GODAE-IGST 20070807-09

Japan National ReportJapan National Report

ByBy

Masa KAMACHI & Tsohiyuki AwajiMasa KAMACHI & Tsohiyuki Awaji

Outline1. Member systems of Japan GODAE2. MOVE/MRI.COM3. K-74. Impact to NWP (Kyushu Univ. and JMA) Action 7

GODAE-IGST 20070807-09

1. Systems of Japan GODAE members

See Table

Progress in 2006-2007:1. JMA-MRI JMA’s new operational system MOVE (from 2008/04) Reanalysis ver.2: G:1948-2006+, WNP: 1985-2006+ OSE/OSSE: TAO/Triton, Argo, SSH, SV-adjoint sensitivity Impact to NWP: Boundary condition for a Typhoon coupled model Coastal application (Japan Weather Association)2. Kyoto-FRCGC (former K-7): 90’s reanalysis coastal operation system development Backward trajectory (atmospheric humidity)3. Kyushu Univ. (RIAMOM): Operation in Fisheries Agency (Japan Sea)4. FRCGC JCOPE: Operation in Fisheries Agency (Kuroshio-Oyashio)

GODAE-IGST 20070807-09

2. Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation 2. Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation (MOVE/MRI.COM) System in JMA/MRI: (MOVE/MRI.COM) System in JMA/MRI:

Masa KAMACHIMasa KAMACHI

Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute

GODAE-IGST 20070807-09

MRI MOVE/MRI.COM (Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation) system uses three dimensional Variational (3D-VAR) method with vertical coupled T-S Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) modal decomposition with area partition.

Obs. Data: Sat-Alt, SST, in situ T & S (e.g., ship, ARGO, Tao/Triton)

Aims

1. Opt. Init. Cond. for Forecasting (Seasonal-Interannual (ElNino), Ocean state around Japan)

2. Reanalysis:

Western North Pacific : 1992-2006+

(1985-2007+)

North Pacific : 1960-2006+ Global : 1949-2006+

MOVE/MRI.COM system

Area Global North Pacific

AimsInitial Condition For

Seasonal & ElNino Forecasting

Monitoring and Forecasting around

Japan

Oper. JMA ODAS COMPASS-K

Res.

(next oper.)

MOVE-G

(Prediction,

Reanalysis)

MOVE-NP

(Prediction,

Reanalysis)

GODAE-IGST 20070807-09

Global Model-1 : (1°×1°:1/3° tropical region, 54 Layer)Nested-1 Model-2： 15S-65N, 100E-75W ( 0.5°×0.5°, 54 Layer)Nested-2 Model-3： 15N-65N, 115E-160W (0.1°×0.1°, 54 Layer)

Three OGCMs (Double Nesting) -> see System Description

Usui et al. （ 2005)

Schematic Diagram of MOVE/MRI.COM (Operation in JMA)

Satellite AltimetryIn Situ T,S SST Analysis

Present Ocean (Assimilated) Field

Analysis Field

Predicted FieldClimatology

First Guess

Weighted Average

Optimal Analysis(3D-VAR)

GTS Domestic Org.Argo

OGCM (MRI.COM)

Initial Condition Atmos. Forcing

Analysis Increment

OGCM (MRI.COM) Initial Condition

Atmos. Forcing

Ocean Forecasting Next Assimilation Cycle*

Satellite Observation

Quality Control

(SST)

(IAU)

*

B:T-S EOF

GODAE-IGST 20070807-09

Velocity Field (Argo salinity impact)

1993-2001 mean

Eq-140W Sep96-Aug01 mean

Tao

With S-correction

Without S-corection

Zonal volume transport (Sv) for (a) the layer

with 　 < 24.3 (kg/m3) and

(b) the layer with 24.4< 　 < 26.5 (kg/m3)

Cf. Johnson et al., (2000)

GODAE-IGST 20070807-09

ASUKA-linePN-line

OK-line

OICE-line

40

14 11

25

116

17

41

12

ASUKA-linePN-line

OK-line

OICE-line

40

14 11

25

116

17

41

12

OK-line

OICE-line(northeastward transport)

(southwestward transport)

PN-line

•The volume transport in the East China Sea is 25 Sv at PN line and its variation is small.

