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Huge 35% Jump in Average Sales Rate in January

• Average sales rates spiked 23% more than the normal 12% monthly lift, reaching 2.38 home sales per community in January.

• Trafficandsalesduringthelast2weeksweremuchstrongerthanthefirst2weeks,sothemomentumheadingintoFebruaryisevenstrongerthanthedatashows.

• Salesratestrendeddownsosignificantlyduring2014thatthishugemonthlyincreaseisonly1%higherthanlastJanuaryandisstillbelowJanuary2013.

• Ifcommunitycountsgrow11.5%asoursurveyindicatesandsalesratesimprove,our10%salesforecastfor2015istoolow.Whileoptimismhasshifteddramatically,ourbuilderexpectationsindexisthesameaslastyear,sowearenotreadytocallforagreatspringyet. Manyofourbuilderclientsareecstatic.

Source:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLCindependentsurveyof~13%ofallUSnewhomesales,NSA(Data:Jan-15,Pub:Feb-15)

Net Sales Per Community over the Last Month (National Average)

Monthly DistributionEverymonthwesurveymorethan200buildersacrossthenationonnewhomemarketconditions.Oursurveyprovidestimelyandaccurateinsightsonhousingmarketconditionsjustafewdaysaftertheendofeverymonth.Ourreportisthebestmonthlymonitorofnewhomemarketconditionsavailableandincludesthefollowingkeyfeatures:

• Graphsandanalysisofnewhometrafficandsales,pricingtrends, starts,inventory,cancellations,andstartsbyregionandrolled-upnationally

• Timely “questions of the month” ranging from buyer qualifications to labor shortages

• Feedback and direct quotes from public and private builders managingapproximately2,000communitiesacross80metrosandrepresentingapproximately16%ofnewhomesalesannually.

Webelieveoursurveyrepresentsmarketconditionsforproductionvolume builders much more accurately than the Census Bureau. Weinvitethesame5,000+/-builderseachmonthandhavemanyregular survey participants. The Census Bureau sample differs eachmonth,oftenincludesamixofsmaller,custombuilders,andtypically has a huge margin for error.

Housing Surveyfrom the Front Lines

What questions will this report help you answer?• Whatareactivelyselling

builders saying about current housing market conditions?

• Howarenewhomesalesand traffic faring across the regionsandhowdoesthatcompare to last month or last year?

• HowdoIquicklylearnaboutnewhomesales,starts,and pricing trends across the country before data is released by the Census and NAHB?

• HowcanIgetasenseofwhat’shappeninginthehousing market in real time?

Note:Salesratesarepertheoriginalsurveyresponses.Source:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLCindependentsurveyof~13%ofallUSnewhomesales,NSA(Data:Jan-14throughJan-15,Pub:Feb-15)

Energy-Dependent Housing MarketswithAboveAverageJobExposuretoMining/Oil/GasWillbeNegativelyImpactedbyLowerOilPrices

Sources:Brookings,JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Data:Sept-14,Pub:Jan-15)

6.5x

5.2x

1.1x

1.5x

1.5x

1.6x

7.0x

2.3x

Bakersfield

Dallas

San AntonioHouston

New Orleans

Pittsburgh

Oklahoma City

Denver

As market conditions continue to shift, builders’ revenue growth will depend more on where they are geographically positioned.

Whilesalesintheoil-dependentmarketshaveheldupthusfar,webelievejobgrowthwillslowsignificantly(butremainpositive)inthe8energy-dependentmarketsmostimportanttohousing.

Thismapshowsjobexposuretomining/oil/gasinlargehousingmarketscomparedtotheUSaverageof1.0.Forexample,Houston’senergysectorjobexposureis6.5 times the US average.

Impact of Energy Exposure on Builders’ Forecasted Market Growth

Sources:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Data:Jan-15,Pub:Feb-15)

Monthly DistributionThisreportexamineseachofthepubliclytradedhomebuilders(mid,smallandmicro-cap)basedon their geographic footprint and includes:

• Builder rankings by past market performance, current market conditions, and forecasted marketgrowth

• Location comparisons of builders based on the builders’ markets’ fundamentals and submarket desirability

• Builder metrics such as active community count changes, orders, and cancellations

• Overview of each builder evaluating market strengths,weaknesses,theirmedianpriceappreciation,employmentgrowthandpermitscompared to an average of all builders.

