january 7–26, 2020 · 2020-07-01 · lithuania. lithuanian farmers and greens union. labour...

Public Opinion Poll: Lithuania

January 7–26, 2020

Detailed Methodology

2

• The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by Norstat Eesti AS.

• Data was collected between January 7 and January 26, 2020 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes.

• The sample comprised 1,007 residents of Lithuania, aged 18 and older. The sample is representative of the adult population of Lithuania by NUTS-3 region (Apskritys/Counties) and urbanicity, in accordance with the 2011 Census of Lithuania.

• The survey’s response rate was 51 percent. The margin of error for the full sample is ±3.1points at the 95 percent confidence level.

• A multistage probability sampling method was used, employing a random route method forhousehold selection and the Kish grid for respondent selection.

• Stage 1: PPS stratification across ten NUTS-3 regions.• Stage 2: PPS stratification by urbanicity.• Stage 3: Random allocation of primary sampling units across settlements.

• The sample is weighted for county, urbanicity, gender, age, nationality, and educational attainment level based on the results of the 2011 Census.

• Interviews were conducted in Lithuanian.

• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

• Cited bases are weighted.

http://www.iri.org/

https://www.iri.org/news-and-resource?type=1

https://norstat.ee/

Opinions of the National and Regional Context

In general, would you say that Lithuania is headed in the right direction or in the wrong direction?

52%

39%

9%

In the right direction In the wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer

4

What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous answers)

35%10%

7%7%

4%4%

4%3%3%3%3%3%

2%2%2%2%2%

1%1%1%1%

2%1%1%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Economy - cost of living, high pricesEconomy - unemployment

CorruptionGovernment/Politics

PensionsPoverty

Economy - other/generalHealthcareEducationMigration

Brain DrainEconomy - small business opportunities/access to loans

Low wagesInternal conflictsSocial inequality

Social services/ benefitsLack of unityEnvironment

External conflicts/ WarInsecurity

Crime/Public SafetyOther

No problemDon't know / Refused to answer

5

*Responses receiving less than 1% are collapsed into Other.

How about at the European level? What is the biggest single problem facing Europe today, the one that you are most concerned about?

(Spontaneous answers)17%

9%7%

7%6%

5%4%4%

4%3%3%

2%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%

3%4%

14%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

MigrationTerrorismInsecurity

Economy - cost of living, high pricesInternal conflicts

External conflicts/ WarEnvironment

Natural disastersEconomy - other/general

CorruptionEconomy - unemployment

Illicit drugsCrime/Public Safety

Government/PoliticsSocial services/ benefits

PensionsHealthcare

PovertyLack of unity

Brain DrainOther

No problemDon't know / Refused to answer

6


How would you describe the current economic situation of your household?

6%

68%

23%

3%<1%

Very Good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer

7

How likely or unlikely are ordinary people able to influence decisions made in Lithuania?

7%

27%

40%

26%

1%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Very Likely

Somewhat likely

Somewhat unlikely

Very unlikely

Don't know/Refused to answer

8

How important or unimportant is it that all members of our country’s adult population, including women, young adults,

minorities, and people with disabilities, are included in political decision-making?

9

1%

1%

7%

34%

57%

0% 20% 40% 60%


Very unimportant

Somewhat unimportant

Somewhat important

Very important

39%

56%

5%

Yes

No


45%

53%

2%

Do you think that today’s generation of young people has a good future in Lithuania or not?

10

Total population

Young people (18-29)Base: n=165

Did you vote in the Lithuanian parliamentary elections in 2016?

71%

28%

1%

Yes

No

Don't know/Refusedto answer

11

25%

17%

11%

5%

5%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

<1%

28%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union

Homeland Union- Lithuanian Christian Democrats

Social Democratic Party of Lithuania

Labour Party

Liberal Movement

Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania- Christian FamiliesAlliance

Party Order and Justice

Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals)

Lithuanian Green Party

The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Puteikis and K.Krivickas

The Way of Courage

Don't know / Refused to answer

For which party did you vote?(Respondents who voted in the 2016 elections, n=716)

12

If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, how likely would you be to vote in this election?

