John M. Volkman June 13, 2003

Either/Or? Is it Hydropower or Salmon in the Northwest?

I. Background

• A deep-seated conflict:– Salmon: cultural icon, mainstay of a fishing

economy, central focus of treaties, ESA and Clean Water Act

– Hydropower: half the region’s energy; vital to NW economy; tied to Canada, California and Southwest energy systems

– Flood control, navigation, irrigation and recreation

• Lower Snake River draw-down

Natural River Channel Reservoir Pool

•Small X-sec area•High flow velocity•Short travel time•Cold temperature

•Large X-sec area•Low flow velocity•Long travel time•Warmer temperature

Effects of Channel Development on Streamflow

• Litigation and its aftermath: – 1994 court rulings concluded that federal

recovery efforts were flawed– 1994-99 interim opinion hinted at major

changes at dams in 1999– Dam-breaching looks cheaper, easier, more

effective than draw-down– The dilemma in 1998:

• no authority for breaching

• breaching would help only Snake River fish

• The 2000 biological opinion:

– Avoid jeopardy with federal and non-federal habitat restoration (long-term); tributary water solutions (short-term)

– Still hinting at major changes 5-10 years out based on monitoring and evaluation

• National Wildlife Federation v. National Marine Fisheries Service:

2000 biological opinion is arbitrary and capricious because it improperly relied on federal habitat programs that weren’t cleared through ESA and non-federal programs not “reasonably certain to occur.”

II. Effects of climate change

• “Facts:”• 3 degrees F higher average temperatures• More rain, less snow• Higher winter streamflows, lower

summer streamflows• Spring runoff peaks about 2 weeks earlier• About the same annual runoff

(Preliminary Results, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group)

Historic vs. projected streamflows

Source: A. F. Hamlet, Seeds of Crisis, Water Resources Policy and Development in the Columbia River Basin (University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, February 2002)

Historic Global Warming

Cold Hot

Dry

Wet

Cold Hot

Historic vs. projected climate

• What might it be like?

• For the mainstem, consider 2001: – hot, dry weather– chaotic energy markets– hydro operations for salmon abandoned– upturn in the ocean – record salmon returns

III. What’s Next?

• Near term: NWF v. NMFS remand:• Is the 2000 opinion void?

• Shore up habitat programs (with a dash of hatchery supplementation?

• Flood control bottleneck

• Renegotiate Columbia River Treaty?

• Breach dams (which ones)?

• Jeopardy opinion, followed by exemption process?

• Longer term: – Multiple crises overlap with little predictability,

sharper conflicts and narrower choices – Greenhouse concerns favor hydropower, given

current technologies and economics– Confusing signals from ecosystems