Home BuilderAnalysis & Forecast

What questions will this report help you answer?• Past:Whichbuildersshouldbereporting

thehighestrevenuegrowthiftheykeptpacewiththeirmarkets?

• Present:Whichbuildersshouldbehavingthe best quarter in terms of orders and raising price?

• Future:Whichbuildersareinthebestgeographies based on our forecasts?

• Howdocommunitycountschangequarterlyby builder and by region?

• Whichbuildersarelocatedinthemostdesirablesubmarketswiththebestmarketfundamentals?

Forecastedmarketgrowthisacalculationofourforecastedsingle-familypermitgrowthandBurnsHomeValueIndex™,weightedbythenumberofcurrentactivelysellingcommunitiesforeachbuilder.

Source:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Data:Jan-15,Pub:Feb-15)

Current MarketConditions

Nationally, Cold Markets Are Concentrated in California, the Northeast, and the Midwest

Eachmonth,werate70+newconstructionhousingmarketsonfive-pointscale.Some S. California markets and much of the Central ValleyareCold,aswellasmanymajorNortheastmarkets.

GradesWhiteHot

Hot

Warm

Cold

VeryCold

Current Market Conditions (Sales and Pricing Grades)

Sources:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Data:Feb-15,Pub:Feb-15)

Exposure to JBREC rated Cold Markets is Higher for All Builders Compared to Six Months Ago

ColdMarketsaretypically characterized byslowingabsorptionrates, use of incentives to spur sales, and sluggish traffic.

Note: Not all builders operate in each of the Cold markets. Totals include any exposure a builder has to Cold Markets.

Sources:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Data:Feb-15,Pub:Feb-15)

For Rent Beating For SalebyRickPalaciosJr.,DirectorofResearch

Webelievethatthesingle-familyREITsectorisstillinitsinfancy,especiallywhenyouconsiderthatpubliclytradedsingle-familyREITsaccountforlessthan1%ofthe14.9millionsingle-familyrentalhomesthatexistintheUS.Ourfirmhasbeenattheforefrontofthisemerginginstitutionalassetclass,publishingawhitepaperbackin2011titledRentingREOtoStabilizeHousing,wherewerecommendedtheREOtorentalmodelasasolutiontothethenongoingdownturninhousing.Weareverypleasedtoannouncethedevelopmentofanewrecurringresearchreportthatwillfocusonthesingle-familyrentalmarket,withtheaimofhelpingoperators,lenders,investors, and rating agencies navigate this market.

The stock market has changed its tune from being bullish onfor-salehousingtobeingbullishonrentalhousing.Apartmentstocksareup35%YTD,andsingle-familyrentalstocksareup5%—whilethehomebuildersareflat.

Whilesurveyaftersurvey(includingourown)indicatesthatconsumersoverwhelminglywanttoownahomeatsomepointintheirlives,thereisabigdifferencebetweentheambitiontoownandtheabilitytoown.Increasingly,itappearsthatfinanciallystrappedfamiliesdesirousofsingle-familylivingareturningtorentalhousing.

Professionally Managed Rental HomesPeopleforgetthatittookseveraldecadesfortheapartmentsectortoflourishfromacottageindustryintoa$92billiondollarpubliclytradedinvestmentclass.Wethinkthesingle-familyREITsectorwillbeabletoscaleat a much quicker pace, due in large part to ubiquitous dataandtechnologiesthatsimplydidnotexistuntiljustrecently.Somemightworrythatsingle-familyREITswillpulldemandawayfromapartmentREITs;however,therenterprofileforeachsubsectorisverydifferent,allowingforcontinuedgrowthacrosstheentirerentaluniverse.

