to the pole (i.e., recalculating each magnetic profile to a common latitude). In one instance where transformation to the pole was carried out, the plate-tectonic interpretation of the magnetic anomalies in the Bay of Biscay was seriously undermined (Storetvedt, 1997). Agocs, Meyerhoff, and Kis (1992) applied the same technique in their detailed, quantitative study of the magnetic anomalies of the Reykjanes Ridge near Iceland and found that the correlations were very poor; the correlation coefficient along strike averaged 0.3 1 and that across the ridge 0.17, with lim-

328 David Pratt

Positive magnetic anomaly

Negative magnetic anomaly \ lRift at ridge crest

*EARTHQUAKE EPICENTERS. NOTE THAT LINEAR ANOMALIESCROSS MIDOCEAN RIDGE AT OFJLlWE ANGLE NORTH OF I C E L A N D

Fig. 6. Two views of marine magnetic anomalies. Top: A textbook cartoon. (Reprinted with permission from McGeary and Plummer, 1998. Copyright by The McGraw-Hill Compa- nies.) Bottom: Magnetic anomaly patterns of the North Atlantic. (Reprinted with permission from Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1972. Copyright by the American Geophysical Union.)

Linear anomalies are known from only 70% of the seismically active midocean ridges. Moreover, the diagrams of symmetrical, parallel, linear bands of anomalies displayed in many plate-tectonics publications bear little resem- blance to reality (Beloussov, 1970; Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1974b) (Figure 6). The anomalies are symmetrical to the ridge axis in less than 50% of the ridge system where they are present, and in about 21% of it, they are oblique to the trend of the ridge. In some areas, linear anomalies are present where a ridge system is completely absent. Magnetic measurements by instruments towed near the sea bottom have indicated that magnetic bands actually consist of many isolated ovals that may be joined together in different ways.

The initial, highly simplistic seafloor-spreading model for the origin of magnetic anomalies has been disproven by ocean drilling (Hall and Robinson, 1979; Pratsch, 1986). First, the hypothesis that the anomalies are produced in the upper 500 m of oceanic crust has had to be abandoned. Magnetic intensi- ties, general polarization directions, and often the existence of different polar-


ity zones at different depths suggest that the source for oceanic magnetic anomalies lies in deeper levels of oceanic crust not yet drilled (or dated). Sec- ond, the vertically alternating layers of opposing magnetic polarization directions disprove the theory that the oceanic crust was magnetized entirely as it spread laterally from the magmatic center and strongly indicate that oceanic crustal sequences represent longer geologic times than is now believed. A more likely explanation of marine magnetic anomalies is that they are caused by fault-related bands of rock of different magnetic properties and have nothing to do with seafloor spreading (Choi, Vasil'yev, and Tuezov, 1990; Grant, 1980; Morris 1990; Pratsch, 1986).

The fact that not all the charted magnetic anomalies are formed of oceanic crustal materials further undermines the plate-tectonic explanation. In the Labrador Sea, some anomalies occur in an area of continental crust that had previously been defined as oceanic (Grant, 1980). In the northwestern Pacific, some magnetic anomalies are likewise located within an area of continental crust-a submerged paleoland (Choi, Vasil'yev, and Tuezov, 1990; Choi, Vasil'yev, and Bhat, 1992). Magnetic anomaly bands strike into the continents in at least 15 places and "dive" beneath Proterozoic or younger rocks. Further- more, they are approximately concentric with respect to Archean continental shields (Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1972, 1974b). These facts imply that instead of being a "taped record" of seafloor spreading and geomagnetic field reversals during the past 200 million years, most oceanic magnetic anomalies are the sites of ancient fractures, which partly formed during the Proterozoic and have been rejuvenated since. The evidence also suggests that Archean continental nuclei have held approximately the same positions with respect to one another since their formation-which is utterly at variance with continental drift.

Subduction

Benioff zones are distinct earthquake zones that begin at an ocean trench and slope landward and downward into the earth. In plate tectonics, these deep-rooted fault zones are interpreted as "subduction zones" where plates descend into the mantle. They are generally depicted as 100-km-thick slabs descending into the earth either at a constant angle, or at a shallow angle near the earth's surface and gradually curving around to an angle of between 60" and 75". Neither representation is correct. Benioff zones often consist of two separate sections: an upper zone with an average dip of 33" extending to a depth of 70-400 km, and a lower zone with an average dip of 60" extending to a depth of up to 700 km (Benioff, 1954; Isacks and Barazangi, 1977). The upper and lower segments are sometimes offset by 100-200 km, and in one case by 350 km (Benioff, 1954, Smoot, 1997a). Furthermore, deep earthquakes are disconnected from shallow ones; very few intermediate earthquakes exist (Smoot, 1997a). Many studies have found transverse as well as vertical discontinuities and segmentation in Benioff zones (e.g., Carr, 1976;

330 David Pratt

5 0 0 - 600 - 7 0 0

0 KILOMETERS I 5 0 0 1600 KILOMETERS 0

Fig. 7. Cross-sections across the Peru-Chile trench (left) and Bonin-Honshu arc (right), showing hypocenters. (Reprinted with permission from Benioff, 1954. Copyright by the Geologi- cal Society of America.)

Carr, Stoiber, and Drake, 1973; Ranneft, 1979; Spence, 1977; Swift and Carr, 1974; Teisseyre et al., 1974). The evidence therefore does not favor the notion of a continuous, downgoing slab (Figure 7).

Plate tectonicists insist that the volume of crust generated at midocean ridges is equaled by the volume subducted. But whereas 80,000 km of midocean ridges are supposedly producing new crust, only 30,500 km of trenches exist. Even if we add the 9,000 km of "collision zones," the figure is still only half that of the "spreading centers" (Smoot, 1997a). With two minor exceptions (the Scotia and Lesser Antilles trenchlarc systems), Benioff zones are absent from the margins of the Atlantic, Indian, Arctic, and Southern Oceans. Many geological facts demonstrate that subduction is not taking place in the Lesser Antilles arc; if it were, the continental Barbados Ridge should now be 200-400 km beneath the Lesser Antilles (Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1974a). Kiskyras (1990) presented geological, volcanological, petrochemical, and seismological data contradicting the belief that the African plate is being subducted under the Aegean Sea.

Africa is allegedly being converged on by plates spreading from the east, south, and west, yet it exhibits no evidence whatsoever for the existence of subduction zones or orogenic belts. Antarctica, too, is almost entirely sur- rounded by alleged "spreading" ridges without any corresponding subduction zones but fails to show any signs of being crushed. It has been suggested that Africa and Antarctica may remain stationary while the surrounding ridge system migrates away from them, but this would require the ridge marking the "plate boundary" between Africa and Antarctica to move in opposite directions simultaneously (Storetvedt, 1997)!

If up to 13,000 km of lithosphere had really been subducted in circum-Pa- cific deep-sea trenches, vast amounts of oceanic sediments should have been scraped off the ocean floor and piled up against the landward margin of the trenches. However, sediments in the trenches are generally not present in the volumes required, nor do they display the expected degree of deformation


(Choi, 1999b; Gnibidenko, Krasny, and Popov, 1978; Storetvedt, 1997; Suzu- ki et al., 1997). Scholl and Marlow (1 974), who support plate tectonics, admitted to being "genuinely perplexed as to why evidence for subduction or off- scraping of trench deposits is not glaringly apparent" (p. 268). Plate tectonicists have had to resort to the highly dubious notion that unconsolidat- ed deep-ocean sediments can slide smoothly into a Benioff zone without leaving any significant trace. Moreover, fore-arc sediments, where they have been analyzed, have generally been found to be derived from the volcanic arc and the adjacent continental block, not from the oceanic region (Pratsch, 1990; Wezel, 1986). The very low level of seismicity, the lack of a megathrust, and the existence of flat-lying sediments at the base of oceanic trenches contradict the alleged presence of a downgoing slab (Dickins and Choi, 1998). Attempts by Murdock (1997), who accepts many elements of plate tectonics, to publi- cize the lack of a megathrust in the Aleutian trench (i.e., a million or more meters of displacement of the Pacific plate as it supposedly underthrusts the North American plate) have met with vigorous resistance and suppression by the plate-tectonics establishment.

Subduction along Pacific trenches is also refuted by the fact that the Be- nioff zone often lies 80 to 150 km landward from the trench, by the evidence that Precambrian continental structures continue into the ocean floor, and by the evidence for submerged continental crust under the northwestern and southeastern Pacific, where there are now deep abyssal plains and trenches (Choi, 1987, 1998, 1999c; Smoot 1998b; Tuezov, 1998). If the "Pacific plate" is colliding with and diving under the "North American plate," there should be a stress buildup along the San Andreas Fault. The deep Cajon Pass drill hole was intended to confirm this but showed instead that no such stress is present (C. W. Hunt, 1992).

In the active island-arc complexes of southeast Asia, the arcs bend back on themselves, forming hairpin-like shapes that sometimes involve full 180" changes in direction. This also applies to the postulated subduction zone around India. How plate collisions could produce such a geometry remains a mystery (Meyerhoff, 1995; H. A. Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1977). Rather than being continuous curves, trenches tend to consist of a row of straight segments, which sometimes differ in depth by more than 4 km. Aseismic buoyant features (e.g., seamounts), which are frequently found at the juncture of these segments, are connected with increased deep-earthquake and volcanic activity on the landward side of the trench, whereas theoretically their "arrival" at a subduction zone should reduce or halt such activity (Smoot, 1997a). Plate tectonicists admit that it is hard to see how the subduction of a cold slab could result in the high heat flow or arc volcanism in back-arc regions or how plate convergence could give rise to back-arc spreading (Uyeda, 1986). Evidence suggests that oceanic, continental, and back-arc rifts are actually tensional structures developed to relieve stress in a strong compressional stress system, and therefore have nothing to do with seafloor spreading (Dickins, 1997).

332 David Pratt

An alternative view of Benioff zones is that they are very ancient contraction fractures produced by the cooling of the earth (Meyerhoff et al., 1992b, 1996a). The fact that the upper part of the Benioff zones usually dips at less than 45" and the lower part at more than 45' suggests that the lithosphere is under compression and the lower mantle under tension. Furthermore, because a contracting sphere fractures along great circles (Bucher, 1956), this would account for the fact that both the circum-Pacific seismotectonic belt and the Alpine-Himalayan (Tethyan) belt lie on approximate circles. Finally, instead of oceanic crust being absorbed beneath the continents along ocean trenches, continents may actually be overriding adjacent oceanic areas to a limited extent, as is indicated by the historical geology of China, Indonesia, and the western Americas (Krebs, 1975; Pratsch, 1986; Storetvedt, 1997).

Uplift and Subsidence

Vertical Tectonics

Classical plate tectonics seeks to explain all geologic structures primarily in terms of simple lateral movements of lithospheric plates-their rifting, extension, collision, and subduction, But random plate interactions are unable to explain the periodic character of geological processes, i.e., the geotectonic cycle, which sometimes operates on a global scale (Wezel, 1992). Nor can they explain the large-scale uplifts and subsidences that have characterized the evolution of the earth's crust, particularly those occurring far from "plate boundaries" such as in continental interiors, and vertical oscillatory motions involving vast regions (Beloussov, 1980, 1990; Chckunov, Gordienko, and Guterman, 1990; Genshaft and Saltykowski, 1990; Ilich, 1972). The presence of marine strata thousands of meters above sea level (e.g., near the summit of Mount Everest) and the great thicknesses of shallow-water sediment in some old basins indicate that vertical crustal movements of at least 9 km above sea level and 10-1 5 km below sea level have taken place (Spencer, 1977).

Major vertical movements have also taken place along continental margins. For example, the Atlantic continental margin of North America has subsided by up to 12 km since the Jurassic (Sheridan, 1974). In Barbados, Ter- tiary coals representing a shallow-water, tropical environment occur beneath deep-sea oozes, indicating that during the last 12 million years, the crust sank to over 4-5 km depth for the deposition of the ooze and was then raised again. A similar situation occurs in Indonesia, where deep-sea oozes occur above sea level, sandwiched between shallow-water Tertiary sediments (James, 1994).

The primary mountain-building mechanism in plate tectonics is lateral compression caused by collisions-of continents, island arcs, oceanic plateaus, seamounts, and ridges. In this model, subduction proceeds without mountain building until collision occurs, whereas in the noncollision model subduction alone is supposed to cause mountain building. As well as being


plate tectonics have pointed out (e.g., Cebull and Shurbet, 1990, 1992; Van Andel, 1998). The noncollision model fails to explain how continuous subduction can give rise to discontinuous orogeny, while the collision model is challenged by occurrences of mountain building where no continental collision can be assumed, and it fails to explain contemporary mountain-building activity along such chains as the Andes and around much of the rest of the Pa- cific rim.

Asia supposedly collided with Europe in the late Paleozoic, producing the Ural mountains, but abundant geological field data demonstrate that the Siberian and East European (Russian) platforms have formed a single continent since Precambrian times (Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1974a). McGeary and Plummer (1998) state that the plate tectonic reconstruction of the formation of the Appalachians in terms of three successive collisions of North America seems "too implausible even for a science fiction plot" (p. 114) but add that an understanding of plate tectonics makes the theory more palatable. Ollier (1 990), on the other hand, states that fanciful plate-tectonic explanations ignore all the geomorphology and much of the known geological history of the Appalachians. He also says that of all the possible mechanisms that might account for the Alps, the collision of the African and European plates is the most naive.

The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau were supposedly uplifted by the collision of the Indian plate with the Asian plate. However, this fails to explain why the beds on either side of the supposed collision zone remain com- paratively undisturbed and low-dipping, whereas the Himalayas have been uplifted, supposedly as a consequence, some 100 km away, along with the Kunlun Mountains to the north of the Tibetan Plateau. River terraces in various parts of the Himalayas are almost perfectly horizontal and untilted, suggesting that the Himalayas were uplifted vertically, rather than as the result of horizontal compression (Ahmad, 1990). Collision models generally assume that the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau began during or after the early Eocene (post-50 million years), but paleontological, paleoclimatological, paleoeco- logical, and sedimentological data conclusively show that major uplift could not have occurred before earliest Pliocene time (5 million years ago) (Meyer- hoff, 1995).

There is ample evidence that mantle heat flow and material transport can cause significant changes in crustal thickness, composition, and density, resulting in substantial uplifts and subsidences. This is emphasized in many of the alternative hypotheses to plate tectonics (for an overview, see Yano and Suzuki, 1999), such as the model of endogenous regimes (Beloussov, 1980, 198 1, 1990, 1992; Pavlenkova, 1995, 1998). Plate tectonicists, too, increasingly invoke mantle diapirism as a mechanism for generating or promoting tectogenesis; there is now abundant evidence that shallow magma chambers are ubiquitous beneath active tectonic belts.

The popular hypothesis that crustal stretching was the main cause of the for-

334 David Pratt

mation of deep sedimentary basins on continental crust has been contradicted by numerous studies; mantle upwelling processes and lithospheric density increases are increasingly being recognized as an alternative mechanism (An- filoff, 1992; Artyushkov, 1992; Artyushkov and Baer, 1983; Pavlenkova, 1998; Zorin and Lepina, 1989). This may involve gabbro-eclogite phase trans- formations in the lower crust (Artyushkov, 1992; Haxby, Turcotte, and Bird, 1976; Joyner, 1967), a process that has also been proposed as a possible explanation for the continuing subsidence of the North Sea Basin, where there is likewise no evidence of large-scale stretching (Collette, 1968).

Plate tectonics predicts simple heat-flow patterns around the earth. There should be a broad band of high heat flow beneath the full length of the midocean rift system and parallel bands of high and low heat flow along the Be- nioff zones. Intraplate regions are predicted to have low heat flow. The pattern actually observed is quite different. There are criss-crossing bands of high heat flow covering the entire surface of the earth (Meyerhoff et al., 1996a). In- traplate volcanism is usually attributed to "mantle plumesw-upwellings of hot material from deep in the mantle, presumably the core-mantle boundary. The movement of plates over the plumes is said to give rise to hotspot trails (chains of volcanic islands and seamounts). Such trails should therefore show an age progression from one end to the other, but a large majority show little or no age progression (Baksi, 1999; Keith, 1993). On the basis of geological, geochemical, and geophysical evidence, Sheth (1999) argued that the plume hypothesis is ill-founded, artificial, and invalid, and has led earth scientists up a blind alley.

Active tectonic belts are located in bands of high heat flow, which are also characterized by several other phenomena that do not readily fit in with the plate-tectonics hypothesis. These include bands of microearthquakes (including "diffuse plate boundaries") that do not coincide with plate-tectonic-predicted locations; segmented belts of linear faults, fractures, and fissures; segmented belts of mantle upwellings and diapirs; vortical geological structures; linear lenses of anomalous (low-velocity) upper mantle that are commonly overlain by shallower, smaller low-velocity zones; the existence of bisymmet- rical deformation in all foldbelts, with coexisting states of compression and tension; strike-slip zones and similar tectonic lines ranging from simple rifts to Verschluckungszonen ("engulfment zones"); eastward-shifting tectonic- magmatic belts; and geothermal zones. Investigation of these phenomena has led to the development of a major new hypothesis of geodynamics, known as surge tectonics, which rejects both seafloor spreading and continental drift (Meyerhoff, 1995; Meyerhoff et al., 1992b, 1996a).

Surge tectonics postulates that all the major features of the earth's surface, including rifts, foldbelts, metamorphic belts, and strike-slip zones, are underlain by shallow (less than 80 km) magma chambers and channels (known as "surge channels"). Seismotomographic data suggest that surge channels form an interconnected worldwide network, which has been dubbed "the earth's


cardiovascular system." Surge channels coincide with the lenses of anomalous mantle and associated low-velocity zones referred to above, and active channels are also characterized by high heat flow and microseismicity. Magma from the asthenosphere flows slowly through active channels at the rate of a few centimeters a year. Horizontal flow is demonstrated by two major surface features: linear, belt-parallel faults, fractures, and fissures; and the division of tectonic belts into fairly uniform segments. The same features characterize all lava flows and tunnels and have also been observed on Mars, Venus, and several moons of the outer planets.

Surge tectonics postulates that the main cause of geodynamics is lithosphere compression, generated by the cooling and contraction of the earth. As compression increases during a geotectonic cycle, it causes the magma to move through a channel in pulsed surges and eventually to rupture it so that the contents of the channel surge bilaterally upward and outward to initiate tectogenesis. The asthenosphere (in regions where it is present) alternately contracts during periods of tectonic activity and expands during periods of tectonic quiescence. The earth's rotation, combined with differential lag between the more rigid lithosphere above and the more fluid asthenosphere below, causes the fluid or semifluid materials to move predominantly eastward. This explains the eastward migration through time of many magmatic or volcanic arcs, batholiths, rifts, depocenters, and foldbelts.

The Continents

It is a striking fact that nearly all the sedimentary rocks composing the continents were laid down under the sea. The continents have suffered repeated marine inundations, but because sediments were mostly deposited in shallow water (less than 250 m), the seas are described as "epicontinental." Marine transgressions and regressions are usually attributed mainly to eustatic changes of sea level caused by alterations in the volume of midocean ridges. Van Andel (1 994) points out that this explanation cannot account for the 100 or so briefer cycles of sea-level changes, particularly because transgressions and regressions are not always simultaneous all over the globe. He proposes that large regions or whole continents must undergo slow vertical, epeirogenic movements, which he attributes to an uneven distribution of temperature and density in the mantle, combined with convective flow. Some workers have linked marine inundations and withdrawals to a global thermal cycle, bringing about continental uplift and subsidence (Rutland, 1982; Sloss and Speed, 1974). Van Andel (1 994) admits that epeirogenic movements "fit poorly into plate tectonics" (p. 170) and are therefore largely ignored (Figures 8 and 9).

Van Andel (1994) asserts that "plates" rise or fall by no more than a few hundred meters-this being the maximum depth of most "epicontinental" seas. However, this overlooks an elementary fact: huge thicknesses of sediments were often deposited during marine incursions, often requiring vertical crustal movements of many kilometers. Sediments accumulate in regions of

336 David Pratt

Fig. 8. Maximum degree of marine inundation for each Phanerozoic geological period for the former USSR and North America. The older the geological period, the greater the probability of the degree of inundation being underestimated due to the sediments having been eroded or deeply buried beneath younger sediments. (Reprinted with permission from Harrison et al., 1983. Copyright by the American Geophysical Union.)

subsidence, and their thickness is usually close to the degree of downwarping. In the unstable, mobile belts bordering stable continental platforms, many geosynclinal troughs and circular depressions have accumulated sedimentary thicknesses of 10-14 km, and in some cases of 20 km. Although the sedimentary cover on the platforms themselves is often less than 1.5 km thick, basins with sedimentary thicknesses of 10 km and even 20 km are not unknown (Be- loussov, 198 1 ; Dillon, 1974; C. B. Hunt, 1992; Pavlenkova, 1998).

Subsidence cannot be attributed solely to the weight of the accumulating sediments because the density of sedimentary rocks is much lower than that of the subcrustal material; e.g., the deposition of 1 km of marine sediment will cause only half a kilometer or so of subsidence (Holmes, 1965; Jeffreys, 1976). Moreover, sedimentary basins require not only continual depression of the base of the basin to accommodate more sediments, but also continuous uplift of adjacent land to provide a source for the sediments. In geosynclines, subsidence has commonly been followed by uplift and folding to produce mountain ranges, and this can obviously not be accounted for by changes in surface loading. The complex history of the oscillating uplift and subsidence of the crust appears to require deep-seated changes in lithospheric composition and density, as well as vertical and horizontal movements of mantle material. That density is not the only factor involved is shown by the fact that in regions of tectonic activity vertical movements often intensify gravity anomalies rather than acting to restore isostatic equilibrium. For example, the Greater Caucasus is overloaded, yet it is rising rather than subsiding (Be- loussov, 1980; Jeffreys, 1976).

In regions where all the sediments were laid down in shallow water, subsidence must somehow have kept pace with sedimentation. In eugeosynclines, on the other hand, subsidence proceeded faster than sedimentation, resulting


i +ASIA A AUSTRALIA x x AFRICA

300 OS. AMER. A N. AMER. x *EUROPE x

250 A

*AVERAGE x x

Fig. 9. Sea-level changes for six continents. For each time interval, the sea-level elevations for the various continents differ widely, highlighting the importance of vertical tectonic movements on a regional and continental scale. (Reprinted with permission from Hallam, 1977. Copyright by Nature.)

in a marine basin several kilometers deep. Examples of eugeosynclines prior to the uplift stage are the Sayans in the early Paleozoic, the eastern slope of the Urals in the early and middle Paleozoic, the Alps in the Jurassic and early Cre- taceous, and the Sierra Nevada in the Triassic (Beloussov, 1980). Plate tectonicists often claim that geosynclines are formed solely at plate margins at the boundaries between continents and oceans. However, there are many examples of geosynclines having formed in intracontinental settings (Holmes, 1965), and the belief that the ophiolites found in certain geosynclinal areas are invariably remnants of oceanic crust is contradicted by a large volume of evidence (Beloussov, 198 l ; Bhat, 1987; Luts, 1990; Sheth, 1997).

The Oceans

In the past, sialic clastic material has been transported to today's continents from the direction of the present-day oceans, where there must have been considerable areas of land that underwent erosion (Beloussov, 1962; Dickins, Choi, and Yeates, 1992). For instance, the Paleozoic geosyncline along the seaboard of eastern North America, an area now occupied by the Appalachian mountains, was fed by sialic clasts from a borderland ("Appalachia") in the adjacent Atlantic. Other submerged borderlands include the North Atlantic Continent or Scandia (west of Spitsbergen and Scotland), Cascadia (west of the Sierra Nevada), and Melanesia (southeast of Asia and east of Australia) (Gilluly, 1955; Holmes, 1965; Umbgrove, 1947). A million cubic kilometers of Devonian micaceous sediments from Bolivia to Argentina imply an extensive continental source to the west where there is now the deep Pacific Ocean (Carey, 1994). During Paleozoic-Mesozoic-Paleogene times, the Japanese

338 David Pratt

geosyncline was supplied with sediments from land areas in the Pacific (Choi, 1984, 1987).

When trying to explain sediment sources, plate tectonicists sometimes argue that sediments were derived from the existing continents during periods when they were supposedly closer together (Bahlburg, 1993; Dickins, 1994a; Holmes, 1965). Where necessary, they postulate small former land areas (microcontinents or island arcs), which have since been either subducted or ac- creted against continental margins as "exotic terranes" (Choi, 1984; Kumon et al., 1988; Nur and Ben-Avraham, 1982). However, mounting evidence is being uncovered that favors the foundering of sizable continental landmasses, whose remnants are still present under the ocean floor (see below).

Oceanic crust is regarded as much thinner and denser than continental crust: The crust beneath oceans is said to average about 7 km thick and to be composed largely of basalt and gabbro, whereas continental crust averages about 35 km thick and consists chiefly of granitic rock capped by sedimentary rocks. However, ancient continental rocks and crustal types intermediate between standard "continental" and "oceanic" crust are increasingly being discovered in the oceans (Sanchez Cela, 1999), and this is a serious embarrassment for plate tectonics. The traditional picture of the crust beneath oceans being universally thin and graniteless may well be further undermined in the future, as oceanic drilling and seismic research continue. One difficulty is to distinguish the boundary between the lower oceanic crust and upper mantle in areas where high- and low-velocity layers alternate (Choi, Vasil'yev, and Bhat, 1992; Or- lenok, 1986). For example, the crust under the Kuril deep-sea basin is 8 km thick if the 7.9 kmls velocity layer is taken as the crust-mantle boundary (Moho), but 20-30 km thick if the 8.2 or 8.4 kmls layer is taken as the Moho (Tuezov, 1 998).

Small ocean basins cover an area equal to about 5% of that of the continents and are characterized by transitional types of crust (Menard, 1967). This applies to the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the Japan Sea, the Okhotsk Sea, the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea, the Mediterranean, the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay, and the marginal (back-arc) basins along the western side of the Pacific (Beloussov and Ruditch, 196 1 ; Choi, 1984; Grant, 1992; Ross, 1974; Sheridan, 1974). In plate tectonics, the origin of marginal basins, with their complex crustal structure, has remained an enigma, and there is no basis for the assumption that some kind of seafloor spreading must be involved; rather, they appear to have originated by vertical tectonics (Storetvedt, 1997; Wezel, 1986). Some plate tectonicists have tried to explain the transitional crust of the Caribbean in terms of the continentalization of a former deep ocean area, thereby ignoring the stratigraphic evidence that the Caribbean was a land area in the Early Mesozoic (Van Bemmelen, 1972).

There are over 100 submarine plateaus and aseismic ridges scattered throughout the oceans, many of which were once subaerially exposed (Dick- ins, Choi, and Yeates, 1992; Nur and Ben-Avraham, 1982; Storetvedt, 1997)


Fig. 10. Worldwide distribution of oceanic plateaus (black). (Reprinted with permission from Storetvedt, 1997. Copyright by Fagbokforlaget and K. M. Storetvedt.)

(Figure 10). They make up about 10% of the ocean floor. Many appear to be composed of modified continental crust 20-40 km thick-far thicker than "normal" oceanic crust. They often have an upper 10-1 5-km crust with compressional-wave velocities typical of granitic rocks in continental crust. They have remained obstacles to predrift continental fits and have therefore been interpreted as extinct spreading ridges, anomalously thickened oceanic crust, or subsided continental fragments carried along by the "migrating" seafloor. If seafloor spreading is rejected, they cease to be anomalous and can be interpreted as submerged, in situ continental fragments that have not been completely "oceanized."

Shallow-water deposits ranging in age from mid-Jurassic to Miocene, as well as igneous rocks showing evidence of subaerial weathering, were found in 149 of the first 493 boreholes drilled in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans. These shallow-water deposits are now found at depths of 1-7 km, demonstrating that many parts of the present ocean floor were once shallow seas, shallow marshes, or land areas (Orlenok, 1986; Timofeyev and Kholodov, 1984). From a study of 402 oceanic boreholes in which shallow- water or relatively shallow-water sediments were found, Ruditch (1 990) concluded that there is no systematic correlation between the age of shallow- water accumulations and their distance from the axes of the midoceanic ridges, thereby disproving the seafloor-spreading model. Some areas of the oceans appear to have undergone continuous subsidence, whereas others experienced alternating episodes of subsidence and elevation. The Pacific

340 David Pratt

Ocean appears to have formed mainly from the Late Jurassic to the Miocene, the Atlantic Ocean from the Late Cretaceous to the end of the Eocene, and the Indian Ocean during the Paleocene and Eocene.

In the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, modified continental crust (mostly 10-20 km thick) underlies not only ridges and plateaus, but most of the ocean floor; only in deep-water depressions is typical oceanic crust found. Because deep-sea drilling has shown that large areas of the North Atlantic were previously covered with shallow seas, it is possible that much of the North Atlantic was continental crust before its rapid subsidence (Pavlenkova, 1995, 1998; Sanchez Cela, 1999). Lower Paleozoic continental rocks with trilobite fossils have been dredged from seamounts scattered over a large area northeast of the Azores. Furon (1 949) concluded that the continental cobbles had not been carried there by icebergs and that the area concerned was a submerged continental zone. Bald Mountain, from which a variety of ancient continental material has been dredged, could certainly be a foundered continental fragment. In the equatorial Atlantic, shallow-water and continental rocks are ubiquitous (Tim- ofeyev et al., 1992; Udintsev, 1996).

There is evidence that the midocean ridge system was shallow or partially emergent in Cretaceous to Early Tertiary time. For instance, in the Atlantic, subaerial deposits have been found on the North Brazilian Ridge (Bader et al., 197 I), near the Romanche and Vema fracture zones adjacent to equatorial sectors of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Bonatti and Chermak, 198 1 ; Bonatti and Hon- norez, 197 I), on the crest of the Reykjanes Ridge, and in the Faeroe-Shetland region (Keith, 1993) (Figure 1 1).

Oceanographic and geological data suggest that a large part of the Indian Ocean, particularly the eastern part, was land ("Lemuria") from the Jurassic until the Miocene. The evidence includes seismic and palynological data and subaerial weathering, which suggest that the Broken and Ninety East Ridges were part of an extensive, now sunken landmass; extensive drilling, seismic, magnetic, and gravity data pointing to the existence an Alpine-Himalayan foldbelt in the northwestern Indian Ocean, associated with a foundered continental basement; data that continental basement underlies the Scott, Exmouth, and Naturaliste plateaus west of Australia; and thick Triassic and Jurassic sedimentation on the western and northwestern shelves of the Australian continent, which shows progradation and current direction indicating a western source (Dickins, 1994a; Udintsev, Illarionov, and Kalinin, 1990; Udintsev and Koreneva, 1982; Wezel, 1988).

Geological, geophysical, and dredging data provide strong evidence for the presence of Precambrian and younger continental crust under the deep abyssal plains of the present northwest Pacific (Choi, Vasil'yev, and Bhat, 1992; Choi, Vasil'yev, and Tuezov, 1990). Most of this region was either subaerially exposed or very shallow sea during the Paleozoic to Early Mesozoic and first became deep sea about the end of the Jurassic. Paleolands apparently existed on both sides of the Japanese islands. They were largely emergent during the Pa- leozoic-Mesozoic-Paleogene but were totally submerged during Paleogene to


Fig. 1 I . Areas in the Atlantic Ocean for which past subsidence has been established. Subsided areas are shaded. (Reprinted with permission from Dillon, 1974. Copyright by the AAPG, whose permission is required for further use.)

Miocene times. Those on the Pacific side included the great Oyashio paleoland and the Kuroshio paleoland. The latter, which was as large as the present Japanese islands and occupied the present Nankai Trough area, subsided in the Miocene, at the same time as the upheaval of the Shimanto geosyncline, to which it had supplied vast amounts of sediments (Choi, 1984, 1987; Harata et al., 1978; Kumon et al., 1988). There is also evidence of paleolands in the southwest Pacific around Australia (Choi, 1997) and in the southeast Pacific during the Paleozoic and Mesozoic (Bahlburg, 1993; Choi, 1998; Isaacson, 1975; Isaacson and Martinez, 1995) (Figure 12).

After surveying the extensive evidence for former continental land areas in the present oceans, Dickins, Choi, and Yeates (1 992) concluded,

We are surprised and concerned for the objectivity and honesty of science that such data can be overlooked or ignored. There is a vast need for future Ocean Drilling Pro- gram initiatives to drill below the base of the basaltic ocean floor crust to confirm the real composition of what is currently designated oceanic crust. (p. 198)

Conclusion

Plate tectonics-the reigning paradigm in the earth sciences-faces some very severe and apparently fatal problems. Far from being a simple, elegant,

342 David Pratt

Fig. 12. Former land areas in the present Pacific and Indian Oceans. Only those areas for which substantial evidence already exists are shown. Their exact outlines and full extent are as yet unknown. G1, Seychelles area; G2, Great Oyashio Paleoland; G3, Obruchev Rise; G4, Lemuria; S1, area of Ontong-Java Plateau, Magellan Sea Mounts, and Mid-Pacific Mountains; S2, Northeast Pacific; S3, Southeast Pacific including Chatham Rise and Campbell Plateau; S4, Southwest Pacific; S5, area including South Tasman Rise; S6, East Tasman Rise and Lord Howe Rise; S7, Northeast Indian Ocean; S8, Northwest Indian Ocean. (Reprinted with permission from Dickins, 1994a, 1994b. Copyright by J. M. Dickins.)

all-embracing global theory, it is confronted with a multitude of observational anomalies and has had to be patched up with a complex variety of ad hoc modifications and auxiliary hypotheses. The existence of deep continental roots and the absence of a continuous, global asthenosphere to "lubricate" plate motions have rendered the classical model of plate movements untenable. There is no consensus on the thickness of the "plates" and no certainty as to the forces responsible for their supposed movement. The hypotheses of large- scale continental movements, seafloor spreading, and subduction, as well as the relative youth of the oceanic crust are contradicted by a substantial volume of data. Evidence for significant amounts of submerged continental crust in the present-day oceans provides another major challenge to plate tectonics. The fundamental principles of plate tectonics therefore require critical reex- amination, revision, or rejection.

Acknowledgments

I would kike to thank Ismail Bhat, Dong Choi, Mac Dickins, Hetu Sheth, and Chris Smoot for helpful comments and discussions.


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Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 353-364, 2000 0892-33 10100 O 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

The Effect of the "Laying On of Hands" on Transplanted Breast Cancer in Mice

WILLIAM F. BENGSTON

St. Joseph S College, Patchogue, NY 11 772 e-mail: wbengston @sjcny.edu

2216 NE Douglas Street Newport, Oregon 97365

Abstract-After witnessing numerous cases of cancer remission associated with a healer who used "laying on of hands" in New York, one of us (W.B.) "apprenticed" in techniques alleged to reproduce the healing effect. We obtained five experimental mice with mammary adenocarcinoma (code: H27 12; host strain: C3HlHeJ; strain of origin: C3H/HeHu), which had a predicted 100% fatality between 14 and 27 days subsequent to injection. Bengston treated these mice for 1 hour per day for 1 month. The tumors developed a "blackened area," then they ulcerated, imploded, and closed, and the mice lived their normal life spans. Control mice sent to another city died within the predicted time frame. Three replications using skeptical volunteers (including D.K.) and laboratories at Queens College and St. Joseph's College produced an overall cure rate of 87.9% in 33 experimental mice. An additional informal test by Krinsley at Arizona State resulted in the same patterns. Histological studies indicated viable cancer cells through all stages of remission. Reinjec- tions of cancer into the mice in remission in Arizona and New York did not take, suggesting a stimulated immunological response to the treatment. Our tentative conclusions: Belief in laying on of hands is not necessary in order to produce the effect; there is a stimulated immune response to treatment, which is reproducible and predictable; and the mice retain an immunity to the same cancer after remission. Future work should involve testing on various diseases and conventional immunological studies of treatment effects on experimental animals.

Keywords: mammary cancer remission - cancer remission - healing - laying on of hands - healer - alternative medicine.

Introduction

Researchers who have studied psi phenomena in general and healing in particular have been plagued by the apparent unreliability of the phenomena. Added to this problem are unresolved questions of the role and necessity of belief, and the question of whether subjects can be taught to produce significant effects. Our research on healing addresses these issues and appears to present a reliable and potentially efficacious production of healing taught to, and produced by, nonbelieving subjects.

354 William F. Bengston & David Krinsley

Previous Research

There is a growing body of research into what has been variously termed "anomalous" or "paranormal healing," "healing with intent," "spiritual healing," "Therapeutic Touch," and "laying on of hands," to name but a few. There are by now so many terms used interchangeably that some researchers do not even distinguish among them (Bunnell, 1999). Compilations of controlled studies (Benor, 1992; Murphy, 1992) often cluster previous work by the subject of the intended healing. Benor (1 992), for example, discusses healing action on enzymes, cells in the laboratory, fungilyeasts, bacteria, plants, single- cell organisms, animals, electrodermal activity, and human physical problems among the areas that have been submitted to controlled scientific study. And although some studies in each of these areas have produced significant results, they are nevertheless dogged by unresolved questions of reliability.

Benor (1 992) reports that psi phenomena in general tend to be demonstrated only in the first series of experiments but not in attempted replications. In healing research, for example, Snel (1980) reported significantly inhibited growth of mouse leukemia cells in tissue culture, but not on attempted replication. Even thoroughly studied and practiced healer Oskar Estebany has shown an inability to reproduce significant effects of trypsin in vitro when he was personally not at ease (Smith, 1972). Healers are reported to be unable to produce sufficiently consistent results, frustrating some researchers into claiming that it is virtually impossible to establish a repeatable experiment in which healing occurs in the same combination more than once (Benor, 1990). And because healing does not conform even statistically in regularly repeatable fashion, skeptics can argue that claims for healing efficacy probably present chance variations, rather than responses to healing treatment (Benor, 1990).

The question of the role of belief in producing psi phenomena has also been debated. The well-known sheep-goat effect (Schmeidler, 1945; Schmeidler and Murphy, 1946; Palmer, 197 1) does not seem to carry over consistently into healing. Many presume that some sort of faith is a requisite for positive results in healing, and some even argue that skeptical observers may inhibit the effectiveness of the treatment (Benor, 1990). But there is not agreement on the issue. Grad (1961) found that skeptical medical students treating cages of mice produce slower healing than the untreated control group. On the other hand, Krieger's study of Therapeutic Touch (1979) found that belief in the effectiveness of healing does not affect its success.

