Jana Poljak

Zagreb, 22 May 2012

Preparation of National Reform Programmes in view of Europe 2020

Strategy and enhanced macroeconomic surveillance

Slovenian experience

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Beginnings of common policy coordination

• Treaty of Maastricht. White paper on Growth, Competitiveness and Employment – first attempt on common European structural policy coordination;

• Employment Guidelines – National action Plans, Joint employment Report, Specific Recommendations;

• Lisbon Strategy – Integrated Guidelines, common goals for the decade, open method of coordination, country specific recommendations, national reform programmes;

• Europe 2020 – European semester, reinforced coordination, combined budgetary and structural policy planning, national targets, national reform programmes and stability programmes prepared together, additional instrument for preventive surveillance of the economic and fiscal policies of its member states.

Greater transparency and a higher concentration of information going forward give reason to hope that the peripheral states will have a better chance of demonstrating their vigor in consolidating their finances => fiscal pact.

Europe 2020

3 interlinked priorities:

1.) Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation

2.) Sustainable growth: promoting a more efficient, greener and more competitive economy

3.) Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion

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5 headline targets:

• 75 % employment rate (% of population aged 20-64 years)

• 3% investment in R&D (% of EU’s GDP)

• “20/20/20” climate/energy targets met

• Less than 10% school drop-out rates and at least 40% of the population aged 30-34 having completed tertiary or equivalent education;

• Lifting at least 20 million people out of the risk of poverty and - exclusion

EU tools in support of Europe 2020

Single market relaunch

Trade and external policies

EU financial support

EU levers for growth and jobs

EU flagship initiatives

EU monitoring and guidance

Macro, thematicand fiscal

surveillance

Annual Growth Survey

Annual policy

guidance

Innovation Union

New Skills and Jobs

Digital Agenda

Youth on the Move

New Industrial

Policy

Platform against Poverty

ResourceEfficiency

Reinforced Governance

Fiscal surveillance

Macro-economicsurveillance

Thematic surveillance

Europe 2020 Integrated Guidelines (IG)

Europe 2020 five headline targets

Stability and Growth Pact

National Reform

Programmes

Stability and Convergence Programmes

Commission’s Annual Growth Survey EU annual policy guidance and recommendations

EU flagship initiatives and levers

National level

EU level

Council of Ministers

European Commission

European Parliament

European Council

Annual economic & social summit

January March AprilFebruary May June July

Submission of National Reform Programmes (NRPs) & Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs)

Autumn:Peer review at EU level

Autumn:Decisions at national

level

Debate & orientations

Endorsement of guidance

Finalisation & adoption of guidance

Member States

Annual Growth Survey

Policy guidance including possible recommendations

Debate & orientations

European economic semester

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MACRO MICRO

A. EU 2020

GOALS

INTEGRATED

GUIDELINES

FLAGSHIP INITIATIVES

B.ANNUAL GROWTH SURVEY - 2011

DRIVERS OF GROWTH and ACTIONS

ANNUAL GROWTH SURVEY - 2012 PRIORITIES

C. STABILITY PROGRAMME

D. NATIONAL REFORM PROGRAMME

E. Euro plus pact

Smart Growth Inclusive Growth Sustainable Growth

1. 3% of GDP for R&D expenditure 2. 40% share of population aged 30–34 with

completed tertiary education 3. Share of early school-leavers in primary and

secondary education must remain at 5.1%

1. 75% employment rate for people aged 20–64 2. Reducing the number of persons at risk of poverty

and/or social exclusion from 361,000 to 320,000

1. "20-20-20" climate and energy targets

1. Implementing a rigorous fiscal consolidation

2. Correcting macro economic imbalances

3. Ensuring stability of the financial sector

Macro-economic pre-requisites for growth

Mobilising labour markets, creating job opportunities

Frontloading growth-enhancing measures

4. Making work more attractive

5. Reforming pensions systems

7. Balancing security and flexibility

6. Getting the unemployed back to work

8. Tapping the potential of the Single Market

9. Attracting private capital to finance growth

10. Creating cost-effective access to energy

Innovation Union

Youth on the move

Digital Agenda for Europe

Resource Efficient Europe

An Industrial Policy for the Globalisation Era European Platform against Poverty

New Skills for New Jobs

1. Ensuring the quality and the sustainability of public finances

3. Reducing imbalances within the euro area

4. Optimising support for R&D and innovation, knowledge triangle

5. Improving resource efficiency and reducing greenhouse gases

7. Increasing labour market participation, reducing structural unemployment

MACROECONOMIC SURVEILLANCE: - Basic assumptions and projections of actual and

potential growth in the period 2011-2014 - Reference to the PS in the area of fiscal rules and fiscal consolidation - Indication of the planned structural measures and their impact on growth

