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“WE ARE WHERE WE ARE….”STATISTICAL SNAPSHOT OF WEST CORK 2011

Declan Jordan and Justin DoranDepartment of EconomicsUniversity College Cork

Future West Cork WeekOctober 2011

2

Structure• Population and Migration• Housing• Employment and Income• Regional Resilience• Where to next for regional policy?

3

Total (persons)

% Change Total

Males (persons)

% Change Males

Females (Persons)

% Change Females

County Cork 37,339 11% 15,952 9% 21,387 12%

Cork 36,833 8% 16,156 7% 20,677 9%

South-West 42,046 7% 17,871 6% 24,175 8%

South and East 234,399 8% 100,182 6% 134,217 9%

BMW 107,022 10% 47,345 8% 59,677 11%

State 341,421 9% 147,527 7% 193,894 9%

Change in Population 2006-2011 by Spatial Level

4

062

Cou

rtmac

sher

ry

044

See

fin

024

Kilb

roga

n

187

Kilm

onog

e

189

Kins

ale R

ural

100

Ove

ns

182

Ball

ymar

tle

191

Lah

erne

067

Kilm

oyler

ane

309

Ball

yban

e

313

Dun

beac

on

004

Kins

ale U

rban

312

Cro

okha

ven

318

Sku

ll

288

Bre

dagh

303

Kno

cksk

agh

038

Glan

lough

287

Agh

adow

n Sou

th

035

Dou

ce

319

Too

rmor

e -20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Population Growth Rate 2006-2011 in Ten Highest and Ten Lowest Growing DEDs in WCL Area

5

Growth in Population in Ten Most and Least Populated DEDs

6

Change in Population by DED 2006 - 2011

7

Change in Population by DED 1996 - 2011

8

1951

- 1

956

1956

- 1

961

1961

- 1

966

1966

- 1

971

1971

- 1

979

1979

- 1

981

1981

- 1

986

1986

- 1

991

1991

- 1

996

1996

- 2

002

2002

- 2

006

2006

- 2

011

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Cork

Munster

State

Annual Estimated Net Migration 1951 to 2011 per 1,000 of average population

9

1996 - 2002 2002 - 2006 2006 - 20110

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Cork

Munster

State

Annual Estimated Net Migration 1996 to 2011 per 1,000 of average population

10

Structure• Population and Migration• Housing• Employment and Income• Regional Resilience• Where to next for regional policy?

11

2006 2011 Change

Housing stock (Number) 150,659 172,858 22,199

Vacant dwellings (Number) 24,794 27,410 2,616

(+10.6%)

Vacancy rate (%) 16.5 15.9 -0.6%

Housing Stock and Vacancy Rates in County Cork

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Dwelling Vacancy Rates by County 2006 and 2011 (% of housing stock)

2006 2011Leitrim 29.3 30.4Donegal 27 28.5Kerry 24.8 26.5Mayo 24.4 24.8Roscommon 21.8 23Sligo 23.1 22.2Cavan 21.2 22.1Longford 22.2 21.8Clare 20.1 21.3Wexford 21.5 20.9Galway 17.9 16.9Waterford 16.8 16.6Cork 15.3 14.8North Tipperary 13.4 14.8Carlow 12.3 14Westmeath 15.3 13.5Monaghan 12.8 13.5South Tipperary 12.7 12.7Laois 15.7 12.6Limerick 12.6 12.5Louth 13.4 12.4Kilkenny 12 12Offaly 12.9 11.8Wicklow 11.4 9.9Meath 10.6 9.1Dublin 9.7 8.6Kildare 9.9 8.1

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Housing Vacancy by Electoral District 2011

Source: CSO, 2011

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Structure• Population and Migration• Housing• Employment and Income• Regional Resilience• Where to next for regional policy?

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Persons on the Live Register in County Cork 2002 - 2011

2002M032002M112003M072004M032004M112005M072006M032006M112007M072008M032008M112009M072010M032010M112011M070

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

16

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Income per Person for County Cork(State = 100)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200894.5

95

95.5

96

96.5

97

97.5

98

98.5

99

Inco

me

(Sta

te =

100

)

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Structure• Population and Migration• Housing• Employment and Income• Regional Resilience• Where to next for regional policy?

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Four Elements of Regional Resilience

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Resilience to 2007 Recession:Irish Regions

Border Midland West Dublin Mid-East Mid-West South-East South-West-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

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Resilience to 2007 Recession:Cork Social Welfare Office Areas

Cork

Count

y

Bando

n

Bantry

Bantry

(SW

LO)

Carrig

aline

Clonak

iltyCob

h

Cork

City

Ferm

oy

Kinsale

Mac

room

Mall

ow

Midl

eton

Newm

arke

t

Skibbe

reen

Yough

al-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

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South-West Regional Resilience by Sector

Agricu

lture

, for

estry

and

fish

ing (A

)

Const

ruct

ion (F

)

Who

lesale

and

reta

il tra

de; r

epair

of m

otor

veh

icles

and

mot

orcy

cles

(G)

Trans

porta

tion

and

stor

age

(H)

Accom

mod

ation

and

food

ser

vice

activ

ities

(I)

Info

rmat

ion a

nd c

omm

unica

tion

(J)

Profe

ssion

al, s

cient

ific a

nd te

chnic

al ac

tivitie

s (M

)

Admini

stra

tive

and

supp

ort s

ervic

e ac

tivitie

s (N

)

Public

adm

inist

ratio

n an

d de

fenc

e; c

ompu

lsory

soc

ial s

ecur

ity (O

)

Educa

tion

(P)

Human

hea

lth a

nd s

ocial

wor

k ac

tivitie

s (Q

)

Indu

stry

(B to

E)

Financ

ial, i

nsur

ance

and

real

esta

te a

ctivi

ties

(K, L

)

Other

NACE a

ctivi

ties

(R to

U)

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

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Structure• Population and Migration• Housing• Employment and Income• Regional Resilience• Where to next for regional policy?

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Irish Regional Dispersion: 8 Planning Regions 2000-2008 (%)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Disposable Income per capita

Gross Value Added per capita

Source: Doran, Jordan and O’Leary (2011)

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And regional policy now?• A well-rounded strategy for economic recovery cannot ignore the spatial structure of

the economy. • The optimal performance of the country as a whole will be secured when the differing

roles of every place in Ireland, regardless of size or location, are organised and co-ordinated in a manner that enables them to maximise their potential.

• All regions of the country have a role to play in our national economic recovery. • Accordingly, prioritised and strategic investments to realise the potential of the

regions, which contribute to the core strengths of Ireland’s economy in service and knowledge-based industries, information technology and manufacturing together with the sustainable use of natural resources in the agriculture, fisheries, tourism and energy sectors, are vital in positioning the regions as key contributors to Ireland’s national recovery.

Source: National Reform Programme for Ireland under the Europe 2020 Strategy (2011:29)

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There’s always a but….The National Spatial Strategy (NSS), together with the

strategically focused regional planning guidelines which were updated in 2010 for all NUTS III regions, provides a rational and evidence-based framework to inform the co-

ordination of infrastructural and services investment and to harness regional and overall national competitive

advantages and thus support sustainable economic recovery.

Source: National Reform Programme for Ireland under the Europe 2020 Strategy (2011:29)

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

d.jordan@ucc.ie justin.doran@ucc.ie

www.declanjordan.net www.justindoran.ie

@decjordan @doran_justin