Sources:JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC;ThompsonONE

Sample NewsletterPublishedDecember2014

Mind the Gap:Starts vs. CompletionsConstructionDelays&ImplicationsforBuildingProductSectorin2013

White PaperPublishedJanuary2013

Inmid-2012asthehousingrecoverywaspickingupsteam,manyofourclientswerepuzzledbythefactthatbuildingproductsuppliershadnotyetseenabroadpickupindemand.Wethusexaminedhowhousingrecoveriestypicallyplayout,payingcloseattentiontotherelationshipbetweenvariousphasesofthebuildcycle–namelystartsandcompletions.Asseeninthetablebelow,ourresearchuncoveredthatdatingbackto1985,a7to8monthlagbetweengrowthinhousingstartsandcompletionsistypicalinconstructionrecoveries.Assuch,buildingproductindustryperformanceismuchmorecorrelatedwithhousingcompletions.Weultimatelyconcludedthatcompletionswouldbegintocatchupwithstartsinearly2013.Consequently,weadvisedourclientsthatbuildingproductsupplierswithproductsgearedtowardlaterstagesofconstructionaswellasrepairandremodelactivitywouldbegintoseedemandaccelerateata10%+y/yclipinearly2013,roughly7to8monthsafterhousingstartsbeganacceleratingatadouble-digitclip.Inaddition,westressedthathousing’spositivefeedbackloopwouldhelpbuildingproductcompaniesthatdependonrepairandremodelspendingin2013.

Asshowninthechartsonthenextpage,single-familycompletionsbegantoaccelerateata10%+clipbeginninginJanuary2013,ultimatelygrowingby18%throughthefullcalendaryear.Moreover,buildingproductcompanystocksstartedtotakeoffinearly2013andhavesinceoutperformedtheS&P500byawidemargin.

ConstructionRecovery Phase

Single-Family Starts Beginto Accelerate at 10%+ Y/Y

Single-Family Completions Begin to Accelerate at 10%+ Y/Y

Month Lag (Double-Digit Growth in Starts

and Completions)1991-1993 March,1992 October,1992 7Months1997-1999 October,1998 May,1999 7Months2001-2004 October,2003 June,2004 8Months

Source:CensusBureau,JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,LLC(Rolling12-month,NSA)

Withtwoyearsnowintherearviewmirror,wecanseeveryclearlythatourconclusionsandrecommendationsbackinJanuary2013werespot-on.

John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC)isanationalindependentresearchproviderandconsultingfirmfocusedontheU.S.housingindustry.Ourgoalistoprovidestrategicguidancethatdrivesprofitability.Ourpassionateteamof50+analystsandconsultantshelpourclientsidentifyareasofopportunityandriskthroughtimelyandtrustedanalysis.Weareabletodothisbecauseofour:

About Us

• Client focus. Ourclientshavepersonalaccesstoourteamofmarketandindustryexperts.Wealsoconnectclientstoopportunitiesfornewbusiness.Weseektocontinuallyinnovateandimproveourpracticestomakeourclients’liveseasier.

• Speed. Wearefocusedexclusivelyonhousingandstrivetohavethemostcurrentdataatourfingertips.Wearediligent,regularlyoutinthefield,andtappedintoindustryleaders—resulting in great research and advice.

• Proprietarytools. Wehavecreatedmanytoolstoprovide unique and timely insight. They include: a monthly surveyofbuilderexecutives,severalindicesandforecasts,anda demand model by price range and household composition.

• Dataquality. Wecreate,collectandbuythebestindustrydataavailable,enablingouranalyststoexplainwhatisgoingonandhowclientscanapplythatinsighttotheirbusinessplanning.

• Localknowledge. Ourteamhasofficesin10ofthemajor housing markets across the country.

• Managementexpertise. Ourteamleadersareseasonedindustryveteranswhohavelearnedfrommultiplehousing cycles.

• Trusted integrity.Weareindependentadvisors.Wedonotrecommendinvestmentsortakecontingencyfeessoit’sclearwehavenoconflictingagendas.

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John BurnsCEO

Pete Reeb

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Paige Shipp

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Steve DutraDataManagement

Team

Client Resources

Our

John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC takes great pride in our highly educated, resourcefulandexperiencedteamthatincludespractitionerswith25+yearsofexperienceinbothhomebuildingandcommunity development. As a research client, you gain access to our team across the nation to discuss market conditions, our current research and our forecasts.