•Ryukyu Current System has a transport from 6 Sv east of Taiwan to 17 Sv east of Amami, and increase of the transport is probably supplied by the Kuroshio recirculation flow (see around OK line).

•The eastward transport at the Kuroshio-Oyashio transition area east of Japan has 41 Sv (32º-36ºN) and 12 Sv (36º-39ºN).

•Oyashio has 14 Sv southward in the nearshore and 11 Sv northward transport crossing OICE line, and seasonal variation shows maximum in winter.

Mean volume transport (arrow) of current system sea around Japan (unit is Sv). Mean sea surface height is also shown (contour line : c.i. is 10 cm).

Assim : 40SvObs : 42Sv

ASUKA-line

Example of Reanalysis Product : 1993-2004Transport of Current System around Japan Usui et al. (2005)

GODAE-IGST 20070807-09

BLT (1949-2006 Eq. Pac.BLT (color), SST (29.0deg., black line), SSS (35.0psu, white line)

GODAE-IGST 20070807-09

Examples of Water Mass in the North PacificMesoscale eddy and water mass (2000/

10, vertical section along 144E)

Temperature Salinity

North Pacific Intermediate WaterSalinity-min. （ 165E， 2000/4 and 9）

2000/9 2000/4

Assim

Independent

Obs.

Kuroshio (subtropical) and Oyashio (subpolar) waters

GODAE-IGST 20070807-09

Water Type (Mean value in 1949-2005 vs. Climatology)

Take mean in time->Take mean in each region and on each density surface

ENPTW: Eastern North Pacific Tropical WaterESPTW: South ENPCW: Eastern North Pacific Central WaterWNPCW: Western PEW: Pacific Equatorial WaterESPCW: Eastern South Pacifc Central WaterWSPCW: Western

Emery 2001

Present systems

Global Warming, SI-predictions (Global, 1 ˚)

Ocean Climate: (N. Pac, 1/2˚）Ocean Weather （W.N. Pac, 0.1˚）

Regional（ 1/10˚[11

km]）（ Forecasting around Japan）

Coastal:1 /120˚（ 1km）

Global:1 /12˚(10km)

Future Plan

Regional:1 /60˚（ 2km）

nesting

Finer resolution

(x6)

Local weather-climate model (strong currents, Frontal structure)

Coastal ocean (High tide forecasting for disaster prevention)

Forecasting of 2004 Kuroshio Large Meander

Future Plan for Coastal: MOVE/MRI.COM-C

ARGO float assimilation

Typhoon 23, in Aug 30, 2004

IGST 200708

3. Four-Dimensional Variational Coupled Data Ass3. Four-Dimensional Variational Coupled Data Assimilation by Kyoto-FRCGC (former K-7)imilation by Kyoto-FRCGC (former K-7)

Toshiyuki Awaji Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

Department of Geophysics, School of Science, Kyoto University

Members: Members: N. Sugiura, S. Masuda, T. Mochizuki, T. Miyama, H. Igarashi, N. Ishida, T. Toyoda (JAMSTEC)N. Sugiura, S. Masuda, T. Mochizuki, T. Miyama, H. Igarashi, N. Ishida, T. Toyoda (JAMSTEC)K. Horiuchi, H. Hiyoshi (AESTO), N. Komori (JAMSTEC/Earth Simulator Center)K. Horiuchi, H. Hiyoshi (AESTO), N. Komori (JAMSTEC/Earth Simulator Center)Yoichi Ishikawa (Kyoto Univ.Yoichi Ishikawa (Kyoto Univ. ）） ,Masa Kamachi(JMA-MRI),Masa Kamachi(JMA-MRI)