There is also disagreement about whether healing can be taught or whether it is entirely an innate ability. Reviewing some biographies of well-known healers, Benor (1992) notes that the Russian healer Yefin Shubentsov believes it is a physiological process that can be taught to anyone. Dolores Krieger's Thera- peutic Touch method claims that to become a healer, a person must have clear intentions, motivation to help, and an ability to understand personal motivation for wanting to heal. On the other hand, both Oskar Estebany and Olga Worrell felt that healing could not be developed by study. Experimentally,

Effect of the "Laying on of Hands" 355

though, Nash (1980, 1984) found that subjects not known to be healers could be taught to significantly affect the growth of bacteria in cultures.

Our research addresses these issues of reliability, belief, and "teachability" in healing experimental mice, and by extension, the question of the efficacy of healing is raised.

Certainly all healing work in experimental animals must acknowledge the pioneering work of Grad (1961, 1965, 1976), who set the stage and the stan- dards for work in this area. In the first controlled experiments, Grad studied the Hungarian healer Oskar Estebany's ability to accelerate the healing rate of mice with one-half by one-inch wounds. Estebany held the cages of mice twice daily for 15 minutes. The treated group healed significantly more rapidly than the untreated group (Grad, 196 1). Grad also induced goiters in mice by feeding them an iodine-deficient diet (Grad, 1976). The thyroid glands of mice treated by a healer twice daily for 15 months grew significantly more slowly than those of the control mice. This effect was also obtained when Estebany did not treat the mice directly with his hands, but instead held in his hands cotton cut- tings, which were placed in contact with the mice in the cages.

There has been little work done in the area of cancer in live animals. Onetto and Elguin (1966) experimented in inhibiting tumor growth in mice that had been injected subcutaneously with a tumoral suspension. They found the area, weight, and volume of tumor growth in one group of 30 tumorigenic mice was significantly less than that of 30 untreated control mice. Interestingly, a second group of 30 mice was treated in an attempt to increase tumor growth, but these mice did not differ from the control mice.

Null (198 1) gave 50 healers two mice each to screen for their ability to pro- long the lives of mice injected with cancer cells. Only one healer produced total tumor regression in one of his mice, and the other survived longer than predicted. The one successful healer was then asked to twice replicate the healing on 10 mice. The healer was able to extend the average survival of the treated mice to a statistically significant number of days beyond that of the control group (Grad, 1976).

The Present Research

Our research grew out of an attempt to empirically test a New York-based healer. This individual claimed that without the benefit of study or training, he was naturally able to perform psychometry, or token object reading, as well as healings by laying on of hands. Over the course of several years, Bengston watched hundreds of people being treated for conditions covering a wide range of afflictions. Some conditions such as long-term diabetes seemed to respond slowly while others such as cancer appeared to respond almost immediately.

Among the most interesting observations was that the entire process did not involve belief of any sort. The person being healed was not asked to believe in anything, and the healer himself did not espouse belief. Truly, the healings could be considered "faithless" on the part of all concerned. Anecdotally, it


appeared that nonbelievers responded more dramatically than believers. Con- ventional medical tests determined the success or failure of treatment.

Over the course of months of questioning by Bengston about the process by which the healer was able to treat others, techniques were developed wherein the healer claimed that complete skeptics could be trained to reproduce healing effects. The techniques did not involve belief of any sort, nor did they include meditation, focused visualization, spiritual discipline, or lifestyle changes. The initial techniques involved a series of routine mental tasks that were not directly intended to produce healing. Subsequent to mastery, these would be followed by laying on of hands. The mental techniques required several weeks of practice to achieve sufficient mastery to move to the laying on of hands techniques.

We wanted to test the authenticity of the healings in a rigorously controlled setting that would allow for completely unambiguous results. For obvious reasons, "clinical" work with humans involves less than ideal conditions, so we asked the healer if he would come into a laboratory and attempt to treat laboratory animals. He initially agreed, but just before the start of our experiment, he refused to participate. At that point, Bengston, who had apprenticed the longest and spent the most time learning the techniques, reluctantly became the first experimental healer.

Methods and Data

The First Experiment

Krinsley was a professor at Queens College of the City University of New York. He had arranged for a disinterested professor of biology who was doing conventional cancer research to prepare experimental animals. Her area of expertise was mammary cancer, so she was familiar with mammary adenocarcinoma and obtained from The Jackson Laboratory a "standard" mammary adenocarcinoma (code H2712; host strain C3JlHeJ; strain of origin C3HIHeHu). The normal progression after the mouse is injected is the development of a nonmetastatic palpable and visible tumor that grows so large that it crushes the internal organs of the host. Host survival in the conventional literature was 100% fatality between 14 and 27 days after injection.

The experimental procedure was planned as follows: Bengston was to place his hands around the outside of a standard laboratory plastic cage containing six mice for 1 hour per day while applying the healing technique, beginning 3 days after injection. At no time were the mice to be directly touched. Six control mice were kept in a separate laboratory in the same building. One experimental mouse died of natural causes before treatment began, so only five mice were actually treated. Our initial hope was that we might get a significant difference in survival between the experimental animals and their controls. Re- mission was not seriously considered.

Our results were totally beyond expectation. About 10 days into the procedure, the experimental mice began to develop a "blackened area" on their tu-

Effect o f the "Laying on of Hands"

Fig. I . Typical mouse 14 days after rnlcctlon.

rnors (Figures 1 and 2). At this point, Beng\ton presumed that the experiment was failing and wantcd to call it off. Krinsley convinced him to continue, rea- soning that there was nothing to lose. Approximately I week later, the blackened areas "ulcerated" as if they had bccn split open (Figures 3 and 4). In some

Fig. 2. Twenty-two days after 111jectlor1


Fig. 3. Twenty-eight days after injection.

cases, the ulceration grew extremely large (Figure 5 ) then appeared to implode (not shown), and the wound closed. The mice then lived their normal life span of approximately 2 years. Tn the figures, the index card notation "A-3" identi- fies the mouse, and the day number indicates elapsed time since injection. In

Fig. 4. Thirty-five days after injection.


Figure I (Day 14), the tumor is visible o n the left posterior dorsal aspect of the mouse.

On Day 22 (Figure 2 ) , the tumor is clearly larger but has developed an en- crusted area on i t \ surt'ace (nlost posterior aspect of the tumor). This is the earliest indication of lu111o1- regression.

Days 28, 35, and 38 (Figures 3 through 5 ) illustrate the next significant stage. The tumor appears to be resorbed internally and remains clear of infec- tion. From this stage on, the tumor regresses completely (not shown), and the mouse lives its norsilal life span.

The control mice presented us with sorne llniyue challenges. In the initial stages o f developing the experimental procedure, the healer warned that he could not be near or see the control mice, or they, too, would go into remission. Although skeptical, we agreed to keep the control mice in another laboratory. When Rengston became the substitute healer, we relaxed this protocol. After two control mice had died "on schedule7'-- that is, between 14 and 17 days after ir~jectior~-Bengsttrr? went to see the remaining four. They exhibited normal tumor progression patterns and were obviously in the last stages of the disease. However, after Hengston observeci the four control mice in their cage, several days later, they too developed the blackened area, the tumor ulcerated, and the mice went into full remission, although they lagged behind the regularly treated experimental mice in remission rate.

The Set-ond Experitucrlt

The results of our first experiment clearly amazed and confounded us, and we immediately set out to replicate the procedure. Krinsley offered to try the tech-


nique, and he solicited a skeptical faculty volunteer from Queens College who had neither belief nor experience with any sort of paranormal phenomena. Bengston approached a half dozen students at St. Joseph's College to act as volunteers and selected the two most skeptical students to serve as healers. The two students also had no previous experience with anomalous healing phenomena, did not believe in the legitimacy of healing, and reported afterward that they believed Bengston was actually conducting a study on student gullibility.

Bengston trained the four volunteers for several hours once a week for 6 weeks. Between training sessions, the volunteers were assigned practice mental tasks. Each volunteer was then given one cage with two mice. One experimental mouse died of natural causes 2 days after treatment began, reducing the actual number of experimental mice to seven. There were six control mice in an adjacent laboratory in the same building.

All seven experimental mice developed the remission pattern and lived their normal life span. Without our knowledge, and despite warnings to not do so, after two control mice had died, the faculty volunteer at Queens College began daily observations of the remaining four. All four of the remaining control mice then went into remission.

The Third Experiment

This experiment produced the most puzzling results. We moved the study to the Brooklyn campus of St. Joseph's College, where we convinced Carol Hayes, the extremely skeptical chairperson of the biology department, to perform the procedure. She agreed as long as she could pick some volunteers. She selected three undergraduate biology majors; Bengston selected two volunteer healers: one undergraduate sociology major and one child study major. As in the second experiment, all participants had no previous paranormal experiences and were nonbelievers in the legitimacy of laying on of hands. They were trained by Bengston in an identical manner to the second experiment.

In this run, we attempted to solve the problem of control remissions and to find out if every volunteer could individually produce remissions. Thus, each volunteer was given one mouse to treat in the laboratory and one mouse to treat at home. We reasoned that because exposure to a trained individual appeared to produce remissions in previous experiments, in order to test whether each individual was effective, he or she had to remit their "private" mouse at home. It followed from the previous results that if any student could produce remissions, then all five experimental laboratory mice should also remit.

There were two control groups. The first was a cage with six mice in an adjacent laboratory in the same building. The second control group was a cage with four untreated mice sent to a laboratory in another city known only to the experimental biologist.

The results of this run have frustrated attempts to discern a pattern. All five experimental mice taken home by the students remitted. But in the laboratory, all three of the experimental mice treated by the biology majors died within the


expected time frame. Only the sociology and child study majors were able to remit their mouse in the laboratory.

Even as the biology majors' experimental mice died, the biology students began to look in on the control mice in the adjacent lab after three had died, and the remaining three control mice remitted. All four of the control mice sent to a distant city died well within the expected 27-day maximum.

The Fourth Experiment

The fourth experiment took place entirely in a laboratory at the Brooklyn campus of St. Joseph's College. As in the third experiment, the mice were prepared and monitored by Carol Hayes, the chairperson of the biology department. In the previous experiments, any mouse that developed a "blackened area" followed our now "classic pattern" to full remission. None of the mice that died developed this blackened area. As such, we were now confident that about 3 weeks after injection, we could spot with certainty which mice would be completely cured and which would die. Thus, we decided to repeat the experiment; this time sacrificing all the mice 38 days after injection. We selected 38 days because at this point, some of the mice would still have large ulcerations and some would have already closed wounds and be fully remitted.

Six student volunteers were given a cage with two mice each. One of the students was a biology major who had failed to remit his mouse in the laboratory in the third experiment and wanted to try again; two more students had been volunteers in a previous run and wanted to do it again out of sheer disbelief at the results they had obtained. Bengston chose three new and skeptical volunteers who were not biology majors. Unknown to us, the experimental biologist elected to not inject one mouse to observe any behavioral changes (there were none); one mouse was given two separate injections. In all, there were 11 viable experimental mice with cancer.

Eight mice on site served as the first control group. And four mice were sent to a laboratory in another city to serve as the second control group.

Ten of eleven of the experimental mice were in various stages of the remission process when they were sacrificed on Day 38 after injection. One experimental mouse never developed the blackened area and died on Day 30 after injection. Although 30 days is technically beyond the predicted 100% fatality, within 27 days, we considered this mouse to have not responded to treatment. Seven of eight on-site control mice, which were regularly looked in on by the student volunteers, remitted. All four of the control mice sent to a laboratory in another city died within the expected time frame.

After the mice were sacrificed, we sent tissue samples out to an independent laboratory for histological analysis. Viable mammary adenocarcinoma cells were present at all stages of remission. Only those mice whose ulcerations were completely closed were free of cancer. A summary of the four experi-

William F. Bengston & David Krinsley

TABLE Summary of Remission Patterns

Experiment No. of Remissions

N remissions (%)

Experiment 1 Experimental mice Control mice on site

Experiment 2 Experimental mice Control mice on site

Experiment 3 Experimental mice Control mice on site Control mice off site

Experiment 4 Experimental mice Control mice on site Control mice off site

Overall results Experimental Mice Control mice on site Control mice off site

Discussion and Conclusions

We offer several preliminary conclusions. First, the treatment was successful in curing mammary adenocarcinoma. Second, it is apparent that stated belief in anomalous phenomena in general, or healing through laying on of hands in particular, is not necessary to produce healing of mammary adenocarcinoma in laboratory mice. None of the experimental healers were believers, though as the experiments progressed, they clearly hoped that their mice would live. De- spite the attachment they felt toward their mice, most could be considered at least fairly strong skeptics. We cannot generalize that anyone can produce these remissions, since our sample of volunteers was clearly a nonrepresenta- tive convenience sample. Actually, we have never tested whether believers or people who have allegedly experienced or produced previous anomalous phenomena are also able to produce remissions of this type of tumor.

Third, given the peculiar situation that biology majors were unable to produce remissions in the laboratory but were able to do so at home (the third experiment), it is also possible that systematic intellectual activity (these students kept scientific logs) is antagonistic to the production of healing effects.

Fourth, it seems likely that there is a stimulated immune response to treatment. There are several reasons to draw this conclusion. The discovery in the fourth experiment that there were viable mammary adenocarcinoma cells during tumor remission is consistent with an immune response (though cutting off of the blood supply to the tumor might produce similar effects).

Effect of the "Laying on of Hands"

Fig. 6. Example ol'large ulceration

Some of' the ulcerations grew extre~nely large (Figure 6), yet no mozise ever developed any gros.s signs c?finfection, P V C J ~ Z ~ t+ l~ t~ t l ltzt' x i ~ e of the ulceration alone should huve been enough to kill it. Finally, and perhaps most persuasively, we were unaware that the experimental biologist at St. Joseph's College had rein- jected several remitted mice months after the experiments were over. Without ,further treatment, tlzese mice were immune to thr. nlatnmury a&nocarcinoma.

Finally, we may conclucie that we are apparently able to cure mammary adenocarcinoma in experimental mice on demand. The reliability of the procedure has been established (we have also produced remissions at Arizona State Uni- versity, though the results are not reported here).

Future Reseclrch

We find ourselves in a somewhat unique position, because the bane ofprevi- o ~ l s research into anomalous phenomena ha\ often been the lack of predictability o f results. Several interesting possibilities emerge.

In terms of mammary adenocarcinorna, conventional immunological studies of mice in future experiments might yield data suggestive of the process by which remissions occur. Are there any new antibodies or an increased production of antibodies occurririg during tumor regression? If so, long-term goals might include attempting to stimulate the identified immunological reaction without the laying on of hands. In short, the results of these healing techniques might provide useful information about how to reproduce the remissions using more conventional therapies.

Other types of cancer need to be studied to see whether they also respond to


the healing techniques used here. To date, experimentally we have only treated mammary adenocarcinoma.

Finally, because we have established such a degree of reliability, the healing techniques can be used to try to discern what is happening between the healer and the animal. Experiments can be designed to shed light on the mechanisms by which anomalous healing actually occurs. For example, in producing remissions in other species of mammals, we have anecdotally observed that the speed of remission is a function of the size of the animal. Larger animals remit more slowly than smaller ones. Are the different response rates due to metabo- lism rate, the mass of the animal, or the spreading of a healing energy over a wider area? Would 50 mice simultaneously treated remit at a slower rate than 25? The possibilities for research are almost endless.

Acknowledgments

We gratefully acknowledge the input of Bernard Grad, Eugene Carpenter, Ted and Diane Mann, Joann LaScala, and Daniel J. Benor.

References

Benor, D. (1990). A psychiatrist examines fears of healing. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research, 56, 287-299.

Benor, D. (1992). Healing research-Research in healing (Vol. 1). Munich, Germany: Helix Edi- tions.

Bunnell, T. (1999). The effect of "healing with intent" on pepsin enzyme activity. Journal of Sci- entific Exploration, 13(2), 139-148.

Grad, B., Cadoret, R. J., & Paul, G. I. (1961). The influence of an unorthodox method of treatment on wound healing in mice. International Journal of Parapsychology, 3, 5-24.

Grad. B. (1965). Some biological effects of laying on of hands: A review of experiments with animals and plants. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 59, 95-1 27.

Grad, B. (1976). The biological effects of "laying on of hands" on animals and plants: Implica- tions for biology. In Schmeidler, Gertrude (Ed.), Parapsychology: Its relation to physics, biology, psychology and psychiatry (pp. 76-89). Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press.

Krieger, D. ( I 979). The therapeutic touch: How to use your hands to help or heal. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

Murphy, M. (1992). The future of the body: Explorations into the further evolution of human nature-Chapter 13. Los Angeles: Jeremy Tarcher.

Nash, C. (1982). Psychokinetic control of bacterial growth. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research, 51, 2 17-221.

Nash, C. (1984). Test of psychokinetic control of bacterial mutation. Journal of the American So- ciety for Psychical Research, 78, 145-1 52.

Null, G. ( 198 1 ). Healers or hustlers? Part 1V. SelfHelp Update, Spring. Onetto, B., & Elguin, G. (1966). Psychokinesis in experimental tumorigenesis. Journal of Para-

psychology, 30, 220. Palmer, J. (197 1). Scoring in ESP tests as a function of belief: The sheep-goat effect. Journal of

the American Society for Psychical Research, 65, 373-408. Schmeidler, G. (1945). Separating the sheep from the goats. Journal of the American Society for

Psychical Research, 39, 47-50. Schmeidler, G., & Murphy, G . (1946). The influence of belief and disbelief in ESP upon ESP scor-

ing level. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 36, 271-276. Smith, J. (1972). Paranormal effects on enzyme activity. Human Dimensions, 1, 15-19. Snel, F. (1980). PK influences on malignant cell growth. Research Letter No. 10, Parapsychology

Laboratory, University of Utrecht.

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 365-382,2000 0892-33 10100 0 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

The Stability of Assessments of Paranormal Connections in Reincarnation-Qpe Cases

Division of Personality Studies, Department of Psychiatric Medicine University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22908

e-mail: ips6r@ virginia.edu

Department of Psychology University of Tasmania, G.PO. Box 252-30, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Abstract-The phrase "case of the reincarnation type" refers to any child who has information and/or other characteristics that suggest a paranormal connection between himself and a particular person who has died before he was born. By a "paranormal connection," we mean the communication of information without the recognized sensory channels. Initially unintentionally, several cases previously studied by one of us (I.S.) were investigated by the other (J.K.) about 20 years after I.S.'s first investigation. Additional cases were then intentionally reinvestigated to test the stability of the paranormality assessments of 15 cases. All but one of the cases investigated 20 years later received the same or a lower paranormality rating. These results support the view that such case studies, even if carried out 2 decades after the relevant events occurred, do not generate inflated paranormality assessments.

Keywords: paranormal phenomena - reincarnation - memories

Introduction

For the last 40 years, investigators have been examining cases in which a child is said to remember a previous life. For most of the cases that were investigated by one of the authors (I.S.) (Stevenson, 1974) and later by Mills (1989), Pasricha (1 990), Haraldsson (1 99 I), and the other author (J.K.) (Keil, 199 I), interviews were conducted several years after the most important events had taken place. The "most important events" are nearly always ones that suggest the transmission of information without the usual sensory channels, i.e., paranormal processes. Some cases that seem important examples suggesting paranormal processes did not come to the attention of the above investigators until more than a decade had passed. The question must be asked whether in spite of such long intervals, relevant information remains sufficiently stable, or whether these case studies become significantly distorted, and in particular, whether informants, with the passage of time, tend to emphasize more heavily aspects of a case suggesting paranormal processes.

366 Ian Stevenson & Jiirgen Keil

In an attempt to answer this question, 4 cases in Thailand, 10 in Turkey, and 1 case in Myanmar were investigated after (on average) more than 20 years. The study developed initially from the accidental reinvestigation of some cases by J.K. that had already been studied by I.S. about 2 decades earlier. J.K. only became aware of this after he had more or less completed his investigations. He found that the informants did not seem to be influenced by the earlier investigations, and some of them mentioned only toward the end of the interviews that an American professor had conducted a similar study years earlier. We then decided to reinvestigate some further cases to compare the results of 15 cases.

It could be argued that we should be primarily concerned in this paper with the study of memory over time. However, many aspects of memory, although relevant to the comparison of paranormality assessments, cannot be readily evaluated. A full appraisal of the memories of informants for these cases would require a larger series of cases than we report here. Nevertheless, we will cite, in a later section of this paper, some of the relevant literature on long-term memory.

For cases of the reincarnation type, the paranormality components in the connection between a person who has previously died (the previous personality) and a child (the subject) is the most important aspect. Although for most case studies, the strength of these components is not directly assessed; it is almost always assumed that such components may be present. Otherwise, the case report would not really be relevant to the reincarnation hypothesis.

As will be outlined in the Discussion section, an objective rating scale for paranormality in these cases should be developed, but we have not done this yet. The rating scores reported here are based on our more subjective evalua- tions. By presenting in some detail half of the cases that were compared, we hope that readers can make their own assessments.

Memory Aspects

Although the main feature of this study is the stability of judgments about paranormal components of a case, we cannot isolate this question from the aspects of memory that are inevitably involved when informants report events that happened many years earlier.

It must be acknowledged that memories generally diminish over time. Bartlett (1932) also showed that informants may add new material without being aware of these changes. On the other hand, Prince (1 9 18, 19 19) reported two instances in which accounts of experiences written 15 and 20 years apart differed in only one detail. Similarly, Parsons (1962) found that a description of a building written 6 years after it was seen was correct in 18 out of 21 details.

Two studies of reports of experiences near death are directly pertinent to the question of the embellishment of reports with the passage of time. Greyson (1983) developed a scale for such experiences that indicates by increasing

Paranormality in Reincarnation Cases 367

scores the complexity-i.e., the amount of detail-in a report. He found no significant correlation between the score on the scale, indicating the complexity of the report, and the elapsed time between the experience and its report. Using data from a different series of near-death experiences, Alvarado and Zingrone (1 997198) also found no significant correlation between complexity of the report of an experience and the elapsed time between the experience and its report.

Vehicular accidents are often regarded as examples that show that the memories of several witnesses may differ substantially. However, vehicular accidents contain sequences of events that happen quickly and then end. Although our case studies may also include some dramatic sequences, such as when someone died in an accident or was killed intentionally, the events that were reported to us were already relatively settled and fixed in the minds of our informants before the first investigations were carried out. The memory aspects of our case studies are similar to what are termed "autobiographical memories." Baddeley (1998) reviewed the evidence for the accuracy of autobiographical memories and concluded that normal people can recall earlier events in their lives reasonably accurately over a long interval. Distortions and omissions can occur due to emotional factors and the perceived unpleas- antness of the events. Disagreements about the recollections of accidents- apart from distortions due to personal involvement-are probably often due to the relatively large number of relevant details, which are perceived during a short period.

Cases of the reincarnation type are not always regarded by the families involved as definite manifestations of rebirths of previous personalities. In this sense, they differ from the happenings associated with such definite events as marriages and funerals. Nevertheless, events associated with the assumed rebirth of a child are, in many cases, discussed by family members, friends, and more distant relatives quite frequently. An investigation of events that took place, say, 15 years ago does not usually involve obtaining information from people who have not talked about these events since they happened. Discus- sions of the events among family members will tend to enhance retention and accessibility of the informants' memories for them.

Method

For the first cases to be compared, J.K. had not seen I.S.'s notes before he conducted his own investigation. In the second phase of the project, I.S. fur- nished J.K. with the names and addresses of subjects whose cases he had investigated many years earlier. J.K. then went to the informants for these cases and, conducting new interviews, made records of what the informants then remembered about the cases. J.K. did not read I.S.'s notes before he made his investigations. He had perhaps read reports of some of I.S.'s cases that had been published, but he had retained in his conscious memory no details of these that influenced his investigations. When J.K. had completed his inquiries, we


compared the two accounts for the following differences: loss of essential details (in the J.K. reports compared to the I.S. ones), distorted accounts to J.K. of what were obviously the same events described earlier to I.S., and mention to J.K. of important details not told to I.S. We also noted reports of events to J.K. that differed in no essential detail from reports of the same events to I.S.

Because we were primarily interested in the stability of information relevant to the assessment of paranormal processes, J.K. concentrated on interviews. He did not extend his inquiries, as I.S. often did, to the study of relevant documents, such as hospital records and postmortem reports. As J.K. had learned in connection with other cases in Turkey, such records are nearly always discarded within a decade. In Thailand, termites frequently produce the same outcome.

Because of the relatively small number of cases and relatively large number of uncontrolled variables, we did not attempt to compare specific memory aspects. We tried to keep them in mind, however, when for each investigation we rated the strength of the paranormality component on a scale of 1 to 10. For these ratings, we assigned the descriptive values listed below to coordinate I.S.'s and J.K.'s assessments and to provide the reader with an illustration of how we judged the strength of each case. (However, comparisons between the earlier and later investigations could also be carried out with a different set of descriptive values.)

A rating of 1 means no suggestion of paranormal processes. A rating of 2 to 3 means there are indications that a paranormal component

may be involved, but the probability is equally high that the apparently paranormal features could be due to chance or other normal processes.

A rating of 4 to 7 indicates that paranormal processes increasingly out- weigh alternative explanations without reaching the equivalent of the .05 significance level.

A rating of 8 means the presence of a paranormal component is suggested as being equivalent to the .05 significance level.

A rating of 9 is similar to a rating of 8, but at the .O1 significance level. A rating of 10 is similar to 9, but at the .OO 1 significance level. In mentioning figures of probability, we do not mean to minimize the sub-

jectivity of our judgments about the element of paranormality in the cases. Moreover, it is not possible to list, in a kind of hierarchical order, conditions that would help to exclude normal communications. Nevertheless, the following conditions (taken from Keil, 199 1) are likely to strengthen a claim for the presence of paranormal aspects. In this list and elsewhere, the letter S stands for the subject, PP for the previous personality, and PL for the (claimed) previous life.

1. The S and the S's family do not know and have no contact with the PP's family until the S has made definite and potentially verifiable verbal statements.


2. The S makes numerous unambiguous statements, which are relatively independent of each other, about a PP and a PL that can be verified.

3. The S provides information about something not known to anybody- except, in the past, to the PP-that can be verified, such as some item hidden by the PP and recovered by the S.

4. Statements made by the S-preferably before the PP's family is involved-are noted by more than one member of the S's family and preferably by other people not belonging to the family.

5. Without any opportunity to learn or imitate, the S is able to do something that corresponds to some activity the PP was able to perform. For example, the S is able to speak a language or dialect that is not spoken by people with whom the S had contact.

6. Similar to (9, but the S has some opportunity to learn and imitate. Nev- ertheless, the S seems far more proficient than would normally be expected.

7. The S has birthmarks and/or malformations that correspond to injuries or other peculiarities of the PP. (Several birthmarks on the S that correspond to specific injuries sustained by the PP are more impressive than a single birthmark that corresponds imprecisely to a large injury on the PP.)

8. Unusual behavior, such as phobias or preferences of the S manifested at an early age, that do not make sense in terms of the S's experiences in his or her life, but that correspond to some important event in the PP's life or feature of the PP's character.

9. Although more difficult to evaluate, the intensity and spontaneity with which statements are made and emotions are expressed also have a bearing on the assessment.

This list could be extended. We can also integrate its items, to some extent, if we remember that there are two main criteria in operation on the basis of which we can assess paranormality. First, we need to appraise the number and the complexity of relatively independent statements and other characteristics that correspond to verifiable statements, features, and facts associated with the PP; a small number of statements based on fantasies could, by chance, agree with some aspects of the PP's life. In addition, we need to evaluate the barriers-geographical and social-that may have made it impossible or at least unlikely that seemingly paranormal connections between the PP and the S occurred by normal means.

For the relatively subjective evaluation of the reports, we had to take account of the following difficulties:

1. For several cases, J.K. could not interview the same informants who had provided information to I.S. Some of I.S.'s informants had died, some had moved and could not be contacted, and some could no longer remember anything related to the relevant events.


2. Additional information recorded by J.K. (compared with statements recorded by I.S.) may be due to (a) embellishments; (b) differences in the time available for an interview (the informants had the information but did not refer to it); (c) different informants; and (d) I.S. investigated the case when some children were still quite young. A child may have made additional statements after I.S.'s visit, and these may have included paranormal information.

A comparison of the two versions of the normal factual aspects of a case may provide some reassurance when similar sets of data were obtained. How- ever, minor discrepancies and/or omissions among these data are generally relatively unimportant unless they have a bearing on the paranormality assessment. For instance, if during J.K.'s interview, the informants could not remember the names of some relatives that were recorded by I.S., we did not regard this as a serious sign of instability unless the names were relevant to statements or events that suggested some paranormal process.

For most cases, we agreed on the paranormality ratings; if we disagreed- usually by 1 point on the scale-we discussed the reports until we reached agreement.

Principal Features of 15 Cases Selected for This Comparison

Of the 15 cases we compared, 10 were from Turkey, 4 from Thailand, and 1 from Myanmar (formerly Burma). Five of the subjects were female and 10 were male. There were no cases of the sex-change type in the group, i.e., cases in which the subject claimed to remember the life of a person of the opposite sex.

The I.S. cases were first investigated between 1966 and 1984 (median: 197 1). The J.K. cases were first investigated between 1990 and 1996 (median: 1995). In both groups, the "first investigation" was typically followed by further interviews in later years when we wished to interview additional informants or talk again with an earlier informant. The mean interval between the first investigations of I.S. and J.K. was 22 years, and the median interval was 23 years.

Particularly with I.S. and sometimes with J.K., the investigations continued for several years or even longer after the initial inquiries began an investigation. For example, I.S. began investigating the case of Bongkuch Promsin in 1966, but he had further interviews in the 1960s and 1970s, and he last met Bongkuch and his family in 1980. J.K. began his investigation of this case in 1995, only 15 years after I.S.'s last contact with the family. There was thus a much shorter interval for many cases between I.S.'s last contact with the case and J.K.'s first one. It remains true, however, that in most cases, I.S. obtained the substantial information about the case when he first met the families concerned.


TABLE Paranormality Scale Ratings

Rating of I.S. Rating of J.K. investigation investigation

Niirsel Karaali (Turkey) Cengiz Elma (Turkey) Zeynep Emel Celik (Turkey) Dellil Beyaz (Turkey) Semihe Atasoy (Turkey) Necati Caylak (Turkey) Nasir Toksoz (Turkey) Cemal Kurt (Turkey) Faris Yuyucuer (Turkey) Cemil Fahrici (Turkey) Ratana Wongsombat (Thailand) Bongkuch Promsin (Thailand) Anurak Sithipan (Thailand) Chanai Choomalaiwong (Thailand) Myint Myint Zaw (Myanmar)

Mean:

Note: I.S. = Ian Stevenson; J.K. = Jiirgen Keil.

Results

Summary

The Table lists the 15 cases we compared and gives the ratings on the paranormality scale for the data of the two investigations. The mean ratings (rounded) on the scale were 6.5 for the data of the I.S. investigation and 5.5 for those of the J.K. investigation.

In only one case did we assign a higher paranormality rating for the data of the J.K. investigation than for those of the I.S. investigation. This was the case of Anurak Sithipan. The informants mentioned to J.K. an incident in which Anurak showed paranormal knowledge of an object that had belonged to the PP in the case, his older deceased brother. They had not mentioned this item to I.S.

Eight Case ~ e ~ o r t s '

The Niirsel Karaali Case (Turkey). The subject, Niirsel, was regarded as the rebirth of the previous personality, Vesile Gorur. In 1970, I.S. obtained some preliminary information about this case from the PP's younger brother Cemil

Ian Stevenson has published detailed reports of his investigations of most of the cases reviewed here. For the benefit of readers wishing details of what he learned about these cases, we have given the references to his reports.

372 Ian Stevenson & Jurgen Keil

Goriir. In 1973, one of I.S.'s collaborators interviewed the PP's father, Cabir Goriir, and in 1 975, the S 's father, Siileyman Karaali. In 1 975, I. S. interviewed a musician, Hasan Eyup Demirel, as well as the S's mother, Vesile Karaali, and Nurse1 herself. In 1977, I.S. interviewed the PP's father, Cabir Gorur. The PP's mother was also present during this interview and volunteered some information.

The PP died at the age of 16 in 1962. The S was born in a different village in 1963. The two villages were 18 kilometers apart. The two families were not related and the parents of the S and the PP had no contacts. The S's grandfather, however, did know the PP's father from their military service.

When the S became able to speak, she told her father that he was not her father and that her father was in another village, which she named. She stated some names of other members of this family and threatened to run away if she were not taken to them.

In 1990, J.K. interviewed the S, her husband, and her mother, as well as two siblings of the PP.

I.S. and his Turkish collaborator obtained more details than J.K., but major events were presented in a very similar way in the 1970s and in 1990. Once contact was established between the families from the information the S provided, she continued to visit the PP's relatives. In 1990, she remembered that as a young child, she knew the names of the PP's relatives. (This had been included in I.S.'s notes.) In the meantime, the S had seen the PP's relatives so often that she knew their names because of these contacts.

Both I.S. and J.K. were told that at birth, the S's fingers were colored in agreement with the henna color that was applied to the PP's hands after the PP had died. I.S. was told that in about 1967 (at the age of 4%), the S recognized (in her village) some musicians who had played at the PP's funeral. This was not mentioned during the later study of J.K. In 1973 as well as 1990, I.S. and J.K. learned that the S had recognized the PP's old house. In 1977, I.S. was told that the S could correctly sort out the PP's clothes when mixed with other clothes. J.K. learned of this without substantial change in 1990. In 1990, J.K. was told that the S distinguished six of the PP's clothes from 40 other clothes not belonging to the PP but mixed with those that did. I.S. in 1977 had not been given figures such as these but was told only that the "S could distinguish perfectly the clothes of the PP from those of the other members of the family." Was the addition of numbers to the report an embellishment? We cannot say, but the addition, if such it is, does not alter the rating on the paranormality scale.

Nursel's correct statements as a young child before contact was established with the PP's relatives cannot be easily explained as normal information and fairly strongly suggest a paranormal connection between her and the PP. The assessments in this respect are similar for the earlier and later investigations. The earlier investigations managed to find more people and details that confirmed the suggested paranormal connections. In 1990, some details were


added; these may include some embellishments but may also be factual additions. One detail-the S's recognitions of the musicians from the PP's village-was lost. Generally, these differences did not have a bearing on the assessment of the paranormality component. We rated I.S.'s report as 8 and J.K.'s report as 7.

The Delliil Beyaz Case (Turkey). The subject, Delliil, was regarded as the rebirth of the previous personality, Zehide Kose (Stevenson, 1997). The S was born in 1970, within 1 month of the PP's death. She had a birthmark on the top of her head. When the S was born, there was a suggestion, based on a dream, that she might be a rebirth case, but there were no specific indications of this.

The S's mother told a collaborator of I.S. in 1975 that she had a dream connecting the S with the PP's village. However, during a second interview later in the same year, the S's mother denied that this dream referred to the PP's village. There was no other information in the dream that could link the S to the PP.

In 1975, I.S. interviewed the S, the S's mother, the S's grandmother, as well as the PP's husband, the PP's oldest daughter and her husband, and a nephew of the PP's husband. In 1983, a collaborator of I.S. returned once more to the S with some questions prepared by I.S.

In 1991 and 1992, J.K. interviewed the S and the S's mother. The PP's brother Mithat was also present in 199 1. During a further visit in 1994, J.K. interviewed the PP's daughter Nuriye Sen. Most of the information was collected in 1975 by I.S. and in 1991, by J.K.

I.S. did not receive any information that the S's relatives had any connections with the PP's relatives. J.K. heard later that the S's relatives had not met the PP, but they did know some of the PP's relatives. There was no contact between the two immediate families when the S was born.

Both I.S. and J.K. were told that the S had a birthmark on her head. They also both learned that the S had told her parents how she (the PP) died by falling through an opening from a flat roof while hanging out some washing. (The PP had died of "head injury," a fact relevant to the S's birthmark.) Simi- larly, informants told both of them that the S had correctly mentioned the name of the PP and the names of two or three of the PP's relatives and the name of the PP's village. The S's father probably knew the PP's village, but the S's mother claimed that she did not know the name of this village, which is probably correct.

The S conveyed most of the information related to the PP when she was less than 2 years old. She had started to talk about a previous life as soon as she had learned to talk.

The S's statements referring to the PP were correct, and a nephew of the PP, who was visiting a neighbor of the S's family, heard about her statements. This nephew, I.S. was told, arranged the first meeting between the two families when the S was about 2 years old. J.K. did not hear these details, but he was told that the PP's relatives heard that the S was talking about a previous life in


a way that suggested that she was referring to the PP. Both I.S. and J.K. were told that the S recognized various people and ob-

jects when she visited the PP's home for the first time. The details vary slightly, but J.K. could not interview the same relatives of the PP who had met I.S. There were no signs of embellishment in the more recent accounts of this case.

I.S. obtained medical records, which confirmed the death of the PP that informants had indicated to us, but the informants did not clearly link the S's birthmark with the PP's fatal fall. There was, however, agreement that the PP died from head injuries.

Although some connections existed prior to the S's birth, it seems unlikely that the information conveyed by the S prior to the first meeting of the two families could have come about by normal means. The various recognitions at a later stage carry some weight but are more doubtful indicators of paranormal processes.

We rated the paranormality component as 8 for I.S.'s accounts and 7 for J.K.'s.

The Semihe Atasoy Case (Turkey). The subject, Semihe, who was born in 1963, was regarded as the rebirth of the PP, Nesime Dogruel, who died in 1960 at the age of 35 (Stevenson, 1997). The two families are not related, but they were acquainted. They did not meet on a regular basis but occasionally ex- changed visits.

The PP's husband had shot and killed her. I.S. was told that the S's parents did not know this, and that they only became aware of the circumstances of the PP's death when the S started to talk at the age of 2. This means that for a period of approximately 5 years, the S's parents apparently were not aware that the PP had been killed by the PP's husband. Even if the S's parents met some other members of the PP's family only once or twice a year, it is surprising that they were not aware of the circumstances of the PP's death.

Both I.S. and J.K. heard that the S had two birthmarks, which agree with gunshot wounds of entry and exit on the PP. In fact, the PP was shot four times and a further birthmark on the S's elbow (only mentioned to I.S.) may correspond to the wound caused by a bullet.