Access to Our Nationwide Team of Experts

Rick PalaciosDirectorofResearch

Regional Offices

Sacramento, CA

Irvine, CA

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New England

Washington, DC

Atlanta, GA

Boca Raton, FL

Nicole Murray

Todd TomalakGreen Bay, WI

Diverse Client Base

Single-Family Rental Banks

Builders

Building Products

DevelopersHedge Funds

Investors

Others

Private Equity

Our Clients Outperform Their PeersOurdiverseclientbaseallowsustolookatthemarketfromavarietyofperspectives.Ourclientsconsistentlyoutperform their peers.

• Superior Returns. AsofDecember2014,ourpublicly-tradedhomebuilderclients’returnswere337%sinceDecember2008comparedtonon-clientsat80%.

• NewlyCapitalized. AllofthehomebuildersthatfiledIPOsin2013andearly2014areresearchand/orconsultingclientsofourfirm.

• Cyclical Investors. Ourclientsuseourresearchtoappropriatelytimethemarket.Ourtwolargestclientsin2006soldtheircompaniesathugebookvalue/stockpricepremiums.Threeofourinvestmentclientsin2007/2008reported100%+returns.

• Repeat Business. Ourclientshavemadesmartlandportfolioacquisitions,valuationsandduediligencedecisions.Eighty-fivepercentofourconsultingassignmentscomefromrepeatcustomers.

ClientsOur

Research Services

Metro Analysis & ForecastThismonthlyreportprovidesanoverviewofmajorhousingandeconomicmetrics,aswellasourforecasts,atanMSAlevel.Thisoverviewiscombinedwithlocalinsight,proprietarysurveys,andextensivedataanalysis to give a complete picture of the important housing dynamics and shifts at the market level.

Regional Analysis & ForecastThis comprehensive monthly report summarizes important informationintenregionsandkeymetroareas.Thisincludesfive-yearpricingforecasts,supplyanddemand,housingaffordability,and market health.

Home Builder Analysis & ForecastThisreportexamineseachofthepubliclytradedhomebuildersandranksthembasedontheirgeographicfootprintandforecastedmarketgrowth.Italsoincludeslocationcomparisonsofbuildersbasedonthebuilders’marketfundamentalsandsubmarketdesirability.

Comprehensive ResearchEverymonth,weanalyzehousingdataatthemetro,regional,andnationallevelstoprovideyouwiththeinformationyouneedforacompetitiveedge.Clientsreceiveauniquecombinationofthethreereportsbelowtoanswerquestionsandgetinsightbasedontheir business.

U.S. Housing Analysis & ForecastThismonthlyreportexaminesmorethan150metricsrelatedtohousing.TheExecutiveSummarygivesanoverviewoftheimportantmetricsaffectingthehousingmarketandourviewoftheirimpactonthefuture.

Monthly Builder Survey Everymonthwesurveymorethan200buildersacrossthenationonnewhomemarketconditions.Oursurveyprovidestimelyandaccurateinsightsonhousingmarketconditionsjustafewdaysaftertheendofeverymonth.WebelieveoursurveyrepresentsmarketconditionsforproductionvolumebuildersmuchmoreaccuratelythantheCensusBureau’ssurveydoes.

Quarterly Land Survey and Land IndexOurquarterlylandsurveyandindexprovidesabalancedqualitativeandquantitativeapproachtounderstandingthelandmarket,usingaproprietarymodelbuiltthroughpublisheddata,localexpertise,andourownmarketknowledge.

The US Housing Analysis and Forecast, Monthly Builder Survey and Quarterly Land Survey and Land Indexcomewitheveryresearch subscription.

Single-Family Rental Analysis & ForecastThisquarterlyreportexaminesthesingle-familyrentalmarket,includingsingle-familyrents,vacancy,andhomepriceappreciation.Monthlyweprovidetwopagesofdataforeachofthe65metroareasidentifiedastopsingle-familyrentalmarketsacrossthecountry.

Client Events

• Client-exclusive webinars. WesponsorwebinarswithQ&Athatinformsourclientsoftimelymarketdynamicsandoffersinsightonspecialtyareaslikeconsumerresearch.

