ClimategateClimategatewith focus on with focus on

Data IssuesData Issues

Hadley Center - Hadley Center - Climategate Ground Zero Climategate Ground Zero

because of Role with IPCC because of Role with IPCC

CRU Programmer Ian “Harry” CRU Programmer Ian “Harry” Harris LogHarris Log

“[The] hopeless state of their (CRU) data base. No uniform data integrity, it’s just a catalogue of issues that continues to grow as they’re found... There are hundreds if not thousands of pairs of dummy stations…and duplicates… Aarrggghhh! There truly is no end in sight. This whole project is SUCH A MESS. No wonder I needed therapy!!”

((http://www.di2.nu/foia/HARRY_READ_ME-0.html)

CRU BIO: Dendroclimatology, climate scenario development, data manipulation and visualisation, programming

Phil Jones Phil Jones The scientist at the center of the Climategate scandal at The scientist at the center of the Climategate scandal at

the CRU at East Anglia University in a candid the CRU at East Anglia University in a candid admission on BBC said that admission on BBC said that his surface temperature data are in such disarray his surface temperature data are in such disarray

they probably cannot be verified or replicated they probably cannot be verified or replicated there has been no statistically significant global there has been no statistically significant global

warming for the last 15 years and it has cooled warming for the last 15 years and it has cooled 0.12C/decade trend from 2002-20090.12C/decade trend from 2002-2009

and interestingly disavowed the "science-is-settled“ and interestingly disavowed the "science-is-settled“ sloganslogan

Barbara Boxer and Lisa Barbara Boxer and Lisa JacksonJackson

Both Boxer and Jackson after the emails Both Boxer and Jackson after the emails distanced the EPA from the IPCC report. distanced the EPA from the IPCC report.

Boxer said: Boxer said: “In my opening statement, I didn’t “In my opening statement, I didn’t quote one international scientist or IPCC quote one international scientist or IPCC report. … We are quoting the American report. … We are quoting the American scientific community here.”scientific community here.”

CRU vs NOAA, NASACRU vs NOAA, NASA In an email, CRU’s Director at the time Phil Jones In an email, CRU’s Director at the time Phil Jones

acknowledges that CRU mirrors the NOAA data.acknowledges that CRU mirrors the NOAA data. “ “Almost all the data we have in the Almost all the data we have in the CRUCRU archive is archive is

exactly the sameexactly the same as in the Global Historical as in the Global Historical Climatology Network Climatology Network (NOAA(NOAA GHCNGHCN) ) ““

And NASA uses NOAA data, as they note in their And NASA uses NOAA data, as they note in their documentation.documentation.

“ “The current analysis uses surface air temperatures The current analysis uses surface air temperatures measurements from …Global Historical Climatology measurements from …Global Historical Climatology Network (Network (NOAA NCDC GHCNNOAA NCDC GHCN), United States ), United States Historical Climatology Network (Historical Climatology Network (NOAA NCDC NOAA NCDC USHCN)USHCN) data….” data….”

Data CentersData Centers Three Global Surface Data CentersThree Global Surface Data Centers

Hadley Centre Climate Research Unit (CRU) in East Anglia Hadley Centre Climate Research Unit (CRU) in East Anglia UniversityUniversity

NOAA National Climate Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, NOAA National Climate Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, NCNC

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York CityYork City

Two satellite microwave sensing data centersTwo satellite microwave sensing data centers UAH MSU in Huntsville, ALUAH MSU in Huntsville, AL RSS (Remote Sensing Systems) in Santa Rosa, CA RSS (Remote Sensing Systems) in Santa Rosa, CA

Satellite and Station Data Satellite and Station Data DiscrepancyDiscrepancy

NOAA announced that for the globe June 2009 NOAA announced that for the globe June 2009 (for the globe) was the (for the globe) was the second warmest June in 130 years falling just short of 2005.

In sharp contrast to this NASA, The University In sharp contrast to this NASA, The University of Alabama Huntsville MSU satellite of Alabama Huntsville MSU satellite assessments had June as the assessments had June as the 15th coldest15th coldest and and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) 14th coldest14th coldest in in 31 years. 31 years.