With the help of an autopsy report (only available in 1977), I.S. carefully re- constructed the entry and exit marks on the PP's body. The entry position of two bullets and the exit position of one bullet seem to be in fairly good agreement with the S's birthmarks, but because the PP was hit by four bullets, the agreement may be due to chance. If one shot fired at the PP is regarded as a link that accounts for the S's birthmarks, the question must also be asked why only one bullet and not four resulted in corresponding birthmarks. Based on similar inconsistencies in connection with other cases, I.S. (1997) suggested that events prior to death, such as loss of consciousness by the PP after the first wounding, could explain why only some of the PP's wounds correspond to birthmarks on the S. Nevertheless, the limitations in the correspondence between the PP's wounds and the S's birthmarks must be regarded as a negative


feature when the overall probability of a paranormal component for this case is estimated.

I.S. visited this case for the first time in 1977. He interviewed the S and the S's parents. He also interviewed the PP's brother Salih.

In 1994, J.K. interviewed the S and her father. In 1996, he interviewed the S's mother, who was not present in 1994. The PP's brother Salih had died in 1993. The S still had contact with one of the PP's daughters, but this relationship then seemed fairly independent of the S's connection with a previous life. Nevertheless, the S told J.K. that she still had direct memories of being the PP. J.K. could not find any relatives or friends of the PP who might have been able to provide relevant information about the PP's life.

Both I.S. and J.K. heard that the PP was shot when the PP's husband returned home drunk. Only J.K. was told that the PP questioned the PP's husband about his late arrival home. I.S. was told that the PP was shot twice. Only one shot was mentioned to J.K.

Both I.S. and J.K. heard that the S had two birthmarks in agreement with the way the PP was shot. When I.S. visited the S in 1977, the birthmarks were still faintly visible. They were not visible in 1994. However, there was no doubt in 1994 (in the minds of the informants) that the S had had two birthmarks (corresponding to the entry and exit wounds of a bullet) when the S was young.

I.S. heard of another birthmark on the S's arm, which was not mentioned to J.K.

Both I.S. and J.K. were told that the S did not visit any of the PP's relatives until after the S had started to talk about a previous life. I.S. was told that when the S was 10 she met the PP's relatives for the first time. The account given to J.K. in 1994 was less definite and indirectly suggested that the S might have. met the PP's relatives at a younger age. In 1996, the S's mother also said that the S was 10 when this first meeting took place. (J.K. simply asked whether she could remember how old the S was when the S met the PP's relatives for the first time. Ten as a possible age was never mentioned by J.K.)

Both I.S. and J.K. were told that the two families are unrelated, that they met only occasionally, and that the connection between the PP and the S was only discovered when the S started to talk about the PP.

The reports, mainly obtained 17 years apart, are in good agreement. For this case, it is difficult to estimate a paranormality rating on our scale. The birthmarks do not exactly correspond to only one bullet entry and exit. Although the S's parents did not regard the S as a rebirth case until the S started to talk about a previous life, the two families had had some contacts. The news of the PP's murder may have reached the S even if the S's parents were not aware of it. On the other hand, the S had referred to these events at a very young age. We estimate that a rating of 5 is appropriate for both reports.

The Necati Caylak Case (Turkey). The subject, Necati, was regarded as the rebirth of the PP, Abdiilkerim Hadduroglu (Stevenson, 1980). The two families, who lived 8 kilometers apart in different villages, are not related and did


not know each other until the S started to talk about a previous life. The PP died in 1963 in a car accident. The S was born about 1 month later

according to the information that I.S. obtained. In 1995, J.K. was told that the S was born in 1965. In 1995, when J.K. studied the case, the S was away, working in Saudi Arabia. His relatives (J.K.'s informants) probably only estimated his year of birth. In Turkey, many families do not attach much importance to birthdays and the age of a person is not regarded as important information. I.S. met the S for the first time in 1967, and this meeting confirmed that the S was born around 1963, and not in 1965.

I.S. visited relevant informants in 1967, 197 1, and twice in 1973. He interviewed the S, the S's parents, and two of the S's older brothers, as well as the PP's wife, the PP's father, the PP's stepmother, two of the PP's sons, five friends and neighbors of the PP (some of them distantly related to the PP), and the driver of the car in which the PP died.

In 1995, J.K. interviewed the S's mother and two brothers of the S, Ekrem and Mehmet. Ekrem, who provided most of the information, had also been interviewed by I.S. As mentioned, the S himself was working in Saudi Arabia. In addition, J.K. interviewed the PP's youngest son (also an informant during I.S.'s visits), and the PP's sister Kadife.

Both I.S. and J.K. were told that the PP was killed in a car accident at a bridge and that the S talked about this accident, giving correct details, when he was less than 3 years old. Both heard that the S was afraid of the bridge and refused to go near it. When the S came to this bridge for the first time, he also mentioned a number of names including the PP's first name. I.S. heard more details than J.K., which generally strengthened the paranormality hypothesis of this case. However, I.S. also became aware of several inconsistencies that could only be partly resolved through further investigations. Apparently, the S mentioned a wrong family name for the PP. The wrong name may have had some relevance but could not directly be associated with the PP. J.K. was only told that the S mentioned the names of the PP's father, mother, and wife.

The two accounts agree with each other, but I.S. obtained many more details supporting a paranormality component. The 1995 report contained no embellishments. The informants failed to mention to J.K. that the S had got the family name of the PP wrong, but most Turks would be satisfied with the S's correct statement of the names of members of the PP's family.

In 1995, J.K. recorded a different name for the driver of the car in which the PP died. It is not clear whether J.K.'s informants referred to an alternative name (a distinct possibility in Turkey), whether the same person was remembered as the driver but referred to by a wrong name, or whether in 1995, a different person was regarded as the driver. This difference between the two reports has no bearing on the assessment of the paranormality component.

The evidence for this component is fairly strong in I.S.'s report because of the many details and because the two families did not know each other. It is likely, though, that some of the details related to the accident were generally


known in both villages. Nevertheless, a paranormality rating of 7.5 for I.S.'s report and 5 for J.K.'s report seems appropriate.

The Cemil Fahrici Case (Turkey). The subject, Cemil Fahrici, was regarded as the rebirth of the PP, Cemil Hayik (Stevenson, 1997). He was a well-known outlaw in the Samande, Hatay, region of Turkey. The PP died in 1935. The S was born about 2 or 3 days after the PP's death.

The S's verbal account of the PP's life and death is interesting and may contain paranormal elements, but because these events were publicly known, the S may have heard about the PP's life by normal means. The late investigation of this case makes a more detailed assessment of verbal statements with respect to the paranormality hypothesis virtually impossible. When in 1966 I.S. saw the S for the first time, the S was already more than 30 years old. J.K. saw the S 26 years later, in 1994.

Nevertheless, the case has some noteworthy features that suggest some degree of paranormality. The S has two birthmarks on his head that correspond to an entry and exit wound of a bullet. These marks appear to be in agreement with what is known about the death of the PP. (The PP shot himself by firing a bullet through his head when he could not escape from the police.)

As a child, the S rejected his own name and indicated that he wanted to be called Cemil. The S's parents eventually agreed. The S was afraid of soldiers and policemen and was hostile toward them. As a young child, he pretended to shoot them with a stick. This behavior could also have been encouraged because of some general resentment toward soldiers and policemen, which was not uncommon at that time in the Hatay region of Turkey.

Of the 10 informants interviewed by I.S., J.K. could only contact three. Most and perhaps all other informants had died in the meantime. One of these three, the S's sister, had recently lost her son and was too disturbed by this to answer questions.

J.K. was able to interview the S and the PP's younger sister. (I.S. had also met this sister of the PP.) She mentioned a few details to J.K. that I.S. had not recorded. Generally, J.K. did not hear as many details as I.S., but J.K. had only two informants. None of the additional details recorded by I.S. or J.K. had any bearing on the paranormality hypothesis.

The S's birthmarks, the S's desire as a very young child to be called "Cemil," and the S's reaction to policemen and soldiers were still remembered when J.K. visited the S and the PP's sister in 1994. It seems fair to conclude that the basis for the paranormality assessment did not change after 17 years.

The S's birthmarks had faded to some extent-which frequently happens- and were less clearly visible when J.K. investigated the case. For this reason, it could be argued that J.K.'s rating should be marginally lower. We agree that if any change is contemplated, it should be in the direction of a slightly lower rating for the more recent report.

On the paranormality scale, we rated this case-mainly on the basis of the S's birthmarks-as 7 for the records of I.S. and 6 for those of J.K..


The Ratana Wongsombat Case (Thailand). The subject, Ratana, was regarded as the reincarnation of the PP, Kim Lan (Stevenson, 1983).

Kim Lan died in September 1962, at the age of 68. The S was born in May 1964. She started to talk at a very early age, and her apparently accurate memories about some aspects of the PP's life were reported in a Bangkok newspa- per in 1967 when the S was 3 years old.

I.S. mainly studied this case in 1969, but he visited Ratana again during six further visits to Thailand, the last one occurring in 1980. J.K. studied this case in 1995.

The S was raised (from soon after her birth) by her grandmother and step- grandfather. The latter was particularly interested in Ratana's statements about a previous life. The S's family did not know the PP at all, but the S's step-grandfather knew a few people who previously had some contact with the PP when the PP visited a particular Wat (Buddhist temple) in Bangkok. How- ever, the S's step-grandfather initially was not aware of this connection.

I.S. interviewed 13 people including the S, the PP's daughter, Anan, and a nun from the Wat in Bangkok. J.K. also met another nun and a monk who had some limited contact with the PP but who had not been interviewed by I.S.

The S's grandmother and the S's step-grandfather had died by 1995. It is likely that some of the other informants interviewed by I.S. had also died by then. Except for the S, J.K.'s other four informants were between 76 and 84 years old.

The information provided by the S-when she was a young child-supports the paranormality hypothesis mainly because her family did not know the PP or the PP's relatives, and because the S gave many correct details, including the PP's name when the S was only 2 years old.

In 1995, the S herself had no direct memories of the life of the PP, but remembered various details she had later heard from others, including some details that she had mentioned at a very young age. This is not at all unusual in these cases.

There are no significant disagreements between the data collected by I.S. and J.K., but between one third and one half of the details was lost when J.K. studied this case. J.K.'s notes do not suggest any additional details that could be regarded as embellishments.

Although a reduction of the reported details might be expected because of the advanced age of four of J.K.'s five informants, the paranormality assessment based on the more recent interviews must be rated somewhat lower. On the scale, we rated I.S.'s account as 8 and J.K.'s account as 7.

The Anurak Sithipan Case (Thailand). In some areas of Thailand, as well as in Myanmar and parts of India, bodies are sometimes marked, usually shortly after death, but occasionally also before a person is pronounced dead, in order to enable the relatives to recognize a child with a similar birthmark as being the deceased reborn. Although this custom is generally known in areas where


such "experimental birthmarks" (Stevenson, 1997) agree by chance with the original marks. The present case provides an example of this practice.

The subject, Anurak, was regarded as the reincarnation of his older brother Chachewan, who had drowned about 3 years before Anurak was born (Steven- son, 1997). Chachewan's body had been marked on the right elbow with char- coal. One informant said the mark was made with ink.

There is good agreement between the notes obtained by I.S. in 1977 and those obtained by J.K. in 1994. The two reports agree that the PP's arm was marked near his elbow and that the S was born with a birthmark on the same elbow close to the site where the PP had been marked. On both occasions, the S's relatives claimed that other members of the S's family had no birthmarks like that of the S. According to I.S.'s examination, this is not quite correct, and we therefore have an example of increased emphasis on the birthmarks of the S and a tendency to ignore smaller birthmarks on other siblings. However, these errors were similar on both occasions. The informants for I.S. spontaneously mentioned that the S's birthmark was not exactly in the same position as the mark made on the PP. J.K. was not told of this discrepancy and this could be seen as an unconscious tendency to support the interpretation of reincarnation. On the other hand, after 17 years, the S's parents may have forgotten the small difference in location or may have thought that it was of no further importance.

The two reports agree that the S spontaneously searched for the PP's Boy Scout uniform. The more recent statement about this detail provides a somewhat more elaborate framework but does not really add any information that would increase the strength of the paranormality component.

There is also agreement about the S's familiarity with the PP's friend who came for a date with the S's sister. The earlier report included more details that could easily have been forgotten after 17 years.

The more recent report includes one more incident reported by the S's parents: The S found a special spoon, which the PP had kept on a high shelf in a generally inaccessible place. This incident supports the paranormality component, and it could be argued that in some way, this incident was later invented to provide more support for the reincarnation hypothesis. However, if this incident is considered, together with other statements made by our informants, it seems more likely that the S really behaved in the way his parents reported, and that for some reason, this incident was forgotten or not mentioned when I.S. visited 17 years earlier.

Although there are some differences in the records with respect to those events that have a bearing on the paranormality component, we do not regard them as significant. The strength of the paranormality component is broadly similar for the 1977 and 1994 investigations.

We agreed that for this case, the paranormality rating for the more recent re- I port should be at least as high as that for the earlier one and possibly higher.

We agreed on a rating of 5 for I.S.'s report and a rating of 5.5 for J.K.'s report.


The Bongkuch Promsin Case (Thailand). Bongkuch, the subject, was regarded as the rebirth of the PP, Chamrat, who died in 1954, at the age of 18 (Stevenson, 1983). The PP had been attacked from the back, stabbed, and killed. The two families were not related and did not know each other. The PP's relatives had never visited the S's village. The S's father had traveled to the small town where the PP lived. He knew some people there, but not the PP or the PP's relatives, and after the PP was killed, the S's father did not hear anything about the murder. Contact between the two families was established only after the S had started to talk and had made a number of statements about the PP. The PP's relatives then learned about these statements.

I.S. carried out a very detailed investigation (mainly in 1966) and interviewed 17 people including the S, the S's parents, 2 sisters of the S, the PP's father, the PP's sister, the PP's stepbrother, the PP's girlfriend, as well as 3 police officers associated with the investigation of the PP's murder.

When J.K. investigated this case in 1995, the PP's parents and the S's father had died. J.K. interviewed the PP's half-brother Muan, the younger brother of the PP's mother, the S, the S's mother, and the S's sister Chorthip. I.S. had obtained a much more detailed record of the events, but both he and J.K. found that the first contact phase between the two families suggested a paranormal component. The S had made a number of statements. He mentioned the PP's name, possessions of the PP, such as a bicycle and a gold chain, and how PP had been killed. The PP's relatives confirmed these statements during their first meeting with S. They conducted a "test" by presenting the S with-according to I.S.'s notes-two bicycles or-according to J.K.'s notes-three bicycles, from which the S selected the PP's bicycle correctly. The increase from 2 bicycles to 3 most likely is an embellishment and not a simple error.

Both I.S. and J.K. heard that the S used Laotian words not used in the S's family and preferred sticky rice (a distinctly different rice preparation) in agreement with the PP's background, which was Laotian and not Thai. I.S. recorded additional details relevant to the paranormality assessment of this case. For example, his informants told him that the S remembered the names of eight people from the previous life and that he had referred to the PP's watch, gold ring, and knife, and to the way the PP was dressed when he was killed. There was some disagreement among the three police officers about whether the S's statement that the PP wore shorts was correct. There is also less certainty about whether such statements as the names of eight people were made before the S could have heard some of them. Nevertheless, some of the information obtained only by I.S. strengthens the paranormality assessment.

J.K. was told that the S had a birthmark on his neck apparently in agreement with the way the PP was stabbed. It is unlikely that this is a later invention without any factual basis. On the other hand, I.S. had inquired about birthmarks and had not received any information that the S had any birthmarks. It is possible that the S's birthmark had faded-assuming that the S indeed had a birthmark-and that this was conveyed to I.S. in such a way that I.S. assumed


that the S never had one. Nevertheless, the later statement about the birthmark strengthens the paranormality assessment of J.K.'s report. However, based on the larger number of details recorded by I.S. that support the paranormality component, we rated the I.S. report as 8 and the J.K. report as 7.5.

Discussion

The results show no evidence that information obtained about these cases produce higher paranormality assessments over time. Some new details were added, but generally, more details were lost.

Embellishments may be recognized if the paranormal components of a particular event are more strongly emphasized in later versions. Only sporadic additions or possible embellishments occurred, and most of these additions were probably of actual events that had not been mentioned during the earlier investigations or occurred afterward.

The Anurak Sithipan case, with a slightly higher rating for the J.K. report, is probably such an example. Both parents of Anurak mentioned to J.K., but not to I.S., that as a young child, Anurak found a special spoon that the PP had placed on a high shelf and that Anurak apparently found without prior information or access to the place in which it was kept. It seems unlikely that this incident was invented. On the other hand, it apparently occurred before I.S. investigated the case.

We must also acknowledge that the lower ratings for the J.K. reports may be partly due to J.K.'s more limited investigations. For instance, in one case, a birthmark, which had already faded when I.S. investigated this case, was not even mentioned to J.K. J.K.'s informants might still have remembered the details about this birthmark if J.K. had asked specific questions.

Nevertheless, the results present a practical reassurance that if relevant informants can be found, events in connection with reincarnation-type cases are remembered with reasonable accuracy after many years and the paranormality assessments are only rarely inflated over time. We think this conclusion war- ranted for cases in Turkey. Our series contains too few cases from Thailand and Myanmar to justify any generalization about cases in those countries.

If investigators of these cases in the future wish to adopt something like a "paranormality rating scale," we recommend that they aim at greater objectivity in making the ratings than we were able to achieve in the present comparison. We think it is possible to provide a scale with specific points awarded for some of the features we described in the Method section of this paper (Keil, 199 1).

Acknowledgments

The research of the Division of Personality Studies is supported by The Bernstein Brothers Foundation, The Nagamasa Azuma Fund, The Japan-U.S. Fund for Health Sciences, The Lifebridge Foundation, and Richard Adams.

We are grateful to J. Tucker and Patricia Estes for reading and offering com-


ments on earlier versions of this paper. Thanks are also due to Dawn Hunt for other assistance. The comments of an anonymous referee have helped us to improve the clarity of our presentation in several places. We also wish to extend our thanks to our informants. Many of them responded to two sets of inquiries about the same events; we are grateful for their patient cooperation.

References

Alvarado, C. S., & Zingrone, N. L. (1997198). Factors related to the depth of near-death experiences: Testing the "embellishment over time" hypothesis. Imagination, Cognition and Person- ality, 17, 339-344.

Baddeley, A. D. (1998). Human memory: Theory andpractice. London: Allyn and Bacon. Bartlett, F. C. (1 932). Remembering: A study of experimental and socialpsychology. Cambridge,

UK: Cambridge University Press. Greyson, B. (1 983). The near-death experience scale: Construction, reliability, and validity. Jour-

nal ofNewous and Mental Disease, 171,369-375. Haraldsson, E. (1991). Children claiming past-life memories: Four cases in Sri Lanka. Journal of

Scientzjlc Exploration, 5, 233-261. Keil, J. (1991). New cases in Burma, Thailand, and Turkey: A limited field study replication of

some aspects of Ian Stevenson's research. Journal of Scientijc Exploration, 5,27-59. Mills, A. (1989). A replication study: Three cases of children in Northern India who are said to re-

member a previous life. Journal of Scientijc Exploration, 3, 133-1 84. Parsons, D. (1962). A nonexistent building located. Journal of the Society for Psychical Re-

search, 41,292. Pasricha, S. (1990). Claims of reincarnation: An empirical study of cases in India. N e w Delhi:

Harman Publishing House. Prince, W. F. (1918). Experiences of Augustine Jones. Journal of the American Society for Psy-

chical Research, 12,7 18. Prince, W. F. (1919). Some coincidental dreams. Journal of the American Society for Psychical

Research, 13, 6 1. Stevenson, I. (1974). Twenty cases suggestive of reincarnation (Rev. ed.). Charlottesville: Uni-

versity Press of Virginia. Stevenson, I. (1980). Cases of the reincarnation type. Vol. 3, twelve cases in Lebanon and Turkey.

Charlottesville: University Press of Virginia. Stevenson, I. (1983). Cases of the reincarnation type. Vol. 4, Twelve cases in Thailand and

Burma. Charlottesville: University Press of Virginia. Stevenson, I. (1997). Reincarnation and biology: A contribution to the etiology of birthmarks and

birth defects (Vols. 1-2). Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers.

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 383-409,2000 0892-33 10lOO O 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

ArtREG: A Random Event Experiment Utilizing Picture-Preference Feedback

Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544

Abstract-An experiment addressing anomalous humanlmachine interactions utilizing a feedback display of two competing pictures, the relative dominance of which is controlled by a microelectronic random generator, has yielded a number of equivocal results. On the one hand, an ingoing hypothesis that such a visually engaging mode of feedback might facilitate larger anomalous effects has not been supported by the composite results of 49 operators performing some 390,000 experimental trials. Likewise, a smaller ad hoc study of the relative efficacy of a subset of target pictures having religious or spiritual themes, although yielding effect sizes comparable with earlier random event generator (REG) data, has insufficient statistical power to resolve the question. Also, an attempt to assess the relative importance of the pictorial feedback, vis-a-vis the output of the REG, per se, in facilitating operator performance has not been definitive. Yet, certain secondary anomalies in these databases, such as gender disparities, individual operator performances, and serial position effects, show several characteristics akin to those previously found in other humanlmachine experiments in this laboratory. Whether these indicators can be used to develop more effective experiments of this class or to achieve a more fundamental understanding of the basic phenomena is the focus of ongoing research.

Keywords: random event generator (REG) - random event experiments - humanlmachine anomalies - visually engaging feedback

Introduction

Two decades of rigorous empirical study of the interaction of human operators with microelectronic random event generators (REGS) in this laboratory have consistently yielded small but statistically significant anomalous departures from chance behavior that correlate with the prestated intentions of the operators (Jahn et al., 1997). These effects, however, have proven remarkably in- sensitive to any of the attendant physical parameters so far explored, such as data set sizes and acquisition rates, nature of the random physical sources, and spatial and temporal separations of the operators from the functioning equipment (Nelson et al., 1999). What secondary correlations have been observed tend to be of a more subjective nature, relating to the individual operator gen- ders, preferences, strategies, reactions to the feedback, and feelings of resonance with the devices. In an effort to exploit these intangible correlates to

384 R. G. Jahn et al.

yield larger anomalous effect sizes, a group of related experiments have been designed and implemented wherein the feedback provided the operators, and in some cases the random physical processes themselves, have more aestheti- cally engaging visual or auditory properties than the standard REG experiments. Examples include a large crystal pendulum, a bubbling water fountain, a randomly impacted Native American drum, a mobile robot, and, in the study reported here, a display of two competing pictures superimposed on a CRT screen. It was hypothesized that experiments that offered such aesthetic ap- peal to the operators would enhance their sense of resonance with them, and thereby enable larger deviations from chance behaviors.

Experimental Design, Protocol, and Analysis

In this article, we shall review the results of several years of experimentation with a target device termed "ArtREG," wherein two attractive pictures compete for dominance on a CRT screen. To achieve this presentation, the screen is illuminated by a field of 640 x 480 = 307,200 pixels, each of which may correspond to either of the competing illustrations, which are drawn from a library of 24 arbitrarily selected paintings, photographs, and designs previously scanned and digitized (Appendix A). The relative fraction of pixels corresponding to each of the two pictures is controlled by a small REG unit based on microelectronic Johnson noise (Nelson, Bradish, and Dobyns, 1992), in accordance with a software recipe that uses the cumulative deviation of the REG digital output from the chance mean. More specifically, the REG output is collected in trials of 200 sample bits, and the compounding difference of the trial- mean values from 100 is used to determine the fraction of pixels illuminated by each picture, as described more fully below.

The formal experimental protocol, which evolved over a period of informal preliminary experimentation (Appendix B), calls for the operator to examine the library of available pictures and select two for the competition. At the start of each experimental run, these appear superimposed on the screen in equal prominence, after which the balance evolves in accordance with the progress of the REG output. The goal of the operator is to bring one of the pictures into full or at least partial dominance, in accordance with a prerecorded intention. (In one popular variant, the operator may choose only one picture, to compete with a multicolored random pixel illumination, so that the chosen image appears to be sharpening from, or diffusing into, a random noise background.) When saturation by either picture occurs, or if 250 trials have been compounded without saturation, the run is terminated, the results are recorded, and a subsequent run is initiated using the same or the opposite picture preference. Runs are generated until 2,000 trials (400,000 bits) have been accumulated, comprising one experimental series, or session. Operators are constrained to use the same pair of pictures throughout a given session, but the picture preference is optional for each run.

In an effort to focus the operators' attention solely on the visual display,

ArtREG: A Random Event Experiment 385

rather than on the REG output per se, a pseudorandom algorithm determines whether the emergence of the preferred picture on any given run will be associated with higher or lower deviations of the REG output from its chance expectancy of 100. Because this assignment is not revealed to the operators, they remain blind to the directional criterion that determines the success or failure of a desired run outcome. In this sense, ArtREG protocol differs substantially from that of standard REG experiments, where the feedback presented to the operator directly reflects success or failure in achieving the desired intention to produce higher or lower electronic counts. By keeping the assignment blind in the ArtREG experiment, it was hoped to determine whether the visual feedback or a more direct coupling of the operator's intention to the REG process itself was the more important factor in enabling operator performance.

Data thus are processed under two complementary criteria: success on chosen pictures and success on high or low deviations of the REG trial means. Be- cause the algorithm determining high or low assignment ensures that each series contains equal numbers of trials (1,000) associated with each direction, the highllow analysis in ArtREG is directly comparable to that employed in the benchmark REG experiments, even though in this case the data are produced under "double-blind" conditions. Several other possible correlations also are explored in the data assessments, e.g., the effectiveness of particular pictures or picture combinations, run-level versus series-level success, and operator gender disparities.

Results

The formal ArtREG database consists of 195 series, or sessions, comprising 390,000 trials, generated by 49 volunteer operators: 21 males (98 series) and 28 females (97 series). Their results are summarized in Tables 1 through 4, which show the number of completed series (Ns); the number of "successful" series (Ss) where the average results were consistent with intention; the total number of runs (NR); the number of successful runs (SR); and the overall mean shift (p), standard error (o), and Z score for each operator. As displayed in the first column of Table 1, of the total of 3,597 runs, 1,798 were partially or completely successful and 1,799 were not. Using a theoretical standard deviation for the binary expectation of success, o = (.25lV)ll2 = 29.987, yields a totally insignificant bottom-line Z score of -0.0 167. The next four columns display the correlations of successes with the high and low REG drivers of the preferred pictures and with the gender of the operators. The last four columns further subdivide the results into high-driven and low-driven runs by males and females, respectively. Clearly, none of these sets or subsets displays any anomalous statistical character at this level, with the possible exception of the marginal disparity between male and female results on the low-driven pictures (Zdiff = 1.687), which probably can be discounted on multiple-test grounds.

Operator-specific representations of the results are presented in Tables 2 and 3 in the form of individual male and female achievements on complete ex-


TABLE 1 Overall Run Score Summaries

MRL+ Subset NR SR NR - SR Z-score* (Suc.lTot.)

All Male Female High Low HighM LowM HighF LowF

NR = number of runs SR = number of successful runs NR - SR = number of unsuccessful runs *Z = (2SR - N ~ ) / [ ( N ~ ) " ~ ] +MRL = mean run lengths (0-250 trials).

perimental series, again segregated in terms of high-driven versus low-driven trials. At the bottom of each table are listed the sums of values over the operators and the corresponding probabilities that the distributions are chance. Also included are the aggregate totals of series performance by the operators. Table 4 compounds the x2 and series performance results over all operators. Again, there appears to be little of statistical interest in any of these composite indicators, but despite the overall low yield of the total database, more detailed examination reveals a few potentially instructive features. For example, 11% of the database consists of single series generated by 45% of the operators. Seventeen of these single-series databases, or 74%, yield positive results in the combined high-low data (2 = 2.558).

As an alternative representation of the individual operator data, Figure 1 displays the fraction of successful runs achieved by each as a function of database size, in units of ( N ~ ) " ~ , on which are superimposed the loci of one standard error confidence limits. The use of different symbols for female and male operators helps to illustrate the gender differences appearing in these data. Figure 2 is a similar representation in terms of individual operator effect sizes, in units of Z score per series.

Correlation of operator success with particular pictures is somewhat complicated by their use in pairs; that is, while one might endeavor to search for a relative picture-effectiveness distribution that compounds uniformly over all competing pictures, because these are selected at will by the operators, the full competition matrix is far from uniformly populated. Nonetheless, some indications can be extracted. Table 5 lists the overall success ratios for each of the 24 illustrations (displayed in Appendix A) when used as the preferred target,


regardless of its competitors. Listed are the ratios of successful runs (SIN) achieved using the picture as a preferred target, along with the corresponding Z scores, for all operators, men alone, and women alone. Also listed in the composite portion of the table are the number of successful runs that saturated compared to the total number that saturated (Sat.), and the average number of trials per run for the successful runs, compared to the average number for all runs (tsltt). Once again, the bottom-line results are indistinguishable from chance, as are the X2 goodness-of-fit tests. Figure 3 illustrates the relative successes of the pictures in graphical form.

Table 6 and Figure 4 display lists of the operator achievements under the modified protocol that uses the random noise pattern, rather than a second illustration, as the competitor to the chosen picture. Clearly, there is no indication that this modality is any more effective than the two-picture version in enabling the intended anomalous achievements.

Ad Hoc Experiments

In an admittedly a posteriori effort to explore possible causes of the apparent failure of this experimental concept, it was noted that a particular subset of the target pictures seemed to facilitate disproportionately good performances. These images could crudely be subsumed within a category of religious, mystical, or symbolic patterns, labeled as follows: (1) Anubis; (2) Apache; (3) Wave; (7) Mask; (8) Bear; (9) India; and (1 1) Egypt. Specifically, this subset yielded 521 successful runs out of 961 (54.2%), with a corresponding Z score of 2.6 13. A similar correlation was found within the single picture versus random background efforts within this group: 134 successes out of 244 (54.9%), Z = 1.536. A subsequent ad hoc experiment was undertaken using only these seven pictures plus the random background option, within a short-form protocol that permitted more rapid accumulation of data. Specifically, all runs were forced to have equal numbers of trials (loo), with only four runs comprising a session, and full saturation was precluded by a progressive difficulty algorithm in the software (i.e., by using a difficulty criterion, d, up to M pixel saturation, a difficulty criterion of 2d over the saturation interval M to %, 4d over the saturation interval % to 76 etc.). Thus, highly successful runs could be sustained near saturation without premature termination of the run. To conserve laboratory and operator time, only 100 series (400 runs) were planned, the minimum deemed necessary to distinguish this subset from the main database.

Despite all these changes in experimental design, the composite results of this phase, as summarized in Tables 7-9 and Figure 5, again were statistically insignificant. Specifically, only 200 runs out of 404 were successful (Z =

-0.1990); the all-operator performance compounded only to ZA = 0.5305; four of the eight selected pictures now scored below the chance mean; and the X2 on both the operator and picture distributions were within chance. On the other hand, it is worth noting that the ZA seems to correspond to an absolute ef-

R. G. Jahn et al.

TABLE 2 Male Operator Results

14 3 High 1 2 7 13 -. 1000 Low 2 22 12 .0483 A 2 49 25

21 4 High 1 36 14 -. 1530 Low 3 39 2 0 .0120 A 1 75 3 4

41 4 High 1 37 16 -. 1065 .I118 -0.9526 LOW 2 38 20 -.0063 .I118 -0.0559 A 1 7 5 36 -0.7131

56 3 High 2 2 5 14 .0833 .I291 0.6455 Low 2 2 6 14 .06 17 .I291 0.4777 A 2 5 1 2 8 0.7942

65 4 High 1 3 1 18 .0423 .I118 0.3779 ~ LOW 2 45 2 1 -.0400 .I118 -0.3578 A 3 76 39 0.0142

84 5 High 1 47 2 1 -.0962 .lo00 -0.9620 Low 0 4 8 19 -. 1892 .lo00 -1.8920(*) A 1 9 5 40 -2.0181(*)

184 1 High 0 10 5 -.0400 .2236 -0.1789 Low 1 7 4 .0410 .2236 0.1834 A 1 17 9 0.0032

187 15 High 9 143 7 5 .0452 .0577 0.7829 LOW 4 135 59 -.0589 .0577 -1.0196 A 8 278 134 -0.1 674

307 14 High 7 122 5 9 -.0137 .0598 -0.2295 Low 9 140 74 .0394 .0598 0.6598 A 9 262 133 0.3043

317 1 High 0 9 4 -. 1540 .2236 -0.6887 Low 1 7 5 .3210 .2236 1.4356 A 1 16 9 0.528 1

320 8 High 3 7 5 36 -.0283 .0791 -0.3573 Low 1 8 0 2 9 -. 1872 .0791 -2.3685(*) A 3 155 65 -1.9275(*)

321 1 High 1 9 8 .4520 .2236 2.0214* Low 1 6 4 .I560 .2236 0.6977 A 1 15 12 1.9227*

402 1 High 1 11 8 ,2700 .2236 1.2075 LOW 0 10 5 -.0320 .2236 -0.143 1 A 1 2 1 13 0.7526

405 1 High 1 9 5 .0850 .2236 0.3801 LOW 0 7 2 -.2000 .2236 -0.8944 A 0 16 7 -0.3637

409 5 High 2 47 24 .0088 .lo00 0.0880 Low 2 47 24 .0134 .lo00 0.1340 A 3 94 4 8 0.1570

1 ArtREG: A Random Event Experiment 389

TABLE 2 Continued

422 3 High 2 25 15 .0403 .I291 0.3 124 LOW 1 33 15 -.06 17 .I291 -0.4777 A 1 58 30 -0.1168 ' 501 7 High 3 62 3 4 .0466 .0845 0.55 10 LOW 3 63 30 -.O 199 .0845 -0.2350 A 4 125 64 0.2235

507 10 High 4 8 9 42 -.0667 .0707 -0.9433 Low 6 8 7 44 .0146 .0707 0.2065

~ A 7 176 8 6 -0.5210

509 3 High 2 28 19 .2430 .I291 1.8823 * LOW 2 2 7 12 -.0603 .I29 1 -0.4673 A 2 55 3 1 1.0005

1 515 4 High 1 33 12 -.0990 .I118 -0.8855 LOW 1 3 4 16 -.0155 .I118 -0.1386

I A 1 67 28 -0.7242

599 1 High 1 10 6 .3380 .2236 1.5116 LOW 0 6 2 -. 1230 .2236 -0.5501 A 1 16 8 0.6799

All 98 High 44 885 448 -.0003 .0226 -0.0145 LOW 43 907 43 1 -.0283 .0226 -1.2527 A 53 1792 879 -0.8960

I Chi-squared tests:

High 19.764 0.537 Low 15.461 0.799 A 16.945 0.714

Individual operator overall success patterns:

Nop. H/L Z > 0.00 (P I < .5) Z > 1.645 (P I < .05) Z < 1.645 ( P I > .95)

2 1 High 11 2 Low 9 0 A 11 1

Note: Op. = operator; Ns= number of series; H/L = high or low random-event-generator driver; Ss = number of successful series; NR = number of runs; SR = number of successful runs; p = trial mean shift; o = standard error; Z= Z score = p/o; N op. = number of operators; PE = chance expectation.

Significant at P < .05. (*I Significant at P > .95.

R. G. Jahn et al.

TABLE 3 Female Operator Results

Op. Ns H/L Ss NR SR P CF Z

3 1 High Low A

10 17 High Low A

16 8 High Low A

17 10 High Low A

53 1 High Low A

159 1 High Low A

173 3 High Low A

327 1 High Low A

345 1 High Low A

350 1 High Low A

363 1 High Low A

401 1 High Low A

403 1 High Low A

406 2 High Low A

500 1 High Low A

ArtREG: A Random Event Experiment

TABLE 3 Continued

5 02

503

5 04

506

5 10

5 14

543

609

623

707

709

8 13

830

All

6 High 3 56 Low 5 63 A 4 119

4 High 2 40 Low 4 39 A 4 7 9

1 High 0 8 Low 1 10 A 1 18

10 High 4 88 Low 2 9 5 A 3 183

11 High 7 89 Low 5 99 A 7 188

1 High 0 10 Low 1 10 A 1 2 0

2 High 0 19 Low 1 2 1 A 0 40

1 High 0 9 Low 1 8 A 1 17

1 High 1 9 Low 1 9 A 1 18

4 High 1 36 Low 3 36 A 2 72

1 High 1 8 Low 1 10 A 1 18

1 High 0 10 Low 0 11 A 0 2 1

4 High 3 3 6 Low 2 43 A 3 7 9

97 High 49 888 Low 53 917 A 56 1805

Chi-squared tests: x2 (28 df px

High 26.258 0.559 Low 30.706 0.330 A 29.390 0.393

R. G. Jahn et al.

TABLE 3 Continued

Op. Ns H/L Ss NR SR P 0 Z


Nop. H/L Z > 0.00 ( P I < .5) Z > 1.645 (P I < .05) Z < 1.645 (P I > .95)

2 8 High 15 Low 17 A 18

Note: Op. = operator; Ns= number of series; H/L = high or low random-event-generator driver; Ss = number of successful series; NR = number of runs; SR = number of successful runs; p = trial mean shift; o = standard error; Z = Z score = p/o; N op. = number of operators; $E = chance expectation.

Significant at P < .05. (*I Significant at P > .95.

database (Jahn et al., 1997), as well as to the exploratory data described in Ap- pendix B, even though the low statistical power of this small data set imposes large error bars on this value. These comparisons are illustrated in Figure 6. It also is interesting that significant ZA values were attained by 4 of the 2 1 operators, compared to roughly one expected by chance, and that on a two-tailed

TABLE 4 All Operator Success Summary

195 High 93 1,773 895 -.0027 .0160 -0.1691 LOW 96 1,824 903 -.0009 .0160 -0.0583 A 109 3,597 1798 -0.1608

Chi-squared tests: x2 (49 df px

High 46.022 0.595 Low 46.168 0.589 A 46.333 0.5823


Nop. H/L Z > 0.00 (P I < .5) Z > 1.645 (P I < .05) Z < 1.645 ( P I > .95)

49 High 26 Low 26 A 2 9

Note: Ns= number of series; H/L = high or low random-event-generator driver; Ss = number of successful series; NR = number of runs; SR = number of successful runs; p = trial mean shift; o = standard error; Z = Z score = y/o; N op. = number of operators; CE = chance expectation.


Fig. 1. Runwise success rates by operators.

basis over the separate high and low runs, 9 of the operators scored in the 121 > 1.645 tails. In other words, despite the apparently inconclusive composite results, the individual operator performances display potentially instructive idiosyncratic effects.