13

3%

12%

11%

17%

58%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%


I wouldn't vote for sure

I probably wouldn't vote

I would probably vote

I would vote for sure

If the following parties/coalitions would run candidates in these elections, for which party would you vote?

14

27%

20%

14%

10%

6%

6%

5%

5%

3%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Homeland Union- LithuanianChristian Democrats

Social Democratic Party ofLithuania

Lithuanian Farmers and GreensUnion

Labour Party


The Anti-Corruption Coalition ofN. Puteikis and K. Krivickas

Liberal Movement

Electoral Action of Poles inLithuania- Christian Families…

Lithuanian Freedom Union(liberals)

Lithuanian People's Party


Lithuanian List

The Way of Courage

12%

9%

6%

5%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

17%

40%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%




Labour Party


The Anti-Corruption Coalition ofN. Puteikis and K. Krivickas

Liberal Movement


Lithuanian Freedom Union(liberals)



Lithuanian List

The Way of Courage

Would not vote


Decided voters, n=432

*Decided voters are those who named a valid political party.

If the following parties/coalitions would run candidates in these elections, for which party would you vote?

15

29%

19%

14%

10%

6%

5%

5%

4%

4%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%




Labour Party



Liberal Movement

The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N.Puteikis and K. Krivickas




The Way of Courage

Lithuanian List

15%10%

7%5%

3%3%3%2%2%1%<1%<1%<1%

4%

44%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%


Social Democratic Party of Lithuania

Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union

Labour Party


Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania-Christian Families Alliance

Liberal Movement

The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N.Puteikis and K. Krivickas




The Way of Courage

Lithuanian List

Would not vote


Decided and likely voters, n=389

*Decided and likely voters are those who would or probably would vote, and who also named a valid political party.

Likely voters, n=752

75%

23%3%

I would/probably would voteI wouldn't/probably wouldn't voteDon't know/Refused to answer

If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, how likely would you be to vote in this election?

Do you believe that democracy is the best possible form of government for Lithuania or not?

65%

19%

7%

9%Yes, it is the best possibleform of government forour country.

No, there are other formsof government that couldbe equally good for ourcountry.

No, there are other formsof government that arebetter than democracy.

Don't know/Refused toanswer

16

Some people argue that the party choices in our country’s politics are too limited and that new political forces should

provide other alternatives in future elections. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement?

17

4%

28%

20%

34%

15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%


Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

Some people argue that the party choices in our country’s politics are too limited and that new political forces should provide other

alternatives in future elections. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement?

18

15%

25%

34%

36%

20%

14%

28%

19%

4%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

All Respondents

Youth 18-29n=165

Strongly agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree


Media Preferences

From which source do you get most of your daily social and political news?

1%

2%

2%

4%

14%

32%

45%


Major newspapers, such as Lietuvos rytas, Versložinios, Respublika, Kauno diena

Offline sources, such as interactions with family,friends, or colleagues

Social media such as Facebook, Twitter,Instagram, LinkedIn

Commercial television and radio broadcasters,such as TV3, LNK, M-1, RC

Online news sources, such as online newspaperswebsites and blogs

Public television and radio broadcasters, such asLRT, LRT radio

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

20

How reliable or unreliable do you find the following sources of news:

21

23%

13%

8%

3%

3%

2%

58%

56%

37%

16%

21%

10%

13%

23%

15%

28%

34%

16%

3%

4%

4%

21%

13%

13%

4%

4%

36%

32%

29%

59%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

National Public TV/ Radio

National commercial TV/ Radio

Western TV/Radio

Russian TV/Radio

Facebook

VK.ru

Very reliable Somewhat reliable Somewhat unreliable Very unreliable Don't know/Refused to answer

Do you access news in Russian?

64%

34%

2%

Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer

22

27%

15%

12%

5%

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

12%

38%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Delfi

Vesti.ru

RT

RIA Novosti

Baltnews

Gazeta.ru

Rossia RTR

Rubaltic

Kurier

Lenta.ru

Meduza

Other


If so, can you name some sources of news you use in Russian? (Up to 3 answers)

23

(Respondents who access news in Russian: n=646, Local list provided)

Do you access news in any other languages?

