jeff friedberg friedberg investment management investing by instinctinvesting by instinct

62
Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by Instinct

Upload: maryam-beam

Post on 01-Apr-2015

234 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Jeff FriedbergFriedberg Investment Management

Investing by Instinct

Page 2: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

• 1964 Jeff buys first stock. 20 shares of Varian Associates.

• 1965 Jeff often stops by Merrill Lynch office before attending graduate school classes.

• 1968 Jeff is first employed as a geophysicist and manages his own portfolio.

• 1975 Brokerage industry is deregulated. Fixed commissions disappear. Discount brokers arise.

The Evolution of FIM

Page 3: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

• 1978 Jeff meets with the SEC.• 1979 Jeff gets registered and licensed. First client

gives Jeff $7,431.50 to manage• 1990 Jeff moves from home office to regular office• 2014 FIM now consists of a team of 9 persons

managing nearly $300 million for more than 350 individuals or families.

Page 4: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

• FIM is an independent, fee based, money management firm.

• We manage customized investment portfolios to meet each client’s objective in a continually changing economic environment.

• We do this by investing exclusively in publicly traded securities.

• We believe the key to successful investing is to make long term investments in successful companies.

Who We Are

Page 5: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Today’s Blue Chips are good companies

…but tomorrow’s Blue Chips are today’s best investments.

Page 6: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct
Page 7: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Bloomberg

Page 8: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

FIM Performance History (Growth)

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000 Change in Value of $10,000 Investment

FIM Growth Composite

S&P 500

Russell 2000

Page 9: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Finding Companies for Investment

Page 10: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

• Are managed by people• Have personalities• Reflect the DNA of their managers• Evolve and adapt• Can be complacent, reactive, proactive,

aggressive

We View Companies as organisms which….

Page 11: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Institutional Analysts FIM

Data Input Keyboard Eyes and Ears

Analysis Digital Conceptual

Data Output Earnings Model Company DNA

Time Frame Next Quarter 2-5 Years

Approach to Investment Analysis

Page 12: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

• Large companies are usually fairly priced.• Silicon Valley companies are typically overpriced.• New York companies are well known on Wall Street.• Companies with little debt don’t go bankrupt.• The closer a stock is to zero, the more likely it is to

get there.• There is greater risk in international stocks than

domestic ones.

Observations Over 33 Years of Investing

Page 13: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

• Above-average growth is achievable.• Competitive advantages are sustainable.• Smaller companies can be successful.• Examples include Energy, Industrials,

Aerospace, Technology (non-semiconductor), and Healthcare.

Over the years, FIM has chosen to focus on a handful of specific sectors where:

Page 14: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

• Banks & Brokers• Insurance Companies• National Retailers• Semiconductors• Commodity-Oriented or Cyclical Companies• Large Companies• International Companies

FIM generally avoids investing in areas where institutional investors are strong:

Page 15: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

• Investment Conferences

• Road Shows

• Companies visit our office

• Interaction with other investors

Finding Companies for Investment

Page 16: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

• Reading company press releases• Watching archived presentations from investment

conferences (200+/yr)• Listening to company earnings conference calls

(600+/yr)• Calling company executives or visiting them (100+/yr)• Reading investment analyst reports

Getting Acquainted with Companies

Page 17: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

• Clarity• Teamwork• Longevity• Newness• Treating employees as assets, not expenses.• “Jack of all Trades”• Responsiveness to questions

Assessing CEOs and Managements

Page 18: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

We don’t think so

Is Stock-Picking Dead?