0

0

1 .o-

0.8-

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0 0

Interpretations and Speculations

Sqrt(Number of Runs)

Female v Male o

- v v

5 2

rm 0 0 6 ' 0 0 v 0 V

0 o v 0

v 0

-

-

I I I 5 10 15 20

Given the equivocal character of the data derived from this sequence of ArtREG experiments, any conclusions and interpretations thereof must be re-


0 1 2 3 4 Sqrt(Number of Series)

Fig. 2. Effect sizes by operators.

garded as tentative, speculative, and possibly even intuitive. Clearly, the composite results do not support the hypothesis that attractive and engaging feedback displays enable substantially larger anomalous effects, a conclusion that appears to be consistent with the early results of a number of our other visually appealing experiments. The attempt to assess the relative importance of the visual feedback on operator performance compared to that of the REG digital output stream, per se, also has been thwarted by the small effect sizes. Indeed, we now might speculate whether the blinding of the operator to the high ver-

TABLE 5 Success Ratios by Picture (Rank Ordered)

All Male Female

S/N 2s Sat. tsltt S I N Zs Rank S/N Zs Rank

Anubis Apache Wave Petals Random Abduction Mask Bear India World 2 Egypt Toledo Arch Rug Shield Horserug World Acacia Hand Surf Calder Japan Leopard Park

33.25 (24 df) (Px = 0.099) &=33.61 (24df) (P, = 0.092)

x g = 21.70 (22 df) (P, = 0.478)

Note: SIN = successful runsltotal number of runs; Zs = Z score of S/N; Sat. = successful runs saturatedltotal number of saturated runs; t,lt, = average number of trials for successful runslaverage number of trials for all runs.



Fig. 3. Runwise success rates by target image.

sus low outputs of REG might be implicated in the reduction of effect size in the main group of experiments. Yet, as in many earlier studies, both "successful" and "unsuccessful," various details appear in the ArtREG data that if better comprehended could possibly point to more incisive experimental and theoretical strategies and to better understanding of the underlying phenomena.

The somewhat better yield from the mystical or symbolic image subset also prompts a few intuitive speculations. First, it may be that the explicit artistic feedback characteristic of most of the pictorial targets, rather than enhancing


TABLE 6 Success Ratios by Picture Versus Random Background (Rank Ordered)

Wave Anubis Mask Bear Apache Leopard India World Toledo Hand World 2 Calder Park Acacia Egypt All

X 2 = 10.09 (1 5 df) (P,=O.81)

Note: S/F = successful runslfailed runs; ZSIF = Z score of S/F.

the resonance of the operator with the experiment, actually may inhibit such because of its specificity. That is, just as a fully random physical source appears to be requisite raw material for production of a more ordered digital stream in our standard REG experiments (Jahn et al., 1997), so the operator's consciousness may prefer less associative constraint on the imagery it employs to achieve its resonance with the experimental task than the fully articu- lated pictures allow. Only in the more vague and symbolic illustrations, such as those used in the ad hoc experiment, may some relief from this encum- brance be provided. Alternatively, it may be the symbolic, personalized meaning of the feedback, i.e., its particular relevance to the operator, that is the crucial ingredient in establishing a productive humanlmachine bond, and that the mystical subset carries more such individualized meanings to the operator. Or finally, all of these weak results may just be another indication that feedback, in any form, is not a major requisite in producing such anomalous effects. This interpretation would be consistent with the positive results of our Remote REG (Dunne and Jahn, 1992), Remote Perception (Nelson et al., 1996), and FieldREG experiments (Nelson et al., 1998), in which success is achieved even though no form of immediate feedback is available. Indeed, it is even possible that the anomalous effect sizes are fundamentally unamplifiable by any experimental strategy, i.e., that their scale is intrinsically constrained to at best a few parts per thousand, so that major statistical effects can be found only in very large individual or collective databases.

In any case, these results have taught us that we must broaden our range of potentially important variables beyond those so far explored to include subtler

R. G. Jahn et al.


Fig. 4. Runwise success rates for targets versus random.

TABLE 7

Ad Hoc Experiment: Overall Run Score Summaries

All High Low

No. of runs 404 202 202 No. of successes 200 96 104 No. of failures 204 106 9 8 Z score (successes/failures) -0.1990 -0.7036 0.4222


TABLE 8 Ad Hoc Experiment Operator Result

10 8 High 6 (F) Low 5

A 6

14 7 High 4 (MI Low 2

A 3

17 10 High 4 (F) Low 4

A 4


A 2


A 4

196 1 High 0 (M/F) Low 1

A 1

213 1 High 1 (M/M) Low 1

A 1

240 2 High 0 (M/F) Low 1

A 1

263 1 High 0 (M/F) Low 1

A 0

282 2 High 1 (M/F) Low 1

A 0

307 10 High 4 (M) Low 4

A 4

318 2 High 0 (F) Low 0

A 0

373 5 High 2 (F) Low 4

A 5


A 1

462 8 High 6 (M) Low 4

A 7

R. G. Jahn et al.

TABLE 8 Continued

500 6 (F)

516 3 (F)

549 10 (MI

551 3 (F)

552 3 (MI

555 3 (M)

All 101

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

Chi-squared tests:

x2 (2 1 df px

High 3 1.762 0.062 Low 18.204 0.636 A 27.089 0.168


Nop. H/L Z > 0.00 (PI < .5) Z > 1.645 (Pi < .05) Z<-1.645 (Pi > .95)

2 1 High 8 Low 11 A 10

Note: Op. = operator; Ns= number of series; H/L = high or low random-event-generator driver; Ss = number of successful series; NR = number of runs; SR = number of successful runs; p = trial mean shift; (3 = standard error; Z = Z score = p/o; Nop. = number of operators; PE = chance expectation.

Significant at P < .05. (*) Significant at P > .95.

ArtREG: A Random Event Experiment 40 1

TABLE 9 Ad Hoe Experiment: Success Ratios by Picture (Rank Ordered)

Rank Prior rank SIN 2s

Apache India Egypt Random Anubis Mask Bear Wave All

X2 = 10.486 (8 df) (P,= 0.23)

Note: SIN = successful runs/total number of runs; Zs = Z score of SIN.

personal factors, such as environmental influences, operator and experimenter attitudes, and the role of subjective meaning, in our future experimental designs if we are to acquire deeper understanding of these consciousness-related physical phenomena.

Appendix A: ArtREG Illustrations

All of the pictures utilized in the main body of ArtREG experiments and in the ad hoc subset are reproduced here in black and white to reduce printing costs. A few sets of full color reproductions are retained in our laboratory.

Appendix B: Prior Explorations

The formal ArtREG experiments reported in the body of this paper de- volved from an earlier informal set of exploratory studies performed as the equipment was being brought on line and the protocols were being refined. These initial experiments closely followed our standard REG protocols, using series of 1,000 trials taken under the three directional intentions: high, low, and baseline. These were grouped in four sets of 250-trial runs per direction, with the operators blind to the randomly assigned directions. All runs required completion of 250 trials, even though picture saturation may have been achieved during the run. All told, 13 operators completed a total of 37 series, with the results displayed in Table 10. Although none of the operators, nor the group as a whole, achieved statistical significance in the high-low separation, the overall effect was in the intended direction, with an absolute size comparable to that characteristic of our much larger benchmark REG studies (Jahn et al., 1997), and hence regarded as propitious for more formal and extensive experiments.


Based on the reactions of several of these operators, a number of changes in processing and protocol were implemented before the formal experiments were begun, namely:

1. The baseline direction was eliminated. 2. Runs were allowed to terminate on saturation in either direction. 3. The total number of trials per series remained at 1,000 for the high and


Benchmark REG ArtREG Ad-Hoc

Fig. 6. Effect-size comparisons.

the low directions, but these included some shortened (saturated) runs, as well as full 250-trial runs.

4. Additional pictures were added to the library, and a few were removed.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge their indebtedness to Dr. Andrei Berezin of Moscow, Russia, who, in the course of an extended visiting ap- pointment in our laboratory, first proposed an REG experiment with an artistic visual feedback display. Although the details of the ArtREG implementa- tion have evolved considerably since his original conception of the idea, it was nonetheless seminal to the studies reported here.

We also would like to thank the many operators who, without compensation or identification, have generously provided the databases of this project, Several other members of the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research (PEAR) staff, other than the authors, have also played important roles in the conduct and interpretation of the experiments, as well as in the preparation of this report. In particular, Lisa Langelier-Marks has spent a considerable amount of time and effort implementing an effective and attractive technical text.

The PEAR program gratefully acknowledges the enduring financial support of the Institut fiir Grenzgebiete der Psychologie und Psychohygiene; The Lifebridge Foundation, Richard Adams; George Ohrstrom; Laurance Rocke- feller; Donald Webster; and numerous other private contributors.

404 R. C;. Jahn et al.

3. Wave 4. Petals

ArtREG: A Random Event Experi~nent

1 1 . Egypt 12. Tolcdo


13. Arch 14. Rug

17. World 18, Acacia


19. Hand 20. Surf I

2 1. Calder 22. Japan I

23. Leopard 24. Park

R. G. Jahn et al.

TABLE 10 ArtREG, Exploratory

7 1

10 16

21 1

41 1

78 3

84 1

161 6

171 1

173 1

174 3

182 1

406 1

813 1

All 37

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A

High Low A


TABLE 10 Continued

Chi-squared tests:

High 10.450 0.657 Low 6.439 0.929 A 8.736 0.793

Note: Op. = operator; Ns= number of series; HIL = high or low random-event-generator driver; Ss = number of successful series; NR = number of runs; SR = number of successful runs; p = trial mean shift; o = standard error; Z = Z score = plo.

References

Dunne, B. J., & Jahn, R. G. (1992). Experiments in remote humanlmachine interaction. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 6(4), 3 1 1-332.

Jahn, R. G., Dunne, B. J., Nelson, R. D., Dobyns, Y. H., & Bradish, G. J. (1997). Correlations of random binary sequences with pre-stated operator intention: A review of a 12-year program. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 11(3), 345-367.

Nelson, R. D., Bradish, G. J., & Dobyns, Y. H. (1992). The portable PEAR REG: Hardware and software documentation. Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research, Princeton, NJ-Inter- nal Document, 92(1), 37.

Nelson, R. D., Dobyns, Y. H., Jahn, R. G., & Dunne, B. J. (1999). Contributions to variance in REG experiments: ANOVA models and specialized subsidiary analyses. Princeton Engineer- ing Anomalies Research, Princeton, NJ-Internal Document, 99(2), 29.

Nelson, R. D., Dunne, B. J., Dobyns, Y. H., & Jahn, R. G. (1996). Precognitive remote perception: Replication of remote viewing. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 10(1), 109-1 10.

Nelson, R. D., Jahn, R. G., Dunne, B. J., Dobyns, Y. H., & Bradish, G. J. (1998). FieldREG 11: Consciousness field effects: Replications and explorations. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 12(3), 425-454.

Journal of Scientific Exploration. Vol. 14, N o . 3, pp. 41 1-420,2000 0892-33 10/00 O 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

Can Population Growth Rule Out Reincarnation? A Model of Circular Migration

Johns Hopkins School o f Public Health Department of Population and Family Health Sciences

615 N. Wove St., Baltimore, MD 21205 Phone (41 0 ) 955- 7807, Fax (4 10) 955-2303

e-mail: [email protected]

Abstract-Many have tried to draw scientific inferences about the existence or nonexistence of an afterlife from observations undertaken in the natural world. A leading example of these attempts is the common refutation of the hypothesis of reincarnation as being inconsistent with human population growth. This paper demonstrates that the demographic refutation of reincarnation only holds if supplemented by substantial metaphysical assumptions. A simple Markov model of circular migration can account for population growth and remain consistent with a reincarnation hypothesis. Though the chief attraction of the circular migration model is its simplicity, the model also has implications about how long people would have to remain discarnate. Because multiple conflicting theories about the existence and nonexistence of an afterlife are consistent with the currently available data, there can be no conclusion regarding which is correct. An incorrect assessment of the limits to what can verifiably be known about an afterlife has plagued our predeces- sors with schisms, wars, and intolerance. It need not plague our successors.

Keywords: reincarnation-population

Introduction

Edwards (1996) credits the early church father, Tertullian, for originating the notion that human population growth automatically invalidates the hypothesis of reincarnation. It is argued that a growing population of human bodies would somehow "run out" of souls with which to be incarnated. To accept such a claim would be to accept that one can observe the world and its population of living creatures and thereby make testable claims about the existence or nonexistence of an afterlife. The general answer to this question is of some interest, because the media has begun to feature several clips of professional scientists expressing "scientific" opinions about supernatural phenomenon. Can science really shed light on realms that are void of data? Despite the interest of these more general questions, this paper will be confined to examining the claim that the observed growth of the human population is inconsistent with the reincarnation hypothesis. The paper begins with a discussion of the facts of human population growth followed by two simple theoretical models to ac-

412 D. Bishai

count for these facts. The two theories are compared. Finally, the reader will be left to judge whether the demographic refutation of reincarnation is as simple as has been commonly thought.

Facts

The facts of life are clear. Each human lifespan has a beginning and an end. Each lifespan can be measured as the interval between birth and death.

Another unassailable fact is that the planet's human population is complet- ing a phase of more than 500 years of unprecedented population growth. Our population's history can be divided into three phases. The modern phase dates to the middle of the second millennium and is characterized both by the highest growth rates and the best quality demographic data. The world's current population is approximately 6 billion and is sustained by an annual birth cohort of 135 m i l l i o n 8 5 million more than the annual death toll of 50 million. A sustained global decline in the fertility rate began over 20 years ago and shows no sign of reversing. Barring significant unforeseen economic or epi- demiological setbacks, world population should peak at roughly 10 billion about the year 2050 (United Nations, 1998).

Data on the historical size of the world's population is more sparse. The Roman empire, from Spain to the Near East, was estimated to be between 45 and 90 million persons during the reign of Augustus in 14 A.D. A very rough estimate of the world's population around 1 A.D. is about 300 million people (Haub, 1995). Historians of the Eastern hemisphere record at least two large fluctuations in population growth in this era. One fluctuation was caused by the Black Plague in which about one third of the population of Europe is thought to have perished (McNeill, 1976; Ziegler, 1969). The other population shock during this period can be attributed to the Asian Expansion led by Temu- jin of Mongolia. Without these two fluctuations, the historical era may have seen much larger population growth rates. As it was, overall population growth between 1 A.D. and 1650 A.D. was lower than for the period between 8000 B.C. and 1 A.D.

There is even less data on the size of human populations prior to the development of writing. The current consensus is that the size of the world's human population in 8000 B.C. was about 5 million (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1997). This implies a sustained growth rate of .05% per year between 8000 B.C and 1 A.D. Barely sustained growth would be a more apt description- --

given child mortality rates of roughly 30%, every woman would have been required to have at least six children for the population to fend off extinction.

A common question to be asked in the context of observations on the history of human population growth is, "How many people have ever lived on earth?" Any answer must be as arbitrary as selecting the starting point for our species based on the fossil record. At what historical point does one wish to accord the title "person" to the beings who animated the primate fossils that have been unearthed in the last 150 years. Although there is unassailable consensus that

Population Growth and Reincarnation 413

the Cro-Magnon who painted the walls of caves in 30,000 B.C. were "people", it becomes murkier to assign this status to earlier primates whose only remaining artifacts are stone tools.

It is unlikely that there will ever be an unassailable answer. Furthermore, as new fossils are unearthed, we will certainly learn more about which ancestor did what and when. For now, I suggest that the evidence of ritualized burials that show the intentional combination of artifacts with human remains offers as good a starting point as any for our species. The capacity to grieve, as evidenced by a ritualized burial, almost certainly requires the cognitive capacity to retain a mental representation of the counterfactual-an imagined world still animated by the dead loved one. The site bearing the earliest fossils with modem Homo sapiens morphology in a ritualized burial are from Qafzeh in modern Israel. It dates to the Mousterian era of the Middle Paleolithic, which is roughly 50,000 B.C. (Mellars, 1989). The skeleton was found in the fetal position, embraced by a large deer antler.

With this arbitrary starting point, one may integrate the area under a series of exponential population growth curves to determine the number of human beings ever born. Using a starting date of 50,000 B.C., Haub (1995) offers an estimate of 105 billion human beings ever born. If these historical human lifespans conformed to the United Nations' high mortality pattern (United Na- tions, 1982), roughly 17 billion human lives would have ended before age 1, and 30 billion lives would have terminated before age 15. Those who see some religious significance to a cycle of human rebirth seldom grapple with the fact that nearly one in six human rebirths would have been followed by a "redeath" in less than a year.

Theories

As evidenced by the burial sites of our ancestdrs, theories to explain the facts of life are as old as man. A theory that appears to have been espoused by the vast majority of the 70 billion human beings who ever survived to adult- hood is that there is a human soul that has some existence after the body has died. Accounts of the state of the disembodied human soul are many and varied. East and West differ over whether the soul returns to inhabit another living body or whether the soul goes on to some ethereal state of reward or punish- ment.

Another theory is that there is no soul, only bodies made of atoms and mole- cules. Although this theory is sometimes called the scientific view, reflection shows that this theory is neither more nor less amenable to the publicly verifiable empirical tests required of scientific theories than are the more ancient religious teachings on the afterlife. To support their opinion, people that do not believe there are souls point to a lack of verifiable cases of reincarnation.

414 D. Bishai

Fig. 1. Linear migration model.

Materials and Methods

Computer Simulation

A computer simulation of the last 52,000 years of human population growth was programmed using Excel software under two different models of the nature of the afterlife. The models and the equations that represent them are discussed below.

Models of the Human Population

This paper will sketch out two competing accounts of the metaphysical implications of human population growth using Markov models. Markov models are a common tool in demography, epidemiology, and engineering and are used to model processes where there are transitions between states. In this application, the state of interest is the state of membership in the population of living human beings. Let us call this state A.

Model 1. The linear migration model. The linear migration model (LMM) depicts the Markov process as shown in Figure 1. Individuals enter state A from an undefined source through a process called birth at a rate RBA. They exit state A to an undefined sink through a process called death at a rate RAB. The model predicts that human population growth will be accompanied by birth rates in excess of death rates. Mathematically, the prediction is dPA/dt > 0 H RBA > RAB. The assumptions required by the LMM are that human souls are continuously created from an undefined source and continuously destroyed in an undefined sink.

Model 2. The circular migration model. An alternative model of the human population will be called the circular migration model (CMM). In the CMM, there are no ill-defined sources or sinks. Souls enter state A from state B through a process called incarnation at rate RBA.' Souls depart state A and re-

' The notational use of subscripts A and B may be made more useful by recalling that the Sanskrit "Atman" refers to the subjectively observable earthly soul and that the word "Bardo" is Tibetan for the afterworld.


Fig. 2. Circular migration model.

turn to state B through a process called excarnation at rate RAB. Both incarnation and excarnation are observable processes documented publicly through birth and death certificates and recorded in vital registration databases. The model predicts that dPA/dt > 0 H RBA > RAB. In its simplest form, it assumes that human souls are neither created nor destroyed. More complex versions of the CMM not discussed here could accommodate the relaxation of this assumption.

For simplicity, this paper invokes the assumption that the sum of incarnated and unincarnated human souls has been constant throughout history (PA + PB = K, where K is constant). This is not a necessary feature of the reincarnation hypothesis, nor is it a necessary feature of the CMM.

Many religious traditions hold that there are multiple states of heavens, hells, and purgatories in their accounts of an afterlife. The basic CMM, however, would gain little by incorporating such states. Indeed, Edwards (1996) singles out for scorn the multiple variants of the CMM with what he terms "noxious ad hoc assumptions" governing transitions of souls to astral planes, other galaxies, and animals. If there ever were census data or vital registration data available for these realms, the CMM could easily be enlarged to encom- pass them. Another feature that is not in the basic CMM is the creation or de- struction of souls as depicted by the source and sink in LMM. The CMM could be enlarged to accommodate such features by grafting sources and sinks linked to state B. However, despite multiple conjectures by both spiritual and scientific scholars, there are no preliminary data on which to base such a hypothesis.

We will use the available demographic data to assess both the LMM and the CMM. According to both models, all of the observers and all of the observations occur in state A. Indeed, it is with respect to data on the living human population that the models will be assessed.

Table 1 summarizes the assumptions and predictions of the two models. Both models require strong assumptions about the eternity of the human soul.

TABLE 1 Summary of the Models of Human Population

Model Predictions Assumptions Implication

Linear dPA/dt > 0 H RBA > RAB Human souls Undefined sources migration continuously and sinks for model created and human population

destroyed

Circular dPA/dt > 0 e RBA > RAB Human souls Simple version migration neither created requires that model nor destroyed PA + PB = Constant (simple version)

The LMM requires one to assume that the soul is ephemeral and finite. The basic CMM requires one to assume that each human soul is eternal. Both models predict the equivalence of population growth with disequilibrium in entry and exit to state A. The CMM is thought to be vulnerable in its simplifying assumption that PA + PB = K where K is constant (Edwards, 1996), but relaxing that assumption does not lead to a fundamental change in the dynamics of the model.

Results

What do the Models Imply About the Dwell Time in Each State?

In any first-order process, the reciprocal of the rate of outflow per inhabitant per unit time is a good approximation to the average dwell time of each inhabitant in a state. In both models, the rate of outflow from state A is characterized by TAB, which has the demographic interpretation of the crude death rate (deaths per 1,000 living persons per year). As an illustration, suppose one takes ~ A B = 0.014, a number close to the crude death rate of the United States. The average duration of life then is 110.014, or roughly 70 years. Table 2 presents the average human lifespans (or dwell times in state A), implied by applying both of these models to modern and historical crude death rates for the human population.

Because observations are taken from state A, demographers have found it most natural to calculate crude birth rates, TBA, (births per 1,000 living persons per year) relative to state A, such that RBA = ~ B A X PA = number of births into A per year. In order to apply the time constant approximation to the CMM, it is necessary to transform r g ~ such that it mediates an outflow and is expressed as births divided by the population in state B. Simple algebra shows that such a transformation would be rBA' = TBA (PA/PB). Using the renormalized rate, the expression, RBA = rBA' X PB, is equal to the number of emigrants flowing out of B each year. The reciprocal of rBA', or (K - PA)/(PA X r g ~ ) is the formula used in the computer simulation to compute the state-B dwell times shown in


Table 2. However, there is no obvious value for K to use. A reasonable minimum value for K would be 10 billion souls. This figure is the projected peak of the human earthly population that will be alive at the end of the next century (United Nations, 1998). A reasonable maximum would be the number of humans who have ever lived (e.g., roughly 100 billion souls), because this figure would exhaust all of the human bodies into which the population of state B could possibly incarnate.

Table 2 charts the implied mean dwell time in state B as a function of modern and historical crude birth rates under various assumptions for the constant sum of PA + PB. The basic result is that changes in the dwell time of the unobserved state can reconcile reincarnation with population growth. This hypothesis was initially proposed by Stevenson (1974). Table 2 helps to formalize the implications of this earlier conjecture. Table 2 shows that historical fluctuations in the duration of stay in the unobserved state are consistent with historical changes in the observed human population. Although the dwell time in state A (e.g., life expectancy) has changed by a factor of 2 throughout human history, Table 2 shows that the simple CMM requires that the state-B dwell time change by a factor of as much as 2,000 over the same period to maintain population balance. The model predicts that the minimum possible average dwell time in state B in the year 2,000 would be around 30 years. Shorter dwell times for state B in the year 2,000 would require a smaller value of K and would be inconsistent with United Nation predictions that the world population will peak at around 10 billion. It should be stressed that the dwell time is a population average. Individual persons might experience either shorter or longer state-B dwell times, just as individuals might expect to live longer and shorter terrestrial lifespans than average.

Discussion

There are demographic methods to estimate the population dynamics of a population whose members migrate into an unobservable setting; however, these methods rely on interviewing immigrants about their transit time in the unobserved state. One could consider interviewing a sample of recent immigrants from state B to determine the average duration of stay in B. Because the reciprocal of the duration approximates rgA1, this information together with a count of the annual number of immigrants from B to A (RBA) would be sufficient grounds for an estimate of PB (Laska, Lin, & Meisner, 1997).

Perhaps someday the database of interviews with children who recall past lives will be widely regarded as a suitable means of estimating the size and duration of stay of the discarnate population. Such return migrants would need to be asked how long they spent in the discarnate state to see if their responses accord with any of the predictions in Table 2. If nothing else, the database of interviews with children who recall past lives currently suffers from sample selection bias by all accounts. The children who recall past lives offer accounts

TABLE 2 Population and Dwell Time in State A and B throughout History

Stylized facts 50,000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 1650 A.D. 2000 A.D.

Crude birth rate (births per living personlyear)

Crude death rate (deaths per living personlyear)

Circular migration model State A population in persons State A dwell time in years

K = 10 Billion State B population in persons State B dwell time in years

K = 20 Billion State B population in persons State B dwell time in years

K = I00 Billion State B population in persons State B dwell time in years

Linear migration model State A population in persons State A dwell time in years State B population in persons

Note: State A and state B can be identified respectively with incarnate and discarnate states. The variable K denotes the sum of population in state A + population in state B and is assumed constant in the variants of the simple circular migration model presented here.

420 D. Bishai

References

Edwards, P. (1996). Reincarnation: A critical examination. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. Haub, C. (1995, February). How many people have ever lived on earth? Population Today, 23(2),

4-5. Keil, J. & Stevenson, I. (1 999). Do cases of the reincarnation type show similar features over many

years? Journal of Scientific Exploration, 13, 189-198. Laska, E., Lin, S., & Meisner, M. (1997). Estimating the size of a population from a single sample:

Methodology and practical issues. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 50, 1 143-1 154. McNeill, W. H. (1976). Plagues andpeoples. Garden City, NY: Anchor Press. Mellars, P. (1989). Major issues in the emergence of modem humans. Current Anthropology, 30,

349-385. Stevenson, I. (1974). Some questions related to cases of the reincarnation type. Journal of the

American Society for Psychical Research, 68, 395-41 6. United Nations. (1982). Model life tables for developing countries. New York: United Nations. United Nations. (1998). Worldpopulation projections to 2150. New York: United Nations. U.S. Bureau of the Census. (1997). Historical estimates of world population. Washington, DC:

U.S. Bureau of the Census. Retrieved November 12, 1997, from the World Wide Web: http://www.census.gov/ipc/ www/worldhis.html

Ziegler, P. (1969). The Black Death. London: Collins.

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 42 1430,2000 0892-33 10/00 0 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

COMMENTARY

The Mars Effect Is Genuine: On Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu's Missing the Evidence

Znstitutfur Psychologie Gosslerstrasse 14, 0-37073 Gottingen, Germany

596 Villa Avenue Staten Island, NY 10302-1947

Abstract-Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu (1 997), instead of explaining the anomaly in their planetary data that we discovered (Ertel and Irving, 1997), launch a broadside attack against all claims of Gauquelin-type correlations. In our rejoinder, we provide evidence for highly significant Mars-effect results based on the skeptics' own samples. Regarding CSICOP's data problem, we suggested an inoffensive explanation, but Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu have, to date, precluded access to their original documents. More- over, after looking at additional cues introduced by the skeptics themselves, we found the significance of CSICOP's data anomaly more conspicuous (p =

.001) than with our earlier finding (p = .02). The skeptics' rejection of our evidence is thus unfounded.

Keywords: Mars effect - planetary correlations - skeptics - CSICOP - selection bias - IMQ-ISMQ

Introduction

An anomaly was uncovered in CSICOP's birth data of athletes. The validity of Kurtz, Zelen, and Abell's devastating verdict (1979180) on the Mars effect was therefore questioned (Ertel and Irving, 1997). Rather than reply to our critique, Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu (1997) take two tacks. First, they discredit all planetary correlations ever reported by the Gauquelins, Ertel, or Miiller. Second, they resort to ad hominems, accusing us of "tactics, tricks, tinkerings, irresponsible insinuations," usage of "abstruse" methods and "statistical manipulations," etc. We will deal with the first only, except where the second can be addressed by factual corrections. We also provide new results regarding our original question: Where did the anomaly in CSICOP7s data come from?'

The Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu (1 997) article ignores nearly all of the 50 comments on an earlier draft we offered prior to its publication.

422 Suitbert Ertel & Kenneth Irving

The Athletes' Mars Effect

Our critics' attack on planetary effects fails in view of compelling counterevidence: Gauquelin's Mars-effect results are replicated by the data of his most critical opponents. Frequencies of athletes' births occurring while Mars is crossing the 36 sectors of its daily circle are given with deviations from expected frequencies (Figure I ) . ~ The dashed curve is based on Gauquelin's total (N = 4,384), the solid curve on the skeptics' total (N = 1,664) to which Committee PARA (CP) (Belgian), CSICOP (United States), and CFEPP (French) contributed (by N = 535,408, and 1,066, respectively), with overlap cases among skeptics excluded. It can be seen that the skeptics' and Gauquelin's results hardly diverge, and Kendall's Tau correlation between the two curves is highly significant (r = 3 . 4 4 , ~ = .0003).'

Is there a Mars effect, i.e., an above-chance deviation of people born with Mars in "sensitive" sectors (generally designated as G%)? Narrow and Gauquelin-extended definitions of planetary G% have been proposed:

1 .The narrow (classical) definition is as follows: The percentage of births with the planet in primary sectors-i.e., sectors 1, 2, or 3 (region after rise) and 10, 11, or 12 (after culmination). "Main sectors" (abbreviated M ) is an alternative term.

2.The Gauquelin-extended definition is the percentage of births as per the narrow definition plus the percentage of births in initial sectors 36 (just before rise) and 9 (just before culmination) (abbreviated I).

3 .According to the Nienhuys-extended definition, the percentage of births in sectors 19, 20, and 21 (after set) and 28, 29, and 30 (after lower culmination) are added to the percentage of the Gauquelin-extended definition. Nienhuys called the set and lower culmination sectors, along with initial sectors 9 and 36, "secondary sectors" (abbreviated S ) .

Is Definition 3 justified? Gauquelin had noticed early on that births of sports champions clustered in secondary sectors, although less conspicuously than in primary sectors. However, he never considered them, as in Definition 3, nor did he mention them in the course of the Mars-effect debate with skeptics. Secondary sectors were also generally neglected in the skeptics' studies. Definition 1 was generally taken as binding.

Figure 1 shows deviations from expectancies, not expectancies; zero deviations thus represent a straight line (dotted horizontal) even though the expectancies are not quite uniform as in Figure 2 for births of physicians (expectancies are almost identical for Figure 1 athletes and other samples).

Thirty-two percent of the skeptics' athletes are part of the larger Gauquelin sample. But this does not explain why the skeptics' and Gauquelin's Mars-effect deviations are alike. If the effect were due to Gauquelin's selection bias, it should not reappear in a sample gathered entirely by those highly skeptical of the effect. The Belgian sample was mildly affected by Gauquelin who assisted the data collectors (Ertel's discovery of 1996). However, indications of a Mars effect are present even after amending the sample (by adding data formerly excluded from the sample) or by analyzing the skeptics' data without the Belgian contribution (Ertel, 1998).

The Mars Effect Is Genuine

Mars sensitive sectors

t Primary &av m m

Rise Culmination Set Lwerculm

Skeptics'data (N=1,664) : a@ - &hed Gauquelindata(N=4,384): o orig ------ &hed

Fig. 1. Count of athletes' births (deviations from expectancy) across 36 Mars sectors, primary sectors (rise, culmination), and secondary sectors (set, lower culmination). Samples: skeptics (CP, CSICOP, CFEPP, N = 1,664), solid line and full circles; Gauquelin (published and unpublished, N = 4,384), dashed line and open circles.

Interestingly, Nienhuys observed a considerable surplus of births in secondary sectors among data that Gauquelin urged the CFEPP to consider for its study (Benski et al., 1996, p. 125ff). He took this as support for the view that Gauquelin's data selections were biased without realizing that such insinua- tion was astray, because by adding Gauquelin's secondary sector cases, the CFEPP's Mars effect (by the agreed-upon Definition 1) cannot increase; on the contrary, the effect drops. Because Nienhuys took secondary sectors to support the skeptics' case, we deem it legitimate to consider them too expect- ing that via Definition 3, they will actually add pertinent information.

Mars birth percentages (G%) for the above three definitions are given in Table 1, separately for the Gauquelin, the skeptics7, and both samples combined. (The raw data, birth frequencies across all 36 Mars sectors, are available on a web-site.4) The binomial test shows that for the combined sample

Check with Internet URLs from Jim Lippard and Ken Irving: http://www. discord.org/skeptical/ astrology and http://www.primenet.com/kirving. Quite a few articles and discussions on the Mars-effect debate, book reviews, and a chronology of pertinent events are accessible there.


TABLE 1 Main Results Based on the Gauquelin and the Skeptics' Data Sets for

Mars-Effect Definitions 1,2, and 3 (Narrow, G-Extended, and N-Extended)

Data Definition N Obs. Exp. Mars G% p Kappa

Gauquelin 1 2 3

Skeptics 1 2 3

Combined 1 2 3

Note: N = total number; Mars G% = percentage of cases with Mars in G sectors; Obs. = observed frequencies; Exp. = expected frequencies (percentages 17.4,23.2, and 39.0 for definitions 1 ,2 , and 3 respectively);~ = error probability; Kappa = effect size.

and the Gauquelin sample alone the Mars effect is statistically very significant, whatever its definition. For the skeptics' sample alone, the Mars effect reaches this level only with Definition 3.

The skeptics' lower G% and less extremep values are due, above all, to the inclusion of less eminent athletes (Ertel and Irving, 1996)~ apart from the smaller size of their sample.

Regarding effect size, though it is lower for the skeptics' G% with Defini- tions 1 and 2, it is larger with Definition 3 . In view of the above results and of additional evidence for the Mars effect in the skeptics' data (Ertel, 1994, 1996), our critics' allegation that the Mars effect is a mere "illusion" (Nien- huys in Benski et al, 1996) should be rejected.

The Physicians' Saturn and Mars Effects

Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu (1997, footnote 10) discredit Miiller and Ertel's (1994) test of planetary effects with members of the French Acadkmie de Mkdecine. The aim of that study was to replicate Gauquelin's 1955-1960 planetary correlations, based on the 1939 edition of the academy's directory (N = 576 members), now using the larger 1972 edition with N = 9 15 members.

Counts of the physicians' births across Mars and Saturn sectors are shown in Figure 2. Birth excess occurs in rise and culmination zones. The error prob-

Effects by Gauquelin's selection bias were undone by reuniting his unpublished cases (N = 1,503) with his published cases (N = 2,880). By contrast, the skeptics' samples remained uncorrected. Benski et al. (1996) refused to correct them, even in those cases where they acknowledged Gauquelin's criticisms as justified.

The Mars Effect Is Genuine 425

SATURN - smoothed (FK-2) - expected .a MARS ------- smoothed (FK-2) - - - - - - - expected

Fig. 2. Count of births of members of the Academie de Medecine across Saturn and Mars sectors. (Saturn: solid line and full circles; Mars: dashed line and open triangles; expected frequencies: thin lines, Saturn solid, Mars dashed.) (From Miiller and Ertel, 1994, N =

1,083 .)

abilities for Mars G% and Saturn G%, using Definitions 1, 2, and 3 are .06, .05, and .08, and .00007, .0005, and .03, respectively.6 Birth frequencies across 36 Mars and Saturn sectors, as deviations from expectancy, are significantly correlated (rho = 0 . 4 3 , ~ = .004). Miiller and Ertel's study (1994) was in no way influenced by Gauquelin. Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu's (1997) dis- counting of planetary effects in this sample as due to a "Gauquelin bias" thus cannot apply.

Eminence Trends

Regarding tack two-the attempt by Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu (1997) to raise suspicion about their critics' trustworthiness-we restrict ourselves to the eminence issue. "The eminence hypothesis falls dead flat" (Kurtz, Nien-

For physicians, unlike athletes, significance levels of G-sector percentages decrease from Defini- tion 1 to Definition 3. Relative contributions of primary and secondary sector frequencies to overall effect indicators thus vary among professions. The problem, although interesting, is not crucial.


huys, and Sandhu, 1997, p. 32). Question: Does G% increase with eminence in Gauquelin's data only (Ertel, 1988)? Answer: No. Eminence trends are also present in the skeptics' data, as shown in Figure 3. The three slopes are based, from bottom up, on Mars-effect Definitions 1, 2, and 3, and as in the case of general effect size (see above), the correlations improve as the definition is extended. In fact, by Definition 3, all six G percentages are above the line of chance expectancy and the regression is almost perfect. For the skeptics' data, eminence trends by Kendall's S for ordered contingency tables are significant (one-tailed tests), error probabilities beingp = .003,p = .001, andp = .0003 for Mars-effect Definitions 1,2, and 3, respectively.7

The results in Figure 3 are based on Ertel citation counts. Supposing these counts were flawed, as Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu (1 997) would have it, the skeptics' own sources of eminence information should not replicate Ertel's results. Pertinent tests, however, checked by six independent researchers, strongly confirm them (see Ertel, 1998199). In view of these results, Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu's (1 997) quibbling on Ertel's eminence procedure lose weight. Our critics merely stir up error variance by pointing at alleged faults of our use of biographical dictionaries (that they also contain items "not related to sporting achievement," etc.), disregarding the simple fact that part of any observed variance is error variance. Objectivity, i.e., the desired exclu- sion of subjective judgment, demands an inevitable price, an increase of error variance which, however, is unsystematic and therefore harmless and tolera- ble. The question at issue is not the presence of error variance and a corresponding decrease of precision, but rather how to explain highly significant covariance between citation counts and G% despite such a decrease of precision.*

The Anomaly in CSICOP's Data

We remind readers of our earlier discovery (Ertel and Irving, 1997) that the CSICOP data showed an inflated IMQ (initiallmain sector quotient) of 1.58 (IMQ was introduced in Ertel and Irving (1 997), and it represents the birth frequencies in the initial sectors divided by the average of birth frequencies in

In Ertel (1996), using all Gauquelin professional data, differences between Definition 2 and 3 are investigated extensively. Definition 3 yields greater effect sizes generally while significance levels do not increase much, if at all. The choice among trend tests is arbitrary, but the results are generally alike. Significance levels by Kendall's Tau correlation for narrow, G-extended, and N-extended trends are .014, .014, and .005, respectively. For Spearman's rho, significance levels are ,005, ,011, and .009. Nienhuys criticized the eminence trend with Definition 3 as being "too good to be true." He alleged that it was due to "manipulations" performed "not blind," which in his view was "an alarming revelation" (Nienhuys, 1997). A charge of fraud is unmistakable. Unfortunately, the editor of Skeptiker did not allot any space for Ertel's defense consisting of abundant counterevidence. A reply appeared elsewhere (Ertel, 2000).