40%

58%

2%


24

17%14%

13%12%

9%7%

3%3%

2%2%2%1%1%

1%1%1%1%

5%30%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

BBCSources of news in English

The Internet and social mediaCNN

Sources of news in PolishTV channels

TV PoloniaEuronews

RTLDW

RadioSources of news in German

Sources of news in UkranianDiscovery

Belarus 24News portals online

Kurier WileńskiOther


If so, can you name some sources of news you use in other languages? (Up to 3 answers)

25

(Respondents who access news in any other language: n=399, Top three spontaneous answers)


Do you support or oppose blocking television and radio broadcasts from the Russian Federation into Lithuania?

26

7%

14%

25%

49%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Always, I believe all broadcastsfrom the Russian Federationshould be blocked.

Mostly, I believe that mostbroadcasts from the RussianFederation should be blocked.

Rarely, I believe that only a smallsection of broadcasts from theRussian Federation should beblocked.

Never, I believe that nobroadcasts from the RussianFederation should be blocked.


How much do you trust or distrust the national media’s accuracy in its coverage of the following topics?

27

17%

16%

16%

13%

7%

61%

60%

63%

62%

43%

16%

18%

16%

17%

31%

2%

3%

3%

3%

11% 1%

4%

2%

3%

5%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Local community socialand political news

National social and political news

European social and political news

International (outside Europe) socialand political news

Russian social and political news

Fully trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrustFully distrust There is no coverage Don't know/Refused to answer

Values

On a scale from 1 to 5, does Lithuania have more in common with Western Europe or with Russia, in the following areas. 1 would mean Lithuania is totally like Western Europe, while 5 would mean totally

like Russia.

29

25%

23%

16%

15%

40%

39%

37%

32%

28%

29%

33%

33%

6%

6%

11%

14%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Culture and intellectual life

Morality and values

Employment and standard of living

Healthcare, pensions, andother social benefits

Totally like Western Europe (1) 2 3 4 Totally like Russia (5) Don't know/Refused to answer

And, for each of these aspects, would you like it to have more in common with Western Europe or Russia?

30

83%

80%

72%

69%

7%

9%

16%

18%

10%

11%

12%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Culture and intellectual life

Morality and values

Employment and standard of living

Healthcare, pensions, andother social benefits

Western Europe Russia Don't know/Refused to answer

Vladimir Putin’s Russia has tried to portray itself as a defender of Christendom and traditional European values. What is your

opinion of this view of Russia?

31

8%

44%

27%

21%

It is true — on this issue at least, Russia has taken the side of traditional European values.

It is not really true — Russia is just cynically pretending to stand up for traditional European values while pursuing its own interests.

It is not true at all — it demonstrates Russia's rejection of modern Western values.


Which of the following statements comes closest to your view of Russia and Putin as you consider these changes in European

culture?

32

21%

40%

22%

17%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45% Russia and Putin can be alliesagainst an EU that is pushing usto abandon our values.

I wish Russia could be an ally,but I don't trust Putin. Somecooperation would be possible,but I would be very careful.

Regardless of my disagreementwith some EU policies, I don'tthink Russia should have anyinfluence over how EU policiesare made.


(For those who answered that it is true that Russia is defending European values, n=84)

What should be the role of the Russian language in Lithuania today?

3%

33%

40%

22%

2% It should be an officiallanguage in addition toLithuanian language.

It should be arecognized officialminority language.

It should have anunofficial role, but nota formal one.

It should have no roleat all.


33

Do you think Russian language is a basis of discrimination in Lithuania?

34

3%

10%

17%

68%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Yes, Russian language is a basis ofdiscrimination.

Sometimes Russian language can be abasis of dicrimination.

Russian language is not a basis ofdiscrimination in Lithuania but thelanguage you speak sometimes does

make things easier or harder.

No, Russian language is not a basis ofdiscrimination in Lithuania.