Page 19: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Schlumberger -- SLB

Page 20: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Core Labs (CLB) vs. SLB

Page 21: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Apache -- APA

Page 22: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

EOG vs. APA

Page 23: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Kinder Morgan LP (KMP)

Page 24: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Plains (PAA) vs. KMP

Page 25: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Magellan (MMP) vs. KMP

Page 26: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Allergan -- AGN

Page 27: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Valeant (VRX) vs. AGN

Page 28: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Illinois Tool Works -- ITW

Page 29: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Middleby (MIDD) vs. ITW

Page 30: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Database company – 1980’sZapata – 1981Compaq – 1986McDermott – 2004Sprint -- 2007SXCI (CTRX) -- 2008Digital River -- 2011

Instinctive Decision Examples

Page 31: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Bought in 1985 at $43Bought more in 1986 at $72Sold in April, 1987, at $127

Compaq

Page 32: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

McDermott International Inc. (MDR)

Page 33: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

McDermott International Inc. (MDR)

Page 34: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

McDermott

Page 35: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

SXC Health Solutions, Corp. (SXCI)

PartialSale

Page 36: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

SXC Health Solutions, Corp. (SXCI)

PartialSale

Page 37: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Catamaran

Page 38: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Digital River Inc. (DRIV)

Page 39: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Digital River earnings revenue

Page 40: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

In 2011, we intend to capitalize on this market momentumwhile continuing to grow our enterprise commerce business insoftware, consumer electronics and games, and expand intothe education and payments markets. The common denominatorthat continues to successfully drive these growth strategies is ourvalue proposition – delivering the online expertise, technologiesand revenue strategies companies need to succeed in today’sonline marketplace.

At the heart of Digital River is the drive to succeed – nowherewas this more evident than in 2010, when we delivered on ouraggressive commitment to accelerate our revenue and convertour pipeline of prospects into signed clients. Our ability toexecute against this plan was backed by the people at DigitalRiver – a team of e-commerce experts unparalleled in the industry.

Annual Report Excerpt

Page 41: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Digital River Inc. (DRIV)

Page 42: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Digital River

Page 43: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Some Energy Companies with Excellent Management

Page 44: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Plains All American – PAA/PAGP

Page 45: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Magellan Midstream LP -- MMP

Page 46: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

EOG Resources -- EOG

Page 47: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Noble Energy -- NBL

Page 48: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Core Labs -- CLB

Page 49: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Oceaneering Intl -- OII

Page 50: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Matador Resources -- MTDR

Page 51: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Some of Our Favorites

Page 52: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Wabtec -- WAB

Page 53: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

LKQ Corp -- LKQ

Page 54: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Oceaneering Intl -- OII

Page 55: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

XPO Logistics -- XPO

Page 56: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Polaris -- PII

Page 57: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Matador Resources -- MTDR

Page 58: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

EPL Oil & Gas -- EPL

Page 59: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Bonanza Creek -- BCEI

Page 61: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Stock Picks for 2013Ansys ANSS +30% Liquidity Svcs LQDT -45% Bonanza Creek BCEI +56% Middleby MIDD +87%Cardtronics CATM +83% Magellan MMP +47% Campus Crest CCG -23% Oceaneering OII +47%Core Labs CLB +74% Plains LP PAA +14%Clean Harbors CLH +9% Shuffle Ent SHFL acquiredCatamaran CTRX +6% STAG Industrial STAG +13%Digital Globe DGI +68% Titan Machinery TITN -28%HMS Holdings HMSY -24% Monotype TYPE +94%ITC Holdings ITC +25% Valeant Pharma VRX +85% Total +36%

Page 62: Jeff Friedberg Friedberg Investment Management Investing by InstinctInvesting by Instinct

Stock Picks for 2014American Electric AETI -32% Noble Energy NBL +2%Ansys ANSS -4% Oceaneering OII -10%Ardmore Shipping ASCP -13% Plains GP PAGP +4%Black Diamond BDI.TO -1% Polaris PII -5%Catamaran CTRX -7% Power Integ POWI +14%EPL Oil & Gas EPL +6% ResMed RMD -6%Genesee & Wyo RR GWR +4% STAG Industrial STAG +14%ITC Holdings ITC +9% Wabtec WAB +10%LKQ Corp LKQ -15% Westlake WLK +12%National Inst NATI -8% XPO Logistics XPO +23% Total -1%