Space allotment does not allow for providing grounds for rejecting Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu's (1997, p. 29) contention that Ertel and Irving's (1996) use of dictionaries was inconsistent.

The Mars Effect Is Genuine

Skeptics' data - - - - - - Gauquelin data Mars &ect percent- by definition:

0 Nenhysextenckd (vvithexpe&xy3) A Ququelin abendxl (\nith qedancy 2) a -(dh=P-wl)

Fig. 3. Percentage of births with Mars in critical G sectors (Definitions 1 ,2 , and 3), breakdown for six eminence ranks. Data: The skeptics' athletes total (N = 1,664). Expectancies for Mars-effect Definitions 1,2, and 3 are given as horizontal lines. Dashed slopes represent regression lines based on Gauquelin athletes (N = 4,384).

the main sectors). Aere, the expected IMQ is 0.95. In other words, main sector athletes in the CSICOP data, which would be considered as desired candidates in regard to Gauquelin's Mars-effect hypothesis, seemed to be missing (i.e., missing denominator cases M raised IMQ from 0.95 to 1.58) compared to cases with Mars in the seemingly harmless initial sectors, who remained unaf- f e ~ t e d . ~ Was this due to rare chance, despite statistical significance ( p = .02), or had CSICOP researchers excluded main sector athletes (leaving initial sector cases, not yet relevant at the time of their experiment, untouched), thus

According to our estimate (details must be renounced), a deficit of about 25 Mars-positive cases exists in CSIOP's sample, which estimate is conservative (by adding 25 such cases, the corresponding IMQ would come down from an inflated 1.45 to an almost uninflated 1.09).


TABLE 2 IMQs and ISMQs for CSICOP's and ComitC PARA'S Data

Sector Average IMQ Sample category f per sector ISMQ P

CSICOP Initial 2 9 (N = 408) Secondary 115

Main 5 5

Comitk PARA Initial 2 7 (N= 535) Secondary 121

Main 118

Ordinary people Initial 1,341 (N= 24,614) Secondary 5,203

Main 4,211

Note: f = summed birth frequencies; IMQ = birth count average across initial sectors divided by birth count average across main sectors; ISMQ = as per IMQ, nominator includes births in secondary sectors. Ordinary people results are used for expectancies. Initial sectors are 9 and 36; secondary sectors are 9,36, 19,20,21,28,29, and 30 (initial sectors are included); and main sectors are 1,2,3, 10, 1 1, and 12. Column 4 represents the average er sector for the Y two initial, eight secondary, and six main sectors. Column 6 represents X goodness-of-fit test (expectancies from ordinary people). a Examples for the first two values of column 5 are as follows: IMQ = 14.519.2 = 1.58 and ISMQ = 14AL9.2 = 1.57 (numerator and denominator values taken from column 4).

* significant. very significant.

lowering G% of Definition 1, while increasing tampering detector IMQ? We did not feel entitled to draw ultimate conclusions. The question, legitimate in view of our observations, is still in want of an answer.

Fortunately, more pertinent information is provided by CSICOP's data. The "I" of IMQ is based on only two neglected sectors (9 and 36) considered in Mars-effect Definition 2. But, as noted earlier, Nienhuys introduced secondary sectors 19,20,2 1,28,29, and 30 in the Mars-effect debate, the sectors we added in Definition 3 . We therefore feel entitled to replace IMQ with ISMQ (initial plus secondary sector birth counts divided by main sector birth counts). If CSICOP's inflated IMQ were fortuitous, as Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu (1997) would have it, the ISMQ-whose numerator IS (initial and secondary sectors) represents an average of births per sector for more than twice as many neglected sectors-should drop and might no longer be significant.

The results, provided in Table 2, contradict Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu's "rare chance" hypothesis, as the ISMQ does not drop (ISMQ = 1.57, IMQ =

1.58). The ISMQ's inflated level, based on more nominator cases than the IMQ's level, is in fact more significant (p[ISMQ] = .001 versusp[IMQ] = .02) (see Table 21° for the rest of the results).

The Mars Effect Is Genuine 429

TABLE 3 Counts of CSICOP Athletes' Births in Main, Initial, and Secondary Sectors (Columns 1 4 ) , IMQ

and ISMQ With Chance Probabilities (Columns 5-43), Breakdown for Unproblematic Batch 1 (Row 2) and Problematic Batches 2 and 3 (Row 3), and Differences (Row 4)

Batch Main Initial Secondary

N sectors sectors sectors IMQ PIMQ ISMQ P I ~ M Q

1 Total 408 55 29 115 1.58 .026* 1.57 .001** 2 Batch 1 128 25 6 35 0.72 NS 1.05 NS 3 Batch2 & 3 280 30 23 80 2.30 .001** 2.00 .001** 4 Difference

batch (2 & 3) vs. batch 1 - - - - 1.58 .02* 0.95 .04*

Note: IMQ = birth count average across initial sectors divided by birth count average across main sectors; ISMQ = as per IMQ, nominator includes births in secondary sect0rs.p by chi square in rowf*l to 3. p by Fisher's exact test in row 4.

significant. very significant.

ISMQ analysis allows for another scrutiny. As noted earlier, CSICOP researchers' data anomaly appeared in their second and third batches only, collected with an apparent fear of failure, not in their first batch collected with hope of success and thus without bias. Batch 1 results were surprisingly pro- Gauquelin. An inconspicuous IMQ and ISMQ (the two bias indicators) is therefore expected for Batch 1 while the two quotients should rise with Batch 2 and 3. Results in Table 3 are as expected (for IMQ, see columns 5 and 6 , and for ISMQ, see column 7 and compare lines 2 and 3). An increase of IMQ and ISMQ from Batch 1 to Batch 213 is apparent in line 4 of Table 3, and both shifts are significant by Fisher's test. l1

Despite an increase of evidence for the reported anomaly in CSICOP's data, it should be maintained that one cannot be absolutely certain that they are due to case selections corrupted by knowledge of Mars positions. But this question may be resolved by checking certain documents in the files at CSICOP's headquarters in Buffalo, New York. We suggested, "CSICOP might invite

'O To avoid laborious randomization, ISMQ's significance was based on Fisher's exact test. Gauquelin's "ordinary people" (N = 24,614, see table 2) served as controls. Fisher's significance level for CSICOP's IMQ ( p = .02) compares to our formerp = .02 from randomization and may therefore be trusted. An unexpected large negative deviation of IMQ for the Belgian (Comite PARA) data disappeared with the ISMQ and was thus apparently random. The only still unexplained anomalous results (IY? and ISMQ) are CSICOP's.

Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu (1997) attempted to reject our IMQ indicator through use of a computer simulation. A critique of this case must be renounced here. (The respective section of our paper is obtainable, on request, from S.E.)


critical non-CSICOP researchers to check the original lists of data and the correspondence with birth registry offices." Has CSICOP acted accordingly? To date, we know of no independent examination; one CSICOP-friendly associate who was invited to check with CSICOP's files eventually resigned.

Conclusion

The anomaly in CSICOP's database remains unexplained. Kurtz, Nienhuys, and Sandhu have ignored our readiness to invalidate, by finding appropriate proof among CSICOP documents, one reasonable, though possibly cor- rectable, explanation.

But one need not insist on resolving this ambiguity. It is in fact inconse- quential because, as Figures 1 and 3 and Tables 1 through 3 have shown, CSI- COP'S data, despite obvious distortions, still contribute to an unambiguous overall Mars effect. So do the data of the French Skeptics who wanted to get rid of it (Ertel, 1998199). In our view, the evidence for Gauquelin's Mars effect today is stronger than ever before. It seems so strong, that the skeptic committees' allegation that "it isn't there" is almost as enigmatic as is the fact that it is there. It is time to face the reality of Gauquelin's tenacious planetary phenomena and to design the next stage of research .

References

Benski, C., Caudron, D., Galifret, Y., Krivine, J. P., Pecker, J. C., Rouzt, M., Schatzman, E., & Nienhuys, J. W. (1996). The Mars effect: A Fench test of over 1,000 sports champions. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books.

Ertel, S. (1988). Raising the hurdle for the athletes' Mars effect. Association covaries with eminence. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 2, 53-82.

Ertel, S. (1994). Mars effect uncovered in French skeptics' data. Correlation, 13(2), 3-16. Ertel, S. (1996). How to suppress the Gauquelin Mars effect. Strategies of concerned committees.

Correlation, l5(1), 2-16. Ertel. S. (1998). Man tut sich schwer mit dem Mars-Effekt. Zu einer Buch-Rezension N.

Rohrkohls. Grenzgebiete der Wissenschaft 47,269-274. Ertel, S. (1998199). Is there no Mars effect? The CFEPP's verdict scrutinized with the assistance

of six independent researchers. Correlation, 17(2), 4-23. Ertel, S. (2000). Debunking with caution: clearing up Mars effect research. Correlation 18(2),

9-4 1. Ertel, S., & Irving, K. (1996). The tenacious Mars effect. London: Urania Trust. Ertel, S., & Irving, K. (1997). Biased data selection in Mars effect research. Journal of Scientific

Exploration, 11, 1-1 8. Kurtz, P., Zelen, M., & Abell, G. (1979180). Results of the U.S. test of the "Mars effect" are nega-

tive. The Skeptical Inquirer, winter, 10-26. Kurtz, P., Nienhuys, J. W., & Sandhu, R. (1 997). Is the "Mars effect" genuine? Journal of Scientif-

ic Exploration, 10, 1-2 1. Miiller, A., & Ertel, S. (1994). 1,083 Members of the French Acadkmie de Midecine. Astro-

forschungsdaten (Vol. 5). Waldmohr: A. P. Miiller. Nienhuys, J. W. (1997). Ertel's "Mars-Effect": Anatomie einer Pseudowissenschaft. Skeptiker,

10, 92-98. Wunder, E. (1997). Der "Mars-Effect": Besteht noch Forschungsbedarf! Skeptiker, 10, 99-105.

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 43 1-446,2000 0892-33 10100 O 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration 1

Bulky Mars Effect Hard to Hide: Comment on Dommanget's I

Account of the Belgian Skeptics' Research

Institut fur Psychologie Gosslerstrasse 14, 0 - 3 7073 Gottingen, Germany

Abstract-In 1997, Jean Dommanget gave an account of investigations on the Mars effect claim conducted by the Belgian skeptics' committee PARA. Gauquelin had shown that their data revealed a strong Mars effect. Dom- manget rejects Gauquelin's claim, alleging justification through the committee's "model of the mechanism." The present paper scrutinizes the committee's model using a simpler data set to facilitate its intelligibility. It turns out that the committee's model is misconstructed. The Belgians' arguments resort to confused complexities through which apparent evidence for a Mars effect is dispelled. Gauquelin's early but insufficiently founded objections to the committee's critique now appear fully justified. The Belgian committee is urged to clarify persisting contradictions in the early history of its resistance to Gauquelin's discovery.

Keywords: Mars effect - planetary correlation - Gauquelin claim - skeptics - Comite Para

1. Introduction

Jean Dommanget, chairman of Comitk PARA (CP), the skeptical Belgian committee for the scientific investigation of claims of the paranormal, has given an account of the committee's early research into the Mars effect (1 968-1 976) and of a sequel to that work (Dommanget, 1997). Their research started with a replication of Gauquelin's Mars effect claim on a sample of 535 sports champions, through which Gauquelin's prediction found strong support. CP, however, eventually found problems with Gauquelin's Mars effect calculation, above all with expectancy (Committee PARA, 1976). This issue is of prime importance because the Mars effect is defined by a significant deviation of observed birth frequencies, partitioned across 12 diurnal Mars sectors, from corresponding expected birth frequencies.'

CP proposed "a model for the theoretical mechanism of the purported phenomenon" (p. 275). Their model, the Belgian critics allege, invalidates

More precisely, a planetary effect is defined by significantly deviating birth frequencies occurring while the planet occupies certain sectors, e.g., Mars sectors 1 and 4 on a 12-sector scale, for ComitC PARA'S experiment.

432 Suitbert Ertel

Gauquelin's expectancy calculations. If this were true, the Mars effect claim and all other planetary claims of the Gauquelins must be abandoned. A scrutiny of CP's position, as presented in Dommanget's account, is therefore ur- gent.

A note on the intelligibility of CP's model is prompted by Dommanget's repeated complaint that "misunderstandings have unfortunately occurred with nearly all ... authors who started studying this question. Many authors did not understand (or did not want to understand) ...[ our] position"2 (p. 279). Dom- manget should consider, however, aside from possible limitations of his readers, possible deficiencies of his own presentations. After wading through his puzzling text, after repeated queries addressed to him (to some of which he kindly replied), and after receiving answers to pertinent queries from others who labored through his a r t i ~ l e , ~ a review is now due. Novices in the field might welcome my clarification of elementary concepts.

Every test of an association between planetary positions and births of professionals requires expected birth frequencies along the planet's daily path, subdivided among planetary sectors 1 through 1 2 . ~ These serve as a reference to evaluate observed birth frequencies in individual sectors or sector zones (combinations of sectors). One broad consensus, encompassing both detrac- tors and supporters of the Mars effect, exists on the rationale underlying the necessary calculations: Expected birth frequencies must accommodate astronomical and demographic factors. These two sources of intrusive variance, not at first familiar to many readers, will become intelligible by using an easier to understand analogous problem invented for the purpose.

2. Astronomical Factors

The Gauquelin Approach

Suppose someone claims that eminent singers are more often born between sunrise and sunset than would be expected by chance. Doubt prompts us to test this claim, so we collect birth data (date and hour) of N = 535 singers. Note

Dommanget (1997) does not refer in his article to his correspondence with astronomer George Abell who apparently did understand CP's model and who was the first to discover certain flaws in it. Abell, in a letter to Dommanget, dated October 16, 1982, wrote, "I must say that I have read and reread your paper, and I think I understand it but am still perplexed about a matter, as I shall explain below."

I am grateful for Geoffrey Dean's, Ivan Kelly's, Ken Irving's, and Marcello Truzzi's suggestions for improvement.

~ u e to the earth's rotation-one turn in 24 hours-Mars seems to circle the earth. The planet's full circle of 24 hours, seen from, say, Brussels, can be divided into 12 sectors: six above and six below the horizon. For example, champion Jean de Bie was born in Brussels at 17h00, while Mars, seen from his birthplace, was in sector 9. Had de Bie been born at the same time (17h00), but 4 months later, he would have had Mars in sector 10. Another 4 months later, again at the same time, Mars would have been in sector 11, etc.

Bulky Mars Effect Hard to Hide 433

that the claim of our fictional interest refers to only two solar "sectors" (roughly day and night), instead of to 12 Mars sectors, as in CP's research on sports champions, which demands more attention.

What do we expect by chance? Depending on the calendar day, the sun can be above the horizon for periods of varying duration between very short, roughly 8 hours (winter minimum), and very long, 16 hours (summer maximum), assuming geographical latitude of 50 N. For each singer's birth date and location, we therefore need to know at what time the sun rose and set. This information is needed to calculate sun-above-horizon proportions for each individual birth date, i.e., the probability ,pup of the sun's presence above the horizon (subscript a for "astronomical" and up for "above horizon"):

hup is the difference between the sun's set and rise time on an hourly scale. Probabilities ,pup are diurnal (daily) proportions of sun-above-horizon periods. They vary, taking the above hup range 8 to 16 hours, between 0.33 (winter minimum) and 0.66 (summer maximum). For each singer's birth date, we obtain one sun-above-horizon proportion. Summing them over N = 535 birth date occurrences, we obtain the expected number of births with the sun above the horizon, a Nup.

The expected number of births with the sun below the horizon is simply a ATdown = 1 - a Nup. Equation 2 accommodates the astronomical factor (index a) arising in our project from the sun's season-dependent variation of its daily circle. Demographic complications are brought in be10w.~

Michel and Francoise Gauquelin's method to obtain expected birth frequencies for planetary sectors accommodates astronomical factors in the same way as our example, though using Mars, not the sun, and dividing the diurnal motion into 12 sectors, not two as in the case above. Critical as- tronomers and statisticians (Abell et al, 1982; Couderc, Porte, Rawlins, 1978), most of them members of skeptical committees, have approved of the Gauquelin procedure, in some cases after subjecting it to detailed scrutiny

In view of problems with CP's approach, to be discussed, it should be emphasized again that the total of expected births of a sample requires one probability for each individual of the sample.

Details on Gauquelin's algorithm are provided by Gauquelin and Gauquelin (1 957), Gauquelin (1 988a, p. 203-217), and Gauquelin (1988b).

434 Suitbert Ertel

CP's Approach

CP'S researchers, however, contest Gauquelin's rationale underlying his expectancy calculation. Their arguments are puzzling, and unraveling them requires space and time.

CP's model is based on a matrix, an arbitrary and unusual construction. The matrix comprises six rows and nine columns, i.e., n = (6) x (9) = 54 cells, whose entries are so-called configurations, tagged Ck (see their table 2, Dom- manget, 1997, p. 285). Configurations are frequencies of Mars in 54 combinations of Mars and Sun daily positions. They are calculated for the first of each month of the experimental period, i.e., for the 888 months making up 1872-1945.

Configuration, by the way, is a misleading term to denote what is actually a cell unit in the matrix, just as the term wall would be misleading to denote a brick.7 Readers become confused all the more because Dommanget occasionally uses the term configuration to denote the 12 sectors of the daily Mars circle (which is quite different from what is represented in table 2). In such cases, configuration would mean "the set of the twelve classes [class is Dom- manget's unusual term for sector]" for any particular date (Dommanget, 1997, p. 283).

Why did CP set up table 2 at all? We will postpone this question until we are through with all necessary technicalities.

Our understanding of Dommanget's table 2 is facilitated by creating an analogous table for the singers project. We follow his rules and sort all sun- above-horizon periods, observable within the time span 1872-1 945, into eight intervals (irrespective of whether the singers' birth dates actually occurred in the sun-above-horizon periods) starting with the shortest possible 1 -hour period 08h00-08h59, 09h00-09h59, etc. up to the longest, 15h00-15h59. Next, we partition each year of the observational period, 1872 - 1945 = 74 years, into 12 calendar months (January, February, March, etc.). A matrix of 8 rows (representing eight sun-above-horizon periods) by 12 columns (representing 12 months) is thus established, comprising n = (8) x (12) = 96 cell units Ck (k equals 1-96).

Next, following Dommanget, the cells of the matrix are filled with counts of days. One day from each month of the observation period is entered into the table; Dommanget selected the first of each month, so we follow suit. To give an example, on January 1,1872, the sun was 8h07 above the horizon (obtained from computer software or from an ephemeris), so we put 1 in the first column for January and first row for 8h00-8h59. The last entry is December 1, 1945 (column 12, December and row 1, 8h00-8h59 sun-above-horizon duration on January 1, 1945). The table eventually contains (1 2 ) x (74) = 888 days distrib-


uted among 96 Ck cells comparable to Dommanget's sample of 888 days, which in his case were distributed among 54 Ck cells. In Dommanget's table 2, Mars '-stay-in-sectors periods (rows) correspond to the sun-stay-above-hori- zonperiods of our singers table, and his Mars-Sun distances (columns) correspond to our months. To make the analogy more explicit, month may be roughly conceived as distance between the sun's present and its winter solstice position on the ecliptic. These technicalities are needed to understand the essentials of CP's procedure.

Table 2 of the singers study, when filled with day counts, shows that sun- above-horizon periods are longest in summer months and shortest in winter months with gradual changes between them. We are aware of seasonal variation, of course, without consulting this matrix.

Many people, however, are not aware of Mars' celestial motions. They will discover in table 2 of CP's study, when filled with day counts, that Mars-sector periods manifest lawful variation no less than the sun's "sector L" periods. That is, Mars, too, has "seasons," although roughly twice as long as solar seasons.

This might be interesting for novices in celestial motion. But how to get from here to expectancies for births in Mars sectors? CP's model, taking shape with their formula 6, was constructed to somehow transfer Ck counts onto sec- tored birth expectancies (Dommanget, 1997, p. 286). Their figure 5, a pictorial aid with many arrows, is introduced to make the intended transfer visually persuasive.

But this figure is puzzling, not persuasive, for three reasons. First, to arrive at expectancies for births in Mars sectors, there is no need to adopt CP's Ck statistics. In my view, which I share with CSICOP astronomer George bell,^ CP researchers are forcing superfluous data about celestial Mars movements on human birth expectations. Resuming the singers study, we can straightfor- wardly and safely state that the sun-above-horizon proportion, e.g., for May 2, 1903, when Bing Crosby was born (4 p.m., in Tacoma, Washington, at 47.14N, 122W26) is determined solely by sunrise and sunset in Tacoma on May 2, 1903. Secular (seasonal) changes of the sun's rise and set before and after Crosby's birth date, i.e., the day count statistics of Dommanget's table 2 over 74 years of observations, are entirely irrelevant for the sun-above-horizon period on Crosby's birth date and place. The same applies to Mars-in-sector pe-

g In one respect, Ck entries (day counts) for CP's champions project (Mars) differ from Ck entries

(day counts) for the singers project (sun): CP's Mars day counts in the champions project vary on the secular time scale: Analogous sun day counts for the singers project change within years only, not over the years. This, however, is of no account here.

Abell (in a letter to Truzzi, November 10, 1982) already pointed at the irrelevance ofpCk: "The pCk.. .is simply the probability of obtaining a particular configuration of Mars in the sky at the time of the athlete's birth. I think it may be relevant if one assumes a statistical average for Mars distributions, but not if the theoretical frequencies are calculated, as I have indicated in a letter to him."

436 Suitbert Ertel

riods and sports champions. CP's model, in a generalized perspective, amounts to a nonsensical claim, namely that effect Et, caused by Ct at calendar time t, is affected, aside from C , by Ca,. ..Ct-3, Ct-2, Ct-1, Ct+1, Ct+2, Ctlt3,. . . + Cz, i.e., by the entire time series ta through tz of continuous Ci occurrences, past and future, of which Ct is one temporal slice in the middle.

Second, understandably therefore, CP's model cannot be put into operation. The transferring device of their formula 6 is incomplete. It does not and cannot indicate how Ck-the information in their table 2-should be translated into expectancies. The arrows in Dommanget's figure 5 (1997) are misleading pictorial substitutes for a missing formalization, which in turn seems to be due to a confused conceptualization.

Third, we have shown above that calculations of expected birth frequencies for N = 535 champions must be based on Mars-in-sector durations for each champion's birth date. In CP's model, however, expressed by their formula 6, no link to those 535 individual birth date parameters exists (index i refers to sectors, index k to day counts of their table 2, there is no index for individuals):

For each of 12 sectors i, one probability pi is formalized by summing over 54 Ck-based probabilities instead of across 535 person-based probabilities.

What purpose does the expressionpi(Ck in CP's formula 6 serve?, Apparent- ly, it should bring k-indexed Ck-day counts and i-indexed Mars-sector observations together. But readers are not told to which observations pilCk refers, and they will hardly dare to question this construction, which Dommanget refers to as "well known" even though no one can have encountered an odd formula such as this one before. More discussion was needed to fully dissolve the intricacy. The main point is that in CP's model, no variable referring to N =

535 birth dates is provided on which, as pointed out above, expectancy calculations must be based. Whatever the model may be, N individual expectancies must be summed and they must add up to some value around 535112 = 44.5.

Why did CP ignore individual birth date information? Dommanget's answer to this brings deeper factors to light. He holds that a researcher who wants to "compute the theoretical histogramlo.. .is not allowed to make use of the sample itself" (Dommanget, 1997, p. 279). For him, using "the sample itself to establish the reference diagram [is a] disadvantage" (Dommanget, 1997, p. 292). This is the exact opposite of what proper methodology demands: Pertinent information obtained from the sample itself--i.e., from each

lo ~ o m m a n ~ e t ' s terms "theoretical histogram" and "model of the mechanism" sound substantive and significant, yet they are ambiguous. Replacing "theoretical histogram" with "expectancies" increases conceptual precision.


individual in the sample-is neither a disadvantage nor an advantage, rather it is an indispensable source of reference. Expectancies are required for an actual sample and not, say, for the entire world population. This goes without saying among experts calculating expectancies, whether by randomization, Monte Carlo, or by bootstrapping procedures, etc. Being based on misconceived statistical presumptions, CP's model is not appropriate to accommodate birth-related astronomical factors.

3. Demographic Factors

The Gauquelin Approach

Aside from astronomical variance (a ) , the average variance of birth frequencies over hours of a day (d) must be considered: People are not born with uniform frequency day and night. Hourly birth rates for natural births generally peak before sunrise, decline during the daylight hours and are lowest in the afternoon.

This so-called demographic or d factor, however, is easily accounted for with the help of average diurnal birth counts, occasionally called nycthemeral distributions. Let us use the distribution of ordinary people from Gauquelin studies (No, = 24,6 14)" and calculate from them expected birth rates as needed. For our-simplified singers example, the question in need of an answer for each birth is this: Which proportion of a day's general birth output is obtained between the time of sunrise and sunset occurring on the subject's birth date? This is the demographic birth proportion required to adjust the astronomical birth proportion as explained above.

We proceed as follows. Above we obtained, for Bing Crosby's birth date May 2, 1903, a sun-above-horizon proportion of ,p = 0.60. On that day, the sun rose at 5:53 a.m. and set at 8:18 p.m. Next, we take birth counts of ordinary people, i.e., for the time section between 5:53 a.m. and 8:18 p.m. (sun- above-horizon considerations are here irrelevant), and find that this temporal section contains 59.5% of the total. Thus, the probability for a person to be born on May 2, 1903, with the sun above the horizon was .~dp = 0.595. In a similar fashion, just as for Crosby's birth date, we obtain .ldp values for each singer of our sample. The expected number of births with the sun above the horizon, demographic condition adjusted, is obtained analogous to Equation

The expected number of sun-below-horizon births is simply aldNdown = N -

'' The Gauquelins collected the data for their so-called heredity studies attempting to test possible similarities of planetary positions between parents and their offspring.

438 Suitbert Ertel

oidNup. Equation 2 considered astronomical factors only while Equation 3 takes into account astronomical and demographic factors. Equation 2 served merely as a didactic first step.

We have made it clear how Gauquelin's expectancy algorithm works in principle, using singers and two simple solar-sector expectations. For sports champions and 12 Mars-sector expectations, the same principle applies. Addi- tional complications are few and can be passed over here.12

CP 's Approach

How does CP's "model of the mechanism" accommodate demographic factors? Surprisingly, this model (their formula 6) ignores demographic conditions. This is puzzling because Dommanget (1 997) actually refers, in passing at least, to "taking into account the nycthemeral distribution" (p. 285). He seems to make readers believe that demographic variation has been incorporated into the model. He even refers to Gauquelin's nycthemeral birth curve (Dommanget, 1997, figure 4) as ifCP's formula would account for it, but it does not.

Moreover, remember that Dommanget's main objection to Gauquelin's algorithm points at allegedly wrong demographic assumptions, not wrong astronomical assumptions, i.e., CP objects to the neglect in Gauquelin's algorithm of secular inconstancies of the diurnal birth rhythm.

But on close inspection, one finds that CP's criticism of Gauquelin's demographic assumptions does not result from their formalized model. Rather it is a mere verbal patch to cover a hole in what CP is really saying. In view of CP's verbalized concern with demographic factors, no one would expect that these factors are entirely neglected in their own formula. Dommanget's summary of CP's position turns the facts upside down: "[CP established] a model for the theoretical mechanism of the purportedphenomenon. [From this analysis,] it clearly appears that the theoretical principles proposed by Gauquelin to support his research have to be rejected because they do not correctly take into account the fundamentals of the problem-the secular and diurnal sociodemographic factors " (Dommanget, 1997, p. 275f). However, CP's "theoretical mechanism" cannot logically provide any grounds to reject Gauquelin's procedure. The reason is that it is unrelated to sociodemographic factors.

Can CP's "only correct formula" (Dommanget, 1997, p. 290) be put to a test? This is a reasonable question, and a straightforward response would be to just test its expectancy output. Yet, here we encounter an astounding deficien- cy. An expectancy output from CP's formula has never been provided, despite early and repeated demands, especially by Gauquelin (1982): "He [Dom-

l 2 Unfortunately, Dommanget's account of the Gauquelin procedure is as unintelligible as that of his CP procedure.


manget] should publish his own theoretical ... distribution, [but] he never did so" (p. 77). Dommanget, when challenged by such demands, used to object that expectancy computations are "unfortunately impossible," since according to CP's model, all factors contributing to diurnal birth curve variation must be considered, but that somelmany factors are "unknown" (Dommanget, 1997, p. 294).

But we may simplify the test by creating a fictitious sample without any diurnal birth curve variation, assuming that birth frequencies are evenly distributed over 24 hours of the day and that no secular variation occurs. What is the expectancy output of CP's "only correct formula" for the simplest of all con- ceivable conditions? There is no such output. CP's formula manifests its use- lessness convincingly under most favorable test conditions. l 3

CP's Main Objection to Gauquelin's Demographic Conception

CP was concerned that observed birth peaks on a Mars-sector scale might be due to secular variation of diurnal birth distributions. It must be conceded that such demographic artifacts, even though improbable, are at least conceiv- able. The CP's concern over them does not logically result from their model, but one may look at them regardless. So I checked CP's claim, but on close examination of their criticism of secular variation, I did not find any evidence for it. In contrast, elementary logic and empirical facts contradict it, as is shown in what follows.

First, recall the Gauquelin claim that whenever deviations of birth counts from chance occur, they invariably do so in key sectors 1 (rise of the planet) and 4 (culmination), irrespective of planet (Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Moon, etc.) and profession (champions, actors, physicians, etc.). CP's suspicion that Gauquelin planetary effects might be due to secular demographic variation thus implies the contradiction that invariable deviations of birth counts in invariable sectors arose from variable and unpredictable demographic causes. This is like claiming that weekly maxima of accident cycles on Saturdays were due to weather factors. No doubt, the weather is known to affect accident occurrences, but its influence for particular weekdays is entirely unpredictable.

The second argument is empirical. Dommanget, aside from ignoring constancies of birth frequencies for Mars sectors 1 and 4, tried to emphasize inconstancies of birth frequencies over Mars sectors 1 to 12. He used his figures

l 3 Dommanget (1997) attempts another way out of CP's dilemma: "It is surprising that nobody seems to be aware of the need for computing the theoretical histogram" (p. 290). However, Abell computed a theoretical histogram (expectancies) in 1982 (Dommanget received the result by letter), Gauquelin published more than a dozen volumes of data including expectancies, and Miiller, Ertel, CFEPP, Nienhuys, and Pottenger computed expectancies that agreed quite well with one another. Dommanget is aware of at least some of these successful efforts. CP is the only party not providing expectancies. Dommanget thus turns crucial facts upside down, thereby misleading inattentive readers and puzzling attentive readers.

440 Suitbert Ertel

9 through 11 to demonstrate how the distribution of births over Mars sectors varied over the years. In his figure 9, e.g., we find a breakdown of birth rates over Mars sectors for three successive secular periods. From eyesight, Dom- manget (1997) concludes that "there is a dependency of the results from the secular sociodemography" (p. 290), meaning that (a) over secular periods, birth frequencies for Mars sectors are inconstant, and (b) this is caused by corresponding secular variation of daily birth distributions.

Dommanget's focus is on Claim 1 only, the alleged effect. He does not consider Claim 2, the alleged cause, which is a remarkable omission. Worse, he actually fails with both claims, as shown in Figures l a and b. Figure l a represents birth rates of CP champions on the Mars-sector scale after a breakdown of the total into Dommanget's three successive cohorts. His figure 9 (Dom- manget, 1997, p. 291) showed the same three curves, though side by side and small, which impedes perceiving invariant features. Such features manifest themselves clearly by an overlay display, as in Figure la: Peaks in Mars key sector 1 are invariably predominant. The synchrony of key sector 4 peaks is also present, although less conspicuously. More to the point, the three birth count distributions are significantly correlated among each other (by Spear- man's rank correlation rs ):

In view of the smallness of the three subsamples, each subdivided over 12 sectors (leaving on the average circa 15 champions per sectorial unit), the indication of stability in Figure 1 a is remarkable.

Dommanget did not calculate such correlations, and what he did instead actually veils them. For his figure 10 (p. 29 I), he doubled the subdivisions of the same data (using six cohorts instead of the three of his figure 9), thus throwing even more random noise into his readers' eyes, with no additional information provided.

As noted above, Dommanget claims that Mars-sector variation (the alleged effect) is due to diurnal birth time variation (the alleged cause), but he did not actually investigate the latter. Making up for this neglect, we show pertinent results in Figure lb. For the three Dommanget cohorts, birth frequencies are plotted over time of the day. Dommanget would predict that variation of birth rates over time of the day is more marked than variation of birth rates over Mars-sector position, because causal oscillations should be stronger than ef- fected oscillations.

Figure lb, compared with Figure la, however, does not bear this out. Birth

+ Fig. 1 Birth counts of CP's athletes, separately for three CP-defined successive cohorts,

(a) across 12 Mars sectors, (b) across 12 daytime periods.

Bulky Mars Effect Hard to Hide

e- Cohort 1 e ----. Cohort 2 0 ....... Cohort 3

t Rise

t t t Culmi- s t Lowr nation Culmin.

Mars sector

(b) 30 - Cohort 1 ----. Cohort 2 3 ....... Cohort 3 ;:

;:

Time of the day

442 Suitbert Ertel

rate variation is smaller, not larger, for hours of the day (Figure lb) than for Mars-sector position (Figure la). It is inconceivable that a strong effect (represented by ragged Mars-diurnal (sector) distributions with large peaks and troughs) could ever result from a weak cause (a smooth solar-diurnal distribution). Only one of 3 x 12 = 36 counts is conspicuous, a statistical fluke probably. Dommanget (1997) concluded, again from mere eyesight, not from mea- surement, that there exists a "dependency of the shape of the histogram [births over Mars sectors] on the secular distribution of the births dates." This, he concludes, "confirms the role of the secular sociodemography" (p. 294). Fig- ures l a and b show that his conclusion is wrong. The evidence leads to the opposite conclusion.

4. Missing Result: Expected Birth Frequencies

As noted above, CP's work of 1967-1997 did not culminate in the publication of expectancies. Surprisingly, however, as early as 1970, before inventing their "model of the mechanism," CP actually did calculate expectancies using a widely accepted method. However, they did not publish these results. In his "rough historical sketch," Dommanget skipped this period of CP's intensive research. Why did he leave this out?

Let us first look at CP's unpublished expectancies (see Figure 2). The solid line in Figure 2 shows, first, observed birth rates of CP's champions. Full circles represent CP's expected birth rates. These were obtained by shifting the birth time from each actual champion to the next in line when listed alphabeti- cally. Birth year, month, and day remained unchanged. Full circles in Figure 2 represent the average sector positions of nine such successive shifts. They are taken from an unpublished Dommanget document. l4

CP's expectancies in Figure 2 may be compared with expectancies obtained by Gauquelin's classical technique (explained above). This technique yields birth rates of a fictional control group whose size equals that of the experimental sample (small open circles). Small open triangles represent expectancies obtained by using another strategy. Expectancies were here obtained by summing sector positions of ordinary people (averages of a noneminent population). Ordinary people may be regarded as a genuine control sample, which, however, is much larger than the experimental (champions) sample. (The Zelen test method is more precise, but of the same kind.) It can be seen that expectancies by CP's shifting procedure hardly differ from those obtained by the two other methods.15

l4 Source Dommanget, "Tableau extrait d'une note de M. Dommanget," 1970, an unpublished appendix of a letter by de MarrC, a copy of which was transmitted to Gauquelin, Hoebens, Hovelmann, and Ertel.

l 5 CP's randomized expectancies show larger variance than the other two, which apparently indicates that nine randomizations are insufficient for obtaining an average curve as reliable estimate. The CFEPP ran 80 randomizations; Ertel, 200.


Observed: Comite PARA athletes (N=535) - -c- - Expected 1 : Gauquelin's standard calculation . ..Am- Expected 2: Gauquelin ordinary people (N=24,614) 4 Expected 3: Cornite PARA'S randomizations of their data

t t t t Rise Culmi- Set Lower

nation Culmin.

Mars sector Fig. 2 Observed birth counts (%) of CP's athletes across 12 Mars sectors and pertinent expectan-

cies, CP's unpublished ones included.

The Mars effect controversy is certainly worth being settled and CP could help at that by clarifying the following details of their investigation:

1. In his paper, Dommanget (1997) contends that the results of CP's randomization experiments, counterexperiments using his terminology, "were ready for publication in the years 1977-1 978 in our N.B. No. 44" (p. 292). But documents exist showing that Dommanget had tabulated the results of these experiments already by 1970.16 CP member Luc de Marre expressly confirms this in a letter to Kurtz (November 8, 1975). He informs Kurtz that the counterexperiments were conducted "be-

l6 The table was attached as a copy of a letter (April 2 1, 1975) by CP's member Luc de Marre addressed to Jean Dath, chairman of CP at that time.

444 Suitbert Ertel

tween 1967 and 1970." De Marrk complained that "during three years [1970-19731, the PARA committee refuses to publish the results of this investigation," and he resigned from the committee in protest.

2. According to Dommanget (1997), CP's counterexperiments "were conducted by PARA.. .on the basis of its theoretical conception of theprob- lem [italics added]" (p. 292). This is puzzling for two reasons: First, as just noted, the counterexperiments were conducted right after CP's data collection in 1968. Their theoretical model was developed later, around 1973-1975 (de Marrk). CP's experiments thus cannot have been conducted on the basis of CP's "theoretical conception of the problem." Second, following Dommanget, CP's theoretical conception of the mechanism contradicts the assumptions on which their own counterexperiments are based, i.e., CP's own experiments have "the disadvantage of using the sample itself to establish the reference diagram" (Dom- manget, 1997, p. 292). Even on logical, not only temporal grounds, therefore, the committee's model cannot have served as the basis for their counterexperiments.

3. The results of CP's counterexperiments, which were "ready for publication in 1978 (N.B. No. 44)," were not published, according to Dom- manget (1997), "because no one seemed to accept our analysis of what was needed to understand these experiments" (p. 292). However, the French skeptics (CFEPP), Nienhuys, and Ertel, all used the CFEPP's early technique independently without any consideration of the CP model of 1976. An acceptance of this model is not needed for understanding and applying their procedure of 1970.

