EVALUATION OF THE BERKELEY “SODA TAX”Jennifer Falbe, ScD, MPH

Kristine Madsen, MD, MPH

UC Berkeley School of Public Health

MEASURE D

Excise tax on SSB Distributors

MEASURE D

$0.01 /oz ≥2 cals/oz

Excise tax on SSB Distributors

MEASURE D

$0.01 /oz ≥2 cals/oz

• Regular soda• Sweetened

tea & coffee• “Fruit” drinks• Sports drinks• Energy drinks• Powdered,

syrup or frozen

Excise tax on SSB Distributors

MEASURE D

$0.01 /oz ≥2 cals/oz

• Regular soda• Sweetened

tea & coffee• “Fruit” drinks• Sports drinks• Energy drinks• Powdered,

syrup or frozen

• Milks• 100% juice• Medical

beverages• Alcoholic

drinksExcise tax on SSB

Distributors

MEASURE DGeneral tax simple majority

MEASURE DGeneral tax simple majority 76% voted yes

MEASURE DGeneral tax simple majority 76% voted yesPanel of experts: to advise on allocating revenues to “reduce the

consumption of [SSBs]…”

https://www.cityofberkeley.info/uploadedFiles/Clerk/Elections/Sugar%20Sweeetened%20Beverage%20Tax%20%20-%20Full%20Text.pdf

MEASURE DGeneral tax simple majority 76% voted yesPanel of experts: to advise on allocating revenues to “reduce the

consumption of [SSBs]…” Must have experience in community or school-based food and nutrition

programs, early childhood nutrition education, or researching/evaluating relevant public health issues/programs; or

Be a licensed medical practitioner

https://www.cityofberkeley.info/uploadedFiles/Clerk/Elections/Sugar%20Sweeetened%20Beverage%20Tax%20%20-%20Full%20Text.pdf

MEASURE DBerkeley Healthy Child Coalition

MEASURE DBerkeley Healthy Child Coalition Cuts to Berkeley’s school

garden/cooking program & Farm Fresh Choice

MEASURE DBerkeley Healthy Child Coalition Cuts to Berkeley’s school

garden/cooking program & Farm Fresh Choice

Support from school board & city council (unanimous), Berkeley NAACP, Latinos Unidos de Berkeley, AHA, etc.

MEASURE DMost expensive campaign in

Berkeley history (>$2 million by opposition)

http://www.berkeleyside.com/2015/02/05/around-3-4m-spent-on-berkeley-soda-tax-campaign/Image: http://storyofstuff.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Berkeley-vs-Big-Soda-300x300.png

MEASURE DMost expensive campaign in

Berkeley history (>$2 million by opposition)

American Beverage Association

http://www.berkeleyside.com/2015/02/05/around-3-4m-spent-on-berkeley-soda-tax-campaign/Image: http://storyofstuff.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Berkeley-vs-Big-Soda-300x300.png

YES ON D (BERKELEY VS. BIG SODA)

YES ON D (BERKELEY VS. BIG SODA)

NO ON D (AMERICAN BEVERAGE ASSOC)

NO ON D (AMERICAN BEVERAGE ASSOC)

MEASURE E (SAN FRANCISCO)$0.02/oz excise taxEarmarked for nutrition,

physical activity, and health programs in public schools, parks, and elsewhere 2/3rd majority

MEASURE E (SAN FRANCISCO)$0.02/oz excise taxEarmarked for nutrition,

physical activity, and health programs in public schools, parks, and elsewhere 2/3rd majority

>$9 million spent by opposition

55.6% voted yes Failed

MEASURE E (SAN FRANCISCO)

BERKELEY D: IMPLEMENTATION Implementation date: January 1, 2015Actual: March, 2015 $116,000 collected in April Projected: $1.2 million in 1st year

EVALUATIONCITIES: Berkeley (intervention), SF, & Oakland (comparison)1. PRICES: Examine extent to which tax is passed-through to retail

prices.

EVALUATIONCITIES: Berkeley (intervention), SF, & Oakland (comparison)1. PRICES: Examine extent to which tax is passed-through to retail

prices.