Greenhouse Models predict Lower Trop warms more than land

Global Data Base IssuesGlobal Data Base Issues Station dropout (75% around 1990) Station dropout (75% around 1990) Missing data increased tenfold after 1990Missing data increased tenfold after 1990 Urban adjustment not used or totally inadequate even as world population Urban adjustment not used or totally inadequate even as world population

increased 1.5 to 6.7 billion since 1900increased 1.5 to 6.7 billion since 1900 Instruments with warm biases (HO-83) or not designed for climate trend Instruments with warm biases (HO-83) or not designed for climate trend

analysis (FAA ASOS +/- 0.9F)analysis (FAA ASOS +/- 0.9F) Siting for vast majority (90%) of sites do not meet government standards Siting for vast majority (90%) of sites do not meet government standards

resulting in significant warm biasesresulting in significant warm biases Major questions persist about how much and when to adjust ocean Major questions persist about how much and when to adjust ocean

temperatures for changing measurement techniques – opportunity for temperatures for changing measurement techniques – opportunity for mischiefmischief

Adjustments are then made to the data, very often leading to a warming Adjustments are then made to the data, very often leading to a warming trend that doesn’t exist in the raw datatrend that doesn’t exist in the raw data

Yet we pretend we can detect trends to a precision of a tenth of a degree

RussiaRussia Moscow’s Institute for Economic Analysis (IEA)

said that the Hadley Center had used data from only 25% of available stations leaving 40% of Russian territory uncovered

This created 0.64C greater warming than by using 100% of the raw data. Given that Russia represents 11.5% of global land, it significantly affects global temperatures

NOAA GHCN count dropped by over 50%

In Canada the number of In Canada the number of stations dropped from stations dropped from 600 to less than 50 (35 in 600 to less than 50 (35 in 2009). 2009).

The percentage of The percentage of stations in the lower stations in the lower elevations (below 300 elevations (below 300 feet) tripled, and those at feet) tripled, and those at higher elevations (above higher elevations (above 3000 feet) were reduced 3000 feet) were reduced in half. in half.

CanadaCanada

NOAA GHCN E.M. Smith

19751975

NOAA GHCN VJones

Eureka “GardenEureka “GardenSpot of the Arctic”Spot of the Arctic”

20092009

Number of Missing Number of Missing MonthsMonths

0

50

100

150

200

250

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Year

Num

ber o

f Mon

ths

with

Mis

sing

Dat

a

For the 110 Russian weather stations reporting weather data continuously from 1971 to 2001, the total number of missing monthly observations each year (McKitrick and Michaels)

NOAA GHCN VJones

Urban Heat Urban Heat IslandIsland Effect Effect

Brian Stone – GA Tech Brian Stone – GA Tech (2009)(2009)

““Across the U.S. as a whole, approximately 50 Across the U.S. as a whole, approximately 50 percent of the warming that has occurred since 1950 percent of the warming that has occurred since 1950 is due to land use changes (usually in the form of is due to land use changes (usually in the form of clearing forest for crops or cities) rather than to clearing forest for crops or cities) rather than to the emission of greenhouse gases”emission of greenhouse gases”

““Most large U.S. cities, including Atlanta, are Most large U.S. cities, including Atlanta, are warming at more than twice the rate of the planet as a warming at more than twice the rate of the planet as a whole – a rate that is mostly attributable to land use whole – a rate that is mostly attributable to land use change."change."

NASA’s Dr Edward Long NASA’s Dr Edward Long (2010) Study(2010) Study

SPPI

1930s

-0.35C

Inconvenient Inconvenient factfact

“The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934.” James Hansen 1999

USHCN v1 had a UHI adjustment (Karl 1988)

‘‘Pal’ Review Used to Pal’ Review Used to Discount UHIDiscount UHI

UHI removed from US data in 2007.UHI removed from US data in 2007. No urbanization adjustment is made for either NOAA or CRU’s No urbanization adjustment is made for either NOAA or CRU’s

global dataglobal data based on flawed papers by Wang (1990), Jones based on flawed papers by Wang (1990), Jones (1990) and NOAA’s Peterson (2003) and CRU’s Parker (2006). (1990) and NOAA’s Peterson (2003) and CRU’s Parker (2006).

The Jones and Wang papers in 1990 were shownThe Jones and Wang papers in 1990 were shown by Keenan to by Keenan to be based on fabricated China data. Wigley email agreed be based on fabricated China data. Wigley email agreed Keenan's fraud accusation against Wang was correct (Keenan's fraud accusation against Wang was correct (1188557698) )

In 2008, Jones found that contamination by urbanization in In 2008, Jones found that contamination by urbanization in China was a very non-trivial 1C per century… but that did not China was a very non-trivial 1C per century… but that did not cause the data centers to begin adjusting as that would have cause the data centers to begin adjusting as that would have eliminated much of the global warming. eliminated much of the global warming.