•

•

Apartment Analysis & ForecastThiswide-rangingquarterlyreportincludesaneconomicoutlookforthemultifamilymarketandanalysisoftheinterplaybetweenhousingandapartmentmarketdynamicsanddemographics.Includedarefive-yearapartmentrentforecastsandrankingsoftopapartmentREITsbasedontheirregionaldiversificationandother economic factors.

National Consumer ResearchWehavepartneredwithbuildersanddevelopersacrossthenationtolaunchourthirdannualConsumerInsightssurvey.Thesethreesurveyscombinedpresentmorethan50,000totalresponsesfromprospectivehome buyers. Research clients are given the opportunity to purchase the national report.

Ongoing Insight

• White Papers:Wepublishthoroughresearchreportscoveringrelevantandimportanttopics.

• Truth in Housing:WeregularlysendoutTruthinHousingemailnotestoclientsthatincluderelevantnon-confidentialinsightthatweuncoverinthefield,atindustryconferences,orthroughourindustrycontacts.

• Public Builder Call Summaries:Wesummarizekeyperformancestatisticsandmarketinsightfromthepublic builder quarterly earnings conference calls.

Client-Exclusive Annual Housing Conference.Clientsreceiveoneinvitationtoourannualclient-onlyconference,TheSummit,wherewegatherleadersacrossthehousingindustryforadayandahalfofthought-provokingdiscussionandnetworking.Wepublishanannualsummaryoftheeventforclientsonly.

Client-Exclusive Annual Housing Conference. TheHousingMarketOutlookConferenceisdesignedtobetheindustry’smostinformativeday,discussingwhatisinstoreforthemarketintheupcomingyear.WeholdthemeetinginNewYorkandintroducebuildersanddeveloperstomoneysourcesaswell.

HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

Client Services

• Executive Access. Personalaccesstoourteamofmarketexpertsandresearchanalysts.

• Presentations. Asrequested,wemeetwithourclientsandprovideformalorinformalindustryormarket-specificupdates.

• Introductions. Wehavehelpedmanyofourclientsfindabuilder,developer,orcapitalpartnerandwehaveintroducedmanyofourclientstospecificindustryexperts.

• Data Access. Wecollect,scrub,andanalyzemorethan1,000datapointseachcycle.Ourclientshaveaccesstoreasonableandappropriatedataexportsfromourteam’sSQLdatabase.

SUMMITTHE

Specialized Reports: Weofferspecializedreportsthatareavailableatanadditionalcost.

Customized ConsultingOurleadershipcanhelpexecutivesmakemoreinformeddecisionsonawidevarietyofissues,includingmarket feasibility, land and company valuation, demographic drivers, home and community design, and effectivemarketing.

Lisa Marquis JacksonSr.VicePresident

For more information about our research, please contact:

lmjackson@realestateconsulting.com(214)389-9003

ClientFeedback

Home Builder, CEO

“MyexperiencewithJohnBurns has enabled me to better assess current market risk level at any point in the homebuilding cycle. Also, I havebeenabletomakenewvaluable contacts.”

Building Product Manufacturer, President

“The John Burns reporting provides the timeliest local market pulse of any national data service allowingmyresidentialdivisionstoknowexactlywheretofocus.Lisa Jackson has the contacts andinsighttoprovidethemost thorough local market analysis enabling us to make the right decisions.”Land Developer, VP

“Quick accessibility of local marketknowledgeiscriticalfor us. This is one of the reasonswhyweswitched(toJohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting).”

Private Equity, President

“Wewouldnotconsiderusinganyothergroup.(Yourwork)isalwayswellresearchedandthought out.”

Institutional Investor,Portfolio Manager

“Theclientexperiencehasbeengreat.Itmakesmewishwehad allocated more capital to residential development in this fund.”

Home Builder, President

“John Burns Real Estate Company delivers valuable and comprehensive market data, whichwefeelitisthebestintheindustry. They also facilitated longstandingrelationshipswithindustryleadersandnowplayaninstrumental part in our culture by speaking at our annual events and enlightening our company on market trends.”