　　　　　　

2006-2007 progress2006-2007 progress　　　　　　 CDA for 90’s ReanalysisCDA for 90’s Reanalysis 　　　　

“K7” is the symbolic name of Category 7 of MEXT’s ResearMEXT’s Research Revolution 2002 (RR2002) ch Revolution 2002 (RR2002) Project Using the Earth SimulaProject Using the Earth Simulator (called “KYOUSEI 7” in Japtor (called “KYOUSEI 7” in Japanese)anese)

IGST 200708

Experimental SettingsExperimental Settings

Coupled Model on ES (CFES):Coupled Model on ES (CFES): T42L24 AFES for AGCMT42L24 AFES for AGCM 　　 (originally CCSR/NIES AGCM and then improved: e.g.: (originally CCSR/NIES AGCM and then improved: e.g.:

new radiation code new radiation code MstrnXMstrnX [Nakajima et al. 2000] and diagnostic code of [Nakajima et al. 2000] and diagnostic code of marine marine stratocumulusstratocumulus [Mochizuki et al. 2006] ) [Mochizuki et al. 2006] )

1x1deg L36 MOM3 for OGCM1x1deg L36 MOM3 for OGCM Canopy type Model for LandCanopy type Model for Land (MATSIRO) (MATSIRO) IARC Sea-Ice ModelIARC Sea-Ice Model No flux correction No flux correction between different spheresbetween different spheres

Assimilation Method: 4DVAR Assimilation Method: 4DVAR Adjoint OGCM and adjoint AGCM are coupledAdjoint OGCM and adjoint AGCM are coupled

Assimilation WindowAssimilation Window Climatological seasonal exp.: 1 year windowClimatological seasonal exp.: 1 year window (using 1-month OBS data) (using 1-month OBS data) 1996,97,98 (3-year-long specific) reanalysis exp.: a sequence of 9-month windo1996,97,98 (3-year-long specific) reanalysis exp.: a sequence of 9-month windo

ww (using series of 10-day means of OBS data) and 11ensemble experiments wer (using series of 10-day means of OBS data) and 11ensemble experiments were conducted to cope with weather modese conducted to cope with weather modes

Major Assimilated ElementsMajor Assimilated Elements Atmosphere: Atmosphere: NCEP’s BUFR data and SSM/INCEP’s BUFR data and SSM/I sea wind sea wind Ocean: Ocean: WOA data, T/P altimeter data, FNMOC dataset, OISST values, and ARGO fWOA data, T/P altimeter data, FNMOC dataset, OISST values, and ARGO f

loat dataloat data from the Coriolis Data Center from the Coriolis Data Center Diagnostic Run: First guess fieldDiagnostic Run: First guess field

20-yr free integration of CGCM (or OGCM)20-yr free integration of CGCM (or OGCM)

IGST 200708

SST variation in the equatorial SST variation in the equatorial region in CDAregion in CDA

97-98 ENSO event is well reproduced in the assimilation field.

Simulation Assimilation Reynolds SST

Data delivery: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/k7-dbase2/Data delivery: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/k7-dbase2/

IGST 200708

Correction of Westerly Wind Burst by Correction of Westerly Wind Burst by CDACDA 　　

WWB events become to occur realistically by CDA procedure.

Simulation Assimilation NCEP

IGST 200708

9-month assimilation

Thus the subsequent 15-month “pure” forecast with the adjusted ocean initial condition : conducted

Half year-period 4DVAR initialization is underway towards 1-year-longer

lead prediction of EL NINO

15-month “pure” prediction

Predictability continues beyond the assimilation period

Ensemble 4DVAR runs show the Implication to enhanced predictability

Results of the inner model (SST)

40

41

42

141 142 143 144

2002.640

41

42

141 142 143 144

2002.740

41

42

141 142 143 144

2002.8

2002 Jun. - Aug.observation

model result