NOAA removed urban adjustment to US data in 2007 resulting now ina warming!

(removing urban adjustment)

Change after removal ofUHI adjustment

Steve McIntyre and UHISteve McIntyre and UHI Steve McIntyre challenged NOAA’s Peterson Steve McIntyre challenged NOAA’s Peterson

2003 statement, 2003 statement, “Contrary to generally “Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures”annual temperatures”

He showed the difference between urban and He showed the difference between urban and rural temperatures for Peterson’s station set rural temperatures for Peterson’s station set was 0.7ºC and between temperatures in large was 0.7ºC and between temperatures in large cities and rural areas 2ºC. cities and rural areas 2ºC. http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/04/1859/

McIntyre from data fromNCDC Peterson 2003

MajorMajorStation SitingStation Siting

IssuesIssues90% of 1067 (of the 1221 US 90% of 1067 (of the 1221 US climate stations) surveyed as climate stations) surveyed as

of 10/25/09of 10/25/09 do not meet do not meet government standardsgovernment standards

Anthony Watts surfacestations.org project

USHCN Station Hopkinsville, KY (Pielke et al 2006)

Max/Min sensor near John Martin Reservoir, CO (Davey 2005)

Ontario, OR

Waste Treatment PlantsWaste Treatment Plants

Rome’s Ciampino AirportRome’s Ciampino Airport

Watts

Contamination of the Contamination of the Data BasesData Bases

Numerous peer-reviewed papers ignored Numerous peer-reviewed papers ignored by the IPCC and the data centers have by the IPCC and the data centers have estimated that these local issues with the estimated that these local issues with the observing networks may account for observing networks may account for 30%, 50% or more30%, 50% or more of the warming of the warming shown since 1880 shown since 1880 (Kalney and Cai, de laat and (Kalney and Cai, de laat and Maurellis, Pielke and Davey, Pielke et al (numerous), Maurellis, Pielke and Davey, Pielke et al (numerous), Lin and Pielke, Michaels and Balling, Michaels and Lin and Pielke, Michaels and Balling, Michaels and McKitrick, Michaels and McKitrick, Runnals and McKitrick, Michaels and McKitrick, Runnals and Oke, Stone)Oke, Stone)

‘‘Homogenization’ Homogenization’ and other and other

AdjustmentsAdjustments

Davis, CA, Closest Rural Site to SFO

Davis, CA unadjusted data

GHCN adjusted data

Auckland, New Zealand

Auckland, NZ unadjusted data

GHCN adjusted data

Essenbach WUWT

NASA Any Better?NASA Any Better? E-mail messages obtained by CEI in a E-mail messages obtained by CEI in a

Freedom of Information Act request reveal Freedom of Information Act request reveal that that NASA concluded that its own climate data NASA concluded that its own climate data was inferior to those of the CRU and NOAAwas inferior to those of the CRU and NOAA

In 2007, a In 2007, a USA TodayUSA Today reporter asked if reporter asked if NASA's data "was more accurate" than other NASA's data "was more accurate" than other climate-change data sets, climate-change data sets, NASA's Dr. Reto A. NASA's Dr. Reto A. RuedyRuedy replied with an unequivocal NO! replied with an unequivocal NO! ""My recommendation to you is to continue using My recommendation to you is to continue using

NCDC's data for the U.S… and [East Anglia] data NCDC's data for the U.S… and [East Anglia] data for the global… "for the global… "

GISS Temperatures Change GISS Temperatures Change RegularlyRegularly

20% data changed 16 times in 2 ½ years ending 2007 - Goetz CA

NASA GISS Builds Hockey Stick

Hansen and GISS have changed their global air temperature climatology over time to minimize the impact of the global cooling of the 1960s and 1970s and increase the correlation between air

temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations.

http://wallstreetpit.com/20710-climategate-goes-back-to-1980

-0.3C colder -0.05C colder +0.05C warmer

Ocean TemperaturesOcean Temperatures Surface layer buckets transitioned to deeper ship Surface layer buckets transitioned to deeper ship

intake over many decades intake over many decades Later moored and drifting buoysLater moored and drifting buoys Satellite IR ‘skin temperatures’ used until July 2009 Satellite IR ‘skin temperatures’ used until July 2009

when dropped because of a ‘cold bias’ (NOAA when dropped because of a ‘cold bias’ (NOAA global ocean anomalies are 0.24 warmer than the are 0.24 warmer than the NASA analysis)NASA analysis)