WHYFOLLOWHOUSING?

HOUSING HAS A CRITICAL IMPACT ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

Housing comprises a significantportionofGDP.

EMPLOYMENT IS VERY DEPENDENT ON HOUSING

There are 3 jobs created every year per home built:

• 1.5inconstruction

• 1.5inrelatedfields(materials,banking,etc).

JohnfoundedJohnBurnsRealEstateConsultingin2001,buthehasadvisedrealestateexecutivesformorethan25years.HespenteightyearsinKPMGPeatMarwick’sRealEstateConsultingpracticeandtwoyearsasaCPAbeforestarting JBREC.

ManyofthelargestcompaniesintherealestateandinvestmentindustriesretainJohnforongoingresearchandadvice,aswellascustomizedmarketandconsumerresearchstudiestohelpwithportfolio,strategic,andcommunity-specificdecisions.

Highlyregardedasanauthorityinthehousingindustry,250,000peoplefollowJohn’sInfluencercolumnonLinkedIn,28,000subscribetohisfreeBuildingMarketIntelligenceemails.ThemediaturnstoJohnforinsightonthehousingmarketasoftenas60timesperyear.

Presentingourteam’sindustryknowledgetogroupsofsmartpeopleandlearningfromthemduringtheQ&AafterwardisoneofJohn’spleasures.Thefeedbackhelpshimworkhardertomakeourresearchevenbetter.JohnhasaB.A.EconomicsfromStanfordUniversityandaMBAfromtheUniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles.Whennotdissectinganddisseminatingdataforclientsacrossthecountry,Johnattendedhomegamesforall30majorleaguebaseballteams.Heregularlyruns5Ks,andhasseeneveryAcademyAward-winningBestPicture.

EDUCATIONB.A. Economics from Stanford UniversityMBAfromtheUniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles

JOHN BURNSCEO

(949)870-1210 jburns@realestateconsulting.com

AsSeniorVicePresident,Lisaleadsthecompany’sstrategicresearchandbusinessdevelopmentefforts.Withover23yearsofexperienceinhousingresearch,sheisaprovenindustrystrategistwithademonstratedtrackrecordfordrivinggrowthandsuccessfullycreatingsolutionsforcomplexbusinesschallengesandopportunities.Leveragingthestrengthofhernetwork,experienceandindustryknowledge,Lisaisadriverofopportunityandhasdevelopedareputation for being a dynamic and strategic business advisor.

PriortojoiningJohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting,Lisawasanaward-winningbusinessjournalistprovidingin-depthnewsandinterpretivecoverageofthehousingindustryfor18years—mostrecentlywithHanleyWoodpublications.Shealsogainedindustryexperienceasanaccountdirectorforaboutiquemarketingresearchfirm,creatingcustomresearchproductsforbusiness-to-businessclients.

Lisahasbeenwidelysourcedinmajormediaincludingthe Wall Street Journal, NPR, and CNBC.

In her free time, Lisa enjoys tending to her budding, urban farm.

EducationB.S.inMassCommunicationsfromIllinoisStateUniversity

LISA MARQUIS JACKSONSr.VicePresident

(214)389-9003 lmjackson@realestateconsulting.com

Withmorethan10yearsofexperienceinresidentialrealestateandeconomicresearch,Rickoverseesallresearchpertainingtothesingle-familyforsale/rent,multifamilyandbuildingproductsectors.

Previously,RickworkedasanEquityResearchAssociate(homebuilders)atMorganStanleyinNewYork.Inaddition,hespentseveralyearsasanAnalystattheMilkenInstitute,aneconomicthinktanklocatedinSantaMonica,California.

RickisregularlyquotedinlocalnewspublicationsaswellasmajoroutletssuchastheWall Street Journal, Bloomberg Businessweek, CNBC, CNN, MSNBC, and Professional Builder.In his free time Rick loves to travel.

EDUCATIONM.S.inRealEstateEconomicsandFinancefromtheLondonSchoolofEconomicsB.A. from the University of California, Irvine

RICK PALACIOS JR.DirectorofResearch

(949)870-1244 rpalacios@realestateconsulting.com

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