Electoral Institutions and Electoral Outcomes

January 26, 2010

Why Elections?

In representative democracies, their purpose is to allow voters to express their political preferences

Elections provide an opportunity for citizens to render a verdict on the past performance of their government

Elections have implications for who governs and what policies a government will pursue.

Questions

Millions of people vote. Why? Do voters have the capacity to cast an “informed

decision”? While many individuals do not appear to be sufficiently informed, they appear collectively to make sensible decisions? Why?

What choices do voters have? Many or few? Meaningful or not? Does it matter?

Why do parties gain or lose support? Are there “better” ways to elect a government? Are there “better” ways to have an influence?

What is it being elected?

Parties Candidates Ballot measures

Parliamentary Systems

Executive chosen by parliament which appoints not only the PM but the entire cabinet

Unicameral vs. bicameral Upper house is generally less powerful and not

usually elected. New elections can be called at short notice Party leaders are in parliament and generally

known

Presidential Systems

President is directly elected President appoints the cabinet Fixed terms

Consequences

Candidates play a more important role in Presidential systems

Conflict over policy is more likely to arise in Presidential systems because presidents must share power with the legislature.

Electoral Systems

Plurality (or first past the post) Single member (usually) Winner take all systems; seat awarded to candidate who

receives the most votes UK, US, Canada, India

Proportional Representation (PR) Systems Multi-member Use of Party Lists (ie. Netherlands) Single Transferable Vote (Ireland)

Mixed Systems Plurality and PR used to elect candidates in the same

chamber Corrective vs. Non-corrective

Closed Party List Ballot

Open Party List Ballot

Mixed-Member PR Ballot

Allocation of Seats in MMP

See IDEA website for details

Consequences

Plurality systems facilitate two party competition Plurality systems often create “manufactured”

majorities PR is associated with multi-party systems. Rules thus have an influence on how much

choice voters have.

Manufactured Majorities

New Zealand Elections (1938-1996)

National Labour Other Year Vote Seats Difference Vote Seats Difference Vote Seats 1938 40 31 -9 56 66 10 4 3 1943 43 43 0 48 56 8 9 1 1946 48 48 0 51 53 2 1 0 1949 52 58 6 47 43 -4 1 0 1951 54 63 9 46 38 -8 0 0 1954 44 56 12 44 44 0 12 0 1957 44 49 5 48 51 3 8 0 1960 48 58 10 43 43 0 9 0 1963 47 56 9 44 44 0 9 0 1966 44 52 8 42 42 0 14 6 1969 45 52 7 44 45 1 11 3 1972 42 35 -7 48 60 12 10 5 1975 47 58 11 40 34 -6 13 8 1978 40 54 14   40 42 2   20 4 1981 39 49 10   39 45 6   22 5 1984 36 39 3   43 59 16   21 2 1987 44 41 -3 48 59 11 8 0 1990 48 69 21 35 30 -5 17 1 1993 35 51 16 35 45 10 30 4 1996 34 37 3   28 31 3   38 33

Accountability: Can the Voters Throw the Rascals Out?

Plurality systems are assumed to promote greater accountability because it is easier for voters to identify who to blame/reward.

PR systems often produce coalition governments (shared power

Coalition governments may make it more difficult for voters to figure out who is to blame.