4. According to Dommanget (1997), research on secular variation (shown in his figures 9 through 11) was part of the CFEPP's "research conducted since 1976" and this "was not communicated to anyone" earlier because "they would have needed an understanding of the mechanism of formation of the histogram expressed by our model" (p. 289). Eventual- ly in 1997, while publishing this research, Dommanget apparently credits his readership with somehow understanding their difficult mechanism.

But why does this author still exempt from publication the results of those counterexperiments of 1968-1970? We were told that they had not been published because, in a similar vein, the CP deemed the public to be too uninformed to understand them. But now, although crediting the present readership with being capable of understanding CP's idea of secular variation, Dommanget withholds the results of CP's counterexperiments, which in 1976 became model inconsistent. Can anyone be blamed for gaining the impression that CP swept its model-inconsistent results of 1970 under the carpet, concerned over a possible detection?

Dommanget should be prepared to dissolve the above contradictions and make all pertinent facts transparent. This would be in keeping with his own


philosophy of science, because he contends that "the committee is only interested in seeing science progressing on a firm, stable, and rocky basis, whoever could be right" (Dommanget, 1982b, p. 66).

5. Conclusion

Dommanget (1982a), in published and unpublished Mars effect disputes, often challenged researchers either to accept the Belgian committee's model or to "indicate without possible doubt.. . on which precise point this analysis could appear erroneous" (p. 74). Our scrutiny of CP's work has revealed quite a few points of error. The conclusions to be drawn from those flaws have been anticipated by previous authors, to whom due credit is given in what follows:

1975: R. Chauvin (professor of biology at Sorbonne, in a letter to J. R. Dath, April 2 1, 1975, then chairman of CP) said, "I conclude:

You did observe the same significant results as M. Gauquelin.. . You did not calculate the theoretical expectancies.. . Your counterexperiment apparently removes the two main objections that you raised to Gauquelin's method."

In 1975, L. de Marrk (just-resigned member of CP, in a letter to Kurtz, No- vember 8, 1975) said, "It looks as if the committee's majority, conducted by its president, were seeking, under pseudoscientific pretexts, to hide a fact that they themselves have verified.. .: the relation existing between Mars and the champions."

In 1982, G. Abell of CSICOP, U.S. skeptics, astronomer, in a letter to M. Truzzi (July 2 1, 1982) said, "I admit that I cannot understand CP's [negative] points about [Gauquelin's] expected distribution in light of the [positive] results of the Zelen test [data comparable to Gauquelin's ordinary people data]. I think they [CP's objections] are just wrong."

In 1982, M. Gauquelin wrote, "Why did Dommanget never publish his own expected.. . [birth] frequencies? Many people asked him, too. [His]. . . answer: 'Such calculations.. .were never done.. .it is impossible.' The so-called mathematical model.. . was created to hide the Mars effect and to mislead the general reader" (p.68). l7

1998: J. W. Nienhuys (Dutch skepter): Nienhuys considers possible variation of theoretical expectancies, as might occur by Dommanget's secular factors, as minimal ("unimportant") (here visualized in Figure lb) in view of

l7 For me, it is surprising that Gauquelin did not look deeper into CP's misconceived model. His position would have been considerably stronger had he demonstrated its absurdity in detail. Abell made the first unraveling steps, which Gauquelin missed to continue. Dommanget's note to Truzzi on Septem- ber 20, 1982, was apparently true: "We know that M. Gauquelin never understood the real significance of what we call thepCk9' Understandingpck means piercing an absurdity veiled by some stupefying for- malism.

446 Suitbert Ertel

those large ups and downs of observed key sector frequencies, as were manifest in the data of the Belgian committee (see Figure la). Nienhuys' own reservation about the Mars effect has different grounds (Wunder, 1998, p. 82).

1998: E. Wunder (German skeptics GWUP): "An answer to the question whether the Mars effect does or does not exist does not necessarily presuppose the solving of the theoretical problem brought forward by Proffessor Dom- manget [S.E.'s translation]" (Wunder, 1998, p. 82).

The CP's approach has in fact never been endorsed by anyone, not even by skeptical committees outside Belgium. The present review aimed to show in hindsight, and in detail, why the above-quoted reactions were justified. Nev- ertheless, CP's Mars effect research, as well as efforts by other skeptical committees on this issue, should be acknowledged. Their continuous resistance to the Mars effect claim has challenged rigorous tests by Gauquelin, Miiller, and Ertel (see Ertel, 1998, 1999; Ertel and Irving, this issue). The planetary anomaly, if it were due to mere imagination, would certainly have disappeared under such scrutiny, but it did not disappear. For readers entering this arena for the first time, the dynamics of this controversy might be helpful to understand the challenge of this phenomenon, which deserves extensive research in the future.

References

Abell, G. O., Kurtz, P., & Zelen, M. (1982). The Abell-Kurtz-Zelen 'Mars effect' experiments: A response. Skeptical Inquirer, 7(3), 77-82.

Committee PARA. (1976). Considkrations critiques sur une recherche faite par M. M. Gauquelin dans le domaine des influence planktaires. Nouvelles Brkves, 43,327.

Dommanget, J. (1982a). Comments on Patrick Curry's research on the Mars effect. Zetetic Schol- ar, 9,73-74.

Dommanget, J. (1982b). On the Mars effect. A last answer to M. Gauquelin. Zetetic Scholar, 10, 66.

Dommanget, J. (1995). Personal communication. Dommanget, J. (1997). The "Mars effect" as seen by the committee PARA. Journal of Scientific

Exploration, 11(3), 275-295. Ertel, S. (1992). Mars effect survives critique of Dutch skeptics. In Nienhuys, J. W. (Ed.), Science

or Pseudo? The Mars effect and other claims: Proceedings of the third EuroSkeptics congress (pp. 185-203). Utrecht: Skepsis.

Ertel, S. (1998199). Is there no Mars effect? Correlation, 17, 4-23. Ertel, S., & Irving, K. (2000). The Mars effect is genuine. On Kurtz, Nienhuys & Sandhu's miss-

ing the evidence. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 14, 42 1-430. Gauquelin, M. (1982). A reply to the statement of committee PARA. Zetetic Scholar, 10, 75-77. Gauquelin, M. (1988a). Written in the stars. Wellingborough, U K : Aquarian Press. Gauquelin, M. (1988b). Is there a Mars effect? Journal of Scientific Exploration, 2(1), 29-52. Gauquelin, M.F., & Gauquelin, M. (1957). Mkthodes pour ktudier la &partition des astres dans le

mouvement diurne LERRCP, Paris. Rawlins, D. (1 978). Memorandum on the relation of Mars' solar proximity to Michel Gauquelin's

Mars-sports results and claims. Phenomena, 2.3-2.4, 22. Wunder, E. (1998). Reply to Prof. Dommanget's letter to the editor. Skeptiker, 11(2), 82.

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 447454,2000 0892-33 10/00 0 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

ESSAY

What Has Science Come to?

Max-Planck-Institut fur Astrophysik 0-85740 Garching bei Miinchen, Germany

Abstract-Some criticisms of the fundamental processes in modern science are made. They are illustrated by references to examples over a range of different fields.

Keywords: science - religion - enlightenment

Introduction

Fifty years ago, one could hardly avoid falling into a heated argument on whether science and religion were compatible. Today, that is a dead subject. As a scientist, I just assumed people had come to realize that science is what works and religion was based on myths and guesses. But now an astonishing realization has begun to dawn on me-religion has prevailed! Science has become religion!

Let me quickly add that this is not the view of the influential establishments of science and religion. The two, as Stephen Jay Gould (1 999) proclaims in his new book Rocks of Ages, represent "a respectful noninterference-accompanied by intense dialogue between two distinct subjects." Another recent book about religion, however, gives the game away in its title: Seduced by Science (Goldberg, 1999).

The point this latter book misses, however, is that although religion may have borrowed some of the jargon of science, science, more importantly, has adopted the methods of religion. This is the worst of both worlds. Rather than going on at length about how both approaches to enlightenment are correct, it would be more useful to explore why both are so incorrect!

Of course, there is a questioning, exploring side to both science and religion, which in the beginning was vital to humanity, but what most people accept today as fundamental scientific knowledge is barely distinguishable from what organized religion became some centuries ago. The fatal part of the latter was dogma unsupported by replicable experiment. The most damaging aspect of science today is widely promulgated theories that are contradicted by observation and experiment. In both cases, a story is mandated by authority and then defended by educational, economic, and sociopolitical agencies.

448 Halton Arp

Some Examples of False Premises

Of course science claims to be based on facts and that contending theories must rise and fall as new evidence emerges, but the changes tend to be extrav- agantly hyped variations based on the same unquestioned basic assumptions. Let us examine for a moment the current all-encompassing science of cosmology, i.e., the physics of the universe. The big bang theory proclaims that the whole universe created itself instantly out of nothing. I believe there are many observations by now that disprove this, but even supposing for a moment it were true, would it be essentially different from the religious belief that God created the universe at some time in the past? Does calling the event "faster than light inflation" explain any more than calling it a miracle? In fact, scientists seem to have borrowed heavily from the religious concept of "immacu- late conception." The Vatican has supported the big bang theory since they alertly sense a place for a "creator." And when Stephen Hawking solves the riddle of "How did the laws of physics by which the universe was formed exist before it was formed?" by saying, "They existed in imaginary time," he might just as well have said, "Any information content in that statement is purely imaginary-I don't know any more than the church does!"

Creationism and Science Education?

One of the crusades of academic science is against religious creationism. Periodically there arises a messianic need to save the general public from the ignorant belief that humans were created in their present form some short time ago, say, 8,000 years or so. They should blush with shame. Their big bang cosmology, aside from a small quibble about timescales, is the most blatant form of creationism. The claim is that not just humans but the whole universe was created instantaneously out of nothing.

Many scientists are outraged that the Kansas Board of Education has banned the big bang theory, but they overlook the point that it was brought on by their own efforts to ban religious creationism; as in most religious wars, they tried to ban the heretic beliefs. As for Darwinian evolution, they did not see that it was not a valid theory until it confronted openly the opposing claims.

The essence of true education has been mutilated by all three participants in this sorry spectacle. Academic science fails for trying to ban religious creationism, religious creationism for trying to ban evolution theory, and big bang creationism and the board of education for trying to ban discussion of the whole subject. Only if evidence and arguments on all sides are discussed can students make up their own mind what is the most likely truth-probably something quite different from that of any of the current partisans.

More Sacred Oxymorons

Another example of a basic premise that is self contradictory is "dark matter." Because extragalactic astronomy interprets all redshifts as velocities, it

What Has Science Come to? 449

has to invent huge quantities of invisible matter to explain all the supposed motions that are observed. Never mind that some scientists have shown the postulated dark matter cannot account for rotations, the only redshifts that are certainly velocity. Never mind that the remaining large redshifts have been argued to be nonvelocity, and never mind that the supposed dark matter has never been detected. Nevertheless, enormous research projects are funded on the assumption that more than 90% of the universe is unobservable. This vio- lates the basic definition of science, namely that it deals with the relation of real observations to each other. Most citizens stopped describing angels some centuries ago.

But consider the most fundamental precept that underlies modern science: gravity. Let us ask a few simple-minded questions about this force: It is supposed to be a force that attracts one body to another, but how does the sun pull on the earth and vice versa? Are there invisible elastic bands pulling them together? Does the exchange of electromagnetic particles cause a force pulling them together rather than giving them an impulse apart, as one might expect?

Obviously, gravity acts much faster than the speed of light; otherwise, the earth would be orbiting around a point where the sun was 8 minutes ago. But in the simplified pantheon of scientific saints, Einstein said that information cannot be communicated faster than the speed of light. So he resorted to having masses "curve space." Bodies ran on invisible, prefixed tracks in space, but how can you curve nothing?

Over 100 years ago, a physicist named Le Sage pointed out that a universal sea of faster-than-light particles (or wave particles, for generality), by pushing on all bodies, would produce essentially the same equations as that of "attractive" Newtonian gravity. Gone are the complexities of multidimensional space-time that renders general Relativity comprehensible to only a chosen few.

Did someone mention observational tests? Over the last third of a century, it has turned out that extragalactic objects are not necessarily rushing away from each other in an expanding universe. The observations indicate that new galaxies are being continually created. If they are created from low-mass particles and evolve into normal-mass galaxies, then their early redshifts are not indicative of high-recession velocity but instead indicate that matter composed of low-mass, young particles emits weak, redshifted photons (Arp, 1999).

In 1977 the Indian astrophysicist, Jayant Narlikar, showed there was a more general solution to the field equations of general relativity. This yields intrin- sic redshifts directly as a function of the age of the object-in agreement with empirical observations. Mathematically, it is a transform of the usual special solution that describes our small sample of space and time. But physically, in cosmological realms, it is nonexpanding, continually creating, and indefinite- ly large-totally opposite the current big bang paradigm.

The solution is very simple and requires no space geometry (Riemannian) terms. Those very complicated terms are no longer needed to fit the observa-

450 Halton Arp

tions. General relativity turns out to be a local theory. The simpler underlying theory is driven by communication of all parts of the universe with all other parts (per the conclusions of Ernst Mach, another 19th-century physicist and philosopher). There are no "singularities" where physics "breaks down," as plagues the present theory. The fundamental property of matter is its age (how much of the universe it has communicated with). That determines the rate at which its clocks run (another way of saying what its redshift is). Space is obviously filled with wave particles (ether, if you will), but it is not sensible to give them coherent geometric properties.

Certainty in Science

The alternative interpretations I have sketched above may seem outrageous to anyone schooled in currently accepted physics. Moreover, because my major criticism of today's science is that it is impossibly authoritarian, I cannot claim that these new ways of understanding the observations are, with any certainty, correct. The major reason for my advancing them is to demonstrate that there are possible ways of simply and rigorously connecting the data that are enormously different from the currently obligatory theory.

The usual establishment excuse that "there is no other possible way of explaining the observations" simply cannot be used to prop up a theory that has been devastated by the empirical evidence. The only thing we can be certain of is that the old theory has been disproved. New working hypotheses such as those I have outlined above can be tried, modified, and perhaps, inevitably, discarded completely. Theory is only an attempt to simplify the connection between currently known facts. The prime responsibility of science is to keep in mind that there is never certainty and the most important obligation is to keep testing the fundamental assumptions.

Suppression of Evidence

The most harmful aspect of what science has become is the deliberate attempt to hide evidence that contradicts the current paradigm. Most scientists give ritual obeisance to the dictum that "one can never prove a theory, only disprove it." In a quite human fashion, however, they act in an exactly opposite manner-judging that "if an observation disagrees with what we know to be correct, then it must be wrong."

The tradition of "peer review" of articles published in professional journals has degenerated into almost total censorship. Originally, a reviewer could help an author improve his article by pointing out errors in calculation, references, clarity, etc., but scientists, in their fervid attachment to their own theories, have now mostly used their selection as a referee to reject publication of any result that would be unfavorable to their own personal commitment. The intensity of the feelings involved can be judged by the frequent recourse to personal invective in the reports to the editor (which the editors, joining in the

What Has Science Come to? 45 1 ,

spirit, pass on to the authors). The only comparable interaction I have heard of is the passionate wars between different religious doctrines of past centuries.

The press, of course, only reports news from established academic centers that have a strong financial and prestige interest in glorifying the status quo. The result is that real investigative science is mostly now an underground activity. Independent, often self-supported researchers are publishing in private- ly supported, small-circulation journals. It is difficult to say whether "big science," like the medieval church, will slowly erode in influence over many generations, or whether there will be a sudden rebellion with scandal and cor- ruption being reported by investigative journalists.

The Humanities Fail to Counterattack I One characteristic of an institution that has long gone unchallenged is arro-

gance. The physical sciences manifest this quality particularly toward the social sciences or the humanities, scathingly referred to as the "soft sciences." A few years ago, the now famous "Sokal hoax" (Sokal, 1996; Sokal & Bricmont, 1998) was initiated. An article intended to be nonsense was cast in pseudoso- cial-science jargon and accepted in a humanities journal. After the hoax was exposed, it was heralded as proof of the unrigorous character of the social sciences.

It is undeniable that there is a pervasive use in all of academia of complex, specialized terms, which when examined do not yield much significance. It should be challenged wherever possible. For example, Serge Lang, a mathe- matician and member, has in the past challenged puffery by social scientist members of the National Academy of Sciences, but conversely the nonphysical sciences should not pass by the opportunity to criticize a much greater breach of rigor in the "hard sciences." After all, to get the whole universe totally wrong in the face of clear evidence for over 75 years merits monumental embarrassment and should induce a modicum of humility. It is not enough for deconstructionists to complain that our culture is dominated by dead white men. The important point is that the dominators (at least the ones generally revered in the hard sciences) got it completely demonstrably wrong.

Consider at this moment, e.g., the pinnacle of modern physics: String Theo- ry. From an article in the Los Angeles Times of November 16, 1999, we can select a few dazzling quotes.

Famous physicists from the Institute of Advanced Study in Princeton: "Space and time may be doomed" and "time can be extinguished like a blown- out flame."

From Columbia University: "Strings are shards of space and time." From the Institute for Theoretical Physics: "Where are we? When are we?" And finally: "Today's physicists are in possession of what may well be the

Holy Grail of modern science." If I stand back a little from this, it sounds like a religious frenzy-like

speaking in tongues. Where is the hard rebuttal from the postmodernists, and

452 Halton Arp

perhaps most important of all, the analytical criticism and discussion from the generalists? Is it not time to move on from partisan authority to open-minded, sensible curiosity?

Medical Science and Biology

At first sight, the biological sciences would seem to be immune to plunging off the track with invalid paradigms. After all, the experiments are easily repeatable and either they work or they do not work. But the cutting edge of research passes through academia. Some very bad mistakes occur. For example, the problem of how AIDS arose in humans.

In the 1950s, polio vaccines were grown in kidney-cell cultures from monkeys. They were administered to massive numbers of people in central Africa around 1955. Some years later AIDS, caused by viruses present in certain types of monkeys, began to decimate African peoples and soon spread around the world.

It has taken over 44 years for science to discuss the probable cause of AIDS, as due to using cross-species cellular material as a substrate for live viral vaccines. The evidence began to be clear 10 years ago (Cribb, 1996; Curtis, 1992; Hooper, 1990, 1999) but was not discussed in the preeminent interdisciplinary science journals such as Science and Nature. Toward the end, there were dep- recatory references to some "scientifically implausible" theories and once the monkey viruses were inescapably identified, detailed scenarios of the African people eating "bush meat" (monkeys) as an explanation for the (sudden) epi- demic (Hahn et al., 2000).

It should not require prominent expertise to face the fact that various . species carry viruses to which they are immune, but which can be deadly to

other species. Is it permissible to simply say, as Hooper quotes one investigator of that time, "We were acting in full innocence, not understanding what sort of Pandora's box we were opening?" Is it permissible to give another human being a substance and say, "Here take this, scientific knowledge has established that it will protect you from debilitating and anguishing disease?" In the course of events, something more seems now to be called for.

Physics in Action

One might think that theoretical physics, that realm of what people think reality is, cannot do much practical harm. Wrong. Beyond the invention of race- threatening bombs, there is the trying out on human beings of naive experiments and ill-thought-out products, which if given a moment of common sense reflection, would have revealed the possibility of truly horrible personal consequences. The Plutonium Files by Eileen Welsome (1999) is the latest in a now long list of accounts of how radioactive substances were tested by the government, the military, and scientists on unsuspecting subjects. Welsome's personal accounts of the victims make the incidents poignantly real.

What Has Science Come to? 453

Of course, everyone who builds a device to improve the lot of mankind knows it may be used by some to do great damage. But it seems to me that the guardians of fundamental knowledge, the universities and research institutes, could set a much better example of responsible testing of their theories and public announcements. Most graduates of top-ranked research departments have unfortunately been treated to an ongoing spectacle of prominent personalities publicizing their own theories while ignoring or suppressing obvious observational disproofs. Getting the answer that will do the investigator the most good is not necessarily the answer that will do the society the most good. There are well-known departments that are almost completely preoccupied with personal issues of tenure and competition but where the real issue is whether there is any professional competence.

Psycho-Science

Sometimes it is better to just sleep through a whole era of scientific ad- vance. In November 1999, I encountered a news note that brain researchers were having second thoughts. It seems that for decades, they had been measur- ing electrical activity in various regions of the brain and had come to the conclusion that the Freudian psychoanalysis was wrong. There was no activity in parts that should have supplied stimuli while dreaming!

But now, they had measured again, and in different parts, and announced that they were not so sure of their original conclusion. Imagine, more than a century of comparison and study of carefully recorded subconscious and conscious human states had been overturned by needle twitches. Then psychoanalysis had been reinstated (maybe)-and I had been blissfully unaware of the whole drama.

The Way It Began and How It Could Be

The great irony is that both science and religion started as legitimate inquiries into the nature of existence. The earliest impulse of beings must have been to observe. Religion noted the inside feelings and dreams. But probably some of the feelings were misunderstood fears, disguised images, and illu- sions, which then became institutionalized by charismatic personalities. Sci- ence, on the other hand, tried to record events objectively. But perhaps similar subconscious assumptions crept in and influenced all subsequent interpretations. Again, as science organized, authority figures became associated with the "laws" they were credited with discovering.

Organized religion succeeded in killing a great number of people down through the ages on issues that were labeled "belief and heresy" but were probably more fundamentally concerned with personal profit and power. Sci- ence has arisen some centuries later in less bloody societies but has killed and delayed many new ideas and discoveries and has made many mistakes, for perhaps basically the same reasons.

454 Halton Arp

What do we do now? Perhaps community-based organizations such as the Unitarian or Quaker churches, which are almost absent theoretical dogma but instead concentrate on useful service to a society of real people, is the most desirable direction. Perhaps it is necessary to discover morality empirically. Of course, today, for science in particular, electronic communication makes possible communities of individuals from all corners of the world. The most direct evolution toward an enlightened science is for these groups to just go about supporting each other in doing science free of disproved, official assumptions.

Of course, an informed public is crucial. Already, however, that public is learning that the most dreaded words one can hear in modern life are "There is no credible scientific evidence that the substance in question is harmful to human beings." One just cringes and thinks, "How long before the data is re- leased and the other shoe drops?" Individual survival based on free communication and individual decision making seems the slow but surer method for achieving both spiritual and scientific enlightenment.

References

Arp, H. (1999). Seeing red: Redshifts cosmology and academic science. Montreal, CN: Apeiron. Cribb, J. (1996). The white death. Australia: Angus & Robertson. Curtis, T. (1992, March 19). The origin ofAIDS. Rolling Stone, p. 54. Goldberg, S. (1999). Seduced by science: How American religion has lost its way. New York:

New York University Press. Gould, S. J. (1999). Rocks of ages: Science and religion in the fullness of life. New York: Library

of Contemporary Thought (Ballantine). Hahn, B., Shaw, G., De Cock, K., & Sharp, P. (2000). AIDS as a zoonosis: scientijc andpublic

health implications. Science, 287,607. Hooper, E. (1990). A reporter's own story ofAIDS in East Africa. London: Bodley Head. Hooper, E. (1999). The river: A journey to the source of HIVand AIDS. New York: Little Brown. Sokal, A. (1996). Transgressing the boundaries: Toward a transformative hermeneutics of quan-

tum gravity. Social Text, 46/47(14), 217-250. Sokal, A., & Bricmont, J. (1998). Intellectual impostures: Postmodern philosophers' abuse of

science. London: Profile. Welsome, E. (1999). Theplutoniumjles. Dial, UK: Delacorte Press (USA).

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 455-459,2000 0892-33 10/00 0 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

LETTERS THE EDITOR

Is the Activity of the Cerebral Cortex a "Brake" on the Functioning of the Brainstem?

During the 1980s, experimental research in China indicated an increased excitability of the brainstem while the activity of the cerebral cortex was inhibited. Could the activity of the cerebral cortex serve as a "brake" on the functioning of the brainstem?

Since the late 1970s, scientific researches on QiGong and extraordinary human capabilities have sprung up in China. Since 1982 at Beijing Traditional Chinese Medicine University, Professor Liu Guo-long has studied the central nervous system of long-term QiGong practitioners who were in a trance state. Here, I would like to summarize the results, which were published in Chinese (Cui and Liu, 1989; Liu et al., 1988).

The cerebral cortex consists of five lobes: the temporal, occipital, parietal, frontal, and limbic. Changes of evoked potentials (EPs) of the brain waves were measured in several of these lobes as subjects entered a trance state.

In the auditory cortex, in the temporal lobe, EPs decreased by an average of 72% (P < .01) for 11 subjects entering trance in the process of moderate latency (a state of normal brain activity, 15-50 milliseconds). For 11 other subjects entering trance in the process of long latency (a state of stimulation, 50-300 milliseconds), the decrease was 43% (P < .01). Thus, a trance state inhibits the activity in the temporal lobe.

The occipital lobe, the location of the visual center, was stimulated in 26 subjects by flashes and pictures. The potentials evoked by flashes and pictures decreased in the trance state by 32%-67% (P < .05) and 3 8%-53% (P < .05), respectively. Thus, a trance state inhibits the activity of the occipital lobe cortex as well.

The parietal lobe, the location of the body's sensory center, was stimulated by somatosensory signals in 2 1 subjects. The EPs after entering into a trance state decreased by an average of 29% (P < .05) of subjects. The evoked potentials after entering into a trance state decreased by an average of 29% (P < .05) in the sensory center and by 53% (P < .01) in the round areas of the sensory center. Thus, a trance state also inhibits the activities of the parietal lobe and its round cortex.

The frontal lobe, the locus of the high-level activities of consciousness, was studied in 14 subjects. The alpha rhythm of the brain in its normal state is chiefly found in the occipital lobe. However, after entering into a trance state, the brain showed a striking synchronization of alpha rhythm, particularly in the frontal lobes, and an increase in magnitude of the brain waves. The latter

456 Letters to the Editor

also increased in the occipital lobe but not as markedly as in the frontal lobe. By contrast, normal consciousness and thinking were mainly inhibited after entering a trance state.

No results were given for the limbic lobe, which regulates visceral activities. It lies inside the cerebral hemispheres and there are technical difficulties in directly studying its functioning.

Changes in the brainstem were surveyed in 21 subjects entering into a trance state: The potentials of the diencephalon increased by an average of 42% (no P value provided in the original); of the midbrain by an average of 92% (P < .001); of the pons by 140% (P < .001); and of the medulla by 70% (P < .OI). The potentials of the nearby areas of the cerebral cortex decreased by an average of 9.5%. Thus, the trance state appears to increase excitation in the brainstem and to decrease activity in the cerebral cortex.

To rule out the influence of psychological factors, the researchers surveyed 12 cats. They found that the brainstems of the cats showed the same facilitation (excitability increase) when the cats received the Qi sent by QiGong practitioners.

The researchers suggested that a trance state decreases the control of brainstem function exercised by the cerebral cortex, leading to an increase in excitability of the brainstem.

It is interesting that similar suggestions have been made in the Western literature about psychic abilities, namely that the cerebral cortex has an inhibitory effect on psi abilities and the brainstem has something to do with psi abilities.

Bergson (1 9 14) proposed the "filter theory": If the brain developed biologi- cally for reasons of survival, as an organ whose main function is to receive information, perhaps it also serves to screen out certain information in the service ofbiological survival. Thus, it would act as an organ of limitation, a filter. Bergson proposed that the cortex in particular plays this role.

Eysenck (1 967) suggested that a high state of arousal in the cortex mediated by the ascending reticular formation (the afferent or input side of the reticular formation) is antagonistic to psi. (The reticular formation lies in the brainstem. One of its functions is to mediate changes in degree of wakefulness.)

Pribram (1973) and Luria (1973) have noted that the frontal and temporal cortices play an important part in the selective filtering of "afference" or input from outside.

It is well known that cocaine and morphine have a marked inhibitory effect on the cerebral cortex but not on the brainstem, the "primary" nerve center. At the same time, drug takers often claim to experience something like religious ecstasy.

Some psychotics, too, whose cerebral cortex is flawed to varying degrees, have sometimes been reported to experience psychic phenomena.

Ganzfeld studies, in which sensory stimuli are blocked to enhance psychic capability, may also be pertinent.

Myers (1 903) introduced the notion of "subliminal self" in contrast to our normal waking consciousness, the "conscious self." He thought that the "sub-

Letters to the Editor 457

liminal self" takes control in the case of automatic writing, trance, or other au- tomatisms and can "reassert itself in its plentitude after the liberating change of death," although it seems to be blocked by conscious expression. Myers did not identify a part of the brain with the subliminal self; perhaps it is associated with the brainstem.

Dixon (1971) and Beloff (1974) have explicitly suggested a close relationship between psi phenomena and subliminal perception on the one hand and reticular formation and the brainstem on the other.

Ehrenwald (1977) also considered this possibility: "Certain elementary forms of ESP tend to bypass conscious awareness. They are not tied to processing in higher cortical centers and point to the subcortical, midbrain, or limbic region as their substrate."

I believe that two conclusions can be inferred from the experimental research in China, as well as the research results reported in the Western literature.

First, in normal waking consciousness, the functions of the brainstem are repressed by the activity of the cerebral cortex that deals with daily feeling and consciousness. The activity of the cerebral cortex is the "brake" on the functions of the brainstem. The brainstem cannot function unless the activity of the cerebral cortex is inhibited.

Second, because the trance state often has a most important bearing on psi, the facilitation (excitability increase) of the brainstem in a trance state means that the brainstem's function, if it functions, should have direct relation to psi abilities, psi phenomena, and religious mystic experiences.

Further work along the lines of Liu et al. (1988) and Cui and Liu (1989) might well be fruitful.

Jesse Hong Xiong Department of Philosophy

University of Toronto, 361 Euclid Avenue, Toronto, ON, Canada M6J2Kl e-mail: hongxiong @ yahoo.com

References

Beloff, J. (1974). ESP: The search for a physiological index. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research, 47, 403-420.

Bergson, H. (1914). Presidential address to the Society for Psychical Research. Proceedings of the Society for Psychical Research, 27, 157-175

Cui, R., & Liu, G. (1989). Modern research on the mechanism of regulating mind by QiGong. Chinese QiGong, 1, 4-5.

Dixon, N. F. (1971). Subliminalperceptions: The nature of a controversy. New York: McGraw-Hill. Ehrenwald, J. (1977). Psi phenomena and brain research. Handbook of parapsychology. New

York: Van Nostrand Reinhold. Eysenck, H. J. (1967). Personality and extrasensory perception. Journal of the Society for Psychi-

cal Research, 44, 55-7 1. Liu, G., Cui, R., Niu, X., & Peng, X. (1988). Experimental research on the state of QiGong and

Qi's effect upon nerve function. Chinese QiGong, 6, 3-5. Luria, A. R. (1973). The working brain. New York: Basic Books. Myers, F. H. W. (1903). Humanpersonality and its survival of death. London: Longmans. Pribram, K. (1973). Psychology of the frontal lobes. New York: Academic Press.

458 Letters to the Editor

Understanding the Nature of Racial Prejudice (Re: "Toward an Understanding of the Nature of Racial Prejudice" by Hoyle and Wickramasinghe, Journal of Scientific Exploration, 13(4))

I eagerly looked forward to reading this article not only because I am a person of color but also because I agree with the authors' view that such an "understanding could eradicate or ameliorate its worse manifestations."

I must confess that after reviewing the basic geology, anthropology, and Darwinian biological material and the relationship of sunlight to Vitamin D production, as well as malignant melanoma known to every health food natur- opathic aficionado, I found myself at the end of the brief article wondering if I had missed something. I reread it and discovered that I had not.

"Race matters," as Derrick Bell elaborates in his book, Faces at the Bottom of the Well (New York: Basic Books, 1992), but even Professor Bell and countless others who have written about the "nature of racial prejudice" fail to fully explain the "genesis" of the problem. To the authors' credit, however, they acknowledge that racism is not entirely related to skin color alone. Aside from this small nugget of insight, I found their effort curiously unrewarding.

Respectfully, Richard S. Hahn, M. D., RA. C.S.

Alliance for Health, Inc. 428 Golden Gate Avenue

Belvedere, CA 94920

Dear Dr. Hahn: The editors have changed at the Journal of Scientzfic Exploration. I , too,

found the essay by Hoyle and Wickramasinghe disappointing-naive and simplistic. The points you make are well taken. However, they do little to help our readers toward a more sophisticated understanding.The Journal does publish extended commentary on previously published pieces, and we would hap- pily entertain such a commentary, of up to several pages, from you on this issue. Please let us know whether you will do that or whether you would like your comments published in their present form.

Yours sincerely, Henry H. Bauer Editor-in-Chief

Dear Dr. Bauer: I have been involved with the attempts to accord Dr. Wen Ho Lee the same

congressional courtesy and resolution that Mr. Deutsch, former chief of the

Letters to the Editor 459

CIA, was given for exactly the same accusation that keeps Wen Ho Lee shack- led in prison isolation while Deutsch enjoys the freedom of his retirement. I believe the issues of race, diversity, multiculturalism-i.e., basically "fair- ness"-transcend all specialized scientific interests. Having reread your letter of April 20, 2000, I would like to accept your offer to "publish comments in their present form." I would not object to publishing our correspondence including this letter. I do appreciate your offer to publish a more extended commentary, but I think it prudent not "to keep beating a dead horse."

Cordially, Richard S. Hahn, M. D. FA. C.S.

Emeritus Member, SSE

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 461-493,2000 0892-33 10/00 O 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

BOOK REVIEWS

With the Tongues of Men and Angels: A Study of Channeling by Arthur Hastings. San Francisco, London, Montreal, et al.: Holt, Rinehart and Win- ston, 1991. 227 pp. Illustrations and photographs. References. Index. Appen- dix.

Sometimes it is important to go back and reexamine a book that has been overlooked. This is a review of such a book: With the Tongues of Men and Angels. Arthur Hastings, its author, sets himself two tasks and does very well at addressing them: What is the nature of channeling? What is the significance of channeling for us? These are questions worth attention, not least because the phenomena of channeling has been around for thousands of years and defies all attempts to explain it away. It is so compelling that even the exposure of oc- casional frauds has not slowed the public's interest. Perhaps this is because, as Hastings states, fully 15% of the population-in the United States today that would be approximately 41 million people-report hearing voices and receiving guidance. I do not know where Hastings got that astounding-at least to me-figure, but it conjures an arresting reality.

Hastings approaches his subject with an open mind-a surprisingly rare atti- tude, as anyone who takes the trouble to look at the literature of channeling quickly discovers. Whether it is called channeling, mediumship, automatic writing, guidance, prophecy, or any one of several other names, as a rule it ex- cites more passion than insight. Hastings also writes with a light touch, which, for anyone doing research in this area, will be much appreciated. With the no- table exception of Jon Klimo's recent and excellent Channeling, ' much of the modem literature on this subject is famously insubstantial, and the more serious studies, dating mostly from the late 19th and early 20th centuries, are so turgid and self-important, whether espousing or denigrating the subject, that reading them becomes an act of penance.

Hastings begins his exploration where it should begin, with a discussion of just what we mean by channeling, and he makes the important point that this is a big umbrella that covers many different beasts. He settles on this as his definition of what channeling is.

Channeling refers to a process in which a person transmits information or artistic expression that he or she receives mentally or physically, and which appears to come from a personality source outside the conscious mind. The message is directed toward an audience and is purposeful (p. 4).

Klimo, Jon. (1998). Channeling: Investigations on receiving information frornparanomzal sources. Berkeley, CA: North Atlantic Books.

462 Book Reviews

This is a more subtle definition than it may appear at first reading. Was Edgar Cayce a channel? With a few exceptions, he did not channel discarnates or dead people, claiming that his source was what he called the superconscious

That is hardly the same thing as Frederick Bligh Bond, who reconstruct- ed Glastonbury Abbey following guidance he received in automatic writing sessions from sources who claimed to be the monks who once inhabited the ru- ined ~ b b e ~ . ~ But both Cayce and Bond share one thing: They provided testable information that could be independently verified. This is quite different from the Ramtha persona channeled by J. Z. Knight. Like Bond's monks, this was presented as a discarnate source, but the Ramtha material is very short on testable information, running instead to long philosophical discourses. The key words in Hastings7 definition are "outside the conscious mind." In that sense, yes, Cayce was a channeler. Under this definition, the same could be said of Rudolf Steiner, but what about Wolfgang Amadeus ~ o z a r t , ~ ~ r a h m s , ~ and ~ o ~ e l a n d , ~ all of whom reported hearing the music that they wrote down. That would take channeling into the waters of creativity and intuition, and Hastings admits as much. He decides to focus his book on channeling with a defined source. This helps the structure of his slender book, but I could not help wishing he had taken a broader rubric, since while critics may deride channeled "masters" such as Ramtha, they can hardly avoid the mastery of a Mozart sonata or a Housman poem, and there is clearly some kind of connection here.

Having laid his groundwork, Hastings plunges into actual cases, some, such as Cayce, well known to millions and others, such as Pearl Curran, a St. Louis housewife who channeled the poetry, novels, and plays of Patience Worth-re- putedly an English woman of the 17th century-are now virtually unknown except to scholars such as Stephen Braude, who has written extensively about this case. Phenomenon such as the CurranIWorth material, once widely popular and ranked equal to the work of Amy Lowell and Edgar Lee Masters, illustrate yet again the connection between creativity and channeling.

Even more provocative is the mathematical genius Srinivasa Ramanujan, a largely self-educated East Indian whose work is one of the great mathematical accomplishments of the age, and who said some of his theorems came from In- dian goddesses-a fact mostly ignored in the biographical canon about this remarkable man.

Edgar Cayce Reading 254-67. Bond, Frederick Bligh. (1918, 1921). The gates of remembrance: The story of the psychological ex-

periment which resulted in the discovery of the Edgar Chapel at Glastonbury (2nd and 4th eds.) Revised. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.

Delaney, Gail. (1984). Creativity in music. Proceedings of the Association for the Anthropological Study of Consciousness. Annual Meetings.

Abell, A. M. (1964). Talks with the great composers (pp. 19-21). Garmisch-Parten-Kirchen: G . E. Schroeder-Verlag .

Delaney. Loc Cit.

Book Reviews 463

Hastings goes on to cite a long list of other musicians and artists who channeled (albeit not the type of channeling that meets his definition), and once again, I found myself wishing Hastings had addressed the issue of creativity in the context of channeling to a greater degree. Although, given his definition, this "open channeling," as he styles it, was not the focus of his book.

