Saaremaa majandus 20 aasta pärast

Mõned isiklikud mõtted ja tähelepanekud

September 2011

World

2

Estonia

Saaremaa

How can Saaremaa entrepreneurs position themselves for the future?

World trends - Population

3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

World Population, billions

Emerging countries

Developed countries

F O R E C A S T

Source: United Nations

World trends – Economic activity

4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

% o

f th

e to

tal

Economies' share of world GDP

Emerging countries

Developing countries

F O R E C A S T

Source: IMF, Trigon

Potential Impact of Climate Change by 2050

5 Source: United Nations Environmental Programme - The Environmental Food Crisis, 2009.

World trends - Environmental change

• Min -14%

• Mid -30%

• Max -46%

Food supply challenge

Fresh water supply challenge

World trends – Conclusions

Where does Estonia fit in on the global scale?

6

Estonia trends - Population

Share of children by local government units, 1.01.2000

7 Source: Statistics Estonia

Estonia trends - Population

Share of children by local government units, 1.01.2011

8 Source: Statistics Estonia

Estonia trends – Population

9 Source: Statistics Estonia

Population density

Estonia trends – Economic activity

Share of national GDP, %

From 1996 to 2008

10 Source: Statistics Estonia

53.1 59.6%

8.7 10.4%

10.6 8.1%

1.9 1.8%

Estonia trends – Conclusions

Where does Saaremaa fit in given Estonia’s positioning on the global scale and its local (dis)advantages?

11

Saaremaa – Competitive analysis

12

Advantages:

The sunniest part of Estonia

The lowest rainfall

Low air pollution

Cultural heritage

Island brand

Disadvantages:

Logistics

Labour

Source: Statistics Estonia

Tourism

Avoid mass

Niche / exclusive

Agribusiness

Organic agriculture

Related processing

Brand - Saaremaa

Other niche

E.g. Saare Paat

13 Source: Statistics Estonia

Saaremaa – Business opportunities

Saaremaa after 20 years: My forecast

14

Services

63%

Industry

32%

Agriculture

5%

Saaremaa GDP breakdown, 2008 Saaremaa GDP breakdown, 2030

More services

Less industry / More of the industry will be food processing related

More specialized agriculture (esp. organic)

Source: Statistics Estonia

Saaremaa: My recommendations

15

Support niche high-value tourism opportunities

Support niche high-value agriculture / food processing opportunities

Be open to local /outside entrepreneurs with interesting new ideas