THEMATIC COORDINATION 2011: - National targets to achieve five main objectives EU2020 - Bottlenecks to growth - Indication of specific measures to achieve these goals and overcome bottlenecks

- Objectives and assumptions of economic policies - Economic trends and forecasts economic growth - Deficit and debt - Quality and sustainability of public finances

EU LE

VEL

NA

TION

AL LE

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2. Addressing macroeconomic imbalances

6. Improving the business environment, and modernising the industrial base

8. Developing a skilled workforce responding to labour market needs and promoting lifelong learning

9. Improving the quality and performance of education and training systems

10. Promoting social inclusion and combating poverty

Pursuing differentiated growth-friendly fiscal consolidation

Restoring normal lending to the economy

Promoting growth and competitiveness for today and tomorrow

Tackling unemployment and social consequences of the crisis

Modernising public administration

CONTENT OF NRP 2012: - reflect the general guidance identified in the Annual Growth Survey - report on the measures implemented and planned to address the Country Specific

Recommendations - report on the measures implemented and planned to achieve the national targets

contributing to the EU headline targets - report on the measures implemented and planned to fulfill the Euro Plus Pact commitments

EURO

PLU

S PA

CT

CONTRIBUTING FURTHER TO THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES

FOSTERING EMPLOYMENT FOSTERING COMPETITIVENESS REINFORCING FINANCIAL STABILITY

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National policy coordination – Slovenia

• Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development • Independent Office – reports to the Government • Programe prepared on the basis of Slovenian Development Strategy 2006-2013

2005 National Reform Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals

• Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development • A comprehensive document – description of current situation and ongoing processes

2006 Implementation Report

2007 Implementation Report

• Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development • continuation of current form, no connection to finance, lacks indicators (124 pages)

2008 Lisbon 2.1

Implementation Report and new Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals

• Prepared by Government Office for Development• short term anti-crisis measures• Structural measures• Tables: review and evaluation of structural measures (18 pages + annex)

2009

Implementation Report and new Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals

• Prepared by Government Office for Growth and European affairs• Part of a new national policy coordination• Measures include financial aspect, indicators and target values• 42 pages + Annex

2010 EU2020

2011

National Reform Programme

• Prepared by Ministry of Finance• Supported by budget• Prepared together with stability Programme• Economic and social partners consensus

2012

National Reform Programme

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NRP 2011 evaluation

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Reform Implementation Evaluation

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Guidelines for National Reform Programmes

GENERAL RULES

NRP should:• Reflect the general guidance identified annually

in the Annual Growth Survey• Report on measures implemented and planned

to address Country-Specific Recommendations• Report on measures implemented and planned

to achieve the national targets contributing to EU headline targets

• Report on measures to fulfill the Euro Plus Pact commitments

• Include a macroeconomic scenario in line with that in the SCPs

For the planed measures:- it should be specified how they will be

implemented, by when, by whom and with what budgetary consequences

- they should be concrete enough to allow the Commission to asses their expected impact,

- they should be prioritised (frontloading)

TRANSPARENCY

COMPARABILITY

INVOLVEMENT OF CONCERNED PARTIES

EMPHASIS ON IMPLEMENTATION

ANNUAL UPDATE

EUROPEAN SEMESTER - DEADLINE

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Slovenia‘s strategic documentsSlovenia's Development Strategy 2014-2020

Slovenian Exit Strategy (until 2013) and necessary structural changes

Programme of Development Priorities and Investments

Programme of Development Priorities and Investments

National Reform Programme

National Reform Programme Stability

Programme

Stability Programme

State and municipial budgets, Funds of Health Insurance Institute and Pension and Disability Insurance Institute

State and municipial budgets, Funds of Health Insurance Institute and Pension and Disability Insurance Institute

Report on the Efficiency of Development Policies

Report on the Efficiency of Development Policies

Development Report

Development Report

Forecast of Economic Trends

Forecast of Economic Trends

Competitiveness Report Competitiveness Report

Stability and Growth Pact

EU 2020EU 2020

Expected changes in 2012

2011

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Preparation Process

First draft:

Ministry of Finance

Interministerial coordination

Second draft: Ministry of Finance

Government Board for Economic Issues

Presented to the Social Partners

Adopted on Government session

Presented to the Parliament

NRP

Sent to the European Commission

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Content NRP 2012-2013

1. Macroeconomic measures for fiscal stability

2. Agenda of reforms and measures

Smart growth: education, R&D, ICT, industry, administrative burdens

Inclusive growth; employment, social protection

Sustainable growth: transport, environment, agriculture

3. Simulation of effects of specific measures using the DSGE model

4. Public debate

Annex 1: Standard table for the assessment of CSRs and macro-structural reform in the NRPs

Annex 2: Report on measures to meet EU 2020 targets and other commitments

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Thank you!

Jana.poljak@mf-rs.si

Ana.jevsek-pezdir@mf-rs.si