Hastings does, however, make some very important points, both about channeling as he defines it and about open channeling. A study of this subject reveals first the "variety of skills demonstrated"; second, that the creation of this material is "effortless, immediate, and spontaneous"; third, that the skills demonstrated are not only above what the channeler can attain in the normal waking state, but often rise to the level of real genius; fourth, that the material often has a profoundly spiritual, if usually nondenominational character proposing the interconnectedness of all life; and fifth, that channelers are not psychotic, abnormal, or dysfunctional-or at least no more so than the general run of the population.

This case history information, which makes up the bulk of the book, is fascinating, and most of it is little known. But more important than the case history material is the framework in which Hastings places it. He does not shy away from calling a fraud a fraud, and he gives the reader a clear path for evaluating what is going on. He also includes considerable material from the formal psi literature, which goes almost entirely unremarked in most books on channeling. My only complaint here is that I wish he had gone into greater detail on the relationship between remote viewing and channeling. Both, after all, are examples of anomalous cognition.

I particularly appreciated the section on the relationship between channeling and religious prophets. This is very touchy stuff that most scientists avoid altogether, and some religious find offensive: If it is God talking to you, how dare you call it channeling. Yet, at their core, most religions are channeled, and if only because of the slaughters and mass suicides that are such prominent features in the landscape of religious channeling, this subject deserves the closest attention. Hastings' observations make a real contribution.

Similarly, his section on various theories and models of channeling provide what is probably as comprehensive and cogent a take on this aspect as will be found anywhere.

At the end of the day, Hastings achieves what many aspire to achieve and few attain in the field of the paranormal: a sensible well-grounded but accessible examination of a highly controversial subject.

Stephan A. Schwartz Shepherdstown, WV

Reaching for Reality-Seven Incredible True Stories of Alien Abduction by Constance Clear. San Antonio, TX: Consciousness Now, 1999. x + 230 pp. $16.95, paperback. P.O. Box 15994, San Antonio, TX 78212.

464 Book Reviews

Constance Clear is a psychotherapist (no doctorate listed) who specializes in treating people who believe that they have been abducted by aliens from UFOs. (Any unidentified aerial phenomenon is, technically, a UFO, but references here will be to extraterrestrial spacecraft.) In this book, seven such cases are presented, partly in the words of the clients. There are numerous sketches by the clients and a few photographs of sores and the like.

In approaching treatments of this topic, we must consider some background factors. Since Kenneth Arnold made his famed sighting in 1947, there has been no physical evidence such as part of a spacecraft. There have been no unambiguous photographs, no careful measurements of trajectories in flight, to say nothing of one of the aliens finally landing in the public square and demanding, "Take me to your leader." Further, to accept what is characteristical- ly alleged in such cases, we must overlook laws of physics that are fairly well established. There is the time that it would take such craft to get here from outside our solar system, many times the plausible lifetime of any readily imagin- able creature. There is the absence of any physical principle reconcilable with the way the UFOs are said to hover. One well-credentialed physicist consulted by the reviewer estimated the chance of the UFOs being real as one in a billion. Because of that one chance, he added, one should not make a categorical denial. Nevertheless, the burden of proof rests with those who assert these extraordinary phenomena. It is a burden that Ms. Clear does not meet and does not, in some ways, try to meet. One feels her strong empathy with her counse- lees, her painstaking efforts to report her clinical experiences accurately. Still, the author apparently accepts all that her clients tell her as fact, even though it involves their floating through the air, walking through walls, and so on. There are obvious questions that neither she nor they appear to have asked, such as if a spaceship landed in the front yard on dozens of occasions, why didn't the neighbors ever notice? In one instance, a man says that an alien tore a button off his pajamas and cut a swatch of cloth from them. When he awoke in his bed later, the button was in place and no cloth was missing or looked resewn. Con- clusion: These aliens are clever! Even the book's title takes a stand for the objective reality of the clients' experiences. The subtitle includes "true" (worthy of belief), albeit immediately preceded by "incredible" (not worthy of belief).

Ms. Clear organized her clients into a support group to share their abduction experiences with one another. No procedure seems likelier to encourage any misperceptions they had, nor less likely to encourage critical thinking. Fur- ther, she ignores ready-to-hand psychological explanations for the experiences. The author and the clients were no doubt presenting the truth as they saw it, but there are such things as dreams, hallucinations, false memories, fugue states, and dissociated states. Seasoned clinicians are presumably aware of them. Currently, at Fukushima University in Japan, research is being done on sleep paralysis, the result of a disconnect between brain and body as a person is on the verge of sleep. The disorder tends to produce symptoms markedly similar to those described in Clear's book. When witches were in style, vic-

Book Reviews 465

tims of sleep paralysis often saw witches. Now they see UFOs, whose crews speak to them in their own language and local dialect or sometimes telepathi- cally-a convenient mode, since the message can be whatever the recipient chooses it to be. Perhaps, in the future, they will see robotic supercomputers.

UFOs and aliens who give medical examinations to earth people are possible in the broad sense in which anything that is not a contradiction in terms (e.g., a square circle) is possible. Nevertheless, the odds remain what they are. Perhaps the main contribution of this book to science will be one certainly not intended by its author: to illustrate how mass delusions can become accultur- ated and widespread and persist in the face of reason and contrary evidence. The witch trials in Salem and America in the McCarthy period come to mind.

Robert Nordberg Marquette University

999 East Quarles Place, Fox Point, WI 5321 7

Project Mindshift: The Re-Education of the American Public Concerning Extraterrestrial Life, 1947 to the Present by Michael Mannion. M. Evans and Company, 1998. 304 pp. $22.95, hardcover.

In this fascinating book, Michael Mannion goes far beyond mere historical rehash of the modern era of ufology to explore a new thesis: that the government is engaged in a subtle reeducation project to accustom the American public to the idea that extraterrestrials have contacted us and are among us. Throughout the book, Mannion shows a fine ability to look at human problems-such as UFOs and the possible alien agenda-and reflect them neatly through the lenses our culture employs, such as music, movies, the Internet, and science. He is neither sensational nor skeptical, which is refreshing. And he does not purport to have any final answers. This balance is desperately needed in ufology, in which ill-researched answers and grand conclusions are all too common.

The idea of government activity in ufology is not new, of course. The government's (usually nefarious) involvement in shaping public opinion is a sta- ple of conspiratorial ufology. But Mannion does not dwell on conspiracies, though he outlines the case for covert government involvement. He considers some high-ranking body similar to MJ- 12 to be likely. But to his credit, Man- nion does not take sides in the acrimonious debate about whether the inner circle of powerful men forming the MJ-12 group actually existed. He only states that some such steering committee is likely, because the government had a demonstrated interest in UFOs in the modern era.

The book's focus is more on the mindshift hypothesis. This is the notion that for a truly significant paradigm change to occur, there must be a mindshift in a society's way of looking at the world. The hypothesis Mannion is working

466 Book Reviews

with is defined in the book as, "Our world has been and is now being visited by advanced intelligent entities from elsewhere, and this reality has been known to a limited number of people within the U.S. government since at least 1947 ." (pp. 82-83) Mannion cautions that the mindshift hypothesis is an assumption, not a conclusion. Working with it requires suspending deeply held beliefs, setting opinions aside, and delaying judgments until all the facts are in. Drawing on his hypothesis, Mannion speculates that if a small group of government of- ficials knew about extraterrestrial life, and if they feared the public could not cope with this information, then what would they do? They would probably engineer some kind of program to slowly open the public to the idea so that people could gradually come to accept it.

Central to the book's hypothesis are Mannion's interviews with the mindshifters. These are the luminaries known to all students of ufology, including Budd Hopkins, Raymond Fowler, John Mack, Stanton Friedman, Michael Lindemann, Edgar Mitchell, Don Berliner, and David Jacobs. Interestingly, most of these men remain skeptical about the government's conducting of a subtle but pervasive education campaign to effect a mindshift in public attitudes toward aliens. Most see either no evidence that the government has any kind of education program or shadowy evidence that the government has spent most of its energy hiding and disguising the truth about UFOs and extraterrestrial life. The only dissenter is Michael Lindemann, who thinks it is possible that the government is both hiding and revealing the truth in order to prepare the public for more direct revelations later.

Following these interviews come exciting chapters in which Mannion looks for evidence of mindshift in print, radio, TV, movies, music, and the Internet. In all of these media, Mannion finds evidence of material on UFOs and extraterrestrial life, although it is questionable whether it adds up to a well-defined pattern. Generally, the book takes a chronological viewpoint, tracing the increase and sophistication of alien themes. The chapter on the Internet is the thinnest, mainly because the Internet is so new that it hasn't much chronological history. This chapter becomes almost a listing of Internet resources.

On the other hand, the richest chapter in this section is the one on the movies. Mannion speculates that the science fiction genre, which has been full of aliens since the 1950s, may be the tool par excellence for a government reeducation program. He notes that several classic films, such as Invasion of the Body Snatchers, The Thing from Another World, and It Came from Outer Space all foreshadowed later UFO themes. He points to the possible evidence of covert government involvement in the movies by describing what happened with the 1950s film Invaders from Mars. In this movie, a boy watches a saucer burrow into the ground in his backyard. His father, who investigates, returns a changed man, with a black mark on his neck. Soon all the town's adults have the mark. Finally, the boy finds an astronomer who believes him, and the aliens are defeated. Interestingly, the European and American versions of the film were different. In Europe, the film portrayed the boy's story as real. But

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the American version depicted the boy's story as if it were all a dream. The original screenwriter was so incensed by this, says Mannion, that he had his name removed from the credits. Mannion buttresses the plausibility of government interference in movies by noting, "Movies and politics have always mixed well because Hollywood and Washington are both about money and power" (p. 176). The book builds a likely, though circumstantial, case for governmental interest and influence.

A cornerstone of the book is the chapter Mindshift in Science. Mannion discusses the changes occurring in astronomy as a result of the new focus on finding extraterrestrial life in our own solar system. NASA itself has been excited by preliminary findings of microbial life in a meteor from Mars. Mannion also investigates the possibilities of zero-point energy, surveying the scientists who thought its use possible, from Andrei Sakharov to Nikola Tesla. Zero-point energy is the minimum energy possessed by a substance at absolute zero temperature. It is ubiquitous and fills all the fabric of space. It may be the energy that powers UFOs. Even NASA is interested in its technical applications.

But the majority of the science chapter is devoted to the still-controversial theories of Wilhelm Reich, some of whose theories were similar to those of zero-point energy. The basis of Reich's science was the concept of "life energy," or "orgone energy," as he named it. He considered orgone energy to be tangible, measurable, and usable. He wrote descriptions of the energy that tally well with what physics knows today about energies. Reich became interested in UFOs in 1953. He felt that their observed characteristics fit perfectly with the behavior of orgone energy. He took photos of UFO tracks (three of these rare photographs-excellent examples of the scientific method at work-are reproduced in Mannion's book). Mannion feels that Reich's science and discoveries are key to understanding UFOs. He speculates that Reich's fate-he died while serving in a federal penitentiary-may have been the result of governmental pressure:

There is evidence indicating that Reich's work was known to some at the highest levels 1 of the U.S. government and taken seriously. His energy discoveries were a challenge to individual character structure, powerful economic forces, the emerging national securi- ty state-in other words, to the entire authoritarian social order itself (p. 283).

Mannion paints a picture of humanity in a state of crisis now, but also holding the tools that can be used to overcome it. A serious scientific evaluation of Reich's work is essential at this critical juncture. Indeed, says Mannion, "The development of Reich's orgone energy research could bring about the greatest mindshift of all" (p. 285).

In his final chapter, Mannion draws the strands together into some novel conclusions. He begins with a summation of the possible alien agendas from all of the mindshifters he interviewed. None of their conclusions are particularly startling. But then Mannion discusses a fundamental question that aliens

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might ask about us: What is wrong with human beings? Why have all the religious and philosophical attempts, from Plato to Judaism to Christianity, always failed to fundamentally restructure human life toward love and gentle- ness? Mannion concludes that aliens might consider humanity's fundamental flaw to be evident in the way we treat our newborn.

Humans slap the newborn, cut the umbilical cord, wrap infants in swaddling clothes, feed them from bottles, circumcise them, and do many other harmful, if not cruel, things to the newborn. Mannion develops the idea that the infant, reaching out to the world, is greeted with harshness-and often abuse and neglect-and then withdraws. This withdrawal may be at the root of our deep- seated social problems. He points out that humans interfere with the sexuality of the young in many ways. How is all of this related to UFOs? Through energy. Mannion reminds readers that Reich (as well as ancient philosophers) understood there to be one primordial, cosmic energy force that expresses itself through all living and nonliving things. It may be this primordial energy that aliens are studying in people.

Mannion notes that many abductees describe sexual experiments by the aliens and wonders if perhaps the aliens are drawn to this because they know of human sexual dysfunction and its consequences. He says, "There is ample evidence to link sexual pathology with a wide range of destructive and self-destructive behavior. Perhaps ET interest in human sexuality has more to do with this biological tragedy than we know" (pp. 295-296).

The book ends on a cautious note. Mannion neither puts forward answers nor charts a program for changing things to complete the mindshift. He simply points out that aliens may have come here for reasons that have nothing to do with humanity, much as the Europeans came to the Americas for reasons having nothing to do with the indigenous peoples. Aliens may not be (as Euro- peans were not) superior or godly, despite advanced technology. They may just be other life-forms, exploring creation in their own ways.

Mannion's final bit of advice is not fleshed out. Whatever the aliens are up to, he says, humans have a great need and an old one: to reconnect with the cosmos through unconditional love. The problem with this is that it gives the book a slightly mystical aura that the rest of the contents do not support or discuss. Nevertheless, Mannion's book is different in that it seeks to locate patterns in all the activity around UFOs in the last half a century, and this makes the book valuable.

Alexander lmich Anomalous Phenomena Research Center

New York, NY

Cryptozoology A to Z: The Encyclopedia of Loch Monsters, Sasquatch, Chupacabras, and Other Authentic Mysteries of Nature by Loren Cole- man and Jerome Clark. New York: FiresidelSimon & Schuster, 1999. 270 pp.

Book Reviews 469

$13.00, paperback. ISBN 0-684-85602-6. Illustrations and photographs. Bib- liographical references.

Loren Coleman, who lives in Portland, Maine, has an undergraduate degree in anthropology-zoology and a graduate degree in psychiatric social work. He has been an instructor, assistant, and associate professor, as well as a research associate in various academic university settings since 1980. He authored, coauthored, or edited eight books, including Suicide Clusters and The Field

~ Guide to Bigfoot (with Patrick Huyghe, as well as numerous articles on elusive animals. His coauthor Jerome Clark, a resident of Canby, Minnesota, is the author of several popular encyclopedias on the history of natural phenomena.

French scholar Bernard Heuvelmans, who is frequently referred to as the "father of Cryptozoology" (p. 105), has defined the field as "the scientific study of hidden animals, i.e., of still unknown animal forms about which only testimonial and circumstantial evidence is available, or material evidence considered insufficient7' (p. 75). The book contains over 120 entries on "cryptids" (as those enigmatic creatures are called) and includes more than 50 biographies of researchers, explorers, and authors as well as information on some organizations and periodicals in the field. Thus, the reader has a chance to learn about numerous purported mysterious animals-from the popular Abom- inable Snowman (also known as "Bigfoot" and "Yeti") to the obscure "Zuiyo- maru Monster," which was reportedly found off the coast of New Zealand in 1977 but whose sighting disappointingly proved to be a decomposed shark. To summarize, the entries about the "cryptic" animals clearly fall into three cate- gories: searched for and already discovered species (those that may be called "right" or "certain"), problematic and disputed ("undecided"), and those proven to be mistakes and hoaxes ("wrong" or erroneous).

Some may doubt whether the field of cryptozoology actually exists. On one hand, critics of the field frequently refer to unreliability of witnesses due to faults of human attention and memory. They argue that sightings of unexpected events, such as unknown or rare animal species, present considerable challenges to accurate perception, interpretation, and recall (e.g., Hall, McFeaters, and Loftus, 1987), let alone deliberate hoaxes. On the other hand, some hither- to unknown species of animals have been discovered in this century, including the okapi (which is the centerpiece of the logo of International Society of Cryptozoology founded in 1982) in Congo, the giant panda in Tibet, and the latest saola ("forest goat" Pseudoryx ngbetinbensis) in Vietnam's Vu Quang Nature Reserve near the Laotian border. Thus, it is not surprising that the general public is more skeptical with regard to the disputed animals than trained professionals: While only 13% of average Americans believe in existence of Nessie (also known as the Loch Ness monster, a supposed inhabitant of Loch Ness lake in Scotland), nearly 40% of marine biologists give credence to the evidence that Nessies are real (Bauer, 1987, p. 70).

It is also true that many animals have become extinct over the last few hundred years as a result of ecological disruption (e.g., deforestation) caused by

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humans migrating to new environments or direct attempts to exterminate some species deemed to be "harmful." An example is the thylacine (pp. 238-239), also known as marsupial wolf or Tasmanian tiger (Thylacinus cyno- cepha1us)-a doglike carnivorous animal that was hunted to extinction in the early part of the 20th century. The last known living specimen died in captivity in 1936 in the Hobart Zoo in Australia. Persistent reports of sightings right down to the present offer hope that a few thylacines may still live in the wild. For example, a Park and Wildlife officer reported observing a thylacine in the Pyengana region of eastern Tasmania in January 1995. However, a follow-up search failed to find any trace of this animal.

The book would benefit from a more holistic interdisciplinary approach essential for research into anomalies-a more extensive discussion of alternative, including nonbiological, explanations for the nature of mysterious creatures. One plausible point of view is a psychological explanation briefly mentioned in the book under the entry "Goblin Universe" (p. loo), which touches upon potential "paranormal" (in the authors' terminology) or rather archetypal origin of beliefs in legendary and mythological creatures. In this connection, one can remember Carl Jung's (1964, p. 70) example of a 10-year- old girl who dreamed of "the evil animalw-a snakelike monster with many horns who kills and devours all other animals. According to Jung, such "archa- ic remnants" or "primordial images," which are encountered in different cultures around the world, originate in the collective unconscious. Thus, the Piasa, a mythological creature found in legends of the Illinois-an Algo- nquian-speaking Indian tribe that concentrated along the Illinois River to the Mississippi River-and discussed in this volume (pp. 201-202) may fall into this category.

Another example of a nonbiological explanation not addressed in this book is related to such persistent type of disputed creatures as sea snakes or lake monsters, the most famous of which is the Loch Ness monster, or Nessie. Back in 1987, anomalies researcher James Westman suggested that the Loch Ness monster may represent a form of energy rather than a living creature and should thus be studied by physicists rather than biologists. It is also conceiv- able that at least some of such sightings may actually be due to standing wave phenomena such as soliton waves or little-known weather phenomena such as miniwaterspouts.

On the positive side, the book offers a multicultural perspective of the search for "cryptic" animals, including a discussion of Russian researcher Boris F. Porshnev's theories regarding yet undiscovered primates such as Almas or Almasty (Abominable Snowman-like creature) whose giant foot- prints were reportedly found in Tien Shan mountains and in the Caucasus in the south of Russia. Beginning with the 1950s, these "relict hominoids" were studied by a formal commission of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR. I still remember debates on the subject at meetings of the Moscow Society of Naturalists in the early 1970s.

Book Reviews 47 1

Although the field of cryptozoology is highly controversial, the book represents a useful and informative contribution to public knowledge of anomalies.

I A curious reader interested in the field will benefit from it-at least until a more scholarly encyclopedia on the subject is published. An easily readable style and extensive bibliography are particularly useful, even though there is no division between scholarly and popular publications, as are informative lists of museums, exhibitions, periodicals, and Web-sites.

Larissa Vilenskaya 101 0 Harriet Street, Palo Alto, CA 94301 -3430

References Bauer, H. H. (1987). Society and scientific anomalies: Common knowledge about the Loch Ness

monster. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 1(1), 5 1-74. Hall, D. F., McFeaters, S. J., & Loftus, E. F. (1987). Alterations in recollection of unusual and un-

expected events. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 1(1), 3-10. Jung, C. G. (1964). Man and his symbols. Garden City, NY: Doubleday. Westman, J. (1987). Comments on bauer's "Loch Ness monster." Journal of Scientific Explo-

ration, 1(2), 101.

Understanding Tomorrow's Mind edited by Larry Vandervert (a special issue of the Journal of Mind and Behavior, volume 18).

This special volume of the Journal of Mind and Behavior (spring and summer 1997 issues of volume 18) is devoted to papers relating chaos theory and quantum mechanics (QM) to psychology and the study of consciousness. The collection is titled "Understanding Tomorrow's Mind," and the implication is that further understanding of consciousness and the mind will require the use of tools such as the mathematics of chaos theory and the physics of QM. Al- though this is a fairly popular idea in some cognitive science circles (particularly in some corners of artificial intelligence and artificial life research), most work in psychology makes no connection with developments in the forefront of physics or mathematics. The claim that fundamental advances in these fields have anything to do with the study of behavior and consciousness is a bold one, because it is often thought that cognition arises at a much higher level and is controlled by principles far removed from the laws governing the bedrock of matter, within which mentality is embedded. This book presents an interesting sample of approaches that aim to make progress in cognitive research by using tools from fundamental physics and mathematics.

The volume presents a sample of applications of nonlinear and quantum modeling approaches for the dynamics underlying psychological phenomena. It starts with a brief preface and a set of guidelines for using this book as a teaching tool. This is a very useful inclusion; however, it would have been even more useful if it had included some references and pointers to areas of work specifically not included in this collection (more on that below).

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Chapter 1 is a tutorial on chaos by B. West-a very readable, easily understandable piece on the fundamentals of low-dimensional, deterministic, nonlinear, dynamical systems theory ( i .e . , chaos theory). The chapter has almost no formulas, but it does have enough graphs and a very lucid explanation of the fundamentals-what this theory is and what it is not. There is enough meat here to emphasize the relevant conceptual aspects of nonlinear sciences. Par- ticularly useful is a table contrasting various aspects of scientific research as they are viewed from the classical versus the "nontraditional" paradigms of systems theory. The key concepts of chaos theory are given as: emergence, deterministic but unpredictable behavior, large effects caused by small inputs, discontinuous and nonlinear behavior, no characteristic scale (interesting detail appears at a wide range of magnifications along some parameter), and the necessity for qualitative understanding of the system. West covers examples in topology, physics, mechanics, embryogenesis, psychophysics, business/eco- nomics, and evolution. This is a very valuable paper in every way and should prompt every interested reader to delve more deeply into books such as West (1990), Barbi (1998), or Liebovitch (1998).

The next chapter, by H. Stapp, is an introduction to QM. The introduction is a very good one; it begins quite abstractly, without the usual examples of basic physics experiments that demonstrate quantum "weirdness." Such examples are, I think, necessary to a good understanding of what QM is all about, and one can get a flavor for them in many good books understandable by the nonexpert. Examples include Herbert (1985) and Gribbin (1995). Stapp's approach is interestingly different from most expositions of QM and is quite relevant to the psychological theme of this collection. He discusses QM in relation to the work of William James, epistemology, and the notion of truth. He sums up the implications of QM as that "the complete description of nature at the atomic level was given by probability functions that referred not to underlying microscopic space-time realities but rather to macroscopic objects of sense experience." (p. 127) There are of course other intersections of QM with philosophy of mind, including issues of predictability (Dennett, 1984), dualism versus materialism versus idealism (Beloff, 1989; Smythies and Beloff, 1989), and the role and nature of consciousness in the material world (Wigner, 1979; Hodgson, 199 1).

The next 10 chapters are papers on aspects of cognitive science, which range from general metaphysical issues (such as "The Science of Consciousness and the Hard Problem") to very specific QM or chaos-mathematical models of neurobiological phenomena (such as "Phase Transitions in Learning"). The selections are generally quite interesting. There is not enough space to discuss them all, but a few specific comments can be made.

An often-mentioned point (on which there is no consensus among the experts) is that QM, the ultimate theory of materialism (a rock-bottom theory of matter), seems to bring in dualism through the fundamental concepts of the observer and the wave function collapse (Wigner, 1979). In his chapter, Chris King makes an interesting analogy relevant to the issue of free will. QM has several properties that begin to sound as if they might provide a substratum to

Book Reviews 473

free will, a concept that finds no comfortable place in pre-quantum science. Quantum processes are often nonlocal, unpredictable, and "ghostly" (Davies and Brown, 1986; Gribbin, 1995). A single particle in QM can occur anywhere within its wave function, despite a probability distribution strictly governing the aggregate. King proposes that free will in a single brain corresponds to quantum uncertainty in the ongoing brain state. He cites Eddington's 1935 estimate that "the uncertainty of position of a synaptic vesicle was as great as the width of the membrane, thus constituting a possible trigger for an unstable cascade." (p. 156) The approach of leveraging free will from unstable, nonlinear magnification cascades (2 la chaos theory) set off by quantum events has been much discussed. However, by itself it merely injects an element of randomness into behavior: Pure randomness coupled with deterministic brain al- gorithms is not what we really mean by "free will," although it may provide for one aspect of it-unpredictability. These ideas are analyzed by Dennett (1984), who argues that ultimately not only do we not know what we mean by free will, but also the popular concept of it that we hold to simply does not correspond to anything in the real world. A somewhat similar approach is used by John Eccles (Popper and Eccles, 1984), but there, the quantum uncertainty and chaotic amplification is a point of contact with a nonphysical consciousness; thus, an attempt is made to allow control by an immaterial mind while answer- ing conservation of energy arguments against dualistic interactionism.

G. Globus's paper (p. 195) contrasts the approaches of connectionism (the science of the properties of neural networks) with traditional representationalist information-flow-based A1 paradigms. He draws an analogy between optimiza- tion of the behavior of neural net with the minimization of a neural Lagrangian operator (a quantity associated with the velocity and acceleration of ionic currents in the brain). "I am nonlocal control and my meanings are cybernetic variables." (p. 195) His view is that consciousness is quantum fields "hoisted" by biosubstrates. It is not clear what this "hoisting" process is, and why only biological systems can accomplish it. There are many complex dynamical systems. What are the features of biology that make cognitive systems special? Globus then discusses the nature of the "I," or central controlling self; such a thing has not been found by neuroscience, and much discussion has taken place (Dennett, 1980; Hofstadter and Dennett, 1981) on whether this is an illusion and how (and why) this illusion is maintained. Globus's suggestion is that this issue is resolved by nonlocal control exhibited by quantum dynamical systems. He avoids category mistakes by identifying the "I" with being a brain under quantum control, not with the brain itself. A remaining problem of course is that for any physical mechanism (whether classical or quantum) proposed to account for the "I" or "self' is found, the natural response is still "yes, that is what explains the behavior of the system, but where is the first-person subjective experience, the unified self perspective we all share?" In light of this issue (which of course is viewed as a pseudoproblem by many), the identification of nonlocal controls of the brain's dynamics is more a contribution to the "easy" problem (i.e., basic neuroscience) than the hard problem (philosophy of mind).

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Jibu and Yasue (1995) present some interesting ideas that have been influential in several of the contributions to this volume. They develop models based on quantum ordering of water in the brain and show derivations of mathematical properties of such systems as they relate to dynamics of brain states. Their ideas are more fully treated in their book. There are a couple of confusing statements in their contribution though.

Molecular biology is a branch of biophysics developed phenomenologically by gather- ing fragmentary knowledge of molecule-based organic chemistry, quantum chemistry, and quantum statistical mechanics. Patching those fragments into a single system of knowledge is made by the longstanding and excellent intuitions of biologists. Never- theless, molecular biology does not succeed in explaining the essential aspects of the brain functioning directly related to the highly advanced mental "objects" (p. 207).

This is a mischaracterization of molecular biology, which is neither phe- nomenological nor fragmentary, nor does it focus on quantum chemistry. And of course, molecular biologists do not work toward explaining brain functions. Perhaps the authors are actually making a deeper claim: that the reductionist approaches of molecular neurobiology are insufficient to ever explain brain functioning. If so, I would have liked to see a discussion of their opinion of the theoretical shortcomings of the currently popular approaches based on the neurophysiology of real networks in the brain. Such models have worked fairly well in explaining aspects of visual processing and memory. I would also have liked to see some specific predictions of their model.

W. Freeman presents a very interesting paper on the neurodynamics of inten- tionality (his inroad of choice toward the mysterious edifice of consciousness). The paper discusses brain dynamics of voluntary actions, as well as representations in the brain. He concludes that "there are no representations in brains, only meanings" (p. 301). These issues have been given good discussion by Libet's group (Libet, 1993).

In summary, this is a very valuable book. Interestingly, it has no contributions by some prominent researchers in the area of quantum theory and cognitive science (such as Brian Josephson, Roger Penrose, Stuart Hameroff, etc.). On the one hand, this is good, because it left more room for contributions by ideas from very different schools of thought. Thus, this is a great complement to books such as Hameroff, 1987; Hameroff et al., 1996; Penrose, 1996. On the other hand, it would have been nice to have at least a couple works from those authors included for comparison. A concluding essay would also have been very welcome, if it had summarized the approaches and conclusions of the papers and compared and contrasted different approaches to the role of QM and chaos theory in cognitive science. An overview of future prospects and on-going research would also have been useful to outline possible areas for new and interested researchers.

In general, this book is quite useful but is more for the expert in the field rather than for the required reading of all psychology students that the intro-

Book Reviews 475

duction suggests. Most of the essays (except the excellent first two chapters of overviews) discuss topics at a level suitable for specialists but do not spell out the basics. Of course, this is impossible to do in a book with reasonable space constraints, given the complexity of all three of the subjects involved (QM, chaos theory, and cognitive science). Some of the papers (such as that by Sabelli et al.) are so densely packed with new ideas, models, and analogies that they are very hard to follow and read as a compressed, concise set of notes taken by someone who has had daily discussions with the author and under- stands the implications thoroughly. This book is best digested after familiarity with the contents of, for example, Churchland (1988), Gribbin (1995), Gleick (1988), Peitgen et al. (1992), etc. It is a great companion to Lockwood (1991), Searle (1985), Ramachandran and Josephson (1979), etc.

Michael Levin Cell Biology Department Haward Medical School

Boston, MA 021 15 levin @ whiz.med. haward.edu

References Barbi, M. (1998). Chaos & noise in biology and medicine. World Scientific Publishing. Beloff, J. (1989). The case for dualism. Churchland, P. (1988). Matter & consciousness. MIT Press. Davies, P., & Brown, J. (1986). The ghost in the atom: A discussion of the mysteries of quantum

physics. Cambridge University Press. Dennett, D. (1980). Brainstorms: Philosophical essays on mind & psychology. MIT Press. Dennett, D. (1984). Elbow room: The varieties offree will worth wanting. MIT Press. Gleick, J. (1988). Chaos: Making a new science. Viking Penguin. Gribbin, J. (1995). Schrodinger's kittens & the search for reality. Little, Brown & Company. Hameroff, S. (1987). Ultimate computing: Biomolecular consciousness & nano technology. Else-

vier Science. Hameroff, S., Kaszniak, A., & Scott, A. (1996). Toward a science of consciousness. MIT Press. Herbert, N. (1985). Quantum reality: Beyond the new physics. Doubleday. Hodgson, D. (1991). The mind matters: consciousness & choice in a quantum world. Oxford Uni-

versity Press. Hofstadter, D., & Dennett, D. (1981). The mind's I. Basic Books. Jibu, M., & Yasue, K. (1995). Quantum brain dynamics & consciousness: An introduction. John

Benjamins North America. Libet, B. (1993). Neurophysiology of consciousness: Selected papers of Benjamin Libet.

Birkhauser Boston. Liebovitch, L. (1998). Fractals & chaos simplified for the life sciences. Oxford University Press. Lockwood, M. (1991). Mind, brain & the quantum: The compound "I" . Blackwell. Peitgen, H., Jurgens, H., & Saupe, D. (1992). Chaos & fractals: New frontiers of science.

Springer-Verlag. Penrose, R. (1996). Shadows of the mind: A search for the missing science of consciousness. Ox-

ford University Press. Popper, K., & Eccles, J. (1984). The self & its brain: An argument for interactionism. Routledge. Ramachandran, V., & Josephson, B. (1979). Consciousness & the physical world. Elsevier Sci-

ence. Searle, J. (1985). Minds, brains & science. Harvard University Press. Smythies, J., & Beloff, J. (1989). The case for dualism. University Press of Virginia. West, B. (1990). Fractal physiology & chaos in medicine. World Scientific Publishing. Wigner, E. (1979). Symmetries & rejections. Ox Bow Press.

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The Abduction Enigma by Kevin D. Randle, Russ Estes, and William P. Cone. New York: Forge, 1999.4 16 pp. $25.95, hardcover.

The Abduction Enigma is unlike many other works on the "the abduction phenomenon," because it takes a critical look and does so by coalescing the perspectives of three authors with varied backgrounds. That does not mean that each author is a hardened "skeptic" or "debunker." The first author is a well-respected ufologist who is perhaps best known for his work on the Roswell case. It is noteworthy that although Randle believes that Roswell involved the crash and retrieval of at least one extraterrestrial craft by the U.S. government (what might be called a "reverse" alien abduction!), he agrees with his coauthors-who have experienced anomalous events themselves- that there is no scientific evidence for justifying the belief that the human race is being secretly (or not so secretly) abducted by aliens. The tone of the book gives the impression that the authors probably did not believe the extraterrestrial hypothesis was reasonable to begin with, but then again, many scientists hold apriori beliefs about topics they choose to investigate.

The authors have given a nice background from the historical and sociologi- cal aspects of the abduction phenomenon to modem trappings of this area of research. There is also a nice section that reviews the major researchers currently involved in this field. However, the main value of this book in my opinion is their largely comprehensive review and integration of a vast amount of academic literature on this and related topics. A study of their bibliography revealed that most material was drawn from many articles in both mainstream and specialized journals, as opposed to the content of popular books and newsletters. The authors make clear arguments against the reality of alien ab- ductions based on this collection of literature by showing how various evidence offered in support of the extraterrestrial hypothesis is weak to nonexistent. But the authors' valid arguments are also mixed with clear and sometimes superficial speculations on the validity of conventional explanations that are given as alternatives to the extraterrestrial hypothesis. Many readers might see this as a deficit, but I see it both as an asset and as an opportunity. In particular, many of their speculations on how the vast literature fits together to provide a conventional explanation for the abduction phenomenon can be falsified, so the authors have purposefully (or maybe unwittingly) given researchers new hypotheses to be tested. I was surprised that the well-ar- ticulated psychological theory proposed by Newman and Baumeister (1996) was neither specifically addressed at length nor even cited in this book. In fact, the entire issue of Psychological Inquiry (volume 7, 1996) included reactions to Newman and Baumeister's (1996) theory from some of the leading researchers in this area, as well as researchers in mainstream psychology. The reader might be asking why I would criticize the authors for this seemingly insignificant omission in light of the large number of articles they did consult. The Psychological Inquiry series of articles was in my opinion one of the most

Book Reviews 477

important published contributions to this field of study (along with Pritchard et al., 1994) for bringing this phenomenon to the attention of serious scientists. Consequently, I would have liked for it to have been incorporated into a book of this scope. Let me emphasize here that aspects of Newman and Baumeis- ~

I ter's (1996) arguments, such as the dangers of hypnotic regression and the likely psychological motivations that underpin abduction experiences, are discussed throughout the book, just not given the level of detail and amount of integration found in the original article.

The production of the book is of very high quality and includes an excellent bibliography, as well as a combined subject and author index. The contents of the book are largely accessible to a general audience, but with only 17 illustrations, the general reader may feel this book lacks "enough pictures." Personal- ly, I do not mind the lack of photographs because the clear and forceful writing style make the contents of the book extremely enjoyable to read and contem- plate. I enthusiastically recommend it to anyone who wants an excellent introduction to this field of research or as a source of potentially new hypotheses for future study. Perhaps the greatest compliment I can give the authors is that the book actually inspired me to begin designing studies to test some of the ideas contained therein. Even if humankind is not being abducted by aliens, there would still remain a rich area of investigation on how and why sociologi- cal, biological, and psychological variables interact to produce abduction experiences. Thus, the abduction phenomenon has value outside the immediate context of ufology and may ultimately provide unique insights into the mechanisms that govern imagination, cognition, and personality.

James Houran Department of Psychiatry

SZU School of Medicine P. 0. Box 5201, Springfield, IL 62 705

References ~ Newman, & Baumeister. (1996). Toward an explanation of the UFO abduction phenomenon: Hyp- I

notic elaboration, extraterrestrial sadomasochism, and spurious memories. Psychological In- quiry, 7, 99-1 26.

Pritchard, A., Pritchard, D. E., Mack, J. E., Kasey, P., & Yapp, C . (Eds.). (1994). Alien discussions: Proceedings of the abduction study conference. Cambridge, MA: North Cambridge Press.

Life on Other Worlds: The 20th-Century Extraterrestrial Life Debate by Steven J. Dick. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998. 290 + xiii pp. $24.95 (c). ISBN 0-521-62012-0.

Steven Dick is an astronomer and historian of science at the U.S. Naval Ob- servatory. He has served as historian for the now-defunct National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

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(SETI) program and was a member of a NASA workshop that examined the cultural aspects of success in SETI, including the short-term and long-term implications of contact with extraterrestrials. Unlike most others with such cre- dentials, Dick also takes UFO reports seriously, is willing to say so publicly, and, if gently, chide establishment science for giving the subject short shrift. See more about this and its implications below.

Life on Other Worlds is an abridged edition of Dick's Biological Universe: The Twentieth-Century Extraterrestrial Life Debate and the Limits of Science (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996), undertaken, in his words, "in an attempt to reach a wider audience and.. .to integrate.. .new discoveries into the story." He has succeeded in giving us a marvelous volume of interest and value to expert and intelligent laymen alike.

Discovery of extrasolar planets and the ensuing debate over what this means, the continuing controversy over the possible discovery of microfossils in Martian meteorites, and the recent identification of water in other meteorit- ic material are but the latest developments in a debate that is centuries old. Dick provides a brief but substantive review of the course of the debate and range of thought on the subject of extraterrestrial life from their earliest ori- gins. Then, beginning with the Mars observations and theories of Percival Lowell in the late 19th century, he focuses on modern times.

Lowell's claim to have discovered canals on the Red Planet, the for a time hope-raising results of the Viking spacecraft biological experiments, the Mars- rock donnybrook, and SETI have titillated and at times consumed science and the public. Similarly, centrally related matters such as the search for planets orbiting stars other than our own, the quest for explanations for UFO reports, and the pursuit of understanding of the mechanisms giving rise to life continue to excite wide interest and controversy.