Distributors

Retailers

EVALUATIONCITIES: Berkeley (intervention), SF, & Oakland (comparison)1. PRICES: Examine extent to which tax is passed-through to retail

prices.2. CONSUMPTION: Changes in consumption of SSBs3. Media analysis of news coverage (Berkeley Media Studies Group)

Distributors

Retailers

DESIGNNatural experiment

Prices: Longitudinal Consumption: Repeated cross-sections

DESIGNNatural experiment

Prices: Longitudinal Consumption: Repeated cross-sections

3 cities: San Francisco, Berkeley, & Oakland 2 lower-income neighborhoods per city Matched (to extent possible) on foot traffic and census tract race & income

variables

PRICE ASSESSMENT

Top selling SSBs (soda, tea, coffee, sports, energy, “fruit”), diet counterparts, water, 100% OJ, and milk

PRICE ASSESSMENT

Top selling SSBs (soda, tea, coffee, sports, energy, “fruit”), diet counterparts, water, 100% OJ, and milk

Chain grocery, small grocery, drugstores, convenience stores, liquor stores, and fast food restaurants in each neighborhood (or the closest)

PRICE ASSESSMENT

Top selling SSBs (soda, tea, coffee, sports, energy, “fruit”), diet counterparts, water, 100% OJ, and milk

Chain grocery, small grocery, drugstores, convenience stores, liquor stores, and fast food restaurants in each neighborhood (or the closest)

Most common single serving size (e.g., 20 oz bottle) in all stores and common larger sizes (e.g., 2 liters, 12 packs) in a subsample of stores

BASELINE PRICESBerkeley (n=24)

SF & Oakland (n=50)

Mean soda (20 oz) $1.74 $1.74

Mean diet soda (20 oz)

$1.72 $1.76

Mean water (20 oz) $1.45 $1.58

Arizona tea (23 oz) $0.97 $1.00

Gatorade (20 oz) $1.61 $1.57

Sample of beverages

PASS-THROUGH: EXAMPLEExample of complete pass-through12 *12 ounces *$0.01= $1.44$7.43-$5.99=$1.44

CHANGE IN INVENTORY

CONSUMPTION Intercept surveys

Beverage frequency questionnaire

CONSUMPTION Intercept surveys

Beverage frequency questionnaire Knowledge & attitudes about SSBs and the tax Demographics

CONSUMPTION Intercept surveys

Beverage frequency questionnaire Knowledge & attitudes about SSBs and the tax Demographics Post-survey: perceived changes in purchasing habits

(e.g., changing stores or cities from which they buy beverages, stocking up)

BASELINE SURVEYS

Berkeley

SF Oakland

SSBs 1.2 (2.2) 1.1 (1.7) 1.4 (1.7)

Soda 0.5 (1.4) 0.4 (0.7) 0.5 (0.8)

Water 3.5 (3.2) 4.4 (3.6) 3.6 (3.0)

Consumption: mean (SD) frequency per dayHow often do you drink regular soda...

BASELINE SURVEYS

Berkeley SF Oakland0

102030405060708090

100

Drinking soda & other sugary drinks…can increase your risk for cavities, obesity, and diabetes (% strongly agree or agree)

Strongly agree Agree

BASELINE SURVEYS

020406080

100

How likely are you to support…(% responding likely or very likely)

Berkeley SF Oakland

DISCUSSIONLay press (e.g., on Pass-through and

Distributor complaints

DISCUSSIONLay press (e.g., on Pass-through and

Distributor complaints

“Two receipts, left, from…Berkeley, and right, from …Clayton, show no soft drink tax was charged on a 1.5 liter Pepsi in both cities.” (Dan Rosenstrauch/Bay Area News Group)

http://www.contracostatimes.com/barnidge/ci_28170150/barnidge-if-berkeley-shoppers-dont-have-pay-soda

DISCUSSIONContinuing Evaluation: How revenues are used

DISCUSSIONContinuing Evaluation: How revenues are usedRoad map for scaling/possible lessons (to be) learned

Grass roots Coalition before launching Anticipating reaction of industry Branded as Berkeley (us) vs. Big Soda Strategy: Earmarking vs. general tax + panel of experts Simplifying impact on business owners

Contact: Jen Falbe, ScD, MPH | jfalbe@berkeley.edu