jostein dahl karlsen chair, working party for fossil fuels, wpff international energy agency energy...
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Jostein Dahl KarlsenChair, Working Party for Fossil Fuels, WPFF International Energy Agency
Energy Perspectives
Annual Petroleum Research School of Norway PhD Seminar24 November,
Norwegian Petroleum Museum, Stavanger
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Points
• Global Trends
• Regional Developments
• Oil and Gas & Technology
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Nord Amerika
S. & Sentr. Amerika
Asia
Midt Østen
Afrika
Europa og Eurasia
-1000 -500 0 500 1000
-295.4
75.8
-992.1
961.0
282.5
-43.5
-7.3
11.0
-121.3
123.0
84.1
-43.1
Gass Væske
Mill. tonn o.e
Liquids
Asia
South and Central America
North America
Oil and Gas a strategic commodity
Gas
Europe and Eurasia
Africa
Middle East
Net Regional Import and Export Capacities
Source: BP
Uncertainty of Opec capacityexpansion
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Importance of Non-OECD energy growth
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Modernization – basis for global energy growth in the long term
Energy consumption vs per capita income, by region
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Global Energy Developments1980 - 2035
Primary energy demand – a continued surge by all fuels
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Tracking clean energy progress
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Policy Scenarios match different energy futures
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99
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The world's remaining energy resources will not constrain the projected energy demand growth to 2035 & beyond, but large-scale of investment is required
Fossil energy resources by type
Total remaining recoverable resources
Proven reserves
Cumulative production to date
Coal Natural gas Oil
3 050 years
233 years178 years
142 years
61 years 54 years
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Gas to become first fuel- with role of LNG on the rise
Source: WEO 2014
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Long term gas supply cost curve
Volumes faced in through prices that reflects cost
Source: Resources to Reserves, Oil and Gas Technologies for the 21st Century, IEA 2013
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Unconventonional oil and gas - changes the energy landscape
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Economic implication of US unconventional revolution
Source: WEO 2014
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Cost of gas pipeline transport
Technology can reduce cost - market push is still essential
Source: Resources to Reserves, Oil and Gas Technologies of the 21st Century, IEA 2013
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Lock-in of fossil capacity, infrastructure and CO2 emissions
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CO2 emissions in ChinaOngoing/recent
capacity expansion in coal fired power in
China reresents +10 GT of CO2 emissions
locked- in
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Natural Gas is needed to combat global climate change
Europe:• CO2 emissions up!
Major step towards 2 DS realised if the current
investments in Chinese coal power replaced with gas
by 200 mill. tons CO2 in 2011
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IEA WPFF – China MOST collaboration
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China Natural GasConsumption vs Production
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Gas import mix - China
Recent Russianpipeline deal
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What’s in the store for future fuels?
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Technology Routes – China Gas
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Coal to Gas
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Global Gas Flows by
Inter-regional trade towards 2018
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Gas to Europe
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523 800km2
2 140 000 km2
Norwegian Continental Shelf - an important source of supply in the long term
Resources,NCS
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Political solution in theHigh North
Russia-Norway disputed zone : agreement after 40 years of negotiations
Sector line
Medianline
Settlementprinciple
Barents Sea
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Click icon to add pictureArctic E & P – a remote, but unique opportunity
1: Barents Sea2: Southern Kara Sea and West Siberia3: Northern Kara Sea4: Laptev Sea5: East Siberian Sea6: Chuchi Sea7: Alaska North Slope8: East Greenland
The worlds remainingpetroleum potential
N. AfrikaCaspian SeaMiddle East
Rest ofThe world
Arctic
8
3
2
1 4
5
67
Source: USGS
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The Barents Sea Scenario - Long term perspective
(Russia) Norway
Markets
Oil Gas
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Addressing techological challenges
Subsea production CompressionCourtesy of FMC Courtesy of Aker Solutions
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Upstream Oil
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Unconventional resources – a new regional energy future?
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Shale and tight oil wells in 2014
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Unconventional resources – what is in the store for productionGlobally?
Presented by Schlumberger at IEA Gas and Oil Technology InitiativeUnconventional Technology Forum, Colorado School of Mines, 29 October 2014
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Time to step up information
exchange?
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IEA Gas and Oil Technology Initiative
• Established in 2013 to provide information exchange on issues of strategic importance
• Global Initiative - interest from major regions; - North America/Americas, Europe, Asia/Asia Pacific
• International roll-out currently ongoing
Highlights: www.gotia.org
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Thank you for your attention