The themes of life beyond our home planet, the discovery of such life, and, more often and usually more chillingly presented, its discovery of us have been fodder for science fiction authors from H. G. Wells and Kurd Lasswitz to Arthur C. Clarke and Robert Heinlein. Hollywood, too, has capitalized on broad public fascination with the subject, resulting in some of the most popular films of all time, among them E. T , Close Encounters of the Third Kind, and Independence Day.

In Life on Other Worlds, Dick details in readable and nontechnical prose the history of the modern ET-life1ET-intelligence (ETI) debate in which these popular manifestations are rooted. This is not just a chronological recitation. Dick contributes an important dimension to the understanding of the questions and theories involved by placing them in historical perspective, showing how the concept of ETI arises from a "biophysical cosmology" that seeks confirmation no less than do competing physical cosmologies. In so doing, he very effectively demonstrates this is a subject at the very limits of the reach of science. Thus, the quest for confirmation is not only a pursuit of new scientific knowledge and a validation of ideas central to modern biology and other disci-

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plines, but it also offers a dramatic "happening now" window on the nature and limitations of science itself.

Dick's chapter "The UFO Controversy and the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis" provides a snapshot of the problems and promise arising from that nature and those limitations. In the opening paragraph, Dick notes, "Between public gullibility and scientific closed-mindedness, between perception and reality, lies an important chapter in the history of the extraterrestrial life debate and a story of the limits of science under the most trying circumstances." He then proceeds in a mere 32 pages to provide a remarkably meaty and well-balanced account of 50 years of ufological history, illuminating along the way the sources of scientific reluctance on the subject.

Wrapping up his consideration of the UFO problem and its linkage to the ETI question, Dick writes,

[Tlhe history of the debate finds abundant blame on all sides: The unwillingness of many scientists to actively engage the UFO phenomenon is certainly understandable in terms of peer pressure and career advancement, but the desire of some to squash the subject without considering the evidence flies in the face of scientific curiosity that supposedly led them to science to begin with. On the other side, the outrageous claims and hoaxes that presently flood the field are unworthy of scientific attention, and no one should be surprised if scientists fail to engage every will-of-the-wisp [sic] report. In the middle of these extremes may yet be a phenomenon that requires study, if only one can find it in the midst of the twin human failings of perception and deception (p. 167).

So how can those of us who are engaged in serious study of UFOs clearly identify that phenomenon (or, more likely, phenomena) and give it scientific salience that is reasonably impossible to ignore? Taking this a step further, how can those of us who are of the opinion that some UFO reports are of observations of the handiwork of ETI and, in some cases, that ETI itself, bring ufology back into the scientific ET-life debate?

The answer was forcefully suggested by physicist and pioneering SET1 advocate Philip Morrison, in his paper for the famous 1969 American Associa- tion for the Advancement of Science UFO symposium. As Dick summarizes,

[Morrison,] with his penchant for zeroing in on the significant issues, argued that the debate came down to the nature of scientific evidence. "Reproducibility" was not enough, for one could not reproduce an aurora or eclipse, nor was "hard evidence" enough. The prime requirement for responsible evidence, he held, drawing a parallel with [that favorite of ufologists] the 19th-century acceptance of meteorites as extraterrestrial, was "independent and multiple chains of evidence, each capable of satisfying a link-by-link test of meaning" (pp. 158-1 59).

Morrison also went on to contend, as Dick puts it, that "[nleither the extraterrestrial hypothesis nor any other explanation of UFOs had multiple chains of evidence or a link-by-link test." In this reviewer's opinion, this remains an open question, and it should be taken up by ufologists as their chal-

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lenge and, ultimately, their challenge to science. To put it unscientifically, or perhaps protoscientifically, the shades of J. Allen Hynek and James McDonald are demanding it of us.

Life on Other Worlds is, of course, about more than UFOs. However, the polit- ical, social, personal, institutional, and economic dynamics bearing on the UFO controversy within the precincts of science dramatically and sharply reflect those surrounding the broader issues of the extraterrestrial-life debate. In turn, these illuminate important down-to-earth truths that bear on the pursuit of other subjects on or just inside the fringe of scientific acceptability. The members of the Society for Scientific Exploration-who by definition are engaged in or at the very least are deeply interested in matters currently at the limits of and perhaps beyond the reach of science-can learn a good deal about such "unfortu- nate" realities from this book, a useful bonus of this enjoyable and well-crafted volume.

Karl 7: Pflock P. 0. Box 93338, Albuquerque, NM 87199-3338

Ktperehwon @aol.com

Shattering the Myths of Darwinism by Richard Milton. Rochester, VT: Park Street Press, 1997. xi + 308 pp. $24.95 (c). ISBN 0-89281-732-1.

Richard Milton is an English journalist and design engineer. It is important to mention at the outset that he is not a creationist; neither is he a mainstream scientist. Rather he is consigned to that limbo between religious conviction and the certainties of doctrinaire science. That he is not a prisoner of paradigms can be seen in his earlier book, Alternative Science, in which he is concerned with parapsychology, cold fusion, and other subjects on the borderlands of the scientific endeavor. In Shattering the Myths of Darwinism, however, Milton aims directly at the heart of modern science: Evolution is the idea that things, especially biological things, change and develop. Usually these changes are from simple to complex, as from bacterium to human.

Unquestionably, biological evolution is one of the most powerful and persuasive of all scientific paradigms. It is right up there with the big bang theory and plate tectonics. Despite the implications of his title, Milton does not shat- ter evolution per se; rather, he attacks the currently dominant idea of the mechanism of biological evolution-that is, random mutation and natural selection. Here are his own words:

I accept that there is persuasive evidence for evolution, but I do not accept that there is any significant evidence that the mechanism driving evolution is the neo-Darwinian mechanism of chance mutation coupled with natural selection.. . I do not believe that the earth is only a few thousand years old. I present evidence that the currently accepted methods of dating are seriously flawed and are supported by Darwinists only because they provide the billions of years required by Darwinist theories (p. xi).

Book Reviews 48 1

These words from the preface to the U.S. edition were written in response to the "hate" reviews that appeared when the book was published in England. Richard Dawkins, a luminary in the Darwinist camp, suggested that Milton needs "psychiatric help." This all means that the book is a wonderful repast for anomalists. In just 5 minutes, one can see why Dawkins and other evolution- ists panicked. Milton systematically and objectively (in my view) reviews and evaluates the facts of geology, paleontology, and zoology. Conclusion: The Darwinist paradigm is untenable.

Milton's specific doubts concerning the prevailing evolution paradigm generally parallel those that the creationists have been expressing for decades. The difference is that Milton avoids claims of supernatural, "intelligent" involvement with the machinery of evolution. He assumes the development of life is susceptible to rational scientific inquiry.

Geology is an avocation for Milton, and he understandably zeroes in on the dating of strata. Most scientists are quite comfortable with the claim that radiometric techniques have once and for all accurately dated the earth and those onionlike layers of sediment that gird our planet. Milton informs us that this assumption is "entirely false."

First of all, geologists do not radiometrically date strata directly. They can only date the igneous rocks, such as lavas and volcanic ashes, which are in- terbedded with the shales, sandstones, etc. Milton asserts that such dating by association is unreliable. Secondly, radiometric dating involves the measurements of by-products of radioactive decay. There is much room for error here. This can be seen in the world's two largest deposits of uranium ore in Canada and Zaire. These contain considerable quantities of lead-208 but little thori- um-232. Such ratios are not consistent with the decay of uranium. Milton says that such salient anomalies cast doubt on all of radiometric dating.

The gist of Milton's lengthy scrutiny of radiometric dating is that the evolu- tionists cannot attach reliable dates to the planet's sedimentary layers, or even to the planet as a whole. These uncertainties make it difficult to draw evolutionary family trees.

Furthermore, these sedimentary layers, as Milton likes to point out, occur only in isolated patches here and there. Nowhere can one find a complete geological column such as those printed as facts in all the textbooks.

Just as patchy is the fossil record imbedded in these sedimentary layers. This is illustrated in the well-known fossil record of the horse. Milton claims (as do some other scientists) that this fixture of the Darwinian argument is really con- cocted from incomplete skeletons assembled from widely separated localities. Milton worries about this as follows:

It is, however, more than a little disturbing to learn that the descent of horses is being offered as the decisive evidence in favor of evolution on the strength of so little real physical evidence, and with so many gaps filled only by speculation (p. 104).

482 Book Reviews

He is also concerned about the stubborn fixity of species; that is, the apparent limits met during breeding experiments conducted with many insects, birds, and mammals. This "genetic homeostasis" was actually recognized by Darwin himself and has been confirmed many times over, as in experiments with the fruit fly Drosophila. In other words, there are puzzling barriers that seem to thwart biological change.

Many similar "problems" for the evolutionist can be found in Shattering the Myths of Darwinism. One more should suffice here: the famous finches of the Galapagos. Widely advertised as a proof of speciation 2 la the Darwinian mechanism of random mutation plus natural selection, ornithologists really find that these 13 "full" species are quite confusing. They vary morphologically within a species according to environmental pressures and frequently hybridize to produce vigorous offspring. Milton quotes the ornithologist David Lack as stating, "in no other birds are the differences between species so ill-defined." Apparent- ly Darwin's finches are not clear-cut proof of Darwinism after all.

All of Milton's examples are chosen to undermine one's faith in the current evolution paradigm. But even Milton is certain that species do change into new species; that is, they evolve. It is that elusive mechanism that is at issue in his mind. He asserts, for example, that natural selection is not the "engine" of evolution. Natural selection really reduces biodiversity as it screens out the unfit. In contrast, evolution actually increases diversity.

Having cast doubts in our minds about the efficacy of small random muta- tions plus natural selection to produce speciation, Milton turns his attention to other potential mechanisms that might create diversity. Some are old ideas while some are new. Lamarck is first on his list and is not discarded, as is the usual custom. The "hopeful monsters" of Richard Goldschmidt are not far behind in Milton's mind. Also considered are the more recent "directed mutation" experiments of John Cairns. Even the morphogenetic fields of Rupert Sheldrake are brought into the discussion. Strangely, though, the work of Lynn Margulis on the potential role of endosymbiosis is not mentioned as a mechanism of evolutionary change.

When one finishes the book, one is left with the shards of Darwinism and no obvious, convincing way of forging a replacement paradigm. But Milton's title promises only iconoclastics, so we should not penalize him for not producing a new synthesis. In truth, Shattering the Myths of Darwinism is well written and objective. After reading it, you will no longer meekly accept that we now know all there is to know about how, when, and why new branches sprouted on the tree of life.

William Corliss Sourcebook Project

RO. Box 107, Glen Arm, MD 21057

Book Reviews 483

Dark Matter, Missing Planets and New Comets (Paradoxes Resolved, Ori- gins Illuminated), Revised Edition by Tom Van Flandern. Berkeley, CA: North Atlantic Books, 1999. 551 pp. $22.50, paperback. ISBN 1-55643-268- 2, tvf @ mindspring.com Suppression Stories by Brian Martin. Wollongong, Australia: Fund for Intel- lectual Dissent, 1997. 17 1 pp. Paperback. ISBN 0-646-30349-X, http://www. uow.edu. aulart s/sts/bmartin/dissent/documents/

Astronomy and its theoretical outgrowth astrophysics are not in the popular mind regarded as revolutionary sciences in the Kuhnian sense; yet we might recall that the observation of the Jovian moons four centuries ago, the extraterrestrial origin of meteorites two centuries ago, the confirmation of light bending near the sun early this century, and the recent impacts of comet Shoe- maker-Levi 9 on Jupiter mark four major changes in paradigm over the relatively short course of science.

Tom Van Flandern is a Yale-educated Celestial Mechanic and former U.S. naval observer. He notes, according to a previous reviewer (Keay, 1993), that current observations within the solar system suggest the speed of gravity is "at least 20 times the velocity of light." Does that enliven your sense of space- time? Read on and discover that asteroids and comets are creatures of orbits (chapter 6) originating not from an unformed planet (the asteroid belt) and the almost inconceivably large Oort sphere (Van Flandern calculates it would hold all the stars in the Milky Way), but from the ejecta of a recent (about 3 million years ago) catastrophic event in or near the asteroid belt. As an anthropologist with a strong interest in astronomy, I cannot judge the ultimate merit of either the current or Van Flandern's alternative hypotheses. I can, however, observe that some of Van Flandern's hypotheses predict current reports of novel data. Astronomy is among the oldest human professions. Insofar as humans are po- litical, the proclivity of power elites and bureaucracies to perpetuate themselves, and the corruptibility of humans in the face of and even more so in the defense of institutional power, are proverbial. Consider the coincidence between the Egyptian realignment of temples and the period of unrest between the old and new kingdoms (Tompkins, 197 1): a cost of the discovery of preces- sion?

Did our planetary system reconfigure itself, 3 million years ago, into our nine (eight?) planet system, with the moons of Venus and X-Mercury and Mars, respectively-migrating to solar orbits? An earlier reviewer (Castle, 1994) finds many of the issues raised by Van Flandern interesting but knows of "no.. .mechanism that would cause a planetary breakup." I believe the same objection was raised against Wegener7s continental drift.

Why is Iapetus dichotomously dark and light if not from some event within the solar system? Earth could have been on the far side to it. At 3 million years ago, no "death star" binary of the sun with a 26-million-year periodicity (of the "great dyings," the last roughly 13 million years ago) is implicated. Since the

484 Book Reviews

publication in early 1999 of Van Flandern7s book, readers of Science have been treated to news of three additional members of our solar system with bisected terrain: Mars (May 28), Ganymede (October I), and Triton (October 15).

Triton has "all the craters.. .on one side" of a surface "possibly less than 10 million years old," based on the reanalysis of 1989 data. "About 40% of Ganymede's surface is covered by dark, heavily cratered terrain, and the remainder.. . bright terrain."

New Mars Orbital Surveyor (MOS) Mars topography shows six enormous shield volcanoes, three great circular impact basins (five of the former roughly antipodal to the greatest of the latter), the northern hemisphere with featureless, abyssal (?) lowlands and heavily cratered (moonlike) highlands to the south. If the shield of the five volcanoes were lowlands, the northlsouth topo- graphic divide would be very nearly half and half. Van Flandern mentions di- chotomous Martian terrain in support of the ex-planet X hypothesis, but what we see with new MOS data is not supportive of that hypothesis. Given featureless highlands, it might be another matter. And given the apparent falsification of the "face" on Mars (Pierri, 1999) by MOS photographic data, one wonders what other surprises are to be found in the not yet disclosed Cydonia photographic data.

Why is an anthropologist reviewing this "revised" edition (of a book published 7 years ago, with four new chapters appended) rather than an astronomer? The luck of the draw? Perhaps, but let me report the puzzlement of the research librarian who assisted in my preparation for this review. "Van Flandern has written columns in several astronomy magazines," he told me. "None of which has reviewed his book. I found that rather strange."

If the Journal of Scientific Exploration reader finds this reception of Van Flandern's book strange, let me recommend Brian Martin's Suppression Sto- ries as a primer on the structure of intellectual change. Martin (see Martin, 1998), like the late Thomas Kuhn, is a physicist "gone soft." But while Kuhn turned his analytical talents toward the obscure early histories of physical sciences, Martin examines a far more accessible current intellectual landscape. Of course, he finds "patterns of suppression" to be among a host of patterns the whistle-blower or intellectual revolutionary may expect to encounter, to include the threat of defamation suits in Australia, the author's home.

Because Martin has homogenized, by the sheer breadth of his clearly expli- cated sample, the individuals and their various ideas, a certain dispassion per- vades the book. I suppose this is in part a response to continuing (after Kuhn7s) criticism of the social and anthropological sciences relative to physical sciences, and a successful one. Those ignorant of recurring patterns in history and society very probably have no hope of shaping them. Martin knows this, I think, and offers the intellectual explorer a reliable, methodical reconnoiter of potential pitfalls, ambushes, and outright attacks or, as often, ringing silences.

Ignoring Van Flandern's broadside against the current, accretionary model is the stuff of the social construction of science! Certainly the fit of new data, or its misfit, should drive our hypotheses; yet, I found his epistemology vague

Book Reviews 485

in some areas. Van Flandern, unlike Martin, raises more questions than he answers, which can be a virtue in a book and useful in the search for novel implications in the stream of data from continuing exploration of the solar system. Both books have references and indices.

We know an order of magnitude, if not several, more about our solar system than we did a century ago. Have our hypotheses kept pace? Van Flandern argues they have not. If one supposes they have, then one may enjoy Mason & Dixon more than Dark Matter, Missing Planets and New Comets. Or one might read Suppression Stories first and enjoy all three.

Gordon Strasenburgh 2680 Everett Street, North Bend, OR 97459

References Castle, Paul R. (1994). Review, February. Rejlector, the Astronomical League Newsletter. Keay, Colin. (1993). Review, September. Australian and New Zealand Physicist. Martin, Brian. (1 998). Strategies for Dissenting Scientists. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 12,605. Pierri, David C. (1999). Geomorphology of Selected Massifs on the Plains of Cydonia, Mars.

Journal of Scientific Exploration, 13,401. Tompkins, Peter. (1971). Secrets of the Great Pyramid. New York: HarperRow.

The Powerful Placebo-From Ancient Priest to Modern Physician by Arthur K. Shapiro and Elaine Shapiro. Baltimore, MD, and London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997. The Placebo Effect-An Interdisciplinary Exploration Edited by Anne Har- rington. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1997. Paperback, 1999.

Placebo is something of an oddity in modern Western culture. This is a culture self-consciously taking science as authoritative, congratulating itself that its medical practice is based on science and condescending toward beliefs for which there is no concrete evidence. Psychic phenomena are decried and pooh-poohed. Yet the placebo phenomenon is fully acknowledged even as it seems to establish that nonmaterial influences-psychological if not "psy- chic9'-can effect powerful material results.

This incongruity comes even more sharply into focus when scientific medicine accepts psychosomatic illness as entirely real while dismissing faith healing as superstition: those are surely but different consequences of the same sort of interaction between psyche and body. Incongruous too is that the term "placebo" carries the negative connotation of "sham treatment" at the same time as its effects are beneficial to the recipient or experiencer of the placebo ( ~ 2 3 6 ) . '

' Page numbers in Shapiro are given with an "S" and in Harrington with an "H."

486 Book Reviews

Though the placebo phenomenon has long been acknowledged, it has remained until recently little studied, let alone understood; only in 1990 was "placebo effect" included as a reference in the computer files of the National Library of Medicine (S 136). Salient questions about it remain conundrums:

What range of illnesses or symptoms can placebo cure or suppress? With symptoms that placebo can remove, what is its rate of success? Is placebo more effective under some circumstances than under others; and if so, what are they? Are some people more likely than others to benefit from placebo?

That list is far from exhaustive. The placebo phenomenon poses a fundamental question that philosophy has tangled with for millennia and that science has tiptoed around, namely "the mind-body problem": what are the relations between on the one hand the human mind, consciousness, thought, and on the other hand the electrical and chemical happenings in the brain that, we believe, are somehow associated with thoughts and feelings?

During the 1990s, people from various disciplines began to discuss placebo and its implications. Two books offer intriguing glimpses into what has been learned and what large mysteries remain. The Placebo Effect-An Interdisci- plinary Exploration lives up to its title, as does The Power$ul Placebo-From Ancient Priest to Modern Physician. The first reports the proceedings of a conference but, unlike all too many proceedings, is so very well edited that it makes an excellent book. The second reviews a lifetime of learning about placebo by A. K. Shapiro, one of the pioneers in its study; it is a labor of love, unfortunately marred by repetitiveness and jargon but fully rewarding the reader's willingness to stay with it.

Together, these two books-with their copious references-reveal an interdisciplinary research community in the process of forming around a topic whose progressive understanding will profoundly affect our lives and thoughts. However, the subject is a collection of noteworthy facts and of enig- mas to research more than a coherent body of knowledge.

"It is a mystery how a ubiquitous treatment used since antiquity was unknown, unnamed, and unidentified until recently," Shapiro begins. "It is even more remarkable because this is the only treatment common to all societies and cultures."

That treatment, of course, is placebo. For us, "placebo" typically means a sugar pill, or the inactive ingredient

used in clinical trials to test the effectiveness of a new drug. Shapiro points out that it can also be magic: "religious rituals (such as prayer and exorcism); in- cantation.. .and cleansing the mind by talking out the evil (as in psychoanalysis and psychotherapy)." Every interaction between someone who is regarded as a healer and someone who desires to be healed may summon a placebo response. Shapiro, himself a psychiatrist, reveals that within his profession, the question is sometimes openly argued whether all psychotherapy may not owe

Book Reviews 487

its effectiveness to the power of placebo (S47). That "no one therapy is better than another" (S100) tends to support that suggestion (S103, S105, S120, S 121, H229, H230).

The very attempt to define "placebo" is enlightening; and once the phenomenon is fully understood, the term itself will become obsolete (S42). It is important to recognize that "placebo therapy may be used with or without knowledge that it is a placebo." Drugs given at physiologically ineffective dosages are thereby placebos. A sometimes useful alternative term is "nonspecific": placebo presumably summons a mechanism capable of ameliorating a wide variety of symptoms, which stands in contrast to drugs or surgical procedures aimed specifically at a particular disorder.

Scientific cognizance of placebo dates only from the late 1930s, when Gold introduced the "blind test" to control for placebo effects and Houston suggested that the history of medicine is largely that of the placebo effect. Shapiro's historical survey in the first chapter of his book amply justifies that suggestion: Such ventures as homeopathy and Christian science may be quackery so far as "modern" medicine is concerned, but they were unexceptionable in earlier times.

It is chastening to be reminded that controlled clinical trials, double-blind procedures, and statistical analysis were almost nonexistent before the 1950s (S34, S96, chap. 7). It is startling to discover that such testing is far from being routinely reliable: "Inert placebos frequently are inadequate controls in double-blind studies" because both patients and doctors are often able to differen- tiate the real drug from the placebo. The real drug typically has a variety of discernible effects (S35, S93, chap. 9). Apart from that, it is by no means universally agreed that controlled double-blind trials are even desirable, humane, or a proper part of physicians caring for their patients (S 168f, S 1780.

Without properly controlled trials, however, one cannot know whether a treatment is directly effective physiologically or whether its success draws on the placebo response. Since even nowadays properly double-blind studies are the exception, all beliefs about the efSicacy of treatments used in earlier years are based on anecdotal evidence (S60ff). From that angle, the cupping and leeching used in Western medicine up to the 19th century is entirely comparable to the treatments used by shamans and witch doctors: they worked some of the time, and when they did, it was through stimulating the placebo response. On the other hand, one should not exaggerate the ancient wisdom based on long experience that, some say, identified useful herbal and other remedies. Nowadays we know how delicate and complex the process of extracting the physiologically active ingredients is, and how much raw material needs to be processed to obtain a useful amount of drug; it seems unlikely that there ever was much, if indeed any, properly standardized use of natural remedies. Most folk medicine probably owes its successes to the placebo effect (S7 lff).

Facile description of placebo as the effect of suggestibility founders on the fact that "there is little correlation between tests of suggestibility in a laborato-

488 Book Reviews

ry situation and the placebo effect in a clinical setting" (S38). Some people react favorably to drug placebo but not to psychotherapeutic placebo, and with others it is the reverse (S40). The ability to summon the placebo effect seems to be universal, however. A striking corollary is that the beneficial effect of any material treatment, drug, or surgery is the summation of (nonspecific) placebo and specific "scientific" treatment (S41): "Most drugs are useful only in a range in which psychological factors can occur" (S77). In this day of "managed care," it is vital to recognize that "bedside manner" is not an optional bonus to effective treatment: personable or charismatic physicians may actually cure more patients than brusque scientific technicians who operate on as- sembly-line principles (H241): "The placebo is powerless without the physician" (H39, H40, H52, H88). It may be, for instance, that the simple action of scheduling follow-up appointments reinforces therapeutic interventions (H84).

The same line of thought tells us that some charming well-intentioned quacks may benefit people by stimulating their placebo response even as well- intentioned mainstream practitioners may unwittingly kill their patients because the orthodox treatment is actually harmful. In historical times, that is illustrated by the greater success homeopaths had in treating cholera than did mainstream physicians: the latter's brutal conventional treatments of bloodlet- ting and the like harmed the patients, whereas the "ineffective" homeopathic remedies at least did no harm (S59, S60).

Even deeper questions with important practical consequences are raised. Given that the placebo response is almost always available, and that it is in most instances at least a useful adjunct to surgical or physiological treatment, what influence is exerted by the increasingly mandated "informed consent" patients must tender before treatment? To what extent is a patient's confidence in a treatment reduced by the enumeration of all the risks and side effects? To what extent does obtaining informed consent hinder a beneficial placebo effect (H225, H237)?

Placebo is powerful beyond common knowledge, though common knowledge does include the apparent ability of many people to delay their death until such a significant occasion as a birthday or religious holiday has passed (H231, H232). The placebo can be as effective as standard physical treatments, for example, in the treatment of peptic ulcer or high levels of lipids in the blood (H41, H42). Moreover certain surgical procedures, it turns out, were effective only through stimulating a placebo response: ligation of internal mammary arteries as treatment for angina pectoris, for example (S83), or pre- frontal lobotomy (S9 1). Indeed, "surgical procedures are probably more likely to be placebos than is drug treatment [! !I, which is subject to more rigorous criteria of controlled study" (S84); moreover, "controlled trials in surgery- which may involve the use of invasive procedures, such as sham surgery as a control for transplants-are more difficult to devise and ethically more difficult to justify" (S85).

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"Psychotherapy, whether provided by psychiatrists, social workers, nurse therapists, clerics, or other professionals, is the treatment most subject to placebo effects. Even more placebo prone are the myriad treatments encom- passed by alternative medicine, faith healing, and quackery" (S85). The main focus of Shapiro's chapter 5 is "the possibility that psychotherapy is the major placebo of the late 20th century" (S86). Even medical psychiatry may work largely through placebo: drugs treat depression with an effectiveness of between 45% and 80%, but placebo works in 30% to 50% of cases, making it at about two thirds as effective as the drugs (S93)-and typically more desirable because of the fewer harmful side effects.

New Age or religious enthusiasts should not be tempted to cite the powerful placebo as proof of some spiritual or supernatural human essence, however: creatures other than humans exhibit the placebo response (H5, H6)-a finding that will seem surprising only to people who do not handle domesticated animals or who have never owned pets. Furthermore, the placebo effect is not invariably benign or desirable: placebo can induce side effects (S79f) and even be toxic (S154)-discussed in the chapter "The Nocebo Phenomenon" (H56-H76). In one study, misinformation about a drug's action reduced its effectiveness by half (H67); in another instance, a patient's rebellion against doctor and treatment made a drug much less effective (H228, H229). Some surgeons believe they should not operate on patients who are convinced they will die during the operation (H62); medical students, it is well known, often take on symptoms of the diseases about which they are learning (H61); there have been epidemics of hysterical illness. (H63-64) "Voodoo death" by witch- craft in Africa and Haiti has been reported, and by "bone pointing" among Australian aborigines (H65-66).

How then are we to understand the placebo phenomenon? Not through medical science alone, not through psychology alone, not through any one intellectual discipline alone. But interdisciplinary thought is fraught with "method- ological, epistemological, even metaphysical tensions involved in the attempt to arrive at an understanding greater than the sum of its parts," Harrington points out (H7, H8), particularly "when one attempts to move between the divide that separates the explanatory strategies of the so-called cultural or hermeneutic sciences (roughly concerned with 'meaning') and the so-called natural sciences (roughly committed to explanations in terms of 'mechanism')."

The first chapter in the book edited by Harrington is by the Shapiros; it is in a sense a synopsis of their own book (which was published later). A salutary warning is given: "When a treatment is a placebo, it is very easy to counter- feit," and since (as the Shapiros show in detail) much conventional medical practice was the (unknowing) administration of placebo (though less so in more recent times), one can understand why quacks flourish and unconven- tional treatments can often claim comparable success rates with mainstream practice. Summarizing the few studies that have been made of the placebo

/

490 Book Reviews

phenomenon, the Shapiros raise an intriguing question: because placebo response helps us heal ourselves (or at least withstand illness and pain), has evolution selected in favor of those who can summon it most powerfully?

Howard Spiro points out how little is known about placebo except that it works. Its use in clinical trials may mask important phenomena (H42, H43). The application of piece-meal information from single studies can cause clinical practice to swing pendulum-like, as in the prescription of milk for amelio- ration of ulcer symptoms, to its being regarded as bad for ulcer patients, to again being recommended-all without knowing whether it works as an antacid or as a placebo (H48).

Robert Ader (chap. 7 in Harrington) considers evidence that the placebo response may be at least in part an instance of conditioned response.

The variety of contributions in this edited book, from people versed in dis- parate disciplines, underscores what a challenge to our understanding is posed by the placebo phenomenon. It is not unlike the riddle of claimed psychic phenomena and of issues central to attempted "scientific" studies of human beings: one wants to measure independently instances and degrees of the phenomenon's occurrence on the one hand and on the other those factors one suspects to be causative of it. However, one cannot separately measure those suspected factors; in many instances, one has to rely on self-reporting as mea- sures of both the various factors and the placebo effect itself. Placebo, it seems natural to believe, should be more effective for people who can summon high degrees of expectation, hope, belief in the efficacy of the treatment, and confidence in their physician or healer; but those can hardly be assessed other than by self-reporting. And moreover, when they are measured in some nonclinical situation, one cannot know whether they will be manifest in the same way in a clinical setting. Even further, studies of placebo often pose ethical issues (H237ff), all the more so with nocebo phenomena: would one want to design and carry out a controlled double-blind study of the effectiveness of bone pointing in killing Australian aborigines?

Placebo or nocebo effects are inferred when-and only when-current medical knowledge offers no biological or physiological reason for what was observed to happen. But this is fallible because current knowledge is not final knowledge, and moreover, it presumes that placebo/nocebo effects do not occur with physiological ones, a most unlikely contingency (H68, H69). The problem is illustrated by the commonly made notional differentiation between placebo response and "spontaneous remission" (H167), which some might judge are actually the same thing.

Thus, placebo brings into focus fundamental issues about human existence, in particular the Cartesian view of mind-body relations (H187). Peptides, it seems, are involved in placebo responses; and because the same peptides occur throughout the body as those in the brain, the possibility is raised that the mind "resides" throughout the body and not just in association with the brain (H85). Perhaps some such train of thought points to that reconciliation of Western and

Book Reviews 49 1

Eastern medicine and thought that has so often been suggested (H233, H236). That and other salient issues raised by the placebo phenomenon-ethical, philosophical, and practical-are discussed in the very well edited "conversa- tion" that forms the final chapter of Harrington's book. It ought to be required reading for everyone involved in medical science, clinical care, and the management side of the health business.

Henry H. Bauer Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

[email protected]

Synchronicity, Science, and Soul-Making by Victor Mansfield. Chicago: Open Court Publishing, 1995. ISBN 0-8 126-9304-3.

Dr. Victor Mansfield's Synchronicity, Science, and Soul-Making is an attempt to unify Jungian psychology, modern physics, and Buddhist philosophy into a single construct. The book is split into three parts: an introduction to Jungian philosophy, a section exploring the connections with this philosophy to physics, and a comparison of Jungian philosophy to Buddhism, with the author's attempt to develop a philosophical model for synchronicity. It is an excellent book for people who are either looking for information on Jungian psychology or are already knowledgeable on the subject and would like to read an interesting discussion of uniting Jungian philosophy and Eastern philosophy.

The first section does a very good job of discussing and explaining the rather difficult topic of Jungian philosophy and synchronicity. Synchronicity defined is an "acausal connection through meaning." Consider this example often used: A woman is psychologically inaccessible because of her belief in strict rational explanations of the world around her. One day as she is talking with Dr. Jung about a dream she had the night before about a scarab beetle, what should fly in the window at that exact time is a beetle whose color is quite close to that of a scarab. This punctured a hole in her rationalism and allowed her to continue her therapy. In this example, the woman talking about her dream and the appearance of the beetle would be considered acausal because they were completely separate events. What makes it an example of synchronicity is that the event had a special meaning to her and consequently allowed her to continue her spiritual progression.

The author gives many other examples of synchronicity experiences throughout the book. This is quite useful, as synchronicity is a rather difficult topic to talk about without examples. After discussing which examples would involve synchronicity, he discusses which topics would not involve synchronicity. This is where the subject of parapsychology comes up and is also the first of several instances where he separates his interpretation of the nature of synchronicity from the strict Jungian conception. Dr. Mansfield asserts that

492 Book Reviews

even though parapsychology deals with acausal events, such as ESP, it is the lack of meaning surrounding a particular occurrence that prevents it from being synchronicity. In fact, unlike parapsychology, the author asserts that it is virtually impossible to scientifically verify synchronicity because of the necessity of meaning in the occurrence. An observer could verify that an event occurred, but not the possible meaning to another observer. But what supplies this meaning? The author goes into detail about this, describing how the ego, superego, and the unconscious interrelate to create and interpret the meaning in a synchronicity experience.

At this point, the author shifts gears and discusses how physics can be brought to bear on this subject to perhaps gain some insight. He discusses the history of science by comparing Dante with Galileo and contrasting their world views. For instance, in Dante's world, the world was permeated by God's intelligence, and thus acausal orderliness was the rule, not the exception. But once the Galilean mode of analysis begins to dominate scientific thought, the inherent reality of a subjective principle is denied. It is this "pendulum swing" that he asserts today has caused surge of the New Age movement as an unconscious compensation, or attempt of the unconscious to influence the ego through synchronicity to progress the process of individuation. The author asserts that synchronicity forces us to acknowledge the inherent interconnectedness of matter and psyche.

To reinforce this argument, Dr. Mansfield turns to relativity, electromagnet- ism, and quantum mechanics to demonstrate how the observer is interconnected in a basic way with the world. As an example of this, he gives a detailed explanation of Bell's paradox and how it shows the nonlocality and acausal nature of physics. Although he did show physical examples in which nature is apparently acausal at times, his attempt to tie it back to synchronicity as an explanation was found a bit wanting.

The last part of the book is a description of Buddhist thought (Middle Way Tibetan Buddhism to be specific) and its relationship to synchronicity and Jun- gian philosophy. This was one of the most intriguing parts of the book. Al- though his descriptions and explanations of Buddhist philosophy are excellent, his attempts to tie it back to synchronicity tend to be a bit problematic. The author gives a good explanation of the Doctrine of Emptiness (the doctrine that denies inherent existence or independent existence to all persons and things) and uses it to show support of synchronicity in Eastern thought through the belief that nothing is independent. Dr. Mansfield also gives an excellent overview of the Buddhist notion of samskara, the notion that everything we perceive is filtered by our mind state. This is another example of where the author differentiates himself from Jung, taking issue with Jung's dislike of meditation, his premise that the nature of mind is unknowable (in effect denying the existence of Buddhas), and that the entire notion of transcending the psyche is an archetypal theme and unattainable.

But it is here that the author leaves the Buddhist philosophical arena and

Book Reviews 493

ventures out on his own. The author asserts that because we can all agree on certain objective observations, the notion of a "World Soul," which transmits the world to us filtered by our perceptions must exist. He states that archetypes are in fact similar to an "unmeasured wave function" that provides a sort of psychic probability. But unfortunately, the author does not explore further how the existence of a World Soul can be reconciled with Buddhist thought (or synchronicity itself for that matter-the basis of synchronicity being that acausal events occur that guide the ego to its further individuation, an individuation whose existence is generally denied by Buddhist philosophy).

Now faced with two apparently conflicting paths to self-knowledge, how does the author suggest the reader proceed? It is on page 217 that the reader gets the full story:

Learning to concentrate the mind usually has a calming effect. However, there are inevitably periods when attempting to go deeper is like flushing skunks out of their dens.. . . My experience is that more meditation is not necessarily curative of the problems generated by meditation; however here [Jungian philosophy] can truly come to the rescue.

Perhaps this is a valid reason for a Buddhist, or anyone else for that matter, to further study synchronicity.

Craig Clayton Shaolin Gung Fu Institute

I? 0. Box 95745, Seattle, WA 981 45 craig.clayton @shaolin.com

Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 14, No. 3, p. 495,2000 0892-33 10/00 O 2000 Society for Scientific Exploration

SSE 20th Annual Meeting

Society for Scientific Exploration June 7-9,2001

La Jolla Radisson, La JollaISan Diego, California

Program Chair: Peter Sturrock

Program Invited Speakers TBA

Events June 7-9,2001

Scientific Meeting at the La Jolla Radisson Conference Center, across the road from the University of San Diego

Wednesday., June 6, 7:30p.m Welcome Reception, private party in the Outdoor Grove,

La Jolla Radisson

Friday, June 9, 2-6p.m. Field Trip, Private boat ride in San Diego Harbor

(including bus ride to and from San Diego)

Saturday, June 10,8p.m. Society Banquet, La Jolla Radisson

SSE has reserved rooms at the La Jolla Radisson at $11 9lnight until May 4. There is a free shuttle from the San Diego airport to the hotel, which runs hourly.

Society for Scientific Exploration

Officers Prof. Peter A. Sturrock, President Varian 302 Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-4060

Ms. Brenda Dunne Executive Vice President for Education C 13 1, School of Engineering &Applied Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-5263

Prof. Robert Jahn, Vice President D334, School of Engineering & Applied Science Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544-5263

Council

Dr. Marsha Adams 1100 Bear Gulch Rd. Woodside, CA 94062

Prof. Henry H. Bauer Chemistry, 234 Lane Hall VPI & su Blacksburg, VA 2406 1-0247

Dr. Stephan Baumann fMRI Project Director Psychology Software Tools, Inc. 2050 Ardmore Blvd. Pittsburgh, PA 15221

Prof. John Bockris Department of Chemistry Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843

Prof. L. W. Fredrick, Secretary Department of Astronomy P. 0 . Box 3818 University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903-08 18

Prof. Charles R. Tolbert, Treasurer Department of Astronomy P. 0 . Box 3818 University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903-08 18

Dr. Roger D. Nelson C 13 1, Engineering Quad. Princeton University Princeton. NJ 08544

Dr. Harold E. Puthoff Institute for Advanced Studies-Austin 4030 W. Braker Ln., Suite 300 Austin, TX 78759-5329

Dr. Beverly Rubik Institute for Frontier Science 6 1 14 LaSalle Avenue, #605 Oakland, CA 9461 1

Dr. Robert M. Wood 1727 Candlestick Ln. Newport Beach, CA 92660

Dr. John S. Derr Albq. Seismology Center Albuquerque, NM 87 1 15

journal of scientific exploration a i volume · journal of scientific exploration, vol. 14, no. 3,...

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