Foreign Relations and Foreign Influence

How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Lithuania’s interests are best served by maintaining

strong relations with:

36

64%

55%

51%

34%

14%

14%

33%

40%

41%

51%

47%

44%

1%

3%

4%

10%

23%

23%

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

12%

11%

2%

3%

4%

3%

4%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

European Union

Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark)

NATO

United States

Russia

China

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer

Why do you think our country’s interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with Russia?

37

34%

18%

8%

8%

7%

5%

4%

2%

11%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Russia is close and dangerous - we must keepon good terms to protect ourselves.

Russia is our biggest export market.

Russians are our brothers.

Russia is our main energy provider.

Russia is the biggest investor in Lithuania.

Russia is the only country capable of standingup to the West.

Russia is our protector throughout history.

Russia is our true ally and guarantor ofnational borders and sovereignty.

Other


(Among those who strongly agree that Lithuania should maintain strong relations with Russia, n=141)

In your opinion, what has the European Union’s impact on the following issues been?

38

31%

26%

25%

24%

20%

17%

13%

52%

51%

53%

50%

46%

46%

32%

13%

17%

16%

18%

23%

26%

20%

1%

2%

1%

3%

6%

5%

22%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

7%

3%

5%

5%

5%

5%

4%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

European stability/security

Democratic governance and rule of law

International influence

Political and socialindependence and

sovereignty

Local businesses

Traditional values andway of life

Prices of goods and services

Very positive Somewhat positive Neutral Somewhat negative Very negative Don't know/Refused to answer

Which statement is closest to your opinion?

39

25%

42%

19%

8%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

The United States is a reliable partner forEuropean security, and its presence in Europe

contributes to peace and security.

The United States is a reliable partner forEuropean security, but European countries

should not be so reliant on the US for defense.

The United States has become an unreliablepartner for European security, and I doubt it

would defend our country in an open conflict.

The United States should not play a role inEuropean security, and in fact its presence in

Europe increases tensions and insecurity.


In your opinion, what is the biggest security threat facing our country today?

40

23%

19%

18%

14%

7%

4%

4%

1%

1%

1%

8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Organized crime/drugs/trafficking

Collapse of national political/financial system

Climate change

Non-military foreign interference (cyber-attacks,political/economic pressure)

Natural disasters

Open military conflict between countries/War

Regional tensions/Ethnic and religious conflict

Terrorism

Other

None


What is your personal view of NATO?

41

35%

49%

9%

2%5%

Very positive

Somewhat positive

Somewhat negative

Very negative


Regardless of your view on NATO as an organization, which statement comes closest to your feelings about foreign NATO

troops being stationed in Lithuania?

42

71%

15%

9%

1%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

I am happy they are here ensuring our security.

They were necessary at the beginning, but nowthey are having a negative impact on our society

and should leave.

They should have never been here, they makeus less secure.

I didn't know there were foreign soldiers here.


Which statement comes closest to your opinion about NATO military exercises in the region?

43

51%

25%

10%

10%

4%They are integral to maintain NATO'sreadiness to defend our country andshould continue.

They are necessary to maintain NATO'sreadiness to defend our country, but theyshould be less frequent.

They may be necessary from time to timebut they add to regional destabilization.

They are not necessary and serve only toaggrevate Russia.


To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Ukraine is a part of Russia’s sphere of influence; thus Russia has a right to

have a role in decisions made in Ukraine.

44

2%

9%

17%

66%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree


64%

20%

16%


45

Lithuania is one of a few NATO members meeting its commitment to spend at least 2 percent of its GDP on defense, while nations like Germany do not. Should Germany increase

its defense spending to at least 2 percent of its GDP?

Which statement comes closest to your opinion about why Germany should not increase its defense spending to 2

percent?

46

76%

12%

5%

4%

4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

That's their business. Germany can spendwhat they want on defense.

It could set off an arms race in Europe.

A larger German military could be athreat to our security.

Given their history, I would prefer theydidn't increase the size of their military.