ARGO diving buoys deployed in 2003 – worldwide ARGO diving buoys deployed in 2003 – worldwide coverage but coverage but NOTNOT used operationally used operationally

Removing the 1940 Removing the 1940 Warm BlipWarm Blip

A Tom Wigley A Tom Wigley [1][1] email suggested that sea surface email suggested that sea surface temperatures for the ‘warm blip’ period should be arbitrarily temperatures for the ‘warm blip’ period should be arbitrarily “corrected” downward by 0.15C “corrected” downward by 0.15C “…this would be significant for the global mean” (since the oceans cover 71% of the surface) but still plausible

In the Climategate emails, Wigley also warned In the Climategate emails, Wigley also warned [2][2]: “: “Land Land warming since 1980 has been twice the ocean warming and warming since 1980 has been twice the ocean warming and skeptics might claim that this proves that urban warming is skeptics might claim that this proves that urban warming is real and important.”real and important.”

[1][1]http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1016&filename=1254108338.txt.http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1016&filename=1254108338.txt.[2][2]http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1067&filename=1257546975.txt.http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1067&filename=1257546975.txt.

NOAA keeps“finding” more warmth in their ocean

data set than NASA (Tisdale 2009)

NOAA ARGO BUOYS

ARGO Ocean Heat ARGO Ocean Heat ContentContent

Loehle (2009)

What are the Chances? 75% of the stations disappear, many from colder higher latitudes and

elevations and in stable areas of lower latitudes Missing months increase tenfold, most rural and in winter Urban adjustment removed or non-existent even as population grows 1.5 to

6.7B and most peer review finds significant contamination ‘Modernization’ instruments had warm bias or increased uncertainty ‘Modernization’ led to putting 90% stations in inappropriate locations where

they have a distinct warm bias Homogenization and other adjustments blend the good with the bad usually

cooling off early warm periods, producing a warming where none existed Each ocean estimate (changing inputs, Wigley’s cooling ‘1940s warm blip’,

and removing cool satellite data) enhance ocean warming Each version of the NOAA/NASA data sets warmer than the prior

Man-made warming is real!

But the men are in East Anglia, Asheville and New

York City

““If we torture the If we torture the data long data long

enough, it will enough, it will confess” confess”

Ronald Coase, Nobel Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, Economic Sciences,

19911991

Bottom LineBottom Line These factors all lead to significant These factors all lead to significant

uncertainty and a tendency for overestimation uncertainty and a tendency for overestimation of century-scale temperature trends. of century-scale temperature trends.

An obvious conclusion from all findings in our An obvious conclusion from all findings in our updated SPPI paper updated SPPI paper “Surface Temperature “Surface Temperature records: Policy Driven Deception?”records: Policy Driven Deception?” is that is that the global data bases are seriously flawed and the global data bases are seriously flawed and can no longer be trusted to assess climate can no longer be trusted to assess climate trends and initialize, calibrate or validate trends and initialize, calibrate or validate climate models. climate models.

And, consequently, the surface data and models should not have been used for decision making by the EPA or the congress.  

Independent Data Independent Data AssessmentAssessment

Georgia Tech’s Dr. Judith Curry’s suggestion on Roger Pielke Jr.’s blog that:

“In my opinion, there needs to be a new independent effort to produce a global historical surface temperature dataset that is transparent and that includes expertise in statistics and computational science….The public has lost confidence in the data sets …Some efforts are underway in the blogosphere to examine the historical land surface data (e.g. such as GHCN), but even the GHCN data base has numerous inadequacies.”

Note: replication is required by DQA according to OMB

How Did We Get Here?How Did We Get Here? It certainly didn’t start with her, but NOAA’s Dr.

Jane Lubchenko when she was president of AAAS in 1999 said:

“Urgent and unprecedented environmental and social changes challenge scientists to define a new social contract…a commitment on the part of all scientists to devote their energies and talents to the most pressing problems of the day, in proportion to their importance, in exchange for public funding.”

Eisenhower 1961 Eisenhower 1961 ProphecyProphecy

• Dwight Eisenhower in his 1961 Farewell Address to the Nation remembered most for military industrial complex comments also warned:• “that public policy could itself become the captive of a

scientific-technological elite.” • Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government

contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity”

• “The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present - and is gravely to be regarded.”