(For those who stated that Germany should not increase its defense spending to at least 2 percent of GDP, n=203)

Demographics

Demographics

45%

55%

16%21%

32% 31%

15%

51%

34%

24%

56%

21%

<1%

9%

23%18%

29%

7%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%M

ale

Fem

ale

18-2

9

30-4

4

45-6

0

61+

Elem

enta

ry o

r le

ss

Seco

ndar

y

Colle

ge o

r un

iver

sity

Sing

le,

not

livin

g w

ith

a pa

rtne

r

Mar

ried

, liv

ing

wit

h a

part

ner

Divo

rced

and

oth

er (

used

to

bem

arri

ed)

No

inco

me

Up

to 3

00 E

UR

301

to 6

00 E

UR

601

to 9

00 E

UR

901

to 2

000

EUR

Ove

r 20

01 E

UR

No

resp

onse

/Ref

used

to

answ

er

GENDER AGE EDUCATION MARITALSTATUS

TOTAL MONTHLY HOUSEHOLDINCOME

48

Demographics

49

4%

20%

10%8%

2%1% 2% 2%

<1% 1% 2% 2%3%

2% 2%

28%

10%

1%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Uns

kille

d m

anua

l wor

ker

Sem

iski

lled

and

skill

ed m

anua

l wor

ker

Whi

te-c

olla

r (a

dmin

istr

atio

n, e

tc.)

Hig

hly

qual

ifie

d in

telle

ctua

l (la

wye

r, do

ctor

, te

ache

r…)

Mid

dle

exec

utiv

e m

anag

er

Top

exec

utiv

e m

anag

er

Hig

hly

qual

ifie

d in

telle

ctua

l who

is s

elf-

empl

oyed

(la

wye

r, do

ctor

, te

ache

r…)

Ow

ns a

sm

all c

ompa

ny,

wor

ksho

p, e

tc.

Ow

ns a

big

com

pany

, st

ockh

olde

r

Farm

er,

fish

erm

an

Earn

s in

som

e ot

her

way

Pupi

l

Stud

ent

Hou

sew

ife

Mat

erni

ty le

ave

Pens

ione

r

Une

mpl

oyed

(cu

rren

tly)

Oth

er

EMPLOYED SELF-EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED

Demographics

50

100%

<1% <1% <1%

86%

6% 5%1% 1% 1% <1% 1% 2%

98%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Citi

zen

Non

-cit

izen

pas

spor

t ho

lder

Non

-cit

izen

and

non

-pas

spor

t ho

lder

Refu

sed

to a

nsw

er

Lith

uani

an

Pole

Russ

ian

Ukr

aini

an

Belo

russ

ian

Latv

ian

Oth

er

Refu

sed

to a

nsw

er Yes

No

Citizenship Status Nationality Military Service

Demographics

51

100%

79%

39%

19%

10%

3% 3% 4%<1%

89%

8%3%

<1% <1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Lith

uani

an

Russ

ian

Engl

ish

Polis

h

Ger

man

Latv

ian

Ukr

ania

n

Oth

er

Latv

ian

Lith

uani

an

Russ

ian

Polis

h

Engl

ish

Ukr

ania

n

Ger

man

Oth

er

Language spoken Language at home

Demographics

52

2%

76%

12%

<1%9%

1%9%

59%

19%13%

1%7%

18%

59%

16%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Ort

hodo

x

Cath

olic

Chri

stia

n (o

ther

)

Mus

lim

Non

e

Don'

t kn

ow/R

efus

ed t

o an

swer

Very

rel

igio

us

Som

ewha

t re

ligio

us

Som

ewha

t ir

relig

ious

Very

irre

ligio

us

Don'

t kn

ow/R

efus

ed t

o an

swer

Ever

y W

eek

Occ

assi

onal

ly/o

nce

or t

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What is your religious affiliation? To what extend do you consideryourself religious or not?

How often do you go to orattend other religious services?

www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls

Center for Insights in Survey Research202.408.9450 | [email protected]

https://norstatgroup.com/

https://norstatgroup.com/

january 7–26, 2020 · 2020-07-01 · lithuania. lithuanian farmers and greens union. labour...

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